异质性厂商国际市场进入方式的选择和政策支持研究
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摘要
发展外向型经济是当今各国经济发展的显著特征。对企业而言,国际化生产经营既可以扩大市场规模,又能够降低生产成本；对国家而言,发展外向型经济能够有效促进一国经济增长。企业是市场经济活动的主体,政府是市场经济秩序的管理者。在国际化过程中,企业从生产者的角度考虑的一个基本问题是,采用怎样的方式来进入国际市场能够获得最大的利润；政府从管理者的角度考虑的一个问题是,制定怎样的政策能够帮助企业获得更大的利润,从而使整个国家得利。企业与政府是在发展外向型经济过程中,紧密联系的两个主体。
发展外向型经济和实施走出去战略是中国经济增长的两个基本战略。改革开放三十年来取得的巨大成就,证明了两个战略的正确性和重要性。然而,在战略实施过程中也遇到了一些问题,特别是在近期国际金融危机的冲击下,中国出口增长受到了严重的影响。因而,我们需要对企业和政府这两个主体的行为进行思考,企业应该如何选择国际市场进入方式?政府应该针对每种方式制定怎样的政策?构成了本文分析的两个主要问题。
本文基于异质性厂商贸易投资理论的分析框架展开研究,在这个视角下揭示企业自身特征与其国际市场进入方式之间的关系,同时对政府出口政策和FDI政策效果进行分析,并用中国的数据进行检验。本文从文献综述入手,归纳概括了异质性厂商贸易理论研究的主要内容(第二章),并将其中异质性厂商国际市场进入方式选择问题作为本文的研究对象,这个问题属于企业决策范畴。在此基础上,将政府贸易政策和FDI政策纳入到异质性厂商贸易理论框架中进行分析,这个问题属于政府决策范畴。在企业决策问题研究上,我们先做理论分析(第三章),探讨异质性企业如何在出口、水平FDI和垂直FDI三种方式之间进行选择,然后用中国的数据对理论结论进行检验(第六章)。在政府决策问题研究上,我们同样先做理论分析(第四章和第五章),分析不同政策在异质性厂商出口和对外直接投资过程中的有效性,之后用中国的数据进行实证检验(第七章和第八章)。最后,我们将每章的结论归纳概括得到全文的结论(第九章)。
本文的主要结论认为,对企业而言,企业需要根据自己的生产率水平来选择相应的市场进入方式。首先,要确定本企业生产率水平在本行业所有厂商中所处的位置。如果处于上游水平,可以选择对外投资；若处于中游水平,则可以选择出口；若处于下游水平,则仅适合在国内生产销售。其次,企业想要改变自身的类型,从事更复杂的生产经营活动,就必须要提高自身的生产率水平。
对政府而言,首先,政府要激励和帮助企业提高生产率,这需要政府建立创新基金,增加R&D投入,增加企业科研补贴,建立国家创新体系,鼓励并支持企业技术创新,做好企业技术创新所需要的相关服务活动等。其次,政府要努力帮助企业降低东道国市场进入成本,包括与各个国家和地区建立良好的经贸合作关系,为想走出去的企业提供全方位的服务和培训。再次,政府补贴的使用要与企业异质性特征相结合,将补贴资源主要分配给盈利企业,资本密集型企业,以及中西部地区的企业。
Export-oriented economy is a notable feature of economic development of countries today. For one firm, international production and operation can both expand the size of the market and reduce production costs. For one country, the development of export-oriented economy is able to promote economic growth effectively. Firms are the main participators in market economic and the government is the manager of the market economic. From the perspective of producers, in the process of internationalization a fundamental question is what mode of market access can bring maximum profit for firms when accessing international markets. From the perspective of the manager, one question for him is what kind of policies made by government can help firms to gain more profit, which can also benefit the country. Firms and the government are closely linked in the process of development export-oriented economy.
