人民币汇率制度效率研究
|
摘要
自1949年1月18日人民币对美元汇率在天津口岸生成后,人民币汇率在我国经济发展中的价格杠杆作用和政策调控杠杆作用日益增强。人民币汇率制度效率状况对我国经济运行产生了重要影响。
本文围绕着人民币汇率制度效率的特征史实分析及量化实证分析逐步展开,以人民币汇率制度效率为核心,分七章进行论证。
第一章导论,介绍本文的选题背景、国内外对该问题的相关文献综述、本文的主要内容及章节构成、论文的创新及不足。通过该章的写作,将使读者对本文的研究思路形成一个总体上的认识与把握。
第二章,从界定与本文研究内容密切相关的制度、汇率制度概念入手,给出人民币汇率制度的定义,介绍汇率制度分类方法并对本文采用的汇率制度分类方法做出选择。对新古典经济学、制度经济学关于效率的不同看法以及汇率制度效率的现有研究成果进行评介,进而界定人民币汇率制度效率。
第三章,借鉴新古典经济学、制度经济学关于效率的不同看法以及汇率制度效率的现有研究成果,给出人民币汇率制度效率的概念和衡量人民币汇率制度效率的评价标准,即有效率的人民币汇率制度必须具备灵活合理的汇率形成机制以反映价格信息,具备对经济金融发展的稳定化作用机制,同时,有效率的人民币汇率制度尚须体现汇率具备的政策杠杆特性,即有效率的汇率制度还须具备激励兼容、帕累托有效等特征。在给出有效汇率制度的衡量标准之后,从人民币汇率制度的历史变迁角度抽象出人民币汇率制度演变的特点继而确定本文的研究对象、研究时期,并对以人民币汇率形成机制为标准的汇率制度效率状况进行评价。通过对1994年以及2005年人民币汇率制度的两次重大改革剖析,指出人民币汇率形成机制虽然走上了以市场供求为基础的汇率决定之路,但一些严格限制,如汇率波动较窄波幅限制等制约了市场力量的发挥,从而也影响了人民币汇率形成机制的真正市场化,人民币汇率制度的弹性尚需进一步加大。
第四章至第六章,按照第三章提出的有效率汇率制度的标准分析人民币汇率制度的效率状况。第四章,分析有效率人民币汇率制度的激励兼容效率要求,即分析人民币汇率制度的政策效率。作为调控经济运行的重要经济制度之一,人民币汇率制度必然要与财政政策、货币政策等政策变量产生相互关联,本章从我国实际出发,分析人民币汇率制度与这些政策之间的激励相容状况,人民币汇率制度在实现物价稳定、经济增长等宏观政策目标时,对财政政策、货币政策均构成了不同程度的制约,财政政策在宏观经济调节中被指派于外部均衡,货币政策在固定汇率制下其独立性受到挑战、货币供给的内生性明显增强、货币政策操作陷于困境。
第五章,分析有效率人民币汇率制度的帕累托有效要求,即资源配置效率。人民币汇率制度在调控经济运行时,最直接的作用目标就是通过发挥汇率的资源配置信号功能,实现对经济结构的调整。汇率作用于资源配置的效率主要体现在国际经济交易中的实体性资源配置和基础性金融资源的配置上,本章选择商品进出口、外商直接投资等在我国国际收支平衡表中占主导地位的项目做为实体性资源的代表,将外汇储备做为基础性金融资源的代表展开人民币汇率制度资源配置效率的分析。以商品进出口、外商直接投资和外汇储备为例的分析显示,人民币汇率制度在配置上述资源时,虽然实现了“量”的扩张和积累,但“质量”不高是不容忽视的现实。
第六章,分析人民币汇率制度的稳定化作用机制,即人民币汇率制度的稳定化效率。通过对国内外研究成果的梳理,发现汇率制度稳定化作用的发挥受经济冲击及投机冲击的影响,因而本章首先评估了我国经济发展中面临的货币冲击、实际冲击和投机冲击,然后以人民币汇率制度实际运行说明其稳定化作用的积极发挥,同时指出人民币汇率制度存在投机冲击而致货币危机的隐忧。
第七章,在第三章至第六章人民币汇率制度效率状况分析评价基础上,进一步探求人民币汇率制度效率不完全的原因及效率改进建议。作为一项重要的经济制度,人民币汇率制度的效率既受制于经济因素、政策因素及自身缺陷,又取决于它与其他相关经济制度(或政策)的适应状况。在分析当前人民币汇率制度效率不完全的各方面原因之后,对人民币汇率制度改革提出建议,重点包括完善人民币汇率形成机制、健全和完善外汇市场、加强宏观经济政策(如利率自由化政策、财政政策、产业政策等)的配合等。
本文的创新主要体现在以下两个方面：
1.研究方法的创新
本文采用制度分析方法、实证分析方法、规范分析方法、结构分析方法等多种分析方法对人民币汇率制度效率进行多角度分析。本文以“制度效率”为主题,制度分析方法贯穿全文,通过对人民币汇率制度的效率分析,注意到：人民币汇率制度处于演变过程中,现存的人民币汇率制度不是完善的,其运行机制的不少方面具有暂时性；通过设定一系列的制度效率评价标准,对人民币汇率制度效率进行定性分析,回答了人民币汇率制度效率“应该是什么”的问题,并通过相应的提升人民币汇率制度效率对策的提出,解决了人民币汇率制度如何才能符合这些效率标准的问题；运用人民币汇率水平的历史数据,建立回归模型,检验人民币汇率制度的经济增长绩效、稳定物价机制以及资源配置效率,完成了以定量分析为主要特征的实证分析；在剖析人民币汇率制度的资源配置效率时,深入分析了人民币汇率制度对外向型经济资源配置的结构的影响,即体现为结构分析。
同时,本文在论述过程中引用了许多数据资料,制作了许多图表,意在直观明了地反映问题,提供信息。从这些数据资料的分析中可以发现大量有价值的东西而不是凭主观臆断。
另外,本文在分析问题时,尤其是在第三、四章的论述中,贯穿了成本-收益分析法这一制度经济学效率分析的主要方法,意在对人民币汇率制度实施的成本-收益进行对比,进一步指出人民币汇率制度的实施虽然在相关评价指标中取得了极大的成就(功),但也付出了较高的成本,人民币汇率制度仍须进一步完善。
2.研究内容的创新
本文对人民币汇率制度效率的研究实现了三方面的突破。其一,选择“效率”视角对人民币汇率制度的汇率形成机制效率、政策效率、资源配置效率、稳定化效率等进行研究,突破了既有研究侧重制度选择、制度缺陷及改革建议等其他视角；其二,建立了一系列评价人民币汇率制度效率的标准,既包括汇率形成机制、汇率制度稳定化作用机制等定性标准,又包括人民币汇率制度与宏观经济政策的激励兼容、资源配置状况等可检验的标准；其三,对人民币汇率制度效率分析较为全面,突破了既有研究要么注重人民币汇率制度效率的微观形成机理研究,要么注重人民币汇率制度的宏观效率研究的局限,整合了人民币汇率制度的宏、微观效率。
由于本文写作过程中资料搜集较难,有许多尚须进一步深入研究及改进的地方,这也正是本文的缺陷所在：
其一,在分析人民币汇率制度效率时,虽然成本-收益分析法贯穿文章始终,但未能对人民币汇率制度的实施成本和收益做出全面的评估和量化分解,难免给人一种缺乏对人民币汇率制度效率进行全面评价的感觉。
其二,在对人民币事实钉住美元的汇率制度的政策效率、资源配置效率进行计量检验时,由于难以获得统一口径的足够样本,不得不将样本期推广至1980年-2007年,这很可能会影响到结论的准确性和说服力。
After the creation of RMB exchange rate against US dollar on 18th, January 1949, the function of exchange rate in adjusting economy's operation as price leverage and policy leverage has been raised step by step. Moreover, during the past decades, the efficiency status quo of China's exchange rate regime has affected the operation of economy importantly.
This thesis is intended to investigate the dynamic efficiency of China's exchange rate regime with the emphasis on its historical characters and empirical analysis. This thesis is composed of seven chapters in core of analyzing efficiency of RMB's exchange rate regime.
