金融投资与大宗商业地产交易相关性研究
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摘要
本文通过参考相关房地产投资理论和统计方法,包括房地产投资四象限模型、REITS融资理论,定性得到金融投资价格变动会通过影响商业地产开发数量而影响后期的转手价格。论文通过对2010-2011年全国主要一线城市、二线城市等地金融投资机构对商业地产的大宗收购与转让交易案例的调查和香港世邦魏理仕CBRE每月公布的房地产并购报告,运用描述性统计分析、一元回归分析、含虚拟变量的回归模型、金融投资倾向的SWOT分析等,对金融机构特性、交易金额和商业地产特性进行相关性分析和研究,探索金融投资对大宗商业地产交易的资本偏好,得到我国商业地产投资额和项目规模之间存在着双向的线性相关性。投资资金的来源和项目建成后的使用类别虽然从一定程度上影响了金融投资额的决策,但是目前能够影响项目规模和金融投资额度大小的因素是该项目所处的地理环境。而不同的区域环境则会给商业地产的金融投资带来不同的机遇和挑战。文章希望以此为第三方(数据信息平台服务商与咨询解决方案的提供商)的商业地产新业务模式提供发展建议。
Reference to relevant theory and statistical methods of real estate investment, including four-quadrant model of real estate investment and REITS finance theory, this paper describes qualitatively that price change of financial investment will affect later resale price through affecting the quantity of commercial real estate. Based on the investigation of financial investment institutions of the nation's major and secondary cities to block trading cases of commercial property from 2010 to 2011, and Hong Kong CBRE's monthly real estate acquisition report, using descriptive statistical analysis, simple regression analysis, regression model with dummy variable and the SWOT analysis of financial investment propensity. This paper researches on the correlation of finance institutions character, transaction amount and commercial property character, and then explores the financial investment's capital preference to block trading cases of commercial real estate. It concludes that the two-way linear correlation exsits between our commercial real estate investment amount and project size. Although a certain extent, the source of investment funds and the use of categories after completion of the project will affect the decisions of financial investment amount, at present it is the geographical location of the project that can affect the project size and the financial investment amount. Different areas environment will bring out different opportunities and challenges to financial investment of commercial real estate. I hope this paper could provide some valuable suggestions and references to the market-oriented company, developing their new business model about commercial real estate for data information platform service providers and consulting solutions providers.
Reference to relevant theory and statistical methods of real estate investment, including four-quadrant model of real estate investment and REITS finance theory, this paper describes qualitatively that price change of financial investment will affect later resale price through affecting the quantity of commercial real estate. Based on the investigation of financial investment institutions of the nation's major and secondary cities to block trading cases of commercial property from 2010 to 2011, and Hong Kong CBRE's monthly real estate acquisition report, using descriptive statistical analysis, simple regression analysis, regression model with dummy variable and the SWOT analysis of financial investment propensity. This paper researches on the correlation of finance institutions character, transaction amount and commercial property character, and then explores the financial investment's capital preference to block trading cases of commercial real estate. It concludes that the two-way linear correlation exsits between our commercial real estate investment amount and project size. Although a certain extent, the source of investment funds and the use of categories after completion of the project will affect the decisions of financial investment amount, at present it is the geographical location of the project that can affect the project size and the financial investment amount. Different areas environment will bring out different opportunities and challenges to financial investment of commercial real estate. I hope this paper could provide some valuable suggestions and references to the market-oriented company, developing their new business model about commercial real estate for data information platform service providers and consulting solutions providers.
引文
[1]陈莹.中国商业地产的权益型REITs融资模式研究.华中师范大学硕士学文论文,2008：12-21.
[2]陈建明.商业地产投资.融资指南[M],2003,(7).
[3]曹振良,高晓慧等.中国房地产业发展与管理研究[M],2002：354-412.
[4]崔霁.长三角区域经济一体化下的商业地产.房地产开发,2008,(10)：33-35.
[5]丁元华.大型商业地产ABS项目融资模式研究.山东建筑大学硕士学位论文,2009：23-46.
[6]郭险峰.我国商业地产开发升温原因及特点解析.经济论坛,2005,(13)：251-257.
[7]何金卫,姜婉婧.我国房地产投资信托基金CREITs运作模式探讨.中国商界,2008,(11)：111-115.
