三峡库区重庆东段生态安全评价研究
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摘要
生态环境是指地球上所有生物和非生物通过物质循环和能量流动的互相作用、互相依存构成的。生态安全是指人类赖以生存的环境要素如空气、土壤、森林、海洋、湿地、水等不被破坏与威胁的动态过程,包括自然生态安全、生态系统安全和人类生态安全。由于不断追求经济的高速发展,人类活动对环境的扰动强度和资源环境所需要承受来自人类活动的压力正在不断增大。由人为因素导致的环境污染、生态破坏所引发的环境事件、地质灾害、异常气候状况等灾害对区域可持续发展、社会稳定以及社会进步的威胁越来越大。生态安全已不再只局限于生态系统范畴,它与政治安全、军事安全、经济安全一同构成了国家安全,是国家安全重要基础,而政治安全、军事安全、经济安全则是生态安全的重要保障。近年来,外国学者主要研究全球或者国家层面的生态安全,其研究内容主要是环境变化与安全的内在联系。而在我国,生态安全的核心研究内容是生态安全评价,而要使生态安全研究具有现实意义,唯有对生态环境因子及生态系统整体进行可靠的、可行的、并能为决策者提供指导信息的生态安全评价才能实现。为此本研究在对区域生态安全科学基础探讨的前提下,首先了解研究区生态足迹、万元GDP足迹、生态承载力以及生态赤字时空演变规律与空间分异特征,在此基础上分析社会经济发展与生态足迹相互关系,其次是对研究区的生态安全进行评价,明确区域生态安全现状、问题及其变化趋势,为建立研究区生态安全评价指标体系提供理论依据和支持,最后要对研究区生态安全发展趋势作出预测,并提出调控对策。
本研究选择三峡库区重庆东段作为研究区域。三峡水库作为南水北调中线工程重要的补充水源地,为超过全国一半人口和近四分之一幅员范围提供用水,根据国务院批复的《三峡后续工作规划》,三峡库区定位为国家战略性淡水资源库。三峡库区重庆东段位于三峡库区中心,东起巫山县,西至万州区,是重庆直辖市的东大门,是长江经济带的重要组成部分,属长江上游的下段,是全国重要的生态功能区之一。由于该区域属于国家西部连片贫困区、百万移民安置区,且地质灾害多发,水土流失严重、生态环境脆弱,人口与资源和生态环境的矛盾十分突出,生态安全问题已经成为制约该地区可持续发展的重要因素。开展该地区生态安全评价研究,对于保障三峡库区和长江中下游地区群众饮水安全、优化中国跨流域水资源调配、缓解北方干旱缺水、实现国家水资源优化配置具有重要战略意义。
本文主要内容包括7章：
第一章为绪论。阐述研究背景、国内外研究现状、研究目的、内容与方法,确立技术路线。通过研读大量国内外文献资料,从生态安全的概念、特点以及分类,国内外生态安全理论研究的发展历程,通过国内外生态安全评价研究对比,我国的生态安全评价研究所存在的问题,以上几个方面进行文献综述的撰写。
本研究在地理学、生态学、景观生态学、地统计学等学科的理论基础上,运用生态足迹及生态承载力模型、灰色关联度模型以及灰色系统预测模型,通过ARCGIS、MATLAB和SPSS等技术手段,结合区域社会及自然环境特点,对三峡库区重庆东段区域生态安全状况进行评价研究。
第二章为三峡库区重庆东段区域概况。本章通过对研究区自然环境状况、社会经济状况的描述,分析对该区域开展生态安全评价研究的重要性及理论与实践意义。
第三章为三峡库区重庆东段生态足迹研究。分别从研究区生态足迹与生态承载力动态变化关系及生态足迹与社会经济驱动力关系2方面进行分析。本文应用生态足迹理论及计算方法对2001～2011年三峡库区重庆东段各区县生态足迹、生态承载力进行了计算与动态分析,结果表明2001～2011年三峡库区重庆东段各区县生态足迹、人均生态足迹和万元GDP足迹呈现明显的增长趋势,生态承载力则呈现不同程度的逐年降低的趋势,且生态足迹均大于生态承载力,研究区因此出现生态赤字并不断扩大。空间分布上,各区县生态足迹呈现自西向东逐渐递减的分布特征,生态承载力则是两边高中间低的分布态势。说明研究区内人类的生产活动、经济活动频繁,自然资源的消费远远超过了区域所能提供的资源供给,人口的增长和经济的发展对资源的需求已经超过了研究区生态系统的再生能力。
研究区各区县近年来的发展不断加快,城市化、工业化程度逐渐增高,人均收入与消费水平也在不断提高,因此选取了8个社会经济指标,通过相关性分析、指标主成分分析以及多元线性回归分析,对生态足迹与社会经济指标之间相互关系进行分析,结果表明社会经济发展强烈驱动着研究区各区县生态足迹的增长,从而导致了生态足迹的居高不下,反映了研究区各区县总体发展的不可持续性。
第四章为三峡库区重庆东段生态安全评价分析2001～2011年研究区生态安全状况及分布。本章选择灰色关联模型作为本章生态安全度计算模型,并探索性的建立了评价指标体系和生态安全等级划分标准做了深入探索,最后对研究区2001～2011年生态安全状况时空演变规律进行分析。结果表明,研究区各区县生态安全度、压力安全度、状态安全度以及响应安全度等级多数达到Ⅲ级或者Ⅳ级,有极少区县在个别年份出现Ⅱ级的情况。空间分布上,研究区生态安全度方面三峡水库腹心地带生态安全度高于库周地区；研究区各区县压力安全度呈下降趋势,区域整体资源环境压力在增大,但三峡库区长江干流沿线各区县资源环境压力相对小于其他区县；各区县状态安全度空间分异发生明显变化,研究区内各区县资源环境状况及发展趋势趋于良好,各区县之间的差距正在缩短；各区县响应安全度都有明显增加,其中万州增幅最大,说明各区县正在加强生态安全响应力度,努力实现可持续发展。
第五章为三峡库区重庆东段生态安全度灰色预测研究。采用第四章所计算得出的2001～2011年三峡库区重庆东段各区县生态安全度、压力安全度、状态安全度和响应安全度构建GM(1,1)灰色系统预测模型,对研究区各区县的生态安全度、压力安全度、状态安全度和响应安全度进行中长期预测。结果显示,到2017年各区县生态安全度、压力安全度、状态安全度和响应安全度均达Ⅳ级或者以上,虽仍有个别区县增幅较小,但区域整体生态安全状况正在往好的方向发展。空间分布上,2017年各区县生态安全状况持续好转,但区县之间生态安全状况差距正在逐渐拉大,空间分异状况加剧。
第六章为生态安全调控对策研究。根据已经取得的生态安全评价和预测结果分别从完善法律法规,优化行政管理体制,强化政府宏观调控职能,建立市场化机制,加强生态安全科学技术研究以及公众参与等方面提出三峡库区重庆东段生态安全调控对策,为保障区域生态安全,实现区域可持续发展,提供科学的支撑体系。
