城市天然气输配管网及应用系统的风险评价及管理研究
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摘要
天然气输配管网及应用系统的风险评价及管理系统建设的目的就在于对所面临的风险进行评价与预测，将系统的风险程度控制在合理的可接收的范围内，并确定合理的事故应急措施，以达到降低系统风险发生的概率和后果的严重性，在风险评价基础上完善天然气输配管网及应用系统的风险管理。
本文通过对国内外风险评估理论的回顾和分析，结合无锡市天然气输配管网及应用系统的实际情况，选择出合适无锡地区的风险评估方法，对系统失效可能性进行评价，对失效后果进行评估，并通过风险等级的划分，对系统进行预防措施的研究，完成天然气输配管网及应用系统的风险管理规划。
本文分别建立了天然气输配管网及应用系统的风险管理体系。
首先建立天然气输配管网风险评价模型，分析第三方损坏、腐蚀、设计缺陷及材料缺陷等因素对天然气输配管网的风险影响，以管道指数风险评价法分析评价系统的失效概率及后果，确定风险程度，建立天然气输配管网风险决策控制系统。
然后分析无锡市天然气应用事故的原因，结合用户使用天然气的情况，建立天然气应用风险分析故障树，通过对天然气应用系统的风险评价，提出天然气用户在应用过程中的安全保护措施，对天然气应用系统进行风险管理。
最后以风险评价及管理体系为基础，进行软件开发，编制城市天然气输配管网及应用系统的应用软件。
In order to evaluate and forecast a risky system, risk assessment and safety management on natural gas transmission and distribution network and utility system is necessary. Some available emergency measures are determined to control the risk degree of the system within a reasonable scope. After that risk probability and aftereffect severity of the system will reduce. Based on the risk assessment, the safety management of natural gas pipeline network and utility system will be consummated.
By the theoretical review and analysis on risk evaluation both here and aboard, the operational situation of natural gas pipeline network and utility system in Wuxi is investigated. And then the evaluation of system failure probability and aftereffect is done with the selected reasonable and effective methods. According to the risk grade obtained, some preventive measures are proposed to reduce the system risk. Based on these researches, the risk management systems of natural gas pipeline network and utility system are built up respectively.
Firstly, the risk assessment model of gas pipeline network is set up. The risk factors such as the third-party damage, corrosion, bad design and material, are analyzed in detail. With the pipeline index risk assessment method, the failure probability and consequence of the evaluated system are received. After the risk degree is evaluated, the pipeline risk control and decision-making system is established.
Secondly, considering the current situation of gas users in Wuxi, the accident causes of natural gas utility system are studied. By evaluating the fault tree constructed, the safety control and risk management are put forward.
Finally, on the basis of the risk evaluation and management system, the related software is developed.
本文通过对国内外风险评估理论的回顾和分析，结合无锡市天然气输配管网及应用系统的实际情况，选择出合适无锡地区的风险评估方法，对系统失效可能性进行评价，对失效后果进行评估，并通过风险等级的划分，对系统进行预防措施的研究，完成天然气输配管网及应用系统的风险管理规划。
本文分别建立了天然气输配管网及应用系统的风险管理体系。
首先建立天然气输配管网风险评价模型，分析第三方损坏、腐蚀、设计缺陷及材料缺陷等因素对天然气输配管网的风险影响，以管道指数风险评价法分析评价系统的失效概率及后果，确定风险程度，建立天然气输配管网风险决策控制系统。
然后分析无锡市天然气应用事故的原因，结合用户使用天然气的情况，建立天然气应用风险分析故障树，通过对天然气应用系统的风险评价，提出天然气用户在应用过程中的安全保护措施，对天然气应用系统进行风险管理。
最后以风险评价及管理体系为基础，进行软件开发，编制城市天然气输配管网及应用系统的应用软件。
In order to evaluate and forecast a risky system, risk assessment and safety management on natural gas transmission and distribution network and utility system is necessary. Some available emergency measures are determined to control the risk degree of the system within a reasonable scope. After that risk probability and aftereffect severity of the system will reduce. Based on the risk assessment, the safety management of natural gas pipeline network and utility system will be consummated.
By the theoretical review and analysis on risk evaluation both here and aboard, the operational situation of natural gas pipeline network and utility system in Wuxi is investigated. And then the evaluation of system failure probability and aftereffect is done with the selected reasonable and effective methods. According to the risk grade obtained, some preventive measures are proposed to reduce the system risk. Based on these researches, the risk management systems of natural gas pipeline network and utility system are built up respectively.
Firstly, the risk assessment model of gas pipeline network is set up. The risk factors such as the third-party damage, corrosion, bad design and material, are analyzed in detail. With the pipeline index risk assessment method, the failure probability and consequence of the evaluated system are received. After the risk degree is evaluated, the pipeline risk control and decision-making system is established.
