广州港
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摘要
本案例以全国几座大港口吞吐量排序的变化为背景，引出了广州港跨上亿吨大港，成为全国第二大港之后，港口吞吐量增长幅度相对减缓，面临被宁波港等大港超越困惑。国家交通部某官员对广州港的悲观论调，增加了广州港人的危机感。为寻求对策，H先生主持召开了广州港生存与发展专题会。
与会者对广州港的发展前景与目前困难的看法各不相同。第一种意见认为：河港衰落，海港兴起是普遍规律，主张认命和退出竞争；第二种意见认为：广州港已取得骄人业绩，所面临的问题是方式方法问题，不是本质问题，只须不断改良便能维持广州港的繁荣；第三种意见认为：广州港既面临机遇，又面临挑战；机遇是珠三角经济的高速发展为广州港带来了大量货源；挑战来自周边港口竞争广州港本身生产能力的相对不足。港口面临的主要矛盾是什么?对此公说婆说，各执一理。专题会未形成一致性结论。
案例分析围绕港口生产发展速度下降的原因展开调查，并应用 SPSS11.0统计软件包，对广州港货源和生产能力情况进行相关分析、曲线拟合分析和假设检验，在5％置信度上得出“广州港货源充足但港口生产能力不足”的结论。这一结论，既解开了广州港人的困惑，又为广州港消除发展瓶颈提供依据。
本案例所涉及的港口发展问题，虽然发生在广州港，但这个问题带有普遍性，对全国其他港口有借鉴作用。案例分析所采用的有关统计方法，也具有普遍性，可供其他港口分析诊断问题参考。其中，“港口货源与港口腹地GDP高度正相关”这一具有普遍意义的统计结论，为如何确定特定港口的设计规模，提高港口规划的前瞻性，提供了一个重要的参照系。
As a large port of 100,000,000 tons in quantity of inpor/export cargo, the second-large port in China ,Guangzhou port was overtaken by Ningbo port in 2001.What's the reason? Why Guangzhou port railed in harbour competition? It became the great bewilderment raced by Guangzhou port. To find the way out, Mr. H hosted a seminar with topic of Guangzhou Port's Survival and Development
Attendants expressed different opinions on Guangzhou Port's future and present difficulties. Opinion A, It's a common rule that river ports goes downhill and the sea ports gets upsurge. Therefore, it's better for Guangzhou Port to stay away from the competition. Opinion B, Guangzhou Port has made some achievements. The difficulties it faces now are mainly about the management method. With continuous reform, it could resume and preserve its prosperity. Opinion C, Guangzhou Port faces both opportunities and challenges. The opportunities exit in the great cargo sources brought by the high-speed grown of economy in Pearl River Delta. The challenges come from the competitions among surrounding ports and Guangzhou Port's incapability in production. What's the main problem faced by Guangzhou Port? Upon this, the seminar hasn't formed an overwhelming opinion.
The case analysis centers on the reason why the port production development slows down. With the SPSS 11.0 statistic software, correlation ^egression and curve estimation analysis have been carried out on Guangzhou Port's cargo sources and production capability. At 95% confidence, it comes such a conclusion that Guangzhou Port has sufficient cargo sources but will become incapable in production. While getting ride off Guangzhou Port's bewilderment the conclusion provides basis solution to the bottleneck situation.
