经济开放度与货币政策有效性
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摘要
在经济全球化时代,任何一个国家或地区都不可能完全独立地进行经济金融决策,这已是人所共知的事实。但经济开放度究竟如何影响一个国家的宏观经济政策,特别是经济开放度对一国货币政策有效性的影响,目前还没有形成一致的观点。
本文在新开放经济宏观经济学的研究框架中,首先加入国际金融市场交易成本和工资交错调整假设,构建货币政策有效性分析的基础模型,通过模型推导分析货币冲击对货币市场、产品市场和要素市场的影响,并在一般均衡的分析框架下分析非贸易品和交易成本对货币政策有效性的影响。
然后在货币政策有效性的基础模型中考虑经济开放度因素——贸易开放度和国际金融开放度,将基础模型扩展为经济开放度与货币政策有效性分析模型,从理论上分析经济开放度不同时,货币政策对汇率、消费和产出的影响,并运用校准法模拟扩展模型中不同贸易开放度和金融开放度下,货币政策对汇率、消费和产出的影响程度。该方法通过对微观主体的行为模拟,给予校准值后,通过模型计算出微观经济主体对宏观经济的影响作用,可以从理论上计量经济开放度对货币政策有效性的影响程度。我们的模型模拟分析发现：(1)贸易开放度和金融开放度的增加减缓了汇率的短期超调现象,即经济开放度越大时,货币冲击引起汇率超调的幅度越小；(2)经济开放度增加,使得国内产品的价格粘性减少,货币冲击引起的价格水平调整随之提高,因此,货币冲击形成的实际货币余额效应下降,相应地消费增长幅度减少；(3)在开放经济条件下,货币供给冲击引起的汇率超调现象减弱,进出口增长幅度比预期的要小,同时,金融开放度的增加,使得货币当局控制货币供应量的能力减弱,通过利率刺激投资的增量也会减少,所以,经济开放度越高,货币政策影响产出的能力越弱；(4)随着经济开放度的增加,货币供给可能出现一定的内生性,货币政策当局必须更加关注通货膨胀水平,避免国内经济受到外部冲击而产生剧烈波动,维护稳定的金融环境,促进经济和技术发展。
接着进行实证分析,求证经济开放度对我国货币政策有效性的影响。我们认为研究货币政策有效性问题,要分别从货币政策工具、货币政策传导渠道和货币政策的最终目标的角度研究货币政策效果,具体而言就是研究经济开放度对我国货币政策工具选择的影响,经济开放度在我国货币政策传导渠道中的作用,探讨经济开放度是否影响货币政策达到最终目标,以及具体经济开放度对货币政策的影响程度。本文的实证分析表明：(1)从货币政策工具来看,贸易开放度和金融开放度对基础货币具有稳定的持续影响,随着经济开放度的增加,使得基础货币的内生性增强,中央银行控制基础货币的能力降低。(2)从货币政策传导来看,贸易开放度和金融开放度对主要货币传导渠道均有影响,其中,贸易开放度是信贷传导的格兰杰原因；利率传导是贸易开放度和金融开放度的格兰杰原因；股票市场价值与金融开放度互为格兰杰因果；金融开放度和贸易开放度都是汇率的格兰杰原因,随着我国汇率体制的改革发展,开放经济下汇率传导渠道的作用将会进一步显现。(3)从货币政策最终目标来看,金融开放度通过利率传导渠道和资本市场传导渠道影响价格水平,价格水平随着金融开放度的增加(降低)而上升(下降),因此,金融开放度越高,中央银行控制价格的能力越弱,货币政策有效性越低；贸易开放度与货币供应量和产出之间存在稳定的协整关系,而且产出水平受贸易开放度的影响具有持久性,从长期来看贸易开放度对产出的影响大于货币供应量对产出的影响。
最后本文提出增强我国货币政策有效性的政策建议,认为在开放经济条件下我国的宏观经济政策必须做到内部协调与外部协调相结合,货币政策与金融监管相结合。我国政府和货币当局需要重视国内货币政策和财政政策的协调,加强货币政策的国际间协调,完善国内金融监管体系的构建,强化金融监管的国际协调。
In the era of economic globalization, no country or region can not be completely to carry out economic and financial decision-making independent, this is a fact known to all. However, how the impact of the economic openness to a country's macroeconomic policies, especially economic openness of a country's impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy, there is no consensus view.
