稻谷价格形成机制研究
摘要
稻谷是我国三大粮食作物之首,研究其价格形成机制对研究我国粮食问题有非常重要的意义。稻谷的价格形成机制十分复杂,从建国以来历经了“自由市场定价——政府定价——双轨制定价——价格市场化”的定价体制改革过程,但总体来说不是很成功。国家于2004年全面放开粮食购销市场,实行多渠道经营,稻谷收购主体明显增加,竞争激烈；另外,近几年物价指数快速上升,导致稻谷价格波动较大,稻谷种植户和现货企业面临的市场风险日益增加。2009年4月郑商所推出了早籼稻期货合约,旨在稳定稻谷现货市场。因此有必要研究并把握稻谷的价格形成机制,为完善我国稻谷价格的市场化改革提供政策建议。
本文以早籼稻价格形成机制为例分析稻谷的价格形成机制,对早籼稻价格的研究采取定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法。首先,简要介绍了国内的稻谷市场现状以及稻谷价格体制的演变过程；其次,定性分析了稻谷价格的形成机制；再次,分析早籼稻期货的市场的有效性,检验期货价格对现货价格是否有影响,并运用回归分析法对早籼稻市场价格的其他主要影响因素进行检验,找出影响我国早籼稻价格的主要因素；最后,在以上分析基础上提出政策建议。
通过研究,本文主要得出以下结论：稻谷价格的稳定对社会经济的稳定发展发挥着重要作用,稻谷自身的不稳定性特点与其关系社会安全的功能经常相矛盾,导致稻谷价格市场化进程总是因为受到国家的宏观调控而终结；早籼稻期货与现货价格之间存在一个协整关系,期货市场在短期内具有价格发现功能,并达到了弱式有效；早籼稻价格的主要影响因素是产量、物价指数和期货价格；早籼稻期货的上市,可以为种植户和现货企业提供一个有效的风险规避方式,也会使稻谷的价格形成机制更加完善。
根据分析结果,本文提供以下政策建议：建立完善的稻谷市场体系；加强对稻谷期货市场的建设；积极培育稻谷产业的龙头企业；增加对稻谷种植产业的投入；完善稻谷相关市场的法律法规。
Paddy is one of the three important grain corps, so the study of its pricing mechanism makes great sense to the study of food problem. The long-term's reform of China's paddy pricing mechanism is unsuccessful totally for the reason of it is rather complex. The reform process is as followings:free market prices system-government prices system-double-track prices system-towards market-oriented prices system.
In 2004, the government freed grain markets in purchases and sales and carried the policy of multi-channel operation. As a result, there are more and more proper buyers, so the competition in this field is becoming more and more serious. In addition, China's CPI index in recent years rises fast. All these make the paddy prices fluctuated violently and increase the risk of the person who plant and operate paddy day by day.
Our country pushed "Early Rice Futures" in Apr 20th 2009 in the hope of stabilizing its price. So, it is necessary to study and hold the paddy pricing mechanism as to offer some helpful suggestions in stabilizing the domestic paddy market and protecting the paddy participants'interests.
I analyze the paddy pricing mechanism with qualitative and quantitative analysis of a combination method in this paper. In the first place, I brief introduce the paddy spot market and the evolution process of its pricing mechanism. In the second place, I make a qualitative analysis about its pricing mechanism and find out the main factors affected the price by regression analysis. In the third place, I take early rice as an example to make an empirical analysis of pricing mechanism. I test whether the futures market is effective and find out the key factors affected the price of early rice by regression analysis. At last, I offer some policy proposals basing on the previous study.
By the previous study I make the following conclusions:The steady paddy price plays an important role in stabilizing the economic society's steady development. However, its own instability character and its function to maintain social's security is always a contradiction. This is the reason that government's macro-interference always stops the paddy price towards market-oriented price all the time. By the effectiveness analysis, I find that there has a co-integration between futures and spot market, and the futures market is weak form efficient. The key influence factor is its yield, price index and futures prices. The list of early rice futures can provide an effective means to avoid risk for paddy participants and also perfect the pricing mechanism.
