上海地区内河水路运输统计调查方法研究
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摘要
交通运输业是国民经济的重要组成部分，而其中内河水路运输在整个交通运输业中占据的地位越来越重要，相应地，对于内河水路运输的统计调查，也越来越受到全国及各省市的普遍重视，进而对开展内河水路运输统计调查也提出了更高更新的要求，以便通过科学合理的统计调查，获取有利于内河港口建设及管理、内河航道规划等的重要数据和统计指标。
基于内河水路运输统计调查的重要性和现实意义，交通部早在1993年就开始了对于全国水路运输量统计调查方法研究。上海地区做为内河航运最发达的地区，在这方面的探索和研究是走在全国各省市前列的。
本文通过对美国水路运输量统计调查体系的研究，指出依托港航监督部门开展内河水路运输量统计调查在上海地区以及与上海地区具有类似港监部门职能系统的省市是可行的。
通过对上海地区水路运输现行统计调查方法的实证及本质分析，对现行方法进行了全面而深入的评价，从现行方法本身及推断效果两个层面来加以分析和评价。在此过程中，结合实际数据，就典型调查中最优典型的确定原则，展开了详细探讨，并给出可供选择和参考的最优典型。
最后，就现行方法从抽样到推算，提出可行性建议；并指出随着水路运输统计调查信息化的趋势，上海地区内河水路运输统计调查面临的问题和进一步应开展的工作。
The communication and transportation business is the important component of the national economy, while the inland waterway transportation is now playing the increasingly prominent role in it. The statistics and investigation of the inland waterway transportation is, accordingly, receiving the increasing attention from the whole country. That has therefore put forward a higher and stricter demand on the statistics and investigation of the inland waterway transportation, so that the scientific and reasonable statistics and investigation can help to gain the proper and helpful important data and statistic index about the construction and management of the inland ports and the programming of the inland water routes.
Considering the importance and the practical significance of the statistics and investigation of the inland waterway transportation, the Ministry of Communication has already begun the study about the statistic method on the volume of the national inland waterway transportation in 1993. As the most developed inland shipping district, Shanghai stands on the top of the list among all the provinces and cities with regard to the exploration and studying of it.
With the help of the study on the statistics and investigation system in the transportation volume in American inland waterway, this paper has made it clear that it is quite feasible to make the statistics and investigation of the inland waterway transportation volume relying on the port and shipping supervision department in the area of Shanghai and other areas with such a similar functional department as in Shanghai.
By means of the demonstration and analysis of the current statistics and investigation method in Shanghai, this paper has also made a comprehensive comment and analysis on the current method in a way of two levels of the current method itself and its resulting effects. Meanwhile, the author has launched the detailed analysis with the principle of the optimum model among all the surveys and provided the model for reference.
Finally, the author has brought forward a feasible suggestion regarding the current method of sampling and reckoning, and pointed out the confronted problems and the corresponding measures for the statistics and investigation of inland waterway with the trend of waterway transportation informationization.
Wen Yang(lndustry Economics) Directed by Prof. Xiao Zhaoyuan
基于内河水路运输统计调查的重要性和现实意义，交通部早在1993年就开始了对于全国水路运输量统计调查方法研究。上海地区做为内河航运最发达的地区，在这方面的探索和研究是走在全国各省市前列的。
本文通过对美国水路运输量统计调查体系的研究，指出依托港航监督部门开展内河水路运输量统计调查在上海地区以及与上海地区具有类似港监部门职能系统的省市是可行的。
通过对上海地区水路运输现行统计调查方法的实证及本质分析，对现行方法进行了全面而深入的评价，从现行方法本身及推断效果两个层面来加以分析和评价。在此过程中，结合实际数据，就典型调查中最优典型的确定原则，展开了详细探讨，并给出可供选择和参考的最优典型。
最后，就现行方法从抽样到推算，提出可行性建议；并指出随着水路运输统计调查信息化的趋势，上海地区内河水路运输统计调查面临的问题和进一步应开展的工作。
The communication and transportation business is the important component of the national economy, while the inland waterway transportation is now playing the increasingly prominent role in it. The statistics and investigation of the inland waterway transportation is, accordingly, receiving the increasing attention from the whole country. That has therefore put forward a higher and stricter demand on the statistics and investigation of the inland waterway transportation, so that the scientific and reasonable statistics and investigation can help to gain the proper and helpful important data and statistic index about the construction and management of the inland ports and the programming of the inland water routes.
Considering the importance and the practical significance of the statistics and investigation of the inland waterway transportation, the Ministry of Communication has already begun the study about the statistic method on the volume of the national inland waterway transportation in 1993. As the most developed inland shipping district, Shanghai stands on the top of the list among all the provinces and cities with regard to the exploration and studying of it.
