信息化与工业化融合的影响因素研究
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摘要
信息革命重塑世界,带给全球经济繁荣,尤其是成为西方发达国家发展的重要手段。利用信息技术推动经济和社会的全面发展成为信息社会研究的重要领域。中国处于工业化后期,信息化和工业化的融合发展具有重要的战略意义。现有的两化融合研究较多地集中在后发优势理论、比较优势理论、新型工业化和信息化领域等方面,没有系统的将两者结合起来。本文将系统构建全新的理论框架作为切入点,并在此基础上对影响因素展开实证研究。
本文以信息技术范式、ICT4D、技术经济范式、产业融合理论作为研究的理论基础。信息技术革命对经济社会所产生的区域时间的影响差异来源于信息技术范式发展过程中所经历的不同阶段。信息化融合发展是信息技术范式发展的新阶段,在这个阶段中信息社会构建进入ICT4D2.0阶段,这需要新的技术方法和知识的整合,ICT4D2.0提供了一个以需求驱动为特征的经济社会全面发展的手段。技术经济范式理论表明经济的发展是内在的技术革命以及技术经济范式在发挥作用,每一次技术的创新性破坏产生了新的产品产业和基础设施以及新的组织原则。信息社会的发展遵循技术经济范式的发展阶段性和周期性,并遵循固定的准则。技术经济范式所具有周期性表明信息化与工业化融合具有阶段性的特征。产业融合理论认为融合依次会经历技术融合、市场融合等阶段,技术融合导致产品-市场的组合并最终会导向产业融合和经济融合,信息化与工业化的融合可以用三维的模型表示,在信息化维、工业化维和融合维的作用下共同发展,提炼出信息化与工业化融合模型。
本文分析了国内外两化融合的推进机制和发展经验,并在江苏省两化融合调研的基础上得出两化融合的发展经验。在对两化融合支撑环境的分析中,着重分析了信息产业、创新保障以及信息资源开发战略对两化融合的支撑作用。在前面理论分析的基础上,从信息化与工业化融合内涵的角度出发,提炼出两化融合的影响因素模型。采用Logistic模型、虚拟虚拟变量模型和脉冲响应分析对我国的信息技术范式的阶段性进行实证研究,Logistic分析表明我国处于信息技术范式的转折点,信息化的手段发生了改变,信息技术的扩散效应减弱,必须同工业需求相结合共同发展。通过信息化投入和信息化需求共同作用的向量自回归模型可以分析看出,需求拉动作用成为经济发展的主要力量,这也为两化融合提供了理论依据。宏观区域层面的影响因分析,运用结构方程组和向量自回归分析了影响因素之间的静态和动态的影响关系,分析表明传统的发展方式难以支撑经济的发展,必须通过推动数字经济进程尤其通过信息技术提升产品和装备的技术含量才是最为有效的手段。微观层面的分析在借鉴Sambamurthy和Zmud模型基础上结合Barua模型,构建企业两化融合的关键要素模型以及评价指标。运用定量分析的方法,在对评价指标进行主成分分析基础上,得出两化融合的重点影响因素：利用社会网络分析方法,分析影响因素之间的关系。
本文最后对研究结果进行了总结,两化融合的阶段性分析表明,两化融合遵循信息技术范式的发展阶段性。我国的两化融合处于信息技术范式的协调期,信息化发展策略进入以需求和应用拉动为特征的ICT4D2.0阶段,尤其是加大企业智能化设备改造和智能装备产品的研发。加大政策引导,鼓励创新,推动信息技术同实体经济的结合,并关注信息化过程中可能引发的数字鸿沟问题。宏观区域两化融合影响因素分析表明,数字经济进程和信息化支撑环境建设对两化融合产生较大影响,如城市化率与信息技能之间、外贸依存度与信息服务和装备智能化程度存在互相影响关系,发展云计算、物联网等高端信息技术是两化深度融合的重大机遇。微观企业两化融合影响因素分析表明,企业研发信息化、智能化生产装备和供应链协同对两化融合的影响较大,而这离不开规范的信息化应用制度以及大量信息化的资金投入,尤其表现为智能化生产设备和数字化装备领域应用需要大量的资金和复合型人才。通过典型应用企业信息化成功经验和行业知识在企业间的推广,可以很好地带动全行业企业的两化融合工作。最后本文根据前面影响因素分析的结果,提出政策建议,阐明本研究的创新点、研究局限和未来研究方向。
Information revolution reshaping the world and is promising to bring prosperity all over the world.The information technology for development become an important field of the information society research, informatization become an important means of economic development. China in the phase of late-industrialization,development convergence of informatization and industrialization has important strategic significance. The previous research is more focused on late-developing advantage theory, comparative advantage theory, new industrialization and informatization, short of systematic analysis.This dissertation starts from the new theoretical framework, and extends to the empirical research based on affecting factors and related issues.
