舟山海域海面风的数值预报
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摘要
群岛散布、水道纵横交错的舟山海域地处中纬度地带，具有复杂的地理环境和大气海洋现象，大风灾害天气频繁。舟山港具有作为国内及亚太地区国际航运枢纽港必需的辐射扇形地理条件。目前，舟山港已经成为石油中转储运大港，往来船只的增多，加大了舟山海域海面溢油风险；舟山海域也是各种鱼虾繁殖和栖息的良好场所，是我国海洋生产力最高的海域。而海面风是影响溢油油团漂移轨迹和养殖业的重要因素，因此，对舟山海域的海面风进行研究，建立适合此区域的数值预报模式，可为研究该区域海面风作用过程提供数值预报工具，使我们对近海区域海面风场作用中物理因子的影响程度有更定量的认识，并对物理过程和影响机制有更深刻地了解。
本文选择了当今最为先进的中尺度数值模式MM5V3作为数值预报模式，采用三层固定网格嵌套，选用其最新提供的30S高精度资料作为内层重点考察小区的地形资料。在高分辨率边界PBL参数化方案下设计5组试验方案，对几个个例风场进行模拟检验：控制试验、无感热试验、无潜热试验、无感热无潜热试验、无地形试验。通过模拟试验对比，以检验地形，感热，潜热对海面风风速、风向的强迫作用。最后选用T213资料，通过实时数值预报模式系统将个例B预报出来。
本文第一章绪论简单介绍了以舟山海域作为研究范围，以海面风作为研究对象的研究意义、现状及技术路线。因此第二章针对本论文的主要研究手段：中尺度大气数值模式MM5V3进行了评述，对本文所采用的模式系统，控制方程组进行了介绍，并重点穿插介绍为适合舟山海域海面风的研究，各模块所作的改进，为今后的具体应用提供研究基础。为分析方便第三章首先分析了海面风的物理机制，然后针对几个海面风个例进行了5组模拟试验，并对其结果进行了对比分析。在第三章分析结果的基础上，第四章采用由国家气象中心提供的T213资料，考虑所有因素进行数值预报，并对个例B的预报结果做了详细分析。第五章是本文的结语部分，总结全文，并对今后的工作提出展望。
模拟结果充分表明：
(1)感热和潜热的海气交换和动量交换(摩擦作用)对于海面风的发展和维持起着重要作用，潜热加热是海面风中最主要的能源，感热通量在一
武汉理工大学硕士学位论文
定区域对海面风风场有负面影响。
(2)风的增幅主要是由海面潜热通量所导致，感热通量的作用很小。
(3)地形作用相当于增加了地面粗糙度，地形压力梯度项与摩擦项地
叠加，相当于使摩擦阻尼作用增大，地形强迫作用使下边界层从上至下风速
减小，风向向左偏转。
通过数值模拟对比试验，分析了舟山海域海面风的结构和微观特征，以
及海面风与动力作用(复杂地形)和热力作用(海陆热力差异)之间的密切
关系。进一步利用国家气象中心提供的T213高分辨率预报场检验海面风风
场的数值预报效果，最后将其结果与实际观测作比较，为将该模式投入环境
(海流，海浪，风暴潮等)动力预报奠定基础。
ZHOUSHAN maritime space of archipelago scattering and gullet intervein lies in median latitude, which has complex terrain geographic and atmosphere-sea electrophoresis and has frequency gale doubtless weather. ZHOUSHAN harbor has radiate sector geographical conditions, which is indispensable to be an international ship hinge harbor in our country, intemation and Asia and Pacific. Now, ZHOUSHAN has been harbor of transiting and storaging oil. With increasing of coming-and-going ship, it's venture of overflowing oil in the offing is increasing, ZHOUSHAN area is the best place for all kinds of fish-shrimp breeding and inhabiting. ZHOUSHAN is sea area which fertility is tiptop in our country. Sea surface wind is important factor of influencing contrail of excursion oil and culturist So investigating sea surface wind of ZHOUSHAN and setting up numerical forecast model which fits this sea area can offer tool for study sea wind in this area and let us has a mensurable acquaintance ship of effect degree of physics factors which effect sea surface wind in ZHOUSHAN sea area and acquaint oneself with physic process.
The task selects the up to the minute mesoscale numerical model as our forecasting model and use thrice fixed nesting and terrain datum of down to dale (highest precision data of 30s) as our terrain datum in the endothecium. With highest respective boundary PBL parameter scheme, we devise five test projects: control experiment and sensitive experiments without sensible heat flux, without latent heat flux, without sensible and latent heat flux, without terrain. By contrasting these simulative results, the experiments check up the forcing of heat flux and complex terrain to sea surface wind. At last, case A selects T106 datum to forecast by using KZSY real time numerical experiment.
