中国贸易失衡问题
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摘要
本论文从跨时贸易理论出发，通过理论分析和计量分析找到了影响我国跨时比较优势和跨时消费偏好的决定因素及其背后的传导机制。本论文通过贸易失衡历史的国际比较找到了各国经常账户顺差、逆差转换背后的原因，并通过贸易失衡结构的国际比较得出了我国贸易失衡的一般性与特殊性。本论文还分析了我国贸易失衡的经济效应，并提出了针对调整我国跨时比较优势和跨时消费偏好的治理意见。
我国持续的贸易顺差始于1994年，持续至今近二十年的历史。以中国和其他亚洲国家为主的、持续的贸易顺差与美国、欧洲国家持续的贸易逆差一起构成了世界经济的失衡。中国的贸易失衡是世界经济失衡的一部分，除因受亚洲金融危机和中国入世的影响的短暂几年外，我国的贸易顺差持续增长。尤其2005年，贸易顺差加速增长，较上年增长了218%。2005年也是中国“双顺差”格局的一个转折点，2005年前中国主要是资本项目顺差，2005年后主要表现为经常项目顺差，其中最主要的又是贸易顺差。自2009年开始，我国贸易失衡的总体规模呈下降趋势但仍然保持较大顺差。
贸易失衡并不是我国特有的现象，根据跨时贸易理论，一国贸易顺差、逆差的转换主要在于跨时比较优势和跨时消费偏好。随着国家经济特征、产业结构、国际分工、金融发展水平和社会保障程度等的变化，一国的跨时比较优势和居民的跨时消费偏好会发生改变。英国、美国、德国、日本的贸易顺差时期都是其具有当期生产的比较优势的时期，而贸易逆差时期都是其具有未来生产的比较优势的时期。
我国的贸易失衡表现为加工贸易比重过大；外资企业在加工贸易中占主导地位；产品结构升级和产业升级缓慢；能源需求和消耗过大，环境恶化；贸易失衡的对象过于集中；服务贸易滞后。与英国和美国历史上的贸易失衡相比，我国的贸易顺差同样与人口的增长密切相关，但缺乏先进技术的支撑，同时，缺乏对国内消费的刺激，社会不平等加剧；与德国和日本相同时期的贸易顺差相比，三国对贸易的依赖程度都较高，但我国贸易失衡的商品结构较落后，产业升级不明显；除日本以外，几个国家贸易的国别结构都很集中。与所有国家不同的是我国加工贸易的比重过高，外商投资对贸易失衡的影响较大。
通过时间序列的协整分析发现，我国的贸易余额与实际利率、储蓄率、金融发展水平、产业结构、人口结构以及制度有着长期的协整关系。实际利率、储蓄率和产业结构对贸易余额的影响显著，且储蓄率和产业结构是贸易余额的Granger原因。我国的贸易失衡主要是储蓄率过高和制造业比重过大引起的。尽管，贸易的发展促进了经济增长与就业以及要素报酬的提高、优化了资源配置、丰富了居民的消费选择、并为对外投资准备了条件，但贸易失衡的弊端逐渐显现出来。贸易失衡的结果表现为我国资源耗费严重，对能源的波动敏感、外贸环境恶化、贸易摩擦增加、汇率持续升值、贸易条件恶化以及外汇资产损失。贸易失衡本身没有好坏之分，但是由于我国贸易失衡自身的结构性特点，贸易失衡是不可持续的。根据跨时贸易理论，我们必须进行产业升级、自主创新、大力发展服务业，提高未来生产率比较优势；加强社会保障、扩大内需，对外投资，减少对外贸的依赖。
The present paper from the intertemporal trade angle of view, finds the crucial factors to theintertemporal comparative advantage and analysis the conduction mechanism through establishingthe theory model and econometric analysis. The present paper reveals the causes that influence thetransformation of the current-account surplus to deficit by the historical comparison of internationaltrade imbalances and shows the generality and particularity of China's trade imbalance structure bythe international comparison. The present paper also analyzes the economic effect of China's tradeimbalance, and put forwards the adjustment opinion to change the intertemporal comparativeadvantage of China.
China's persistent trade surplus began in1994and has lasted up to now for nearly twenty years.Persistent trade surplus existing in China and other Asian countries and trade deficit continuing inthe United States and European countries together constitute the world economy imbalance. China’strade imbalance is a part of the world economy imbalance. China's trade surplus sustains growthexcepting the years when the Asian financial crisis occurred and China accessed to the WTO.Especially in2005, trade surplus growth accelerated relatively going up218%than last year. Theyear of2005is a turning point of China’s “double surplus" pattern. Before2005, China mainly hadcapital account surplus. After2005, China mainly had the current account surplus, in which thetrade surplus is the most important part. Since the beginning of2009, the overall size of China'strade imbalance began to decrease.
