论宁波港集装箱运输发展
摘要
集装箱吞吐量预测是制定港口发展战略和规划的基础。九十年代以来，集装箱运输发展速度远远出乎人们的预料，以致过去很多预测普遍低于实际值许多。就整体而言，目前国内集装箱运输相对西方国家发展程度，尚处于发展期，集装箱运输的很多相关因素在不断变化，使得各港随着内外条件的变化存在着很大变数。对港口集装箱吞吐量预测，尤其是对远期作出精确预测，不能指望有一种固定有效的数学模型。笔者认为，数学模型在帮助人们作出预测的同时也容易束缚人们对事物的想象。因此在对港口集装箱进行预测前，对港口集装箱运输的内外环境现状和发展趋势的把握，显得尤为重要。本文以宁波港为研究对象，通过对港口集装箱运输内外环境分析，阐述该港集装箱运输的发展前景，在此定性基础上再进行集装箱吞吐量预测，并以此作为制定港口发展战略的依据。
论文全文包括引言和六章内容。引言部分简要介绍宁波港集装箱运输发展概况，本论文的研究框架。第一章从宁波港自身发展需要，宁波市经济发展需要，以及中国建设上海国际航运中心、参与国际集装箱运输竞争需要，阐述宁波港发展集装箱运输的必要性。第二章从宁波港口自然条件、码头规模、口岸环境、航线及吞吐量等集装箱运输现状，分析宁波港集装箱运输发展特点以及存在的主要问题。第三章通过对世界集装箱运输格局变化趋势、集装箱船舶及港口发展趋势、东北亚集装箱港口竞争、中国加入WTO和上海国际航运中心建设模式演变等外部环境变化对宁波港集装箱运输影响的分析，阐述宁波港集装箱运输面临的发展机遇和挑战。第四章通过对宁波港经济腹地的经济发展状况、宁波港未来二十年集疏运网络发展规划的分析，勾画出宁波港未来二十年集装箱运输的发展前景，并由此对宁波港经济腹地集装箱生成量和港口集装箱吞吐量进行简单预测。第五章是在前几章研究基础上，通过对集装箱运输关键因素的再认识，确定发展宁波港集装箱运输的指导思想、发展目标，提出实现战略目标的步骤、策略和建议措施。最后一章是对全文内容的归纳和总结。
笔者希望本文对研究我国港口集装箱运输发展战略，以及对制定宁波港集装箱运输发展规划，能有一点参考价值。
Forecast to throughput of container is the basis of programming developing stratagem of a port. Since 1990's, the development of container transportation was so fast that it is often far beyond our expectation. Therefore, forecast to development of container transportation often lag behind the actual volume. As a unitary system, container transportation in China is in a developing stage now, compared with developed western country. Furthermore, a lot of concerned factors are affecting container transportation, so that all Chinese port appeared variety performance, under diversification of circumstance. Therefore, we can not always count on a kind of steadfast, successive maths model to settle the problem we countered in pursuing prediction to throughput of container, especially on a long term. I considered when maths model was employed in assisting to prediction, human's imagination was restricted at the same time. For this reason, when we predict the container throughput volume of a port, taking special consideration of circumstance status and developing current of container transportation, may be useful. My article selected port of Ningbo as object, through analysis of inner and outer circumstance of container transportation, to expound the developing prospect of container transportation of Ningbo t and hereby carry out my prediction to container throughput volume of Ningbo, as a gist of port development plan.
The whole paper including introduction and six chapters. The introduction present general situation of container transportation in Ningbo, and the frame of whole paper. Chapter one centered on the necessity of developing container transportation in Ningbo by expatiating self development demand of Ningbo Port, economical development demand of Ningbo and demand of developing Ningbo Port into the container hub of Shanghai International Shipping Center to take part in the fierce competition in world container transportation market. Chapter two analyze characteristic of developing container transportation in Ningbo and existing problems in Ningbo through explaining Ningbo's natural conditions, scale of wharf, port circumstance, sea routes, throughput and other status of Ningbo. Chapter three expound the opportunity and challenge in developing container transportation of Ningbo, by spreading out variant outer circumstance, i.e.
developing trend of world container transportation pattern, developing trend of container ship & port, competition situation in east Asia, China joining in WTO and pattern evolvement of building Shanghai International Shipping Center. Chapter four draw the outline of container transportation development of Ningbo in the coming twenty years and predict container hinterland generating quantity and container throughput of port of Ningbo, by analyzing economical developing status of hinterland of Ningbo, transportation network programming of Ningbo in the future. Chapter five ascertain guideline, developing aim, implement process to the strategic goal and advice of container transportation development in Ningbo based on the above chapters and understanding of the key factor of container transportation. The last chapter was a conclusion of the content of the whole paper.