The first chapter introduces the signification of working over ZHOUSHAN sea area sea surface wind and state-in-art and technical route. The second chapter explains the mesoscale atmosphere model-MM5V3, remark the mode system and controlling equations and emphases introduce the upswing of every module in order to fit ZHOUSHAN sea area. The third chapter introduces the physical mechanism of sea surface wind firstly, then simulate five cases and contrast all results. Based on the third chapter, the fourth chapter forecast case A with T213 datum and KZSY test and analyses the result in detail. The fifth chapter sum up the article and view the work.
The Simulation results indicate:
(1) Exchanging of sea-air and force of dynamical and thermodynamic processes is very important to bring and maintain sea surface wind .SHF is mostly energy sources and LHF is negative effect in some area.
(2) Increasing of wind is mainly induced by SHF and affecting of LHF is very little.
(3) Effect of terrain increases ground rough and tonsure of terrain press and fiction correspond enhance frictional damp effect. The terrain effect force wind's speed reducing and wind's direction turning to left
With contrasting the experiments of numerical simulation the text analyses the structure and microcosmic character of sea wind in ZHOUSHAN maritime space and consanguineous connection between sea wind and action of dynamical and thermodynamic .The task gets the result of case A by using T213 datum of weather center and contrasts it with the actual sea wind .The task establish a foundation in order to use this mode in the environmental forecasting.
本文选择了当今最为先进的中尺度数值模式MM5V3作为数值预报模式，采用三层固定网格嵌套，选用其最新提供的30S高精度资料作为内层重点考察小区的地形资料。在高分辨率边界PBL参数化方案下设计5组试验方案，对几个个例风场进行模拟检验：控制试验、无感热试验、无潜热试验、无感热无潜热试验、无地形试验。通过模拟试验对比，以检验地形，感热，潜热对海面风风速、风向的强迫作用。最后选用T213资料，通过实时数值预报模式系统将个例B预报出来。
本文第一章绪论简单介绍了以舟山海域作为研究范围，以海面风作为研究对象的研究意义、现状及技术路线。因此第二章针对本论文的主要研究手段：中尺度大气数值模式MM5V3进行了评述，对本文所采用的模式系统，控制方程组进行了介绍，并重点穿插介绍为适合舟山海域海面风的研究，各模块所作的改进，为今后的具体应用提供研究基础。为分析方便第三章首先分析了海面风的物理机制，然后针对几个海面风个例进行了5组模拟试验，并对其结果进行了对比分析。在第三章分析结果的基础上，第四章采用由国家气象中心提供的T213资料，考虑所有因素进行数值预报，并对个例B的预报结果做了详细分析。第五章是本文的结语部分，总结全文，并对今后的工作提出展望。
模拟结果充分表明：
(1)感热和潜热的海气交换和动量交换(摩擦作用)对于海面风的发展和维持起着重要作用，潜热加热是海面风中最主要的能源，感热通量在一
武汉理工大学硕士学位论文
定区域对海面风风场有负面影响。
(2)风的增幅主要是由海面潜热通量所导致，感热通量的作用很小。
(3)地形作用相当于增加了地面粗糙度，地形压力梯度项与摩擦项地
叠加，相当于使摩擦阻尼作用增大，地形强迫作用使下边界层从上至下风速
减小，风向向左偏转。
通过数值模拟对比试验，分析了舟山海域海面风的结构和微观特征，以
及海面风与动力作用(复杂地形)和热力作用(海陆热力差异)之间的密切
关系。进一步利用国家气象中心提供的T213高分辨率预报场检验海面风风
场的数值预报效果，最后将其结果与实际观测作比较，为将该模式投入环境
(海流，海浪，风暴潮等)动力预报奠定基础。
ZHOUSHAN maritime space of archipelago scattering and gullet intervein lies in median latitude, which has complex terrain geographic and atmosphere-sea electrophoresis and has frequency gale doubtless weather. ZHOUSHAN harbor has radiate sector geographical conditions, which is indispensable to be an international ship hinge harbor in our country, intemation and Asia and Pacific. Now, ZHOUSHAN has been harbor of transiting and storaging oil. With increasing of coming-and-going ship, it's venture of overflowing oil in the offing is increasing, ZHOUSHAN area is the best place for all kinds of fish-shrimp breeding and inhabiting. ZHOUSHAN is sea area which fertility is tiptop in our country. Sea surface wind is important factor of influencing contrail of excursion oil and culturist So investigating sea surface wind of ZHOUSHAN and setting up numerical forecast model which fits this sea area can offer tool for study sea wind in this area and let us has a mensurable acquaintance ship of effect degree of physics factors which effect sea surface wind in ZHOUSHAN sea area and acquaint oneself with physic process.