In this paper, information technology paradigm, ICT4D, techno-economic paradigm, industry convergence theory as the theoretical basis of the study.The different phase of the information technology paradigm causes the diversification in the ICT impact on different period and region.Informatization, convergence is a new stage of information technology paradigm.Use of information and communication technologies for development is moving to its next phase. This will require new technologies, new approaches to innovation, new intellectual integration. The phase change from information and communication technologies for international development (ICT4D)1.0to ICT4D2.0presents opportunities for economy and society development,the transition from1.0to2.0have to be demand driven. The need to recognize the whole planet as the economic space is an inherent feature of the present technological revolution and its techno-economic paradigm. Each of these Schumpeterian gales of creative destruction has articulated a constellation of new inputs products and industries, one or more new infrastructures, including all-pervasive generic technologies and organizational principles applicable both to the setting up of the new firms and industries and to the modernization of most of the existing economy. Great Surges in economic development, common-sense innovation principles. Stage of the development of the information society follows the development of the techno-economic paradigm.The techno-economic paradigm is cyclical, which also shows that information technology and industrialization stage characteristics. convergence upon the assumption of an idealized time series of events, with industry convergence evolving when scientific disciplines, technologies and markets have converged, technology convergence leading to new product-market combinations will emerge leading to market convergence and the process will be finalized by industry convergence, then leading to economy convergence. The convergence of informatization and industrialization can be can be described as known a the three-dimension mode of information technology dimension, industrialization dimension and convergence dimension,built the model from the above perspective.
The paper analyzes the propulsion mechanisms and development experience of the informatization and industrialization domestic and international, analyzes development experience in the on the basis of investigation of enterprise of in Jiangsu Province. The dissertation analyzes the information industry, innovation, and information resources development strategy for the integration of the informatization and industrialization convergence as supporting role in the convergence supporting environment. On the basis of previous theoretical analysis, practice experience and the essence of the convergence of informatization and industrialization, this paper refines theoretical model of the affecting factors, and conducts an empirical analysis on the phase of China information technology paradigm with Logistic model, virtual variable model and impulse response analysis. Logistic analysis shows that China is at a turning point of the information technology paradigm, the means of information has changed, the information diffusion effects rendering weakened, must be combined with industrial demand to promote the economy development. Through analysis with information technology supply and demand model with vector auto regression shows that demand drive can be seen as the main force of economic development, which also provides a theoretical basis for the integration of the informatization and industrialization. The impact of factors on macro-regional level analysis starts with the use of structural equations and vector autoregression analysis on the static and dynamic relationship of the affecting factors, the traditional mode of development is difficult to support economic development, promoting the digital economy and using information technology to enhance the products and equipment is the most effective means of development. Combining the Sambamurthy Zmud model and the Barua model, the paper builds a key elements model and evaluation index of enterprise information and industrialization convergence.By using quantitative and statistical methods with principal components of evaluation indicators, the disseration identifies the key factors affecting the convergence of enterprise informatization and industrialization and analyzes the relationship between the key factors.with social network analysis.
The paper starts with stage analysis of convergence of informatization and industrialization and shows that it follows the development stage of the information technology paradigm, and it is in the phase of synergy period of information technology paradigm, development strategy into ICT4D2.0stage characterized as the the needs and applications pulling features, especially it needs to increase R&D investment in the enterprise intelligent equipment and products,strengthen the guidance of policies, encourage innovation, promote the integration of information technology and real economy and pay more attention to the digital divide which may arise in the informatization. Macro analysis on regional convergence shows that digital economy and environment of informatization have great influence on the convergence of informatization and industrilization. For example the rate of urbanization is related to the information skills and foreign trade degree of dependency has a close relationship with the use of information service and intelligence facility. It's a great opportunity to develop the convergence with the high-end information technology such as cloud computing and internet of things. And the micro analysis at the enterprise level shows that the important factors for the convergence of informatization and industrialization are the infromatization of R&D, the intellectualization of production equipments and the coordination of supply chain which depend on standardized information system policies and large amounts of capital investment, especially the intellectualization of production equipments and products depend on the investment and inter-disciplinary talents. By sharing successful experience on the application of information technology and industry knowledge between enterprises can well promote the development of the convergence of informatization and industrialization in the whole industry.Finally, according to the affecting factors analysis, puts forward practical recommendation, research limitation and suggestions for further studies are supplied.