The development of export-oriented economy and implementation of the strategy of going out are two basic strategies of China's economic growth. The great achievements prove the correctness and importance of the two strategies in the past three decades of reform and opening up. However, during the process of the implementation of the strategies we also encountered some problems. China's export growth has been severely affected by the financial crisis happened in the last two years. Thus, we need to reflect on the behavior of firms and the government. How do firms choose their mode of market access? How does the government make effective policies for firms? The two issues are the main topics that we are going to analyze in this paper.
Based on heterogeneous firms trade and investment theory, this paper reveals the relationship between firms'characteristics and their mode of market access, analyze the effects of trade policies and FDI policies as well as using China firms'data to test the theory conclusions. Starting from literature review, we induce the main research content of heterogeneous firm trade theory (Chapter 2) and choose the heterogeneous firms'choice of mode of market access as the object of this paper, this problem belongs to the scope of firm decision-making. On this basis, we put the government trade policy and FDI policy into the framework of heterogeneous firm trade theory, this problem belongs to the scope of government decision-making. On the problem of firm decision-making, we do first theoretical analysis' (Chapter 3), to explore how the heterogeneous firm choose production patterns between export, horizontal FDI and vertical FDI, after that we use the data of China to test the conclusions of theory (Chapter 6). In government decision-making research, we also do first theoretical analysis (Chapter 4 and Chapter 5), followed by empirical test using Chinese data (Chapter 7 and Chapter 8). Finally, we summarize the conclusions of each chapter to get general conclusions of the full text (Chapter 9).
The main conclusions of this paper are as followed. For firms they should select an appropriate mode of market access according to their level of productivity. First, a firm must figure out its level of productivity in all firms in the industry. If its productivity is at the upstream level, it can choose to invest abroad; if at the middle level, it can choose to export; if at the downstream level, it is only suitable for domestic production and sales. Secondly, it is necessary for a firm to improve its own productivity level if it wants to change the existing mode of market access and engage in a more sophisticated one.
For the government, First, the government needs to encourage and help firms to improve productivity, which requires the government to establish innovation fund, to increase R & D investment, to increase firm R & D subsidies, to establish a national innovation system, to encourage and support firms in technological innovation, to serve and meet all the needs related to technological innovation and so on. Secondly, the government should work hard to help businesses reduce the cost of accessing the host country, which includes establishing a good economic and trade cooperation relationship with various countries and regions and providing full range of services and training for those firms who want to "going out". Thirdly, the use of government subsidies policy should combine with the characteristics of the firm heterogeneity. Subsidies resources should be mainly allocated to the profit-making firms, capital-intensive firms, and firms in central and western regions of China.
发展外向型经济和实施走出去战略是中国经济增长的两个基本战略。改革开放三十年来取得的巨大成就,证明了两个战略的正确性和重要性。然而,在战略实施过程中也遇到了一些问题,特别是在近期国际金融危机的冲击下,中国出口增长受到了严重的影响。因而,我们需要对企业和政府这两个主体的行为进行思考,企业应该如何选择国际市场进入方式?政府应该针对每种方式制定怎样的政策?构成了本文分析的两个主要问题。
本文基于异质性厂商贸易投资理论的分析框架展开研究,在这个视角下揭示企业自身特征与其国际市场进入方式之间的关系,同时对政府出口政策和FDI政策效果进行分析,并用中国的数据进行检验。本文从文献综述入手,归纳概括了异质性厂商贸易理论研究的主要内容(第二章),并将其中异质性厂商国际市场进入方式选择问题作为本文的研究对象,这个问题属于企业决策范畴。在此基础上,将政府贸易政策和FDI政策纳入到异质性厂商贸易理论框架中进行分析,这个问题属于政府决策范畴。在企业决策问题研究上,我们先做理论分析(第三章),探讨异质性企业如何在出口、水平FDI和垂直FDI三种方式之间进行选择,然后用中国的数据对理论结论进行检验(第六章)。在政府决策问题研究上,我们同样先做理论分析(第四章和第五章),分析不同政策在异质性厂商出口和对外直接投资过程中的有效性,之后用中国的数据进行实证检验(第七章和第八章)。最后,我们将每章的结论归纳概括得到全文的结论(第九章)。
本文的主要结论认为,对企业而言,企业需要根据自己的生产率水平来选择相应的市场进入方式。首先,要确定本企业生产率水平在本行业所有厂商中所处的位置。如果处于上游水平,可以选择对外投资；若处于中游水平,则可以选择出口；若处于下游水平,则仅适合在国内生产销售。其次,企业想要改变自身的类型,从事更复杂的生产经营活动,就必须要提高自身的生产率水平。
对政府而言,首先,政府要激励和帮助企业提高生产率,这需要政府建立创新基金,增加R&D投入,增加企业科研补贴,建立国家创新体系,鼓励并支持企业技术创新,做好企业技术创新所需要的相关服务活动等。其次,政府要努力帮助企业降低东道国市场进入成本,包括与各个国家和地区建立良好的经贸合作关系,为想走出去的企业提供全方位的服务和培训。再次,政府补贴的使用要与企业异质性特征相结合,将补贴资源主要分配给盈利企业,资本密集型企业,以及中西部地区的企业。