The purpose of the paper is a attempt of researching container transportation development strategy of Chinese port, and the author also desire for the paper could take a role of consultant in programming the outline of container transportation development of port in Ningbo.
论文全文包括引言和六章内容。引言部分简要介绍宁波港集装箱运输发展概况，本论文的研究框架。第一章从宁波港自身发展需要，宁波市经济发展需要，以及中国建设上海国际航运中心、参与国际集装箱运输竞争需要，阐述宁波港发展集装箱运输的必要性。第二章从宁波港口自然条件、码头规模、口岸环境、航线及吞吐量等集装箱运输现状，分析宁波港集装箱运输发展特点以及存在的主要问题。第三章通过对世界集装箱运输格局变化趋势、集装箱船舶及港口发展趋势、东北亚集装箱港口竞争、中国加入WTO和上海国际航运中心建设模式演变等外部环境变化对宁波港集装箱运输影响的分析，阐述宁波港集装箱运输面临的发展机遇和挑战。第四章通过对宁波港经济腹地的经济发展状况、宁波港未来二十年集疏运网络发展规划的分析，勾画出宁波港未来二十年集装箱运输的发展前景，并由此对宁波港经济腹地集装箱生成量和港口集装箱吞吐量进行简单预测。第五章是在前几章研究基础上，通过对集装箱运输关键因素的再认识，确定发展宁波港集装箱运输的指导思想、发展目标，提出实现战略目标的步骤、策略和建议措施。最后一章是对全文内容的归纳和总结。
笔者希望本文对研究我国港口集装箱运输发展战略，以及对制定宁波港集装箱运输发展规划，能有一点参考价值。
Forecast to throughput of container is the basis of programming developing stratagem of a port. Since 1990's, the development of container transportation was so fast that it is often far beyond our expectation. Therefore, forecast to development of container transportation often lag behind the actual volume. As a unitary system, container transportation in China is in a developing stage now, compared with developed western country. Furthermore, a lot of concerned factors are affecting container transportation, so that all Chinese port appeared variety performance, under diversification of circumstance. Therefore, we can not always count on a kind of steadfast, successive maths model to settle the problem we countered in pursuing prediction to throughput of container, especially on a long term. I considered when maths model was employed in assisting to prediction, human's imagination was restricted at the same time. For this reason, when we predict the container throughput volume of a port, taking special consideration of circumstance status and developing current of container transportation, may be useful. My article selected port of Ningbo as object, through analysis of inner and outer circumstance of container transportation, to expound the developing prospect of container transportation of Ningbo t and hereby carry out my prediction to container throughput volume of Ningbo, as a gist of port development plan.
The whole paper including introduction and six chapters. The introduction present general situation of container transportation in Ningbo, and the frame of whole paper. Chapter one centered on the necessity of developing container transportation in Ningbo by expatiating self development demand of Ningbo Port, economical development demand of Ningbo and demand of developing Ningbo Port into the container hub of Shanghai International Shipping Center to take part in the fierce competition in world container transportation market. Chapter two analyze characteristic of developing container transportation in Ningbo and existing problems in Ningbo through explaining Ningbo's natural conditions, scale of wharf, port circumstance, sea routes, throughput and other status of Ningbo. Chapter three expound the opportunity and challenge in developing container transportation of Ningbo, by spreading out variant outer circumstance, i.e.
developing trend of world container transportation pattern, developing trend of container ship & port, competition situation in east Asia, China joining in WTO and pattern evolvement of building Shanghai International Shipping Center. Chapter four draw the outline of container transportation development of Ningbo in the coming twenty years and predict container hinterland generating quantity and container throughput of port of Ningbo, by analyzing economical developing status of hinterland of Ningbo, transportation network programming of Ningbo in the future. Chapter five ascertain guideline, developing aim, implement process to the strategic goal and advice of container transportation development in Ningbo based on the above chapters and understanding of the key factor of container transportation. The last chapter was a conclusion of the content of the whole paper.
The purpose of the paper is a attempt of researching container transportation development strategy of Chinese port, and the author also desire for the paper could take a role of consultant in programming the outline of container transportation development of port in Ningbo.
