能力偏误、教育溢价与我国工资收入差异
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摘要
自20世纪80年代以来,伴随着我国经济的高增长,中国工资收入差距在地区间、城乡间、行业间乃至家庭、个体间持续扩大成为一个日渐突出的问题。缩小收入差距特别是工资差距作为重振内需市场、破解城乡二元结构瓶颈、化解我国经济增长深层次矛盾的重要途径,对经济增长方式转变和实现可持续增长具有重要意义。党的十七大、十七届四中全会、五中全会也都明确提出要“合理调整收入分配,研究制定收入分配改革方案,努力扭转收入差距扩大趋势”。
英国经济学家米德认为教育是影响个体收入的一种重要投资,它对收入分配具有深远的间接影响。美国经济学家萨缪尔森也指出,在走向平等的道路上,没有比教育更伟大的步骤。国内外大量研究表明：不论是发达国家还是发展中国家,受教育程度不同是导致收入差距扩大的重要原因之一。
党和国家历来高度重视教育,十七大上提出“优先发展教育,建设人力资源强国”的战略部署,把人才战略上升为国家重点战略。教育事业取得了长足发展,截止2010年底,全国2856个县(市、区)全部普及九年义务教育,高中阶段毛入学率达82.5%,高等教育毛入学率达26.5%。城镇地区高中阶段教育基本普及,但农村高中教育普及率2007年仅为50%左右。因而在我国各级教育快速发展的当代,在思考教育在我国工资收入差异中的作用机制时,我们不仅关注城镇个体是否接受了大学及其以上的教育程度,我们同时关注对于农村个体而言是否接受了高中阶段教育。
自上个世纪90年代末期,以《面向21世纪教育行动振兴计划》、《关于深化教育改革全面推进素质教育的决定》以及《中华人民共和国高等教育法》等相关政策为标志点,我国各级教育特别是高等教育迅速扩张。普通高等教育招生从1978年的40.2万人,增长到1998年108.4万人,年均增长速度8.5%,特别的,1999年本专科招生数一跃上升到159.7万人,较上年增长47.32%。之后以年均16.97%的速度高速增长,截止到2010年,普通高等学校招生数达661.7551万人,如果考虑网络、高等学校本专科招生数以及研究生招生数,2010年招生规模总计达1090.3642万人,在校生数总计高达3374.8176万人,占全国18-22周岁人口比为27.81%,中国进入世界公认的高等教育大众化时期。
伴随高等教育的持续扩张,高等教育和劳动力市场的关系变得日益紧密：随着大学生供给急剧增长,劳动力中具有大学学位的比例逐渐增长,然而在全国失业人员中具有大学学位的比例在急剧增长,教育投资向工资收入溢价转化的路径存在扭曲。现象背后的根源可能在于：首先,伴随着高等教育扩张,高等教育资源匹配滞后以及高等教育经费投入不足,导致教育质量以及边际学生质量的下降,降低了教育投资的产出效率；其次,由于高等教育扩张以及国家助学贷款等金融政策的支持,使大学生的能力分布发生结构变化。我国自1999年6月开始实施国家助学贷款政策,使得在扩张前能力较高但家庭经济条件差的学生,扩张后进入大学了,同时也可能使相对于以前大学生能力较低的新大学生也上大学了,因此,在高等教育扩张前后,大学教育组和高中教育组的能力分布将发生改变,这样大学毕业生工资相对于高中毕业生的变化中有一部分是由于学生质量和能力解释的部分,而不能全部认为是溢价部分。最后,由于计算机信息技术以及离岸外包等技术变迁,导致大学生供给与需求发生结构性矛盾。
本文正是在我国收入差距持续扩大、各级教育特别是高等教育迅猛扩张的背景下,基于大学生供需结构变化和能力分布变化的视角,在试图控制能力偏误后准确测度城镇大学教育溢价以及农村高中阶段教育溢价,深层挖掘溢价变动原因。因而本研究不仅对发展教育经济学、劳动经济学以及工资决定理论具有重要的借鉴意义；而且为个体的教育选择、对我国大学生就业市场的政策设计提供扎实的理论指导；更为政府、教育部门优化教育资源配置提供有价值的决策参考。
本着“以问题为导向,让数据去说话,以前沿计量方法为工具,以政策服务为宗旨”的原则,本文共分八章,各章具体研究内容及研究方法如下：
第一章：导论。详细介绍本文的研究背景、提出要研究的问题,阐述研究这一问题的理论意义及实际应用价值所在；对研究内容、研究思路、研究范围、研究方法、论文结构、本文可能的创新和不足等一一进行总体说明。
第二章：相关概念界定、与本文相关的理论基础以及相关文献综述。本章具体对本文涉及的关键概念：能力及能力偏误；教育与教育溢价以及工资及工资收入差异进行界定,阐明教育与工资决定的理论模型、综述国内外研究现状以及对本文的启示。
第三章：高等教育对我国工资收入结构长期演变的贡献——基于泰尔指数测算及分解分析。本章基于CHNS (China Health and Nutrition Survey)系统测算了1989年至2009年20多年跨度时期,我国个体工资收入差异演变历程,基于泰尔指数分解技术详细描绘了我国工资差异在地区间、性别间、同生群间、职业间以及部门间差异现状及变动趋势,进而从上述群组再到大学学位的二阶段乃至多阶段分解,多角度、多维度地解析大学教育对形成我国工资差距扩大过程中的贡献以深刻理解大学教育的重要性、教育扩张的急迫性与必要性。
第四章：基于倾向得分匹配模型我国城镇大学教育溢价的测度。考虑到微观数据的测量误差、样本选择偏差、教育溢价的异质性以及基于泰尔指数分解技术的局限性,本章将运用先进的微观计量模型方法,基于反事实框架,运用倾向得分匹配模型,运用CHIP (Chinese Household Income Project Survey)数据,对中国城镇大学教育溢价进行准确的度量。之所以选择该数据集,首先因为该时期对应我国高等教育的大幅扩张前,通过该数据我们可以测度高等教育扩张前我国大学教育溢价状况。更重要的是其包含丰富的家庭背景资料,便于控制家庭遗传因素以及家庭生存环境因素对个体能力差异的影响,进而可以更准确的构造工资的反事实,并且在具体匹配估计时,为了结果的稳健性,我们分别选择小时工资、日工资、月工资以及年工资作为结果变量,匹配方法综合考虑了核匹配估计、最近距离匹配以及不同半径匹配估计技术,通过不同指标设计不同方法匹配寻找我国大学教育溢价的准确估计。