Secondly, considering the current situation of gas users in Wuxi, the accident causes of natural gas utility system are studied. By evaluating the fault tree constructed, the safety control and risk management are put forward.
Finally, on the basis of the risk evaluation and management system, the related software is developed.
引文
[1] 高雄伟，天然气输配系统事故个案分析及对策研究．上海煤气，2004．1，9-15
[2] 郭文军，江见鲸．城市燃气爆炸事故及其防治对策．煤气与热力，1998，18(3)
[3] 马跃东．城市管道煤气事故分析与预防对策．城市共用事业，2000，14(2)
[4] 王剑友．燃气输配系统事故统计分析及对策．煤气与热力，2001，21(2)
[5] 何淑静，周伟国，严铭卿等．城市燃气输配系统事故统计分析与对策．煤气与热力，2003，23(12)
[6] Aladinsky, Vladimir V., Makhanev, Valentin O., Key elements of an integrity management program for pipelines to achieve consistent reliability. Innovative Projects and Emerging Issues, 2004, 1369-1374
[7] 张琳，城市燃气管网安全管理体系研究．[硕士学位论文]，2006．1
[8] 何淑静，城市燃气输配系统风险评价技术研究．[博士学位论文]，2004．3
[9] 白帆，巢月华．无锡市城市天然气高压管道项目安全与评价报告．无锡市诺信安全科技服务有限公司，2004．12
[10] 刘军，上海市天然气安全供应体系研究．上海煤气，2004．6，6-10
[11] 严铭卿，我国城市燃气的发展模式．油气储运，2001．20(7)，10-12
[12] Biagiotti Jr., S.E, Ellis, B.D., Incorporating risk assessment into improved pipeline designs. Environmental and Pipeline Engineering 2000, 2000, 456-465
[13] Mario Pagliero, Strategic interaction on the UK Gas Transportation System: the St. Fergus and Bacton constraints. Energy Economics, 2003(25), 345-358
[14] 帅健等，埋地输油管道的断裂失效概评估率．石油大学学报 2001．25(2)，87-90．
[15] 宋东昱，天然气管网系统可靠性应用技术．石油规划设计，1998(1)，40-42
[16] 宋艾玲，梁光川，天然气管道可靠性评价技术．西部探矿工程，2006(7)，110-112
[17] 高杜生，张玲霞．可靠性理论与工程应用．国防工业出版社，2002
[18] 施哲雄．基于风险的管线完整性管理．压力容器，2002；19(11)：37-39
[19] 邬仲伟．风险分析与决策．北京：机械工业出版社，1987．7
[20] Mihell, James N., Coleman, David, Spoms, Ryan, Quantitative evaluation of indirect inspection reliability and pipeline reliability based on statistical methods. Innovative Projects and Emerging Issues, 2004, 1127-1133
[21] Bea, R.G., Ramos, R., Hemandez, T.; Valle, O., Risk assessment & management based guidelines for design & assessment of pipelines in the Bay of Campeche. Proceedings of the International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. OMAE, 1998.9
[22] 刘海潮，李垣，孙爱英，战略风险管理的理论方法及其发展．西安交通大学学报，2002．12，33-38
[23] 何淑静，周伟国，严铭卿．燃气输配管网可靠性的故障树分析．煤气与热力，2003．8
[24] 张鹏，油气长输管线的安全性、可靠性和风险技术的研究策略．石油工业技术监督，2000．9，5-8
[25] Xu,Liangbin,Chen,Guoming,Fuzzy reliability assessment for offshore structures considering inspection and maintenance. Proceedings of the International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering-OMAE,2003(2),163-169
[26] 刘雯，天然气管道的运行可靠性评价技术．大然气工业,2001．21(4)，94-97
[27] 陈锦灿，干丛．综合安全评价指标体系设计初探．中国安全科学学报，1993，3(S)：426-429
[28] Bjomsen,T.,Hagen,O.,Mork,K.J.,Reliability based pipeline design and integrity assessment. Pipeline industry on the verge Proceedings of the International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference,1995(2),540
[29] Gareth Llewellyn,Strategic risk assessment—prioritizing environmental protection. Journal of Hazardous Materials,1998(61),279-286
[30] Hopkins P,Transmission pipelines: how to improve their integrity and prevent failures. Pipeline technology. Proceedings of the 2nd international pipeline technology conference,1995(1),683-706
[31] 佘建星等，埋地输油管道腐蚀风险分析方法研究．油气储运，2001．20(2)，5-12
[32] Alamilla,J.L.,De Leon,D ,Flores,O.,Reliability based integrity assessment of steel pipelines under corrosion. Corrosion Engineering,Science and Technology,2005.3,69-74
[33] Batte,David ,Fu,Bin; Kirkwood,Mike G; Vu,Dan,Advanced methods for integrity assessment of corroded pipelines. Pipes and Pipelines International,1997.1,5-11
