高新技术企业研发项目中止决策研究
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摘要
本文以高新技术企业研发(R&D)项目创新成功率低为背景,在分析R&D活动特点的基础上,详细研究了中止决策的模式和方法,构建了一个综合的、动态的R&D项目中止决策模型。
在已有研究的基础上,结合R&D活动决策特点,论文引用定性、定量分析相结合的方法构建中止决策模型。论文得出如下主要结论:
(1)提出了一个企业R&D项目活动决策模型。以R&D过程管理为依据,本文将R&D项目过程划分为初步筛选、评估立项、开发、产品化、市场化五个阶段,明确各阶段评估决策点。较已有的三阶段、六阶段等划分方式,五阶段活动决策模型更能描述研究开发的实际过程,体现决策的动态性,利于决策时机的选择;
(2)建立R&D项目各阶段影响指标集。影响指标是对项目横向评价的关键,鉴于已有指标集不具备行业特点、风险涵盖不全、未分阶段考虑等缺陷,本文建立了环境、组织、技术、市场相关四大类、共71个影响指标,并结合每个R&D阶段活动特点筛选出分阶段影响指标集,圈定了R&D各阶段影响指标的选择范围,可为企业借鉴和参考;
(3)提出一个动态权变指标选择模型。论文改进的这一模型能够兼顾项目本身的特质和项目所处的阶段筛选出主要影响指标,即建立了“时间+特质”双重动态因素与指标权重之间的对应关系,使企业在不同的决策点对R&D项目进行横向评估时,能够迅速排除影响因素噪音,准确定位,提高中止决策效率;
(4)建立通信制造行业R&D项目各阶段显著指标集。本文以通信制造企业为例,通过基于德尔菲法实证调研采集到的40余位专家的样本数据,建立了具备该行业特点的R&D项目各阶段显著指标集,并验证了动态模型的建模思路。
(5)选择一种改进粗糙集的中止决策定量分析方法进行中止决策判别,能够得出是否中止的直观结论。论文采用的这一方法既充分利用了粗糙集分类决策的特点,又解决了目前企业R&D项目中止决策中因保存的历史样本较小造成粗糙集属性约简计算量大、特征提取规律不明显等问题。最后,案例证明了该方法的有效性。
实证研究证明,本文通过科学的方法构建的模型,能够有效应用于高新技术企业R&D项目中止决策,具有实践价值。
The efficiency of innovation in high-tech R&D projects was still low. This paper tried to explore modeling methods of R&D project termination decision with qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. The main conclusions were as follows:
(1) To put forward a kind of decision model of the process management of R&D project based on R&D activities in corporation. The paper divided R&D project processes into five stages: elementary selection, evaluation and planning, R&D , conducting ,marketing. Compared with three-stages or six-stage management decision models proposed by some studies, the five-stages model could describe real process more clearly, and find the key point of evaluation more easily.
(2) To Set up an initial set of variables influencing the output of R&D projects in every stage. These influence factors were identified and have high and significant discrimination strength for the output of R&D project during landscape orientation evaluation in different stage. The paper classified four types of factors influencing decision process management of R&D: Environment related, Organization related , Market related and Technology Related.what's more, seventy-one sub-factors of overall four types were brought forward and discussed.
(3) To propose a contingency framework for R&D project evalution. This structure can provide a better understanding of the factors that influence success of a R&D project;The connection among characters and factors in every stage was also discussed.This contingency framework could help managers in corporations find the important factors easily and improve decision efficiency.
(4) To Set up a set of key variables influencing the output of R&D projects in every process for communicatory manufacturing. With Demonstration research , a large-scale survey on termination decision of R&D project in communicatory manufacturing was carried out, a statistical analysis was carried out whose data were collected from more than 40 experts, and factors making high and significant discrimination strength for the output of R&D project were identified, and validated correct thinking about factor-selected model.
(5) A kind of decision algorithm of R&D project termination based on improved rough set theory was proposed. This method could resolve the questions that calculation of reduction is huge and characteristic is not clear ,when there are few samples of R&D project to same extent. It could discern the classification of R&D project with uncertain feature so as to make decision of termination. The easibility and validity of this algorithm were testified by the instances from a large-scaled enterprises.
Be testified by the instances, the methods of R&D project termination decision in this paper had a good practical application in high-tech corporations.