[8]何宇明.CMBS:商业地产融资的创新方式.市场研究,2008,(7)：43-45.
[9]刘宁.房地产投资分析.大连理工大学出版社,2009：36-39.
[10]吕萍等.房地产开发与经营[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2002,(4)：256-280.
[11]陆伟刚.流动性过剩的诊断与从紧货币政策质疑.财经问题研究,2008,(10)：71-75.
[12]李亚洲.我国大宗交易法律制度的应然建构.南京航空航天大学学报(社会科学版),2010,(3)：49-53
[13]上海商业地产发展中存在的问题及开发的基本要素.http://www.Shanghail00.cn/view=4631,2009.
[14]孙天娇.基于四象限模型的房地产业与国民经济发展研究.当代经济,2009,(8).
[15]唐震.谈商业地产金融化.合作经济与科技,2005,(4)：32-33
[16]王东风.宽松货币政策、流动性过剩及影响：以美国为例.东北大学学报(社会科学版),2009,(2).
[17]王国银.房地产业融资问题研究.财会月刊(综合),2006,(6)：38-43.
[18]王蕾.商业房地产融资研究[D].武汉大学硕士学位论文,2005,(5)：33-45.
[19]王明国.资产证券化及其在房地产领域的应用研究[D].中国社会科学院研究生院博士学位论文,2006,(5)：23-27.
[20]王学东.商业房地产投融资与运营管理[M].北京：清华大学出版社.2004,(8)：321-324.
[21]中国人民银行武汉分行“流动性过剩问题”研究小组.“流动性过剩与货币政策”高层学术论坛综述.武汉金融,2007.
[22]项红.商业地产投资融资研究.华中科技大学硕士学位论文,2005,(10)：34-42
[23]薛岩.我国房地产证券化的特征及其作用.辽宁工学院学报,2003,5(3)：24-27.
[24]张友仁译.房地产经济学[M].[美]Dennis J. Mokenzie, Richard M. Betts. 北京:经济科学出版社,2003：351-468.
[25]周新标.商业地产的融资模式——经营性物业抵押贷款.建筑经济,2008,(12)：11-12.
[26]张洋.关于房地产融资模式的分析与研究[D].重庆大学硕士学位论文,2007,(4)：35-37.
[27]冀敏.美国商业地产REITs对我国REITs实现路径的启示.天津市财贸管理干部学院学报,2010,(4)：49-50.
[28]Andreas A. Jobst. Asset securitisation as a risk management and funding tool; What small firms need to know[J]. Managerial Finance,2006,32 (9):731-760.
[29]Baden-Ben (U.S.).3 Ways to Invest in the Real Estate Rally. News Digital Weekly,2010,2 (31):15.
[30]Bmeggeman,W. B.[美],Fisher. J. D.房地产融资与投资[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2003：58-79.
[31]David C. Ling & Gianluca Marcato & Pat McAllister. Dynamics of Asset Prices and Transaction Activity in Illiquid Markets:the Case of Private Commercial Real Estate. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,2009,39 (3):359-383.
[32]David C. Ling & Milena Petrova. Why Do REITs Go Private? Differences in Target Characteristics, Acquirer Motivations, and Wealth Effects in Public and Private Acquisitions. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,2011,43 (1-2): 99-129.
[33]Darren K. Hayunga-R. Kelley Pace. Spatial Statistics Applied to Commercial Real Estate. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,2010,41 (2):103-125.
[34]Jim Clayton & David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo. Commercial Real Estate Valuation: Fundamentals Versus Investor Sentiment. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,2009,38 (1):5-37.
[35]Jeungbo Shim. Mergers & Acquisitions, Diversification and Performance in the U.S. Property-Liability Insurance Industry. Journal of Financial Services Research,2011,39 (3):119-144.
[36]Peter J. Brady & Michael E. Conlin. The Performance of REIT-owned Properties and the Impact of REIT Market Power. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,2004.38 (1):81-95.
[37]Slatin. Peter. Fortune Favors The Bold in REITs. Forbes,2010,186 (8):42.
[2]陈建明.商业地产投资.融资指南[M],2003,(7).
[3]曹振良,高晓慧等.中国房地产业发展与管理研究[M],2002：354-412.
[4]崔霁.长三角区域经济一体化下的商业地产.房地产开发,2008,(10)：33-35.
[5]丁元华.大型商业地产ABS项目融资模式研究.山东建筑大学硕士学位论文,2009：23-46.
