陕西省产业结构变动与经济增长关系实证研究
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摘要
现代经济增长方式本质上是结构主导型增长方式,即以产业结构变动为核心的经济增长,产业结构作为以往经济增长的结果和未来经济增长的基础,合理化、高度化的产业结构可以使资源得到优化配置,从而促进经济快速增长;经济增长会使人均国民收入水平提高,进而引起需求的变动,最终带动经济结构包括产业结构的变化。陕西省是西部大省,在拉动西部与中部和东部经济的过程中起着极为重要的作用,目前对陕西省产业结构变动与经济增长关系的研究大都是定性分析,缺少定量分析研究。因此,对陕西省产业结构变动与经济增长关系进行研究,具有十分重要的理论和现实意义。
本文以产业结构及其与经济增长关系的相关理论综述为基础,运用大量的数据,从三次产业结构变动、产业结构变动效益、关联分析三个层面对陕西省产业结构进行了动态分析,发现了三产内部结构存在的矛盾,以此为基础及时进行产业结构调整优化。同时选取第一产业从业人员占总从业人员比重、第一产业产值占GDP比重和国内生产总值指数为研究变量,采用协整检验和格兰杰因果检验,对陕西省产业结构与经济增长关系进行了验证。最后选取陕西第一、二、三产业产值、细分行业产值和GDP为研究变量,采用多元回归分析方法,得出三个产业及其细分行业对经济增长贡献的增长弹性。通过实证研究,得出以下结论:陕西产业结构变动是经济增长的格兰杰成因,经济增长对产业结构变动没有显著影响;第二产业、工业对经济增长的贡献很大。在上述研究的基础上,从农业、第二产业和第三产业方面具体提出结构调整对策,比如通过农业产业化经营转移农村剩余劳动力、以技术创新提高工业化水平、大力发展新兴服务业等。
The essence of Modern economic growth mode is the structure of growth-oriented, that is, changes in industrial structure as the core of economic growth, industrial structure as a result of economic growth in the past and economic growth in thefuture, rational, sophisticated industrial structure will enable resources to be optimize the configuration, so as to promote rapid economic growth; Economic growth will raise the level of per capita income, thereby causing changes in demand, ultimately drive the economic structure and industrial structure changes. Shaanxi, as the western province, plays a important role in pulling the western and central and eastern parts of the economy, the current research about changes in the industrial structure of Shaanxi Province relationship are qualitative analysis, lack of quantitative analysis. Therefore, to study relationship between the changes in industrial structure in Shaanxi Province and the economic growth has a very important theoretical and practical significance.
In this paper, the industrial structure and its relationship with economic growth based on relevant theoretical synthesis, using large amounts of data, from the three changes in industrial structure, changes in industrial efficiency, correlation analysis at three levels of the industrial structure of Shaanxi Province to carry out the dynamic analysis and have found a third of the contradictory existence of the internal structure as a basis for the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure in time. At the same time, select the primary industry of the total employees in the proportion of employees, the primary industry output value accounted for the proportion of GDP and gross domestic product index for the study variables, using Co-integration Test and Granger Causality Test, to verify the relationship between economic growth and the industrial structure of Shaanxi Province. Finally, select the Shaanxi first, second and third industries, sub-sector output and GDP for the study variables, using multiple regression analysis, to draw the three sub-sectors of industry and its contribution to economic growth, the growth of flexibility. Through empirical research it is found the following conclusions: the industrial structure changes of Shaanxi Granger causes the economic growth economic while the economic growth has no significant impact on industrial structure, the secondary industry makes a significant contribution to economic growth. On the basis of the above-mentioned study, from agriculture, secondary industry and tertiary industry specific to structural adjustment measures, such as through the industrialization of agriculture to transfer rural surplus labor force, to raise the industrialization level by technological innovation and to develop new services.