第五章：高等教育扩张对我国大学教育溢价的影响——基于干预-控制框架的实证研究。我国高等教育迅猛扩张发生在1999年,扩张后大学溢价演变规律如何?不同的工资分位数组大学教育溢价变动差异如何?回答这些问题需要扩张后的而且含有丰富家庭背景资料的详实的微观数据集,CGSS (China general social survey)2006年的微观调查数据为我们的研究提供了可能。本章利用最新可用的2006年的数据,通过考虑不同的出生群,将高等教育扩张所引致的溢价冲击效应描绘出来。如果将1999年高等教育扩张看成覆盖全国的实验,本章将在干预-控制框架下基于双重差分模型(difference-in-differences model,简称DID)以及分位数估计技术挖掘这次实验带来的冲击影响,并且充分考虑到样本选择偏差以及教育变量的内生性,以相对准确的解析大学溢价随同生群、随时期变动方向及变动幅度。从大学生供给视角实证给出了大学溢价变化的证据。
第六章：技能偏态、大学教育溢价：基于中国样本的实证研究。本章基于我国扩招后的宏观数据,从大学生需求视角挖掘大学教育溢价变动的原因。借鉴国际大学教育溢价和技术变迁的相关经验论证,重点回答我国目前国家层面的技术特征是否呈现技能偏态特性?并且充分考虑我国地区空间相关性,先从理论上阐明资本技术互补假设的内涵,运用总量二级CES生产函数,实施空间面板估计技术,分别估算空间误差模型和空间自回归模型,实证检验了我国技能偏态性技术变迁的存在性,进而对我国大学教育溢价的上升从大学生需求视角找到了令人信服的证据。对于我国目前大学生就业难、失业率高的事实则从能力分布的角度进行了经济学解释。
第七章：技能高中还是普通高中?—中国农村学生教育选择研究。考虑到我国农村劳动力的教育程度大多停留在初高中阶段,高中阶段教育将是实现农村进步的关键因素,具有高中阶段教育程度的劳动力将是中国农村发展的中坚力量。本章将目光聚焦于我国农村样本,同样基于CHIP数据在充分考虑在微观数据样本选择偏差和教育变量内生性基础上相对准确的测度了我国高中阶段教育溢价,并且分别估算技能高中、普通高中教育溢价,以期为中国农村学生教育选择提供切实的参考依据。
第八章：研究结论、政策性建议及未来展望。本章总结了全文的研究结论,进而从大学教育、农村高中教育视角提出相应的关于缩小收入差异的政策建议,最后对本研究将来进一步可能深入的前景进行展望。
Since the nineteen eighties, along with China's economic growth, People's income gap including gap in work wages has expanded to become a more prominent issue, which is mainly demonstrated among regions, between urban and rural areas, among industries and the families, even individuals. Therefor, Narrowing the income gap especially the wage disparity has important sense as revitalizing domestic market, breaking the bottleneck of dual economic structure in resolving the deep-seated contradictions in China's economic growth.This has great significance for realizing the transformation of the mode of economic growth and achieving sustainable growth. It has been put forward clearly to adjust income distribution reasonably, study and formulate the income distribution reform plan and try to reverse the trend of widening income gap in The Party Congress and plenary session of the seventeen Central Committee plenary meeting.
The British economist James Edward Meade believes that education is an important investment influencing the individual income, it makes profound indirect effects on income distribution. American economist Paul A. Samuelson also pointed out that, there is no more great steps than education to reducing income inequality. Hao Ru Yu who is a member of the CPPCC National Committee and the vice-president of Capital University of Economics and Business thinks that education is more important means than tax to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor! A large number of domestic and foreign researches show that:education is the one of the important reasons for the widening income gap whether in developed countries or developing countries.