[6]郭险峰.我国商业地产开发升温原因及特点解析.经济论坛,2005,(13)：251-257.
[7]何金卫,姜婉婧.我国房地产投资信托基金CREITs运作模式探讨.中国商界,2008,(11)：111-115.
[8]何宇明.CMBS:商业地产融资的创新方式.市场研究,2008,(7)：43-45.
[9]刘宁.房地产投资分析.大连理工大学出版社,2009：36-39.
[10]吕萍等.房地产开发与经营[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2002,(4)：256-280.
[11]陆伟刚.流动性过剩的诊断与从紧货币政策质疑.财经问题研究,2008,(10)：71-75.
[12]李亚洲.我国大宗交易法律制度的应然建构.南京航空航天大学学报(社会科学版),2010,(3)：49-53
[13]上海商业地产发展中存在的问题及开发的基本要素.http://www.Shanghail00.cn/view=4631,2009.
[14]孙天娇.基于四象限模型的房地产业与国民经济发展研究.当代经济,2009,(8).
[15]唐震.谈商业地产金融化.合作经济与科技,2005,(4)：32-33
[16]王东风.宽松货币政策、流动性过剩及影响：以美国为例.东北大学学报(社会科学版),2009,(2).
[17]王国银.房地产业融资问题研究.财会月刊(综合),2006,(6)：38-43.
[18]王蕾.商业房地产融资研究[D].武汉大学硕士学位论文,2005,(5)：33-45.
[19]王明国.资产证券化及其在房地产领域的应用研究[D].中国社会科学院研究生院博士学位论文,2006,(5)：23-27.
[20]王学东.商业房地产投融资与运营管理[M].北京：清华大学出版社.2004,(8)：321-324.
[21]中国人民银行武汉分行“流动性过剩问题”研究小组.“流动性过剩与货币政策”高层学术论坛综述.武汉金融,2007.
[22]项红.商业地产投资融资研究.华中科技大学硕士学位论文,2005,(10)：34-42
[23]薛岩.我国房地产证券化的特征及其作用.辽宁工学院学报,2003,5(3)：24-27.
[24]张友仁译.房地产经济学[M].[美]Dennis J. Mokenzie, Richard M. Betts. 北京:经济科学出版社,2003：351-468.
[25]周新标.商业地产的融资模式——经营性物业抵押贷款.建筑经济,2008,(12)：11-12.
[26]张洋.关于房地产融资模式的分析与研究[D].重庆大学硕士学位论文,2007,(4)：35-37.
[27]冀敏.美国商业地产REITs对我国REITs实现路径的启示.天津市财贸管理干部学院学报,2010,(4)：49-50.
[28]Andreas A. Jobst. Asset securitisation as a risk management and funding tool; What small firms need to know[J]. Managerial Finance,2006,32 (9):731-760.
[29]Baden-Ben (U.S.).3 Ways to Invest in the Real Estate Rally. News Digital Weekly,2010,2 (31):15.
[30]Bmeggeman,W. B.[美],Fisher. J. D.房地产融资与投资[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2003：58-79.
[31]David C. Ling & Gianluca Marcato & Pat McAllister. Dynamics of Asset Prices and Transaction Activity in Illiquid Markets:the Case of Private Commercial Real Estate. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,2009,39 (3):359-383.
[32]David C. Ling & Milena Petrova. Why Do REITs Go Private? Differences in Target Characteristics, Acquirer Motivations, and Wealth Effects in Public and Private Acquisitions. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,2011,43 (1-2): 99-129.
[33]Darren K. Hayunga-R. Kelley Pace. Spatial Statistics Applied to Commercial Real Estate. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,2010,41 (2):103-125.
[34]Jim Clayton & David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo. Commercial Real Estate Valuation: Fundamentals Versus Investor Sentiment. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,2009,38 (1):5-37.
[35]Jeungbo Shim. Mergers & Acquisitions, Diversification and Performance in the U.S. Property-Liability Insurance Industry. Journal of Financial Services Research,2011,39 (3):119-144.
[36]Peter J. Brady & Michael E. Conlin. The Performance of REIT-owned Properties and the Impact of REIT Market Power. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,2004.38 (1):81-95.
[37]Slatin. Peter. Fortune Favors The Bold in REITs. Forbes,2010,186 (8):42.