济南市旧城改造区土地集约利用评价研究
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摘要
当前我国发展仍处于重要战略机遇期，城市化快速推进，城市建设用地需求不断加大，土地粗放利用的问题却十分突出，出现大量无序发展空间，必须开源节流、内部挖潜，走集约利用土地的发展道路。济南市作为环渤海地区的中心城市之一，旧城改造区一直是济南市城市建设的重点，旧城改造区的用地结构、用地类型以及基础设施等方面已经不能满足城市发展的需要，提高土地资源利用率、实现城市土地集约化与可持续发展迫在眉睫。
本文在对城市土地集约利用进行深入研究基础上，进行济南市旧城改造区土地集约利用评价，以2009年为评价时点，结合济南市土地利用规划和城市规划，分析济南市旧城改造区的土地利用情况，建立济南市旧城改造区土地集约利用评价体系，确定各指标权重，采用多因素综合评价法，综合测定济南市旧城改造区土地集约利用程度。然后对济南市旧城改造区进行土地集约利用扩展潜力的研究，同时采用总分值—极限修正模型针对济南市旧城改造项目的土地集约利用进行潜力测算。
通过以上研究，本文主要的创新点和得出的结论包括：
（1）旧城改造区土地集约利用从土地利用强度、土地利用效率、空间格局和土地可持续度四个方面进行评价。其中土地利用强度由容积率、建筑密度、人口密度三个因素反映，土地利用效率由地价实现水平、土地利用结构合理化、待建空地比率三个因素反映，空间格局由空间聚集度、区域协调度两个因素反映，土地可持续度由绿地率、基础设施完备度、人均公共设施面积三个因素反映。
（2）以济南市控制性规划确定的区片为基础，按照土地利用方向、土地使用强度、土地使用功能、基准地价等条件大体一致原则，将济南市旧城改造区划分了工业改造区、住宅改造区、商服改造区和公建改造区4种类型。
（3）在土地集约利用程度评价中，人口密度、待建空地比率和绿地率三个指标实际值整体比标准值大，需要进行调整，这为下一步调整指标标准值提供了依据。
（4）通过多因素综合评价法，分析得出济南旧城改造区集约利用程度评价结果，并划分了4个土地集约利用程度等级，结果表明济南市旧城改造区东部片区整体土地集约利用程度高于中西部片区。
（5）对济南市旧城改造区土地集约利用进行了总体扩展潜力测算，分析得出济南市旧城改造区尚可供应土地面积为709.27公顷，王官庄片区、济洛片区、山大路片区和茂岭山片区的扩展潜力最大，应当作为十二五期间济南市旧城改造的重点区域；
（6）根据总分值—极限修正模型，对各改造区项目进行潜力评价，并划分了3个土地集约利用潜力等级，结果与土地集约利用程度评价结果一致，中西部片区土地集约利用潜力比东部片区大，同时从准则层的角度分析了各片区挖掘潜力的重点方面。
（7）根据济南市旧城改造区集约利用评价，提出了济南市旧城改造区下一步土地集约利用需要合理有效利用土地资源，优化土地利用结构，推进产业结构调整，切实将旧城改造区土地利用与土地利用总体规划、城市总体规划的衔接，同时，加强古城—商埠区的保护，建立土地集约利用考核制度。
Currently, China is still at an important period of strategic opportunities, the process ofurbanization is developing at a very fast rate. Though the land for urban construction is in largedemand, the problem of extensive land use is very prominent. A large number of disorderlyspace for development have appeared, now something must be done to open up the source andregulate the flow, explore the potential of the land and we should take the road of landintensification for long. Jinan is one of the central city in the Bohai Sea region, old cityrenovation area of Jinan City has always been the focus of the construction of Jinan City. Thestructure, type of the land for urban construction, and the infrastructure of city can no longermeet the need of city development. Improving the utilization of land resources, realizing theurban land intensification and sustainable development are urgent.
On the basis of in-depth study of urban land intensification, based on the old city renovationarea , the article makes intensive land use evaluation, take 2009 as a point in time, combiningwith the planning and developing of land use, analysis the situation of land using of old cityrenovation area in Jinan, establish the system of evaluation of land intensive use, determine theindex weight, use multi-factor comprehensive evaluation method, make a comprehensivedetermination of the degree of the land intensive use in old city renovation area. And then, studyon the potential of land intensive use and make potential estimation of redevelopment project inJinan City using the total score value-limit revision model.
