洪水演算方法在白龙江河段洪水预报中的应用研究
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摘要
白龙江流域滑坡、泥石流及暴洪灾害广泛存在,而水电、水资源开发工程沿干支流密集分布,对流域水文影响日益加深,建立一个防洪决策支持系统非常重要。本文运用马斯京根法和MIKE11HD模型分别在该河流部分河段建立模型,研究河道洪水的演进过程,进行洪水预报。
选定白龙江立节水文站至武都水文站河段及其区间支流为洪水演算的建模区域,本文先应用马斯京根法建立河道洪水演算的水文学模型,采用水力学和经验试错相结合的方法进行参数率定,并分析流量对参数的影响情况,给出不同流量下的模型参数,完成模型验证。在相同河段运用MIKE11HD模型,结合ArcGIS等工具组织数据,建立一维河网水动力模型,分析确定符合实际、模拟精度高的主要参数糙率n值。并对两种方法建立的模型进行比较,结果表明,两种方法都能够用于预报模拟河段的洪水过程；但MIKE11模型有明确定的物理意义,能够很好地反映模拟河段的河道特征,能够更好地适用于山区河流的河道洪水预报。
目前,白龙江流域规划建设了数以百计的水电站,研究河段干流建设引水式电站13座,渠首拦河坝对河道行洪能力产生了一定影响,本文采用已建立的MIKE11模型,在河网数据中根据电站设计参数设置过水建筑物溢流堰,研究在设计洪水条件下,下游出口断面以及河道的特定断面的水位或流量的过程变化,解决了梯级电站影响下的河道洪水预报。
The disaster, especially landslide、mudflow and flash flood, exist broadly in Bailong basin. Projects about hydroelectric and water-resources development which distribute intensively along the main stream and tributaries, have growing influence on watershed hydrology. It is essential to establish a flood control decision support system. This paper established model to study the evolutionary process of the river flood and forecast floods on partly channel of Bailong river, by using Muskingum method and MIKE11HD model.
This paper selected stream segment as well as the attached branches between Lijie hydrologic station and Wudu hydrologic station as the modeling area, established the hydrology modeling of river course flood routing applying Muskingum method, combined hydraulics method with trial and error to calibrate parameters, meanwhile analyzed the flow's influence on the parameter conditions, got parameter model under different levels of flow and completed the model validation finally. We used MIKE11HD model combined with analysis tools such as ArcGIS at the same reach to establish one-dimensional hydrodynamic model for river network, analysis confirmed the model's main parameter roughness(n), it met the realistic simulation precision. Comparing the models based on the two different methods, according to the results, good simulation effect had been achieved in calculating the flood on Bailong river, both of them could able to be applied to the river channel flood forecasting. Comparatively speaking, MIKE11model have a higher simulation accuracy.
Nowadays, hundreds of hydropower stations had been planning and constructing on Bailong river basin, there are13stations with leading water within the research area. The headwork dam has an impact on the river's flood discharging ability. Utilizing the established model MIKE11HD, this article installs structures in the overflow weir acordding to the designing parameters of power station.By the way of researching the variation in process of water level or discharge for downstream of the outlet section and the specific section of the river under flooding condition, we find some techniques for settling the issue of Watercourse-Flood Forecast under the influence of cascade hydropower stations.
选定白龙江立节水文站至武都水文站河段及其区间支流为洪水演算的建模区域,本文先应用马斯京根法建立河道洪水演算的水文学模型,采用水力学和经验试错相结合的方法进行参数率定,并分析流量对参数的影响情况,给出不同流量下的模型参数,完成模型验证。在相同河段运用MIKE11HD模型,结合ArcGIS等工具组织数据,建立一维河网水动力模型,分析确定符合实际、模拟精度高的主要参数糙率n值。并对两种方法建立的模型进行比较,结果表明,两种方法都能够用于预报模拟河段的洪水过程；但MIKE11模型有明确定的物理意义,能够很好地反映模拟河段的河道特征,能够更好地适用于山区河流的河道洪水预报。
目前,白龙江流域规划建设了数以百计的水电站,研究河段干流建设引水式电站13座,渠首拦河坝对河道行洪能力产生了一定影响,本文采用已建立的MIKE11模型,在河网数据中根据电站设计参数设置过水建筑物溢流堰,研究在设计洪水条件下,下游出口断面以及河道的特定断面的水位或流量的过程变化,解决了梯级电站影响下的河道洪水预报。
The disaster, especially landslide、mudflow and flash flood, exist broadly in Bailong basin. Projects about hydroelectric and water-resources development which distribute intensively along the main stream and tributaries, have growing influence on watershed hydrology. It is essential to establish a flood control decision support system. This paper established model to study the evolutionary process of the river flood and forecast floods on partly channel of Bailong river, by using Muskingum method and MIKE11HD model.