Trade imbalance exists not only in China. According to intertemporal trade theory,intertemporal comparative advantage and Intertemporal consume preference influence theconversion of trade surplus or deficits. Intertemporal comparative advantage will change wheneconomic characteristics, industry structure and international division change. Trade history ofUnited Kingdom, United States, Germany and Japan also experienced the conversion of tradesurplus or deficits. When they have a deficit, they have future productive comparative advantage.When they have a surplus, they have present productive comparative advantage.
China's trade surplus displays several characteristics：The proportion of processing trade is toolarge; foreign capital enterprises dominate the foreign trade; the upgrading speed of productstructure and industry structure is slowly；Energy demand and consumption is too large with thedeterioration of the environment; trade imbalance objects are concentrated; the development ofservice trade lags. Comparing to the trade surplus of the United Kingdom and the United States,China's trade surplus is also closely related with population growth, but lacking of advancedtechnology support system. At the same time, China is lack of stimulation of domestic consumptionand social inequality grows. Comparing to the trade surplus of Japan and German in the sameperiod, trade dependence rate of the three counties is high but China’s commodity structure is more backward and industrial upgrading is not obvious. Trade market structure of the countries isconcentrated except Japanese. Different from other countries, China's proportion of processing tradeis exorbitant and FDI influences the trade imbalance seriously.
Though the co-integration analysis based on the time series, we find the balance of trade inChina and real interest rate, financial development, saving rate, industry structure, populationstructure and insitution have co-integration relationship in a long-term. The real interest rates,saving rate and industry structure have significant influence to the balance of trade. Saving rate andindustry structure is the granger cause of the trade balance. Although, trades has many positiveeffects such as promoting the development of economic and employment, also raising the elementpayment and optimizing the allocation of resources and extending people's consumption choice andpreparing conditions for foreign investment. But the trade imbalance malpractice is becoming moreand more obvious. The performance of Trade imbalance is wasting resource and sensitive toenergy fluctuations and deterioration of the terms of trade, increasing trade friction and appreciationof exchange rate, loss of foreign exchange assets etc. Trade imbalance is neither good nor bad, butdue to the structural characteristics of China’s trade imbalance, it is not sustainable. According tointertemporal trade theory, we should solve advance the structure of industry and develop serviceindustry relying on innovation to improve productivity in the future. We also should expanddomestic demand and invest abroad to slow down the dependence on external markets.
我国持续的贸易顺差始于1994年，持续至今近二十年的历史。以中国和其他亚洲国家为主的、持续的贸易顺差与美国、欧洲国家持续的贸易逆差一起构成了世界经济的失衡。中国的贸易失衡是世界经济失衡的一部分，除因受亚洲金融危机和中国入世的影响的短暂几年外，我国的贸易顺差持续增长。尤其2005年，贸易顺差加速增长，较上年增长了218%。2005年也是中国“双顺差”格局的一个转折点，2005年前中国主要是资本项目顺差，2005年后主要表现为经常项目顺差，其中最主要的又是贸易顺差。自2009年开始，我国贸易失衡的总体规模呈下降趋势但仍然保持较大顺差。
贸易失衡并不是我国特有的现象，根据跨时贸易理论，一国贸易顺差、逆差的转换主要在于跨时比较优势和跨时消费偏好。随着国家经济特征、产业结构、国际分工、金融发展水平和社会保障程度等的变化，一国的跨时比较优势和居民的跨时消费偏好会发生改变。英国、美国、德国、日本的贸易顺差时期都是其具有当期生产的比较优势的时期，而贸易逆差时期都是其具有未来生产的比较优势的时期。
我国的贸易失衡表现为加工贸易比重过大；外资企业在加工贸易中占主导地位；产品结构升级和产业升级缓慢；能源需求和消耗过大，环境恶化；贸易失衡的对象过于集中；服务贸易滞后。与英国和美国历史上的贸易失衡相比，我国的贸易顺差同样与人口的增长密切相关，但缺乏先进技术的支撑，同时，缺乏对国内消费的刺激，社会不平等加剧；与德国和日本相同时期的贸易顺差相比，三国对贸易的依赖程度都较高，但我国贸易失衡的商品结构较落后，产业升级不明显；除日本以外，几个国家贸易的国别结构都很集中。与所有国家不同的是我国加工贸易的比重过高，外商投资对贸易失衡的影响较大。
通过时间序列的协整分析发现，我国的贸易余额与实际利率、储蓄率、金融发展水平、产业结构、人口结构以及制度有着长期的协整关系。实际利率、储蓄率和产业结构对贸易余额的影响显著，且储蓄率和产业结构是贸易余额的Granger原因。我国的贸易失衡主要是储蓄率过高和制造业比重过大引起的。尽管，贸易的发展促进了经济增长与就业以及要素报酬的提高、优化了资源配置、丰富了居民的消费选择、并为对外投资准备了条件，但贸易失衡的弊端逐渐显现出来。贸易失衡的结果表现为我国资源耗费严重，对能源的波动敏感、外贸环境恶化、贸易摩擦增加、汇率持续升值、贸易条件恶化以及外汇资产损失。贸易失衡本身没有好坏之分，但是由于我国贸易失衡自身的结构性特点，贸易失衡是不可持续的。根据跨时贸易理论，我们必须进行产业升级、自主创新、大力发展服务业，提高未来生产率比较优势；加强社会保障、扩大内需，对外投资，减少对外贸的依赖。