在已有研究的基础上,结合R&D活动决策特点,论文引用定性、定量分析相结合的方法构建中止决策模型。论文得出如下主要结论:
(1)提出了一个企业R&D项目活动决策模型。以R&D过程管理为依据,本文将R&D项目过程划分为初步筛选、评估立项、开发、产品化、市场化五个阶段,明确各阶段评估决策点。较已有的三阶段、六阶段等划分方式,五阶段活动决策模型更能描述研究开发的实际过程,体现决策的动态性,利于决策时机的选择;
(2)建立R&D项目各阶段影响指标集。影响指标是对项目横向评价的关键,鉴于已有指标集不具备行业特点、风险涵盖不全、未分阶段考虑等缺陷,本文建立了环境、组织、技术、市场相关四大类、共71个影响指标,并结合每个R&D阶段活动特点筛选出分阶段影响指标集,圈定了R&D各阶段影响指标的选择范围,可为企业借鉴和参考;
(3)提出一个动态权变指标选择模型。论文改进的这一模型能够兼顾项目本身的特质和项目所处的阶段筛选出主要影响指标,即建立了“时间+特质”双重动态因素与指标权重之间的对应关系,使企业在不同的决策点对R&D项目进行横向评估时,能够迅速排除影响因素噪音,准确定位,提高中止决策效率;
(4)建立通信制造行业R&D项目各阶段显著指标集。本文以通信制造企业为例,通过基于德尔菲法实证调研采集到的40余位专家的样本数据,建立了具备该行业特点的R&D项目各阶段显著指标集,并验证了动态模型的建模思路。
(5)选择一种改进粗糙集的中止决策定量分析方法进行中止决策判别,能够得出是否中止的直观结论。论文采用的这一方法既充分利用了粗糙集分类决策的特点,又解决了目前企业R&D项目中止决策中因保存的历史样本较小造成粗糙集属性约简计算量大、特征提取规律不明显等问题。最后,案例证明了该方法的有效性。
实证研究证明,本文通过科学的方法构建的模型,能够有效应用于高新技术企业R&D项目中止决策,具有实践价值。
The efficiency of innovation in high-tech R&D projects was still low. This paper tried to explore modeling methods of R&D project termination decision with qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. The main conclusions were as follows:
(1) To put forward a kind of decision model of the process management of R&D project based on R&D activities in corporation. The paper divided R&D project processes into five stages: elementary selection, evaluation and planning, R&D , conducting ,marketing. Compared with three-stages or six-stage management decision models proposed by some studies, the five-stages model could describe real process more clearly, and find the key point of evaluation more easily.
(2) To Set up an initial set of variables influencing the output of R&D projects in every stage. These influence factors were identified and have high and significant discrimination strength for the output of R&D project during landscape orientation evaluation in different stage. The paper classified four types of factors influencing decision process management of R&D: Environment related, Organization related , Market related and Technology Related.what's more, seventy-one sub-factors of overall four types were brought forward and discussed.
(3) To propose a contingency framework for R&D project evalution. This structure can provide a better understanding of the factors that influence success of a R&D project;The connection among characters and factors in every stage was also discussed.This contingency framework could help managers in corporations find the important factors easily and improve decision efficiency.
(4) To Set up a set of key variables influencing the output of R&D projects in every process for communicatory manufacturing. With Demonstration research , a large-scale survey on termination decision of R&D project in communicatory manufacturing was carried out, a statistical analysis was carried out whose data were collected from more than 40 experts, and factors making high and significant discrimination strength for the output of R&D project were identified, and validated correct thinking about factor-selected model.
(5) A kind of decision algorithm of R&D project termination based on improved rough set theory was proposed. This method could resolve the questions that calculation of reduction is huge and characteristic is not clear ,when there are few samples of R&D project to same extent. It could discern the classification of R&D project with uncertain feature so as to make decision of termination. The easibility and validity of this algorithm were testified by the instances from a large-scaled enterprises.
Be testified by the instances, the methods of R&D project termination decision in this paper had a good practical application in high-tech corporations.