This paper selected stream segment as well as the attached branches between Lijie hydrologic station and Wudu hydrologic station as the modeling area, established the hydrology modeling of river course flood routing applying Muskingum method, combined hydraulics method with trial and error to calibrate parameters, meanwhile analyzed the flow's influence on the parameter conditions, got parameter model under different levels of flow and completed the model validation finally. We used MIKE11HD model combined with analysis tools such as ArcGIS at the same reach to establish one-dimensional hydrodynamic model for river network, analysis confirmed the model's main parameter roughness(n), it met the realistic simulation precision. Comparing the models based on the two different methods, according to the results, good simulation effect had been achieved in calculating the flood on Bailong river, both of them could able to be applied to the river channel flood forecasting. Comparatively speaking, MIKE11model have a higher simulation accuracy.
Nowadays, hundreds of hydropower stations had been planning and constructing on Bailong river basin, there are13stations with leading water within the research area. The headwork dam has an impact on the river's flood discharging ability. Utilizing the established model MIKE11HD, this article installs structures in the overflow weir acordding to the designing parameters of power station.By the way of researching the variation in process of water level or discharge for downstream of the outlet section and the specific section of the river under flooding condition, we find some techniques for settling the issue of Watercourse-Flood Forecast under the influence of cascade hydropower stations.
引文
[1]陈凯.甘肃省长江流域暴雨洪水特性及灾害防治措施分析[J].甘肃省水利水电技术2012,48(2)：6-8.
[2]李连第.武都城区“84·8·3”泥石流浅析[J].水土保持通报,1985,2.
[3]赵玉春,崔春光.2010年8月8日舟曲特大泥石流暴雨天气过程成因分析[J].暴雨灾害,2010,29(003)：289-295.
[4]张泉生.水文预报[M].南京河海大学出版社.2000.
[5]吴持恭.水力学[M].高等教育出版社,2003.
[6]Mccarthy G T. The unit hydrograph and Flood routing[M]. Presented at Conf North Atl Div US Crops Eng,1938.
[7]Kalinin G P, Milyukov P I. On the computation of unsteady flow in open channels[J]. Met. Gidrol,1957,10:10-18.
[8]左广巍.河道洪水演算方法的研究与应用[D].大连：大连理工大学,2004.
[9]Isaacson E, Keller H B. Analysis of numerical methods[M]. Courier Dover Publications,1994.
[10]Cunge J A. On the subject of flood propagation computation method (Muskingum method)[J]. Journal of hydraulic Research,1969,7.
[11]Dooge J.C. Linear theory of hydrologic systems[M].Washington DC:Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service,1973.
[12]张真奇,夏自强.洪水预报水文水力学模型研究[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2002,30(5)：83-86.
[13]李传奇,沈五伟,张金存等.济南市河网水动力数值模拟研究[J].水力学与水利信息学进展2009.
[14]Brunner G W. HEC-RAS River Analysis System. Hydraulic Reference Manual. Version 1.0[R]. HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING CENTER DAVIS CA, 1995.
[15]Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI). MIKE 11:A Modeling System for Rivers and Channels Reference Manual[M]. DHI,2005.
[16]库德泽威奇,郑丰译,刘渝校.非工程措施防洪与可持续发展[J].水利水电快报,2003,24(24)：8-12.
[17]McCulloch W S, Pitts W. A logical calculus of the ideas immanent in nervous activity[J]. The Bulletin of Mathematical Biophysics,1943,5(4):115-133.
[18]钱镜林.现代洪水预报技术研究[D].杭州：浙江大学,2004.
[19]Zhu M L, Fujita M, Hashimoto N. Application of neural networks to runoff prediction[J]. Stochastic and statistical method in hydrology and environmental engineering,1994,3: 205-216.
[20]Dengmual Z, Dongmai L I U, Stefang M. Time Series Neural Network Model for Hydrologic Forecasting[J]. Transactions of Tianjin University,2001,7(3).
