工程项目施工阶段成本风险分析与对策研究
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摘要
工程项目施工是一个具有动态特征的系统工程,受项目所处环境干扰因素多,存在诸多的不确定性,具有很大的风险性。并且,与发达国家相比,我国对工程项目风险管理的风险意识、整体的风险管理水平还有很大差距。本文针对这种情况,在系统分析和全面总结国内外学者在这一领域研究成果的基础上,立足于承包商的角度,从理论和实践两个方面,对工程项目施工阶段影响成本的风险进行研究。
首先,界定了工程项目施工阶段成本风险和风险管理的定义。并在对比分析现有风险识别方法的基础上,结合工程实际,综合运用系统分解法、项目资料分析法、专家调查法及现场考察法等风险识别方法,对工程项目施工阶段成本风险进行全面、系统的识别。
其次,利用风险识别的结果,建立AHP方法的风险因素重要性排序结构模型和成本风险应对方案模型。采用问卷调查和数理统计法,进行工程项目施工阶段成本风险的估计与评价,分析得出影响成本的主要风险。
然后,在风险估计和评价的基础上,本文提出了狭义的风险规划概念。并利用风险估计和评价的结果,结合ABC分析法,进行风险规划。同时,依据风险管理目标和原则,提出风险处置方法和策略。
最后,利用案例分析法,结合具体的案例构建了基于模糊层次分析法的工程项目施工阶段成本风险因素重要性评价模型,进行成本风险评价,验证了模型的有效性。
Construction project is a systems engineering with dynamic character, there is cat-and-dag because of many nondeterminacies from multi interference factors in the environment of projects. Comparing with developed countries, there is less risk awareness about risk management of construction projects, also entire risk management expertise is far from the level in these countries. In such as case, this paper is focused on the study of the risk of various cost at the construction stage from the viewpoint of contractor, which touches both of the theory and practice under the basis of summarizing and analyzing the findings in this research area by the experts in China and outside China.
First of all, this paper limited the definition of cost risk at the phase of construction and risk management. Then it placed emphasis on meticulous and completely identification of cost risk at the phase of construction through Systematic Analysis, project materials' study, investigation by expertise and Survey at the spot during the construction, which is established at the basis of Contrastive analysis also considering the actual situation of construction projects.
Secondly,based on the finding of cost risk identification, this paper is featured with the model of structural importance's ordering and solution to cost risks under the method Of AHP. Its purpose is for the conclusion of main risks from cost factors through risk prophecy and valuation of cost risk at the phase of construction ,which is realized by questionnaires survey and mathematical statistics.
Then, monographer has put forward a narrow sense proposal of risk aversion at the basis of risk prophecy and valuation of cost risk, also the solution for cost risk through ABC analysis based on the finding of risk prophecy and valuation of cost risk.and then to propose the risk handling solution and the strategic data-planning methodology.
Finally, build up the importance-assessing model of cost risks at the construction stage, which is for the purpose of cost risks identification and valuating for inspection and verification to the valid of this model. It is through the fuzzy decision trees analysis in according to the study of idiographic actual cases.
首先,界定了工程项目施工阶段成本风险和风险管理的定义。并在对比分析现有风险识别方法的基础上,结合工程实际,综合运用系统分解法、项目资料分析法、专家调查法及现场考察法等风险识别方法,对工程项目施工阶段成本风险进行全面、系统的识别。
其次,利用风险识别的结果,建立AHP方法的风险因素重要性排序结构模型和成本风险应对方案模型。采用问卷调查和数理统计法,进行工程项目施工阶段成本风险的估计与评价,分析得出影响成本的主要风险。
然后,在风险估计和评价的基础上,本文提出了狭义的风险规划概念。并利用风险估计和评价的结果,结合ABC分析法,进行风险规划。同时,依据风险管理目标和原则,提出风险处置方法和策略。
最后,利用案例分析法,结合具体的案例构建了基于模糊层次分析法的工程项目施工阶段成本风险因素重要性评价模型,进行成本风险评价,验证了模型的有效性。
Construction project is a systems engineering with dynamic character, there is cat-and-dag because of many nondeterminacies from multi interference factors in the environment of projects. Comparing with developed countries, there is less risk awareness about risk management of construction projects, also entire risk management expertise is far from the level in these countries. In such as case, this paper is focused on the study of the risk of various cost at the construction stage from the viewpoint of contractor, which touches both of the theory and practice under the basis of summarizing and analyzing the findings in this research area by the experts in China and outside China.