第七章为结论与展望。归纳总结了本文的结论与可能的创新点。
The ecological environment influencing human survival and development refers to the quantity and quality of water resources, land resources, biological resources and climate resources. The ecological environment is a compound ecosystem which is related to the development of the social and economic sustainable. The ecological security is a status when the personal life, health, happiness, basic rights, source of life safeguard, necessary resources, social order and the human ability to adapt to environmental changes were not threatened. A composite artificial ecological security system is formed, including natural ecological security, economic security and social ecological security. With the rapid development of social economy, human activities have become increasingly frequent, so that the pressure which the resources and environment need to bear is increasing. The ecological disasters such as geological disasters, extreme weather conditions which was caused by the environmental pollution and ecological destruction was a growing threat to the sustainable development of regional. The connotation of ecological security is beyond the category of organism or ecosystem. It is an important part of national security, the basis and carrier of other security as well as the country's political security, military security, territorial security, financial security. In recent years, the studies of ecological security in other country are mainly concentrated in global or national level. The scientists have focused on the internal relationship between environmental change and security. There are important real guiding meanings of assessing the factor of ecological environment and ecological system. The assessment must be reliable, feasible, and providing guidance for policymakers. Therefore, based on the discussion of scientific basis of regional ecological security, this research has studied temporal evolution and spatial variation of the regional ecological footprint, ecological capacity, million yuan GDP footprint and ecological deficit. Then, the study has analyzed the relationship between social economic development and ecological footprint. After that, the study has assessed the regional ecological security, found out the problem of ecological security status region and its temporal evolution and spatial characteristics and provided a theoretical basis and support for the establishment of evaluation index system of regional ecological security. At last, the study has predicted the development trend of regional ecological security, and put forward the control countermeasure.