Chinese government has always attached great importance to education:The strategic plan to "give priority to the development of education and turn China into a country rich in human resources has been proposed on the17th People's Congress.It shows that the talent strategy has rosed to be a key national strategy. Education has made considerable progress, by the end of2010, the nine-year compulsory education has been extensively spread in all of the country's2,856counties (cities, districts), the senior secondary gross enrollment rate reaches to82.5%and26.5%of the gross enrollment rate for higher education, high school education is basically universal in Urban areas, but the rural penetration of high school education in2007, only about50%. According to the Chinese Statistical Yearbook2011:There is the number of6,169,783ordinary junior high school graduates in rural areas, While there is only the number of567141people in the rural, the two account for less than10%. Even though there may be a very small part of the rural junior high school students admitted to the city high school or vocational high schools, technical schools, as well as secondary, yet the proportion of rural junior high school graduates continue their studies are extremely low.Thus with the rapid development of all-levels-education when we consider the mechanism of educational function on wage divide.we are not only concerned about the urban individual whether or not to accept University education but also for rural individual whether to accept a high school education.
Since the end of the90s of the last century, Marked by "21st Century Education revitalization plan of action"、"the decision on deepening education reform and promoting quality education" and "the People's Republic of China Higher Education law" and other relevant policies, all levels of education, especially higher education expands rapidly. Regular higher education enrollment has increased from40.2million in1978to108.4million in1998, an average annual growth rate is8.5%:Particularly, the junior college admissions in1999jumped up to159.7million, representing an increase of47.32%over last year. After high-speed growth rate of16.97%annually until2010, universities and colleges enrollment reached661.7551million the total number of the students reached2231.7929million if we consider network、Specialist、Undergraduate enrollment and graduate enrollment, by the end of2010, the Total enrollment reached to1090.3642million, the total number of students attached to3374.8176million, accounting for18-22years of age nationwide population ratio27.81%. According to American scholar Martin Castro criteria for the classification of the tertiary sector, China has entered the period of popularization of higher education recognized worldwide. The scale of higher education has more than Russia, India and the United States, to become the first in the world. And this expansion continues!
Accompanied by the continued expansion of higher education, the relationship between higher education and the labor market has become increasingly intimate. The reasons are as followed:First, with the rapid growth of college students supply, the proportion of the work force who have college academic degree has gradually increased, however at the same time, according to the relevant statistical data among all the unemployed people, the proportion with a university degree has also increased rapidly. So there is a distorted path for education investment to wage income premium. This phenomenon may cause by the followed reasons:First, along with the expansion of higher education, both higher education resource matching lagging and the higher education funding shortage, have led to the decline of the quality of education and the quality of marginal students, all of these will reduce the output efficiency of education investment; Secondly, due to the policy of higher educational expansion as well as the national student loans and other financial support, The structural ability distribution of college students changes. The expansion of higher education results in that more people can receive university education.since June1999, China began to implement the national student loan policy, so that those Who are with poor economic conditions and higher capacity become university students, while it is impossible before. At the same time those who are with lower capacity can also go to university, therefore, before and after the expansion of higher education, the ability distribution between the group with college degree and the group only with senior secondary degree has changed, so that the wages premium of college graduates relative to high school graduates changes partly due to student quality and ability, but not all considered to be premium part. Finally, due to the technological changes of the computer information technology, as well as offshore outsourcing, there has been structural contradictions between the college students supply and the demand.
Based on the background of China's income gap continued to widen, all levels of education, especially higher education Rapid expansion. In the case of structural changes in supply and demand for college students and changes of ability distribution, This paper tries to accurately measure urban university education premium (ie. The wage divide between the workforce who are with college degree and those who are with high school degree) and high school education in rural areas premium, Further excavate the reasons for premium changes deeply. Therefore, this study not only has important reference for the development of the economics of education, labor economics, and wage determination theory, but it can provide a solid theoretical guidance for educational choices for individuals and government to design employment market policy, optimizing the allocation of educational resources for the education sector to provide valuable decision-making reference.
Based on the principle of "problem-oriented, allowing the data to speak, making the Advanced measurement methods as a tool, for the purpose of service policy", the paper is divided into eight chapters, which is summarized as follows:
Chapter Ⅰ:Introduction:It introduces the Detailed research background, Proposes the problem needed to be solved Elaborates the theoretical significance and practical value Of studying the issue; This chapter launches into an elaborate explanation of research ideas, the scope of the study, research methods, thesis structure, possible innovation and lack.
Chapter Ⅱ:This chapter offers the definitions of some concepts-, Theory Model associated with this article and literature review. In particular, it covers the key concepts involved in this paper:the ability and ability bias; premium education and education, as well as wage and wage differences defined and Clarify the theoretical model associated with this article,summarized research status and the entry point of the paper.
Chapter Ⅲ:The contribution of higher education to the long-term evolution of wage income structure-based on estimates and decomposition of the Theil index analysis. This chapter is based on the system of CHNS (China Health and Nutrition Survey) which measured the span during the20years1989-2009, the evolution process of individual wage income differences of wage differentials based on Theil index decomposition technique, described in detail in the regional, gender, same cohort, occupational and sectoral differences in the status quo and change in trend, and then carried from the decomposition of the above-mentioned groups and then to the second stage of a college degree and even a multi-stage, multi-angle, multi-dimensional analytic university education expanded form of the wage gap contribution to the process of a deep understanding of the importance of university education, the urgency and necessity of the expansion of education.
