西安市房地产投资与经济增长的互动关系研究
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摘要
房地产投资作为全社会固定资产投资的重要组成部分,在国民经济增长中扮演着十分重要的角色。近年来,我国部分地区出现的房地产投资规模过大、增速过快、结构失衡等问题,为国民经济的稳定增长带来了巨大的隐患。因此,多角度研究房地产投资与经济增长之间的互动关系对政府部门制定相关政策,实施宏观调控,实现房地产业与宏观经济的良性互动具有重要意义。
论文总结了房地产投资与经济增长的相关理论；引用相关的时间序列数据分析西安市的经济增长轨迹和房地产投资轨迹；运用协整理论定量分析西安市房地产投资对经济增长的拉动作用和拉动效率,以及房地产投资与经济增长之间的因果关系；在此基础上,建立了VEC模型,运用脉冲响应函数分析西安市房地产投资与经济增长彼此受到冲击后的动态响应关系；运用主成分分析法和正态分布的3σ法则评价西安市房地产投资与国民经济的协调性,从房地产投资的规模和增长速度的角度判断近几年西安市房地产投资的冷热程度,并针对性地提出调控房地产投资的政策建议。
论文的研究成果进一步丰富了房地产投资与经济增长的相关理论,而且能为其他市的研究提供借鉴,同时对西安市有关部门审慎合理地制定房地产业的相关政策,促进房地产业与国民经济协调发展有重要的指导意义。
As an important part of social fixed assets investment, real estate investment plays a very important role in economic growth. In recent years, real estate investment of some areas in China appears some problems, such as too large scale, too fast growth rate and structural imbalance. These problems bring large hidden trouble for stable growth of national economy. Therefore, study interaction between real estate investment and economic growth from several angles has significance of making related policy, implementing macro-control, realizing benign interaction between real estate industry and macro-economy.
The paper summarizes related theories of real estate investment and economic growth; analyzes trajectories of real estate investment and economic growth by citing related time series data; analyzes pulling function and efficiency quantitatively of real estate investment on the economy growth, and causality between real estate investment and economic growth in Xi'an; on the basis, builds the VEC model, analyzes dynamic response relation between real estate investment and economic growth that is subjected to impact with each other in Xi'an by using impulse response function; evaluates Coordination between real estate investment and national economy in Xi'an by using principal component analysis and 3σrule of normal distribution, which judges heat of real estate investment by a perspective of scale and growth rate, also puts forward policy suggestions on regulating real estate investment in Xi'an.
Research on this problem enriches theories of real estate investment and economic growth, provides reference for studying of other cities, and has important guiding significance of making policy reasonably about real estate industry by the Xi'an government and promoting coordinated development of Xi'an real estate industry and national economy.
论文总结了房地产投资与经济增长的相关理论；引用相关的时间序列数据分析西安市的经济增长轨迹和房地产投资轨迹；运用协整理论定量分析西安市房地产投资对经济增长的拉动作用和拉动效率,以及房地产投资与经济增长之间的因果关系；在此基础上,建立了VEC模型,运用脉冲响应函数分析西安市房地产投资与经济增长彼此受到冲击后的动态响应关系；运用主成分分析法和正态分布的3σ法则评价西安市房地产投资与国民经济的协调性,从房地产投资的规模和增长速度的角度判断近几年西安市房地产投资的冷热程度,并针对性地提出调控房地产投资的政策建议。
论文的研究成果进一步丰富了房地产投资与经济增长的相关理论,而且能为其他市的研究提供借鉴,同时对西安市有关部门审慎合理地制定房地产业的相关政策,促进房地产业与国民经济协调发展有重要的指导意义。
As an important part of social fixed assets investment, real estate investment plays a very important role in economic growth. In recent years, real estate investment of some areas in China appears some problems, such as too large scale, too fast growth rate and structural imbalance. These problems bring large hidden trouble for stable growth of national economy. Therefore, study interaction between real estate investment and economic growth from several angles has significance of making related policy, implementing macro-control, realizing benign interaction between real estate industry and macro-economy.
The paper summarizes related theories of real estate investment and economic growth; analyzes trajectories of real estate investment and economic growth by citing related time series data; analyzes pulling function and efficiency quantitatively of real estate investment on the economy growth, and causality between real estate investment and economic growth in Xi'an; on the basis, builds the VEC model, analyzes dynamic response relation between real estate investment and economic growth that is subjected to impact with each other in Xi'an by using impulse response function; evaluates Coordination between real estate investment and national economy in Xi'an by using principal component analysis and 3σrule of normal distribution, which judges heat of real estate investment by a perspective of scale and growth rate, also puts forward policy suggestions on regulating real estate investment in Xi'an.
Research on this problem enriches theories of real estate investment and economic growth, provides reference for studying of other cities, and has important guiding significance of making policy reasonably about real estate industry by the Xi'an government and promoting coordinated development of Xi'an real estate industry and national economy.