Through the above research, the main point of innovation of the article and the conclusionsinclude:
(1)We can evaluate the land intensive use in old city renovation area from four aspects: thedegree of land using, the efficiency of land using, the spatial pattern and the sustainability of land.In addition, the degree of land using can be reflected by floor area ratio, building density andpopulation density; the efficiency of land using can be reflected by the level of premium, therational structure of the land using and the rate of idle land; the spatial pattern can be reflected bythe spatial aggregation and the degree of regional coordination; the sustainability of land can bereflected by the ratio of green space, the degree of complete infrastructure and per capita publicfacilities area.
(2) Based on the area determined by the control planning, under the direction of principlethat land using, the intensity of land using, function of land using and Benchmark land price should be consistent with each other, we can divide the old city renovation area of Jinan into fourtypes: industrial transformation zone, residential transformation zone, commercial servicetransformation zone and public buildings transforming zone.
(3)In intensive land use evaluation, there are three indicators: population density, landvacancy rate and the ratio of green space, which actual values are overall larger than the standardvalue. We should adjust the value, and this provides a basis for the next step to adjust the indexstandard value.
(4)Using the multi-factor comprehensive evaluation method, we can come to the results ofthe degree of the land intensive use in old city renovation area, and divide into four degree ofland intensive use. The results show that the degree of land intensive use of the eastern area ishigher than the central and western.
(5)The general potential for expansion of land intensive use in the old city renovation areaof Jinan City was estimated. According to the analysis, the old city renovation area of Jinan Citycan still supply 597.78 ha of land; the largest potential for expansion is the Wang guanzhuangarea, Jiluo area, Shanda area, and Maoling mountain area. These areas should be used as the keyareas of the old city renovation area of Jinan City during the second five.
(6)According to the total score value-limit revision model, the potential of the project of theold city renovation area was evaluated, the potential divided into three potential level of landintensive use. The result is consistent with the result of the evaluation for land intensiveutilization. The potential of land intensive use in central and western area is bigger than theeastern area. Simultaneously, from the perspective of the rule layer, the paper analyzes the keyaspects for exploring the potential.
(7)Next plan has been proposed based on intensive land use evaluation of the old cityrenovation area of Jinan City. Jinan need use land resource reasonable and effective, optimize theland use structure, and advance the industrial structure adjustment, to make effective land use inthe old city renovation area linking with overall land use planning and urban planning. While, wemust strengthen the protection of the old city-commercial port area, establish intensive land useevaluation system.
本文在对城市土地集约利用进行深入研究基础上，进行济南市旧城改造区土地集约利用评价，以2009年为评价时点，结合济南市土地利用规划和城市规划，分析济南市旧城改造区的土地利用情况，建立济南市旧城改造区土地集约利用评价体系，确定各指标权重，采用多因素综合评价法，综合测定济南市旧城改造区土地集约利用程度。然后对济南市旧城改造区进行土地集约利用扩展潜力的研究，同时采用总分值—极限修正模型针对济南市旧城改造项目的土地集约利用进行潜力测算。
通过以上研究，本文主要的创新点和得出的结论包括：
（1）旧城改造区土地集约利用从土地利用强度、土地利用效率、空间格局和土地可持续度四个方面进行评价。其中土地利用强度由容积率、建筑密度、人口密度三个因素反映，土地利用效率由地价实现水平、土地利用结构合理化、待建空地比率三个因素反映，空间格局由空间聚集度、区域协调度两个因素反映，土地可持续度由绿地率、基础设施完备度、人均公共设施面积三个因素反映。
（2）以济南市控制性规划确定的区片为基础，按照土地利用方向、土地使用强度、土地使用功能、基准地价等条件大体一致原则，将济南市旧城改造区划分了工业改造区、住宅改造区、商服改造区和公建改造区4种类型。
（3）在土地集约利用程度评价中，人口密度、待建空地比率和绿地率三个指标实际值整体比标准值大，需要进行调整，这为下一步调整指标标准值提供了依据。
（4）通过多因素综合评价法，分析得出济南旧城改造区集约利用程度评价结果，并划分了4个土地集约利用程度等级，结果表明济南市旧城改造区东部片区整体土地集约利用程度高于中西部片区。
（5）对济南市旧城改造区土地集约利用进行了总体扩展潜力测算，分析得出济南市旧城改造区尚可供应土地面积为709.27公顷，王官庄片区、济洛片区、山大路片区和茂岭山片区的扩展潜力最大，应当作为十二五期间济南市旧城改造的重点区域；
（6）根据总分值—极限修正模型，对各改造区项目进行潜力评价，并划分了3个土地集约利用潜力等级，结果与土地集约利用程度评价结果一致，中西部片区土地集约利用潜力比东部片区大，同时从准则层的角度分析了各片区挖掘潜力的重点方面。
（7）根据济南市旧城改造区集约利用评价，提出了济南市旧城改造区下一步土地集约利用需要合理有效利用土地资源，优化土地利用结构，推进产业结构调整，切实将旧城改造区土地利用与土地利用总体规划、城市总体规划的衔接，同时，加强古城—商埠区的保护，建立土地集约利用考核制度。
