我国服务贸易的要素收入效应研究
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摘要
20世纪80年代以来,随着全球化的发展和国际分工的深化,国际服务贸易迅速发展,已经成为各国综合国力和竞争力的重要衡量标准。我国服务贸易虽然起步较晚,但近年来规模不断扩大,结构深刻变革,已经成为我国对外贸易的重要组成部分。在国际上,我国日益从服务贸易小国发展成为大国,进出口额世界排名不断提高。与货物贸易的实体商品贸易方式不同,服务贸易是服务的跨国流动,从本质上来讲就是劳动力、资本等要素通过不同的方式和载体的国际间流动,因此服务贸易对于要素收入的影响相对更为直接,且更易受到要素流动性的影响。我国作为劳动要素充裕而资本、知识、技术等要素相对稀缺的国家,服务贸易对于国内要素收入的影响更为重要,直接关系到我国服务贸易竞争力提高的效率和方式。
从理论上来讲,贸易的收入效应一直是贸易理论的重要组成部分,以传统贸易理论为基础的S-S定理及要素价格均等化的推论,和以新贸易理论为前提的BROWN模型,都对贸易发展的要素收入作用进行了深入分析。一般认为,贸易理论基本上是适用于服务贸易研究的。但服务贸易存在无形性、同步性、主观性等诸多特点,因此从服务贸易的特点和根源出发研究其对要素收入的影响具有重要的理论价值。
本文通过对已有贸易要素收入理论的总结和对比,从企业内部生产分工视角对服务贸易的要素收入作用进行深入分析,提出了要素生产率机制、要素需求机制和产品相对价格等三重作用机制。在此基础上,结合我国服务贸易发展和要素收入的实际,探讨了我国服务贸易与熟练劳动力、非熟练劳动力、资本要素的长短期关系,特别是从行业角度进行了相关性分析。结合理论模型,进一步就服务贸易要素收入作用的生产率机制具体分析,计算了我国服务贸易对要素收入的生产率弹性。与此同时,服务业作为特殊的行业,与制造业的产业关联性对于服务贸易要素收入效应的影响较为重要,因此本文将产业关联性作为我国服务贸易要素收入效应的重要前提进行了深入探讨。全社会福利效应及福利分配效应的分析是对策建议的前提,本文通过“无服务贸易的均衡”与“服务贸易均衡”条件的对比,分析了我国服务贸易对要素收入影响的内在原因、服务贸易对国内要素收入与国外要素收入差距的影响以及不同要素之间福利的分配和转移效应。实证分析、生产率机制分析、产业关联效应分析以及社会福利分配效应均表明,长期内我国服务贸易的发展会降低劳动要素所有者的收入,提高资本要素所有者的收入,且资本要素所有者增加部分的收入来源于劳动要素所有者收入的降低。另外,针对不同行业的分析表明我国服务贸易的发展对于要素收入的影响具有一定的行业特性,特别是对于劳动密集型行业和知识技术密集型行业的影响存在较大差异。最后,结合论文的分析结论,明晰了我国服务贸易要素收入作用的根本原因,并提出了针对性的对策建议。
Since the 1980's to 1990's, with the development of globalization and the deepening of international division, the international services trade has growing rapidly and the services trade has becoming one of the important metrics of a country's overall national strength and competitiveness. China's service trade, though started late, has been expanding in recent years and the structural of services trade has changed profoundly. The services trade in China has becoming an important component of China's foreign trade. In the international arena, China has changed from a small country of services trade to a major power in services imports and exports, the world rankings also increased rapidly.At the same time, different from the trade in physical goods, trade in services is a service cross-border movement, which is the international mobile of labor, capital and other factors in different ways and carriers among countries in the world. Then, the relative impact of Services trade to factor income is more direct and profound. In particular, as a country of labor abundance and capital, knowledge, technology and other factors scarce, the impact of services trade on factor income of China is directly related to the competitiveness and the efficiency improving ways of services trade.
