青岛市崂山区水资源可持续利用研究
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摘要
水资源可持续利用是可持续发展理论框架下水资源利用的一种新模式,是实现社会、经济及生态环境可持续发展极为重要的保证,也是在总体上解决水资源危机、确保区域可持续发展的根本方法。所以,对水资源可持续利用的研究具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。
本文在分析青岛市崂山区水资源利用现状的基础上,运用水力学、系统动力学和层次分析法,对区域水环境容量、水资源优化配置和水资源复合系统安全预警进行了系统的研究,主要得到以下结论:
1、随着经济建设、城市化的发展和人民生活水平的不断提高,崂山区水资源需求量正在并将继续急剧增加,且由于区域水资源时空分布不均衡,新水源开发、客水调入难度大,部分地区已出现水资源紧缺状况。作为根本解决水资源危机的重要途径,水资源优化配置与管理势在必行。
2、结合崂山区的河流特点确立了崂山区水体的环境容量的核算模型,并参照相近水体的实测水质、水文数据资料,建立了流速和流量、综合衰减系数和流速之间的相关关系;以CODMn和氨氮为控制指标,核算出了崂山区水体的水环境容量,在50%保证率设计条件下CODMn和氨氮的水环境容量分别为2595.69t/a和27.50t/a;在75%保证率设计条件下,分别为1497.33t/a和11.62t/a;在90%保证率设计条件下,分别为819.84t/a和5.33t/a。从而为水资源优化配置研究中CODMn排放量提供了约束条件。
3、依照水资源配置基本理论,采用系统动力学VENSIM软件,以水资源供需平衡为核心,以节水压力为纽带,以生活、经济、农业和生态用水效益统一为前提,建立了崂山区以水环境容量和水资源承载力为限制条件、以可持续发展为目标的水资源优化配置模型;通过模拟优化方案显示,崂山区2010年、2020年和2030年的可利用水资源量分别为5570.00、8192.33和12139.00万m3;水资源需求量分别为4491.56、7343.47和12593.5万m3;水资源承载度分别为0.81、0.90和0.97,基本达到平衡;CODMn排放量为分别为691.84、931.85和889.14t,水环境容量承载度均小于1,分别为0.46、0.62和0.59,符合水资源保护的要求;基本能够满足社会经济发展对水资源的需求。
4、从可持续发展“发展度”、“持续度”和“协调度”的角度出发,提出了水资源复合系统的可持续发展安全预警综合评价方法,以适应水资源复合系统可持续发展多维空间和多目标的基本特征。评价表明,崂山区历年水资源复合系统安全预警综合分值不高,基本处于“弱不可持续”的状态,社会经济发展需水量的增长和结构失调是其主要原因。从长远来看,崂山区水资源可持续性状态会成为限制区域社会经济可持续发展的主要因素,因此提高社会经济子系统可持续能力,如降低单位产值的用水定额、提高用水效率等已迫在眉睫。对于水环境子系统,也应该增加环保投入、加大治污力度,进一步降低污染物的排放量。水资源复合系统安全预警是区域水资源管理的重要内容之一,也是对区域水资源可持续利用量化的一种探索。
Sustainable use of water resources is a new process under the framework of sustainable development, which can guarantee the sustainable development of society, economy and ecological environment. Also it can settle the crisis of water resources.Therefore, the research on sustainable use of water resources has important theoretical and practical value.
Based on the analysis of Laoshan District, the research was carried on including water environment capacity, water allocation and forewarning evaluation. Hydraulics, System Dynamics(SD) and analytic hierarchy process(APH) are applied in the research. The main contents and conclusions are as following:
1. With economic development, urbanization and continuous improvement of people's living standards, the demand of water resources in Laoshan District will continue to increase dramatically. It’s difficult to exploit the new water resources locally and import external water resources because of uneven temporal and spatial distribution. As the fundamental solution to settle the crisis of water resources, the optimized allocation and management of water resources is imperative.
2. Water environmental capacity (WEC) model was set up combined with the characteristics of the river in Laoshan District. And the correlation between velocity and flow, attenuation coefficient and velocity according to the water quality and hydrology tested data of close water body. The WEC of Laoshan District was calculated regarding CODMn and Ammonia-N as the control parameters. When the Guarantee Rate is 50%,the WEC for CODMn and Ammonia-N is 2595.69t/a and 27.50t/a respectively. When the Guarantee Rate is 75%,the WEC for CODMn and Ammonia-N is 1497.33t/a and11.62t/a. When the Guarantee Rate is 90%,the WEC for CODMn and Ammonia-N is 819.84t/a and 5.33t/a. The results of WEC is very important to the water optimized allocation.
3. The software VENSIM is applied to set up the water allocation model for Laoshan District according to the basic theory of water allocation. The objective of this model is to insure the sustainable development. And the limitations are water environmental capacity and water resources capacity. The simulation results show that the available water amount is 55.70, 81.92 and 121.39 million ton in the year of 2010、2020 and 2030 respectively. And the amount of water demand is 44.91, 73.43 and 125.93 million ton respectively. The water resources capacity is 0.81, 0.90 and 0.97. The discharge of CODMn is 691.84、931.85 and 889.14 ton respectively. And the water environmental capacity is 0.46, 0.62 and 0.59 respectively. The supply of water resources can meet the demand for development in the mass.
4. Sustainable development includes“development”,“sustainability”and“coordination”. Therefor the multi-objective evaluation method was set up to assess the water complex system. The results show that the value of Laoshan Distrct is not high because of the dramatic increase and imbalance incurred by the development of economic. In the long run, the sustainability of water resources will restrict the development of Laoshan District. So the sustainability of sub-system in the water compound system should be improved.
