基于生命周期的R&D项目整体评估模型的研究
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摘要
R&D活动的好坏与成败将直接影响着国家、社会的科技发展水平、技术创新能力、经济发展的后劲等方面。因此,对R&D项目的评估于是也逐渐显示了其越来越突出的重要性。R&D项目评估的理论、方法与模型的研究现在还处于一个初步阶段,但其重要性已越来越明显,系统观点也逐渐显现出它的重要性与必要性。从研发项目评估现状看,研发项目评估分为三个阶段:前评估、中评估和后评估。其中前评估和后评估的评价指标比较明确,提高项目中标率和成果获奖率(或成果应用率)往往是研发管理人员追求的目标,效益明显,评估程序比较固定;而中评估则弹性比较大,效益潜在,评估比较复杂。研发项目的实际评估工作中呈现“重两头、轻中间”的情况,没有真正从研发项目生命周期考虑项目的全过程评估。研发项目的生命周期是一个完整的相互联系、项目影响的过程,仅靠加强某一个过程的评估是不科学的,也不可能有效完成项目的目标。
本文将项目评估视为一个整体,考虑到一个具体的R&D项目评估涉及到整个项目生命周期,在对研发项目的特点和内容的研究基础上,结合前人对研发项目的研究,对研发项目生命周期三个阶段的评估——立项评估阶段、进展评估阶段和绩效评估阶段(这里要说明的一点是本文的绩效评估是在R&D活动完成后,对照预先设定的目标,对R&D活动的完成情况、实施过程、实施效果及影响所进行的评估,并为今后的投资或决策提供意见或建议)——进行了研究,对各阶段的评估影响因素进行分析,建立评估指标体系,对各阶段的评估方法进行比选,并建立了简单的评估模型。并以此为基础,分析三个阶段评估的相关性和一致性,将三个阶段联系起来,站在各阶段利益相关者的角度对研发项目进行整体的、系统的分析,筛选出项目评估的影响因素,并建立评估模型。基于生命周期对R&D项目进行整体评估(本文不区分评估和评价)是站在系统、动态的角度对R&D项目进行评估,它是对以往的单一方面或单一阶段的评估进行了综合及补充。
The R&D activity’s quality directly affects the society's science and technology development level, technical innovation ability, economical development and so on stamina.Therefore, R&D project evaluation reveals its prominent importance gradually.The R&D project evaluation theory, method and model research now is at an preliminary stage, but its importance is more and more obvious, the system viewpoint also appears its importance and necessity.Look through the actualities of R&D project evaluation,we can divide the whole evalution into three stages:ex ante evaluation,interim evaluation and ex post evaluation. The ex ante and ex post evaluation index is more explicit, improving the successful bidder rate of the project and the award achieving rate of the production(or the application rate of the production) is always the object of R&D managers,the benefit is evidently and the evaluation procedure is fixed.Interim evaluation is more flexible and complex,and the benefit is potential.So it seems that the evaluation actuality presents“heavy two,light among”,and people have never regard the entire evaluation from the life cycle viewpoint.R&D project’s life cycle is a complete mutual interrelated and interactional process,depends on strengthening one of the three evaluation stages merely is unscientific,and is impossible to gain the project object effectively.
This article regards the project evaluation as a whole, considers that R&D project evaluation involves the entire project life cycle and researchs the three stages evaluation of the entire R&D project: selection evaluation stage,process evaluation stage and performance evaluation stage(There is one point to explain that the performance evaluation in this paper means evaluating the completeness,the process and the effect of R&D project comparing with the goal beforehand after R&D activities,as well as providing advices for the future investment or decision-making), sets index system for various stages’s evaluation,compares the evaluation methods and then establishes simple evaluation model for each stage.And take this as the foundation, on the viewpoint of the stakeholders of each stage this article analyzes R&D project holisticall and systematically,screenes the influence factors, and establishment evaluation models. The whole evaluation of R&D project based on the life cycle is the integration and supplement to the former sole aspect or the sole stage evaluation.