The first chapter is an introduction to and outline of the study. This chapter introduces the background and status quo of the issue, gives a scratch of the whole thesis involving the innovation and shortage.
The second chapter gives a series of definition such as institution, exchange rate regime and provides a background description of the evolution of efficiency standard in different opinions as well as China's exchange rate regime. Then selects classification method for Chian's exchange rate regime and put forward the efficiency definition of China's regime.
The third chapter gives the standard of efficiency appraising based on the theories of efficiency and efficiency theories of exchange rate regime in different opinions.The article selects exchange rate formation mechanism, macro-economic policy incentive compatibility, parato efficiency and stabilization function mechanism as the criterion to appraise the efficiency of China's exchange rate regime from the appoint of historical characters. The efficient RMB's exchange rate regime calls for flexible and reasonable exchange rate formation mechanism to reflect the information involved in price. It also calls for the exisistence of stabilization function mechanism and character of policy leverage. These standards are existed to be examined according to different aspects. They are contents of chapter three to chapter six. The third chapter is focused on formation mechanism of China's exchange rate regime after stating its history and character. The important reform of China's exchange rate regime in 1994 and 2005 are analyzed after the analytical object and research period have been defined. The market power is enhancing and is functioning in the decision of RMB's exchange rate. However, some rigid restriction such as the fluctuation band restriction constraints the function of market and the marketization of exchange rate formation mechanism, the flexibility of exchange rate regime should be enhanced in the future though the decisive function of market has been raised step by step.
The fourth chapter turns to policy efficiency of RMB's exchange rate regime. As an important economic institution, RMB's exchange rate regime relates to financial policy and monetary policy obviously. Through analyzing performance of its policy targets according to our country's facts, a conclusion is drawn that RMB's exchange rate regime performed well in pursuing its targets such as price stability, economic growth et al. but act as restraint to financial and monetary policy in varying degrees. Financial policy is used to mandate external balance. Monetary policy's independence is affected, the intrincic character of money supply is enhanced obviously and the operation of monetary policy enters into dilemma selection due to the adoption of actual fixed exchange rate regime.
The fifth chapter is designed to investigate the resource allocation efficiency that is also called pareto efficiency. RMB's exchange rate regime is pursuing its economic structure adjusting function through the signaling function in resource allocation. This function is mainly embodied in the commodity resource allocation and basic financial resource allocation. Commodity imports and exports, foreign direct investment, foreign exchange reserve which are main bodies of balance of payments are selected as the objects, various testing methods have been used to get an appraisal. The above mentioned resources all have been accumulated with lower quality during different stages of RMB's exchange rate regime.