本文以信息技术范式、ICT4D、技术经济范式、产业融合理论作为研究的理论基础。信息技术革命对经济社会所产生的区域时间的影响差异来源于信息技术范式发展过程中所经历的不同阶段。信息化融合发展是信息技术范式发展的新阶段,在这个阶段中信息社会构建进入ICT4D2.0阶段,这需要新的技术方法和知识的整合,ICT4D2.0提供了一个以需求驱动为特征的经济社会全面发展的手段。技术经济范式理论表明经济的发展是内在的技术革命以及技术经济范式在发挥作用,每一次技术的创新性破坏产生了新的产品产业和基础设施以及新的组织原则。信息社会的发展遵循技术经济范式的发展阶段性和周期性,并遵循固定的准则。技术经济范式所具有周期性表明信息化与工业化融合具有阶段性的特征。产业融合理论认为融合依次会经历技术融合、市场融合等阶段,技术融合导致产品-市场的组合并最终会导向产业融合和经济融合,信息化与工业化的融合可以用三维的模型表示,在信息化维、工业化维和融合维的作用下共同发展,提炼出信息化与工业化融合模型。
本文分析了国内外两化融合的推进机制和发展经验,并在江苏省两化融合调研的基础上得出两化融合的发展经验。在对两化融合支撑环境的分析中,着重分析了信息产业、创新保障以及信息资源开发战略对两化融合的支撑作用。在前面理论分析的基础上,从信息化与工业化融合内涵的角度出发,提炼出两化融合的影响因素模型。采用Logistic模型、虚拟虚拟变量模型和脉冲响应分析对我国的信息技术范式的阶段性进行实证研究,Logistic分析表明我国处于信息技术范式的转折点,信息化的手段发生了改变,信息技术的扩散效应减弱,必须同工业需求相结合共同发展。通过信息化投入和信息化需求共同作用的向量自回归模型可以分析看出,需求拉动作用成为经济发展的主要力量,这也为两化融合提供了理论依据。宏观区域层面的影响因分析,运用结构方程组和向量自回归分析了影响因素之间的静态和动态的影响关系,分析表明传统的发展方式难以支撑经济的发展,必须通过推动数字经济进程尤其通过信息技术提升产品和装备的技术含量才是最为有效的手段。微观层面的分析在借鉴Sambamurthy和Zmud模型基础上结合Barua模型,构建企业两化融合的关键要素模型以及评价指标。运用定量分析的方法,在对评价指标进行主成分分析基础上,得出两化融合的重点影响因素：利用社会网络分析方法,分析影响因素之间的关系。
本文最后对研究结果进行了总结,两化融合的阶段性分析表明,两化融合遵循信息技术范式的发展阶段性。我国的两化融合处于信息技术范式的协调期,信息化发展策略进入以需求和应用拉动为特征的ICT4D2.0阶段,尤其是加大企业智能化设备改造和智能装备产品的研发。加大政策引导,鼓励创新,推动信息技术同实体经济的结合,并关注信息化过程中可能引发的数字鸿沟问题。宏观区域两化融合影响因素分析表明,数字经济进程和信息化支撑环境建设对两化融合产生较大影响,如城市化率与信息技能之间、外贸依存度与信息服务和装备智能化程度存在互相影响关系,发展云计算、物联网等高端信息技术是两化深度融合的重大机遇。微观企业两化融合影响因素分析表明,企业研发信息化、智能化生产装备和供应链协同对两化融合的影响较大,而这离不开规范的信息化应用制度以及大量信息化的资金投入,尤其表现为智能化生产设备和数字化装备领域应用需要大量的资金和复合型人才。通过典型应用企业信息化成功经验和行业知识在企业间的推广,可以很好地带动全行业企业的两化融合工作。最后本文根据前面影响因素分析的结果,提出政策建议,阐明本研究的创新点、研究局限和未来研究方向。
Information revolution reshaping the world and is promising to bring prosperity all over the world.The information technology for development become an important field of the information society research, informatization become an important means of economic development. China in the phase of late-industrialization,development convergence of informatization and industrialization has important strategic significance. The previous research is more focused on late-developing advantage theory, comparative advantage theory, new industrialization and informatization, short of systematic analysis.This dissertation starts from the new theoretical framework, and extends to the empirical research based on affecting factors and related issues.