本文在分析青岛市崂山区水资源利用现状的基础上,运用水力学、系统动力学和层次分析法,对区域水环境容量、水资源优化配置和水资源复合系统安全预警进行了系统的研究,主要得到以下结论:
1、随着经济建设、城市化的发展和人民生活水平的不断提高,崂山区水资源需求量正在并将继续急剧增加,且由于区域水资源时空分布不均衡,新水源开发、客水调入难度大,部分地区已出现水资源紧缺状况。作为根本解决水资源危机的重要途径,水资源优化配置与管理势在必行。
2、结合崂山区的河流特点确立了崂山区水体的环境容量的核算模型,并参照相近水体的实测水质、水文数据资料,建立了流速和流量、综合衰减系数和流速之间的相关关系;以CODMn和氨氮为控制指标,核算出了崂山区水体的水环境容量,在50%保证率设计条件下CODMn和氨氮的水环境容量分别为2595.69t/a和27.50t/a;在75%保证率设计条件下,分别为1497.33t/a和11.62t/a;在90%保证率设计条件下,分别为819.84t/a和5.33t/a。从而为水资源优化配置研究中CODMn排放量提供了约束条件。
3、依照水资源配置基本理论,采用系统动力学VENSIM软件,以水资源供需平衡为核心,以节水压力为纽带,以生活、经济、农业和生态用水效益统一为前提,建立了崂山区以水环境容量和水资源承载力为限制条件、以可持续发展为目标的水资源优化配置模型;通过模拟优化方案显示,崂山区2010年、2020年和2030年的可利用水资源量分别为5570.00、8192.33和12139.00万m3;水资源需求量分别为4491.56、7343.47和12593.5万m3;水资源承载度分别为0.81、0.90和0.97,基本达到平衡;CODMn排放量为分别为691.84、931.85和889.14t,水环境容量承载度均小于1,分别为0.46、0.62和0.59,符合水资源保护的要求;基本能够满足社会经济发展对水资源的需求。
4、从可持续发展“发展度”、“持续度”和“协调度”的角度出发,提出了水资源复合系统的可持续发展安全预警综合评价方法,以适应水资源复合系统可持续发展多维空间和多目标的基本特征。评价表明,崂山区历年水资源复合系统安全预警综合分值不高,基本处于“弱不可持续”的状态,社会经济发展需水量的增长和结构失调是其主要原因。从长远来看,崂山区水资源可持续性状态会成为限制区域社会经济可持续发展的主要因素,因此提高社会经济子系统可持续能力,如降低单位产值的用水定额、提高用水效率等已迫在眉睫。对于水环境子系统,也应该增加环保投入、加大治污力度,进一步降低污染物的排放量。水资源复合系统安全预警是区域水资源管理的重要内容之一,也是对区域水资源可持续利用量化的一种探索。
Sustainable use of water resources is a new process under the framework of sustainable development, which can guarantee the sustainable development of society, economy and ecological environment. Also it can settle the crisis of water resources.Therefore, the research on sustainable use of water resources has important theoretical and practical value.
Based on the analysis of Laoshan District, the research was carried on including water environment capacity, water allocation and forewarning evaluation. Hydraulics, System Dynamics(SD) and analytic hierarchy process(APH) are applied in the research. The main contents and conclusions are as following:
1. With economic development, urbanization and continuous improvement of people's living standards, the demand of water resources in Laoshan District will continue to increase dramatically. It’s difficult to exploit the new water resources locally and import external water resources because of uneven temporal and spatial distribution. As the fundamental solution to settle the crisis of water resources, the optimized allocation and management of water resources is imperative.
2. Water environmental capacity (WEC) model was set up combined with the characteristics of the river in Laoshan District. And the correlation between velocity and flow, attenuation coefficient and velocity according to the water quality and hydrology tested data of close water body. The WEC of Laoshan District was calculated regarding CODMn and Ammonia-N as the control parameters. When the Guarantee Rate is 50%,the WEC for CODMn and Ammonia-N is 2595.69t/a and 27.50t/a respectively. When the Guarantee Rate is 75%,the WEC for CODMn and Ammonia-N is 1497.33t/a and11.62t/a. When the Guarantee Rate is 90%,the WEC for CODMn and Ammonia-N is 819.84t/a and 5.33t/a. The results of WEC is very important to the water optimized allocation.
3. The software VENSIM is applied to set up the water allocation model for Laoshan District according to the basic theory of water allocation. The objective of this model is to insure the sustainable development. And the limitations are water environmental capacity and water resources capacity. The simulation results show that the available water amount is 55.70, 81.92 and 121.39 million ton in the year of 2010、2020 and 2030 respectively. And the amount of water demand is 44.91, 73.43 and 125.93 million ton respectively. The water resources capacity is 0.81, 0.90 and 0.97. The discharge of CODMn is 691.84、931.85 and 889.14 ton respectively. And the water environmental capacity is 0.46, 0.62 and 0.59 respectively. The supply of water resources can meet the demand for development in the mass.
4. Sustainable development includes“development”,“sustainability”and“coordination”. Therefor the multi-objective evaluation method was set up to assess the water complex system. The results show that the value of Laoshan Distrct is not high because of the dramatic increase and imbalance incurred by the development of economic. In the long run, the sustainability of water resources will restrict the development of Laoshan District. So the sustainability of sub-system in the water compound system should be improved.
引文
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