中国房地产财富效应的地域性差异及空间特征研究
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摘要
在任何国家,房地产业都是宏观经济的晴雨表。房地产业因涉及庞大的产业链条,其发展对推动国民经济增长有着十分重要的影响。如2007年次贷危机发生后,我国通过加大对基础设施建设及房地产业的投资,有力地刺激了经济复苏。其中,大规模的房地产投资是经济成功实现V字型反转的重要保障。然而,由此导致的房价持续上涨问题却一直困扰着我国学界和政界。经济、社会的健康发展首先应以提高绝大多数民众的收入和生活水平为最终目标,房价的屡创新高,在说明居民财富迅速增多的同时,也反映出我国消费率过低、居民消费水平增长缓慢等问题。高房价、低消费等经济问题经常被视为独立的现象看待,但通过深入研究可以发现,它们可以通过房地产财富效应联系起来。
国外研究证实,房地产存在显著的正向财富效应,即房价上涨能够刺激消费。不过,这一理论在我国似乎并没有得到印证。我国从1998年全面实施住房商品化改革以来,房价快速上涨,如果存在正向财富效应,人们的消费水平也应同步增长。然而,我国居民消费增长速度却远落后于房价上涨速度和经济的整体增速。这一矛盾现象表明,我国与发达国家的房地产财富效应很可能存在差异。因此,通过实证的方法研究我国房地产财富效应具有重要意义。此外,与欧美发达国家不同的是,我国经济地域性差异巨大。东部地区经济发达,人们的消费观念较为超前,类似于发达国家；而中西部地区相对落后,人们的观念较为保守,表现出典型的发展中国家特色。这种巨大的发展差距很可能导致房地产财富效应也存在地域性特征。同时,随着空间计量经济学的不断成熟,空间面板数据分析方法得到广泛应用,使得研究对象的空间相邻性对经济现象的影响得以充分体现。因此,将空间计量经济学应用到我国房地产财富效应的研究中,可以突破现有研究的局限性,以全新的视角得出结论。
本研究试图通过空间计量等实证方法,检验我国房地产财富效应的存在性,研究房地产财富效应的传递机制,分析我国房地产财富效应的空间特性和地区差异,解读我国存在的高房价、低消费、收入差距等社会现象。本研究共分为7章：
第1章为导论。首先,介绍研究背景,理论及实际意义；其次,归纳国内外学者在房地产财富效应领域的研究成果,分析目前国内研究中存在的不足；最后给出本文的研究思路以及研究框架。
第2章为理论基础及模型介绍。首先,归纳整理了财富效应以及房地产财富效应的涵义,并对财富效应的理论基础进行阐述；其次,回顾绝对收入假说、实际余额效应理论、持久收入理论以及生命周期理论等传统消费理论和消费函数；然后,分析房地产财富效应的两种传导机制,并尝试从行为金融学角度对房地产财富效应进行研究；接着,结合中国的实际情况,以生命周期理论为基础建立适合我国国情的消费函数；最后,简要介绍空间计量经济学的发展,重点介绍本文中用到的若干知识点及其相关理论。
第3章为中国房地产市场及城镇居民消费描述性分析。首先,采用指标法研究我国1999年至2008年房地产泡沫状况；其次,对我国31个省份的房地产价格进行探索性分析,检验它们的全局和局部空间自相关性；然后,描述我国城镇居民消费率的变动趋势以及地区差异；最后,对我国31个省份的城镇居民消费水平进行空间探索性分析,检验它们的全局和局部空间相关性,为进一步开展空间面板数据分析奠定了基础。
第4章为中国房地产市场财富效应综合分析。首先,回顾空间计量经济学中的主要模型形式,并将其归结为四类；其次,采用普通面板数据模型估计消费函数,为后文采用空间面板数据模型研究我国城镇居民的财富效应做铺垫；再次,采用无固定效应的空间自回归和空间误差模型估计消费函数；最后,同时加入时间和空间固定效应,利用空间自回归和空间误差模型估计消费函数得到我国城镇居民的消费函数,将各种方法的估计结果进行对比分析,并据此解释房价、股市、社保覆盖率以及收入对城镇居民消费的影响。
第5章为房地产财富效应的区域特征分析。首先,利用普通面板和空间面板数据模型分析东部地区的房地产财富效应；其次,使用同样的方法分析中部和西部地区的房地产财富效应；再次,针对东、中、西部地区房地产财富效应表现出的不同特征,分别从收入水平、社保覆盖率解读实证分析的结果；最后,从高房价对消费的挤出效应角度解释东部地区房地产财富效应为负,中西部地区房地产财富效应不显著的原因。
第6章为负向财富效应的后果及蕴藏的风险分析。首先,分析房价上涨带来的财富再分配效应,本文将其称为国民收入的第三次分配,通过房价上涨过程中获益群体分析,将财富再分配后的流向归结为四种趋势；其次,分析财富过于集中之后,消费结构的畸形发展,将普通家庭与最高收入家庭的消费支出进行对比分析,并将奢侈品消费的增长与普通消费品的增长情况进行对比；再者,对制度锁定进行简要介绍,并从利益关系以及传递机制上解释高房价如何导致制度锁定状态；最后,分析负向财富效应对我国城市化进程带来的阻碍作用。
第7章为对策与建议。立足于如何调控过高的房价,分别从如何改革中央和地方税收机制,杜绝以地生财,完善和发展房地产二级市场,大力发展廉租房,以及动用税收、信贷等手段打击房地产投机行为等方面进行论述。
In any country, the real estate industry is a barometer of macro-economy. The real estate industry is huge, which involves dozens of downstream industries. So it can influence economic growth easily. For example, after the subprime crisis, more investment was put into infrastructure construction and real estate, which powerfully promote the recovery of China's economy. So, that a larger scale investment in real estate industry is the guarantee to the V type reverse of economy. However, expanding investment also resulted in soaring house price, which had been torturing Chinese scholars and politicians. Healthy development of the social economy should puts improving income and living standard of the overwhelming majority of citizens as the ultimate goal. But the soaring house price not only states the real estate wealth increasing rapidly, but also highlights the low consumption and income growth of the residents. Although these problems seem to be irrelevant to each other, through in-depth research, they can be related by the real estate wealth effect.