The sixth chapter analyzes stabilization efficiency of China's exchange rate regime. The existed literature has shown that the stabilization function of exchange rate regime has been bounded to economic shocks and speculative shocks. So this chapter appraises the shocks in our economy development then estimates the stabilization efficiency. The probability of currency crisis is also pointed out in light of Krugman's crisis model.
It is obvious that the efficiency of China's exchange rate regime is not high based on the tests in the four chapters (Ⅲ-Ⅵ). So the seventh chapter is devoted to the causes and countermeasures analysis. The imperfect efficiency is owe to factors like path dependence, its intrinsic defect, policy constraint and so on. After analyzing the causes of low efficiency, countermeasures are put forward. To raise the efficiency, the intervention mechanism of central bank should be reformed, domestic interest rate control should be removed step by step, a Chinese-featured target zone should be set up to normalize exchange rate management for Chinese yuan. Moreover, the related policies such as foreign trade policy, industrial policy, especially the policy regarding the convertibility of Chinese yuan should be put high on the agenda.
Through the above mentioned analysis, some new ideas and opinions are put forward. The followings are the innovations of the thesis.
Firstly, multiple analysis methods are used to complete this paper. Institutional analysis, positive analysis, normative study, structural method are dispersed in different chapters. The efficiency idea is the center of the thesis, so institutional analysis method is dispersed in the whole article.By using institutional analysis, the thesis finds that the temporary character of RMB's exchange rate regime is obvious. So a series of criterion are used to appraise the efficiency status of China's exchange rate regime. The foundation of these apprasing criterion gives an answer to "what will be the reasonable RMB's exchange rate regime" and countermeasures are analyzed to raise the efficiency. Qualititive analysis method is used here. Quantitive analysis is done by founding regression model to appraise the price stability function, resource allocation efficiency and approving economic growth function of China's exchange rate regime. Structural analysis method is dispersed in resource allocation efficiency analysis of China's exchange rate regime for the detail structure deposing.
Many graphs and tablets are used in the analysis. So the conclusion is relatively reasonable and perfect. Much useful information is given. Furthermore, costs-gains analysis which is the classic analysis method in institutional analysis of efficiency is corvered in chapterⅢandⅣin order to compare the costs and gains of adopting fixed exchange rate regime. China's exchange rate regime still needs to be reformed and made more perfectly because relatively high costs are exsisted during the course of pursusing its targets.
Secondly, the contents are made newly from three aspects. Efficiency point of view is selected to analyze China's exchange rate regime and this method has seldomly been done by others; A series of appraising criterion are put forward which includes both quantitive and qualitative criterion such as s exchange rate formation mechanism, macro-economic policy incentive compatibility, parato efficiency and stabilization function mechanism; The macro-efficiency and micro-efficiency of China's exchange rate regime are analyzed in detail. So some defects such as focusing only on the micro-efficiency or macro-efficiency of RMB's exchange rate regime are deleted through the relatively detailed analysis.