First of all, this paper limited the definition of cost risk at the phase of construction and risk management. Then it placed emphasis on meticulous and completely identification of cost risk at the phase of construction through Systematic Analysis, project materials' study, investigation by expertise and Survey at the spot during the construction, which is established at the basis of Contrastive analysis also considering the actual situation of construction projects.
Secondly,based on the finding of cost risk identification, this paper is featured with the model of structural importance's ordering and solution to cost risks under the method Of AHP. Its purpose is for the conclusion of main risks from cost factors through risk prophecy and valuation of cost risk at the phase of construction ,which is realized by questionnaires survey and mathematical statistics.
Then, monographer has put forward a narrow sense proposal of risk aversion at the basis of risk prophecy and valuation of cost risk, also the solution for cost risk through ABC analysis based on the finding of risk prophecy and valuation of cost risk.and then to propose the risk handling solution and the strategic data-planning methodology.
Finally, build up the importance-assessing model of cost risks at the construction stage, which is for the purpose of cost risks identification and valuating for inspection and verification to the valid of this model. It is through the fuzzy decision trees analysis in according to the study of idiographic actual cases.
引文
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[43]王卓普.风险及其对策[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2005:141-160.
[44]Graham,Richard.Managing the project management process in Aerospace and Construction:a comparative approach[J].International Journal of Project Management Volume 17,1999(1):39-45.
[45]徐妥夫.工程项目风险辨识与评价方法研究[J].基建优化,2006,27(3):48-50.
[46]T.Williams.Risk-managemant infrastructures[J].int.J.Project Management,1993,11(1):5-10.
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[48]李海凌,宋吉荣.层次分析法在工程项目风险评价中的应用[J].经营管理,2004,24(1):87-88.
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[2]金维兴,陆歆弘,尚梅等.21世纪中国建筑业管理理论与实践[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2006:1-15.
[3]国家统计局固定资产投资统计司.2005中国建筑业统计年鉴[M].北京:国家统计局,2005:2-25.
[4]国家统计局固定资产投资统计司.2006中国建筑业统计年鉴[M].北京:国家统计局,2006:1-33.
[5]刘睿.国际大型土木工程承包项目投标风险定量评估[D].天津:天津大学,2003:3-6,30-33.
[6]王宽.建筑工程项目风险理论及案例研究[D].北京:对外经济贸易大学,2005:3-8.
[7]刘力.国际工程项目风险识别及评价方法研究[D].长沙:中南大学,2006:2-9,61-75.
[8]阮涛.房地产投资项目风险评价[D].武汉:武汉理工大学,2002:1-6.
[9]汪忠,黄瑞华.国外风险管理研究的理论、方法及进展[J].外国经济与管理,2005,27(2):25-29.
[10]William R.Duncan.A guide to the project management body of knowledge[M].Pennsylvania:Project Management Institute,1987:23-29.
[11]李晓宇.工程项目风险评价体系研究[D].大连:大连理工大学,2003:2-3,18-33.
[12]李海凌.工程项目风险管理[D].成都:西南交通大学,2004:4-8,28-41.
[13]C.Arthur Williams,Michael L.Smith,Peter C.Young.Risk Management and Insurance[M].NewYork:McGraw-Hill,Inc 1995:65-70.
[14]JamesS.Tdeschmann,Sandra G.Gustavson,Robert E.Hoyt.Risk management & insurance[M].USA:South-Western College Pub,2001:1-12.
[15]郭仲伟.风险分析与决策[M].北京:机械工业出版社,1987:15-21.
[16]R.Gareis.Handbook of Management by Projects[J].MANZ,Vienna,1990:16.
[17]符志民.航天项目风险管理[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2005:1-15,40-49.
[18]William R.Duncan.A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge[M].Pennsylvania:Project Management Institute,Inc.2000:30-35.
[19]刘华.大型工程项目成本风险管理研究[D].湖南:中南林学院,2005:13-25,71-82.