This study selects the east of Chongqing in Three Gorges Reservoir area as the study area. As a supplementary water source of South to North Water Diversion Project, the Three Gorges Reservoir is providing water for more than half the population and nearly1/4vast in scope. According to the "Three Gorges follow-up work plan" which has been approved by the State Council, the Three Gorges Reservoir Area was designated as a national strategic freshwater resource. The Three Gorges Reservoir area of Eastern Chongqing is located in the center of the Three Gorges area, the east area is Wushan County, and the west is Wanzhou District.it is the east gate of Chongqing municipality directly under the central government. It is an important part of the Yangtze River economic belt, at lower section to the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. It is one of the important ecological function areas. Because this region belongs to the poor areas in the west of the country, millions of migrant resettlement area, where prone to geological disasters, soil erosion and the ecological environment are fragile. The contradiction among population resource and the ecological environment is very prominent. Ecological security has become an important factor that restricts the sustainable development of the region. Studying on ecological security evaluation of the area, to protect the safety of drinking water in the Three Gorges Reservoir area and the area of middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, optimize inter-basin water in China, ease drought and water shortage in northern area, achieve the optimization of national water resources are considered to be strategically important.
The main content of this paper includes7chapters:
The first chapter is introduction which introduces the research background, the domestic and foreign research present situation research purpose, content and method and technical route. By reading a lot of domestic and foreign literature about the concept, characteristics and classification of ecological security, the development process of ecological security research, the difference of ecological security assessment, the problem of ecological security assessment research. The literature review is written in the above aspects.
Combining with the regional social and natural environment, this research which is based on the theories and methods of geography, ecology, landscape ecology, statistics, by using the ecological footprint model, ecological carrying capacity models, grey correlation degree model and the grey system prediction model, ARCGIS, MATLAB and SPSS techniques, assesses and studies the Three Gorges in Chongqing the eastern regional ecological security status.
The second chapter is the general situation of eastern region of Chongqing in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. By describing the natural environment, social and economic status of the study area, this chapter analyzes the importance and theory and practice meaning through studying ecological security assessment in the region.
The third chapter is the study of ecological footprint of Chongqing section in Three Gorges Reservoir area. One aspect is the dynamic relationship between ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity. The other aspect is the relationship between ecological footprint and social economic driving force. In this paper, the ecological footprint theory and method are applied to calculate and analyze the ecological footprint and ecological capacity from2001-2011in Three Gorges Reservoir area of Eastern Chongqing County. The results show that from2001～2011, ecological footprint, ecological footprint per capita and million yuan GDP footprint have an obvious growth trend. There are different levels of decreasing trend of ecological carrying capacity, while the ecological footprint is bigger than the ecological capacity, accordingly, the ecological deficit appears and expands. The spatial distribution of ecological footprint is decreasing from the southwest to northeast direction. The spatial distribution of the ecological carrying capacity on both sides of a relatively high and middle low. That tells us, in the study area, the human activity of production, economic activity, the consumption of natural resources is far more than the area can provide. The population growth and economic development are demanding for resource which has exceeded the regeneration capacity of the ecological system.
