人水和谐博弈理论及应用研究
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摘要
人水关系问题是目前水资源相关研究中的一个热点问题,也是人类社会发展过程中亟待解决的一个难点问题,由此引发了人水和谐问题的研究和讨论,而人水和谐量化研究更是其重中之重。目前已有的研究成果主要是制定了人水和谐的量化指标体系,进行了人水和谐度评价。然而,当前人水和谐量化研究中仍有很多问题尚未解决,最根本的是对人水作用的本质认识不足。
本文在对前人研究成果进行学习、总结、分析的基础上,结合现有的人水和谐量化理论和博弈论研究方法,从分析人水作用的本质特征入手进行研究,主要研究内容有以下几个方面：
(1)构建了人水和谐博弈理论体系框架,主要包括概念、模型、应用三大部分内容。概念部分主要阐述了人水和谐博弈理论研究中的人水系统、人水和谐、人水博弈等基本概念及其内涵；模型部分主要介绍了在人水和谐博弈理论中量化研究所用到的博弈辨识、博弈评估、博弈管理三大模型；应用部分简要介绍了人水和谐博弈理论的应用领域。
(2)针对人水和谐博弈理论中的三个模型,分别介绍了模型的构建原因、构建原理、构建方法等内容,利用这些模型较系统分析和解决人水关系研究中的相关问题,实现人水和谐。通过这三个模型的构建,深化了人水和谐量化理论。
(3)以郑州市为研究区,采用三个主要模型进行了博弈辨识、博弈评估和博弈管理的实例研究。经过研究可以发现,当前郑州市整体人水和谐度水平和人水博弈均衡度水平较低,水资源开发利用中的人文系统和水系统间的矛盾比较突出。而随着人类对人水关系的再认识,对水资源合理开发利用、保护意识的不断加强,在规划水平年,通过引入大量外调水源和节水等措施,可以有效缓解郑州市人水关系,人水博弈均衡度和人水和谐度都能够达到较高水平。
(4)针对人水和谐博弈理论研究中的三个主要模型,开发了具有推广意义的管理系统软件,能够较高效率地实现对人水系统的管理。
The human-water relationship is a hot issue in the research of water resources, and it's also a difficult problem in the development of human society. Therefore, the research and discuss of human-water harmony expands, and the focus is the quality research of human-water harmony. Up till now, the index system of human-water harmony degree (HWHD) has been made and put into use. However, there are still some problems unsolved in the quantifying method, the most primary one of which is the obscure understanding to the nature of human-water interaction.
On the basis of learning, conclusion and analysis of the previous research achievements, and combining with the current quantitative theory of human-water harmony and game theory, the nature of human-water interaction has been discussed in this paper. The main researches are as follows:
(1) The Game Theoretical system of Human-Water Harmony has been established, mainly consisting of the concepts, models and applications. The first part mainly interprets the concepts and their connotation in this theory, such as the human-water system, human-water harmony and human-water game. The second part mainly introduces the three quantitative models applied in the theory, comprising the game-identification model, game-evaluation model and game-management model. The third part of the theory briefly presents its application fields.
(2) As to the three models in the game theory of human-water harmony, the paper respectively introduces the reason for the building of the model and its principles, methods and so on. Based on these models, some problems can be solved effectively in the research of human-water system and the target of human-water harmony can be realized. Moreover, these will deepen the study of quantitative theory of human-water harmony.
(3) Taking Zhengzhou City as the study area, the three models, i.e., the game-identification model, the game-evaluation model, and the game-management model, are applied in the research. By analyzing the results, we can find that the human-water harmony degree and equilibrium degree for human-water game of Zhengzhou City are currently lower on the whole, and the conflict between the human system and water system in the exploitation and utilization of water resources is obvious. In the future, with people's reconsideration of the human-water relationship, their awareness of rational utilization of the water resources and their stronger sense of environmental protection, by taking some measures, such as importing large amounts of water resources and executing water saving technique, the human-water relationship in Zhengzhou City will be improved and the human-water harmony degree and equilibrium degree for human-water game will be higher.
