面向全面小康社会的城市居住水平发展评价研究
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摘要
提高城市的居住水平,是建设全面小康社会的重要内容之一。近年来,我国城市整体居住水平得到了很大的提高,正在向全面小康水平迈进。然而城市间差异大,城市内部发展不均衡,以及部分城市居住水平出现的倒退,都制约着城市总体居住水平的提高和居住水平全面小康的实现。如何实现城市居住水平全面、协调、均衡的发展,对提高人民的生活质量以及全面建设小康社会都具有重要的意义。为此本文在界定城市居住水平内涵、明确全面小康社会对居住水平发展要求和确定城市居住水平发展目标的基础上,采用理论研究和实证分析相结合、动态分析和比较分析的研究方法,综合运用投影寻踪模型、灰色理论、模糊物元理论、主成分分析、支持向量机、偏最小二乘回归等多学科知识,结合我国城市居住水平发展的实际特点,对我国城市居住水平发展进行了深入和细致的研究。
研究界定了全面小康社会和城市居住水平的内涵,并深入剖析了全面小康社会对城市居住水平的要求;结合各国城市居住水平发展的经验和历程,确定了城市居住水平发展阶段,分析了我国城市居住水平发展的必然性;结合我国国情和城市居住水平发展目标,明确了城市居住水平发展的理论基础和所要应用的评价方法原理,建立了城市居住水平发展评价理论分析框架。
结合城市居住水平内涵和城市居住水平所处发展阶段,并以全面建设小康社会的居住目标体系为基础,确定了城市居住水平评价指标体系;采用基于RAGA的投影寻踪模型评价了我国35个大中城市2003-2008年间的居住水平,从动、静相结合的角度揭示了城市居住水平的变化过程及差异格局;采用加权变异系数和Thiele指数研究了城市间居住水平的差异和变化趋势,并运用GRA方法分析了城市居住水平的影响因素;采用马尔可夫链检验了我国城市居住水平的俱乐部发展趋势。
确定了城市全面小康居住水平指标标准值,采用多指标综合评价法分析了35个大中城市2003-2008年全面小康居住水平的实现程度;确定了城市居住水平发展的预警标准,采用了PCA结合模糊物元方法,判断了35个大中城市2003-2008年间预警指数,指出了居住水平发展出现负向演替和发展缓慢的城市和出现不良发展趋势的指标。
以全面小康居住水平为标杆,建立了城市居住水平比率离差系数最小化协调度模型,并以此为基础,评价了35个大中城市居住水平子系统间的协调度;以35个大中城市居住水平的协调度评价结果为基础,建立了城市居住水平协调度预测模型;建立了协调-发展二维综合评价矩阵,指出了城市居住水平的发展路径。
最后针对评价结果,提出了实施差异化发展策略,持续监测居住水平发展进程以及合理规划、均衡发展等面向全面小康社会的城市居住水平发展对策建议。
本文研究了城市居住水平发展评价的有关理论和方法,在一定程度上弥补了当前城市居住水平发展理论研究上的不足,对于提高城市居住水平发展的可操作性,解决城市居住水平发展中的瓶颈问题,促进城市居住水平全面、协调、均衡发展和又快又好地实现居住水平的全面小康,具有一定的理论和实践意义。
Improving urban residential level is one of the important content in building an overall well-off society. In recent years, urban residential level has been improved greatly in china and been going forward the overall well-off target. However, the large difference of residential level among our cities, the imbalanced development in inner city and the setback appearing in many cities in their evolution, all which will influence on the improvement of the overall residential level and achieving the overall well-off across the country. To study how to urge urban residential level overall, harmonious and balanced development, which has great significance to improve life quality of people and build the overall well-off society. Therefore, based on the concrete connotation of urban residential level, the requirement to urban residential level of the overall well-off society and the development aim of urban residential level, this paper makes deeply and thorough study by using a lot of methodologies into the actual of urban residential level development. A lot of methodologies include theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, dynamic analysis, comparative analysis and so on.
The research defines an overall well-off society, the concrete connotation of urban residential level, and deeply analyzes the requirement to urban residential level of the overall well-off society. According to the experiences of the development process of the international cities, this paper divides three phases and analyzes the inevitability of the development of urban residential level in china. By considering our realistic national situation and the development aim of urban residential level, the author defines the theories foundation and evaluation methods and builds theoretical analysis framework of this paper which lays the foundation for follow-up study.
By taking the residential objectives system of the overall well-off society for reference, this paper establishes evaluation index system of urban residential level based on the actual development situation and the actual developing stage of urban residential level. This paper evaluates the general residential level of 35 sample cities from 2003 to 2008 by using project pursuit method based on RAGA, and analyses evolving processes and difference patterns of urban residential level from the perspective of combining static and dynamic. This paper points out the difference of residential level among the cities by using weighted variation coefficient and Thiele index, and analyzes the influence factors by using GRA. This paper testes the club development trend of urban residential level by using Markov chain in china.
This paper establishes the standard values of residential level index of the overall well-off and analyzes the realization degree of 35 sample cities from 2003 to 2008 by using mult-index comprehensive evaluation method. This paper establishes the forewarning standard, judges evolving process of the forewarning index of each city from 2003 to 2008 by combining PCA and fuzzy-element method, provides early warning to the cities that develop slowly and inversely and points out the primary limiting factors and the index that appears negative trend.
This paper, taking the residential level of the overall well-off as benchmarking, creates the ratio coordination degree model, and evaluates urban residential level by using the model. On the basis of the results, this paper builds the prediction model. By creating two-dimension matrix of coordination degree and development degree, this paper points out the development path of urban residential level.
