黑潮海温异常的机制及其对我国降水影响的研究
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摘要
本文采用海温资料和NCEP／NCAR再分析的海平面气压场(SLP)、高度场、风场等资料，利用EOF、SVD、相关分析和合成分析方法，重点研究了黑潮海温异常的机制及其对我国夏季降水的影响。
对与黑潮海温异常变化关系密切的风场关键区及两者的相互关系研究表明：黑潮本身的风场和其源地北赤道流海域的风场异常对黑潮海温的影响仅限于同期及海温滞后1到2个月，而能持续影响黑潮海温异常的经向风场的关键区出现在赤道西太平洋(140-160E，5S-5N)，纬向的关键区则在赤道中太平洋(160E-150W，5S-5N)，且纬向关键区的强度和范围均大于经向，两者对黑潮海温的影响均能持续六个月左右。
考虑到赤道中太平洋风场异常与El-Nino及La-Nina事件关系密切，进一步的研究证实El-Nino及La-Nina事件与黑潮海温异常有着密切的关系。海温变化主要分为三个阶段：El-Nino(La-Nina)当年11月份-次年5月份黑潮海温正(负)异常；次年6-7月份出现反复；从8月份开始起重新建立正(负)异常。分析还显示影响黑潮海温异常的主要机制有：由赤道中太平洋西风异常而产生的PEA遥相关、夏季太阳辐射的加强、低纬向高纬暖水输送的增加及黑潮自身海表水的辐合。
最后分析了黑潮海温与夏季东亚大气环流及我国降水的时滞关系，发现：当前冬黑潮区域海温异常偏高时，后期夏季亚洲低压的强度减弱，西北太平洋副热带高压强度加强，而且位置西伸、偏北，梅雨锋位置偏南，长江中下游地区降水偏多，北太平洋冬季海域的海温分布呈+、-、+趋势(顺序为赤道中东太平洋、西北太平洋、我国近海)；反之亦然。
The chief content of this article concludes three parts.Among it ,the research of third chapter involve: use extended SVD and Correlation analyse between NCEP wind stress data in Pacafic and SST field of kuroshio nearly 50 years show that there are distinctly positive correlativity between lagging SST of kuroshio and zonal wind field in tropical Pacafic region . The best correlation occasion is on sst of kuroshio lagging for 5-9 month. The well correlation times persist for about six months and the incidence level is reach or pass 0.01.The meridional wind field which persistly impacting on sst in kuroshio region is near the west tropical Pacafic.the result also behave as distinctly positive correlativity. Afterwards we investigate the relationship between sst in kuroshio region and Ninoc, 4 region and integrate the front conclusion.As a resultjt display that the sst in kuroshio region persists for positive relevance during the course of El-Nino and inversely during the course of La-Nina. Subsequentl
y the synthetic fields of kuroshio region's SSTA in El-Nino and La-Nina years have proved the front outcome. Finally the article discusses the physical mechanism of meridional and zonal wind field's effect on sst in kuroshio region and think that justly the adjustion of macro- dimension wind field connects the two facts.
Study content of the forth chapter goes forward. Firstly we choose those El-Nino or La-Nina years which is excitated by the westerly abnormity in the equatorial mid-Pacific Ocean. We make sure that the the characters of kuroshio SSTA in those years are similar to the years of all the El-Nino or La-Nina used in the upper section. Followed this ,we try to find the variety reason of kuroshio's SSTA and the physical mechanism connects sst change of kuroshio and wind field in the equatorial mid-Pacific Ocean. Our conlusion is : during the coruse of the Nov in El-Nino year(start from the westerly anomalous ) to Apr of next year ,it is just the intensity of east Asian monsoon that influents the sst variety in kuroshio region .the heat flux is the bridge links the two facts. And the gene which affects winter monsoon is the PEA circumfluence. It also explain that the correlation between SSTA of kuroshio and the change of wind field in equaroral mid -Pacific is results of air-sea interaction ; However, when time comes
into summer ,the instance status of ocean is different from the last winter to next early springtime,the sea surface temperature turn into the definitive factor ,So the increase of heat flux in May to Jun month which is realized by absorbing more heat from the sun radiation results in the decrease of sst in kuroshio in the season of Jun-Jul .Finally ,During the Aug to Dec season of next year ,the sst of kuroshio is increasing again . it dues to the surface seawater's convergence in itself region.