In recent years, the development of the research area is accelerating, urbanization and industrialization level are gradually increased, and the per capita income and consumption level is also rising. Thus,8social and economic indicators were chosen to run correlation analysis, principal component analysis and multivariate linear regression analysis, in order to analyze the relationship between the ecological footprint and social economy index. The results show that the development of the society and economy is strongly driven growth of ecological footprint, leading to a high ecological footprint, reflecting the unsustainability of the general development of the study area.
The forth chapter is the ecological security assessment which has analyzed ecological security condition and distribution in Three Gorges Reservoir area of Eastern Chongqing. Grey correlation model was chosen as the ecological security evaluation model in this chapter. Evaluation index system of ecological security and ecological safety hierarchy were established to analyze ecological security situation in time and space evolution law in the study area from2001to2011.The results show that the most of ecological security, pressure security, state security level and response security level reached Ⅲ or Ⅳ. There are a few counties at level II in some year. The ecological security level is higher while the research area is closer to the hinterland of the Three Gorges reservoir. The pressure security level is decreasing which means the regional resources and environmental pressures is increasing. Along the stem stream of Yangtze River, pressures on resource and environment are relatively less than other districts. Spatial distribution of state safety level is changing significantly. In the study area, the environmental situation and development trend is good. The gap of environmental situation between each county is shortening. The response security level has been increased obviously. In the study area, Wanzhou shows a largest increase in the response security level. Efforts have been made to response to the ecological security status, in order to make this area developing in a sustainable way.
The fifth chapter is the grey prediction research on ecological security level in the Three Gorges Reservoir area east of Chongqing. The construction of GM (1,1) grey system forecast model based on the calculation results of ecological security level, pressure security level, state safety level, response security level2001-2011in Three Gorges Reservoir Area in Chongqing. This model is used to make long-term prediction of ecological security level, pressure security level, state safety level and response security level. Results show that, until2017, ecological safety, pressure security, state security level and response security level are all grown to level Ⅳ or above. Although there are still a few counties have a small increase, the regional ecological security situation is moving in the right direction. Until2017, the gap of ecological security situation between counties in the study area is gradually widening.
The sixth chapter is the study of ecological security countermeasures. According to the ecological security assessment and the prediction results ecological security countermeasures such as improving rules and regulations, optimizing administration system, strengthening the government's macro-control functions, establishing a market-oriented mechanism, encouraging research in science and technology related to ecological security and public participation. These countermeasures will provide scientific support system for improving regional ecological security and propelling the sustainable development.
The seventh chapter is the conclusion and prospect which has summarized the conclusion of this article and possible innovation points.