The present paper from the intertemporal trade angle of view, finds the crucial factors to theintertemporal comparative advantage and analysis the conduction mechanism through establishingthe theory model and econometric analysis. The present paper reveals the causes that influence thetransformation of the current-account surplus to deficit by the historical comparison of internationaltrade imbalances and shows the generality and particularity of China's trade imbalance structure bythe international comparison. The present paper also analyzes the economic effect of China's tradeimbalance, and put forwards the adjustment opinion to change the intertemporal comparativeadvantage of China.
China's persistent trade surplus began in1994and has lasted up to now for nearly twenty years.Persistent trade surplus existing in China and other Asian countries and trade deficit continuing inthe United States and European countries together constitute the world economy imbalance. China’strade imbalance is a part of the world economy imbalance. China's trade surplus sustains growthexcepting the years when the Asian financial crisis occurred and China accessed to the WTO.Especially in2005, trade surplus growth accelerated relatively going up218%than last year. Theyear of2005is a turning point of China’s “double surplus" pattern. Before2005, China mainly hadcapital account surplus. After2005, China mainly had the current account surplus, in which thetrade surplus is the most important part. Since the beginning of2009, the overall size of China'strade imbalance began to decrease.
Trade imbalance exists not only in China. According to intertemporal trade theory,intertemporal comparative advantage and Intertemporal consume preference influence theconversion of trade surplus or deficits. Intertemporal comparative advantage will change wheneconomic characteristics, industry structure and international division change. Trade history ofUnited Kingdom, United States, Germany and Japan also experienced the conversion of tradesurplus or deficits. When they have a deficit, they have future productive comparative advantage.When they have a surplus, they have present productive comparative advantage.
China's trade surplus displays several characteristics：The proportion of processing trade is toolarge; foreign capital enterprises dominate the foreign trade; the upgrading speed of productstructure and industry structure is slowly；Energy demand and consumption is too large with thedeterioration of the environment; trade imbalance objects are concentrated; the development ofservice trade lags. Comparing to the trade surplus of the United Kingdom and the United States,China's trade surplus is also closely related with population growth, but lacking of advancedtechnology support system. At the same time, China is lack of stimulation of domestic consumptionand social inequality grows. Comparing to the trade surplus of Japan and German in the sameperiod, trade dependence rate of the three counties is high but China’s commodity structure is more backward and industrial upgrading is not obvious. Trade market structure of the countries isconcentrated except Japanese. Different from other countries, China's proportion of processing tradeis exorbitant and FDI influences the trade imbalance seriously.
Though the co-integration analysis based on the time series, we find the balance of trade inChina and real interest rate, financial development, saving rate, industry structure, populationstructure and insitution have co-integration relationship in a long-term. The real interest rates,saving rate and industry structure have significant influence to the balance of trade. Saving rate andindustry structure is the granger cause of the trade balance. Although, trades has many positiveeffects such as promoting the development of economic and employment, also raising the elementpayment and optimizing the allocation of resources and extending people's consumption choice andpreparing conditions for foreign investment. But the trade imbalance malpractice is becoming moreand more obvious. The performance of Trade imbalance is wasting resource and sensitive toenergy fluctuations and deterioration of the terms of trade, increasing trade friction and appreciationof exchange rate, loss of foreign exchange assets etc. Trade imbalance is neither good nor bad, butdue to the structural characteristics of China’s trade imbalance, it is not sustainable. According tointertemporal trade theory, we should solve advance the structure of industry and develop serviceindustry relying on innovation to improve productivity in the future. We also should expanddomestic demand and invest abroad to slow down the dependence on external markets.
引文
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