With the help of the study on the statistics and investigation system in the transportation volume in American inland waterway, this paper has made it clear that it is quite feasible to make the statistics and investigation of the inland waterway transportation volume relying on the port and shipping supervision department in the area of Shanghai and other areas with such a similar functional department as in Shanghai.
By means of the demonstration and analysis of the current statistics and investigation method in Shanghai, this paper has also made a comprehensive comment and analysis on the current method in a way of two levels of the current method itself and its resulting effects. Meanwhile, the author has launched the detailed analysis with the principle of the optimum model among all the surveys and provided the model for reference.
Finally, the author has brought forward a feasible suggestion regarding the current method of sampling and reckoning, and pointed out the confronted problems and the corresponding measures for the statistics and investigation of inland waterway with the trend of waterway transportation informationization.
Wen Yang(lndustry Economics) Directed by Prof. Xiao Zhaoyuan
引文
1 肖昭媛 主编．统计学．人民交通出版社，1996
2 贾俊平等．统计学．中国人民大学出版社，2000．8
3 冯士雍 倪加勋等．抽样调查理论与方法．中国统计出版社，1998
4 何晓群．现代统计分析方法与应用．中国人民大学出版社，1998
5 施锡铨．数据分析方法．上海财经大学出版社，1997．10
6 水路运输量抽样调查的方法研究及方案设计课题研究报告．交通部科学研究院，2001．9
7 上海海运学院经贸系统计教研室．水路运输量统计分析与预测方法，1995．12
8 肖昭媛．水路运输统计体系专题系列研究之—关于水路运输统计调查体系的研究．水运管理，1995
9 李序颖．水路运输统计体系专题系列研究之四—我国水路运输量统计调查方法的研究．水运管理，1995
10 李序颖．全国内河港口货物吞吐量统计调查与分析，1999
11 肖昭媛．抽样单元研究二：论码头港监签证点和乡镇．水运管理
12 余思勤．全国内河港口货物吞吐量抽样调查指标设置研究．水运管理
13 凌定成．港口吞吐量抽样调查中调查时间问题研究．上海海运学院硕士论文，1998
14 凌定成．港口货物吞吐量抽样调查中的样本再处理．水运管理，1998
15 陈湖 陈启宇．水运统计学．人民交通出版社，1986
16 卢纹岱主编．SPSS for Windows统计分析．电子工业出版社，2000
17 黄良文 吴国培．应用抽样方法．中国统计出版社，1991
18 金勇进 李序颖等．抽样技术．中国人民大学出版社，2002
19 卢宗辉．抽样方法的系统研究．中国统计出版社，1998
20 王国明等．抽样原理及其应用．中国统计出版社，1996
21 David C．Hoaglin等．UNDERSTANDING ROBUST AND EXPLORATORY DATA ANALYSIS．中国统计出版社，1998
2 贾俊平等．统计学．中国人民大学出版社，2000．8
3 冯士雍 倪加勋等．抽样调查理论与方法．中国统计出版社，1998
4 何晓群．现代统计分析方法与应用．中国人民大学出版社，1998
5 施锡铨．数据分析方法．上海财经大学出版社，1997．10
6 水路运输量抽样调查的方法研究及方案设计课题研究报告．交通部科学研究院，2001．9
7 上海海运学院经贸系统计教研室．水路运输量统计分析与预测方法，1995．12
8 肖昭媛．水路运输统计体系专题系列研究之—关于水路运输统计调查体系的研究．水运管理，1995
9 李序颖．水路运输统计体系专题系列研究之四—我国水路运输量统计调查方法的研究．水运管理，1995
10 李序颖．全国内河港口货物吞吐量统计调查与分析，1999
11 肖昭媛．抽样单元研究二：论码头港监签证点和乡镇．水运管理
12 余思勤．全国内河港口货物吞吐量抽样调查指标设置研究．水运管理
13 凌定成．港口吞吐量抽样调查中调查时间问题研究．上海海运学院硕士论文，1998
14 凌定成．港口货物吞吐量抽样调查中的样本再处理．水运管理，1998
15 陈湖 陈启宇．水运统计学．人民交通出版社，1986
16 卢纹岱主编．SPSS for Windows统计分析．电子工业出版社，2000
17 黄良文 吴国培．应用抽样方法．中国统计出版社，1991
18 金勇进 李序颖等．抽样技术．中国人民大学出版社，2002
19 卢宗辉．抽样方法的系统研究．中国统计出版社，1998
20 王国明等．抽样原理及其应用．中国统计出版社，1996
21 David C．Hoaglin等．UNDERSTANDING ROBUST AND EXPLORATORY DATA ANALYSIS．中国统计出版社，1998