本研究选择三峡库区重庆东段作为研究区域。三峡水库作为南水北调中线工程重要的补充水源地,为超过全国一半人口和近四分之一幅员范围提供用水,根据国务院批复的《三峡后续工作规划》,三峡库区定位为国家战略性淡水资源库。三峡库区重庆东段位于三峡库区中心,东起巫山县,西至万州区,是重庆直辖市的东大门,是长江经济带的重要组成部分,属长江上游的下段,是全国重要的生态功能区之一。由于该区域属于国家西部连片贫困区、百万移民安置区,且地质灾害多发,水土流失严重、生态环境脆弱,人口与资源和生态环境的矛盾十分突出,生态安全问题已经成为制约该地区可持续发展的重要因素。开展该地区生态安全评价研究,对于保障三峡库区和长江中下游地区群众饮水安全、优化中国跨流域水资源调配、缓解北方干旱缺水、实现国家水资源优化配置具有重要战略意义。
本文主要内容包括7章：
第一章为绪论。阐述研究背景、国内外研究现状、研究目的、内容与方法,确立技术路线。通过研读大量国内外文献资料,从生态安全的概念、特点以及分类,国内外生态安全理论研究的发展历程,通过国内外生态安全评价研究对比,我国的生态安全评价研究所存在的问题,以上几个方面进行文献综述的撰写。
本研究在地理学、生态学、景观生态学、地统计学等学科的理论基础上,运用生态足迹及生态承载力模型、灰色关联度模型以及灰色系统预测模型,通过ARCGIS、MATLAB和SPSS等技术手段,结合区域社会及自然环境特点,对三峡库区重庆东段区域生态安全状况进行评价研究。
第二章为三峡库区重庆东段区域概况。本章通过对研究区自然环境状况、社会经济状况的描述,分析对该区域开展生态安全评价研究的重要性及理论与实践意义。
第三章为三峡库区重庆东段生态足迹研究。分别从研究区生态足迹与生态承载力动态变化关系及生态足迹与社会经济驱动力关系2方面进行分析。本文应用生态足迹理论及计算方法对2001～2011年三峡库区重庆东段各区县生态足迹、生态承载力进行了计算与动态分析,结果表明2001～2011年三峡库区重庆东段各区县生态足迹、人均生态足迹和万元GDP足迹呈现明显的增长趋势,生态承载力则呈现不同程度的逐年降低的趋势,且生态足迹均大于生态承载力,研究区因此出现生态赤字并不断扩大。空间分布上,各区县生态足迹呈现自西向东逐渐递减的分布特征,生态承载力则是两边高中间低的分布态势。说明研究区内人类的生产活动、经济活动频繁,自然资源的消费远远超过了区域所能提供的资源供给,人口的增长和经济的发展对资源的需求已经超过了研究区生态系统的再生能力。
研究区各区县近年来的发展不断加快,城市化、工业化程度逐渐增高,人均收入与消费水平也在不断提高,因此选取了8个社会经济指标,通过相关性分析、指标主成分分析以及多元线性回归分析,对生态足迹与社会经济指标之间相互关系进行分析,结果表明社会经济发展强烈驱动着研究区各区县生态足迹的增长,从而导致了生态足迹的居高不下,反映了研究区各区县总体发展的不可持续性。
第四章为三峡库区重庆东段生态安全评价分析2001～2011年研究区生态安全状况及分布。本章选择灰色关联模型作为本章生态安全度计算模型,并探索性的建立了评价指标体系和生态安全等级划分标准做了深入探索,最后对研究区2001～2011年生态安全状况时空演变规律进行分析。结果表明,研究区各区县生态安全度、压力安全度、状态安全度以及响应安全度等级多数达到Ⅲ级或者Ⅳ级,有极少区县在个别年份出现Ⅱ级的情况。空间分布上,研究区生态安全度方面三峡水库腹心地带生态安全度高于库周地区；研究区各区县压力安全度呈下降趋势,区域整体资源环境压力在增大,但三峡库区长江干流沿线各区县资源环境压力相对小于其他区县；各区县状态安全度空间分异发生明显变化,研究区内各区县资源环境状况及发展趋势趋于良好,各区县之间的差距正在缩短；各区县响应安全度都有明显增加,其中万州增幅最大,说明各区县正在加强生态安全响应力度,努力实现可持续发展。
第五章为三峡库区重庆东段生态安全度灰色预测研究。采用第四章所计算得出的2001～2011年三峡库区重庆东段各区县生态安全度、压力安全度、状态安全度和响应安全度构建GM(1,1)灰色系统预测模型,对研究区各区县的生态安全度、压力安全度、状态安全度和响应安全度进行中长期预测。结果显示,到2017年各区县生态安全度、压力安全度、状态安全度和响应安全度均达Ⅳ级或者以上,虽仍有个别区县增幅较小,但区域整体生态安全状况正在往好的方向发展。空间分布上,2017年各区县生态安全状况持续好转,但区县之间生态安全状况差距正在逐渐拉大,空间分异状况加剧。
第六章为生态安全调控对策研究。根据已经取得的生态安全评价和预测结果分别从完善法律法规,优化行政管理体制,强化政府宏观调控职能,建立市场化机制,加强生态安全科学技术研究以及公众参与等方面提出三峡库区重庆东段生态安全调控对策,为保障区域生态安全,实现区域可持续发展,提供科学的支撑体系。
第七章为结论与展望。归纳总结了本文的结论与可能的创新点。
The ecological environment influencing human survival and development refers to the quantity and quality of water resources, land resources, biological resources and climate resources. The ecological environment is a compound ecosystem which is related to the development of the social and economic sustainable. The ecological security is a status when the personal life, health, happiness, basic rights, source of life safeguard, necessary resources, social order and the human ability to adapt to environmental changes were not threatened. A composite artificial ecological security system is formed, including natural ecological security, economic security and social ecological security. With the rapid development of social economy, human activities have become increasingly frequent, so that the pressure which the resources and environment need to bear is increasing. The ecological disasters such as geological disasters, extreme weather conditions which was caused by the environmental pollution and ecological destruction was a growing threat to the sustainable development of regional. The connotation of ecological security is beyond the category of organism or ecosystem. It is an important part of national security, the basis and carrier of other security as well as the country's political security, military security, territorial security, financial security. In recent years, the studies of ecological security in other country are mainly concentrated in global or national level. The scientists have focused on the internal relationship between environmental change and security. There are important real guiding meanings of