However, other works such as comparison of costs and gains of adopting fixed exchange rate regime still should be done because the whole appraision of efficiency of China's exchange rate regime can not be done by the thesis. And more, the correction of the conclusion might be affected covering the analsis of policy efficiency and resource allocation efficiency due to the shortage of data with the same sample period. So in the co-integration tests and regression analysis, the sample during period 1980 to 2007 is selected.
本文围绕着人民币汇率制度效率的特征史实分析及量化实证分析逐步展开,以人民币汇率制度效率为核心,分七章进行论证。
第一章导论,介绍本文的选题背景、国内外对该问题的相关文献综述、本文的主要内容及章节构成、论文的创新及不足。通过该章的写作,将使读者对本文的研究思路形成一个总体上的认识与把握。
第二章,从界定与本文研究内容密切相关的制度、汇率制度概念入手,给出人民币汇率制度的定义,介绍汇率制度分类方法并对本文采用的汇率制度分类方法做出选择。对新古典经济学、制度经济学关于效率的不同看法以及汇率制度效率的现有研究成果进行评介,进而界定人民币汇率制度效率。
第三章,借鉴新古典经济学、制度经济学关于效率的不同看法以及汇率制度效率的现有研究成果,给出人民币汇率制度效率的概念和衡量人民币汇率制度效率的评价标准,即有效率的人民币汇率制度必须具备灵活合理的汇率形成机制以反映价格信息,具备对经济金融发展的稳定化作用机制,同时,有效率的人民币汇率制度尚须体现汇率具备的政策杠杆特性,即有效率的汇率制度还须具备激励兼容、帕累托有效等特征。在给出有效汇率制度的衡量标准之后,从人民币汇率制度的历史变迁角度抽象出人民币汇率制度演变的特点继而确定本文的研究对象、研究时期,并对以人民币汇率形成机制为标准的汇率制度效率状况进行评价。通过对1994年以及2005年人民币汇率制度的两次重大改革剖析,指出人民币汇率形成机制虽然走上了以市场供求为基础的汇率决定之路,但一些严格限制,如汇率波动较窄波幅限制等制约了市场力量的发挥,从而也影响了人民币汇率形成机制的真正市场化,人民币汇率制度的弹性尚需进一步加大。
第四章至第六章,按照第三章提出的有效率汇率制度的标准分析人民币汇率制度的效率状况。第四章,分析有效率人民币汇率制度的激励兼容效率要求,即分析人民币汇率制度的政策效率。作为调控经济运行的重要经济制度之一,人民币汇率制度必然要与财政政策、货币政策等政策变量产生相互关联,本章从我国实际出发,分析人民币汇率制度与这些政策之间的激励相容状况,人民币汇率制度在实现物价稳定、经济增长等宏观政策目标时,对财政政策、货币政策均构成了不同程度的制约,财政政策在宏观经济调节中被指派于外部均衡,货币政策在固定汇率制下其独立性受到挑战、货币供给的内生性明显增强、货币政策操作陷于困境。
第五章,分析有效率人民币汇率制度的帕累托有效要求,即资源配置效率。人民币汇率制度在调控经济运行时,最直接的作用目标就是通过发挥汇率的资源配置信号功能,实现对经济结构的调整。汇率作用于资源配置的效率主要体现在国际经济交易中的实体性资源配置和基础性金融资源的配置上,本章选择商品进出口、外商直接投资等在我国国际收支平衡表中占主导地位的项目做为实体性资源的代表,将外汇储备做为基础性金融资源的代表展开人民币汇率制度资源配置效率的分析。以商品进出口、外商直接投资和外汇储备为例的分析显示,人民币汇率制度在配置上述资源时,虽然实现了“量”的扩张和积累,但“质量”不高是不容忽视的现实。
第六章,分析人民币汇率制度的稳定化作用机制,即人民币汇率制度的稳定化效率。通过对国内外研究成果的梳理,发现汇率制度稳定化作用的发挥受经济冲击及投机冲击的影响,因而本章首先评估了我国经济发展中面临的货币冲击、实际冲击和投机冲击,然后以人民币汇率制度实际运行说明其稳定化作用的积极发挥,同时指出人民币汇率制度存在投机冲击而致货币危机的隐忧。
第七章,在第三章至第六章人民币汇率制度效率状况分析评价基础上,进一步探求人民币汇率制度效率不完全的原因及效率改进建议。作为一项重要的经济制度,人民币汇率制度的效率既受制于经济因素、政策因素及自身缺陷,又取决于它与其他相关经济制度(或政策)的适应状况。在分析当前人民币汇率制度效率不完全的各方面原因之后,对人民币汇率制度改革提出建议,重点包括完善人民币汇率形成机制、健全和完善外汇市场、加强宏观经济政策(如利率自由化政策、财政政策、产业政策等)的配合等。
本文的创新主要体现在以下两个方面：
1.研究方法的创新
本文采用制度分析方法、实证分析方法、规范分析方法、结构分析方法等多种分析方法对人民币汇率制度效率进行多角度分析。本文以“制度效率”为主题,制度分析方法贯穿全文,通过对人民币汇率制度的效率分析,注意到：人民币汇率制度处于演变过程中,现存的人民币汇率制度不是完善的,其运行机制的不少方面具有暂时性；通过设定一系列的制度效率评价标准,对人民币汇率制度效率进行定性分析,回答了人民币汇率制度效率“应该是什么”的问题,并通过相应的提升人民币汇率制度效率对策的提出,解决了人民币汇率制度如何才能符合这些效率标准的问题；运用人民币汇率水平的历史数据,建立回归模型,检验人民币汇率制度的经济增长绩效、稳定物价机制以及资源配置效率,完成了以定量分析为主要特征的实证分析；在剖析人民币汇率制度的资源配置效率时,深入分析了人民币汇率制度对外向型经济资源配置的结构的影响,即体现为结构分析。
同时,本文在论述过程中引用了许多数据资料,制作了许多图表,意在直观明了地反映问题,提供信息。从这些数据资料的分析中可以发现大量有价值的东西而不是凭主观臆断。
另外,本文在分析问题时,尤其是在第三、四章的论述中,贯穿了成本-收益分析法这一制度经济学效率分析的主要方法,意在对人民币汇率制度实施的成本-收益进行对比,进一步指出人民币汇率制度的实施虽然在相关评价指标中取得了极大的成就(功),但也付出了较高的成本,人民币汇率制度仍须进一步完善。
2.研究内容的创新
本文对人民币汇率制度效率的研究实现了三方面的突破。其一,选择“效率”视角对人民币汇率制度的汇率形成机制效率、政策效率、资源配置效率、稳定化效率等进行研究,突破了既有研究侧重制度选择、制度缺陷及改革建议等其他视角；其二,建立了一系列评价人民币汇率制度效率的标准,既包括汇率形成机制、汇率制度稳定化作用机制等定性标准,又包括人民币汇率制度与宏观经济政策的激励兼容、资源配置状况等可检验的标准；其三,对人民币汇率制度效率分析较为全面,突破了既有研究要么注重人民币汇率制度效率的微观形成机理研究,要么注重人民币汇率制度的宏观效率研究的局限,整合了人民币汇率制度的宏、微观效率。
由于本文写作过程中资料搜集较难,有许多尚须进一步深入研究及改进的地方,这也正是本文的缺陷所在：
其一,在分析人民币汇率制度效率时,虽然成本-收益分析法贯穿文章始终,但未能对人民币汇率制度的实施成本和收益做出全面的评估和量化分解,难免给人一种缺乏对人民币汇率制度效率进行全面评价的感觉。
其二,在对人民币事实钉住美元的汇率制度的政策效率、资源配置效率进行计量检验时,由于难以获得统一口径的足够样本,不得不将样本期推广至1980年-2007年,这很可能会影响到结论的准确性和说服力。
After the creation of RMB exchange rate against US dollar on 18th, January 1949, the function of exchange rate in adjusting economy's operation as price leverage and policy leverage has been raised step by step. Moreover, during the past decades, the efficiency status quo of China's exchange rate regime has affected the operation of economy importantly.