By the analysis result, I offer the following policy proposals:set up a complete paddy market system, cultivate the paddy champion enterprise to play exemplary and leading role, concentrate on futures market's improvement, increase input in paddy plantation industries, and constantly perfect the construction of law in paddy related market.
本文以早籼稻价格形成机制为例分析稻谷的价格形成机制,对早籼稻价格的研究采取定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法。首先,简要介绍了国内的稻谷市场现状以及稻谷价格体制的演变过程；其次,定性分析了稻谷价格的形成机制；再次,分析早籼稻期货的市场的有效性,检验期货价格对现货价格是否有影响,并运用回归分析法对早籼稻市场价格的其他主要影响因素进行检验,找出影响我国早籼稻价格的主要因素；最后,在以上分析基础上提出政策建议。
通过研究,本文主要得出以下结论：稻谷价格的稳定对社会经济的稳定发展发挥着重要作用,稻谷自身的不稳定性特点与其关系社会安全的功能经常相矛盾,导致稻谷价格市场化进程总是因为受到国家的宏观调控而终结；早籼稻期货与现货价格之间存在一个协整关系,期货市场在短期内具有价格发现功能,并达到了弱式有效；早籼稻价格的主要影响因素是产量、物价指数和期货价格；早籼稻期货的上市,可以为种植户和现货企业提供一个有效的风险规避方式,也会使稻谷的价格形成机制更加完善。
根据分析结果,本文提供以下政策建议：建立完善的稻谷市场体系；加强对稻谷期货市场的建设；积极培育稻谷产业的龙头企业；增加对稻谷种植产业的投入；完善稻谷相关市场的法律法规。
Paddy is one of the three important grain corps, so the study of its pricing mechanism makes great sense to the study of food problem. The long-term's reform of China's paddy pricing mechanism is unsuccessful totally for the reason of it is rather complex. The reform process is as followings:free market prices system-government prices system-double-track prices system-towards market-oriented prices system.
In 2004, the government freed grain markets in purchases and sales and carried the policy of multi-channel operation. As a result, there are more and more proper buyers, so the competition in this field is becoming more and more serious. In addition, China's CPI index in recent years rises fast. All these make the paddy prices fluctuated violently and increase the risk of the person who plant and operate paddy day by day.
Our country pushed "Early Rice Futures" in Apr 20th 2009 in the hope of stabilizing its price. So, it is necessary to study and hold the paddy pricing mechanism as to offer some helpful suggestions in stabilizing the domestic paddy market and protecting the paddy participants'interests.
I analyze the paddy pricing mechanism with qualitative and quantitative analysis of a combination method in this paper. In the first place, I brief introduce the paddy spot market and the evolution process of its pricing mechanism. In the second place, I make a qualitative analysis about its pricing mechanism and find out the main factors affected the price by regression analysis. In the third place, I take early rice as an example to make an empirical analysis of pricing mechanism. I test whether the futures market is effective and find out the key factors affected the price of early rice by regression analysis. At last, I offer some policy proposals basing on the previous study.
By the previous study I make the following conclusions:The steady paddy price plays an important role in stabilizing the economic society's steady development. However, its own instability character and its function to maintain social's security is always a contradiction. This is the reason that government's macro-interference always stops the paddy price towards market-oriented price all the time. By the effectiveness analysis, I find that there has a co-integration between futures and spot market, and the futures market is weak form efficient. The key influence factor is its yield, price index and futures prices. The list of early rice futures can provide an effective means to avoid risk for paddy participants and also perfect the pricing mechanism.
By the analysis result, I offer the following policy proposals:set up a complete paddy market system, cultivate the paddy champion enterprise to play exemplary and leading role, concentrate on futures market's improvement, increase input in paddy plantation industries, and constantly perfect the construction of law in paddy related market.
