房地产开发投资对GDP的贡献度研究
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摘要
房地产开发投资通过投资和消费两环节拉动GDP增长,同时,在这两环节中,房地产开发投资通过前向、后向、环向带动作用及投资本身的直接作用促进GDP增长,充分发挥投资乘数效应。
除具有经济效益外,房地产开发投资还具有巨大的社会效益,比如:提升城市形象;为人们生产生活提供场所等。鉴于房地产业巨大的双重效益,其发展已经得到了各级政府和社会各界的关注。保持房地产业与国民经济的协调发展,已经成为政府社会管理和经济管理职能的核心任务之一。
因此,研究房地产开发投资对GDP的关系问题具有重大意义。准确把握房地产开发投资与GDP是否具有因果关系、房地产开发投资对GDP的贡献及贡献度等问题有利于准确及时调控房地产市场,以保证房地产开发投资与GDP均保持健康发展。
房地产开发投资作为房地产业发展的基础和关键环节,在房地产发展中是最为关键的因素。本文首先用定性分析的方法,分析了房地产开发投资的主要影响因素,从宏观因素、区域因素两个大的方面着手,然后再细分,全面、深入的阐述了这些因素是如何影响房地产开发投资的。其次分析了房地产开发投资对GDP的影响,分别从促进作用和阻碍作用两方面阐述了房地产开发投资对GDP的影响。无论是促进作用还是阻碍作用,都有通过对相关产业的影响来实现,因此,还单独阐述了房地产开发投资对相关产业的影响。再次用实证分析的方法揭示房地产开发投资与GDP增长的因果关系、房地产开发投资对GDP的贡献及贡献度。最后,针对本文的研究内容,给出了研究结论、相关的政策建议,以便政府对房地产业的发展予以指导,保持房地产业和国民经济的协调发展。
Investment in real estate development through investment and consumption aspects of driving GDP growth, at the same time, in these two segments, the investment in real estate development prior to the adoption, to the ring to the leading role and investment in itself a direct role in the promotion of GDP growth, investment and give full play to multiplier effect.
In addition to economic benefits, investment in real estate development also has enormous social benefits, such as: to enhance the city image; for people to provide a forum such as the production and living. Given the huge double-effectiveness of the real estate industry, its development has been at all levels of government and the community's concern. To maintain the real estate industry and the coordinated development of the national economy has become the government's social management and economic management functions of the core tasks.
Thus, investment in real estate development on the relationship between GDP of great significance. Accurately grasp the real estate development, investment and whether a causal relationship between GDP, investment in real estate development and contribution to the GDP contribution of the issues is conducive to accurate and timely real estate market regulation to ensure that investment in real estate development and maintains the healthy development of GDP.
Investment in real estate development real estate development as the basis and key link in the real estate development is the most crucial factor. In this paper, using qualitative analysis methods, analysis of investment in real estate development in Xi'an of the main factors, from macroeconomic factors, regional factors of the two major aspects, and then broken down, comprehensive, in-depth exposition of how these factors impact on the Housing investment in real estate development. Second, investment in real estate development analysis of the impact on GDP, respectively, from the promotion of the role and hinder the role of both the investment in real estate development on the impact on GDP. Whether the role is to promote or hinder the role, both through the impact on related industries to achieve, therefore, also described a separate investment in real estate development impact on related industries. Again using the method of empirical analysis reveals the real estate development investment and the causal relationship between GDP growth, investment in real estate development and contribution to the GDP contribution. Finally, the research for this article, given the conclusion of the study, the relevant policy recommendations for the Government to guide the development of the real estate industry, and maintain real estate and the coordinated development of national economy.