Many studies abroad have proved the real estate wealth effects are significantly positive, which means growing house price can stimulate social consumption. However, in China, this theory seems to be invalid. After the housing commercialization reform in China from 1998, house price rose straightly. If China real estate wealth effect was positive, public consumption level should also grow rapidly. However, the fact is that the growth of Chinese residents' consumption is far behind the growth rate of house price and economy. The contradictory phenomenon shows that the real estate wealth effect in China is likely different from that in the developed countries, which makes related researches have great significance. In addition, provinces of China show significantly regional differences, which is a seldom phenomena in the developed countries. In the east, people has an more open consumption idea, just like the developed economy; but in the central and western regions, the economy is relatively backward, and people's idea is more conservative, just like underdeveloped countries. The huge development gap is more likely to result in different regional characteristics of real estate wealth effect. At the same time, with the spatial econometric continues to mature, spatial panel data analysis has been increasingly common, which can reflect space adjacency. Therefore, applied spatial econometric methods in the study of real estate wealth effect in China, some innovation perhaps can be got.
Through empirical study, this paper attempts to check the existence of real estate wealth effect in China and study its transmission mechanism, spatial and regional difference, which can explain the low consumption and income disparity phenomenon. This paper consists of seven chapters:
Chapter 1 is the introduction of this paper. It introduces the research background, theoretical and practical significance. And it summarizes the papers of domestic and foreign scholars in the field of real estate wealth, based on which the shortcomings are raised. Then the research framework of this paper is constructed.
Chapter 2 introduces relevant theoretical basis and models. Firstly, it clarifies the definitions of wealth effect and real estate wealth effect, and discusses theoretical foundation for wealth effect. Secondly, it reviews various traditional consumption theories and consumption function. Thirdly, it analysis two transmission mechanisms of the real estate wealth effect and tries to give explanations from behavioral finance perspective. Fourthly, combined with the actual situation in China, a consumption function based on the life cycle theory is constructed. Finally, it introduces the development of spatial econometrics and several definitions that will appear in the next chapter.
