商品市场内外开放与中国经济增长
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摘要
改革开放三十年,中国经济的高速增长为世界所瞩目,且市场的对外开放程度不断提高,并得到各界公认;然而其对内开放程度却备受争议,甚至不少研究都认为中国的国内市场正在走向“非一体化”。中国国内市场的开放程度究竟如何?市场的对内开放由哪些因素决定?市场的开放对经济的高速增长发挥了怎样的作用?本文在分析了市场内外开放和经济增长相互影响的作用机制后,利用中国29个省(市)1995年至2007年的面板数据,对以上问题进行了深入研究。同时,鉴于数据的可得性,本文选择了商品市场的内外开放作为研究对象。
在总结借鉴前人的研究成果的基础上,我们选用了“相对价格方差”合理度量了中国国内省级商品市场的对内开放程度。结果表明,1995-2007年中国省级商品市场的对内开放程度是不断提高的,而并非如前人所言的走向“非一体化”。
考虑到市场对内开放和经济增长两者之间可能存在的内生性,本文建立了两者内生影响的联立方程模型,以求避免可能的联立内生性偏误。研究结果表明,虽然当前中国的经济增长仍主要由投资拉动,但商品市场的内外开放也都显著地促进了经济增长,并且在相对不发达地区的这种促进作用表现更加明显。同时,经济增长也显著地促进了市场的对内开放,而对外开放在一定程度上对对内开放产生了“替代效应”。根据实证分析结果,本文从对外开放和对内开放两方面给出了相关的政策建议。
China's reform and opening up had been going on for three decades, the magical speed of economic growth in this period made China to be the focus of the world. And the external opening was kept rising and got generally understood. However, there is a argument about the opening of the internal market, some researches even claimed that Chinese domestic market became”unintegrated”in the reform period. How far does Chinese domestic market’s opening have gone? What determined the inter-provincial markets’openess? And what’s the role of the opening playing in the China economic growth? The paper analyzes the interaction mechanism between the internal opening and economic growth, and make a deep research on the above problems, Using the 29 provinces’pool data from 1995 to 2007.Specially, we chose the commodity market as the research objective for the data’s’availability.
We conclude and draw form the previous studies, then take“variance of the relative prices”as the measurement of inter-provincial commodity market opening. The result shows that between 1995 to 2007, the extent of inter-provincial market’s opening was broadening, rather than the trend of“unintegration”.
Account for the possibility of endogeny between the inter-provincial market opening and the economic growth, we conduct a simultaneous equation model to avoid simultaneous endogenous bias. The result shows that the external and internal openness of commodity market benefits the China economic growth remarkably, and the benefit performs more significantly in the relatively undeveloped regions. But, to some extent, the external openness has played“substitution effect”to the internal openness. And Chinese economic growth was still mainly promoted by the investment. According these empirical results, the paper comes up with relative policies from respects of external and internal opening.
在总结借鉴前人的研究成果的基础上,我们选用了“相对价格方差”合理度量了中国国内省级商品市场的对内开放程度。结果表明,1995-2007年中国省级商品市场的对内开放程度是不断提高的,而并非如前人所言的走向“非一体化”。
考虑到市场对内开放和经济增长两者之间可能存在的内生性,本文建立了两者内生影响的联立方程模型,以求避免可能的联立内生性偏误。研究结果表明,虽然当前中国的经济增长仍主要由投资拉动,但商品市场的内外开放也都显著地促进了经济增长,并且在相对不发达地区的这种促进作用表现更加明显。同时,经济增长也显著地促进了市场的对内开放,而对外开放在一定程度上对对内开放产生了“替代效应”。根据实证分析结果,本文从对外开放和对内开放两方面给出了相关的政策建议。
China's reform and opening up had been going on for three decades, the magical speed of economic growth in this period made China to be the focus of the world. And the external opening was kept rising and got generally understood. However, there is a argument about the opening of the internal market, some researches even claimed that Chinese domestic market became”unintegrated”in the reform period. How far does Chinese domestic market’s opening have gone? What determined the inter-provincial markets’openess? And what’s the role of the opening playing in the China economic growth? The paper analyzes the interaction mechanism between the internal opening and economic growth, and make a deep research on the above problems, Using the 29 provinces’pool data from 1995 to 2007.Specially, we chose the commodity market as the research objective for the data’s’availability.