(4) Based on the three models in the theory, a universal managemental software is developed, which can manage the human-water system efficiently.
本文在对前人研究成果进行学习、总结、分析的基础上,结合现有的人水和谐量化理论和博弈论研究方法,从分析人水作用的本质特征入手进行研究,主要研究内容有以下几个方面：
(1)构建了人水和谐博弈理论体系框架,主要包括概念、模型、应用三大部分内容。概念部分主要阐述了人水和谐博弈理论研究中的人水系统、人水和谐、人水博弈等基本概念及其内涵；模型部分主要介绍了在人水和谐博弈理论中量化研究所用到的博弈辨识、博弈评估、博弈管理三大模型；应用部分简要介绍了人水和谐博弈理论的应用领域。
(2)针对人水和谐博弈理论中的三个模型,分别介绍了模型的构建原因、构建原理、构建方法等内容,利用这些模型较系统分析和解决人水关系研究中的相关问题,实现人水和谐。通过这三个模型的构建,深化了人水和谐量化理论。
(3)以郑州市为研究区,采用三个主要模型进行了博弈辨识、博弈评估和博弈管理的实例研究。经过研究可以发现,当前郑州市整体人水和谐度水平和人水博弈均衡度水平较低,水资源开发利用中的人文系统和水系统间的矛盾比较突出。而随着人类对人水关系的再认识,对水资源合理开发利用、保护意识的不断加强,在规划水平年,通过引入大量外调水源和节水等措施,可以有效缓解郑州市人水关系,人水博弈均衡度和人水和谐度都能够达到较高水平。
(4)针对人水和谐博弈理论研究中的三个主要模型,开发了具有推广意义的管理系统软件,能够较高效率地实现对人水系统的管理。
The human-water relationship is a hot issue in the research of water resources, and it's also a difficult problem in the development of human society. Therefore, the research and discuss of human-water harmony expands, and the focus is the quality research of human-water harmony. Up till now, the index system of human-water harmony degree (HWHD) has been made and put into use. However, there are still some problems unsolved in the quantifying method, the most primary one of which is the obscure understanding to the nature of human-water interaction.
On the basis of learning, conclusion and analysis of the previous research achievements, and combining with the current quantitative theory of human-water harmony and game theory, the nature of human-water interaction has been discussed in this paper. The main researches are as follows:
(1) The Game Theoretical system of Human-Water Harmony has been established, mainly consisting of the concepts, models and applications. The first part mainly interprets the concepts and their connotation in this theory, such as the human-water system, human-water harmony and human-water game. The second part mainly introduces the three quantitative models applied in the theory, comprising the game-identification model, game-evaluation model and game-management model. The third part of the theory briefly presents its application fields.
(2) As to the three models in the game theory of human-water harmony, the paper respectively introduces the reason for the building of the model and its principles, methods and so on. Based on these models, some problems can be solved effectively in the research of human-water system and the target of human-water harmony can be realized. Moreover, these will deepen the study of quantitative theory of human-water harmony.
(3) Taking Zhengzhou City as the study area, the three models, i.e., the game-identification model, the game-evaluation model, and the game-management model, are applied in the research. By analyzing the results, we can find that the human-water harmony degree and equilibrium degree for human-water game of Zhengzhou City are currently lower on the whole, and the conflict between the human system and water system in the exploitation and utilization of water resources is obvious. In the future, with people's reconsideration of the human-water relationship, their awareness of rational utilization of the water resources and their stronger sense of environmental protection, by taking some measures, such as importing large amounts of water resources and executing water saving technique, the human-water relationship in Zhengzhou City will be improved and the human-water harmony degree and equilibrium degree for human-water game will be higher.
(4) Based on the three models in the theory, a universal managemental software is developed, which can manage the human-water system efficiently.
引文
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