Chapter 3 is a descriptive analysis of China's real estate market and residents' consumption. Through representative indicators, it studies the bubble in real estate industry from 1999 to 2008 and the consumption trend of Chinese urban residents. Then, it tests the spatial autocorrelation of house prices and consumption expenditure in 31 provinces, which makes exploration for chapter 4.
Chapter 4 is a comprehensive analysis of the wealth effect in China's real estate market. Firstly, it introduces the main models of spatial econometric. Secondly, it estimates consumption function with common panel data model, no fixed effects spatial auto-regression model and spatial error model. Finally, it estimates auto-regression model and spatial error model with time and space fixed effects. And it also makes a comparative analysis of the performance of real estate wealth effect resulted from different models.
Chapter 5 is the regional characteristics of real estate wealth effect in China. Firstly, using common panel data model and spatial panel data model, it analysis the real estate wealth effect in the east, central and west part of China. Secondly, it explains empirical analysis results from different income level, social security coverage etc. perspectives. Finally, it shows that high house price extrudes too much consumption in the east is the main cause for negative wealth effect. And it also explains the reason for the un-significance of wealth effect in the central and west parts.
Chapter 6 is the consequences and risk due to negative wealth effect. Firstly, soaring house price leads to wealth redistribution, which is called the third distribution of national income in this paper. Secondly, national wealth is centralized extremely for the reason of unusually high house price, which results in distorted consumption structure that luxury consumption grew rapidly, but ordinary consumption grew slowly. Thirdly, negative wealth effect leads to a locked state of institutional reform, which can be explained from interest relations and transmission mechanism produced by high house price. Finally, negative wealth effect hinders the urbanization process in China.
Chapter 7 consists of countermeasures and suggestions to eliminate negative wealth effect. For this purpose, the key is to control the soaring house price, and some reforms should be put into effect. They are to reform the revenue distribution mechanism between central and local governments, to eliminate increasing revenue by land sales, to develop real estate market trade markets and low-rent houses vigorously. And to crackdown real estate speculation is also necessary, through imposing house property tax, stopping new loan to the speculators.