[21]欧阳永保,丁红瑞.小波分析在水文预报中的应用[J].海河水利,2006,6：018.
[22]刘少华,毛红梅.种水文时间序列预报的新方法[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2002,35(4).
[23]Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI). MIKE 11:A Modeling System for Rivers and Channels User-Guide Manual, DHI,2005.
[24]Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI). MIKE VIEW:a results presentation tool for MOUSE, MIKE URBAN, MIKE NET and MIKE 11-User Guide and Tutorial, DHI,2005.
[25]Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI). The Common DHI User Interface for Project Oriented Water Modelling-User Guide, DHI,2005.
[26]李军,井艳文,潘安君等MIKE11模型结构及其在南沙河流域规划中的应用[J].北京水利,1998(5).
[27]王庆改,赵晓宏,吴文军等汉江中下游突发性水污染事故污染物运移扩散模型[J].水科学进展,199819(4)：500-504.
[28]张政.浦东新区水资源环境管理控制系统研究[D].同济大学,2007.
[29]杨绍沂,姚锡良,黄国如.基于MIKE11的流溪河河段洪水预报研究[J].广东水利水电,2011,1.
[30]闵要武,王俊,陈力.三峡水库入库流量计算及调洪演算方法探讨[J].人民长江,2011,42(6)：49-52.
[31]张旭异.泾河部分河段河道洪水演算研究[D].兰州大学,2012.
[32]郑国栋,顾立忠,李虎成.浅析明渠非恒定流计算Abbott六点中心格式[J].广东水利水电,2010,4：007.
[33]尹道举.白龙江流域暴雨洪水特性[J].西北水电1992(4),21-24.
[34]高前吉.大、暴雨分析与预报[J].甘肃气象简讯1979(5),2-4.
[35]王澄海.武都地区8-2大暴雨过程的天气学分析[J1.甘肃气象1985.(Z1)10-12.
[36]刘映德.白龙江宝珠寺水电站“8.20”特大暴雨洪水分析[J].四川电力技术2000.(S1)16-18.
[37]余剑如,刘载生.长江上游的水土流失与河流泥沙[J].水土保持学报1988,2(1),1-15.
[38]王文浩.白龙江林区生态环境变化与对策建议[J].人民长江2008,39(13),76-78.
[40]张旭异,孙继成,魏国孝等.改进的马斯京根法在渭河洪水演算中的应用[J].人民黄河,2010,32(011)：36-38.
[41]吕世文,冯明一.马斯京根法在郑家屯洪水预报方案中的应用[J].吉林水利,2004,12：002.
[42]张晓艳,欧剑,李杰友.北江飞来峡～石角河道洪水演算[J].广东水利水电,2005,5：017.
[43]苏焕甲.汾河下游河道洪水预报[J].山西水利科技,1996,1.
[44]谢碧海.新疆阿勒泰山区河流糙率规律浅析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2007,18(3)：101-103.
[45]何建京.明渠非均匀流糙率系数及水力特性研究[D].河海大学,2003.
[46]叶守泽,水利水电专家.水文水利计算[M].中国水利水电出版社,2008.
[2]李连第.武都城区“84·8·3”泥石流浅析[J].水土保持通报,1985,2.
[3]赵玉春,崔春光.2010年8月8日舟曲特大泥石流暴雨天气过程成因分析[J].暴雨灾害,2010,29(003)：289-295.
[4]张泉生.水文预报[M].南京河海大学出版社.2000.
[5]吴持恭.水力学[M].高等教育出版社,2003.
[6]Mccarthy G T. The unit hydrograph and Flood routing[M]. Presented at Conf North Atl Div US Crops Eng,1938.
[7]Kalinin G P, Milyukov P I. On the computation of unsteady flow in open channels[J]. Met. Gidrol,1957,10:10-18.
[8]左广巍.河道洪水演算方法的研究与应用[D].大连：大连理工大学,2004.
[9]Isaacson E, Keller H B. Analysis of numerical methods[M]. Courier Dover Publications,1994.
[10]Cunge J A. On the subject of flood propagation computation method (Muskingum method)[J]. Journal of hydraulic Research,1969,7.
[11]Dooge J.C. Linear theory of hydrologic systems[M].Washington DC:Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service,1973.
[12]张真奇,夏自强.洪水预报水文水力学模型研究[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2002,30(5)：83-86.