We study in the new open economy macroeconomic framework, first of all to join the international financial markets transaction costs and staggered wage adjustment assumptions, build a basic model to analyse the monetary policy,the model is derived through the analysis of monetary shocks to the money market, product markets and factor market and general equilibrium analysis in the framework of analysis of non-tradable goods and transaction costs affect the effectiveness of monetary policy.
Then we consider the effectiveness of monetary policy based on the model factors to economic openness-trade liberalization and international financial openness, the expansion of basic model for economic openness and the effectiveness of monetary policy analysis model, analysis the effectiveness of monetary policy on the exchange rate,consumption and output. And use the calibration method, simulated staggered wage adjustment model in different degrees of trade liberalization and financial openness, analyse the impact of the monetary policy on the exchange rate, consumption and the output. The method simulated the main of micro-behavior, to give the calibration value, through the model of the main micro-economic calculated impact of macroeconomic from econometric theory, and the impact of the openness of the effectiveness to monetary policy. Our model analysis showed that:(1) trade openness and financial openness slowed the rate of increase of the phenomenon of short-term overshoot, that is, the greater the degree of economic openness, the currency impact caused by the smaller magnitude of exchange rate adjustment; (2) as openness increasing, making the prices of domestic products to reduce staggered, which is caused by monetary shocks the price level adjustment raise, therefore, real money balance effect caused by the currency impact on the formation of the declined, a corresponding reduction in the growth rate of consumption; (3) in an open economy, the exchange rate overshoot caused by money supply shocks weakened, import and export growth rate is smaller than expected at the same time, the increase in financial openness, the monetary authorities control the money supply has declined through the interest rates will stimulate investment and reduce incremental, so the higher the degree of economic openness and monetary policy affect the output capacity of the weaker; (4) With the increase in economic openness, the money supply may be a certain degree of endogeneity, therefore, monetary policy authorities must pay more attention to the level of inflation to avoid the domestic economy to external shocks arising from severe fluctuations in the maintenance of stable financial environment and the promotion of economic and technological development.
Followed by empirical analysis, to verify the economic openness of China's impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy, we believe that the study of the effectiveness of monetary policy, it is necessary to separate from the monetary policy tools, monetary policy transmission channels and the ultimate goal of monetary policy to the point of view, monetary policy effects is to study the specific terms of the economic openness of China's monetary policy tools to choose the impact of economic openness in China's monetary policy transmission channels for the role, to explore whether the effects of economic openness to reach the ultimate goal of monetary policy, as well as the specific economic openness on the the impact of monetary policy. In this paper, the evidence was found:(1) from the point of view of monetary policy, trade openness and financial openness has a stable effects to the base currency, with the increase in economic openness, for the increasing endogenous of base money, the central bank control the ability of base money been lowered. (2) from the monetary policy point of view, trade openness and financial openness are affected the main channels of monetary transmission, of which, trade openness Granger credit reasons conduction; conduction rate of trade openness and financial openness Granger causes; the stock market value and financial openness Granger causality to each other; financial openness and trade openness Granger are the reasons for the exchange rate, as China's exchange rate system reform and development, open economies the exchange rate under the conduction the role of the channels will be further apparent.(3) from the point of view for the ultimate goal of monetary policy, the financial openness of conduction channels through the interest rates and capital market impact of transmission channels of price level, price level increased with the financial openness, therefore, for the higher degrees of financial liberalization, the central bank's ability weaker to control the prices, and the effectiveness of monetary policy lower; trade openness and the money supply and output had the cointegration relationship stability, and in the long run the level of output by the impact of trade openness with persistently, trade openness impact on output is greater than the impact of money supply done.
Finally, this paper give policy recommendations to enhance the effectiveness of China's monetary policy, that is under the conditions of an open economy in China's macro-economic policy must be the internal coordination and external coordination of the combination of monetary policy and financial supervision combination. China's government and monetary authorities need to focus on domestic monetary policy and fiscal policy coordination, strengthen the international monetary policy coordination, and improve supervision of domestic financial system, strengthen international coordination of financial supervision.