本文以产业结构及其与经济增长关系的相关理论综述为基础,运用大量的数据,从三次产业结构变动、产业结构变动效益、关联分析三个层面对陕西省产业结构进行了动态分析,发现了三产内部结构存在的矛盾,以此为基础及时进行产业结构调整优化。同时选取第一产业从业人员占总从业人员比重、第一产业产值占GDP比重和国内生产总值指数为研究变量,采用协整检验和格兰杰因果检验,对陕西省产业结构与经济增长关系进行了验证。最后选取陕西第一、二、三产业产值、细分行业产值和GDP为研究变量,采用多元回归分析方法,得出三个产业及其细分行业对经济增长贡献的增长弹性。通过实证研究,得出以下结论:陕西产业结构变动是经济增长的格兰杰成因,经济增长对产业结构变动没有显著影响;第二产业、工业对经济增长的贡献很大。在上述研究的基础上,从农业、第二产业和第三产业方面具体提出结构调整对策,比如通过农业产业化经营转移农村剩余劳动力、以技术创新提高工业化水平、大力发展新兴服务业等。
The essence of Modern economic growth mode is the structure of growth-oriented, that is, changes in industrial structure as the core of economic growth, industrial structure as a result of economic growth in the past and economic growth in thefuture, rational, sophisticated industrial structure will enable resources to be optimize the configuration, so as to promote rapid economic growth; Economic growth will raise the level of per capita income, thereby causing changes in demand, ultimately drive the economic structure and industrial structure changes. Shaanxi, as the western province, plays a important role in pulling the western and central and eastern parts of the economy, the current research about changes in the industrial structure of Shaanxi Province relationship are qualitative analysis, lack of quantitative analysis. Therefore, to study relationship between the changes in industrial structure in Shaanxi Province and the economic growth has a very important theoretical and practical significance.
In this paper, the industrial structure and its relationship with economic growth based on relevant theoretical synthesis, using large amounts of data, from the three changes in industrial structure, changes in industrial efficiency, correlation analysis at three levels of the industrial structure of Shaanxi Province to carry out the dynamic analysis and have found a third of the contradictory existence of the internal structure as a basis for the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure in time. At the same time, select the primary industry of the total employees in the proportion of employees, the primary industry output value accounted for the proportion of GDP and gross domestic product index for the study variables, using Co-integration Test and Granger Causality Test, to verify the relationship between economic growth and the industrial structure of Shaanxi Province. Finally, select the Shaanxi first, second and third industries, sub-sector output and GDP for the study variables, using multiple regression analysis, to draw the three sub-sectors of industry and its contribution to economic growth, the growth of flexibility. Through empirical research it is found the following conclusions: the industrial structure changes of Shaanxi Granger causes the economic growth economic while the economic growth has no significant impact on industrial structure, the secondary industry makes a significant contribution to economic growth. On the basis of the above-mentioned study, from agriculture, secondary industry and tertiary industry specific to structural adjustment measures, such as through the industrialization of agriculture to transfer rural surplus labor force, to raise the industrialization level by technological innovation and to develop new services.
引文