Export-oriented economy is a notable feature of economic development of countries today. For one firm, international production and operation can both expand the size of the market and reduce production costs. For one country, the development of export-oriented economy is able to promote economic growth effectively. Firms are the main participators in market economic and the government is the manager of the market economic. From the perspective of producers, in the process of internationalization a fundamental question is what mode of market access can bring maximum profit for firms when accessing international markets. From the perspective of the manager, one question for him is what kind of policies made by government can help firms to gain more profit, which can also benefit the country. Firms and the government are closely linked in the process of development export-oriented economy.
The development of export-oriented economy and implementation of the strategy of going out are two basic strategies of China's economic growth. The great achievements prove the correctness and importance of the two strategies in the past three decades of reform and opening up. However, during the process of the implementation of the strategies we also encountered some problems. China's export growth has been severely affected by the financial crisis happened in the last two years. Thus, we need to reflect on the behavior of firms and the government. How do firms choose their mode of market access? How does the government make effective policies for firms? The two issues are the main topics that we are going to analyze in this paper.
Based on heterogeneous firms trade and investment theory, this paper reveals the relationship between firms'characteristics and their mode of market access, analyze the effects of trade policies and FDI policies as well as using China firms'data to test the theory conclusions. Starting from literature review, we induce the main research content of heterogeneous firm trade theory (Chapter 2) and choose the heterogeneous firms'choice of mode of market access as the object of this paper, this problem belongs to the scope of firm decision-making. On this basis, we put the government trade policy and FDI policy into the framework of heterogeneous firm trade theory, this problem belongs to the scope of government decision-making. On the problem of firm decision-making, we do first theoretical analysis' (Chapter 3), to explore how the heterogeneous firm choose production patterns between export, horizontal FDI and vertical FDI, after that we use the data of China to test the conclusions of theory (Chapter 6). In government decision-making research, we also do first theoretical analysis (Chapter 4 and Chapter 5), followed by empirical test using Chinese data (Chapter 7 and Chapter 8). Finally, we summarize the conclusions of each chapter to get general conclusions of the full text (Chapter 9).
The main conclusions of this paper are as followed. For firms they should select an appropriate mode of market access according to their level of productivity. First, a firm must figure out its level of productivity in all firms in the industry. If its productivity is at the upstream level, it can choose to invest abroad; if at the middle level, it can choose to export; if at the downstream level, it is only suitable for domestic production and sales. Secondly, it is necessary for a firm to improve its own productivity level if it wants to change the existing mode of market access and engage in a more sophisticated one.
For the government, First, the government needs to encourage and help firms to improve productivity, which requires the government to establish innovation fund, to increase R & D investment, to increase firm R & D subsidies, to establish a national innovation system, to encourage and support firms in technological innovation, to serve and meet all the needs related to technological innovation and so on. Secondly, the government should work hard to help businesses reduce the cost of accessing the host country, which includes establishing a good economic and trade cooperation relationship with various countries and regions and providing full range of services and training for those firms who want to "going out". Thirdly, the use of government subsidies policy should combine with the characteristics of the firm heterogeneity. Subsidies resources should be mainly allocated to the profit-making firms, capital-intensive firms, and firms in central and western regions of China.
