基于空间插值模型的绿洲地下水时空变化研究——以奇台绿洲为例
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摘要
地下水不仅是一种宝贵的资源，同时也是能够影响地表生态环境系统的一个重要影响因子之一。地下水的变化往往会引起整个生态环境系统的天然平衡状态的失衡和破坏。过量开采地下水，造成地下水水位下降，在世界范围内总的来说会诱发四大方面的环境地质问题：区域性地下水降落漏斗、地面沉降、海水入侵和水质恶化等。过量开采地下水使浅层地下水水位大幅度下降后，疏干了原有的沼泽湿地，水生植物与水禽等随之消失，使原有的景观受到破坏。在干旱地区浅层地下水水位大幅度下降，原有的绿洲会变成沙漠。同样，过量开采松散沉积物中的深层地下水，地下水水位将会大幅度下降，形成区域性地下水降落漏斗和地面沉降灾害。在滨海地带或有地下咸水的地方超量开采地下水，海水或成水将入侵地下水，造成水质损坏，减少可利用的地下水资源，严重影响工农业生产和居民生活。
本文在前人研究的基础上，以地下水超采严重的奇台绿洲作为研究区域，在对其地下水埋深动态特征等水文地质条件分析的基础上，根据研究区的实际情况采用GIS技术与空间插值相结合的方法从一个全新的角度进行探讨，以期在地下水动态变化研究中有所突破。
其主要研究内容为：
首先，根据各时段的特点，通过奇台绿洲地下水埋深状况的分析，并结合径流量、降水量、蒸发量、水质等方面，探讨得出影响绿洲地下水埋深变化的主导因子。
其次，在所收集的数据资料及实地调查的基础上，结合实地水文地质特征及GIS数据处理和模拟技术，分析近20年来奇台绿洲地下水水位变化特征及发展趋势，以期掌握地下水动态变化规律。
第三，根据地下水动态变化规律在地下水的开发、利用上因势利导，提出合理利用绿洲地下水资源的建议及意见。
通过以上讨论得出以下结论：
首先，从空间上，由前部分的观测点地下水的埋深变幅较小甚至出现上升的特点，这种变化在整个研究区整体水位下降的背景下表现明显。
其次，奇台绿洲核心地区的周边地区，其地下水变幅值变化剧烈，其总的趋
势是逐年下降的。·这种变化的原因与山前地区的地下水变化截然相反。初步说
明绿洲内部人类的农业用水量的巨大，加速了地下水水位的不断下降。
第三，其他地区从时间和空间的变化总的来说，相对与以奇台县城为核心
的重点开采区并不十分剧烈，表明这些地区的地下水开采相对与绿洲核心地区
相对较弱，这也同时说明其农业活动发展较慢。同时其地下水水位下降趋势也
出现向绿洲核心两侧地区扩散的态势。
第四:从地下水埋深的变化速度来看，地下水埋深的变化的速度随着不同
时间段，速度逐渐加快。
第五:通过相关分析方法，对影响奇台绿洲地下水埋深的影响因子进行相
关分析计算，得出影响奇台绿洲地下水埋深变化的主导因子为人为开采的结论，
并近一步的分析和讨论了人为开来对地下水水位变化的驱动机制.
Groundwater is not only a precious resource but also the one of important factors that affects the overground ecosystem. Groundwater's change often causes unbalance and damage to the whole ecological environment. In the world, overexploiting groundwater and making the level descend can induce four environmental and geological problems: regional growdwater filler, ground fall, seawater intrusion and water quality aggravation and so on. Overexploiting groundwater makes the groundwater level of superficial layer descend greatly, which dries the original swamp and wetland. Thus water-grown vegetation and water foul disappeared and the intrinsic landscape was damaged. In arid area, the great falling of superficial layer's groundwater can make the oasis desert. Similarly, overexploiting deep groundwater in loose deposit can also make groundwater level fall, forming regional groundwater filter and ground-descending disaster. In littoral area or that with ground brine, overexploiting groundwater will cause seawater
or brine intrude groundwater and make the water quality deteriorate, which reduces the usable groundwater resource and affects agriculture production and people lives seriously.
Based on research of predecessor, this thesis takes Qitai Oasis as research area that has the serious problem of overexploiting groundwater. After analyzing such hydrological geology as dynamic features of groundwater, according to the actual condition of research area, adopted the methods of GIS and spatial interpolation to discuss the problems, expecting to find some new rules in the research of groundwater dynamic change.
The main contents are as follows:
First, according to the features of each stage, analyzing the condition of groundwater burial depth, combined with runoff, rainfall, evaporation and water quality, the thesis finds the main factor affecting the groundwater burial depth of oasis.
Second, based on data and investigation, combined with hydrology
geology features there and GIS data processing and simulated technology, the thesis analyzed the groundwater level features and development trend in recent 20 years of Qitai Oasis, expecting to grasp the law of groundwater dynamic change.