In the last chapter ,we mostly investigate the relations among winter SSTA in kuroshio region and the East Asia summer monsoon atmosphere circumfluence and the summer precipitation in China of the subsequent year .The study gets something significative (omitted here).
对与黑潮海温异常变化关系密切的风场关键区及两者的相互关系研究表明：黑潮本身的风场和其源地北赤道流海域的风场异常对黑潮海温的影响仅限于同期及海温滞后1到2个月，而能持续影响黑潮海温异常的经向风场的关键区出现在赤道西太平洋(140-160E，5S-5N)，纬向的关键区则在赤道中太平洋(160E-150W，5S-5N)，且纬向关键区的强度和范围均大于经向，两者对黑潮海温的影响均能持续六个月左右。
考虑到赤道中太平洋风场异常与El-Nino及La-Nina事件关系密切，进一步的研究证实El-Nino及La-Nina事件与黑潮海温异常有着密切的关系。海温变化主要分为三个阶段：El-Nino(La-Nina)当年11月份-次年5月份黑潮海温正(负)异常；次年6-7月份出现反复；从8月份开始起重新建立正(负)异常。分析还显示影响黑潮海温异常的主要机制有：由赤道中太平洋西风异常而产生的PEA遥相关、夏季太阳辐射的加强、低纬向高纬暖水输送的增加及黑潮自身海表水的辐合。
最后分析了黑潮海温与夏季东亚大气环流及我国降水的时滞关系，发现：当前冬黑潮区域海温异常偏高时，后期夏季亚洲低压的强度减弱，西北太平洋副热带高压强度加强，而且位置西伸、偏北，梅雨锋位置偏南，长江中下游地区降水偏多，北太平洋冬季海域的海温分布呈+、-、+趋势(顺序为赤道中东太平洋、西北太平洋、我国近海)；反之亦然。
The chief content of this article concludes three parts.Among it ,the research of third chapter involve: use extended SVD and Correlation analyse between NCEP wind stress data in Pacafic and SST field of kuroshio nearly 50 years show that there are distinctly positive correlativity between lagging SST of kuroshio and zonal wind field in tropical Pacafic region . The best correlation occasion is on sst of kuroshio lagging for 5-9 month. The well correlation times persist for about six months and the incidence level is reach or pass 0.01.The meridional wind field which persistly impacting on sst in kuroshio region is near the west tropical Pacafic.the result also behave as distinctly positive correlativity. Afterwards we investigate the relationship between sst in kuroshio region and Ninoc, 4 region and integrate the front conclusion.As a resultjt display that the sst in kuroshio region persists for positive relevance during the course of El-Nino and inversely during the course of La-Nina. Subsequentl
y the synthetic fields of kuroshio region's SSTA in El-Nino and La-Nina years have proved the front outcome. Finally the article discusses the physical mechanism of meridional and zonal wind field's effect on sst in kuroshio region and think that justly the adjustion of macro- dimension wind field connects the two facts.
Study content of the forth chapter goes forward. Firstly we choose those El-Nino or La-Nina years which is excitated by the westerly abnormity in the equatorial mid-Pacific Ocean. We make sure that the the characters of kuroshio SSTA in those years are similar to the years of all the El-Nino or La-Nina used in the upper section. Followed this ,we try to find the variety reason of kuroshio's SSTA and the physical mechanism connects sst change of kuroshio and wind field in the equatorial mid-Pacific Ocean. Our conlusion is : during the coruse of the Nov in El-Nino year(start from the westerly anomalous ) to Apr of next year ,it is just the intensity of east Asian monsoon that influents the sst variety in kuroshio region .the heat flux is the bridge links the two facts. And the gene which affects winter monsoon is the PEA circumfluence. It also explain that the correlation between SSTA of kuroshio and the change of wind field in equaroral mid -Pacific is results of air-sea interaction ; However, when time comes
into summer ,the instance status of ocean is different from the last winter to next early springtime,the sea surface temperature turn into the definitive factor ,So the increase of heat flux in May to Jun month which is realized by absorbing more heat from the sun radiation results in the decrease of sst in kuroshio in the season of Jun-Jul .Finally ,During the Aug to Dec season of next year ,the sst of kuroshio is increasing again . it dues to the surface seawater's convergence in itself region.
In the last chapter ,we mostly investigate the relations among winter SSTA in kuroshio region and the East Asia summer monsoon atmosphere circumfluence and the summer precipitation in China of the subsequent year .The study gets something significative (omitted here).
