基于延迟期权的专利价值评估方法研究
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摘要
国家产业结构的升级、国际竞争力的提高都有赖于知识和技术的进步,专利数量成为科技产出的测度及创新结果的指标。专利也被看成是某项新发明市场前景的指标,注册了专利的发明可能产生的经济影响表现为新产品的出现、已有技术的改善,从而会带来市场格局的变动。因此,专利常常被视作是圈占市场的利器。我国的专利申请量和授权量快速增加,三种专利的内在结构比例日渐完善。这些都为专利的商业化和专利的交易、以及企业内部的专利管理提供了重要的数量基础。然而,对专利的货币价值进行衡量是这些有关专利的活动最终得以良好进行的另外一个重要基础。
本文的主要研究目的:
专利价值的实现最终要落脚在实施上,而专利实施时机的不同会对专利价值产生较大的影响。因此,确定专利的实施时机不仅对专利的价值评估有重要的意义而且对专利的管理起着基础性的作用。已有的专利评估方法都不能对何时实施专利进行有效指导,因此本文借鉴并改进了实物期权中延迟期权的模型。旨在将专利价值和专利的执行时机结合起来,以期能对大量未开发专利的管理以及合理开发专利提供一些理论指导。
本文的主要内容:
对专利价值评估涉及到的基本概念及其内涵作了探讨,并从法律、技术、经济等方面分析了影响专利价值的各种因素。将影响专利价值的因素简化为:投资专利技术的成本、市场价值(市场需求)的不确定性、竞争状况等三大因素。将要评价专利的种类分为价值创造型和成本节约型。对于前者,假定其评估环境为完全垄断市场;对于后者,假定其评估环境为双寡头垄断市场。
在综述了传统的专利评价方法、数量经济学的方法、金融期权的方法以及一般的实物期权方法、延迟投资期权方法的基础上,结合本文的研究目的,确定了本文要采用的方法--延迟期权方法,在已有模型的基础上,提出了更符合专利特性的价值评估模型。
继而,对两大类专利的价值评估进行了模型建立,对模型中变量对专利价值的影响进行了分析并用Matlab进行了数值模拟:
对于垄断市场下的价值创造型专利,在已有研究的基础上,主要构建了在无限寿命、有无技术进步以及其它突发性的因素影响下的投资门槛确定及价值评估的模型,以及如何对专利的有限年限进行处理以便使其能够采用评估模型进行了探索。
对于双寡头垄断市场条件下的成本节约型专利,假定已有的古诺模型和斯塔博格模型中的市场需求量服从几何布朗运动,并分析了不同均衡类型下的企业各自的产量选择对新技术投资时机的影响。最后,对突发事件以及专利的保护年限的处理以便使得该模型在逻辑上能更加适应现实情况进行了一点的尝试。
主要创新点:
第一,借用实物期权中的最佳执行时机模型,将专利的最佳执行时机与其价值结合起来,并考虑了新技术的出现等市场突发事件对专利价值的影响,已有的模型仅仅考虑了存在单个负向影响的跳跃性事件时,投资门槛与期权价值的关系。本文运用概率计算,将不同类型的跳跃事件归结为一项跳跃事件。由于原来的模型假定项目是无限年限的,本文参照已有的采用B-S模型对专利价值评估时对专利年限的处理办法,将专利保护年限的终止也视为一种跳跃过程,并借鉴已有的概率计算公式,设计了将专利保护年限转换为跳跃事件时的参数计算方法,从而使得该延迟期权模型能够更准确地评价专利价值,对投资者而言,能够得到更合理的投资门槛值也有助于其做出投资决策。
第二,将最佳投资门槛的思想引入到并非总能形成垄断优势的成本节约型专利上,假定该专利处在双寡头垄断市场上且市场的需求量是不确定的,但是其变化趋势服从几何布朗运动,已有的模型没有考虑市场的需求量也会受到突然出现的新技术等突发性因素的影响,本文对已有的模型加入新的参数,并推导出添加新变量后的分布函数的表达式及分析了新参数对投资门槛的影响。同样,也将成本节约型专利的法律保护年限的终止视为一种突发性事件,通过本文提出的转化步骤能够计算出突发性事件发生的概率,从而运用本文推导的公式能够更加准确地计算出投资门槛和期权价值。
第三,已有的模型仅仅分析了不存在产量决策优势的古诺均衡时两个企业的投资门槛确定问题。而本文分析了采用新旧技术时可能存在的不同类型的均衡时的投资门槛以及内生性的投资决策战略选择问题。
主要研究方法及结论:
本文从新的视角对已有的数学模型的参数进行了补充或者做了新的假设,从而形成了改进型的专利价值评价模型,并用Matlab进行了数据仿真,得到的结果在逻辑上与现实情况是吻合的。
由于时间和研究领域的限制,本文仅仅在逻辑上以及仿真方法测试上验证了专利价值评估的模型的有效性,而没有通过具体的专利来验证该模型。
Industrial construction upgrading and nation's competence enhancement are both relayed on the improvement of knowledge and technological development. And patent is used as the indicator of output of science and technology and the result of innovation. Also patent is looked as the indicator of technology's application in the market which affects the market through providing new products or reducing produce cost. Owing to its ability to prevent other competitors from entering a certain market, patent is always thought of as a kind of weapon to enclose the territory. In China, patent application and granted patent has been growing quickly and the inner construction of three kinds patent is highly upgraded. There are sufficient patent to form trade market and the foundation of patent management .However, the transaction and the inner management is greatly depended on the patent evaluation which can help relevant person know the patent's value by currency.
Purpose of this article:
The patent value only through being applied in the real world can be attained and under what condition to industrialize it is also play an important role on its value. So to make sure the investment threshold can not only be essential to the patent evaluation but to patent management. This article aims to combine the patent value to its optimal investment time so that the theory can be used to guide patent industrialization and undeveloped patent management. Owing to lack of the related evaluating method to play this role, the exist model are improved to fill up the gap.