Third, according to the law of groundwater dynamic change, find the best way for groundwater exploit and use, and put forward the suggestions and ideas to use groundwater reasonably.
Draw the following conclusions by the above discussion.
First, seeing from the spatial, the groundwater burial depths of piedmont change little and even rise. This change seems obvious against the whole research area where water levels descend.
Second, the change multitude of the vicinity around the core area change violently, and it appears the tendency of reducing each year. The reason of this change is apparently from that of groundwater in front mountain. The thesis primarily indicates that with the increase of agriculture water inside the oasis, the descend of groundwater falls further.
Third; other places do not change very greatly from temporary and spatial compared with the important exploit places with Qitai County as core area which shows that groundwater exploit of these places are weak than that of oasis core area and also shows that the agriculture activities of these places develop slowly. Meanwhile, the groundwater level descending takes the look of diffuse towards two branches of oasis core.
Fourth, seeing from the change speed of groundwater burial depth, it grows faster with different period of time.
Fifth, the thesis analyzed the influence factor affecting groundwater burial depth of Qitai Oasis by correlation analysis, drew the conclusion that human being exploit is the leading factor causing the groundwater burial depth to change. Moreover, the thesis analyzed and discussed the driving force for the above change.
本文在前人研究的基础上，以地下水超采严重的奇台绿洲作为研究区域，在对其地下水埋深动态特征等水文地质条件分析的基础上，根据研究区的实际情况采用GIS技术与空间插值相结合的方法从一个全新的角度进行探讨，以期在地下水动态变化研究中有所突破。
其主要研究内容为：
首先，根据各时段的特点，通过奇台绿洲地下水埋深状况的分析，并结合径流量、降水量、蒸发量、水质等方面，探讨得出影响绿洲地下水埋深变化的主导因子。
其次，在所收集的数据资料及实地调查的基础上，结合实地水文地质特征及GIS数据处理和模拟技术，分析近20年来奇台绿洲地下水水位变化特征及发展趋势，以期掌握地下水动态变化规律。
第三，根据地下水动态变化规律在地下水的开发、利用上因势利导，提出合理利用绿洲地下水资源的建议及意见。
通过以上讨论得出以下结论：
首先，从空间上，由前部分的观测点地下水的埋深变幅较小甚至出现上升的特点，这种变化在整个研究区整体水位下降的背景下表现明显。
其次，奇台绿洲核心地区的周边地区，其地下水变幅值变化剧烈，其总的趋
势是逐年下降的。·这种变化的原因与山前地区的地下水变化截然相反。初步说
明绿洲内部人类的农业用水量的巨大，加速了地下水水位的不断下降。
第三，其他地区从时间和空间的变化总的来说，相对与以奇台县城为核心
的重点开采区并不十分剧烈，表明这些地区的地下水开采相对与绿洲核心地区
相对较弱，这也同时说明其农业活动发展较慢。同时其地下水水位下降趋势也
出现向绿洲核心两侧地区扩散的态势。
第四:从地下水埋深的变化速度来看，地下水埋深的变化的速度随着不同
时间段，速度逐渐加快。
第五:通过相关分析方法，对影响奇台绿洲地下水埋深的影响因子进行相
关分析计算，得出影响奇台绿洲地下水埋深变化的主导因子为人为开采的结论，
并近一步的分析和讨论了人为开来对地下水水位变化的驱动机制.
Groundwater is not only a precious resource but also the one of important factors that affects the overground ecosystem. Groundwater's change often causes unbalance and damage to the whole ecological environment. In the world, overexploiting groundwater and making the level descend can induce four environmental and geological problems: regional growdwater filler, ground fall, seawater intrusion and water quality aggravation and so on. Overexploiting groundwater makes the groundwater level of superficial layer descend greatly, which dries the original swamp and wetland. Thus water-grown vegetation and water foul disappeared and the intrinsic landscape was damaged. In arid area, the great falling of superficial layer's groundwater can make the oasis desert. Similarly, overexploiting deep groundwater in loose deposit can also make groundwater level fall, forming regional groundwater filter and ground-descending disaster. In littoral area or that with ground brine, overexploiting groundwater will cause seawater
or brine intrude groundwater and make the water quality deteriorate, which reduces the usable groundwater resource and affects agriculture production and people lives seriously.
Based on research of predecessor, this thesis takes Qitai Oasis as research area that has the serious problem of overexploiting groundwater. After analyzing such hydrological geology as dynamic features of groundwater, according to the actual condition of research area, adopted the methods of GIS and spatial interpolation to discuss the problems, expecting to find some new rules in the research of groundwater dynamic change.
The main contents are as follows:
First, according to the features of each stage, analyzing the condition of groundwater burial depth, combined with runoff, rainfall, evaporation and water quality, the thesis finds the main factor affecting the groundwater burial depth of oasis.