除具有经济效益外,房地产开发投资还具有巨大的社会效益,比如:提升城市形象;为人们生产生活提供场所等。鉴于房地产业巨大的双重效益,其发展已经得到了各级政府和社会各界的关注。保持房地产业与国民经济的协调发展,已经成为政府社会管理和经济管理职能的核心任务之一。
因此,研究房地产开发投资对GDP的关系问题具有重大意义。准确把握房地产开发投资与GDP是否具有因果关系、房地产开发投资对GDP的贡献及贡献度等问题有利于准确及时调控房地产市场,以保证房地产开发投资与GDP均保持健康发展。
房地产开发投资作为房地产业发展的基础和关键环节,在房地产发展中是最为关键的因素。本文首先用定性分析的方法,分析了房地产开发投资的主要影响因素,从宏观因素、区域因素两个大的方面着手,然后再细分,全面、深入的阐述了这些因素是如何影响房地产开发投资的。其次分析了房地产开发投资对GDP的影响,分别从促进作用和阻碍作用两方面阐述了房地产开发投资对GDP的影响。无论是促进作用还是阻碍作用,都有通过对相关产业的影响来实现,因此,还单独阐述了房地产开发投资对相关产业的影响。再次用实证分析的方法揭示房地产开发投资与GDP增长的因果关系、房地产开发投资对GDP的贡献及贡献度。最后,针对本文的研究内容,给出了研究结论、相关的政策建议,以便政府对房地产业的发展予以指导,保持房地产业和国民经济的协调发展。
Investment in real estate development through investment and consumption aspects of driving GDP growth, at the same time, in these two segments, the investment in real estate development prior to the adoption, to the ring to the leading role and investment in itself a direct role in the promotion of GDP growth, investment and give full play to multiplier effect.
In addition to economic benefits, investment in real estate development also has enormous social benefits, such as: to enhance the city image; for people to provide a forum such as the production and living. Given the huge double-effectiveness of the real estate industry, its development has been at all levels of government and the community's concern. To maintain the real estate industry and the coordinated development of the national economy has become the government's social management and economic management functions of the core tasks.
Thus, investment in real estate development on the relationship between GDP of great significance. Accurately grasp the real estate development, investment and whether a causal relationship between GDP, investment in real estate development and contribution to the GDP contribution of the issues is conducive to accurate and timely real estate market regulation to ensure that investment in real estate development and maintains the healthy development of GDP.
Investment in real estate development real estate development as the basis and key link in the real estate development is the most crucial factor. In this paper, using qualitative analysis methods, analysis of investment in real estate development in Xi'an of the main factors, from macroeconomic factors, regional factors of the two major aspects, and then broken down, comprehensive, in-depth exposition of how these factors impact on the Housing investment in real estate development. Second, investment in real estate development analysis of the impact on GDP, respectively, from the promotion of the role and hinder the role of both the investment in real estate development on the impact on GDP. Whether the role is to promote or hinder the role, both through the impact on related industries to achieve, therefore, also described a separate investment in real estate development impact on related industries. Again using the method of empirical analysis reveals the real estate development investment and the causal relationship between GDP growth, investment in real estate development and contribution to the GDP contribution. Finally, the research for this article, given the conclusion of the study, the relevant policy recommendations for the Government to guide the development of the real estate industry, and maintain real estate and the coordinated development of national economy.