引文
1．宗蓓华．港口战略管理．人民交通出版社．1994/8
2．施欣．交通运输系统决策理论方法与应用．兰州大学出版社．1995/12
3．邹俊善．现代港口经济学．人民交通出版社．1997/8
4．王海平．港口发展研究．天津科学技术出版社．1998/1
5．真虹．集装箱运输学．大连海事大学出版社 1999/7
6．中华人民共和国交通部水运司．中国对外开放港口．人民交通出版社．2000/9
7．交通部科学研究所．上海组合港发展战略及实施对策研究．1999．7．
8．宁波市交通委员会、上海交通大学．长江中下游远洋集装箱江海联运到宁波北仑港中转的策略和实施方案研究．1998/12
9．宁波市交通委员会，上海海运学院．宁波市综合运输网规划(1998——2020年)．1999/8
10．宁波港务局．2000年浙江省国际集装箱货源调查报告．2000/6
11．宁波市港口规划建设管理委员会办公室．2000年浙江省国际集装箱生成量及其流向调查报告．2000/3
12．交通部水运司、上海航运交易所．2001年水运货源调查预测报告．2001/1
13．彭红．港口集装箱吞吐量预测方法研究．上海海运学院硕士学位论文．1996/12
14．裴淑红．上海国际航运中心国际集装箱生成量的研究．上海海运学院硕士学位论文．1999/12
15．王盛德，潘玉方．宁波港集装箱运输的发展与前景．集装箱化．1993(3)
16．姚伟福．上海及其南北两翼集装箱运输发展潜力初析．上海海运学院学报．1997(3)
17．任美锷、杨保国．当前我国港口发展条件分析——兼论上海国际航运中心．中国学报．1998/5(3)
18．吴敏珍．宁波港集装箱运输对策．港口科技动态．1998(9)
19．臧叔兰．充分利用宁波北仑港深水优势，加快上海国际航运中心建设．水运管理．1999(9)
20．王合生、李昌锋．充分利用现有港口设施尽快建成上海国际航运中心．世界科技研究与发展．1999年21卷(3)
21．顾家骏．集装箱港口的外移趋势分析．中国港口．2000(1)
22．宗蓓华．面临进入WTO的我国集装箱运输业．中国港口．2000(1)
23．王信念．宁波港在长江三角洲港口集装箱运输中的优势．中国港口．2000(3)
24．寿建敏．如何提高上海港集装箱码头通过能力．中国水运．2000(4)
25．杨成新．深圳港集装箱吞吐量快速增长成因探略．中国水运．2000(6)
26．王建设，姜杏娟．我国加入WTO对港口业的影响和对策．中国港口．2000(11)
27．茅伯科．中国大陆合资建设、经营集装箱码头的实践和前景．中国港口．2000(11)
28．张杨．集装箱船舶大型化过程中港口的限制因素．航运交易公报．2000(25)
29．候荣华．发展长江三角洲地区集装箱运输．中国水运．2000(4)
30．李隆华．论选址决策中“尊重自然”的意义——长江三角洲集装箱枢纽港的方法论．浙江海洋学院学报(人文科学版)．2000(4)
31．陈涌．21世纪宁波口岸集装箱运输事业的发展和思考．综合运输．2000(5)
32．童孟达．杭州湾大通道建设对宁波港国际集装箱运输的影响．宁波经济2000．(12)
33．赵镜涵．当前国际集装箱运输态势．航运交易公报．2000(34)
34．赵刚．信息技术对港口发展的影响．中国港口．2001(1)
35．杨建勇．经济全球化与港口发展．中国港口．2001(2)
36．刘峥．面对WTO，如何构筑港口人才高地．中国港口．2001(3)
37．宋炳良．港口内陆空间通达性与国际航运中心建设．水运管理．2001(4)
38．尧乐．2015年前的国际集装箱港口市场．海运情报．2001(8)
39．曾照宝，杨赞．集装箱港口规模经济问题分析．http://www.56net.com 2001/7
40．中国对外经济贸易年鉴编辑委员会．中国对外经济贸易年鉴(1991～2001年)．中国对外贸易出版社．
41．中国统计年鉴编委会．中国统计年鉴(1991～2001年)．中国统计出版社
42. Hans Ludwig Beth. The Importance of Value Added Services in Port Marketing. Ports And Harbors. January-February 2000
43. Jose Paul. Ports And Harbors--A GLOBAL SCANARIO. Ports And Harbors. January-February 2000
44. Itsuro Watanabe. The Fifth Generation of Containerisation: A Mixed Outlook. Ports And Harbors. April 2000
45. John Raven. The Kyoto Convention—A New Port-Customs Relationship. Ports And Harbors. September 2000
46．航运商务网(www. 21shipping. com)
47．物流网(www. 56net. com)
48．海贸网(www. seatrade. com. cn)
49．国家统计局网站(www. stats. gov. cn)
50．人民日报网站(www. peopledaily. com. cn)
