广东省金融支持下的产业转移溢出效应研究
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摘要
广东省作为改革开放前沿,近年来为转变增长方式,实现产业调整升级,开展了大规模的省内产业转移。产业转移作为产业结构升级的主要手段,其过程实际上是经济、社会资源在不同产业之间、不同地域之间的重新配置,使稀缺的资源能够实现效用最大化的过程。而在各种要素、资源的转移过程中,资本具有引领和导向的作用,只有实现了资本在产业、区域间的转移,才能引导其他生产要素的转移,从而推动产业结构的调整升级,实现经济发展方式的转变。所以,能否通过产业转移从而实现资源的优化配置,金融支持是至关重要的。
本文在回顾国内外文献的基础上,对产业结构理论、金融发展理论进行了整理和回顾;对产业结构调整升级和产业转移的关系;经济发展与金融发展的关系;产业升级与金融发展的关系;产业转移与金融支持等关系的研究进行了梳理和归纳后得出:国外研究主要是侧重于从技术创新的支持来分析支持研究金融发展对产业增长的影响,而关于金融发展对产业结构调整影响的研究较少。从整体而言,对金融与产业发展关系的研究尚未建立起一个完整的框架,研究深度尚待加强,金融作用于产业结构转换的机理尚待进一步明晰;实证分析我国金融对产业结构升级调整影响的研究比较薄弱,绝大部分文献都没能进行实证分析,而且缺乏对我国不同金融形式与产业结构升级影响效应的系统性实证检验。
为此,本文以宏观金融对广东省产业转移的支持为标的,对其在产业转移过程中金融支持的溢出效应进行研究。首先回顾了广东省的产业发展历程,分析了产业调整的现状及发展方向。对广东省包括财政、主要金融业、外商直接投资(FDI)的金融总量及对广东省产业转移的支持水平进行了描述统计。在此基础上,提出了在金融支持下产业转移溢出效应的概念及指标体系,分析探讨了金融支持产业转移溢出效应的产生机理,包括金融机构、政府财政支持和外商直接投资(FDI)下产业转移溢出效应的产生机理。基于这些机理,将广东省产业转移的问题分为珠三角地区和非珠三角地区以及承接国际产业转移三个方面进行研究。
首先,构建结构方程模型(SEM),并利用2004-2008年广东省金融机构、政府财政及产业转移溢出效应等有关指标数据分别对珠三角地区和非珠三角地区的产业转移进行了结构方程模型设计和检验分析,得出以下结论:第一,珠三角地区和非珠三角地区的金融机构和政府财政都对产业转移的溢出效应指标具有正向作用,而且政府财政支持还会通过金融机构正向影响产业转移溢出效应;第二,广东省产业转移溢出效应中政府财政的总体作用力度大于金融机构。
接着,对反映广东省引进国际产业转移的外商直接投资方面,利用双机制双因素分析模型把1995-2009年分成两个时间段进行实证分析,考察了外商直接投资对广东省高技术产业发展的溢出效应。研究表明,在外商直接投资进入早期(1995-2001年),其对本地企业的溢出效应主要表现为外资参与程度的集聚性溢出效应。在随后的2002-2009年,反映外资企业数量的这种集聚性溢出效应的影响逐渐减弱,反映外资企业质量的效率性溢出效应逐渐增强。
最后,本文对金融支持产业转移的最终目的—实现产业结构升级进行仿真实验,将系统动力学方法运用到金融支持下的产业结构升级评价中,对广东2000～2009年金融支持下产业系统进行仿真,并设计出五种金融支持产业结构升级的系统方案,基于各个模拟方案的仿真结果,得到产业结构升级的经济系统动态优化方案。
As the frontier of china economy reform, Guangdong province has recently launched a vast scale in-province industrial transfer to switch to a new economy growth model and to upgrade its industrial structure. Industrial structure transfer process which is applied herein is basically the re-allocations of economic and social resources between different industries and geographic areas hence the needed or undersupply resources could be used in optimize way. During the process of transferring factors and resources, capital is playing the leading and directive role and therefore only if the capital transfer between industries and geographic areas is implemented effectively, then the transfer of industrial related factors, the industrial structure upgrade; and the transition to new economy growth mode could be done accordingly. In sort, financial support is one of the most important factors to implement resources optimal allocation through industrial transfer.
Based on reviewing pertinent literatures from international and china economy academic community, this paper examines and discusses industrial structure and financial development theory, analyzes the relationship between industrial structure upgrade and industrial transfer; the association between economy development and financial development; the connection between industrial structure upgrade and financial development; and the interaction between industrial transfer and financial support. In summarization, it indicates that the international researches are mostly focuses on studying the relationship of financial development and industrial structure upgrade through financial support of new technology innovation, little has been done from the aspect of how the financial support affects the industrial structure upgrade. From a higher stand point, the research on relationship of financial development and industrial development is yet to establish a relative complete framework, therefore further in-depth research in this area is demanded, especially on the mechanism of how financial support affects the industrial structure promotion. Further more, empirical analysis on china financial support effect to industrial structure upgrade hasn’t been widely applied; most of the domestic literatures do not include systematical empirical analysis on effect of financial support to industrial structure upgrade from different financial organization.