引文
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[18]周达.房地产业与中国国民经济总量关系研究[J].石家庄经济学院学报,2003(8)
[19]中国房地产估价师与房地产经纪人学会.房地产开发经营与管理[M].北京：中国建筑工业出版社,2008
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[25]曹建元.房地产金融[M].上海：上海财经大学出版社,2003
[26]金晓敏.外资进入中国房地产市场的影响及政策研究[D].华中师范大学硕士学位论文,2008
[27]黄英.房地产开发与经营[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2009
[28]孙敬水.计量经济学教程[M].北京：清华大学出版社、北京交通大学出版社,2005
[29]王文博.计量经济学[M].西安：西安交通大学出版社,2004
[30]庞皓.计量经济学[M].北京：科学出版社,2004
[31]邓翔.计量经济学[M].成都：四川大学出版社,2002
[32]张利亚.基于协整与误差修正模型的预测[D].武汉科技大学硕士学位论文,2006
[33]Engle R.F, Yoo B.S. Forecasting and Testing in Cointegrated Systems[J]. Journal of Econometrics,1987 (35)
[34]Davidson, Russell and James G.Mackinnon. Estimation and Inference in Econometrics [M]. Oxford:Oxford University Press,1993
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[36]Sims C. Macroeconomics and reality [J]. Journal of Econometrics,1980 (48)
[37]Koop G, Pesaran M, Potter S. Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models[J]. Journal of Econometrics,1996 (74)
[38]马庆国.管理统计[M].北京：科学出版社,2002
[39]袁志发,周静芋.多元统计分析[M].北京：科学出版社,2002
[40]赵彦晖,杨金林.概率论与数理统计[M].西安：陕西科学技术出版社,2003
[41]夏利民,成福伟.概率统计中的正态分布[J].承德民族师专学报,2007(2)
[2]Richard K Green. Follow the Leader:How Changes in Residential and Non-residential Investment Predict in GDP[J]. Real Estate Economics,1997 (25)
[3]GBaird, S.A Chan. Cost of House and Light Construction Buildings and Remodeling of Existing House [J]. Real Estate Economics,2000 (76)
[4]Richard Barras. The Real Estate Economy and Design of Russian Housing Reform [J]. Urban Studies,1995 (16)
[5]C.William, D.Denise. Housing Problem and Housing Policy [J]. Journal of Social Policy,1998 (26)
[6]姚玲珍,刘旦.经济增长与住宅价格的因果关系分析[J].江西社会科学,2008(1)
[7]张琳,陈美亚.中国房地产业与经济增长关系研究[J].南京工业大学学报(社会科学版),2002(3)
[8]国家统计局综合司课题组.关于房地产对国民经济影响的初步分析[J].管理世界,2005(11)
[9]熊和安.经济增长对房地产投资的动态影响研究[J].当代经济,2007(10)
[10]唐志军,徐会军,巴曙松.中国房地产市场波动对宏观经济波动的影响研究[J].统计研究,2010(2)
[11]张兴,龚双红.影响当前房地产业非理性繁荣的宏观经济因素分析[J].云南财经大学学报,2008(1)
[12]孙天娇.基于四象限模型的房地产业与国民经济发展研究[J].当代经济,2009(8)
[13]张勇,闫鹏,杜子平.我国房地产业发展与宏观经济关联性研究[J].建筑经济,2010(1)
[14]沈悦,刘洪玉.中国房地产开发投资与GDP的互动关系[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2004(9)
[15]皮舜,武康平.房地产市场发展和经济增长间的因果关系——对我国的实证分析[J].管理评论,2004(3)
[16]刘红.中国城市房地产投资的动态经济效应[J].经济与管理研究,2006(3)
[17]梁云芳,高铁梅,贺书平.房地产市场与国民经济协调发展的实证分析[J].中国社会科学,2006(3)
[18]周达.房地产业与中国国民经济总量关系研究[J].石家庄经济学院学报,2003(8)
[19]中国房地产估价师与房地产经纪人学会.房地产开发经营与管理[M].北京：中国建筑工业出版社,2008
[20]吴文盛.宏观经济学[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2007
[21]曾伏秋,谭军良.宏观经济学[M].长沙：湖南大学出版社,2009
[22]徐顺喜,孙得宏.开发商决策论[M].北京：中国建筑工业出版社,1996
[23]周军,张伟.宏观经济学[M].武汉：武汉理工大学出版社,2003
[24]经济学教材编写组.宏观经济学[M].北京：科学出版社,2005
[25]曹建元.房地产金融[M].上海：上海财经大学出版社,2003
[26]金晓敏.外资进入中国房地产市场的影响及政策研究[D].华中师范大学硕士学位论文,2008
[27]黄英.房地产开发与经营[M].北京：机械工业出版社,2009
[28]孙敬水.计量经济学教程[M].北京：清华大学出版社、北京交通大学出版社,2005
[29]王文博.计量经济学[M].西安：西安交通大学出版社,2004
[30]庞皓.计量经济学[M].北京：科学出版社,2004
[31]邓翔.计量经济学[M].成都：四川大学出版社,2002
[32]张利亚.基于协整与误差修正模型的预测[D].武汉科技大学硕士学位论文,2006
[33]Engle R.F, Yoo B.S. Forecasting and Testing in Cointegrated Systems[J]. Journal of Econometrics,1987 (35)
[34]Davidson, Russell and James G.Mackinnon. Estimation and Inference in Econometrics [M]. Oxford:Oxford University Press,1993
[35]Engle R.F, Granger C.W.J. Cointegration and Error Correction:Representation, Estimation, and Testing, Econometrics [J]. Journal of Econometrics,1987 (55)
[36]Sims C. Macroeconomics and reality [J]. Journal of Econometrics,1980 (48)
[37]Koop G, Pesaran M, Potter S. Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models[J]. Journal of Econometrics,1996 (74)
[38]马庆国.管理统计[M].北京：科学出版社,2002
[39]袁志发,周静芋.多元统计分析[M].北京：科学出版社,2002
[40]赵彦晖,杨金林.概率论与数理统计[M].西安：陕西科学技术出版社,2003
[41]夏利民,成福伟.概率统计中的正态分布[J].承德民族师专学报,2007(2)