assessing the factor of ecological environment and ecological system. The assessment must be reliable, feasible, and providing guidance for policymakers. Therefore, based on the discussion of scientific basis of regional ecological security, this research has studied temporal evolution and spatial variation of the regional ecological footprint, ecological capacity, million yuan GDP footprint and ecological deficit. Then, the study has analyzed the relationship between social economic development and ecological footprint. After that, the study has assessed the regional ecological security, found out the problem of ecological security status region and its temporal evolution and spatial characteristics and provided a theoretical basis and support for the establishment of evaluation index system of regional ecological security. At last, the study has predicted the development trend of regional ecological security, and put forward the control countermeasure.
This study selects the east of Chongqing in Three Gorges Reservoir area as the study area. As a supplementary water source of South to North Water Diversion Project, the Three Gorges Reservoir is providing water for more than half the population and nearly1/4vast in scope. According to the "Three Gorges follow-up work plan" which has been approved by the State Council, the Three Gorges Reservoir Area was designated as a national strategic freshwater resource. The Three Gorges Reservoir area of Eastern Chongqing is located in the center of the Three Gorges area, the east area is Wushan County, and the west is Wanzhou District.it is the east gate of Chongqing municipality directly under the central government. It is an important part of the Yangtze River economic belt, at lower section to the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. It is one of the important ecological function areas. Because this region belongs to the poor areas in the west of the country, millions of migrant resettlement area, where prone to geological disasters, soil erosion and the ecological environment are fragile. The contradiction among population resource and the ecological environment is very prominent. Ecological security has become an important factor that restricts the sustainable development of the region. Studying on ecological security evaluation of the area, to protect the safety of drinking water in the Three Gorges Reservoir area and the area of middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River, optimize inter-basin water in China, ease drought and water shortage in northern area, achieve the optimization of national water resources are considered to be strategically important.
The main content of this paper includes7chapters:
The first chapter is introduction which introduces the research background, the domestic and foreign research present situation research purpose, content and method and technical route. By reading a lot of domestic and foreign literature about the concept, characteristics and classification of ecological security, the development process of ecological security research, the difference of ecological security assessment, the problem of ecological security assessment research. The literature review is written in the above aspects.
Combining with the regional social and natural environment, this research which is based on the theories and methods of geography, ecology, landscape ecology, statistics, by using the ecological footprint model, ecological carrying capacity models, grey correlation degree model and the grey system prediction model, ARCGIS, MATLAB and SPSS techniques, assesses and studies the Three Gorges in Chongqing the eastern regional ecological security status.
