我国制造业发展对吸收服务业外商直接投资的影响研究
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摘要
国际直接投资早期主要集中在制造业,20世纪80年代全球国际直接投资的重点开始逐步转向服务业,特别是近年来服务贸易的发展,使服务业外商直接投资迅速,已成为了国际投资的新引擎。在我国,从90年代中后期开始,服务业外商直接投资在我国的发展开始增速,虽然与我国吸引制造业FDI的规模还不能相比,但是其在很长一段时间内将成为我国吸收外商直接投资的重要组成部分。但什么是吸引我国服务业外商直接投资的原因值得研究,本文从现代服务业的本质出发,认为作为其服务对象的制造业发展规模与其有着密切的联系,而外商服务业对我国的直接投资显然与东道国的制造业规模有着直接关系。结合服务业跨国理论,本文试图解释我国制造业发展水平与服务业FDI的关系。而且,我国吸收服务业外商直接投资在行业规模上差异还比较大,这是否是与制造业关联程度差异造成的值得研究。因此,外商在进行服务业投资时,必然会考虑我国制造业发展情况。那么我国制造业到底是如何作用于服务业外商直接投资的?对其影响程度到底有多大?制造业对不同服务行业外商投资的影响是否相同?本文从理论和实证的角度研究上述问题,得出了以下主要结论:
第一、我国国内服务行业远远落后于发达国家,占国民经济的比例也很小,不能为我国制造业的发展提供强有力的支持,这为大量追逐利益的服务业跨国公司进入我国提供了有利的条件;同时,我国制造业的发展特点是制造业FDI已成为我国制造业发展中的重要组成部分,跨国制造企业在我国所占市场份额非常庞大。我国制造业对服务业的需求,已主要变为制造业FDI对服务业FDI的需求。
第二、我国本土制造业与制造业FDI对服务业FDI进入我国的影响是有差异的,本土制造业对服务业进入的影响非常不显著,而制造业FDI对其拉动作用非常明显;另外,除了制造业FDI外,服务业跨国公司进入中国的选择是一个综合考量的结果,包括市场规模、基础设施建设和人力资本等因素。
第三、不同性质的服务业行业受制造业FDI的作用不同,随着制造业FDI层次的升级,对于高知识、高技术含量的服务行业需求越加旺盛,而对于传统服务业的需求已经趋于稳定,其产业关联已不再那么显著。
本文最后还就以上结论提出了如何更好利用服务业外商直接投资,以及加强我国制造业与服务业FDI的关联提出了相关政策建议。
Over the past decades, China's foreign direct investment(FDI) has been focused on the manufacturing sector. In the 1980s,the focus of FDI in the world began to shift to services sector, especially the development of international trade in services sector, which has made the scale of FDI in services keep a rapid growth. And now FDI in services has become the new engine of FDI.
In China, since the middle and latter half of the 1990s,FDI in services has represented high growth rate. Though the scale is far away from the FDI in manufacturing sector, it will become a integral part of FDI absorption. What is the key reason affecting FDI absorption in services in China deserves care analysis. From the essence of modern services industry perspective, as the customer of service industry, we think the scale the manufacturing industry has close link with service industry. Obviously, services FDI in China has direct linkage with China's manufacturing scale. Combining with the theory of services FDI, we try to explain the connection between the scale of manufacturing in China and services FDI absorption. Otherwise, the scale of different services sectors' FDI absorption is quite different. What is the reason of this difference? Is the level of connection between manufacturing industry and different services sector the determinant of this difference? So, foreign investors would certainly consider the development of manufacturing in host countries. Then, how the manufacturing industry influence our services FDI absorption? How is the level? Is the influence same to the different FDI in services sector? We study this question on the basis of theoretical research and empirical analysis. At last ,we come to some conclusions:
Firstly, the development of China's services sector is far behind the developed countries, the proportion in national economy is very small. And it can not provide enough support to our development of manufacturing industry, which is the convenient conditions for those benefit-oriented multinational companies(MNCs) of services industry. Meanwhile, the characteristics of manufacturing industry in China is that the scale of FDI is a important part of manufacturing. And the MNCs' share of market in China is huge. So the demand of our manufacturing industry for services has changed to the demand of manufacturing FDI for services FDI.
Secondly, local manufacturing companies and MNCs' impact on FDI flow into services industry is different. Compared with local companies, manufacturing MNCs' influence is more obvious. Moreover, the choice of MNCs flow into services industry in China is a comprehensive consideration. Besides manufacturing FDI, the scale of market, infrastructural facilities and human capital are also considered.
Thirdly, manufacturing FDI's effect on different services sector is different. As the upgrade of manufacturing FDI, the demand for knowledge-intensive and technology-intensive industry is vigorous. Adversly, the demand for the traditional services sector is stable, and the connection between them is not obvious.
At last, we give some suggestions how to take better use of FDI into services industry and how to strengthen the connection between manufacturing industry and FDI into services industry.