Chapter Ⅳ:China's urban university education premium measure based on the propensity score matching model. Taking into account the measurement error of the micro data, sample selection bias, The education premium heterogeneity Theil index decomposition technology limitations, this chapter aims to use the advanced micro-econometric model using propensity score matching model, based on the framework of counterfactual and to use CHIP (Chinese Household Income Project Survey) the dataset2002data, to accurately measure Chinese urban university education premium. The reason why we Choose the data set Is that through the data we can measure University education premium status before the period of the expansion of China's higher education. More importantly, it contains rich family background information, and can be easy to control the impact On individual ability differences exerted by family genetic factors as well as the family survive environmental factor, in turn, it can more accurately construct counterfactual wage, and the estimate of the specific matching results robustness, we were selected hourly wage, daily wage, monthly salary and annual salary as a result of variable matching method can match the estimated considering the match from the match as well as different radius estimation techniques, and match the design of the different methods by different indicators looking for our university the education premium accurately estimated.
Chapter Ⅴ:The impact of the expansionof higher education in China's university education premium based on the empirical study of the intervention-control framework. The rapid expansion of Chinese higher education occurred in1999, what kind of impact will come after the sudden massive expansion of university education premium, how to evaluate the expansion of higher education in our country? What about the regularity of University of premium expansion evolution? How about the difference of wage quantiles group of university education premium changes? What sort of changes will occur for the expansion of capacity to bias? To Answer these questions requires expansion and rich family background information, while detailed micro data sets, CGSS (China general social survey) micro survey data make our research possible. CGSS earliest investigations.Is in the year of2003, it happens to be the expansion after the first batch of students to enter the labor market period, this chapter, using the latest available data for2006depict out. After Premium shock the expansion of higher education by considering different birth cohorts. If the expansion of higher education in1999can be seen as experiments across the country, this chapter Will analyze the evidence in the intervention -control themining of the experiment based on the framework of the double-difference model (difference-in-differences model, referred to as DID) and quantile estimation techniques and it will bring shocks, and fully take into account the sample selection bias, and educational variables endogeneity, relatively accurate parsing University premium along with the students group at any time period changes in direction and fluctuation. It offers evidences of Empirical University of premium changes from college students supply perspective.
Chapter Ⅵ:Empirical test of The presence of the skill biased technological change with China's panel data from2002-2010based on aggregate production and spatial panel data analysis technology. Based on our enrollment macro data mining from college students demand perspective. This chapter is to analyze the reasons why the changes in university education premium occur. According to Relevant experience learned from international university education premium and technological change argument, This chapter Focus on answering the question about our current national level of technical features rendering skills skewed characteristics. And It will take full account of our region of space-related, theoretically first clarify the connotation of capital-and technology-complementary assumptions, And at the same time it make he use of the total two CES production function, the implementation of spatial panel estimation techniques, respectively estimate the spatial error model and spatial autoregressive model and empirical test My skills partial existence of the state changes in technology, and thus the premium of university education in China is to find convincing evidence of rising demand from the students perspective. The chapter gives the Economic explanation for the difficult employment of current students, high unemployment rate and the fact that from the distribution point.
Chapter Ⅶ:Considering the sample selection bias and endogenous education, based on CHIP data and Heckman sample selection model, this chapter estimates the high school education premium in Chinese Countryside, we find that:after controlling for sample selection bias and endogenous education, vocational education, workers average annual income of1.88times is higher than the junior secondary level workers. High school education premium is not significant. Then the Government should increase investment in vocational education, increase subsidies, while matching the survival of the soft environment of vocational education to help farmers out of poverty. So our study can provide tangible reference for the Chinese rural students educational choices.
Chapter Ⅷ:research findings, policy recommendations and future outlook. This chapter summarizes the conclusions of the study of the full text, thus corresponding policy recommendations on narrowing income gap from a university education, rural high school education perspective, Finally, the paper provides the prospect for this research.