We conclude and draw form the previous studies, then take“variance of the relative prices”as the measurement of inter-provincial commodity market opening. The result shows that between 1995 to 2007, the extent of inter-provincial market’s opening was broadening, rather than the trend of“unintegration”.
Account for the possibility of endogeny between the inter-provincial market opening and the economic growth, we conduct a simultaneous equation model to avoid simultaneous endogenous bias. The result shows that the external and internal openness of commodity market benefits the China economic growth remarkably, and the benefit performs more significantly in the relatively undeveloped regions. But, to some extent, the external openness has played“substitution effect”to the internal openness. And Chinese economic growth was still mainly promoted by the investment. According these empirical results, the paper comes up with relative policies from respects of external and internal opening.
引文
[1] Young,Alwyn.The Razor’s Edge:Distortions and Incremental Reform in the People’s Republic of China[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2000,115(4): 1091-1135
[2] Poncet Sandra.中国市场正在走向“非一体化”——中国国内和国际市场一体化程度的比较分析[J].世界经济文汇, 2002,(1):3-17
[3] Naughton,Barry. How Much Can Regional Integration Do to Unify China’s Markets? [J].Paper presented for the Conference for Research on Economic Development and Policy, Stanford University, 1999, 24-40
[4] Carsten A.Holz.No Razor’s Edge:Reexamining Alwyn Young’s Evidence for Increasing Inter-Provincial Trade Barriers in China[J].paper presented for AEA Meeting, 2006, 15-20
[5]桂琦寒,陈敏,陆铭,陈钊.中国国内商品市场趋于分割还是整合:基于相对价格法的分析[J].世界经济, 2006,(2):20-30
[6] Kumar A. China:Internal Market Development and regulation[R]. Washington,DC, World Bank, 1994,1-21
[7] Poncet Sandra.Measuring Chinese domestic and international integration[J].China Economic Review, 2003, (14):1-21
[8] Poncet Sandra. Domestic Market Fragmentation and Economic Growth in China[J]. Working Paper, 2003, 1-10
[9] Poncet, Sandra. A Fragmented China: Measure and Determinants of Chinese Domestic Market Integration[J].Review of International Economics, 2005,13(3): 409-430
[10]赵永亮,徐勇.国际贸易与区际边界效应:保护与偏好[J].管理世界, 2007,(9): 37-47
[11] Xu Xinpeng. Have the Chinese Provinces Become Integrated under Reform? [J]. China Economic Review, 2002,(13):116-133
[12]沈立人,戴园晨.我国“诸侯经济”的形成及其弊端和根源[J].经济研究, 1990, (3): 1-8
[13]银温泉,才婉茹.我国地方市场分割的成因和治理[J].经济研究, 2001, (6):3-12
[14]林毅夫,刘培林.地方保护和市场分割:从发展战略的角度考察[J].北京大学中国经济研究中心工作论文, No. C2004015, 2004, 10-20
[15]周黎安.晋升博弈中政府官员的激励与合作:兼论我国地方保护主义和重复建设问题长期存在的原因[J].经济研究, 2004, (6):11-17
[16]何智美,王敬云.地方保护主义探源——一个政治晋升博弈模型[J].山西财经大学学报, 2007,(5):1-6
[17]皮建材.中国地方政府间竞争下的区域市场整合[J].经济研究, 2008, (3): 115-124
[18]陆铭,陈钊.收益递增、发展战略与区域经济的分割[J].经济研究, 2004, (1): 24-32
[19]陆铭,陈钊,杨真真.平等与增长携手并进——一个基于收益递增的策略性劳动分工模型[J].经济学(季刊), 2007, 6(2):443-468