Although the case discusses Guangzhou Port's development, it is still of universal significance and could be used for reference by other ports. The statistical methods employed in the case analysis are also of universal significance. Among them, a statistical conclusion is found that it's a strictly positive interrelation between port cargo sources and the city's GDP. It could also be referred on confirming specific port size and guiding port design to meet the future development
与会者对广州港的发展前景与目前困难的看法各不相同。第一种意见认为：河港衰落，海港兴起是普遍规律，主张认命和退出竞争；第二种意见认为：广州港已取得骄人业绩，所面临的问题是方式方法问题，不是本质问题，只须不断改良便能维持广州港的繁荣；第三种意见认为：广州港既面临机遇，又面临挑战；机遇是珠三角经济的高速发展为广州港带来了大量货源；挑战来自周边港口竞争广州港本身生产能力的相对不足。港口面临的主要矛盾是什么?对此公说婆说，各执一理。专题会未形成一致性结论。
案例分析围绕港口生产发展速度下降的原因展开调查，并应用 SPSS11.0统计软件包，对广州港货源和生产能力情况进行相关分析、曲线拟合分析和假设检验，在5％置信度上得出“广州港货源充足但港口生产能力不足”的结论。这一结论，既解开了广州港人的困惑，又为广州港消除发展瓶颈提供依据。
本案例所涉及的港口发展问题，虽然发生在广州港，但这个问题带有普遍性，对全国其他港口有借鉴作用。案例分析所采用的有关统计方法，也具有普遍性，可供其他港口分析诊断问题参考。其中，“港口货源与港口腹地GDP高度正相关”这一具有普遍意义的统计结论，为如何确定特定港口的设计规模，提高港口规划的前瞻性，提供了一个重要的参照系。
As a large port of 100,000,000 tons in quantity of inpor/export cargo, the second-large port in China ,Guangzhou port was overtaken by Ningbo port in 2001.What's the reason? Why Guangzhou port railed in harbour competition? It became the great bewilderment raced by Guangzhou port. To find the way out, Mr. H hosted a seminar with topic of Guangzhou Port's Survival and Development
Attendants expressed different opinions on Guangzhou Port's future and present difficulties. Opinion A, It's a common rule that river ports goes downhill and the sea ports gets upsurge. Therefore, it's better for Guangzhou Port to stay away from the competition. Opinion B, Guangzhou Port has made some achievements. The difficulties it faces now are mainly about the management method. With continuous reform, it could resume and preserve its prosperity. Opinion C, Guangzhou Port faces both opportunities and challenges. The opportunities exit in the great cargo sources brought by the high-speed grown of economy in Pearl River Delta. The challenges come from the competitions among surrounding ports and Guangzhou Port's incapability in production. What's the main problem faced by Guangzhou Port? Upon this, the seminar hasn't formed an overwhelming opinion.
The case analysis centers on the reason why the port production development slows down. With the SPSS 11.0 statistic software, correlation ^egression and curve estimation analysis have been carried out on Guangzhou Port's cargo sources and production capability. At 95% confidence, it comes such a conclusion that Guangzhou Port has sufficient cargo sources but will become incapable in production. While getting ride off Guangzhou Port's bewilderment the conclusion provides basis solution to the bottleneck situation.
Although the case discusses Guangzhou Port's development, it is still of universal significance and could be used for reference by other ports. The statistical methods employed in the case analysis are also of universal significance. Among them, a statistical conclusion is found that it's a strictly positive interrelation between port cargo sources and the city's GDP. It could also be referred on confirming specific port size and guiding port design to meet the future development
引文
1、肖春主编《港口规划》大连海事大学出版社1999年2月第1版
2、MC·弗来明编著《商务统计》中信出版社1999年2月第1版
3、卫海英主编 《SPSS 10.0 for windows在经济管理中的应用》中国统计出版社，2000年8月第1版
4、任虹主编《港口发展规划概论》人民交通出版社1994年出版
5、洪承礼主编《港口规划与布局》人民交通出版社 1988年出版
6、何晓群编著《现代统计分析方法与应用》人民大学出版社 1999年
7、罗积玉、邢瑛主编《经济统计分析方法与预测》清华大学出版社 1987年
2、MC·弗来明编著《商务统计》中信出版社1999年2月第1版
3、卫海英主编 《SPSS 10.0 for windows在经济管理中的应用》中国统计出版社，2000年8月第1版
4、任虹主编《港口发展规划概论》人民交通出版社1994年出版
5、洪承礼主编《港口规划与布局》人民交通出版社 1988年出版
6、何晓群编著《现代统计分析方法与应用》人民大学出版社 1999年
7、罗积玉、邢瑛主编《经济统计分析方法与预测》清华大学出版社 1987年