国外研究证实,房地产存在显著的正向财富效应,即房价上涨能够刺激消费。不过,这一理论在我国似乎并没有得到印证。我国从1998年全面实施住房商品化改革以来,房价快速上涨,如果存在正向财富效应,人们的消费水平也应同步增长。然而,我国居民消费增长速度却远落后于房价上涨速度和经济的整体增速。这一矛盾现象表明,我国与发达国家的房地产财富效应很可能存在差异。因此,通过实证的方法研究我国房地产财富效应具有重要意义。此外,与欧美发达国家不同的是,我国经济地域性差异巨大。东部地区经济发达,人们的消费观念较为超前,类似于发达国家；而中西部地区相对落后,人们的观念较为保守,表现出典型的发展中国家特色。这种巨大的发展差距很可能导致房地产财富效应也存在地域性特征。同时,随着空间计量经济学的不断成熟,空间面板数据分析方法得到广泛应用,使得研究对象的空间相邻性对经济现象的影响得以充分体现。因此,将空间计量经济学应用到我国房地产财富效应的研究中,可以突破现有研究的局限性,以全新的视角得出结论。
本研究试图通过空间计量等实证方法,检验我国房地产财富效应的存在性,研究房地产财富效应的传递机制,分析我国房地产财富效应的空间特性和地区差异,解读我国存在的高房价、低消费、收入差距等社会现象。本研究共分为7章：
第1章为导论。首先,介绍研究背景,理论及实际意义；其次,归纳国内外学者在房地产财富效应领域的研究成果,分析目前国内研究中存在的不足；最后给出本文的研究思路以及研究框架。
第2章为理论基础及模型介绍。首先,归纳整理了财富效应以及房地产财富效应的涵义,并对财富效应的理论基础进行阐述；其次,回顾绝对收入假说、实际余额效应理论、持久收入理论以及生命周期理论等传统消费理论和消费函数；然后,分析房地产财富效应的两种传导机制,并尝试从行为金融学角度对房地产财富效应进行研究；接着,结合中国的实际情况,以生命周期理论为基础建立适合我国国情的消费函数；最后,简要介绍空间计量经济学的发展,重点介绍本文中用到的若干知识点及其相关理论。
第3章为中国房地产市场及城镇居民消费描述性分析。首先,采用指标法研究我国1999年至2008年房地产泡沫状况；其次,对我国31个省份的房地产价格进行探索性分析,检验它们的全局和局部空间自相关性；然后,描述我国城镇居民消费率的变动趋势以及地区差异；最后,对我国31个省份的城镇居民消费水平进行空间探索性分析,检验它们的全局和局部空间相关性,为进一步开展空间面板数据分析奠定了基础。
第4章为中国房地产市场财富效应综合分析。首先,回顾空间计量经济学中的主要模型形式,并将其归结为四类；其次,采用普通面板数据模型估计消费函数,为后文采用空间面板数据模型研究我国城镇居民的财富效应做铺垫；再次,采用无固定效应的空间自回归和空间误差模型估计消费函数；最后,同时加入时间和空间固定效应,利用空间自回归和空间误差模型估计消费函数得到我国城镇居民的消费函数,将各种方法的估计结果进行对比分析,并据此解释房价、股市、社保覆盖率以及收入对城镇居民消费的影响。
第5章为房地产财富效应的区域特征分析。首先,利用普通面板和空间面板数据模型分析东部地区的房地产财富效应；其次,使用同样的方法分析中部和西部地区的房地产财富效应；再次,针对东、中、西部地区房地产财富效应表现出的不同特征,分别从收入水平、社保覆盖率解读实证分析的结果；最后,从高房价对消费的挤出效应角度解释东部地区房地产财富效应为负,中西部地区房地产财富效应不显著的原因。
第6章为负向财富效应的后果及蕴藏的风险分析。首先,分析房价上涨带来的财富再分配效应,本文将其称为国民收入的第三次分配,通过房价上涨过程中获益群体分析,将财富再分配后的流向归结为四种趋势；其次,分析财富过于集中之后,消费结构的畸形发展,将普通家庭与最高收入家庭的消费支出进行对比分析,并将奢侈品消费的增长与普通消费品的增长情况进行对比；再者,对制度锁定进行简要介绍,并从利益关系以及传递机制上解释高房价如何导致制度锁定状态；最后,分析负向财富效应对我国城市化进程带来的阻碍作用。
第7章为对策与建议。立足于如何调控过高的房价,分别从如何改革中央和地方税收机制,杜绝以地生财,完善和发展房地产二级市场,大力发展廉租房,以及动用税收、信贷等手段打击房地产投机行为等方面进行论述。
In any country, the real estate industry is a barometer of macro-economy. The real estate industry is huge, which involves dozens of downstream industries. So it can influence economic growth easily. For example, after the subprime crisis, more investment was put into infrastructure construction and real estate, which powerfully promote the recovery of China's economy. So, that a larger scale investment in real estate industry is the guarantee to the V type reverse of economy. However, expanding investment also resulted in soaring house price, which had been torturing Chinese scholars and politicians. Healthy development of the social economy should puts improving income and living standard of the overwhelming majority of citizens as the ultimate goal. But the soaring house price not only states the real estate wealth increasing rapidly, but also highlights the low consumption and income growth of the residents. Although these problems seem to be irrelevant to each other, through in-depth research, they can be related by the real estate wealth effect.