本文在新开放经济宏观经济学的研究框架中,首先加入国际金融市场交易成本和工资交错调整假设,构建货币政策有效性分析的基础模型,通过模型推导分析货币冲击对货币市场、产品市场和要素市场的影响,并在一般均衡的分析框架下分析非贸易品和交易成本对货币政策有效性的影响。
然后在货币政策有效性的基础模型中考虑经济开放度因素——贸易开放度和国际金融开放度,将基础模型扩展为经济开放度与货币政策有效性分析模型,从理论上分析经济开放度不同时,货币政策对汇率、消费和产出的影响,并运用校准法模拟扩展模型中不同贸易开放度和金融开放度下,货币政策对汇率、消费和产出的影响程度。该方法通过对微观主体的行为模拟,给予校准值后,通过模型计算出微观经济主体对宏观经济的影响作用,可以从理论上计量经济开放度对货币政策有效性的影响程度。我们的模型模拟分析发现：(1)贸易开放度和金融开放度的增加减缓了汇率的短期超调现象,即经济开放度越大时,货币冲击引起汇率超调的幅度越小；(2)经济开放度增加,使得国内产品的价格粘性减少,货币冲击引起的价格水平调整随之提高,因此,货币冲击形成的实际货币余额效应下降,相应地消费增长幅度减少；(3)在开放经济条件下,货币供给冲击引起的汇率超调现象减弱,进出口增长幅度比预期的要小,同时,金融开放度的增加,使得货币当局控制货币供应量的能力减弱,通过利率刺激投资的增量也会减少,所以,经济开放度越高,货币政策影响产出的能力越弱；(4)随着经济开放度的增加,货币供给可能出现一定的内生性,货币政策当局必须更加关注通货膨胀水平,避免国内经济受到外部冲击而产生剧烈波动,维护稳定的金融环境,促进经济和技术发展。
接着进行实证分析,求证经济开放度对我国货币政策有效性的影响。我们认为研究货币政策有效性问题,要分别从货币政策工具、货币政策传导渠道和货币政策的最终目标的角度研究货币政策效果,具体而言就是研究经济开放度对我国货币政策工具选择的影响,经济开放度在我国货币政策传导渠道中的作用,探讨经济开放度是否影响货币政策达到最终目标,以及具体经济开放度对货币政策的影响程度。本文的实证分析表明：(1)从货币政策工具来看,贸易开放度和金融开放度对基础货币具有稳定的持续影响,随着经济开放度的增加,使得基础货币的内生性增强,中央银行控制基础货币的能力降低。(2)从货币政策传导来看,贸易开放度和金融开放度对主要货币传导渠道均有影响,其中,贸易开放度是信贷传导的格兰杰原因；利率传导是贸易开放度和金融开放度的格兰杰原因；股票市场价值与金融开放度互为格兰杰因果；金融开放度和贸易开放度都是汇率的格兰杰原因,随着我国汇率体制的改革发展,开放经济下汇率传导渠道的作用将会进一步显现。(3)从货币政策最终目标来看,金融开放度通过利率传导渠道和资本市场传导渠道影响价格水平,价格水平随着金融开放度的增加(降低)而上升(下降),因此,金融开放度越高,中央银行控制价格的能力越弱,货币政策有效性越低；贸易开放度与货币供应量和产出之间存在稳定的协整关系,而且产出水平受贸易开放度的影响具有持久性,从长期来看贸易开放度对产出的影响大于货币供应量对产出的影响。
最后本文提出增强我国货币政策有效性的政策建议,认为在开放经济条件下我国的宏观经济政策必须做到内部协调与外部协调相结合,货币政策与金融监管相结合。我国政府和货币当局需要重视国内货币政策和财政政策的协调,加强货币政策的国际间协调,完善国内金融监管体系的构建,强化金融监管的国际协调。
In the era of economic globalization, no country or region can not be completely to carry out economic and financial decision-making independent, this is a fact known to all. However, how the impact of the economic openness to a country's macroeconomic policies, especially economic openness of a country's impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy, there is no consensus view.