[20]陈敏,桂琦寒等.中国经济增长如何持续发挥规模效应-经济开放与国内商品市场分割的实证研究[J].经济学(季刊), 2007,7(1):125-150
[21]范爱军,李真,刘小勇.国内市场分割及其影响因素的实证分析——以我国商品市场为例[J].南开经济研究, 2007,(5):111-119
[22]陈光炎.中国:全国产品和要素市场的分割:经济成本和政策建议[R].世界银行报告, 2005, (6):1-6
[23]郑毓盛,李崇高.中国地方分割的效率损失[J].中国社会科学, 2003, (1):64-72
[24]徐现祥,李郇.市场一体化与区域协调发展[J].经济研究, 2005,(12):57-67
[25]陆铭,陈钊.以邻为壑的经济增长——为什么经济开放可能加剧市场分割[J].经济研究, 2009, (3):6-15
[26] Krugman , P. and Helpman , E. , Market Structure and Foreign Trade[J]. MIT Press, Cambridge , MA. 1985, 112-136
[27] Quah D., Rauch J.E. Openness and the Rate of Economic Growth[J]. Working Paper. University of California. San Diego.1990, 26-33
[28]兰宜生.贸易开放度与地区经济增长的实证分析[J].统计研究,2002, (2):21-27
[29]包群,许和连,赖明勇.贸易开放度与经济增长:理论及中国的经验研究[J].世界经济, 2003, (2):40-46
[30]郭妍,张立光.我国经济开放度的度量及其与经济增长的实证分析[J].统计研究, 2004, (4):26-30
[31]康继军,张宗益,傅蕴益.开放经济下的经济增长模型:中国的经验[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2007, (1):3-21
[32]盘为龙等.贸易开放、投资效率与中国的经济增长-基于“Krugger-Bhagwati”范式的经验研究[J].世界经济研究, 2007, (7):9-14, 25
[33]黄新飞,舒元.贸易开放度、产业专业化与中国经济增长研究[J].国际贸易问题, 2007, (12):35-39
[34]库兹涅茨.现代经济增长:事实与思考.诺贝尔经济学奖获得者讲演集1969—1981[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社, 1986, 97-98
[35] Philippe Aghion, Peter Howitt.内生增长理论[M].陶然,倪彬华,汪柏林.北京:北京大学出版社, 2004, (4):11-31
[36] McCallum,J.National Borders Matter:Canada-US Regional Trade Patters[J]. American Economic Review,1995,85(3):615-623
[37]李郇,徐现祥.边界效应的测定方法及其在长江三角洲的应用[J].地理研究, 2006,25(5):792-801
[38]黄赜琳,王敬云.地方保护和市场分割:来自中国的经验数据[J].中国工业经济, 2006, (2):60-67
[39]白重恩,杜颖娟,陶志刚等.地方保护主义及产业集中度的决定因素和变动趋势[J].经济研究, 2004,(4):29-40
[40] Parsley, D.,S. Wei. Limitting Curruncy Volatility to Stimulate Goods Market Integration: A Price Based Approach[J]. NBER Working Paper8468, 2001, 3-17
[41]喻闻,黄季焜 .从大米市场整合程度看我国粮食市场改革[J].经济研究, 1998, (3): 50-57
[42]李杰,孙燕群.从啤酒市场整合程度看WTO对消除地方保护的影响[J].世界经济, 2004, (6):37-45
[43] Helliwell, J. F.,A. Chung. Are Bigger Countries Better for Economic Dimensions of Constitutional Change. Edited by R. Boadway[J], T. Courchene, D. Purvis. Kingston.John Deutsch Institute, 1991, 345–67
[44] Patrick, L., Marcelo O., and S.Javier. Does Globalization Cause a Higher Concentration of International Trade and Investment Flow? [J]. WTO Working Paper, 1998, (8):5-22
[45]许统生,黄彦.我国外贸依存度分析[J].当代财经, 2003, (4):71-73
[46]沈利生.论外贸依存度——兼论计算外贸依存度的新公式[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2005, (7):15-24
[47]张素芳,房剑.外贸依存度测算方法的改进及对中国外贸依存度的重新估计[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2006,(6):82-88
[48] Leamer, E. Measures of openness: Trade policy an d Empirical Analysis[J]. University of Chicago Press,1988, 147-204
[49] Harrison, A.. Openness and Growth : A Time series , Cross-country Analysis forDeveloping Countries[J].Journal of Development Economics , 1996 ,(48):419-447
[50] Stewart, W..Institutional Quality and Its Effect on Trade: an Empirical Analysis[J].UBC Economic Honors Thesis,1999, 55-84