[20]Williams C A,Heine R M.Risk management and Insurance[M].New York:Mc Graw-Hill,1985:56-63.
[21]Hayes,R.W.Rerry.J.G.Thompson,P.A.andwillmr,G.Risk Management in Engineering Construction Implications for Project Managements[M].London:Homas Telford Ltd,1986:16.
[22]Tummala,V.M.Rao,Nkasu,M.M.Asystematic approach to risk management[J].Journal of Mathematical Modelling and Scientific Computing,1994:174-184.
[23]辛若朋.码头工程项目承包商风险管理研究[D].长沙:长沙理工大学,2006:2-3,31-34.
[24]Carr,V;Tah,J.H.M.A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment and analysis[J].Construction project risk management system Advances in Engineering software volume,2001,32(10-11):21-26.
[25]Kartam,Nabil A,Kartam,Saied.A Risk and its management in the Kuwaiti Construction industry:a contractors[J].perspective International Journal of Project Management Volurne,2001,19(6):32-41.
[26]卢有杰.项目风险管理[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2004:8-19,47.
[27]雷胜强.国际工程风险管理与保险[M].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,1996:53-88.
[28]陈伟珂,黄艳敏.工程风险与工程保险[M].天津:天津大学出版社,2005:48-80.
[29]吴之明.国际工程风险对策[J].建筑,2003(9):10-13.
[30]谢媛芳,申伟,孟玲.工程成本风险的模糊层次分析[J].西安科技学院学报,2004,24(2):181-182.
[31]赵世强.房地产开发风险管理[M].北京:中国建材工业出版社,2003:20,297-310.
[32]肖维品.工程建设项目投资风险分析的实用方法[J].重庆建筑大学学报,1997(6):43-45.
[33]刘晓君,孟凡文.模糊层次分析法在房地产投资风险评价中的应用[J].西安建筑科技大学学报,2005,37(1):135-137.
[34]张飞涟,周继祖,余浩军.浅议施工项目管理的风险与对策[J].基建优化,1999,20(1):42-45.
[35]田元福,李慧民.工程项目施工阶段的风险评估研究[J].兰州交通大学学报,2004(1):21-22.
[36]方东平,李铭恩.项目承包风险评价[J].建筑经济,2002(238):10-12
[37]刘迎春.建筑企业进行工程项目风险管理的研究[D].北京:对外经济贸易大学,2002:18-42.
[38]赵振宇,刘伊生,杨华春.故障树法引入工程项目风险管理研究[J].现代电力,2002(2):95-99.
[39]Pransanta D.Tabucanon M T,Ogunlans S 0.Planning for Project Control through Risk Analysis:A Petroleum Pipeline-Laying Project[J].Int.Journal of Project Management.1994,12(1):22-33.
[40]Robert N.Charette.Software Engineering Risk Analysis and Management[M].New York:McGraw-Hill Book Company,1989:89-95.
[41]Louis Anthony Cox.Risk Analysis Foundations Models and Methods[J].Kluwer Academic Publishers,2002(3):78-90.
[42]J.Yang and D.DU,A method of dynamic risk management in project[M].XI'an:the Age of project Management-china and the word,northwestern poly technical University Press,1995:82-90.
[43]王卓普.风险及其对策[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2005:141-160.
[44]Graham,Richard.Managing the project management process in Aerospace and Construction:a comparative approach[J].International Journal of Project Management Volume 17,1999(1):39-45.
[45]徐妥夫.工程项目风险辨识与评价方法研究[J].基建优化,2006,27(3):48-50.
[46]T.Williams.Risk-managemant infrastructures[J].int.J.Project Management,1993,11(1):5-10.
[47]J.Yang and D.Du.Application of fuzzy theory to project risk management[J].Proceedingsof the International Symposium of Industrial Management,International Academy Press,1996(3):36-39.
[48]李海凌,宋吉荣.层次分析法在工程项目风险评价中的应用[J].经营管理,2004,24(1):87-88.
[49]沈建明.项目风险管理[M].北京:机械工业出版社,2006:102-109.
[50]李晓宇,张明玉,张凯.工程项目风险评价体系研究[J].科技进步与对策,2004(6):43-45.
[51]John M Gleason.Fuzzy set computational processes in risk analysis[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management,1991,38(2):177-178.
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