[1]H·钱纳里(1986).工业化和经济增长的比较研究[M].上海:三联书店,1989
[2]西蒙·库兹涅茨(1971).现代经济增长[M].北京:北京经济学院出版社,1989
[3]西蒙·库兹涅茨(1966).各国的经济增长:总产值和生产结构[M].北京:商务印书馆,1999
[4]孙早,鲁政委等.产业结构转换、市场制度变迁与西部地区经济增长:对陕西的案例分析[J].世界经济,2002(12):68-74
[5]龚养军,应勤俭.产业结构与产业政策[M].上海:立信会计出版社,1999
[6]龚养军.产业结构研究[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2002
[7]苏东水.产业经济学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2000
[8]蒋昭侠.产业结构问题研究[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2005
[9]李悦.产业经济学[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1998
[10]W·罗斯托(1964).从起飞进入持续增长的经济学[M].四川:四川人民出版社,1988
[11]L.L.Pasinetti.Structural Change and Economic Growth[M].Canbridge University Press,1981
[12]杨治.产业经济学导论[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1985
[13]周振华.现代经济增长中的结构效应[M].上海:上海人民出版社,1995
[14]刘伟.工业化进程中的产业结构研究[M].北京:中国人民出版社,1995
[15]刘伟.产业结构与经济增长[J].中国工业经济,2002(5):14-21
[16]郭克莎.总量问题还是结构问题?——产业结构偏差对我国经济增长的制约及调整思路[J].当代经济研究,1999(9):15-21
[17]郭克莎.结构优化与经济发展[M].广东:广东经济学出版社,2001
[18]毛健.产业结构变动与产业政策选择[M].北京:中国财经经济出版社,1999
[19]龚养军.产业结构研究[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2002
[20]徐冬林.中国产业结构变迁与经济增长的实证分析[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2004(2):49-54
[21]纪玉山,吴勇民.我国产业结构与经济增长关系之协整模型的建立与实现[J].当代经济研究,2006(06):47-51
[22]刘伟.工业化进程中的产业结构研究[M].北京:中国人民出版社,1995
[23]卢明湘,谢合明.成都产业结构效益的实证研究[J].集团经济研究,2007(23):104-105
[24]阎小培.广州产业结构的效益与演变趋势分析[J].地理学与国土研究,1998(3):28-31
[25]杨公仆,夏大慰.产业经济学教程[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,1998
[26]中国投入产出学会课题组.我国目前产业关联度分析——2002年投入产出表系列分析报告之一[J].统计研究,2006(11):3-8
[27]王岳平.我国产业结构的投入产出关联分析[J].管理世界,2000(4):59-65
[28]易丹辉.数据分析与Eviews应用[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2007
[29]计量经济学-理论·方法·Eviews应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2008
[30]Romer D.Advanced Macroeconomics[M].Boston:McGraw-Hill,2000
[31]张艺影.产业结构与经济增长相互促进作用机理分析[J].商业时代,2008(19):80-80,103
[32]傅宁.浙江省产业结构变动与经济增长的实证研究[J].商场现代化,2008(02):272
[33]胡红安.西方产业结构理论的形成发展及其研究方法[J].生产力研究,2007(21):113-114
[34]刘建平等.产业结构与经济增长关系的实证分析-以广东省为例[J].统计与决策,2006(2):70-72
[35]李占风等.产业结构演变对我国经济增长的作用分析[J].统计与决策,2007(19):100-101
[36]王亚平.新阶段产业结构优化升级的方向与政策[J].宏观经济管理,2008(07):36-38
[37]李国璋,武玉洁.浙江产业结构与经济增长关系的实证分析[J].商场现代化,2008(06):234-235
[38]高全成,周冰.陕西产业结构调整中的区位优势选择分析[J].理论导刊,2005(06):62-64
[39]宋林,郝渊晓等.陕西产业结构:问题、形成原因的实证分析与新产业发展观[J].人文杂志,2004(03):82-87
[40]高新才,曹子坚.西北区域经济发展蓝皮书(陕西卷)[M].北京:人民出版社,2008
[41]王心,珈铭.试论农业经济增长方式转变的路径[J].生态经济,2008(01):86-88
[42]王兆宇.陕西关中地区城市化的路径选择[J].经济师,2006(08):257-258
[43]杨宗岳.坚持以信息化带动工业化正确引导陕西产业结构的调整[J].陕西经济社会发展研究,2002(01):26-27
[44]杨秀云,官升东.陕西第三产业演进趋势及其内部结构分析[J].西北大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2005(01):42-46
[45]翟庆萱.陕西省旅游业发展对策探讨[J].郑州经济管理干部学院学报,2007(12):29-30
[46]Donald R.Davis.The home market,trade,and industrial structure.The American economic review,1998,88(5):1264-1276
[47]Montobbio Fabio.An evolutionary model of industrial growth and structural change.Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,2002(13)
[48]Michael Pender.Industrial structure and aggregate growth.Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,2003(14)
[49]Miguel Gonzalez-Maestro.Industrial loans and market structure.European economic review,2003,47(5):841-855
[50]Michael Pender.Industrial structure and aggregate growth.Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,2003,14(4):427-448