英国经济学家米德认为教育是影响个体收入的一种重要投资,它对收入分配具有深远的间接影响。美国经济学家萨缪尔森也指出,在走向平等的道路上,没有比教育更伟大的步骤。国内外大量研究表明：不论是发达国家还是发展中国家,受教育程度不同是导致收入差距扩大的重要原因之一。
党和国家历来高度重视教育,十七大上提出“优先发展教育,建设人力资源强国”的战略部署,把人才战略上升为国家重点战略。教育事业取得了长足发展,截止2010年底,全国2856个县(市、区)全部普及九年义务教育,高中阶段毛入学率达82.5%,高等教育毛入学率达26.5%。城镇地区高中阶段教育基本普及,但农村高中教育普及率2007年仅为50%左右。因而在我国各级教育快速发展的当代,在思考教育在我国工资收入差异中的作用机制时,我们不仅关注城镇个体是否接受了大学及其以上的教育程度,我们同时关注对于农村个体而言是否接受了高中阶段教育。
自上个世纪90年代末期,以《面向21世纪教育行动振兴计划》、《关于深化教育改革全面推进素质教育的决定》以及《中华人民共和国高等教育法》等相关政策为标志点,我国各级教育特别是高等教育迅速扩张。普通高等教育招生从1978年的40.2万人,增长到1998年108.4万人,年均增长速度8.5%,特别的,1999年本专科招生数一跃上升到159.7万人,较上年增长47.32%。之后以年均16.97%的速度高速增长,截止到2010年,普通高等学校招生数达661.7551万人,如果考虑网络、高等学校本专科招生数以及研究生招生数,2010年招生规模总计达1090.3642万人,在校生数总计高达3374.8176万人,占全国18-22周岁人口比为27.81%,中国进入世界公认的高等教育大众化时期。
伴随高等教育的持续扩张,高等教育和劳动力市场的关系变得日益紧密：随着大学生供给急剧增长,劳动力中具有大学学位的比例逐渐增长,然而在全国失业人员中具有大学学位的比例在急剧增长,教育投资向工资收入溢价转化的路径存在扭曲。现象背后的根源可能在于：首先,伴随着高等教育扩张,高等教育资源匹配滞后以及高等教育经费投入不足,导致教育质量以及边际学生质量的下降,降低了教育投资的产出效率；其次,由于高等教育扩张以及国家助学贷款等金融政策的支持,使大学生的能力分布发生结构变化。我国自1999年6月开始实施国家助学贷款政策,使得在扩张前能力较高但家庭经济条件差的学生,扩张后进入大学了,同时也可能使相对于以前大学生能力较低的新大学生也上大学了,因此,在高等教育扩张前后,大学教育组和高中教育组的能力分布将发生改变,这样大学毕业生工资相对于高中毕业生的变化中有一部分是由于学生质量和能力解释的部分,而不能全部认为是溢价部分。最后,由于计算机信息技术以及离岸外包等技术变迁,导致大学生供给与需求发生结构性矛盾。
本文正是在我国收入差距持续扩大、各级教育特别是高等教育迅猛扩张的背景下,基于大学生供需结构变化和能力分布变化的视角,在试图控制能力偏误后准确测度城镇大学教育溢价以及农村高中阶段教育溢价,深层挖掘溢价变动原因。因而本研究不仅对发展教育经济学、劳动经济学以及工资决定理论具有重要的借鉴意义；而且为个体的教育选择、对我国大学生就业市场的政策设计提供扎实的理论指导；更为政府、教育部门优化教育资源配置提供有价值的决策参考。
本着“以问题为导向,让数据去说话,以前沿计量方法为工具,以政策服务为宗旨”的原则,本文共分八章,各章具体研究内容及研究方法如下：
第一章：导论。详细介绍本文的研究背景、提出要研究的问题,阐述研究这一问题的理论意义及实际应用价值所在；对研究内容、研究思路、研究范围、研究方法、论文结构、本文可能的创新和不足等一一进行总体说明。
第二章：相关概念界定、与本文相关的理论基础以及相关文献综述。本章具体对本文涉及的关键概念：能力及能力偏误；教育与教育溢价以及工资及工资收入差异进行界定,阐明教育与工资决定的理论模型、综述国内外研究现状以及对本文的启示。
第三章：高等教育对我国工资收入结构长期演变的贡献——基于泰尔指数测算及分解分析。本章基于CHNS (China Health and Nutrition Survey)系统测算了1989年至2009年20多年跨度时期,我国个体工资收入差异演变历程,基于泰尔指数分解技术详细描绘了我国工资差异在地区间、性别间、同生群间、职业间以及部门间差异现状及变动趋势,进而从上述群组再到大学学位的二阶段乃至多阶段分解,多角度、多维度地解析大学教育对形成我国工资差距扩大过程中的贡献以深刻理解大学教育的重要性、教育扩张的急迫性与必要性。
第四章：基于倾向得分匹配模型我国城镇大学教育溢价的测度。考虑到微观数据的测量误差、样本选择偏差、教育溢价的异质性以及基于泰尔指数分解技术的局限性,本章将运用先进的微观计量模型方法,基于反事实框架,运用倾向得分匹配模型,运用CHIP (Chinese Household Income Project Survey)数据,对中国城镇大学教育溢价进行准确的度量。之所以选择该数据集,首先因为该时期对应我国高等教育的大幅扩张前,通过该数据我们可以测度高等教育扩张前我国大学教育溢价状况。更重要的是其包含丰富的家庭背景资料,便于控制家庭遗传因素以及家庭生存环境因素对个体能力差异的影响,进而可以更准确的构造工资的反事实,并且在具体匹配估计时,为了结果的稳健性,我们分别选择小时工资、日工资、月工资以及年工资作为结果变量,匹配方法综合考虑了核匹配估计、最近距离匹配以及不同半径匹配估计技术,通过不同指标设计不同方法匹配寻找我国大学教育溢价的准确估计。
第五章：高等教育扩张对我国大学教育溢价的影响——基于干预-控制框架的实证研究。我国高等教育迅猛扩张发生在1999年,扩张后大学溢价演变规律如何?不同的工资分位数组大学教育溢价变动差异如何?回答这些问题需要扩张后的而且含有丰富家庭背景资料的详实的微观数据集,CGSS (China general social survey)2006年的微观调查数据为我们的研究提供了可能。本章利用最新可用的2006年的数据,通过考虑不同的出生群,将高等教育扩张所引致的溢价冲击效应描绘出来。如果将1999年高等教育扩张看成覆盖全国的实验,本章将在干预-控制框架下基于双重差分模型(difference-in-differences model,简称DID)以及分位数估计技术挖掘这次实验带来的冲击影响,并且充分考虑到样本选择偏差以及教育变量的内生性,以相对准确的解析大学溢价随同生群、随时期变动方向及变动幅度。从大学生供给视角实证给出了大学溢价变化的证据。
第六章：技能偏态、大学教育溢价：基于中国样本的实证研究。本章基于我国扩招后的宏观数据,从大学生需求视角挖掘大学教育溢价变动的原因。借鉴国际大学教育溢价和技术变迁的相关经验论证,重点回答我国目前国家层面的技术特征是否呈现技能偏态特性?并且充分考虑我国地区空间相关性,先从理论上阐明资本技术互补假设的内涵,运用总量二级CES生产函数,实施空间面板估计技术,分别估算空间误差模型和空间自回归模型,实证检验了我国技能偏态性技术变迁的存在性,进而对我国大学教育溢价的上升从大学生需求视角找到了令人信服的证据。对于我国目前大学生就业难、失业率高的事实则从能力分布的角度进行了经济学解释。
第七章：技能高中还是普通高中?—中国农村学生教育选择研究。考虑到我国农村劳动力的教育程度大多停留在初高中阶段,高中阶段教育将是实现农村进步的关键因素,具有高中阶段教育程度的劳动力将是中国农村发展的中坚力量。本章将目光聚焦于我国农村样本,同样基于CHIP数据在充分考虑在微观数据样本选择偏差和教育变量内生性基础上相对准确的测度了我国高中阶段教育溢价,并且分别估算技能高中、普通高中教育溢价,以期为中国农村学生教育选择提供切实的参考依据。
第八章：研究结论、政策性建议及未来展望。本章总结了全文的研究结论,进而从大学教育、农村高中教育视角提出相应的关于缩小收入差异的政策建议,最后对本研究将来进一步可能深入的前景进行展望。
Since the nineteen eighties, along with China's economic growth, People's income gap including gap in work wages has expanded to become a more prominent issue, which is mainly demonstrated among regions, between urban and rural areas, among industries and the families, even individuals. Therefor, Narrowing the income gap especially the wage disparity has important sense as revitalizing domestic market, breaking the bottleneck of dual economic structure in resolving the deep-seated contradictions in China's economic growth.This has great significance for realizing the transformation of the mode of economic growth and achieving sustainable growth. It has been put forward clearly to adjust income distribution reasonably, study and formulate the income distribution reform plan and try to reverse the trend of widening income gap in The Party Congress and plenary session of the seventeen Central Committee plenary meeting.