Finally, according to the result of the evaluation, this paper puts forward some advices and countermeasures to improve urban residential level orienting to the overall well-off, including Implement Differentiation Strategy, Monitoring Continuously the Development Process of Urban Residential Level and Reasonable Planning and Balance Development.
Researching on relative theory and methods of urban residential level development evaluation are of advantages to fill the gaps in recent study to some extent, to improve operability of urban residential level development, to resolve the bottleneck problems of development, to promote its overall, coordination and balanced development and achieve the aim of the overall well-off of residential level.
研究界定了全面小康社会和城市居住水平的内涵,并深入剖析了全面小康社会对城市居住水平的要求;结合各国城市居住水平发展的经验和历程,确定了城市居住水平发展阶段,分析了我国城市居住水平发展的必然性;结合我国国情和城市居住水平发展目标,明确了城市居住水平发展的理论基础和所要应用的评价方法原理,建立了城市居住水平发展评价理论分析框架。
结合城市居住水平内涵和城市居住水平所处发展阶段,并以全面建设小康社会的居住目标体系为基础,确定了城市居住水平评价指标体系;采用基于RAGA的投影寻踪模型评价了我国35个大中城市2003-2008年间的居住水平,从动、静相结合的角度揭示了城市居住水平的变化过程及差异格局;采用加权变异系数和Thiele指数研究了城市间居住水平的差异和变化趋势,并运用GRA方法分析了城市居住水平的影响因素;采用马尔可夫链检验了我国城市居住水平的俱乐部发展趋势。
确定了城市全面小康居住水平指标标准值,采用多指标综合评价法分析了35个大中城市2003-2008年全面小康居住水平的实现程度;确定了城市居住水平发展的预警标准,采用了PCA结合模糊物元方法,判断了35个大中城市2003-2008年间预警指数,指出了居住水平发展出现负向演替和发展缓慢的城市和出现不良发展趋势的指标。
以全面小康居住水平为标杆,建立了城市居住水平比率离差系数最小化协调度模型,并以此为基础,评价了35个大中城市居住水平子系统间的协调度;以35个大中城市居住水平的协调度评价结果为基础,建立了城市居住水平协调度预测模型;建立了协调-发展二维综合评价矩阵,指出了城市居住水平的发展路径。
最后针对评价结果,提出了实施差异化发展策略,持续监测居住水平发展进程以及合理规划、均衡发展等面向全面小康社会的城市居住水平发展对策建议。
本文研究了城市居住水平发展评价的有关理论和方法,在一定程度上弥补了当前城市居住水平发展理论研究上的不足,对于提高城市居住水平发展的可操作性,解决城市居住水平发展中的瓶颈问题,促进城市居住水平全面、协调、均衡发展和又快又好地实现居住水平的全面小康,具有一定的理论和实践意义。
Improving urban residential level is one of the important content in building an overall well-off society. In recent years, urban residential level has been improved greatly in china and been going forward the overall well-off target. However, the large difference of residential level among our cities, the imbalanced development in inner city and the setback appearing in many cities in their evolution, all which will influence on the improvement of the overall residential level and achieving the overall well-off across the country. To study how to urge urban residential level overall, harmonious and balanced development, which has great significance to improve life quality of people and build the overall well-off society. Therefore, based on the concrete connotation of urban residential level, the requirement to urban residential level of the overall well-off society and the development aim of urban residential level, this paper makes deeply and thorough study by using a lot of methodologies into the actual of urban residential level development. A lot of methodologies include theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, dynamic analysis, comparative analysis and so on.
The research defines an overall well-off society, the concrete connotation of urban residential level, and deeply analyzes the requirement to urban residential level of the overall well-off society. According to the experiences of the development process of the international cities, this paper divides three phases and analyzes the inevitability of the development of urban residential level in china. By considering our realistic national situation and the development aim of urban residential level, the author defines the theories foundation and evaluation methods and builds theoretical analysis framework of this paper which lays the foundation for follow-up study.
By taking the residential objectives system of the overall well-off society for reference, this paper establishes evaluation index system of urban residential level based on the actual development situation and the actual developing stage of urban residential level. This paper evaluates the general residential level of 35 sample cities from 2003 to 2008 by using project pursuit method based on RAGA, and analyses evolving processes and difference patterns of urban residential level from the perspective of combining static and dynamic. This paper points out the difference of residential level among the cities by using weighted variation coefficient and Thiele index, and analyzes the influence factors by using GRA. This paper testes the club development trend of urban residential level by using Markov chain in china.
This paper establishes the standard values of residential level index of the overall well-off and analyzes the realization degree of 35 sample cities from 2003 to 2008 by using mult-index comprehensive evaluation method. This paper establishes the forewarning standard, judges evolving process of the forewarning index of each city from 2003 to 2008 by combining PCA and fuzzy-element method, provides early warning to the cities that develop slowly and inversely and points out the primary limiting factors and the index that appears negative trend.
This paper, taking the residential level of the overall well-off as benchmarking, creates the ratio coordination degree model, and evaluates urban residential level by using the model. On the basis of the results, this paper builds the prediction model. By creating two-dimension matrix of coordination degree and development degree, this paper points out the development path of urban residential level.
Finally, according to the result of the evaluation, this paper puts forward some advices and countermeasures to improve urban residential level orienting to the overall well-off, including Implement Differentiation Strategy, Monitoring Continuously the Development Process of Urban Residential Level and Reasonable Planning and Balance Development.
Researching on relative theory and methods of urban residential level development evaluation are of advantages to fill the gaps in recent study to some extent, to improve operability of urban residential level development, to resolve the bottleneck problems of development, to promote its overall, coordination and balanced development and achieve the aim of the overall well-off of residential level.
引文
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