[2]西蒙·库兹涅茨(1971).现代经济增长[M].北京:北京经济学院出版社,1989
[3]西蒙·库兹涅茨(1966).各国的经济增长:总产值和生产结构[M].北京:商务印书馆,1999
[4]孙早,鲁政委等.产业结构转换、市场制度变迁与西部地区经济增长:对陕西的案例分析[J].世界经济,2002(12):68-74
[5]龚养军,应勤俭.产业结构与产业政策[M].上海:立信会计出版社,1999
[6]龚养军.产业结构研究[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2002
[7]苏东水.产业经济学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2000
[8]蒋昭侠.产业结构问题研究[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2005
[9]李悦.产业经济学[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1998
[10]W·罗斯托(1964).从起飞进入持续增长的经济学[M].四川:四川人民出版社,1988
[11]L.L.Pasinetti.Structural Change and Economic Growth[M].Canbridge University Press,1981
[12]杨治.产业经济学导论[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1985
[13]周振华.现代经济增长中的结构效应[M].上海:上海人民出版社,1995
[14]刘伟.工业化进程中的产业结构研究[M].北京:中国人民出版社,1995
[15]刘伟.产业结构与经济增长[J].中国工业经济,2002(5):14-21
[16]郭克莎.总量问题还是结构问题?——产业结构偏差对我国经济增长的制约及调整思路[J].当代经济研究,1999(9):15-21
[17]郭克莎.结构优化与经济发展[M].广东:广东经济学出版社,2001
[18]毛健.产业结构变动与产业政策选择[M].北京:中国财经经济出版社,1999
[19]龚养军.产业结构研究[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2002
[20]徐冬林.中国产业结构变迁与经济增长的实证分析[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2004(2):49-54
[21]纪玉山,吴勇民.我国产业结构与经济增长关系之协整模型的建立与实现[J].当代经济研究,2006(06):47-51
[22]刘伟.工业化进程中的产业结构研究[M].北京:中国人民出版社,1995
[23]卢明湘,谢合明.成都产业结构效益的实证研究[J].集团经济研究,2007(23):104-105
[24]阎小培.广州产业结构的效益与演变趋势分析[J].地理学与国土研究,1998(3):28-31
[25]杨公仆,夏大慰.产业经济学教程[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,1998
[26]中国投入产出学会课题组.我国目前产业关联度分析——2002年投入产出表系列分析报告之一[J].统计研究,2006(11):3-8
[27]王岳平.我国产业结构的投入产出关联分析[J].管理世界,2000(4):59-65
[28]易丹辉.数据分析与Eviews应用[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2007
[29]计量经济学-理论·方法·Eviews应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2008
[30]Romer D.Advanced Macroeconomics[M].Boston:McGraw-Hill,2000
[31]张艺影.产业结构与经济增长相互促进作用机理分析[J].商业时代,2008(19):80-80,103
[32]傅宁.浙江省产业结构变动与经济增长的实证研究[J].商场现代化,2008(02):272
[33]胡红安.西方产业结构理论的形成发展及其研究方法[J].生产力研究,2007(21):113-114
[34]刘建平等.产业结构与经济增长关系的实证分析-以广东省为例[J].统计与决策,2006(2):70-72
[35]李占风等.产业结构演变对我国经济增长的作用分析[J].统计与决策,2007(19):100-101
[36]王亚平.新阶段产业结构优化升级的方向与政策[J].宏观经济管理,2008(07):36-38
[37]李国璋,武玉洁.浙江产业结构与经济增长关系的实证分析[J].商场现代化,2008(06):234-235
[38]高全成,周冰.陕西产业结构调整中的区位优势选择分析[J].理论导刊,2005(06):62-64
[39]宋林,郝渊晓等.陕西产业结构:问题、形成原因的实证分析与新产业发展观[J].人文杂志,2004(03):82-87
[40]高新才,曹子坚.西北区域经济发展蓝皮书(陕西卷)[M].北京:人民出版社,2008
[41]王心,珈铭.试论农业经济增长方式转变的路径[J].生态经济,2008(01):86-88
[42]王兆宇.陕西关中地区城市化的路径选择[J].经济师,2006(08):257-258
[43]杨宗岳.坚持以信息化带动工业化正确引导陕西产业结构的调整[J].陕西经济社会发展研究,2002(01):26-27
[44]杨秀云,官升东.陕西第三产业演进趋势及其内部结构分析[J].西北大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2005(01):42-46
[45]翟庆萱.陕西省旅游业发展对策探讨[J].郑州经济管理干部学院学报,2007(12):29-30
[46]Donald R.Davis.The home market,trade,and industrial structure.The American economic review,1998,88(5):1264-1276
[47]Montobbio Fabio.An evolutionary model of industrial growth and structural change.Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,2002(13)
[48]Michael Pender.Industrial structure and aggregate growth.Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,2003(14)
[49]Miguel Gonzalez-Maestro.Industrial loans and market structure.European economic review,2003,47(5):841-855
[50]Michael Pender.Industrial structure and aggregate growth.Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,2003,14(4):427-448