Theoretically speaking, the income effect of trade has always been an important part of trade theory, some theories like S-S theory and Factor Price Equalization theory which are based on the traditional trade theory and Brown Model based on New Trade Theory are all deeply analyzed the influence of services trade to factor income.Generally, it is believed that the trade theory is basically applicable to services trade analysis.However, there are special natures of trade in services, such as intangible, synchronization and subjectivity and so on. Then there is certain theoretical value in studying the impact of services trade on income factors from the point of characteristics and causes of servicestrade.
Therefore, based on summary and comparison of the existing factor income trade theory, the dissertation deeply analyze the services trade impact on factor income from the perspective of production-sharing inner companies and propose three action mechanisms, that is factor productivity mechanism, factor demand mechanism and product relative prices mechanism. On this basis, combined with the real status of China's services trade the factor income, the study discuss the inherent relationship between China's services trade and the income of skilled-labor, unskilled-labor and capital using data. Combined with theoretical models, the article discusses the productivity mechanism deeply and calculates the income elasticity of China's services trade and the direction role of the elements. At the same time, as a special industry, the service industry highly related to the other industries, so the industry relationship can affect the factor income role of services trade. Then the article studies the services trade impact on factor income with the industry relationship as an important prerequisite. A welfare effect of the whole society is the important premise of the whole policy proposals. The article contrast the conditions between "without services trade balance"and "balance on services trade", and further discuss the elements of China's underlying causes of services trade impact on factor income, the reason of income gap between domestic factor income and foreign elements, the distributional welfare and transfer effects.Empirical analysis using data, productivity mechanism analysis, industrial linkage effect analysis and welfare distributional effects showed that China's services trade development will reduce the income of labor-factor owners, while raising the income of capital owner, and the capital elements income increasing part are came from the reduction of labor factor owners. In addition, the consideration of different industries showed that China's service trade development of factor income effects have certain sector specific features, especially for labor-intensive industries and knowledge and technology-intensive industries. Finally, combined with the preceding analysis conclusions, the study analyze the root causes of the impact of China'sservices trade on factor income and put forward specific policy proposals.
从理论上来讲,贸易的收入效应一直是贸易理论的重要组成部分,以传统贸易理论为基础的S-S定理及要素价格均等化的推论,和以新贸易理论为前提的BROWN模型,都对贸易发展的要素收入作用进行了深入分析。一般认为,贸易理论基本上是适用于服务贸易研究的。但服务贸易存在无形性、同步性、主观性等诸多特点,因此从服务贸易的特点和根源出发研究其对要素收入的影响具有重要的理论价值。
本文通过对已有贸易要素收入理论的总结和对比,从企业内部生产分工视角对服务贸易的要素收入作用进行深入分析,提出了要素生产率机制、要素需求机制和产品相对价格等三重作用机制。在此基础上,结合我国服务贸易发展和要素收入的实际,探讨了我国服务贸易与熟练劳动力、非熟练劳动力、资本要素的长短期关系,特别是从行业角度进行了相关性分析。结合理论模型,进一步就服务贸易要素收入作用的生产率机制具体分析,计算了我国服务贸易对要素收入的生产率弹性。与此同时,服务业作为特殊的行业,与制造业的产业关联性对于服务贸易要素收入效应的影响较为重要,因此本文将产业关联性作为我国服务贸易要素收入效应的重要前提进行了深入探讨。全社会福利效应及福利分配效应的分析是对策建议的前提,本文通过“无服务贸易的均衡”与“服务贸易均衡”条件的对比,分析了我国服务贸易对要素收入影响的内在原因、服务贸易对国内要素收入与国外要素收入差距的影响以及不同要素之间福利的分配和转移效应。实证分析、生产率机制分析、产业关联效应分析以及社会福利分配效应均表明,长期内我国服务贸易的发展会降低劳动要素所有者的收入,提高资本要素所有者的收入,且资本要素所有者增加部分的收入来源于劳动要素所有者收入的降低。另外,针对不同行业的分析表明我国服务贸易的发展对于要素收入的影响具有一定的行业特性,特别是对于劳动密集型行业和知识技术密集型行业的影响存在较大差异。最后,结合论文的分析结论,明晰了我国服务贸易要素收入作用的根本原因,并提出了针对性的对策建议。
Since the 1980's to 1990's, with the development of globalization and the deepening of international division, the international services trade has growing rapidly and the services trade has becoming one of the important metrics of a country's overall national strength and competitiveness. China's service trade, though started late, has been expanding in recent years and the structural of services trade has changed profoundly. The services trade in China has becoming an important component of China's foreign trade. In the international arena, China has changed from a small country of services trade to a major power in services imports and exports, the world rankings also increased rapidly.At the same time, different from the trade in physical goods, trade in services is a service cross-border movement, which is the international mobile of labor, capital and other factors in different ways and carriers among countries in the world. Then, the relative impact of Services trade to factor income is more direct and profound. In particular, as a country of labor abundance and capital, knowledge, technology and other factors scarce, the impact of services trade on factor income of China is directly related to the competitiveness and the efficiency improving ways of services trade.