We study in the new open economy macroeconomic framework, first of all to join the international financial markets transaction costs and staggered wage adjustment assumptions, build a basic model to analyse the monetary policy,the model is derived through the analysis of monetary shocks to the money market, product markets and factor market and general equilibrium analysis in the framework of analysis of non-tradable goods and transaction costs affect the effectiveness of monetary policy.
Then we consider the effectiveness of monetary policy based on the model factors to economic openness-trade liberalization and international financial openness, the expansion of basic model for economic openness and the effectiveness of monetary policy analysis model, analysis the effectiveness of monetary policy on the exchange rate,consumption and output. And use the calibration method, simulated staggered wage adjustment model in different degrees of trade liberalization and financial openness, analyse the impact of the monetary policy on the exchange rate, consumption and the output. The method simulated the main of micro-behavior, to give the calibration value, through the model of the main micro-economic calculated impact of macroeconomic from econometric theory, and the impact of the openness of the effectiveness to monetary policy. Our model analysis showed that:(1) trade openness and financial openness slowed the rate of increase of the phenomenon of short-term overshoot, that is, the greater the degree of economic openness, the currency impact caused by the smaller magnitude of exchange rate adjustment; (2) as openness increasing, making the prices of domestic products to reduce staggered, which is caused by monetary shocks the price level adjustment raise, therefore, real money balance effect caused by the currency impact on the formation of the declined, a corresponding reduction in the growth rate of consumption; (3) in an open economy, the exchange rate overshoot caused by money supply shocks weakened, import and export growth rate is smaller than expected at the same time, the increase in financial openness, the monetary authorities control the money supply has declined through the interest rates will stimulate investment and reduce incremental, so the higher the degree of economic openness and monetary policy affect the output capacity of the weaker; (4) With the increase in economic openness, the money supply may be a certain degree of endogeneity, therefore, monetary policy authorities must pay more attention to the level of inflation to avoid the domestic economy to external shocks arising from severe fluctuations in the maintenance of stable financial environment and the promotion of economic and technological development.
Followed by empirical analysis, to verify the economic openness of China's impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy, we believe that the study of the effectiveness of monetary policy, it is necessary to separate from the monetary policy tools, monetary policy transmission channels and the ultimate goal of monetary policy to the point of view, monetary policy effects is to study the specific terms of the economic openness of China's monetary policy tools to choose the impact of economic openness in China's monetary policy transmission channels for the role, to explore whether the effects of economic openness to reach the ultimate goal of monetary policy, as well as the specific economic openness on the the impact of monetary policy. In this paper, the evidence was found:(1) from the point of view of monetary policy, trade openness and financial openness has a stable effects to the base currency, with the increase in economic openness, for the increasing endogenous of base money, the central bank control the ability of base money been lowered. (2) from the monetary policy point of view, trade openness and financial openness are affected the main channels of monetary transmission, of which, trade openness Granger credit reasons conduction; conduction rate of trade openness and financial openness Granger causes; the stock market value and financial openness Granger causality to each other; financial openness and trade openness Granger are the reasons for the exchange rate, as China's exchange rate system reform and development, open economies the exchange rate under the conduction the role of the channels will be further apparent.(3) from the point of view for the ultimate goal of monetary policy, the financial openness of conduction channels through the interest rates and capital market impact of transmission channels of price level, price level increased with the financial openness, therefore, for the higher degrees of financial liberalization, the central bank's ability weaker to control the prices, and the effectiveness of monetary policy lower; trade openness and the money supply and output had the cointegration relationship stability, and in the long run the level of output by the impact of trade openness with persistently, trade openness impact on output is greater than the impact of money supply done.
Finally, this paper give policy recommendations to enhance the effectiveness of China's monetary policy, that is under the conditions of an open economy in China's macro-economic policy must be the internal coordination and external coordination of the combination of monetary policy and financial supervision combination. China's government and monetary authorities need to focus on domestic monetary policy and fiscal policy coordination, strengthen the international monetary policy coordination, and improve supervision of domestic financial system, strengthen international coordination of financial supervision.
引文
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1贸易条件是指出口价格指数与进口价格指数之比,贸易条件比值上升,表示贸易条件改善。反之,则贸易条件恶化(张晓朴,1999)。
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