Main content:
This article discusses the basic concepts and its connotation. Also analyzes the factors affect the patent value in the respective of law, technology and economy. And all the factors are simplified into investment cost, market value uncertain and competitiveness. And the utility of patents are classified into 2 groups which are value-creating and cost-reducing. For the former, the monopoly market structure is assumed, the latter, the duopoly market structure.
After reviewing the present methods used to patent evaluation such as three traditional methods, mathematic economic method, financial option method and real option method, combining with the purpose of this article, the option-to-delay methodis thought to be a better method. And based on the exist model, some improvementsare provided attempting to make them more harmonious with patent's nature.
What follows are that two groups of models are proposed according to the patentgroups and how the variables affects the patent in the models are analyzed andsimulated through Matlab software.
To the value-creating patent in the monopoly market, the models to evaluate theindefinite patent with two different kinds of leaps are constructed based on the existmodel. And also the patent life-span is considered and transferred into a kind of leapsso that the model is suitable to get more accurate investment threshold and patentvalue.
To the cost-reducing patent in duopoly market, market demand is assumed to followthe distribution of Geometric Brown move. The Cournot duopoly model equilibriummodel and Stackelberg equilibrium model are adopted and their different influence onthe investment threshold is also analyzed. In the end the leap factors and life span ofpatent are dealt by using a passion distribution to make the model more fit to reality.
Innovations:
1. Borrowing the optional investment model of real option, the improved models are proposed by complementing some variable to represent the hazard and upward-leap accident. And the original model assumed the project is indefinite, in this article the life-span of patent is looked as a kind of downward-leap so that the improved model can be used to evaluate patent with definite life-span. For the patent holders, they can get more accurate investment threshold for the individual patent.
2. The idea of investment threshold is introduced to the cost-reducing patents which are assumed to stand in the duopoly market. And the market demand is assumed to be uncertain and follow the distribution of Geometric Brown move. Then different interactions between competitors are analyzed and whose effects on patent value are also analyzed. Hazards such as new technology appearing and consumer appetite changing suddenly are also added to the model through additional variable.
3. Analyzing what kind of equilibrium can be reached in what kind of different strategies and which factors affect the chioce of strategy.