本文将项目评估视为一个整体,考虑到一个具体的R&D项目评估涉及到整个项目生命周期,在对研发项目的特点和内容的研究基础上,结合前人对研发项目的研究,对研发项目生命周期三个阶段的评估——立项评估阶段、进展评估阶段和绩效评估阶段(这里要说明的一点是本文的绩效评估是在R&D活动完成后,对照预先设定的目标,对R&D活动的完成情况、实施过程、实施效果及影响所进行的评估,并为今后的投资或决策提供意见或建议)——进行了研究,对各阶段的评估影响因素进行分析,建立评估指标体系,对各阶段的评估方法进行比选,并建立了简单的评估模型。并以此为基础,分析三个阶段评估的相关性和一致性,将三个阶段联系起来,站在各阶段利益相关者的角度对研发项目进行整体的、系统的分析,筛选出项目评估的影响因素,并建立评估模型。基于生命周期对R&D项目进行整体评估(本文不区分评估和评价)是站在系统、动态的角度对R&D项目进行评估,它是对以往的单一方面或单一阶段的评估进行了综合及补充。
The R&D activity’s quality directly affects the society's science and technology development level, technical innovation ability, economical development and so on stamina.Therefore, R&D project evaluation reveals its prominent importance gradually.The R&D project evaluation theory, method and model research now is at an preliminary stage, but its importance is more and more obvious, the system viewpoint also appears its importance and necessity.Look through the actualities of R&D project evaluation,we can divide the whole evalution into three stages:ex ante evaluation,interim evaluation and ex post evaluation. The ex ante and ex post evaluation index is more explicit, improving the successful bidder rate of the project and the award achieving rate of the production(or the application rate of the production) is always the object of R&D managers,the benefit is evidently and the evaluation procedure is fixed.Interim evaluation is more flexible and complex,and the benefit is potential.So it seems that the evaluation actuality presents“heavy two,light among”,and people have never regard the entire evaluation from the life cycle viewpoint.R&D project’s life cycle is a complete mutual interrelated and interactional process,depends on strengthening one of the three evaluation stages merely is unscientific,and is impossible to gain the project object effectively.
This article regards the project evaluation as a whole, considers that R&D project evaluation involves the entire project life cycle and researchs the three stages evaluation of the entire R&D project: selection evaluation stage,process evaluation stage and performance evaluation stage(There is one point to explain that the performance evaluation in this paper means evaluating the completeness,the process and the effect of R&D project comparing with the goal beforehand after R&D activities,as well as providing advices for the future investment or decision-making), sets index system for various stages’s evaluation,compares the evaluation methods and then establishes simple evaluation model for each stage.And take this as the foundation, on the viewpoint of the stakeholders of each stage this article analyzes R&D project holisticall and systematically,screenes the influence factors, and establishment evaluation models. The whole evaluation of R&D project based on the life cycle is the integration and supplement to the former sole aspect or the sole stage evaluation.
引文
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[8] 中国科学技术促进发展研究中心国家科技计划评估组.八五国家科技攻关计划评估报告(一)[R],1995
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[10] Bjorn M Werner,William E Souder.Measuring R&D performance—State of the art[J].Research Technology Management,1997,(2):34～42
[11] 杨列勋.R&D 评估实践研究[J].研究与发展管理,2001,(13):18～23
[12] Schainblatt Alfred H . How companies measure the productivity of engineers and scientists[J].Research Management,1982,(3):10～18
[13] 刘景江,郑刚,许庆瑞.国外 R&D 项目测度与评价研究综述[J].科研管理,2001,(6):9～14
[14] K.L.Poh,B.W.Ang,F.Bai.A comparative analysis of R&D project evaluation methods[J].R&D Management ,2001,(1):63～75
[15] 王贵军,曾德明.基于层次分析法的 R&D 项目评估方法的比较研究[J].财经理论与实践,2002,(119):99～104
[16] 项建国,黄荣兵,杨缦琳.R&D 项目选择模型和中止模型的比较[J].科研管理,1999,(2):99～103
[17] 郑德渊,伍青生,李湛.企业 R&D 项目的实物期权评价方法[J].研究与发展管理,2000,(4):27～30
[18] 赵艳丽,顾基发.东西方评价方法论对比研究[J].管理科学学报,2000,(3):87～93
[19] Yael Ilan.Evaluation of innovative projects-an integrative approach [J].IEEE Transaction on Engineering Management,1989, (1):51～54
[20] Ringuest Jeffrey L.,Samuel B.Graves.The linear multi-objective R&D project selection problem[J].IEEE Transaction on Engineering Management,1989,(1):54～57
[21] 许庆瑞,赵建.科研项目评价的专家系统[J].科研管理,1991,(4):23～29
[22] 席酉民,杨列勋.R&D 项目评估整体模型研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2002(10):105～112
[23] 官建成,屈交胜,靳平安.R&D 预研项目的中止决策研究[J].中外科技政策与管理,1995(10):33～36
[24] 董景荣.R&D 项目中止决策的小波网络模式识别[J].预测, 2001,(1):35～39
[25] 官建成,刘权.R&D 项目中止决策的系统进展[J].中国学术期刊文摘,2000,(1):124～125.
[26] 屈交胜,官建成.R&D 项目中止决策的 Fuzzy 动态综合评判[J].科研管理,1996,(9):36～42
[27] Baston.Characteristics of R&D management which influence information needs[J].IEEE Transaction on Engineering Management,1987,(3):78～83
[28] Foster RN,Linden LH ,Whiteley RL,Kantrow Ant.Improving the return on R&D—Ⅱ[J].Research Technology Management,1985,(3):13～22
[29] 徐笑君,许庆瑞,陈劲.企业 R&D 绩效测量研究[J].科研管理,1998,(4):37～40
[30] Mark G.Brown,Raynold A.Avension.Measuring R&D Productivity[J].Research Technology Management,1998,(6):30～35
[31] Kerssers — Van Drongelen&Cook. Design principles for the developing of measurement systems for research and development processes[J]. R&D Managemnet,1997, (4):345～357
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