[51] Dollars , D.. Outward-oriented Developing Economies Really Do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs , 1976– 85[J]. Economic Development and Cultural Change,1992,40 (3):523-5441
[52] Levine ,R., and Renelt, D. , A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions[J].The American Economic Review,1992,(82):942-9631
[53] Edwards, S..Trade Orientation, Distortion , and Growth in Developing Countries[J].Journal of Developing Economics,1992,39 (1):31-571
[54] Fan,C.,Xiaodong Wei.The Law of One Price: Evidence from the Transitional Economy of China[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2006,88(4):682-697
[2] Poncet Sandra.中国市场正在走向“非一体化”——中国国内和国际市场一体化程度的比较分析[J].世界经济文汇, 2002,(1):3-17
[3] Naughton,Barry. How Much Can Regional Integration Do to Unify China’s Markets? [J].Paper presented for the Conference for Research on Economic Development and Policy, Stanford University, 1999, 24-40
[4] Carsten A.Holz.No Razor’s Edge:Reexamining Alwyn Young’s Evidence for Increasing Inter-Provincial Trade Barriers in China[J].paper presented for AEA Meeting, 2006, 15-20
[5]桂琦寒,陈敏,陆铭,陈钊.中国国内商品市场趋于分割还是整合:基于相对价格法的分析[J].世界经济, 2006,(2):20-30
[6] Kumar A. China:Internal Market Development and regulation[R]. Washington,DC, World Bank, 1994,1-21
[7] Poncet Sandra.Measuring Chinese domestic and international integration[J].China Economic Review, 2003, (14):1-21
[8] Poncet Sandra. Domestic Market Fragmentation and Economic Growth in China[J]. Working Paper, 2003, 1-10
[9] Poncet, Sandra. A Fragmented China: Measure and Determinants of Chinese Domestic Market Integration[J].Review of International Economics, 2005,13(3): 409-430
[10]赵永亮,徐勇.国际贸易与区际边界效应:保护与偏好[J].管理世界, 2007,(9): 37-47
[11] Xu Xinpeng. Have the Chinese Provinces Become Integrated under Reform? [J]. China Economic Review, 2002,(13):116-133
[12]沈立人,戴园晨.我国“诸侯经济”的形成及其弊端和根源[J].经济研究, 1990, (3): 1-8
[13]银温泉,才婉茹.我国地方市场分割的成因和治理[J].经济研究, 2001, (6):3-12
[14]林毅夫,刘培林.地方保护和市场分割:从发展战略的角度考察[J].北京大学中国经济研究中心工作论文, No. C2004015, 2004, 10-20
[15]周黎安.晋升博弈中政府官员的激励与合作:兼论我国地方保护主义和重复建设问题长期存在的原因[J].经济研究, 2004, (6):11-17
[16]何智美,王敬云.地方保护主义探源——一个政治晋升博弈模型[J].山西财经大学学报, 2007,(5):1-6
[17]皮建材.中国地方政府间竞争下的区域市场整合[J].经济研究, 2008, (3): 115-124
[18]陆铭,陈钊.收益递增、发展战略与区域经济的分割[J].经济研究, 2004, (1): 24-32
[19]陆铭,陈钊,杨真真.平等与增长携手并进——一个基于收益递增的策略性劳动分工模型[J].经济学(季刊), 2007, 6(2):443-468
[20]陈敏,桂琦寒等.中国经济增长如何持续发挥规模效应-经济开放与国内商品市场分割的实证研究[J].经济学(季刊), 2007,7(1):125-150
[21]范爱军,李真,刘小勇.国内市场分割及其影响因素的实证分析——以我国商品市场为例[J].南开经济研究, 2007,(5):111-119
[22]陈光炎.中国:全国产品和要素市场的分割:经济成本和政策建议[R].世界银行报告, 2005, (6):1-6
[23]郑毓盛,李崇高.中国地方分割的效率损失[J].中国社会科学, 2003, (1):64-72
[24]徐现祥,李郇.市场一体化与区域协调发展[J].经济研究, 2005,(12):57-67
[25]陆铭,陈钊.以邻为壑的经济增长——为什么经济开放可能加剧市场分割[J].经济研究, 2009, (3):6-15
[26] Krugman , P. and Helpman , E. , Market Structure and Foreign Trade[J]. MIT Press, Cambridge , MA. 1985, 112-136
[27] Quah D., Rauch J.E. Openness and the Rate of Economic Growth[J]. Working Paper. University of California. San Diego.1990, 26-33