This thesis is intended to investigate the dynamic efficiency of China's exchange rate regime with the emphasis on its historical characters and empirical analysis. This thesis is composed of seven chapters in core of analyzing efficiency of RMB's exchange rate regime.
The first chapter is an introduction to and outline of the study. This chapter introduces the background and status quo of the issue, gives a scratch of the whole thesis involving the innovation and shortage.
The second chapter gives a series of definition such as institution, exchange rate regime and provides a background description of the evolution of efficiency standard in different opinions as well as China's exchange rate regime. Then selects classification method for Chian's exchange rate regime and put forward the efficiency definition of China's regime.
The third chapter gives the standard of efficiency appraising based on the theories of efficiency and efficiency theories of exchange rate regime in different opinions.The article selects exchange rate formation mechanism, macro-economic policy incentive compatibility, parato efficiency and stabilization function mechanism as the criterion to appraise the efficiency of China's exchange rate regime from the appoint of historical characters. The efficient RMB's exchange rate regime calls for flexible and reasonable exchange rate formation mechanism to reflect the information involved in price. It also calls for the exisistence of stabilization function mechanism and character of policy leverage. These standards are existed to be examined according to different aspects. They are contents of chapter three to chapter six. The third chapter is focused on formation mechanism of China's exchange rate regime after stating its history and character. The important reform of China's exchange rate regime in 1994 and 2005 are analyzed after the analytical object and research period have been defined. The market power is enhancing and is functioning in the decision of RMB's exchange rate. However, some rigid restriction such as the fluctuation band restriction constraints the function of market and the marketization of exchange rate formation mechanism, the flexibility of exchange rate regime should be enhanced in the future though the decisive function of market has been raised step by step.
The fourth chapter turns to policy efficiency of RMB's exchange rate regime. As an important economic institution, RMB's exchange rate regime relates to financial policy and monetary policy obviously. Through analyzing performance of its policy targets according to our country's facts, a conclusion is drawn that RMB's exchange rate regime performed well in pursuing its targets such as price stability, economic growth et al. but act as restraint to financial and monetary policy in varying degrees. Financial policy is used to mandate external balance. Monetary policy's independence is affected, the intrincic character of money supply is enhanced obviously and the operation of monetary policy enters into dilemma selection due to the adoption of actual fixed exchange rate regime.
The fifth chapter is designed to investigate the resource allocation efficiency that is also called pareto efficiency. RMB's exchange rate regime is pursuing its economic structure adjusting function through the signaling function in resource allocation. This function is mainly embodied in the commodity resource allocation and basic financial resource allocation. Commodity imports and exports, foreign direct investment, foreign exchange reserve which are main bodies of balance of payments are selected as the objects, various testing methods have been used to get an appraisal. The above mentioned resources all have been accumulated with lower quality during different stages of RMB's exchange rate regime.
The sixth chapter analyzes stabilization efficiency of China's exchange rate regime. The existed literature has shown that the stabilization function of exchange rate regime has been bounded to economic shocks and speculative shocks. So this chapter appraises the shocks in our economy development then estimates the stabilization efficiency. The probability of currency crisis is also pointed out in light of Krugman's crisis model.
It is obvious that the efficiency of China's exchange rate regime is not high based on the tests in the four chapters (Ⅲ-Ⅵ). So the seventh chapter is devoted to the causes and countermeasures analysis. The imperfect efficiency is owe to factors like path dependence, its intrinsic defect, policy constraint and so on. After analyzing the causes of low efficiency, countermeasures are put forward. To raise the efficiency, the intervention mechanism of central bank should be reformed, domestic interest rate control should be removed step by step, a Chinese-featured target zone should be set up to normalize exchange rate management for Chinese yuan. Moreover, the related policies such as foreign trade policy, industrial policy, especially the policy regarding the convertibility of Chinese yuan should be put high on the agenda.
Through the above mentioned analysis, some new ideas and opinions are put forward. The followings are the innovations of the thesis.
Firstly, multiple analysis methods are used to complete this paper. Institutional analysis, positive analysis, normative study, structural method are dispersed in different chapters. The efficiency idea is the center of the thesis, so institutional analysis method is dispersed in the whole article.By using institutional analysis, the thesis finds that the temporary character of RMB's exchange rate regime is obvious. So a series of criterion are used to appraise the efficiency status of China's exchange rate regime. The foundation of these apprasing criterion gives an answer to "what will be the reasonable RMB's exchange rate regime" and countermeasures are analyzed to raise the efficiency. Qualititive analysis method is used here. Quantitive analysis is done by founding regression model to appraise the price stability function, resource allocation efficiency and approving economic growth function of China's exchange rate regime. Structural analysis method is dispersed in resource allocation efficiency analysis of China's exchange rate regime for the detail structure deposing.
Many graphs and tablets are used in the analysis. So the conclusion is relatively reasonable and perfect. Much useful information is given. Furthermore, costs-gains analysis which is the classic analysis method in institutional analysis of efficiency is corvered in chapterⅢandⅣin order to compare the costs and gains of adopting fixed exchange rate regime. China's exchange rate regime still needs to be reformed and made more perfectly because relatively high costs are exsisted during the course of pursusing its targets.
