我国水权转换模式及转换价值评估研究
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摘要
本文在综合利用水资源学、法学、经济学、数学、管理学、博弈论等理论的基础上,基于水权理论的分析和理解,借助对国外水权市场和水权转换的分析,研究了我国水权转换模式和水权转换价值评估模型,从而有利地指导我国水权转换,促进我国水权交易市场的形成。
本文首先借鉴西方国家成熟水市场的经验,基于中国的国情,研究和探讨适合中国水市场的运作模式、框架结构,并给出了我国水市场的短期规划模式和长期规划模式,并设计了水权期货交易的组成和交易模式,并多个角度对我国实施水权转换的可行性和必要性进行了分析。其次,在整体分析水权转换所带来的正外部性和负外部性后,从水资源、工业、农业、生态和经济五个系统方面建立了水权转换外部效应的整体分析模型和五个子模型分析模型,具体分析水权转换与工业、农业、水资源及经济之间的联动关系及各系统内参数之间的相互关联关系,并对水权转换的外部效应结合实例进行了水权转换外部效应分析。第三,在结合资产评估、土地评估、矿业权评估的思想和原理的基础上,建立了水权价值评估的成本法、市场法和收益法模型,并对转换模型中的参数进行了探讨。最后以黄河水权转换为例从水权分配,节水、需水,到水权转换、转换定价、转换水量和补偿费用等进行了实证计算。第四,在分析水权转换市场上博弈要素的基础上,从博弈的角度对我国水权转换定价进行了分析,分别建立了初级水权分配的博弈模型和正式水权交易市场的博弈定价模型。第五,基于水市场的可持续发展角度,围绕我国水市场的研究,从制度、管理、立法等方面全面探讨了完善我国水权转换的策略,进一步促进了我国水市场的完善。
On the basis of analysis and comprehend of water right theory, by using the theories synthetically, such as law theory, economics theory, game theory, mathematics, managing method etc., water right conversion mode and water right conversion value evaluation model were analyzed with the analysis of abroad water right conversion mode and water right markets. It will guide our country the water right converts, promote the formation of the water right trades market in our country.Firstly, this text draw lessons from the mature market of water in west country, according to Chinese state of the nation, researched the mode, frame construction which were fit for the Chinese market of water, gave a short- term and long- term programming mode, designed the water right futures trade of constitute with trade the mode, and analysed the possibility and necessity from several angles .Secondly, after wholly analyzed the positive exterior and negative exterior that water right bring when converting, established water right conversion exterior effect of the whole analysis model and five statures model analysis model from the resources of water, industry, agriculture, ecosystem with economy five systems, analyzed combinable relation and parameter inside each systems mutually connection relating in a specific way between water right conversion and industry, agriculture, the resources of water and economy ,and analysed water right conversion exterior effect combining the solid cases. Thirdly, on the base of the thought and the foundation of the principle property evaluation, land evaluation, mineral industry power valuation, established the the models of the cost method, market method and income method about that water right value evaluation , and converted the parameter in the model proceeded the study, then took yellow river water right convert as an example from the water right assign, stanza water, need the water, to the water right convert, convert the list price and convert the water measures with compensate expenses etc, proceeded the substantial evidence the calculation. Forthly, on the foundation of analyzing the game elements in water right conversion market, converted the list price of our country water right from the angle of the game analysis, established the entry- level water right and the formal water right respectively. Finally according to the market of water must keep up with the developping , inquiried into the strategy of the water right conversion completely perfect our country, from the system, management, lawmaking etc, moreover promoted our country water market of perfect furtherly.
本文首先借鉴西方国家成熟水市场的经验,基于中国的国情,研究和探讨适合中国水市场的运作模式、框架结构,并给出了我国水市场的短期规划模式和长期规划模式,并设计了水权期货交易的组成和交易模式,并多个角度对我国实施水权转换的可行性和必要性进行了分析。其次,在整体分析水权转换所带来的正外部性和负外部性后,从水资源、工业、农业、生态和经济五个系统方面建立了水权转换外部效应的整体分析模型和五个子模型分析模型,具体分析水权转换与工业、农业、水资源及经济之间的联动关系及各系统内参数之间的相互关联关系,并对水权转换的外部效应结合实例进行了水权转换外部效应分析。第三,在结合资产评估、土地评估、矿业权评估的思想和原理的基础上,建立了水权价值评估的成本法、市场法和收益法模型,并对转换模型中的参数进行了探讨。最后以黄河水权转换为例从水权分配,节水、需水,到水权转换、转换定价、转换水量和补偿费用等进行了实证计算。第四,在分析水权转换市场上博弈要素的基础上,从博弈的角度对我国水权转换定价进行了分析,分别建立了初级水权分配的博弈模型和正式水权交易市场的博弈定价模型。第五,基于水市场的可持续发展角度,围绕我国水市场的研究,从制度、管理、立法等方面全面探讨了完善我国水权转换的策略,进一步促进了我国水市场的完善。
On the basis of analysis and comprehend of water right theory, by using the theories synthetically, such as law theory, economics theory, game theory, mathematics, managing method etc., water right conversion mode and water right conversion value evaluation model were analyzed with the analysis of abroad water right conversion mode and water right markets. It will guide our country the water right converts, promote the formation of the water right trades market in our country.Firstly, this text draw lessons from the mature market of water in west country, according to Chinese state of the nation, researched the mode, frame construction which were fit for the Chinese market of water, gave a short- term and long- term programming mode, designed the water right futures trade of constitute with trade the mode, and analysed the possibility and necessity from several angles .Secondly, after wholly analyzed the positive exterior and negative exterior that water right bring when converting, established water right conversion exterior effect of the whole analysis model and five statures model analysis model from the resources of water, industry, agriculture, ecosystem with economy five systems, analyzed combinable relation and parameter inside each systems mutually connection relating in a specific way between water right conversion and industry, agriculture, the resources of water and economy ,and analysed water right conversion exterior effect combining the solid cases. Thirdly, on the base of the thought and the foundation of the principle property evaluation, land evaluation, mineral industry power valuation, established the the models of the cost method, market method and income method about that water right value evaluation , and converted the parameter in the model proceeded the study, then took yellow river water right convert as an example from the water right assign, stanza water, need the water, to the water right convert, convert the list price and convert the water measures with compensate expenses etc, proceeded the substantial evidence the calculation. Forthly, on the foundation of analyzing the game elements in water right conversion market, converted the list price of our country water right from the angle of the game analysis, established the entry- level water right and the formal water right respectively. Finally according to the market of water must keep up with the developping , inquiried into the strategy of the water right conversion completely perfect our country, from the system, management, lawmaking etc, moreover promoted our country water market of perfect furtherly.
引文
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