[34] Hicks,Ray; Ward,Clive,Development of a risk ranking tool based on quantitative methods. Innovative Projects and Emerging Issues,2004,2577-2586
[2] 郭文军，江见鲸．城市燃气爆炸事故及其防治对策．煤气与热力，1998，18(3)
[3] 马跃东．城市管道煤气事故分析与预防对策．城市共用事业，2000，14(2)
[4] 王剑友．燃气输配系统事故统计分析及对策．煤气与热力，2001，21(2)
[5] 何淑静，周伟国，严铭卿等．城市燃气输配系统事故统计分析与对策．煤气与热力，2003，23(12)
[6] Aladinsky, Vladimir V., Makhanev, Valentin O., Key elements of an integrity management program for pipelines to achieve consistent reliability. Innovative Projects and Emerging Issues, 2004, 1369-1374
[7] 张琳，城市燃气管网安全管理体系研究．[硕士学位论文]，2006．1
[8] 何淑静，城市燃气输配系统风险评价技术研究．[博士学位论文]，2004．3
[9] 白帆，巢月华．无锡市城市天然气高压管道项目安全与评价报告．无锡市诺信安全科技服务有限公司，2004．12
[10] 刘军，上海市天然气安全供应体系研究．上海煤气，2004．6，6-10
[11] 严铭卿，我国城市燃气的发展模式．油气储运，2001．20(7)，10-12
[12] Biagiotti Jr., S.E, Ellis, B.D., Incorporating risk assessment into improved pipeline designs. Environmental and Pipeline Engineering 2000, 2000, 456-465
[13] Mario Pagliero, Strategic interaction on the UK Gas Transportation System: the St. Fergus and Bacton constraints. Energy Economics, 2003(25), 345-358
[14] 帅健等，埋地输油管道的断裂失效概评估率．石油大学学报 2001．25(2)，87-90．
[15] 宋东昱，天然气管网系统可靠性应用技术．石油规划设计，1998(1)，40-42
[16] 宋艾玲，梁光川，天然气管道可靠性评价技术．西部探矿工程，2006(7)，110-112
[17] 高杜生，张玲霞．可靠性理论与工程应用．国防工业出版社，2002
[18] 施哲雄．基于风险的管线完整性管理．压力容器，2002；19(11)：37-39
[19] 邬仲伟．风险分析与决策．北京：机械工业出版社，1987．7
[20] Mihell, James N., Coleman, David, Spoms, Ryan, Quantitative evaluation of indirect inspection reliability and pipeline reliability based on statistical methods. Innovative Projects and Emerging Issues, 2004, 1127-1133
[21] Bea, R.G., Ramos, R., Hemandez, T.; Valle, O., Risk assessment & management based guidelines for design & assessment of pipelines in the Bay of Campeche. Proceedings of the International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering. OMAE, 1998.9
[22] 刘海潮，李垣，孙爱英，战略风险管理的理论方法及其发展．西安交通大学学报，2002．12，33-38
[23] 何淑静，周伟国，严铭卿．燃气输配管网可靠性的故障树分析．煤气与热力，2003．8
[24] 张鹏，油气长输管线的安全性、可靠性和风险技术的研究策略．石油工业技术监督，2000．9，5-8
[25] Xu,Liangbin,Chen,Guoming,Fuzzy reliability assessment for offshore structures considering inspection and maintenance. Proceedings of the International Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering-OMAE,2003(2),163-169
[26] 刘雯，天然气管道的运行可靠性评价技术．大然气工业,2001．21(4)，94-97
[27] 陈锦灿，干丛．综合安全评价指标体系设计初探．中国安全科学学报，1993，3(S)：426-429
[28] Bjomsen,T.,Hagen,O.,Mork,K.J.,Reliability based pipeline design and integrity assessment. Pipeline industry on the verge Proceedings of the International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference,1995(2),540
[29] Gareth Llewellyn,Strategic risk assessment—prioritizing environmental protection. Journal of Hazardous Materials,1998(61),279-286
[30] Hopkins P,Transmission pipelines: how to improve their integrity and prevent failures. Pipeline technology. Proceedings of the 2nd international pipeline technology conference,1995(1),683-706
[31] 佘建星等，埋地输油管道腐蚀风险分析方法研究．油气储运，2001．20(2)，5-12
[32] Alamilla,J.L.,De Leon,D ,Flores,O.,Reliability based integrity assessment of steel pipelines under corrosion. Corrosion Engineering,Science and Technology,2005.3,69-74
[33] Batte,David ,Fu,Bin; Kirkwood,Mike G; Vu,Dan,Advanced methods for integrity assessment of corroded pipelines. Pipes and Pipelines International,1997.1,5-11
[34] Hicks,Ray; Ward,Clive,Development of a risk ranking tool based on quantitative methods. Innovative Projects and Emerging Issues,2004,2577-2586