Method and conclusion:
Mathematic model and Matlab simulation are used. Based on the existing model and nature of patent, new variables are added and new assumption is given to the old variable so that improved models come into being. The results of simulation verify that the model can reflect reality logically.
Owing to the limits of time and research field, the dissertation only test the model logically and by simulating without a real patent being as a evaluating object.
本文的主要研究目的:
专利价值的实现最终要落脚在实施上,而专利实施时机的不同会对专利价值产生较大的影响。因此,确定专利的实施时机不仅对专利的价值评估有重要的意义而且对专利的管理起着基础性的作用。已有的专利评估方法都不能对何时实施专利进行有效指导,因此本文借鉴并改进了实物期权中延迟期权的模型。旨在将专利价值和专利的执行时机结合起来,以期能对大量未开发专利的管理以及合理开发专利提供一些理论指导。
本文的主要内容:
对专利价值评估涉及到的基本概念及其内涵作了探讨,并从法律、技术、经济等方面分析了影响专利价值的各种因素。将影响专利价值的因素简化为:投资专利技术的成本、市场价值(市场需求)的不确定性、竞争状况等三大因素。将要评价专利的种类分为价值创造型和成本节约型。对于前者,假定其评估环境为完全垄断市场;对于后者,假定其评估环境为双寡头垄断市场。
在综述了传统的专利评价方法、数量经济学的方法、金融期权的方法以及一般的实物期权方法、延迟投资期权方法的基础上,结合本文的研究目的,确定了本文要采用的方法--延迟期权方法,在已有模型的基础上,提出了更符合专利特性的价值评估模型。
继而,对两大类专利的价值评估进行了模型建立,对模型中变量对专利价值的影响进行了分析并用Matlab进行了数值模拟:
对于垄断市场下的价值创造型专利,在已有研究的基础上,主要构建了在无限寿命、有无技术进步以及其它突发性的因素影响下的投资门槛确定及价值评估的模型,以及如何对专利的有限年限进行处理以便使其能够采用评估模型进行了探索。
对于双寡头垄断市场条件下的成本节约型专利,假定已有的古诺模型和斯塔博格模型中的市场需求量服从几何布朗运动,并分析了不同均衡类型下的企业各自的产量选择对新技术投资时机的影响。最后,对突发事件以及专利的保护年限的处理以便使得该模型在逻辑上能更加适应现实情况进行了一点的尝试。
主要创新点:
第一,借用实物期权中的最佳执行时机模型,将专利的最佳执行时机与其价值结合起来,并考虑了新技术的出现等市场突发事件对专利价值的影响,已有的模型仅仅考虑了存在单个负向影响的跳跃性事件时,投资门槛与期权价值的关系。本文运用概率计算,将不同类型的跳跃事件归结为一项跳跃事件。由于原来的模型假定项目是无限年限的,本文参照已有的采用B-S模型对专利价值评估时对专利年限的处理办法,将专利保护年限的终止也视为一种跳跃过程,并借鉴已有的概率计算公式,设计了将专利保护年限转换为跳跃事件时的参数计算方法,从而使得该延迟期权模型能够更准确地评价专利价值,对投资者而言,能够得到更合理的投资门槛值也有助于其做出投资决策。
第二,将最佳投资门槛的思想引入到并非总能形成垄断优势的成本节约型专利上,假定该专利处在双寡头垄断市场上且市场的需求量是不确定的,但是其变化趋势服从几何布朗运动,已有的模型没有考虑市场的需求量也会受到突然出现的新技术等突发性因素的影响,本文对已有的模型加入新的参数,并推导出添加新变量后的分布函数的表达式及分析了新参数对投资门槛的影响。同样,也将成本节约型专利的法律保护年限的终止视为一种突发性事件,通过本文提出的转化步骤能够计算出突发性事件发生的概率,从而运用本文推导的公式能够更加准确地计算出投资门槛和期权价值。
第三,已有的模型仅仅分析了不存在产量决策优势的古诺均衡时两个企业的投资门槛确定问题。而本文分析了采用新旧技术时可能存在的不同类型的均衡时的投资门槛以及内生性的投资决策战略选择问题。
主要研究方法及结论:
本文从新的视角对已有的数学模型的参数进行了补充或者做了新的假设,从而形成了改进型的专利价值评价模型,并用Matlab进行了数据仿真,得到的结果在逻辑上与现实情况是吻合的。
由于时间和研究领域的限制,本文仅仅在逻辑上以及仿真方法测试上验证了专利价值评估的模型的有效性,而没有通过具体的专利来验证该模型。
Industrial construction upgrading and nation's competence enhancement are both relayed on the improvement of knowledge and technological development. And patent is used as the indicator of output of science and technology and the result of innovation. Also patent is looked as the indicator of technology's application in the market which affects the market through providing new products or reducing produce cost. Owing to its ability to prevent other competitors from entering a certain market, patent is always thought of as a kind of weapon to enclose the territory. In China, patent application and granted patent has been growing quickly and the inner construction of three kinds patent is highly upgraded. There are sufficient patent to form trade market and the foundation of patent management .However, the transaction and the inner management is greatly depended on the patent evaluation which can help relevant person know the patent's value by currency.