Secondly, the contents are made newly from three aspects. Efficiency point of view is selected to analyze China's exchange rate regime and this method has seldomly been done by others; A series of appraising criterion are put forward which includes both quantitive and qualitative criterion such as s exchange rate formation mechanism, macro-economic policy incentive compatibility, parato efficiency and stabilization function mechanism; The macro-efficiency and micro-efficiency of China's exchange rate regime are analyzed in detail. So some defects such as focusing only on the micro-efficiency or macro-efficiency of RMB's exchange rate regime are deleted through the relatively detailed analysis.
However, other works such as comparison of costs and gains of adopting fixed exchange rate regime still should be done because the whole appraision of efficiency of China's exchange rate regime can not be done by the thesis. And more, the correction of the conclusion might be affected covering the analsis of policy efficiency and resource allocation efficiency due to the shortage of data with the same sample period. So in the co-integration tests and regression analysis, the sample during period 1980 to 2007 is selected.
引文
①[德]柯武刚,史漫飞.制度经济学：社会秩序与公共政策[M].商务印书馆,2000：636
①具体见王曦,才国伟.基于微观形成机制的我国汇率制度改革短期方案[R].中国金融发展高级论坛会议论文,2006
①[德]柯武刚,史漫飞.制度经济学——社会秩序与公共政策[M].韩朝华译.北京：商务印书馆,2000：32-33
②[美]凡勃伦.有闲阶级论[M].蔡受百译.北京：商务印书馆,1964：139
③[美]约翰·康芒斯.制度经济学：上册[M].于树生译.北京：商务印书馆,1962：87
①[美]约翰·康芒斯.制度经济学：上册[M].于树生译.北京：商务印书馆,1962：86
②[美]道格拉斯·c.诺斯.制度、制度变迁与经济绩效[M].刘守英译.上海：上海三联书店,1994：3
③[美]道格拉斯·C.诺斯.制度、制度变迁与经济绩效[M].刘守英译.上海：上海三联书店,1994：3-4
④[美]道格拉斯·C.诺斯.经济史中的结构与变迁[M].陈郁,罗华平等译.上海：上海三联书店,1994：225-226
⑤[美]R.科斯,A.阿尔钦和D.诺斯等.财产权利与制度变迁[C].刘守英等译.上海：上海三联书店,1994：253
⑥[美]R.科斯,A.阿尔钦和D.诺斯等.财产权利与制度变迁[C].刘守英等译.上海：上海三联书店,1994：329
①林毅夫.关于制度变迁的经济学理论：诱致性变迁与强制性变迁[A].刘守英等.财产权利与制度变迁[C].上海：上海三联书店,1994：375
②黄少安.产权经济学[M].济南：山东人民出版社,1995：90
③[美]塞缪尔·P·亨廷顿.变化社会中的政治秩序[M].上海：上海三联书店,1989：12
④孙本文.社会学概论(试讲本)[M].天津：天津人民出版社,1985：157
⑤[日]青木昌彦.比较制度分析[M].上海：上海远东出版社,2001：28
⑥郑杭生.社会学概论新论[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1987：253
①刘鸿儒主编.新金融辞海[Z].北京：改革出版社,1995：355
②姜波克.国际金融新编[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2001：135
③邓立立(2006)指出,汇率制度选择的主体有三个层次：一国作为主体对汇率制度的选择、区域范围的汇率制度选择以及国际范围的汇率安排。参见邓立立.汇率制度的选择与发展趋势研究[M].大连：东北财经大学出版社,2006：9-10。由于本文研究人民币汇率制度效率问题,不考虑区域及国际货币合作因素,因此,本文所讨论的汇率制度选择的主体是第一个层次的。
①据Frankel(2003)的研究,Ghosh等(2002)、LYS(2002)、RR(2004)三种实际分类法趋于一致的情形大约在35%-45%之间。Bleaney和Francisco(2007)的研究也得到了同样的结论。
②马克思恩格斯全集：第1卷[M].北京：人民出版社,1956：55-57
①顾海良,郭建青和顾海兵主编译.简明帕氏新经济学辞典[Z].北京：中国经济出报社,1991：16
②林清泉主编.金融工程[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2005：108
①如科斯的产权理论认为有效率的产权体系实施社会产出最大化或降低交易成本促进经济增长的体系；德姆塞茨的契约理论强调激励组合的作用。其共同点是都侧重于交易成本的最小化,尽可能把外部利润内部化。详见[美]哈罗德·德姆塞茨.所有权、控制与企业[M].北京：经济科学出版社,1999：14-33,333-350
②诺斯.经济史中的结构与变迁[M].陈郁,罗华平等译.上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1994：12
③诺斯.经济史中的结构与变迁[M].陈郁,罗华平等译.上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1994：17
①North,D. C. Institution, institution change and economic performance[M]. NY, Cambridge University Press,1990: 108
②如布罗姆利认为制度效率是制度绩效和制度实施效率的统一。制度绩效是制度通过降低交易成本对资源配置、经济增长的作用；制度实施效率是制度被制度主体认同、遵循的程度。见布罗姆利.经济利益与经济制度——公共政策的理论基础[M].上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1996：2-3。卢瑟福提出了制度的生产性或动态性效率标准,见卢瑟福.经济学中的制度——老制度主义和新制度主义[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,1999：186
①刘世锦.经济体制效率分析导论[M].上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1994：63-64
②刘世锦.经济体制效率分析导论[M].上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1994：67-69
③林毅夫.诱致性制度变迁与强制性制度变迁——关于制度变迁的经济学理论[A].R.科斯等.财产权利与制度变迁[C].刘守英等译.上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1994：283-304
④张维迎.博弈论与信息经济学[M].上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1996：2-3
①李怀.制度生命周期与制度效率递减[J].管理世界,1999(3)：68-77
②袁庆明.论制度效率及其决定[J].江苏社会科学,2002(4)：34-38
③辛鸣.制度评价的标准选择[Z].新华文摘,2005(4)：5-8
④田国强.现代经济学的基本分析框架与研究方法[Z].新华文摘,2005(11)：52-57
①胡浩志.交易费用计量研究述评[J].理论经济学,2007(10)：59-66
①黎诣远.微观经济分析(下)[M].北京：清华大学出版社,1996：2
②凯恩斯(1923)最早提出并划分了一国的币值稳定包括“内部稳定”(即价格稳定)和“外部稳定”(汇率稳定和国际收支平衡)。我国1994年的汇率制度改革,将汇率政策目标界定为“维持汇率稳定”,2005年的汇率制度改革进一步将汇率政策目标界定为“保持人民币汇率在合理、均衡水平上的基本稳定,促进国际收支基本平衡,维护宏观经济和金融市场的稳定”,可见,人民币汇率制度的实施是以追求币值稳定、经济增长和国际收支平衡为目标的。
①[美]保罗·萨缪尔森,威廉·诺德豪斯.经济学[M].萧琛主译.北京：人民邮电出版社,2004：334-339
①此处文献综述参考了李辉.人民币有效汇率对我国进出口贸易的影响[J].金融教学与研究,2008(6)：29-35