Currently, China is still at an important period of strategic opportunities, the process ofurbanization is developing at a very fast rate. Though the land for urban construction is in largedemand, the problem of extensive land use is very prominent. A large number of disorderlyspace for development have appeared, now something must be done to open up the source andregulate the flow, explore the potential of the land and we should take the road of landintensification for long. Jinan is one of the central city in the Bohai Sea region, old cityrenovation area of Jinan City has always been the focus of the construction of Jinan City. Thestructure, type of the land for urban construction, and the infrastructure of city can no longermeet the need of city development. Improving the utilization of land resources, realizing theurban land intensification and sustainable development are urgent.
On the basis of in-depth study of urban land intensification, based on the old city renovationarea , the article makes intensive land use evaluation, take 2009 as a point in time, combiningwith the planning and developing of land use, analysis the situation of land using of old cityrenovation area in Jinan, establish the system of evaluation of land intensive use, determine theindex weight, use multi-factor comprehensive evaluation method, make a comprehensivedetermination of the degree of the land intensive use in old city renovation area. And then, studyon the potential of land intensive use and make potential estimation of redevelopment project inJinan City using the total score value-limit revision model.
Through the above research, the main point of innovation of the article and the conclusionsinclude:
(1)We can evaluate the land intensive use in old city renovation area from four aspects: thedegree of land using, the efficiency of land using, the spatial pattern and the sustainability of land.In addition, the degree of land using can be reflected by floor area ratio, building density andpopulation density; the efficiency of land using can be reflected by the level of premium, therational structure of the land using and the rate of idle land; the spatial pattern can be reflected bythe spatial aggregation and the degree of regional coordination; the sustainability of land can bereflected by the ratio of green space, the degree of complete infrastructure and per capita publicfacilities area.
(2) Based on the area determined by the control planning, under the direction of principlethat land using, the intensity of land using, function of land using and Benchmark land price should be consistent with each other, we can divide the old city renovation area of Jinan into fourtypes: industrial transformation zone, residential transformation zone, commercial servicetransformation zone and public buildings transforming zone.
(3)In intensive land use evaluation, there are three indicators: population density, landvacancy rate and the ratio of green space, which actual values are overall larger than the standardvalue. We should adjust the value, and this provides a basis for the next step to adjust the indexstandard value.
(4)Using the multi-factor comprehensive evaluation method, we can come to the results ofthe degree of the land intensive use in old city renovation area, and divide into four degree ofland intensive use. The results show that the degree of land intensive use of the eastern area ishigher than the central and western.
(5)The general potential for expansion of land intensive use in the old city renovation areaof Jinan City was estimated. According to the analysis, the old city renovation area of Jinan Citycan still supply 597.78 ha of land; the largest potential for expansion is the Wang guanzhuangarea, Jiluo area, Shanda area, and Maoling mountain area. These areas should be used as the keyareas of the old city renovation area of Jinan City during the second five.
(6)According to the total score value-limit revision model, the potential of the project of theold city renovation area was evaluated, the potential divided into three potential level of landintensive use. The result is consistent with the result of the evaluation for land intensiveutilization. The potential of land intensive use in central and western area is bigger than theeastern area. Simultaneously, from the perspective of the rule layer, the paper analyzes the keyaspects for exploring the potential.
(7)Next plan has been proposed based on intensive land use evaluation of the old cityrenovation area of Jinan City. Jinan need use land resource reasonable and effective, optimize theland use structure, and advance the industrial structure adjustment, to make effective land use inthe old city renovation area linking with overall land use planning and urban planning. While, wemust strengthen the protection of the old city-commercial port area, establish intensive land useevaluation system.
引文
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