The British economist James Edward Meade believes that education is an important investment influencing the individual income, it makes profound indirect effects on income distribution. American economist Paul A. Samuelson also pointed out that, there is no more great steps than education to reducing income inequality. Hao Ru Yu who is a member of the CPPCC National Committee and the vice-president of Capital University of Economics and Business thinks that education is more important means than tax to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor! A large number of domestic and foreign researches show that:education is the one of the important reasons for the widening income gap whether in developed countries or developing countries.
Chinese government has always attached great importance to education:The strategic plan to "give priority to the development of education and turn China into a country rich in human resources has been proposed on the17th People's Congress.It shows that the talent strategy has rosed to be a key national strategy. Education has made considerable progress, by the end of2010, the nine-year compulsory education has been extensively spread in all of the country's2,856counties (cities, districts), the senior secondary gross enrollment rate reaches to82.5%and26.5%of the gross enrollment rate for higher education, high school education is basically universal in Urban areas, but the rural penetration of high school education in2007, only about50%. According to the Chinese Statistical Yearbook2011:There is the number of6,169,783ordinary junior high school graduates in rural areas, While there is only the number of567141people in the rural, the two account for less than10%. Even though there may be a very small part of the rural junior high school students admitted to the city high school or vocational high schools, technical schools, as well as secondary, yet the proportion of rural junior high school graduates continue their studies are extremely low.Thus with the rapid development of all-levels-education when we consider the mechanism of educational function on wage divide.we are not only concerned about the urban individual whether or not to accept University education but also for rural individual whether to accept a high school education.
Since the end of the90s of the last century, Marked by "21st Century Education revitalization plan of action"、"the decision on deepening education reform and promoting quality education" and "the People's Republic of China Higher Education law" and other relevant policies, all levels of education, especially higher education expands rapidly. Regular higher education enrollment has increased from40.2million in1978to108.4million in1998, an average annual growth rate is8.5%:Particularly, the junior college admissions in1999jumped up to159.7million, representing an increase of47.32%over last year. After high-speed growth rate of16.97%annually until2010, universities and colleges enrollment reached661.7551million the total number of the students reached2231.7929million if we consider network、Specialist、Undergraduate enrollment and graduate enrollment, by the end of2010, the Total enrollment reached to1090.3642million, the total number of students attached to3374.8176million, accounting for18-22years of age nationwide population ratio27.81%. According to American scholar Martin Castro criteria for the classification of the tertiary sector, China has entered the period of popularization of higher education recognized worldwide. The scale of higher education has more than Russia, India and the United States, to become the first in the world. And this expansion continues!