Second, based on data and investigation, combined with hydrology
geology features there and GIS data processing and simulated technology, the thesis analyzed the groundwater level features and development trend in recent 20 years of Qitai Oasis, expecting to grasp the law of groundwater dynamic change.
Third, according to the law of groundwater dynamic change, find the best way for groundwater exploit and use, and put forward the suggestions and ideas to use groundwater reasonably.
Draw the following conclusions by the above discussion.
First, seeing from the spatial, the groundwater burial depths of piedmont change little and even rise. This change seems obvious against the whole research area where water levels descend.
Second, the change multitude of the vicinity around the core area change violently, and it appears the tendency of reducing each year. The reason of this change is apparently from that of groundwater in front mountain. The thesis primarily indicates that with the increase of agriculture water inside the oasis, the descend of groundwater falls further.
Third; other places do not change very greatly from temporary and spatial compared with the important exploit places with Qitai County as core area which shows that groundwater exploit of these places are weak than that of oasis core area and also shows that the agriculture activities of these places develop slowly. Meanwhile, the groundwater level descending takes the look of diffuse towards two branches of oasis core.
Fourth, seeing from the change speed of groundwater burial depth, it grows faster with different period of time.
Fifth, the thesis analyzed the influence factor affecting groundwater burial depth of Qitai Oasis by correlation analysis, drew the conclusion that human being exploit is the leading factor causing the groundwater burial depth to change. Moreover, the thesis analyzed and discussed the driving force for the above change.
引文
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[29] 徐建华．现代地理学中的数学方法[M]．高等教育出版社．2002
[30] 燕良东 地下水动态组合模型．硕士论文 2000
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[2] 程娟，孙淑云，聂建平．中国地下水资源的开发利用与保护[J]．水利水电技术．2003(5)
[3] 胡隐樵，左洪超．高原气象[J]．2003(6)
[4] 易秀．干旱半干旱地区地下水问题[J]．2001(3)
[5] 毕守海．全国地下水超采区现状与治理对策[J]．地下水．2003(2)
[6] 丁永建，秦大河，叶柏生，刘时银．陆地表层水贮量变化对海平面上升贡献的综合评估[J]．地球科学进展．2001(1)
[7] 马兴旺，李保国，程远．干旱区水土资源时空变化的定量研究[J]．干旱区地理．2002(2)
[8] 薛禹群主编 地下水动力学[M]北京．地质出版社，1997
[9] 李纪人．遥感与水问题[J]．1999(9)
[10] 王飞跃，吴军虎，王俊峰．赵小峰．热红外遥感技术在演马矿水害防治决策中的初步应用[J]．国土资源遥感．2000(6)
[11] 王洪涛，李永祥三维随机裂隙网络非稳定渗流模型[J]水利水运科学研究．1997(2)
[12] 唐钟华，朱伟武地下水时间序列分析模型应用特点[J]勘察科学枯术．1995(5)
[13] 赵延涛，姜宝良 基于BP神经网络的地下水水位预测[J]勘察科学技术．2001．(4)
[14] 奇台县水利管理总站．奇台县地下水动态监测年报．(2001年)
[15] 马军．中国水危机[M]．中国环境科学出版社．1999
[16] 刘杰，乐嘉海．二次曲面在空间插值中的应用及程序实现．水运工程，2002，343(8)
[17] 孙永堂，朱燕丽．空间插值方法及其在地下水数值模拟中的应用[J]．吉林水利．2003(3)
[18] 章光新，邓伟．二元插值函数在地下水位计算中的应用[J]．地下水．2000(2)
[19] 岳天祥，刘纪远第四代地理信息系统研究中的尺度转换数字模型．中国图象图形学报，2001(9)
[20] 李新，程国栋，卢玲．空间内插方法比较[J]．地球科学进展．2000(3)
[21] 陈述彭．地理信息系统导论[M]．科学出版社出版
[22] Husar R B, Falke SR. Uncertainty in the spatial interpolation of PM10 monitoring data in Southern California [EB/OL]
[23] 邱昕．应用Cokriging空间插值技术协同生成弱透水层流场[J]．国土与自然资源研究．2002(5)
[24] 宋儒．应用kriging方法研究格尔小河流域地下水位动态观测网的优化配置[J]．中国煤田地质．1997(9)
[25] 宫辉力．地理信息系统(GIS)在地下水领域应用的一些新进展[J]．工程勘察．1994
[26] 奇台县志[M]．新疆大学出版社1990
[27] IPCC. Change in Sea level[R]1996.
[28] 李玲，谷树忠，胡克林．都市地价空间分析方法及其应用．资源科学，2003，25(4)
[29] 徐建华．现代地理学中的数学方法[M]．高等教育出版社．2002
[30] 燕良东 地下水动态组合模型．硕士论文 2000
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