引文
[1]C.K.Buell.When to Terminate a Research and Development Projects[J].Research Technology Management 1967,10(4):275-283
[2]Brockhoff K.R&D project termination decisions by discriminant analysis---An international comparison[J].IEEE TRANS on EM,1972,41(3):245-253
[3]J.M.Utterback."Innovation in industry and the diffusion of technology,"Science,vol.183,pp.658-662,Feb.15,1974
[4]A.H.Rubenstein,A.K.Chakrabarti,R.D.O'Keefe,W.E.Sounder,and H.C.Young,"Factors influencing innovation success at the project level," Res.Manage.,pp.15-20,May 1976
[5]Pawlak Z.Rough sets.International Journal of computer and Information Science,11(1982):341-356
[6]R.Balachandra,J A Raelin.When to kill that R&D project research[J].Technology Managemen,1984,27(4):30-33
[7]J.K.Pinto.Critical Factors in Successful Project implementation[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management.1987,34(1):22-27
[8]Jonathan F.Bard,Ramaiya Balachandra,Pedro E.Kaufmann.An Interactive Approach to R&D Project Selection and Termination[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management.Vol 35,No.3,August 1988,139-146
[9]R.Balachandra.Early Warning Signals for R&D Project.Lexington[M],MA:Lexington Books,1989
[10]Pinto.Causes of Project Failure[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management.May 1990,37(4):269-275
[11]Pawlak Z.Rough sets:Theoretical Aspects of Reasoning about Data.Kluwer Academic Publishers,Boston,1991
[12]Slowinski R.Intelligent Decision Support:Handbook of Applications and Advances of Rough Sets Theory[M],Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic Publisher.1992
[13]New-Product troubles,have firms cutting back.The Wall Street Journal[-N],1992,13
[14]王守荣.研究与开发项目中止的经济分析.科学学研究,1994年2期
[15]Klaus Brockhoff.R & D Project Termination Decision by Discriminant Analysis-An international comparison[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management.Vol41,No.3,August 1994,245-254
[16]R.Balachandra and Klaus Brockhoff.Are R&D Project Termination Factors Universal? Research Management,1995,,July-August,31-36
[17]R.Balachandra.A Comparison of R&D Project Termination Factors in Four Industrial Nations[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management.Vol 43,No.1,August 1996,88-96
[18]Vinod Kumar,Aditha N.S.Persaud,and Uma Kumar.To Terminate or Not an Ongoing R&D Project:A Managerial Dilemma[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management.Vol 43,No.3,August 1996,273-284
[19]R.Balachandra,and John H.Friar.Factors for Success in R$D Projects and New Product Innoation:A Contextual Framework[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management.Vol 44,No.3,August 1997,276-287
[20]官建成,张华胜,高柏杨.政府政策对北京地区企业技术创新影响的实证分析.科学学与科学技术管理,19(7),1998
[21]Partricia M.S.TAN.Project Termination Decisions,Underinvestment and Overinvestment.[J].Contemporary Accounting Research,Vol.17 No.1 Spring 2000:135-170
[22]董景荣,杨秀苔.R&D项目中止决策的有效性分析,2000.1
[23]曹彦斌,官建成.项目中止决策的FUZZY综合评判方法之实证研究,2000.4
[24]官建成,刘权,薛荆枝.R&D项目中止决策的系统研究进展.中国学术期刊文摘,6(1),2000:124-125
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[28]官建成,刘权,曹彦斌.R&D项目中止决策的实证研究.北京航空航天大学学报,2001.12
[29]官建成,刘权.综合统计方法在R&D项目中止决策中的应用.系统工程学报,16(6),2001.12:450-455
[30]张文修.粗糙集理论与方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2001
[31]席酋民,杨列勋.R&D项目评估整体模型研究.系统工程理论与实践,2002.2:105-112.