引文
①见Bernard和Jensen(1999a; 1999b; 2001; 2002), Bernard和Wagner(2001), Aw和Roberts(2000)等人的研究。
②相关研究文献参见Girma等(2004),Girma等(2005),Fukao等(2006),Sato(2009), Head和Ries(2004), Kimura(2006), Wagner(2005)。
①本节相关出口统计数据来源于《中国统计年鉴2009》。
①中国对外直接投资数据来源于商务部《中国对外直接投资统计公报2008》。
②徐畅.去年中国并购额330亿美元,虎年央企将演重组大片[N].中国证券报,2010-02-01.
③孙韶华.中国企业海外并购渐入佳境[N].经济参考报,2009-12-31.
④中央电视台《半小时观察》,2009-05-27.
①厂商和企业在本文是同一概念,英文单词是firm,在理论分析中我们主要使用“厂商”,在实证和政策含义分析中,我们主要使用“企业”。
②刘刚.企业的异质性假设——对企业本质和行为基础的演化论解释[J].中国社会科学,2002年第2期。
③杨瑞龙和刘刚.企业的异质性假设和企业竞争优势的内生性分析[J].中国工业经济,2002年第1期。
④ Helpman, E. Trade, FDI, and the Organization of Firms[A]. NBER Working Paper No.12091, March 2006
① Wagner(2007)指出,尽管各个实证研究使用的分析工具和方法不同(包括使用logit模型、probit模型和尝试包含厂商滞后出口的贝叶斯修正法),但其大部分的结果都显示出这些要素作用具有稳健性。其中一些因素与厂商进入出口市场之间具有高度的相关性,所以厂商是否进入要由这些特征因素在不同时期的变化来决定。
②0.36是Bernard和Jensen(2004a)用美国数据得到的出口厂商存活率,0.9是Bugamelli和Infante(2002)用意大利数据得到的出口厂商存活率。
①这与Rose和Stanley(2005)得到的显著的货币同盟效应形成对比。
②他们没有将这种效应按照出口商类型(是由新出口商带来的还是由原有出口商带来的)进行细分。
③ Blalock和Roy(2007)将原来出口厂商在本币贬值优势条件下反而不从事出口的现象称为“出口之谜”(Export Puzzle)
①例如Rodriguez和Rodrik (2000),Greenaway等(2002),见Lopez (2005)微观和宏观的预测。
② Tybout和Westbrook(1995)认为这个途径对提高效率并不重要。
①许多文献发现出口商的研发水平较高,但没有发现出口决定和研发水平间的因果关系。相关案例参见Bleaney和Wakelin(2002),Roper和Love(2002)对英国的研究,Bernard和Jensen(1995)对美国的研究,Aw等(2006)对台湾的研究,以及Baldwin和Gu(2004)对加拿大的研究。
① Van Biesebroeck(2005)认为在实证分析中如果不控制自我选择将会放大新出口商的学习效应。
②相关例子可以参见Van Biesebroeck(2005), Baldwin和Gu(2003)。
③英国的数据表明被动决定出口和主动决定出口这两种方式都比较常见。
①例子参见Castellani和Zanfei(2007),Kimura和Kioyata(2004)。
②例子参见Girma,Gorg和Strobl(2004),Amold和Hussinger(2005b), Wagner(2005)。
①Helpman等(2004),及Kasahara和Lapham(2006)用对称性证明了均衡解的存在性和唯一性。
①包括先锋企业奖励,发展和扩展奖励,服务出口企业奖励,区域／国际总部计划,国际船运企业优惠,金融和财务中心奖励,研发业务优惠和国际贸易商优惠。
②2008年10月23日,双方签署了《中新自由贸易区协定》。
③包括中新双方签署的《经济合作和促进贸易与投资的谅解备忘录》,《促进和保护投资协定》,《避免双重征税和防止偷漏税的协定》,《海运协定》,《邮电和电信合作协议》和《成立中新双方投资促进委员会协议》。
④世界经济论坛2002年调查。
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②相关研究文献参见Girma等(2004),Girma等(2005),Fukao等(2006),Sato(2009), Head和Ries(2004), Kimura(2006), Wagner(2005)。
①本节相关出口统计数据来源于《中国统计年鉴2009》。
①中国对外直接投资数据来源于商务部《中国对外直接投资统计公报2008》。
②徐畅.去年中国并购额330亿美元,虎年央企将演重组大片[N].中国证券报,2010-02-01.
