煤炭城市可持续发展的复杂系统评价与调控研究
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摘要
我国的煤炭资源占一次能源的90%以上,实际消耗占一次能源的70%以上,客观条件决定了煤炭工业在国民经济中的重要地位,以及今后几十年内,以煤炭资源为主的一次能源结构不会改变。随着煤炭的勘探和开采,我国兴起了一批煤炭城市,这些煤炭城市不论是其定位条件、成长机制,还是城市的产业结构、地域结构、人口结构、环境结构等,都具有独特的特点和发展规律。煤炭城市是受计划经济影响最深的城市类型之一,在计划经济向市场经济转轨的过程中,这些煤炭城市所面临问题比较突出,已引起了社会各界广泛关注。
本文以我国煤炭城市为研究对象,从分析煤炭城市发展的现状入手,以系统科学为指针,运用系统科学方法论,定性与定量分析相结合,对煤炭城市可持续发展复杂系统的结构、特征、目标和演化过程等问题进行了全面的讨论,在对煤炭城市可持续发展复杂系统全面分析基础上,设计出一套符合我国煤炭城市可持续发展的指标体系、评价模型体系和系统动力学模拟与调控模型。
指标体系从煤炭城市可持续发展的内涵出发,设计了人口全面发展；资源合理利用；经济持续增长与环境质量优化的四个准则层,这四个准则层包含33个指标。在评价指标的基础上,分别从以下三个角度建立了煤炭城市可持续发展综合评价模型,包括：(1)基于投影寻踪的煤炭城市可持续发展水平评价模型；(2)基于复合DEA的煤炭城市可持续发展能力评价模型；(3)基于协调函数的煤炭城市发展协调度评价模型。
以系统综合评价为基础,应用系统动力学方法,建立了煤炭城市可持续发展的系统动力学模型,通过系统动力学模拟和调控,探求煤炭城市在不同发展模型下的系统演化基本过程,为寻找煤炭城市的有效调控机制提供了科学依据。论文在理论研究之后,都以典型煤炭城市鸡西为例,进行了实证研究。论文最后提出了基于技术创新视角的煤炭城市可持续发展路径。定量模型部分提出了面板数据支撑下的煤炭城市技术创新综合水平评价模型,定性模型部分提出了基于点—线—面—场的煤炭城市可持续发展技术创新路径。
Coal resource accounts up 90% of Chinese primary energy, and its real consumption accounts up to over 70%. The objective conditions entitle coal the important position in Chinese national economy, and make certain the primary energy structure unchanged which is dominated by coal resource. With the coal prospecting and exploration, a lot of coal cities were established, which take important positions in Chinese city system with particular characteristics and development rules, whether in the aspects of positioning conditions, growing mechanism, or in the industrial structure, regional structure, population structure, and environmental structure, etc. Coal cities are the type of cities most influenced by the plan economy, which encounter serious problems with wide public concern in the transition process from plan economy to market economy.
This paper pays Chinese coal cities as research target, analyzes the present situation of coal city development, takes system science as oriented, employs system science methodology to make comprehensive discussion on the issues of structure, characteristics, objectives, and evolvement process of coal city sustainable development complex system, and designs a set of indicator system, evaluation model system, and systematic dynamics simulation and control model system suitable to Chinese coal city sustainable development.
The indicator system starts from the denomination of coal city sustainable system, and designs four rule levels of population, resource, economy and environment, including 33 indictors. The model system includes:(1) Projection pursuit-based coal city sustainable development level evaluation model; (2) Composite DEA-based coal city sustainable development capability evaluation model; (3) Coordinate function-based coal city development coordination evaluation model. On the basis of systematic synthetic evaluation, the paper employs system dynamics method to establish the systematic dynamics model of coal city sustainable development, and through systematic dynamics simulation and control, explores the fundamental systematic evolvement process of coal cities in different phases, and provides scientific evidence for the research of effective coal city control mechanism. After the theoretic research, the paper takes Jixi, a typical coal city, as example, to make an empirical research. The results of the empirical research show that the synthetic evaluation indicator system, model system, and dynamics simulation and control system of coal city sustainable development are scientific, objective, and feasible.
本文以我国煤炭城市为研究对象,从分析煤炭城市发展的现状入手,以系统科学为指针,运用系统科学方法论,定性与定量分析相结合,对煤炭城市可持续发展复杂系统的结构、特征、目标和演化过程等问题进行了全面的讨论,在对煤炭城市可持续发展复杂系统全面分析基础上,设计出一套符合我国煤炭城市可持续发展的指标体系、评价模型体系和系统动力学模拟与调控模型。
指标体系从煤炭城市可持续发展的内涵出发,设计了人口全面发展；资源合理利用；经济持续增长与环境质量优化的四个准则层,这四个准则层包含33个指标。在评价指标的基础上,分别从以下三个角度建立了煤炭城市可持续发展综合评价模型,包括：(1)基于投影寻踪的煤炭城市可持续发展水平评价模型；(2)基于复合DEA的煤炭城市可持续发展能力评价模型；(3)基于协调函数的煤炭城市发展协调度评价模型。
以系统综合评价为基础,应用系统动力学方法,建立了煤炭城市可持续发展的系统动力学模型,通过系统动力学模拟和调控,探求煤炭城市在不同发展模型下的系统演化基本过程,为寻找煤炭城市的有效调控机制提供了科学依据。论文在理论研究之后,都以典型煤炭城市鸡西为例,进行了实证研究。论文最后提出了基于技术创新视角的煤炭城市可持续发展路径。定量模型部分提出了面板数据支撑下的煤炭城市技术创新综合水平评价模型,定性模型部分提出了基于点—线—面—场的煤炭城市可持续发展技术创新路径。
Coal resource accounts up 90% of Chinese primary energy, and its real consumption accounts up to over 70%. The objective conditions entitle coal the important position in Chinese national economy, and make certain the primary energy structure unchanged which is dominated by coal resource. With the coal prospecting and exploration, a lot of coal cities were established, which take important positions in Chinese city system with particular characteristics and development rules, whether in the aspects of positioning conditions, growing mechanism, or in the industrial structure, regional structure, population structure, and environmental structure, etc. Coal cities are the type of cities most influenced by the plan economy, which encounter serious problems with wide public concern in the transition process from plan economy to market economy.
This paper pays Chinese coal cities as research target, analyzes the present situation of coal city development, takes system science as oriented, employs system science methodology to make comprehensive discussion on the issues of structure, characteristics, objectives, and evolvement process of coal city sustainable development complex system, and designs a set of indicator system, evaluation model system, and systematic dynamics simulation and control model system suitable to Chinese coal city sustainable development.
The indicator system starts from the denomination of coal city sustainable system, and designs four rule levels of population, resource, economy and environment, including 33 indictors. The model system includes:(1) Projection pursuit-based coal city sustainable development level evaluation model; (2) Composite DEA-based coal city sustainable development capability evaluation model; (3) Coordinate function-based coal city development coordination evaluation model. On the basis of systematic synthetic evaluation, the paper employs system dynamics method to establish the systematic dynamics model of coal city sustainable development, and through systematic dynamics simulation and control, explores the fundamental systematic evolvement process of coal cities in different phases, and provides scientific evidence for the research of effective coal city control mechanism. After the theoretic research, the paper takes Jixi, a typical coal city, as example, to make an empirical research. The results of the empirical research show that the synthetic evaluation indicator system, model system, and dynamics simulation and control system of coal city sustainable development are scientific, objective, and feasible.
引文
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