Theoretically speaking, the income effect of trade has always been an important part of trade theory, some theories like S-S theory and Factor Price Equalization theory which are based on the traditional trade theory and Brown Model based on New Trade Theory are all deeply analyzed the influence of services trade to factor income.Generally, it is believed that the trade theory is basically applicable to services trade analysis.However, there are special natures of trade in services, such as intangible, synchronization and subjectivity and so on. Then there is certain theoretical value in studying the impact of services trade on income factors from the point of characteristics and causes of servicestrade.
Therefore, based on summary and comparison of the existing factor income trade theory, the dissertation deeply analyze the services trade impact on factor income from the perspective of production-sharing inner companies and propose three action mechanisms, that is factor productivity mechanism, factor demand mechanism and product relative prices mechanism. On this basis, combined with the real status of China's services trade the factor income, the study discuss the inherent relationship between China's services trade and the income of skilled-labor, unskilled-labor and capital using data. Combined with theoretical models, the article discusses the productivity mechanism deeply and calculates the income elasticity of China's services trade and the direction role of the elements. At the same time, as a special industry, the service industry highly related to the other industries, so the industry relationship can affect the factor income role of services trade. Then the article studies the services trade impact on factor income with the industry relationship as an important prerequisite. A welfare effect of the whole society is the important premise of the whole policy proposals. The article contrast the conditions between "without services trade balance"and "balance on services trade", and further discuss the elements of China's underlying causes of services trade impact on factor income, the reason of income gap between domestic factor income and foreign elements, the distributional welfare and transfer effects.Empirical analysis using data, productivity mechanism analysis, industrial linkage effect analysis and welfare distributional effects showed that China's services trade development will reduce the income of labor-factor owners, while raising the income of capital owner, and the capital elements income increasing part are came from the reduction of labor factor owners. In addition, the consideration of different industries showed that China's service trade development of factor income effects have certain sector specific features, especially for labor-intensive industries and knowledge and technology-intensive industries. Finally, combined with the preceding analysis conclusions, the study analyze the root causes of the impact of China'sservices trade on factor income and put forward specific policy proposals.
引文
①鲍莫尔成本病,即若将制造业部门视为“进步部门(Progressive sector)",而服务业部门视为“停滞部门(Stagnant Sector) ",则随着经济的发展,制造业部门的生产率不断上升,服务业部门的生产率增长较少,则服务业部门的相对成本会不断提高,导致最后经济发展趋同于服务业部门的发展。
②程大中,中国服务业存在“成本病”问题吗?[J],财贸经济,2008(12)：109-115.
①王绍媛.《国际服务贸易》[M].东北财经大学出版社,2007,P21-22
①中国服务贸易指南网,http:／／tradeinservices.mofcom.gov.cn/index.shtml?method=view&id=2547,最后访问日期2010年4月10日。
①陈宪,程大中.服务贸易的发展：上海的经验[J].《上海经济研究》.2003,(10).
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