Focusing on Guangdong province’s industrial transfer process, this paper analyzes the overflow effect of financial support during the transfer. First of all, this paper reviews the history of Guangdong province’s industrial development, analyzes the current status and future development trend of industrial structure upgrade, and apply descriptive statistics analysis on the financial support values from Guangdong province government, financial organizations, financial representative organizations, foreign direct investments. Base on the review and statistics, the modeling concept of industrial transfer overflow effect under financial support and the model parameters system are defined, the mechanism of industrial transfer overflow effect under the financial support from financial market; government and foreign direct investment is analyzed, and further, the analyze of Guangdong province industrial transfer process is classified into three categories; Pear river delta area industrial transfer process, non-Pear river delta area industrial transfer process and international industrial transfer process. Based on the proposed model, the industrial structure upgrade process under the financial support is evaluated.
This paper establishes a structure equation model (SEM) for the transfer process, apply the 2004~2008 statistical data of Guangdong province’s financial support from government and financial organizations; and the statistical data of corresponding industrial transfer overflow effect into the model to analyze Pear river delta area industrial transfer process and non-Pear river delta area industrial transfer process, model design adjustment and significant test are performed. It concludes; first, the government financial support of Pear river delta area industrial transfer process and non-Pear river delta area industrial transfer process has positive effect on the industrial transfer overflow parameters, the government financial support also influences the financial market to deliver financial support and provide positive effect on the industrial transfer process, second, the government financial support effect is larger than the financial market.
The international industrial transfer process through foreign direct investment is studied by a dual-mechanism two factors model, the 1995~2009 time span is divided in to two periods for empirical analysis, this paper examines the overflow effect of Guangdong province’s high tech industry development under foreign direct investment, it indicates that during the early stage of foreign direct investment (1995~2001), the local enterprises development overflow effect was mostly from the high concentration of foreign direct investment. In the second period thereafter 2002~2009, the high concentration level of foreign direct investment by number of foreign enterprises on the overflow effect has been decreased and at the mean time the efficiency overflow effect by the quality of foreign enterprises has been increased.
Lastly, this paper applies System Dynamic Model to simulate and evaluate the industrial transfer process under financial support and examines the process’s destination - industrial structure upgrade, a system dynamic model is designed and applied to simulate Guangdong province 2000~2009 industrial upgrade process, based on the model, five system plans are designed for optimizing the industrial structure upgrade under financial support. The optimized plan is selected and presented according to the result of system dynamic model simulation.
本文在回顾国内外文献的基础上,对产业结构理论、金融发展理论进行了整理和回顾;对产业结构调整升级和产业转移的关系;经济发展与金融发展的关系;产业升级与金融发展的关系;产业转移与金融支持等关系的研究进行了梳理和归纳后得出:国外研究主要是侧重于从技术创新的支持来分析支持研究金融发展对产业增长的影响,而关于金融发展对产业结构调整影响的研究较少。从整体而言,对金融与产业发展关系的研究尚未建立起一个完整的框架,研究深度尚待加强,金融作用于产业结构转换的机理尚待进一步明晰;实证分析我国金融对产业结构升级调整影响的研究比较薄弱,绝大部分文献都没能进行实证分析,而且缺乏对我国不同金融形式与产业结构升级影响效应的系统性实证检验。
为此,本文以宏观金融对广东省产业转移的支持为标的,对其在产业转移过程中金融支持的溢出效应进行研究。首先回顾了广东省的产业发展历程,分析了产业调整的现状及发展方向。对广东省包括财政、主要金融业、外商直接投资(FDI)的金融总量及对广东省产业转移的支持水平进行了描述统计。在此基础上,提出了在金融支持下产业转移溢出效应的概念及指标体系,分析探讨了金融支持产业转移溢出效应的产生机理,包括金融机构、政府财政支持和外商直接投资(FDI)下产业转移溢出效应的产生机理。基于这些机理,将广东省产业转移的问题分为珠三角地区和非珠三角地区以及承接国际产业转移三个方面进行研究。
首先,构建结构方程模型(SEM),并利用2004-2008年广东省金融机构、政府财政及产业转移溢出效应等有关指标数据分别对珠三角地区和非珠三角地区的产业转移进行了结构方程模型设计和检验分析,得出以下结论:第一,珠三角地区和非珠三角地区的金融机构和政府财政都对产业转移的溢出效应指标具有正向作用,而且政府财政支持还会通过金融机构正向影响产业转移溢出效应;第二,广东省产业转移溢出效应中政府财政的总体作用力度大于金融机构。
接着,对反映广东省引进国际产业转移的外商直接投资方面,利用双机制双因素分析模型把1995-2009年分成两个时间段进行实证分析,考察了外商直接投资对广东省高技术产业发展的溢出效应。研究表明,在外商直接投资进入早期(1995-2001年),其对本地企业的溢出效应主要表现为外资参与程度的集聚性溢出效应。在随后的2002-2009年,反映外资企业数量的这种集聚性溢出效应的影响逐渐减弱,反映外资企业质量的效率性溢出效应逐渐增强。
最后,本文对金融支持产业转移的最终目的—实现产业结构升级进行仿真实验,将系统动力学方法运用到金融支持下的产业结构升级评价中,对广东2000～2009年金融支持下产业系统进行仿真,并设计出五种金融支持产业结构升级的系统方案,基于各个模拟方案的仿真结果,得到产业结构升级的经济系统动态优化方案。
As the frontier of china economy reform, Guangdong province has recently launched a vast scale in-province industrial transfer to switch to a new economy growth model and to upgrade its industrial structure. Industrial structure transfer process which is applied herein is basically the re-allocations of economic and social resources between different industries and geographic areas hence the needed or undersupply resources could be used in optimize way. During the process of transferring factors and resources, capital is playing the leading and directive role and therefore only if the capital transfer between industries and geographic areas is implemented effectively, then the transfer of industrial related factors, the industrial structure upgrade; and the transition to new economy growth mode could be done accordingly. In sort, financial support is one of the most important factors to implement resources optimal allocation through industrial transfer.