[32]刘权,官建成.基于Hamming神经网络的R&D项目中止决策方法.自动化学报,2002.3
[33]刘权,官建成.北京地区工业企业R&D-NPD项目动态监控.科学学研究, 2002.4
[34]朱家元,张恒喜.基于支持矢量机的R&D项目中止决策研究.计算机科学,29(9),2002
[35]孙佰清,王小唯等.基于区域映射模型的R&D项目中止决策.哈尔滨工业大学学报,2002.8
[36]席酉民,杨列勋.R&D项目评估整体模型研究.系统工程理论与实践,2002.10
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[2]Brockhoff K.R&D project termination decisions by discriminant analysis---An international comparison[J].IEEE TRANS on EM,1972,41(3):245-253
[3]J.M.Utterback."Innovation in industry and the diffusion of technology,"Science,vol.183,pp.658-662,Feb.15,1974
[4]A.H.Rubenstein,A.K.Chakrabarti,R.D.O'Keefe,W.E.Sounder,and H.C.Young,"Factors influencing innovation success at the project level," Res.Manage.,pp.15-20,May 1976
[5]Pawlak Z.Rough sets.International Journal of computer and Information Science,11(1982):341-356
[6]R.Balachandra,J A Raelin.When to kill that R&D project research[J].Technology Managemen,1984,27(4):30-33
[7]J.K.Pinto.Critical Factors in Successful Project implementation[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management.1987,34(1):22-27
[8]Jonathan F.Bard,Ramaiya Balachandra,Pedro E.Kaufmann.An Interactive Approach to R&D Project Selection and Termination[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management.Vol 35,No.3,August 1988,139-146
[9]R.Balachandra.Early Warning Signals for R&D Project.Lexington[M],MA:Lexington Books,1989
[10]Pinto.Causes of Project Failure[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management.May 1990,37(4):269-275
[11]Pawlak Z.Rough sets:Theoretical Aspects of Reasoning about Data.Kluwer Academic Publishers,Boston,1991
[12]Slowinski R.Intelligent Decision Support:Handbook of Applications and Advances of Rough Sets Theory[M],Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic Publisher.1992
[13]New-Product troubles,have firms cutting back.The Wall Street Journal[-N],1992,13
[14]王守荣.研究与开发项目中止的经济分析.科学学研究,1994年2期
[15]Klaus Brockhoff.R & D Project Termination Decision by Discriminant Analysis-An international comparison[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management.Vol41,No.3,August 1994,245-254
[16]R.Balachandra and Klaus Brockhoff.Are R&D Project Termination Factors Universal? Research Management,1995,,July-August,31-36
[17]R.Balachandra.A Comparison of R&D Project Termination Factors in Four Industrial Nations[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management.Vol 43,No.1,August 1996,88-96
[18]Vinod Kumar,Aditha N.S.Persaud,and Uma Kumar.To Terminate or Not an Ongoing R&D Project:A Managerial Dilemma[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management.Vol 43,No.3,August 1996,273-284
[19]R.Balachandra,and John H.Friar.Factors for Success in R$D Projects and New Product Innoation:A Contextual Framework[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management.Vol 44,No.3,August 1997,276-287
[20]官建成,张华胜,高柏杨.政府政策对北京地区企业技术创新影响的实证分析.科学学与科学技术管理,19(7),1998
[21]Partricia M.S.TAN.Project Termination Decisions,Underinvestment and Overinvestment.[J].Contemporary Accounting Research,Vol.17 No.1 Spring 2000:135-170
[22]董景荣,杨秀苔.R&D项目中止决策的有效性分析,2000.1
[23]曹彦斌,官建成.项目中止决策的FUZZY综合评判方法之实证研究,2000.4
[24]官建成,刘权,薛荆枝.R&D项目中止决策的系统研究进展.中国学术期刊文摘,6(1),2000:124-125
[25]董景荣.R&D项目中止决策的小波网络模式识别[J].管理科学学报,2001.2
[26]刘景江,郑刚,杨雪梅.国内外R&D项目评价研究述评.研究与发展管理,2001.8
[27]刘景江,郑刚,许庆瑞.国外R&D项目测度与评价研究述评.科研管理,22(6),2001:9-14
[28]官建成,刘权,曹彦斌.R&D项目中止决策的实证研究.北京航空航天大学学报,2001.12
[29]官建成,刘权.综合统计方法在R&D项目中止决策中的应用.系统工程学报,16(6),2001.12:450-455
[30]张文修.粗糙集理论与方法[M].北京:科学出版社,2001
[31]席酋民,杨列勋.R&D项目评估整体模型研究.系统工程理论与实践,2002.2:105-112.
[32]刘权,官建成.基于Hamming神经网络的R&D项目中止决策方法.自动化学报,2002.3
[33]刘权,官建成.北京地区工业企业R&D-NPD项目动态监控.科学学研究, 2002.4
[34]朱家元,张恒喜.基于支持矢量机的R&D项目中止决策研究.计算机科学,29(9),2002
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