[1]Ahearne, A. William Cline & Kyung Tae Lee et al. Global imbalances:time for action[R].Policy Briefs in International Economics 2007-4(March). Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics
[2]Anderson Jonathan. China:reminders on the RMB[R].UBS Investment Research, Asian Economic Comment, November 5,2004
[3]Anderson Jonathan. The complete RMB handbook[A],4th ed. UBS Investment Research Asian Focus, September 16,2006
[4]Annka A.& Jonny N. Real exchang rate and fundamentals:evidence from 15 OECD countries[J]. Open Economies Review,2000(11):101-132
[5]Assery & Peel. The effects of exchange rate volatility on exports[J].Econimics Letters,1991(37):173-177
[6]Bailey M. J., Tavlas G. S.& Ulan M. The impact of exchange rate volatility on export growth:some theoretical considerations and empirical results [J] Journal of Policy Modeling,1987(9):225-243
[7]Baxter, M.& Stockman, A.C..Business cycles and the exchange rate regime:some international evidence [J] Journal of Monetary Economics,1989,23(3):377-400
[8]Bergsten, C. Fred. An action plan to stop the market manipulators now[N].Financial Times, March 14,2005
[9]Bergsten, C. Fred. The dollar and the renminbi[R]. Statement before the hearing on US economic relations with China:strategies on exchange rates and market access. Subcommittee on Security and International Trade and Finance, Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, United States Senate, Washington, May 23,2007
[10]Bergsten, C.F. China bashing 2004[J]. International Economics Policy Brief, 2004(5):38-72
[11]Bleaney, Michael & Francisco, Manuela. Classifying exchange rate regimes:a statistical analysis of alternative methods[R].University of Nottingham, CREDIT Research Paper, No.07/05,2007
[12]Bubula, Andrea & Inci Otker-Robe. Are pegged and intermediate exchange rate regimes more crisis-prone?[R].IMF Working Paper,2003, No.03/223
[13]Calvo, Guillermo A.. Fixed versus flexible exchange rates[EB/OL]. http://www.bsos.umd.edu/ciecalvo.htm
[14]Calvo, Guillermo & Reinhart. Fear of floating[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2002(117):379-408
[15]Campbell, D.E. Resource allocation mechanisms[M].Cambridge University Press, 1987:58-102
[16]Chang, R.& Velasco, A. Exchange rate policy for developing countries [J]. American Economic Review,2000(90):112-146
[17]Chang, R.& Velasco, A. Financial fragility and the exchange rate regime [R]. NBER Working Paper,1998, No.6469
[18]Clark, P. B. Uncertainty, exchange risk, and the level of international trade[J]. Western Economic Journal,1973(11):302-313
[19]Coudert, V.& M. Dubert. Does exchange rate regime explain differences in economic results for Asian countries?[R].CEPII Working Paper,2004, No.2003-5
[20]Cushman, D. The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade[J]. Journal of International Economics,1983(9):45-63
[21]Cushman, D. The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade[J]. Journal of International Economics,1983(1):45-63
[22]Dickey D.A.& Fuller, W.A. Distribution of the estimators of autoregressive time series with a unit root[J].Journal of American Statistical Association,1979(74): 427-431
[23]Dornbusch, R. Fewer monies, better monies [R].NBER Working Paper,2001, No.8324
[24]Dubas, J.M., Byung-Joo Lee & N.C. Mark. Effective exchange rate classifications and growth[R].NBER Working Paper,2005, No.11272
[25]Dunaway, S.& Xiangming Li. Estimating China's "equilibrium" real exchange rate[R].IMF Working Paper,2005/202
[26]Edwards, S. Real and monetary determinants of real exchange behavior [J]. Journal
of Development Economics,1988(29):311-341
[27]Edwards, Sebastian.The determinants of the choice between fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes[R].NBER Working Paper 1996, No.5756
[28]Eichengreen, B.& A.Rose. Staying afloating when the wind shifts:external factors and emerging market banking crisis [R].NBER Working Paper 6370, 1998
[29]Eichengreen, B.& C. Arteta. Banking crises in emerging markets:risks and red herrings[R].University of California, Berkeley, Mimeo,2000
[30]Eichengreen, B. International monetary arrangements for the 21st century [M]. Washington, D.C.:Brookings Institution,1994:220-239
[31]Eichengreen, B.& Hausmann R. Exchange rates and financial fragility [R].NBER Working Paper,1999,No.7418