Accompanied by the continued expansion of higher education, the relationship between higher education and the labor market has become increasingly intimate. The reasons are as followed:First, with the rapid growth of college students supply, the proportion of the work force who have college academic degree has gradually increased, however at the same time, according to the relevant statistical data among all the unemployed people, the proportion with a university degree has also increased rapidly. So there is a distorted path for education investment to wage income premium. This phenomenon may cause by the followed reasons:First, along with the expansion of higher education, both higher education resource matching lagging and the higher education funding shortage, have led to the decline of the quality of education and the quality of marginal students, all of these will reduce the output efficiency of education investment; Secondly, due to the policy of higher educational expansion as well as the national student loans and other financial support, The structural ability distribution of college students changes. The expansion of higher education results in that more people can receive university education.since June1999, China began to implement the national student loan policy, so that those Who are with poor economic conditions and higher capacity become university students, while it is impossible before. At the same time those who are with lower capacity can also go to university, therefore, before and after the expansion of higher education, the ability distribution between the group with college degree and the group only with senior secondary degree has changed, so that the wages premium of college graduates relative to high school graduates changes partly due to student quality and ability, but not all considered to be premium part. Finally, due to the technological changes of the computer information technology, as well as offshore outsourcing, there has been structural contradictions between the college students supply and the demand.
Based on the background of China's income gap continued to widen, all levels of education, especially higher education Rapid expansion. In the case of structural changes in supply and demand for college students and changes of ability distribution, This paper tries to accurately measure urban university education premium (ie. The wage divide between the workforce who are with college degree and those who are with high school degree) and high school education in rural areas premium, Further excavate the reasons for premium changes deeply. Therefore, this study not only has important reference for the development of the economics of education, labor economics, and wage determination theory, but it can provide a solid theoretical guidance for educational choices for individuals and government to design employment market policy, optimizing the allocation of educational resources for the education sector to provide valuable decision-making reference.
Based on the principle of "problem-oriented, allowing the data to speak, making the Advanced measurement methods as a tool, for the purpose of service policy", the paper is divided into eight chapters, which is summarized as follows:
Chapter Ⅰ:Introduction:It introduces the Detailed research background, Proposes the problem needed to be solved Elaborates the theoretical significance and practical value Of studying the issue; This chapter launches into an elaborate explanation of research ideas, the scope of the study, research methods, thesis structure, possible innovation and lack.
Chapter Ⅱ:This chapter offers the definitions of some concepts-, Theory Model associated with this article and literature review. In particular, it covers the key concepts involved in this paper:the ability and ability bias; premium education and education, as well as wage and wage differences defined and Clarify the theoretical model associated with this article,summarized research status and the entry point of the paper.
Chapter Ⅲ:The contribution of higher education to the long-term evolution of wage income structure-based on estimates and decomposition of the Theil index analysis. This chapter is based on the system of CHNS (China Health and Nutrition Survey) which measured the span during the20years1989-2009, the evolution process of individual wage income differences of wage differentials based on Theil index decomposition technique, described in detail in the regional, gender, same cohort, occupational and sectoral differences in the status quo and change in trend, and then carried from the decomposition of the above-mentioned groups and then to the second stage of a college degree and even a multi-stage, multi-angle, multi-dimensional analytic university education expanded form of the wage gap contribution to the process of a deep understanding of the importance of university education, the urgency and necessity of the expansion of education.
Chapter Ⅳ:China's urban university education premium measure based on the propensity score matching model. Taking into account the measurement error of the micro data, sample selection bias, The education premium heterogeneity Theil index decomposition technology limitations, this chapter aims to use the advanced micro-econometric model using propensity score matching model, based on the framework of counterfactual and to use CHIP (Chinese Household Income Project Survey) the dataset2002data, to accurately measure Chinese urban university education premium. The reason why we Choose the data set Is that through the data we can measure University education premium status before the period of the expansion of China's higher education. More importantly, it contains rich family background information, and can be easy to control the impact On individual ability differences exerted by family genetic factors as well as the family survive environmental factor, in turn, it can more accurately construct counterfactual wage, and the estimate of the specific matching results robustness, we were selected hourly wage, daily wage, monthly salary and annual salary as a result of variable matching method can match the estimated considering the match from the match as well as different radius estimation techniques, and match the design of the different methods by different indicators looking for our university the education premium accurately estimated.
Chapter Ⅴ:The impact of the expansionof higher education in China's university education premium based on the empirical study of the intervention-control framework. The rapid expansion of Chinese higher education occurred in1999, what kind of impact will come after the sudden massive expansion of university education premium, how to evaluate the expansion of higher education in our country? What about the regularity of University of premium expansion evolution? How about the difference of wage quantiles group of university education premium changes? What sort of changes will occur for the expansion of capacity to bias? To Answer these questions requires expansion and rich family background information, while detailed micro data sets, CGSS (China general social survey) micro survey data make our research possible. CGSS earliest investigations.Is in the year of2003, it happens to be the expansion after the first batch of students to enter the labor market period, this chapter, using the latest available data for2006depict out. After Premium shock the expansion of higher education by considering different birth cohorts. If the expansion of higher education in1999can be seen as experiments across the country, this chapter Will analyze the evidence in the intervention -control themining of the experiment based on the framework of the double-difference model (difference-in-differences model, referred to as DID) and quantile estimation techniques and it will bring shocks, and fully take into account the sample selection bias, and educational variables endogeneity, relatively accurate parsing University premium along with the students group at any time period changes in direction and fluctuation. It offers evidences of Empirical University of premium changes from college students supply perspective.