The second chapter is the general situation of eastern region of Chongqing in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. By describing the natural environment, social and economic status of the study area, this chapter analyzes the importance and theory and practice meaning through studying ecological security assessment in the region.
The third chapter is the study of ecological footprint of Chongqing section in Three Gorges Reservoir area. One aspect is the dynamic relationship between ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity. The other aspect is the relationship between ecological footprint and social economic driving force. In this paper, the ecological footprint theory and method are applied to calculate and analyze the ecological footprint and ecological capacity from2001-2011in Three Gorges Reservoir area of Eastern Chongqing County. The results show that from2001～2011, ecological footprint, ecological footprint per capita and million yuan GDP footprint have an obvious growth trend. There are different levels of decreasing trend of ecological carrying capacity, while the ecological footprint is bigger than the ecological capacity, accordingly, the ecological deficit appears and expands. The spatial distribution of ecological footprint is decreasing from the southwest to northeast direction. The spatial distribution of the ecological carrying capacity on both sides of a relatively high and middle low. That tells us, in the study area, the human activity of production, economic activity, the consumption of natural resources is far more than the area can provide. The population growth and economic development are demanding for resource which has exceeded the regeneration capacity of the ecological system.
In recent years, the development of the research area is accelerating, urbanization and industrialization level are gradually increased, and the per capita income and consumption level is also rising. Thus,8social and economic indicators were chosen to run correlation analysis, principal component analysis and multivariate linear regression analysis, in order to analyze the relationship between the ecological footprint and social economy index. The results show that the development of the society and economy is strongly driven growth of ecological footprint, leading to a high ecological footprint, reflecting the unsustainability of the general development of the study area.
The forth chapter is the ecological security assessment which has analyzed ecological security condition and distribution in Three Gorges Reservoir area of Eastern Chongqing. Grey correlation model was chosen as the ecological security evaluation model in this chapter. Evaluation index system of ecological security and ecological safety hierarchy were established to analyze ecological security situation in time and space evolution law in the study area from2001to2011.The results show that the most of ecological security, pressure security, state security level and response security level reached Ⅲ or Ⅳ. There are a few counties at level II in some year. The ecological security level is higher while the research area is closer to the hinterland of the Three Gorges reservoir. The pressure security level is decreasing which means the regional resources and environmental pressures is increasing. Along the stem stream of Yangtze River, pressures on resource and environment are relatively less than other districts. Spatial distribution of state safety level is changing significantly. In the study area, the environmental situation and development trend is good. The gap of environmental situation between each county is shortening. The response security level has been increased obviously. In the study area, Wanzhou shows a largest increase in the response security level. Efforts have been made to response to the ecological security status, in order to make this area developing in a sustainable way.
The fifth chapter is the grey prediction research on ecological security level in the Three Gorges Reservoir area east of Chongqing. The construction of GM (1,1) grey system forecast model based on the calculation results of ecological security level, pressure security level, state safety level, response security level2001-2011in Three Gorges Reservoir Area in Chongqing. This model is used to make long-term prediction of ecological security level, pressure security level, state safety level and response security level. Results show that, until2017, ecological safety, pressure security, state security level and response security level are all grown to level Ⅳ or above. Although there are still a few counties have a small increase, the regional ecological security situation is moving in the right direction. Until2017, the gap of ecological security situation between counties in the study area is gradually widening.
The sixth chapter is the study of ecological security countermeasures. According to the ecological security assessment and the prediction results ecological security countermeasures such as improving rules and regulations, optimizing administration system, strengthening the government's macro-control functions, establishing a market-oriented mechanism, encouraging research in science and technology related to ecological security and public participation. These countermeasures will provide scientific support system for improving regional ecological security and propelling the sustainable development.
The seventh chapter is the conclusion and prospect which has summarized the conclusion of this article and possible innovation points.
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