The task selects the up to the minute mesoscale numerical model as our forecasting model and use thrice fixed nesting and terrain datum of down to dale (highest precision data of 30s) as our terrain datum in the endothecium. With highest respective boundary PBL parameter scheme, we devise five test projects: control experiment and sensitive experiments without sensible heat flux, without latent heat flux, without sensible and latent heat flux, without terrain. By contrasting these simulative results, the experiments check up the forcing of heat flux and complex terrain to sea surface wind. At last, case A selects T106 datum to forecast by using KZSY real time numerical experiment.
The first chapter introduces the signification of working over ZHOUSHAN sea area sea surface wind and state-in-art and technical route. The second chapter explains the mesoscale atmosphere model-MM5V3, remark the mode system and controlling equations and emphases introduce the upswing of every module in order to fit ZHOUSHAN sea area. The third chapter introduces the physical mechanism of sea surface wind firstly, then simulate five cases and contrast all results. Based on the third chapter, the fourth chapter forecast case A with T213 datum and KZSY test and analyses the result in detail. The fifth chapter sum up the article and view the work.
The Simulation results indicate:
(1) Exchanging of sea-air and force of dynamical and thermodynamic processes is very important to bring and maintain sea surface wind .SHF is mostly energy sources and LHF is negative effect in some area.
(2) Increasing of wind is mainly induced by SHF and affecting of LHF is very little.
(3) Effect of terrain increases ground rough and tonsure of terrain press and fiction correspond enhance frictional damp effect. The terrain effect force wind's speed reducing and wind's direction turning to left
With contrasting the experiments of numerical simulation the text analyses the structure and microcosmic character of sea wind in ZHOUSHAN maritime space and consanguineous connection between sea wind and action of dynamical and thermodynamic .The task gets the result of case A by using T213 datum of weather center and contrasts it with the actual sea wind .The task establish a foundation in order to use this mode in the environmental forecasting.
引文
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[4]黄立文LASG出站报告，2002，(未发表)
[5]黄立文，吴国雄，宇如聪，秦曾灏．海洋风暴形成的一种动力学机制，气象学报2001：59(6)：674～684．
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[2]黄立文，王献孚等．多开边界群岛海域溢油模拟的水动力模式．武汉交通科技大学学报，2000-24(4)：367～371．
[3]郭冬建、曾庆存．理想海域中台风引起的潮、流及波的分析Ⅰ开阔海域的情况．气候与环境研究，1997．2(4)323～332
[4]黄立文LASG出站报告，2002，(未发表)
[5]黄立文，吴国雄，宇如聪，秦曾灏．海洋风暴形成的一种动力学机制，气象学报2001：59(6)：674～684．
[6]Peoell.M.D. Evaluations of diagnostic marine boundary-layer models applied to hurricanes. Mon. Wea. Rev, 1980. 757～766
[7]廖洞贤、王两铭．数值天气预报原理及其应用．北京：气象出版社，1986．
[8]宇如聪，曾庆存，彭贵康，柴复新．“雅安[1]H.-J.and J.M.Bane. Gulf Stream and its Meanders in Response to Cold Air outbreaks. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 1997. 2606～2629
[9]Powers.J.and M.T.Stoelinga. A Coupled Air-Sea Mesoscale Model Experiments in Atmospheric Sensitivity to Marine Roughness. Mon. Wea. Rev., 2000. 128:202～228.
[10]Isozaki I and I Uji. Numerical model of marine surface winds and its application to the predication of ocean wind waves. Papers in Meterology and Geophysics, 1974. 25(3): 7～231
[11]寿绍文．中尺度天气动力学．北京：气象出版社，1993
[12]Cardone V J, D B Ross and M Ahrens. An experiment in forecasting hurricane generated sea states. In: Proceedings of 11th Technical Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology,1977. 13～16,
[13]John Shapley Gray．UNIX进程间通信(第二版)．北京：电子工业出版社，2001．1～13
[14]陈莉君编著．LINUX系统操作系统内核分析．北京：人民邮电出版社，2000．233～261
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