Chapter Ⅵ:Empirical test of The presence of the skill biased technological change with China's panel data from2002-2010based on aggregate production and spatial panel data analysis technology. Based on our enrollment macro data mining from college students demand perspective. This chapter is to analyze the reasons why the changes in university education premium occur. According to Relevant experience learned from international university education premium and technological change argument, This chapter Focus on answering the question about our current national level of technical features rendering skills skewed characteristics. And It will take full account of our region of space-related, theoretically first clarify the connotation of capital-and technology-complementary assumptions, And at the same time it make he use of the total two CES production function, the implementation of spatial panel estimation techniques, respectively estimate the spatial error model and spatial autoregressive model and empirical test My skills partial existence of the state changes in technology, and thus the premium of university education in China is to find convincing evidence of rising demand from the students perspective. The chapter gives the Economic explanation for the difficult employment of current students, high unemployment rate and the fact that from the distribution point.
Chapter Ⅶ:Considering the sample selection bias and endogenous education, based on CHIP data and Heckman sample selection model, this chapter estimates the high school education premium in Chinese Countryside, we find that:after controlling for sample selection bias and endogenous education, vocational education, workers average annual income of1.88times is higher than the junior secondary level workers. High school education premium is not significant. Then the Government should increase investment in vocational education, increase subsidies, while matching the survival of the soft environment of vocational education to help farmers out of poverty. So our study can provide tangible reference for the Chinese rural students educational choices.
Chapter Ⅷ:research findings, policy recommendations and future outlook. This chapter summarizes the conclusions of the study of the full text, thus corresponding policy recommendations on narrowing income gap from a university education, rural high school education perspective, Finally, the paper provides the prospect for this research.
引文
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②李晓华,技能回报、经济转型与工资不平等的上升,浙江大学博士论文,2007。
①Carneiro, P, J.Heckman和E.vytlacil(2001)、Heckman and Navarro—lozano (2003)、李雪松和詹姆斯·赫克曼(2004)等。
①具体参见Jeffrey M.Wooldrige《Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data》2002,The MIT Press, Cambridge Massachusetts London, England.第552页。
①闵维方、文东升等著：《学术的力量—教育研究和政策制定》,北京大学出版社。2010.
2.邱均平、温芳芳,我国高等教育资源区域分布问题研究----基于2010年中国大学及学科专业评价结果的实证分析,中国高教研究。
①关于Bootstrap计算标准差的具体步骤和思想可参见Efron and Tibshirani (1993); Abadie et al.(2004),以及Abadie and Imbens(2006)。
①具体参见Jeffrey M.Wooldrige《Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data》2002,The MIT Press, Cambridge Massachusetts London, England.第552页。
①颜敏、王维国：《分层次人力资本与全要素生产率基于分位数回归的解析》,2011(5)：17-24.
①具体参见Jeffrey M.Wooldrige《Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data》 2002,The MIT Press, Cambridge Massachusetts London, England第552页。
①具体参见：《计量经济学导论现代观点》J.M伍德里奇著,中国人民大学出版社,279-283.
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①韩雪峰,教育对中国居民收入差距影响的研究,辽宁大学博士论文,2007.
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①[英]克里夫.R.贝尔菲尔德(Clive R. Belfield)著,曹淑江主译：《教育经济学——理论与实证》,第14页。
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①具体参见：《计量经济学导论现代观点》J.M伍德里奇著,中国人民大学出版社,279-283.
②李晓华,技能回报、经济转型与工资不平等的上升,浙江大学博士论文,2007。
①Carneiro, P, J.Heckman和E.vytlacil(2001)、Heckman and Navarro—lozano (2003)、李雪松和詹姆斯·赫克曼(2004)等。
①具体参见Jeffrey M.Wooldrige《Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data》2002,The MIT Press, Cambridge Massachusetts London, England.第552页。
①闵维方、文东升等著：《学术的力量—教育研究和政策制定》,北京大学出版社。2010.
2.邱均平、温芳芳,我国高等教育资源区域分布问题研究----基于2010年中国大学及学科专业评价结果的实证分析,中国高教研究。
①关于Bootstrap计算标准差的具体步骤和思想可参见Efron and Tibshirani (1993); Abadie et al.(2004),以及Abadie and Imbens(2006)。
①具体参见Jeffrey M.Wooldrige《Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data》2002,The MIT Press, Cambridge Massachusetts London, England.第552页。
①颜敏、王维国：《分层次人力资本与全要素生产率基于分位数回归的解析》,2011(5)：17-24.
①具体参见Jeffrey M.Wooldrige《Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data》 2002,The MIT Press, Cambridge Massachusetts London, England第552页。
①具体参见：《计量经济学导论现代观点》J.M伍德里奇著,中国人民大学出版社,279-283.
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