Many studies abroad have proved the real estate wealth effects are significantly positive, which means growing house price can stimulate social consumption. However, in China, this theory seems to be invalid. After the housing commercialization reform in China from 1998, house price rose straightly. If China real estate wealth effect was positive, public consumption level should also grow rapidly. However, the fact is that the growth of Chinese residents' consumption is far behind the growth rate of house price and economy. The contradictory phenomenon shows that the real estate wealth effect in China is likely different from that in the developed countries, which makes related researches have great significance. In addition, provinces of China show significantly regional differences, which is a seldom phenomena in the developed countries. In the east, people has an more open consumption idea, just like the developed economy; but in the central and western regions, the economy is relatively backward, and people's idea is more conservative, just like underdeveloped countries. The huge development gap is more likely to result in different regional characteristics of real estate wealth effect. At the same time, with the spatial econometric continues to mature, spatial panel data analysis has been increasingly common, which can reflect space adjacency. Therefore, applied spatial econometric methods in the study of real estate wealth effect in China, some innovation perhaps can be got.
Through empirical study, this paper attempts to check the existence of real estate wealth effect in China and study its transmission mechanism, spatial and regional difference, which can explain the low consumption and income disparity phenomenon. This paper consists of seven chapters:
Chapter 1 is the introduction of this paper. It introduces the research background, theoretical and practical significance. And it summarizes the papers of domestic and foreign scholars in the field of real estate wealth, based on which the shortcomings are raised. Then the research framework of this paper is constructed.
Chapter 2 introduces relevant theoretical basis and models. Firstly, it clarifies the definitions of wealth effect and real estate wealth effect, and discusses theoretical foundation for wealth effect. Secondly, it reviews various traditional consumption theories and consumption function. Thirdly, it analysis two transmission mechanisms of the real estate wealth effect and tries to give explanations from behavioral finance perspective. Fourthly, combined with the actual situation in China, a consumption function based on the life cycle theory is constructed. Finally, it introduces the development of spatial econometrics and several definitions that will appear in the next chapter.
Chapter 3 is a descriptive analysis of China's real estate market and residents' consumption. Through representative indicators, it studies the bubble in real estate industry from 1999 to 2008 and the consumption trend of Chinese urban residents. Then, it tests the spatial autocorrelation of house prices and consumption expenditure in 31 provinces, which makes exploration for chapter 4.
Chapter 4 is a comprehensive analysis of the wealth effect in China's real estate market. Firstly, it introduces the main models of spatial econometric. Secondly, it estimates consumption function with common panel data model, no fixed effects spatial auto-regression model and spatial error model. Finally, it estimates auto-regression model and spatial error model with time and space fixed effects. And it also makes a comparative analysis of the performance of real estate wealth effect resulted from different models.
Chapter 5 is the regional characteristics of real estate wealth effect in China. Firstly, using common panel data model and spatial panel data model, it analysis the real estate wealth effect in the east, central and west part of China. Secondly, it explains empirical analysis results from different income level, social security coverage etc. perspectives. Finally, it shows that high house price extrudes too much consumption in the east is the main cause for negative wealth effect. And it also explains the reason for the un-significance of wealth effect in the central and west parts.
Chapter 6 is the consequences and risk due to negative wealth effect. Firstly, soaring house price leads to wealth redistribution, which is called the third distribution of national income in this paper. Secondly, national wealth is centralized extremely for the reason of unusually high house price, which results in distorted consumption structure that luxury consumption grew rapidly, but ordinary consumption grew slowly. Thirdly, negative wealth effect leads to a locked state of institutional reform, which can be explained from interest relations and transmission mechanism produced by high house price. Finally, negative wealth effect hinders the urbanization process in China.
Chapter 7 consists of countermeasures and suggestions to eliminate negative wealth effect. For this purpose, the key is to control the soaring house price, and some reforms should be put into effect. They are to reform the revenue distribution mechanism between central and local governments, to eliminate increasing revenue by land sales, to develop real estate market trade markets and low-rent houses vigorously. And to crackdown real estate speculation is also necessary, through imposing house property tax, stopping new loan to the speculators.
引文
①项大成.省级地方政府财政支出与国内生产总值关系的空间计量分析[D].天津财经大学硕士论文,2009.
①倪鹏飞.中国房地产：徘徊在泡沫边缘[J].财经界,2004,(11)：66-68.
①熊志飞.信息失衡、交易效率和中介市场症结.南京理工大学硕士论文,2005年6月,P55-57
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