第一、我国国内服务行业远远落后于发达国家,占国民经济的比例也很小,不能为我国制造业的发展提供强有力的支持,这为大量追逐利益的服务业跨国公司进入我国提供了有利的条件;同时,我国制造业的发展特点是制造业FDI已成为我国制造业发展中的重要组成部分,跨国制造企业在我国所占市场份额非常庞大。我国制造业对服务业的需求,已主要变为制造业FDI对服务业FDI的需求。
第二、我国本土制造业与制造业FDI对服务业FDI进入我国的影响是有差异的,本土制造业对服务业进入的影响非常不显著,而制造业FDI对其拉动作用非常明显;另外,除了制造业FDI外,服务业跨国公司进入中国的选择是一个综合考量的结果,包括市场规模、基础设施建设和人力资本等因素。
第三、不同性质的服务业行业受制造业FDI的作用不同,随着制造业FDI层次的升级,对于高知识、高技术含量的服务行业需求越加旺盛,而对于传统服务业的需求已经趋于稳定,其产业关联已不再那么显著。
本文最后还就以上结论提出了如何更好利用服务业外商直接投资,以及加强我国制造业与服务业FDI的关联提出了相关政策建议。
Over the past decades, China's foreign direct investment(FDI) has been focused on the manufacturing sector. In the 1980s,the focus of FDI in the world began to shift to services sector, especially the development of international trade in services sector, which has made the scale of FDI in services keep a rapid growth. And now FDI in services has become the new engine of FDI.
In China, since the middle and latter half of the 1990s,FDI in services has represented high growth rate. Though the scale is far away from the FDI in manufacturing sector, it will become a integral part of FDI absorption. What is the key reason affecting FDI absorption in services in China deserves care analysis. From the essence of modern services industry perspective, as the customer of service industry, we think the scale the manufacturing industry has close link with service industry. Obviously, services FDI in China has direct linkage with China's manufacturing scale. Combining with the theory of services FDI, we try to explain the connection between the scale of manufacturing in China and services FDI absorption. Otherwise, the scale of different services sectors' FDI absorption is quite different. What is the reason of this difference? Is the level of connection between manufacturing industry and different services sector the determinant of this difference? So, foreign investors would certainly consider the development of manufacturing in host countries. Then, how the manufacturing industry influence our services FDI absorption? How is the level? Is the influence same to the different FDI in services sector? We study this question on the basis of theoretical research and empirical analysis. At last ,we come to some conclusions:
Firstly, the development of China's services sector is far behind the developed countries, the proportion in national economy is very small. And it can not provide enough support to our development of manufacturing industry, which is the convenient conditions for those benefit-oriented multinational companies(MNCs) of services industry. Meanwhile, the characteristics of manufacturing industry in China is that the scale of FDI is a important part of manufacturing. And the MNCs' share of market in China is huge. So the demand of our manufacturing industry for services has changed to the demand of manufacturing FDI for services FDI.
Secondly, local manufacturing companies and MNCs' impact on FDI flow into services industry is different. Compared with local companies, manufacturing MNCs' influence is more obvious. Moreover, the choice of MNCs flow into services industry in China is a comprehensive consideration. Besides manufacturing FDI, the scale of market, infrastructural facilities and human capital are also considered.
Thirdly, manufacturing FDI's effect on different services sector is different. As the upgrade of manufacturing FDI, the demand for knowledge-intensive and technology-intensive industry is vigorous. Adversly, the demand for the traditional services sector is stable, and the connection between them is not obvious.
At last, we give some suggestions how to take better use of FDI into services industry and how to strengthen the connection between manufacturing industry and FDI into services industry.
引文
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[2]陈宪、黄建锋,分工、互动与融合:服务业与制造业关系演进的实证研究[J],中国软科学,2004,(10)
[3]陈晓宁,中国服务业利用FDI的影响因素研究[A],浙江工业大学硕士学位论文,2005.12
[4]崔岩、臧新,日本服务业与制造业对外直接投资的比较和关联性分析[J],世界经济研究,2007,(8)
[5]丹尼尔贝尔著,后工业化社会的来临——对社会预测的一项探索[M],商务印书馆,1973
[6]段志刚、李善同、王其文,中国投入产出表中投入系数变化的分析[J],中国软科学,2006,(8)
[7]范秀成、王莹,生产性服务业区位模式选择的国际比较[J],国际经贸探索,2007,(5)
[8]付红、刘洪彩,工业深化阶段服务业中间需求结构的转型[J],商业时代,2006,(11)
[9]顾乃华、毕斗斗、任旺兵,中国转型期生产性服务业发展与制造业竞争力关系研究——基于面板数据的实证分析[J],中国工业经济,2006,(9)
[10]韩玉军、陈华超,服务业外商直接投资研究的现状与进展[J],经济理论与经济管理,2006,(12)
[11]洪俊杰,关于服务业外商直接投资选址问题的个人见解[J],国际贸易问题,2007,5
[12]胡芸,服务业对外直接投资和中国服务业开放策略——一个基于行业的分析视角[A],浙江大学硕士学位论文,2005.11
[13]胡昭玲,中国服务业国际竞争力现状与提升对策分析[J],国际贸易问题,2006,(7)
[14]李凡、王巾英,服务业利用外资:印度对中国的启示[J],国际经济合作,2007,(7)
[15]李海舰,跨国公司进入及其对中国制造业的影响[J],中国工业经济,2003,(5)
[16]李江帆、潘发令,第三产业消耗系数和依赖度的国际比较[J],宏观经济研究,2001,(5)
[17]李慧中,贸易与投资动因——服务业与制造业的差异[N],复丹学报,2004,(1)
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