[28]兰宜生.贸易开放度与地区经济增长的实证分析[J].统计研究,2002, (2):21-27
[29]包群,许和连,赖明勇.贸易开放度与经济增长:理论及中国的经验研究[J].世界经济, 2003, (2):40-46
[30]郭妍,张立光.我国经济开放度的度量及其与经济增长的实证分析[J].统计研究, 2004, (4):26-30
[31]康继军,张宗益,傅蕴益.开放经济下的经济增长模型:中国的经验[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2007, (1):3-21
[32]盘为龙等.贸易开放、投资效率与中国的经济增长-基于“Krugger-Bhagwati”范式的经验研究[J].世界经济研究, 2007, (7):9-14, 25
[33]黄新飞,舒元.贸易开放度、产业专业化与中国经济增长研究[J].国际贸易问题, 2007, (12):35-39
[34]库兹涅茨.现代经济增长:事实与思考.诺贝尔经济学奖获得者讲演集1969—1981[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社, 1986, 97-98
[35] Philippe Aghion, Peter Howitt.内生增长理论[M].陶然,倪彬华,汪柏林.北京:北京大学出版社, 2004, (4):11-31
[36] McCallum,J.National Borders Matter:Canada-US Regional Trade Patters[J]. American Economic Review,1995,85(3):615-623
[37]李郇,徐现祥.边界效应的测定方法及其在长江三角洲的应用[J].地理研究, 2006,25(5):792-801
[38]黄赜琳,王敬云.地方保护和市场分割:来自中国的经验数据[J].中国工业经济, 2006, (2):60-67
[39]白重恩,杜颖娟,陶志刚等.地方保护主义及产业集中度的决定因素和变动趋势[J].经济研究, 2004,(4):29-40
[40] Parsley, D.,S. Wei. Limitting Curruncy Volatility to Stimulate Goods Market Integration: A Price Based Approach[J]. NBER Working Paper8468, 2001, 3-17
[41]喻闻,黄季焜 .从大米市场整合程度看我国粮食市场改革[J].经济研究, 1998, (3): 50-57
[42]李杰,孙燕群.从啤酒市场整合程度看WTO对消除地方保护的影响[J].世界经济, 2004, (6):37-45
[43] Helliwell, J. F.,A. Chung. Are Bigger Countries Better for Economic Dimensions of Constitutional Change. Edited by R. Boadway[J], T. Courchene, D. Purvis. Kingston.John Deutsch Institute, 1991, 345–67
[44] Patrick, L., Marcelo O., and S.Javier. Does Globalization Cause a Higher Concentration of International Trade and Investment Flow? [J]. WTO Working Paper, 1998, (8):5-22
[45]许统生,黄彦.我国外贸依存度分析[J].当代财经, 2003, (4):71-73
[46]沈利生.论外贸依存度——兼论计算外贸依存度的新公式[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2005, (7):15-24
[47]张素芳,房剑.外贸依存度测算方法的改进及对中国外贸依存度的重新估计[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2006,(6):82-88
[48] Leamer, E. Measures of openness: Trade policy an d Empirical Analysis[J]. University of Chicago Press,1988, 147-204
[49] Harrison, A.. Openness and Growth : A Time series , Cross-country Analysis forDeveloping Countries[J].Journal of Development Economics , 1996 ,(48):419-447
[50] Stewart, W..Institutional Quality and Its Effect on Trade: an Empirical Analysis[J].UBC Economic Honors Thesis,1999, 55-84
[51] Dollars , D.. Outward-oriented Developing Economies Really Do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs , 1976– 85[J]. Economic Development and Cultural Change,1992,40 (3):523-5441
[52] Levine ,R., and Renelt, D. , A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions[J].The American Economic Review,1992,(82):942-9631
[53] Edwards, S..Trade Orientation, Distortion , and Growth in Developing Countries[J].Journal of Developing Economics,1992,39 (1):31-571
[54] Fan,C.,Xiaodong Wei.The Law of One Price: Evidence from the Transitional Economy of China[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,2006,88(4):682-697