2．施欣．交通运输系统决策理论方法与应用．兰州大学出版社．1995/12
3．邹俊善．现代港口经济学．人民交通出版社．1997/8
4．王海平．港口发展研究．天津科学技术出版社．1998/1
5．真虹．集装箱运输学．大连海事大学出版社 1999/7
6．中华人民共和国交通部水运司．中国对外开放港口．人民交通出版社．2000/9
7．交通部科学研究所．上海组合港发展战略及实施对策研究．1999．7．
8．宁波市交通委员会、上海交通大学．长江中下游远洋集装箱江海联运到宁波北仑港中转的策略和实施方案研究．1998/12
9．宁波市交通委员会，上海海运学院．宁波市综合运输网规划(1998——2020年)．1999/8
10．宁波港务局．2000年浙江省国际集装箱货源调查报告．2000/6
11．宁波市港口规划建设管理委员会办公室．2000年浙江省国际集装箱生成量及其流向调查报告．2000/3
12．交通部水运司、上海航运交易所．2001年水运货源调查预测报告．2001/1
13．彭红．港口集装箱吞吐量预测方法研究．上海海运学院硕士学位论文．1996/12
14．裴淑红．上海国际航运中心国际集装箱生成量的研究．上海海运学院硕士学位论文．1999/12
15．王盛德，潘玉方．宁波港集装箱运输的发展与前景．集装箱化．1993(3)
16．姚伟福．上海及其南北两翼集装箱运输发展潜力初析．上海海运学院学报．1997(3)
17．任美锷、杨保国．当前我国港口发展条件分析——兼论上海国际航运中心．中国学报．1998/5(3)
18．吴敏珍．宁波港集装箱运输对策．港口科技动态．1998(9)
19．臧叔兰．充分利用宁波北仑港深水优势，加快上海国际航运中心建设．水运管理．1999(9)
20．王合生、李昌锋．充分利用现有港口设施尽快建成上海国际航运中心．世界科技研究与发展．1999年21卷(3)
21．顾家骏．集装箱港口的外移趋势分析．中国港口．2000(1)
22．宗蓓华．面临进入WTO的我国集装箱运输业．中国港口．2000(1)
23．王信念．宁波港在长江三角洲港口集装箱运输中的优势．中国港口．2000(3)
24．寿建敏．如何提高上海港集装箱码头通过能力．中国水运．2000(4)
25．杨成新．深圳港集装箱吞吐量快速增长成因探略．中国水运．2000(6)
26．王建设，姜杏娟．我国加入WTO对港口业的影响和对策．中国港口．2000(11)
27．茅伯科．中国大陆合资建设、经营集装箱码头的实践和前景．中国港口．2000(11)
28．张杨．集装箱船舶大型化过程中港口的限制因素．航运交易公报．2000(25)
29．候荣华．发展长江三角洲地区集装箱运输．中国水运．2000(4)
30．李隆华．论选址决策中“尊重自然”的意义——长江三角洲集装箱枢纽港的方法论．浙江海洋学院学报(人文科学版)．2000(4)
31．陈涌．21世纪宁波口岸集装箱运输事业的发展和思考．综合运输．2000(5)
32．童孟达．杭州湾大通道建设对宁波港国际集装箱运输的影响．宁波经济2000．(12)
33．赵镜涵．当前国际集装箱运输态势．航运交易公报．2000(34)
34．赵刚．信息技术对港口发展的影响．中国港口．2001(1)
35．杨建勇．经济全球化与港口发展．中国港口．2001(2)
36．刘峥．面对WTO，如何构筑港口人才高地．中国港口．2001(3)
37．宋炳良．港口内陆空间通达性与国际航运中心建设．水运管理．2001(4)
38．尧乐．2015年前的国际集装箱港口市场．海运情报．2001(8)
39．曾照宝，杨赞．集装箱港口规模经济问题分析．http://www.56net.com 2001/7
40．中国对外经济贸易年鉴编辑委员会．中国对外经济贸易年鉴(1991～2001年)．中国对外贸易出版社．
41．中国统计年鉴编委会．中国统计年鉴(1991～2001年)．中国统计出版社
42. Hans Ludwig Beth. The Importance of Value Added Services in Port Marketing. Ports And Harbors. January-February 2000
43. Jose Paul. Ports And Harbors--A GLOBAL SCANARIO. Ports And Harbors. January-February 2000
44. Itsuro Watanabe. The Fifth Generation of Containerisation: A Mixed Outlook. Ports And Harbors. April 2000
45. John Raven. The Kyoto Convention—A New Port-Customs Relationship. Ports And Harbors. September 2000
46．航运商务网(www. 21shipping. com)
47．物流网(www. 56net. com)
48．海贸网(www. seatrade. com. cn)
49．国家统计局网站(www. stats. gov. cn)
50．人民日报网站(www. peopledaily. com. cn)