[13]李传奇,沈五伟,张金存等.济南市河网水动力数值模拟研究[J].水力学与水利信息学进展2009.
[14]Brunner G W. HEC-RAS River Analysis System. Hydraulic Reference Manual. Version 1.0[R]. HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING CENTER DAVIS CA, 1995.
[15]Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI). MIKE 11:A Modeling System for Rivers and Channels Reference Manual[M]. DHI,2005.
[16]库德泽威奇,郑丰译,刘渝校.非工程措施防洪与可持续发展[J].水利水电快报,2003,24(24)：8-12.
[17]McCulloch W S, Pitts W. A logical calculus of the ideas immanent in nervous activity[J]. The Bulletin of Mathematical Biophysics,1943,5(4):115-133.
[18]钱镜林.现代洪水预报技术研究[D].杭州：浙江大学,2004.
[19]Zhu M L, Fujita M, Hashimoto N. Application of neural networks to runoff prediction[J]. Stochastic and statistical method in hydrology and environmental engineering,1994,3: 205-216.
[20]Dengmual Z, Dongmai L I U, Stefang M. Time Series Neural Network Model for Hydrologic Forecasting[J]. Transactions of Tianjin University,2001,7(3).
[21]欧阳永保,丁红瑞.小波分析在水文预报中的应用[J].海河水利,2006,6：018.
[22]刘少华,毛红梅.种水文时间序列预报的新方法[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2002,35(4).
[23]Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI). MIKE 11:A Modeling System for Rivers and Channels User-Guide Manual, DHI,2005.
[24]Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI). MIKE VIEW:a results presentation tool for MOUSE, MIKE URBAN, MIKE NET and MIKE 11-User Guide and Tutorial, DHI,2005.
[25]Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI). The Common DHI User Interface for Project Oriented Water Modelling-User Guide, DHI,2005.
[26]李军,井艳文,潘安君等MIKE11模型结构及其在南沙河流域规划中的应用[J].北京水利,1998(5).
[27]王庆改,赵晓宏,吴文军等汉江中下游突发性水污染事故污染物运移扩散模型[J].水科学进展,199819(4)：500-504.
[28]张政.浦东新区水资源环境管理控制系统研究[D].同济大学,2007.
[29]杨绍沂,姚锡良,黄国如.基于MIKE11的流溪河河段洪水预报研究[J].广东水利水电,2011,1.
[30]闵要武,王俊,陈力.三峡水库入库流量计算及调洪演算方法探讨[J].人民长江,2011,42(6)：49-52.
[31]张旭异.泾河部分河段河道洪水演算研究[D].兰州大学,2012.
[32]郑国栋,顾立忠,李虎成.浅析明渠非恒定流计算Abbott六点中心格式[J].广东水利水电,2010,4：007.
[33]尹道举.白龙江流域暴雨洪水特性[J].西北水电1992(4),21-24.
[34]高前吉.大、暴雨分析与预报[J].甘肃气象简讯1979(5),2-4.
[35]王澄海.武都地区8-2大暴雨过程的天气学分析[J1.甘肃气象1985.(Z1)10-12.
[36]刘映德.白龙江宝珠寺水电站“8.20”特大暴雨洪水分析[J].四川电力技术2000.(S1)16-18.
[37]余剑如,刘载生.长江上游的水土流失与河流泥沙[J].水土保持学报1988,2(1),1-15.
[38]王文浩.白龙江林区生态环境变化与对策建议[J].人民长江2008,39(13),76-78.
[40]张旭异,孙继成,魏国孝等.改进的马斯京根法在渭河洪水演算中的应用[J].人民黄河,2010,32(011)：36-38.
[41]吕世文,冯明一.马斯京根法在郑家屯洪水预报方案中的应用[J].吉林水利,2004,12：002.
[42]张晓艳,欧剑,李杰友.北江飞来峡～石角河道洪水演算[J].广东水利水电,2005,5：017.
[43]苏焕甲.汾河下游河道洪水预报[J].山西水利科技,1996,1.
[44]谢碧海.新疆阿勒泰山区河流糙率规律浅析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2007,18(3)：101-103.
[45]何建京.明渠非均匀流糙率系数及水力特性研究[D].河海大学,2003.
[46]叶守泽,水利水电专家.水文水利计算[M].中国水利水电出版社,2008.