引文
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[2]王争艳,潘元庆,祝桂兰等.影响粮食生产因素的贡献率分析及政策建议[J].安徽农业科学,2008,36：1690-1692
[3]郑炎成.提高我国农户农业投资预期的经济学分析[J].农村经济,2006,9：69-72
[4]吴天锡.粮食安全的新概念和新要求[J].世界农业,2001,6：12-15
[5]任芳.早籼稻期货将促成”中国价格”[J].农产品市场周刊,2009,16：9-11
[6]康敏,乔娟.中国大豆期货市场运行特点及其影响因素[J].调研世界,2005,1：20-24
[7]道格拉斯.C.诺思.经济史中的结构与变迁[M].上海：上海三联书店,1994：226-228
[8]隆国强.中美粮食价格形成机制与波动机制的比较研究[D].北京：北京大学,1998
[9]隆国强.大国开放中的粮食流通[M].北京：中国发展出版社,1999：234-236
[10]Gustav Akerman. The Cobweb Theorem:A Reconsideration[J]. The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1957,71(1):151-160
[11]Ezekiel, Mordecai. The cobweb theorem[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,1938,52:255-280
[12]Boserup Ester. The Conditions of Agricultural Growth:The Economics of Agrarian Change under Population Pressure[M]. London:George Allen& Unwin Ltd,1965:123-125
[13]Joachim von Braun. Food and financial crises:Implications for agriculture and the poor[M]. Washington:International Food Policy Research Institute,2008:65-68
[14]柯炳生,唐仁健.农产品价格上涨、通货膨胀与宏观调控[J].中国农村经济,1995,7：32-34
[15]熊丽英,史月兰.中国粮食安全的系统思考[J].学术论坛,1999,6：12-15
[16]薛宇峰.中国粮食生产区域分化和空间分布的经济学分析[J].上海财经大学学报,2006,6：3-10
[17]张晓涛.中国粮食政策演变的制度经济学分析[J].制度体制改革,2005,1：24-28
[18]柯炳生.粮食流通体制改革与市场体系建设[J].中国农村经济,1998,12：12-14
[19]孙杭生,顾焕章.我国粮食收购保护价政策及定价机制研究[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2002,12：11-17
[20]鲁靖.中国粮食市场运行与政府宏观调控政策耦合研究[D].武汉：华中科技大学,2003
[21]陶昌盛.中国粮食定价机制研究[D].上海：复旦大学,2004
[22]仰炬,王新奎,耿洪洲.我国粮食市场政府管制有效性：基于小麦的实证研究[J].经济研究,2008,8：42-52
[23]严文明.稻作农业的起源与小鲁里稻谷[J].农业考古,2003,3：6-10
[24]胡效月,安成邦.中国农业起源研究综述[J].安徽农业科学,2007,35：8008-8010
[25]郑州商品期货交易所.稻谷现货研究[M].郑州商品期货交易所,2008：2-10
[26]中华人民共和国商业部储运局检验处.GB1350-2009中华人民共和国国家标准：稻谷.北京,中华人民共和国商业部,2009
[27]周裔彬.浅析提高稻谷加工出率的新途径[J].粮食与饲料工业,1999,5：13-19
[28]赖睦.我国粮食流通体制50年的历史演变[J].湖北财税(理论版),1999,10：26-28
[29]丁声俊.中国粮食流通体制改革指导全书[M].北京：中国大地出版社,1998：145-149
[30]武力,肖翔.略论新中国60年价格形成机制演变[J].财贸经济,2009,9：1-16
[31]冷崇总.建国以来我国粮食价格形成机制演变[J].价格与市场,2009,11：4-6
[32]尚长风.三年经济困难时期的紧急就在措施[J].当代中国史研究,2009,10：5 1-57
[33]国家统计局贸易物价统计司.中国贸易物价统计资料1952-1983[M].中国统计出版社,1984：5-35
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