引文
[1]薛军,《日本房地产泡沫形成与破灭的原因及其对中国的启示》,《2006-2007年:世界经济形势分析与预测》,社会科学文献出版社,2007年1月
[2]http://www.chinavalue.net/Article/Archive/2007/1/20/54656.html
[3][英]亚当·斯密.国民财富的性质和原因的研究(节选本)[M].北京:商务印书馆出版,2002
[4][英]大卫·李嘉图.政治经济学及赋税原理[M].北京:华夏出版社,2005
[5]Jack C.Harris.Real estate cycles:Riding put the ups and downs,real estate issue,2000
[6][美]萨缪尔森,诺德豪斯.经济学(第十六版)[M].北京:华夏出版社,1999
[7][美]罗默.高级宏观经济学(第二版)[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2003
[8]Hopewell.B.Real Estate in Corporate Strategy.Long Range Planning,1998
[9]Bruce Harwood.Real Estate Principal.Reston Publishing CO.,1997
[10]Burns.The long Cycle of Housing Achitecture,Borderl and of Economic Knowledge.National Knowledge studies,1954
[11]Nelson,The use of professional design nations in the real estateindustry.Financial Services Review,1997
[12]Boone,Real estate promotion and the shopping of Los Angeles.Information Processing Letters,1998
[13]Stephen A.Pyhrr,James R.Cooper.Real Estate Investment.John Willey & Sons,Inc.,1982
[14]Green Richard K.Follow the Leader:How Changes in Residential and Non-Residential Investment predict in GDP.Real Estate Economics,1997
[15]Mycong-Soo Kim.A Comparative Study on Residential Investment and Nonresidential in GDP Fluctuation.清华大学房地产研究所AsRES会议第七届年会论文集,2002
[16]刘水杏.我国房地产业与国民经济其他产业的关联度分析,上海市经济管理干部学院学报,2003
[17]刘水杏.房地产业与相关产业关联度的国际比较,财贸研究,2004
[18]王国军、刘水杏.房地产业对相关产业的带动效应研究,经济研究,2004
[19]皮舜、武康平.房地产市场发展和经济增长间的因果关系--对我国的实证分析,管理评论,2004
[20]平新桥、陈敏彦.融资、地价与楼盘价格趋势,世界经济,2004
[21]李艳双.住宅市场发展的回顾与展望,2002年中国管理科学学术会议论文集
[22]梁云芳、高铁梅、贺书平.房地产市场与国民经济协调发展的实证分析,中国社会科学,2006
[23]杨朝军、廖士光、孙洁.房地产业与国民经济协调发展的国际经验及启示,统计研究,2006
[24]王先柱.VAR模型框架下房地产业与经济增长关系的实证检验,经济问题,2007
[25]闫永涛.房地产业对国民经济带动作用新解释--基于投入产出模型的分析,建筑经济,2007
[26]宋建忠.房地产市场投资与经济增长关系分析,理论研讨,2009
[27]刘婷婷.房地产投资对国民经济的影响,知识经济,2009
[28]孔行、黄玲、于渤.区域房地产业与区域经济发展的长期动态协调关系研究,中央财经大学学报,2009
[29]孙天娇.基于四象限模型的房地产业与国民经济发展研究,当代经济,2009
[30]郑思齐、刘红玉.住宅产业发展与国民经济增长,建筑经济,2002
[31]张晓晶、孙涛.中国房地产周期与金融稳定,经济研究,2006
[32]黄正军、赵冬.中国房地产投资周期波动实证分析及预测,重庆建筑大学学报,2006
[33]邱强、万海远.我国房地产业的周期运行特征,统计与决策,2007
[34]薛白、吴健鹏、袁科.基于Ⅰ-0模型的房地产业关联效应及波及效应研究--以广东省为例的实证分析,建筑经济,2007
[35]马万里.杭州房地产周期波动及与日本、香港的对比分析,经济社会体制比较,2007
[36]王光生.房地产业在西安经济发展中的地位及作用,光明日报,2002
[37]西安市统计年鉴,1998-2008
[38]西安市人大常委会.西安市土地储备条例,2003
[39]http://www.baidu.com/
[40]付晓东.中国城镇化与可持续发展,新华出版社,2005
[41]王嘉惠.谈人口因素对住宅房地产市场的影响,商场现代化,2007
[42]孙敬水.计量经济学,清华大学出版社,2004
[43]精讯数据(搜数网):精讯数据(搜数网):http://www.soshoo.com/.