Based on reviewing pertinent literatures from international and china economy academic community, this paper examines and discusses industrial structure and financial development theory, analyzes the relationship between industrial structure upgrade and industrial transfer; the association between economy development and financial development; the connection between industrial structure upgrade and financial development; and the interaction between industrial transfer and financial support. In summarization, it indicates that the international researches are mostly focuses on studying the relationship of financial development and industrial structure upgrade through financial support of new technology innovation, little has been done from the aspect of how the financial support affects the industrial structure upgrade. From a higher stand point, the research on relationship of financial development and industrial development is yet to establish a relative complete framework, therefore further in-depth research in this area is demanded, especially on the mechanism of how financial support affects the industrial structure promotion. Further more, empirical analysis on china financial support effect to industrial structure upgrade hasn’t been widely applied; most of the domestic literatures do not include systematical empirical analysis on effect of financial support to industrial structure upgrade from different financial organization.
Focusing on Guangdong province’s industrial transfer process, this paper analyzes the overflow effect of financial support during the transfer. First of all, this paper reviews the history of Guangdong province’s industrial development, analyzes the current status and future development trend of industrial structure upgrade, and apply descriptive statistics analysis on the financial support values from Guangdong province government, financial organizations, financial representative organizations, foreign direct investments. Base on the review and statistics, the modeling concept of industrial transfer overflow effect under financial support and the model parameters system are defined, the mechanism of industrial transfer overflow effect under the financial support from financial market; government and foreign direct investment is analyzed, and further, the analyze of Guangdong province industrial transfer process is classified into three categories; Pear river delta area industrial transfer process, non-Pear river delta area industrial transfer process and international industrial transfer process. Based on the proposed model, the industrial structure upgrade process under the financial support is evaluated.
This paper establishes a structure equation model (SEM) for the transfer process, apply the 2004~2008 statistical data of Guangdong province’s financial support from government and financial organizations; and the statistical data of corresponding industrial transfer overflow effect into the model to analyze Pear river delta area industrial transfer process and non-Pear river delta area industrial transfer process, model design adjustment and significant test are performed. It concludes; first, the government financial support of Pear river delta area industrial transfer process and non-Pear river delta area industrial transfer process has positive effect on the industrial transfer overflow parameters, the government financial support also influences the financial market to deliver financial support and provide positive effect on the industrial transfer process, second, the government financial support effect is larger than the financial market.
The international industrial transfer process through foreign direct investment is studied by a dual-mechanism two factors model, the 1995~2009 time span is divided in to two periods for empirical analysis, this paper examines the overflow effect of Guangdong province’s high tech industry development under foreign direct investment, it indicates that during the early stage of foreign direct investment (1995~2001), the local enterprises development overflow effect was mostly from the high concentration of foreign direct investment. In the second period thereafter 2002~2009, the high concentration level of foreign direct investment by number of foreign enterprises on the overflow effect has been decreased and at the mean time the efficiency overflow effect by the quality of foreign enterprises has been increased.
Lastly, this paper applies System Dynamic Model to simulate and evaluate the industrial transfer process under financial support and examines the process’s destination - industrial structure upgrade, a system dynamic model is designed and applied to simulate Guangdong province 2000~2009 industrial upgrade process, based on the model, five system plans are designed for optimizing the industrial structure upgrade under financial support. The optimized plan is selected and presented according to the result of system dynamic model simulation.
引文
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