③孙韶华.中国企业海外并购渐入佳境[N].经济参考报,2009-12-31.
④中央电视台《半小时观察》,2009-05-27.
①厂商和企业在本文是同一概念,英文单词是firm,在理论分析中我们主要使用“厂商”,在实证和政策含义分析中,我们主要使用“企业”。
②刘刚.企业的异质性假设——对企业本质和行为基础的演化论解释[J].中国社会科学,2002年第2期。
③杨瑞龙和刘刚.企业的异质性假设和企业竞争优势的内生性分析[J].中国工业经济,2002年第1期。
④ Helpman, E. Trade, FDI, and the Organization of Firms[A]. NBER Working Paper No.12091, March 2006
① Wagner(2007)指出,尽管各个实证研究使用的分析工具和方法不同(包括使用logit模型、probit模型和尝试包含厂商滞后出口的贝叶斯修正法),但其大部分的结果都显示出这些要素作用具有稳健性。其中一些因素与厂商进入出口市场之间具有高度的相关性,所以厂商是否进入要由这些特征因素在不同时期的变化来决定。
②0.36是Bernard和Jensen(2004a)用美国数据得到的出口厂商存活率,0.9是Bugamelli和Infante(2002)用意大利数据得到的出口厂商存活率。
①这与Rose和Stanley(2005)得到的显著的货币同盟效应形成对比。
②他们没有将这种效应按照出口商类型(是由新出口商带来的还是由原有出口商带来的)进行细分。
③ Blalock和Roy(2007)将原来出口厂商在本币贬值优势条件下反而不从事出口的现象称为“出口之谜”(Export Puzzle)
①例如Rodriguez和Rodrik (2000),Greenaway等(2002),见Lopez (2005)微观和宏观的预测。
② Tybout和Westbrook(1995)认为这个途径对提高效率并不重要。
①许多文献发现出口商的研发水平较高,但没有发现出口决定和研发水平间的因果关系。相关案例参见Bleaney和Wakelin(2002),Roper和Love(2002)对英国的研究,Bernard和Jensen(1995)对美国的研究,Aw等(2006)对台湾的研究,以及Baldwin和Gu(2004)对加拿大的研究。
① Van Biesebroeck(2005)认为在实证分析中如果不控制自我选择将会放大新出口商的学习效应。
②相关例子可以参见Van Biesebroeck(2005), Baldwin和Gu(2003)。
③英国的数据表明被动决定出口和主动决定出口这两种方式都比较常见。
①例子参见Castellani和Zanfei(2007),Kimura和Kioyata(2004)。
②例子参见Girma,Gorg和Strobl(2004),Amold和Hussinger(2005b), Wagner(2005)。
①Helpman等(2004),及Kasahara和Lapham(2006)用对称性证明了均衡解的存在性和唯一性。
①包括先锋企业奖励,发展和扩展奖励,服务出口企业奖励,区域／国际总部计划,国际船运企业优惠,金融和财务中心奖励,研发业务优惠和国际贸易商优惠。
②2008年10月23日,双方签署了《中新自由贸易区协定》。
③包括中新双方签署的《经济合作和促进贸易与投资的谅解备忘录》,《促进和保护投资协定》,《避免双重征税和防止偷漏税的协定》,《海运协定》,《邮电和电信合作协议》和《成立中新双方投资促进委员会协议》。
④世界经济论坛2002年调查。
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