Purpose of this article:
The patent value only through being applied in the real world can be attained and under what condition to industrialize it is also play an important role on its value. So to make sure the investment threshold can not only be essential to the patent evaluation but to patent management. This article aims to combine the patent value to its optimal investment time so that the theory can be used to guide patent industrialization and undeveloped patent management. Owing to lack of the related evaluating method to play this role, the exist model are improved to fill up the gap.
Main content:
This article discusses the basic concepts and its connotation. Also analyzes the factors affect the patent value in the respective of law, technology and economy. And all the factors are simplified into investment cost, market value uncertain and competitiveness. And the utility of patents are classified into 2 groups which are value-creating and cost-reducing. For the former, the monopoly market structure is assumed, the latter, the duopoly market structure.
After reviewing the present methods used to patent evaluation such as three traditional methods, mathematic economic method, financial option method and real option method, combining with the purpose of this article, the option-to-delay methodis thought to be a better method. And based on the exist model, some improvementsare provided attempting to make them more harmonious with patent's nature.
What follows are that two groups of models are proposed according to the patentgroups and how the variables affects the patent in the models are analyzed andsimulated through Matlab software.
To the value-creating patent in the monopoly market, the models to evaluate theindefinite patent with two different kinds of leaps are constructed based on the existmodel. And also the patent life-span is considered and transferred into a kind of leapsso that the model is suitable to get more accurate investment threshold and patentvalue.
To the cost-reducing patent in duopoly market, market demand is assumed to followthe distribution of Geometric Brown move. The Cournot duopoly model equilibriummodel and Stackelberg equilibrium model are adopted and their different influence onthe investment threshold is also analyzed. In the end the leap factors and life span ofpatent are dealt by using a passion distribution to make the model more fit to reality.
Innovations:
1. Borrowing the optional investment model of real option, the improved models are proposed by complementing some variable to represent the hazard and upward-leap accident. And the original model assumed the project is indefinite, in this article the life-span of patent is looked as a kind of downward-leap so that the improved model can be used to evaluate patent with definite life-span. For the patent holders, they can get more accurate investment threshold for the individual patent.
2. The idea of investment threshold is introduced to the cost-reducing patents which are assumed to stand in the duopoly market. And the market demand is assumed to be uncertain and follow the distribution of Geometric Brown move. Then different interactions between competitors are analyzed and whose effects on patent value are also analyzed. Hazards such as new technology appearing and consumer appetite changing suddenly are also added to the model through additional variable.
3. Analyzing what kind of equilibrium can be reached in what kind of different strategies and which factors affect the chioce of strategy.
Method and conclusion:
Mathematic model and Matlab simulation are used. Based on the existing model and nature of patent, new variables are added and new assumption is given to the old variable so that improved models come into being. The results of simulation verify that the model can reflect reality logically.
Owing to the limits of time and research field, the dissertation only test the model logically and by simulating without a real patent being as a evaluating object.
引文
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