In this paper, information technology paradigm, ICT4D, techno-economic paradigm, industry convergence theory as the theoretical basis of the study.The different phase of the information technology paradigm causes the diversification in the ICT impact on different period and region.Informatization, convergence is a new stage of information technology paradigm.Use of information and communication technologies for development is moving to its next phase. This will require new technologies, new approaches to innovation, new intellectual integration. The phase change from information and communication technologies for international development (ICT4D)1.0to ICT4D2.0presents opportunities for economy and society development,the transition from1.0to2.0have to be demand driven. The need to recognize the whole planet as the economic space is an inherent feature of the present technological revolution and its techno-economic paradigm. Each of these Schumpeterian gales of creative destruction has articulated a constellation of new inputs products and industries, one or more new infrastructures, including all-pervasive generic technologies and organizational principles applicable both to the setting up of the new firms and industries and to the modernization of most of the existing economy. Great Surges in economic development, common-sense innovation principles. Stage of the development of the information society follows the development of the techno-economic paradigm.The techno-economic paradigm is cyclical, which also shows that information technology and industrialization stage characteristics. convergence upon the assumption of an idealized time series of events, with industry convergence evolving when scientific disciplines, technologies and markets have converged, technology convergence leading to new product-market combinations will emerge leading to market convergence and the process will be finalized by industry convergence, then leading to economy convergence. The convergence of informatization and industrialization can be can be described as known a the three-dimension mode of information technology dimension, industrialization dimension and convergence dimension,built the model from the above perspective.
The paper analyzes the propulsion mechanisms and development experience of the informatization and industrialization domestic and international, analyzes development experience in the on the basis of investigation of enterprise of in Jiangsu Province. The dissertation analyzes the information industry, innovation, and information resources development strategy for the integration of the informatization and industrialization convergence as supporting role in the convergence supporting environment. On the basis of previous theoretical analysis, practice experience and the essence of the convergence of informatization and industrialization, this paper refines theoretical model of the affecting factors, and conducts an empirical analysis on the phase of China information technology paradigm with Logistic model, virtual variable model and impulse response analysis. Logistic analysis shows that China is at a turning point of the information technology paradigm, the means of information has changed, the information diffusion effects rendering weakened, must be combined with industrial demand to promote the economy development. Through analysis with information technology supply and demand model with vector auto regression shows that demand drive can be seen as the main force of economic development, which also provides a theoretical basis for the integration of the informatization and industrialization. The impact of factors on macro-regional level analysis starts with the use of structural equations and vector autoregression analysis on the static and dynamic relationship of the affecting factors, the traditional mode of development is difficult to support economic development, promoting the digital economy and using information technology to enhance the products and equipment is the most effective means of development. Combining the Sambamurthy Zmud model and the Barua model, the paper builds a key elements model and evaluation index of enterprise information and industrialization convergence.By using quantitative and statistical methods with principal components of evaluation indicators, the disseration identifies the key factors affecting the convergence of enterprise informatization and industrialization and analyzes the relationship between the key factors.with social network analysis.
The paper starts with stage analysis of convergence of informatization and industrialization and shows that it follows the development stage of the information technology paradigm, and it is in the phase of synergy period of information technology paradigm, development strategy into ICT4D2.0stage characterized as the the needs and applications pulling features, especially it needs to increase R&D investment in the enterprise intelligent equipment and products,strengthen the guidance of policies, encourage innovation, promote the integration of information technology and real economy and pay more attention to the digital divide which may arise in the informatization. Macro analysis on regional convergence shows that digital economy and environment of informatization have great influence on the convergence of informatization and industrilization. For example the rate of urbanization is related to the information skills and foreign trade degree of dependency has a close relationship with the use of information service and intelligence facility. It's a great opportunity to develop the convergence with the high-end information technology such as cloud computing and internet of things. And the micro analysis at the enterprise level shows that the important factors for the convergence of informatization and industrialization are the infromatization of R&D, the intellectualization of production equipments and the coordination of supply chain which depend on standardized information system policies and large amounts of capital investment, especially the intellectualization of production equipments and products depend on the investment and inter-disciplinary talents. By sharing successful experience on the application of information technology and industry knowledge between enterprises can well promote the development of the convergence of informatization and industrialization in the whole industry.Finally, according to the affecting factors analysis, puts forward practical recommendation, research limitation and suggestions for further studies are supplied.
引文
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