引文
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[23] 陈锦年，青岛汛期降水与副热带高压、黑潮区域海一气热交换的芙系，海洋预报，1989．6(4)：16-20
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[2] 赵其庚，海洋环流及海气耦合系统的数值模拟，北京：气象出版社，1999
[3] 孙湘平，东海黑潮表层流路(途径)的初步分析，黑潮调查研究论文集，海洋出版社
[4] 袁耀初，刘勇刚，苏纪兰等，1997年夏季台湾岛以东及东海黑潮，中国海洋文集(12)，2000：11-20
[5] 许东峰，袁耀初，吉冈典哉，西北太平洋环流的季节变化的MOM2模拟，海洋学报，2000，22(增刊)：53-64
[6] 袁耀初，刘勇刚，苏纪兰等，1997年冬季台湾岛以东及东海黑潮，中国海洋文集(12)，2000：1-10
[7] Yuan Y C, Kancko A, Wang H Q, at al, Numerical calculation of the Kuroshio east of Taiwan and currents east of the Ryukyu Islands during early summer of 1996,In:Proceedings of Japan-China Joint Symposium of Cooperative Study on Subtropical Circulation System, Nagasaki: Scikai National Fisheries Research Institutes Publisher, 1998,97-110
[8] Yuan Y C, Liu C T ,Pan Z Q ,et al,.Circulation east of Taiwan and in the East China Sea and east of the Ryakyu Islands during early summer 1985, Acta Oceanological Sinica, 1996,15 (4):423-435
[9] Yuan Y C,Kancko A ,Su J L,et al, The Kuroshio east of Taiwan and in the East China sea and the currents east of the Ryukyu Islands during early summer of 1996, Journal of Oceanography, 1998.54:217-226
[10] 王惠群，袁耀初，东海环流的三维诊断、半诊断及预报计算，海洋学报，1997．19(4)：15-25
[11] 郭炳火，葛人峰，东海黑潮锋面涡旋在陆架水与黑潮水交换中的作用，海洋学报，1997。19 (6)：1-11
[12] Yuan Y C, Liu Y Q, Liu C T ,et al, The Kuroshio east of Taiwan and the currents east of the Ryukyu Islands during October of 1995, Acta Oceanological Sinica, 1998,17(1): 1-13
[13] Liu C T, Yang Y, Cheng S P, et al, The counter current southeast of lanyu Islands, Acta Oceanological Taiwanica, 1995,34(1):41-56
[14] 赵振国主编 中国夏季旱涝际环境场 北京 气象出版社 2000年1月 101～103
[15] 李永康，黑潮海温与我国汛期降水及东亚高空流场的统计分析，气象科学，1989，9(3)：263～275
[16] Yuan Y C, Kaneko A, Wang H Q,et al. Tides and short-termvariability in the Kuroshio west of Yonakani-jima. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 1999, 18 (3), 311～324
[17] 刘永刚，袁耀初，1992年东海黑潮的变异，海洋学报，1998，20(6)，1～11
[18] 潘华盛，厄尔尼诺现象与赤道西太平洋、印度洋、黑潮之间海温变化的相互关系分析，海洋通报，1997，16(5)22～29
[19] 李坤平等，1981-1983年黑潮弯曲利厄尔尼诺事件的个例分析，海洋学报，1992，14
(1)：5-10
[20] 陈烈庭，尔海黑潮与赤道尔太平洋海区水温的关系及青岛汛期降水预报，海洋学报，1983．5(1)：32-37
[21] 张耀存，厄尔尼诺现象与东海黑潮区及其邻近海域水文结构和环流的变异，海洋湖沼通报，1999，17(4)：123-130
[22] 丁良模 黑潮关键区的海面放热量对长江地区梅雨降水的影响 海洋学报 1992，14(3)：47～54
[23] 陈锦年，青岛汛期降水与副热带高压、黑潮区域海一气热交换的芙系，海洋预报，1989．6(4)：16-20
[24] 曲维政等，黑潮区海温异常分布与夏季7月黄河中下游地区的洪涝，海洋通报，1996．15(3)
[25] 李永康，黑潮海温与我国汛期降水及尔亚高空流场的统计分析，气象科学，1989，9(3)：263～275
[26] 徐海明，华南夏季降水与全球海温的关系，南京气象学院学报，1997，20(3)：392～399
[27] 余曼平，黑潮暖流与洞庭湖区汛期降水和洪涝的关系，气象，1999，25(9)：21～23
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