[44]西安市统计年鉴,1998-2009
[2]http://www.chinavalue.net/Article/Archive/2007/1/20/54656.html
[3][英]亚当·斯密.国民财富的性质和原因的研究(节选本)[M].北京:商务印书馆出版,2002
[4][英]大卫·李嘉图.政治经济学及赋税原理[M].北京:华夏出版社,2005
[5]Jack C.Harris.Real estate cycles:Riding put the ups and downs,real estate issue,2000
[6][美]萨缪尔森,诺德豪斯.经济学(第十六版)[M].北京:华夏出版社,1999
[7][美]罗默.高级宏观经济学(第二版)[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2003
[8]Hopewell.B.Real Estate in Corporate Strategy.Long Range Planning,1998
[9]Bruce Harwood.Real Estate Principal.Reston Publishing CO.,1997
[10]Burns.The long Cycle of Housing Achitecture,Borderl and of Economic Knowledge.National Knowledge studies,1954
[11]Nelson,The use of professional design nations in the real estateindustry.Financial Services Review,1997
[12]Boone,Real estate promotion and the shopping of Los Angeles.Information Processing Letters,1998
[13]Stephen A.Pyhrr,James R.Cooper.Real Estate Investment.John Willey & Sons,Inc.,1982
[14]Green Richard K.Follow the Leader:How Changes in Residential and Non-Residential Investment predict in GDP.Real Estate Economics,1997
[15]Mycong-Soo Kim.A Comparative Study on Residential Investment and Nonresidential in GDP Fluctuation.清华大学房地产研究所AsRES会议第七届年会论文集,2002
[16]刘水杏.我国房地产业与国民经济其他产业的关联度分析,上海市经济管理干部学院学报,2003
[17]刘水杏.房地产业与相关产业关联度的国际比较,财贸研究,2004
[18]王国军、刘水杏.房地产业对相关产业的带动效应研究,经济研究,2004
[19]皮舜、武康平.房地产市场发展和经济增长间的因果关系--对我国的实证分析,管理评论,2004
[20]平新桥、陈敏彦.融资、地价与楼盘价格趋势,世界经济,2004
[21]李艳双.住宅市场发展的回顾与展望,2002年中国管理科学学术会议论文集
[22]梁云芳、高铁梅、贺书平.房地产市场与国民经济协调发展的实证分析,中国社会科学,2006
[23]杨朝军、廖士光、孙洁.房地产业与国民经济协调发展的国际经验及启示,统计研究,2006
[24]王先柱.VAR模型框架下房地产业与经济增长关系的实证检验,经济问题,2007
[25]闫永涛.房地产业对国民经济带动作用新解释--基于投入产出模型的分析,建筑经济,2007
[26]宋建忠.房地产市场投资与经济增长关系分析,理论研讨,2009
[27]刘婷婷.房地产投资对国民经济的影响,知识经济,2009
[28]孔行、黄玲、于渤.区域房地产业与区域经济发展的长期动态协调关系研究,中央财经大学学报,2009
[29]孙天娇.基于四象限模型的房地产业与国民经济发展研究,当代经济,2009
[30]郑思齐、刘红玉.住宅产业发展与国民经济增长,建筑经济,2002
[31]张晓晶、孙涛.中国房地产周期与金融稳定,经济研究,2006
[32]黄正军、赵冬.中国房地产投资周期波动实证分析及预测,重庆建筑大学学报,2006
[33]邱强、万海远.我国房地产业的周期运行特征,统计与决策,2007
[34]薛白、吴健鹏、袁科.基于Ⅰ-0模型的房地产业关联效应及波及效应研究--以广东省为例的实证分析,建筑经济,2007
[35]马万里.杭州房地产周期波动及与日本、香港的对比分析,经济社会体制比较,2007
[36]王光生.房地产业在西安经济发展中的地位及作用,光明日报,2002
[37]西安市统计年鉴,1998-2008
[38]西安市人大常委会.西安市土地储备条例,2003
[39]http://www.baidu.com/
[40]付晓东.中国城镇化与可持续发展,新华出版社,2005
[41]王嘉惠.谈人口因素对住宅房地产市场的影响,商场现代化,2007
[42]孙敬水.计量经济学,清华大学出版社,2004
[43]精讯数据(搜数网):精讯数据(搜数网):http://www.soshoo.com/.
[44]西安市统计年鉴,1998-2009