[32]Either, W J. International trade and forward exchange market{J}.American Economic Review,1973(63):494-503
[33]Eleanor Doyle. Exchange rate volatility and Irish-UK trade,1979-1992 [J].Applied Economics,2001(2):249
[34]Fama E.F. Efficient capital markets:□[J].Journal of Finance,1991,46(5):1575-1617
[35]Fama E.F. Efficient capital markets:a review of theory and empirical work[J]. Journal of Finance,1970(25):383-417
[36]Flood, R.& Rose, A.. Fixing exchange rates:a virtual quest for fundamentals [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,1995,36(1):3-38
[37]Frankel J. A.& Wei Shangjin. Trade blocks and currency blocks[R].NBER Working Paper,1993, No.4335
[38]Frankel, J.A.. No single currency regimes is right for all countries or at all times[R].NBER Working Papers,1999, No.7338
[39]Frankel, Jeffrey A. Experiences of and lessons from exchange rate regimes in emerging economies[R].NBER Working Paper,2003, No.10032
[40]Frankel, Jeffrey. Monetary regime choices for a semi-open country [A].Capital Controls, Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in The World Economy, edited by Sebastian Edwards. Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press,1995:35-69.
[41]Ghosh, Atish R., Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf. Exchange rate regimes: choices and consequences[M].Cambridge, Massachussetts:MIT Press,2002:5-17
[42]Ghosh, Atish R., Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry et al. Dose the nominal exchange rate regime matter?[R].NBER Working Paper 1997, No.5874
[43]Ghosh, Atish R., Anne-Marie, Gulde & Holger C. Wolf. Exchange rate regimes: choices and consequences[M].Cambridge, Massachusetts:MIT Press,2002:21-78
[44]Goldstein, M.& Michael Mussa. The Fund appears to be sleeping at the wheel[N]. Financial Times, October 3,2005
[45]Goldstein, Morris. A (lack of) progress report on China's exchange rate policies[R].Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper 2007b-5 (June).
[46]Goldstein, Morris. Adjusting China's exchange rate policies[R].Working Paper 2004-1
[47]Goldstein, Morris. Exchange rates, fair play, and the "grand bargain"[N].Financial Times,2006a, April 21
[48]Goldstein, Morris. Renminbi controversies[J].Cato Journal,2006b (2):(Spring/ Summer)
[49]Goldstein, Morris. The IMF as global umpire for exchange rate policies [A]. In C. Fred Bergsten and the world economy. Ed. Michael Mussa. Washington:Peterson Institute for International Economics.2007a
[50]Golstein, M.& Nicholas R. Lardy. China's exchange rate policy dilemma[J]. American Economic Review,2006(96):422-426
[51]Goldstein, M.& Turner. Banking crises in emerging economies:origins and policy options [R].BIS Economic Papers,1996, No.46
[52]Gotur P. Effects of exchange rate volatility on trade:some further evidence[J].IMF Staff Papers,1985(32):475-512
[53]Granger, E.R. Co-integration and error correction:representation, estimation and testing[J].Econometric,1987(55):251-276
[54]Green, Stephen. China:calling all PBoC FX sterilization geeks[N].Standard Chartered on the Ground-Asia,2007b:June 18
[55]Green, Stephen. This...is...Sparta!!![N].Standard Chartered on the Ground-Asia, 2007a:April 12
[56]Haizhou HUANG & Shuilin WANG. Exchange rate regimes:China's experience and choices[J].China Economic Review,2004(15):336-342
[57]Hausmann R., Gavin M.& Pages-Serra C. et al. Financial turmoil and the choice of exchange rate regime[R].Inter-American Development Bank, Mimeo,1999
[58]Helpman, E. An exploration in the theory of exchange-rate regimes[J] Journal of Political Economy,1981,89(5):865-890
[59]Hooper, P.& S. W. Kohlhagen. The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade [J] Journal of International Economics, 1978(8):483-511
[60]IMF. Annual report on exchange arrangements and exchange restrictions [EB/OL]. 2003-2008. http:///www.imf.org
[61]IMF. Classification of exchange rate arrangements and monetary policy frameworks[R].1999. http:///www.imf.org/external/np/mfd/er/index.asp
[62]Jan P.Voon, Li Guangzhong & Jimmy Ran. Does China really lose from RMB revaluation? evidence from some export industries [J]. Applied Economics, 2006(38):156-193
[63]Jianping Ding & Ying Zeng. China's approach to its exchange rate mechanism: adaptability of BBC rules[J].China & world Economy,2005(5):43-55
[64]Johnson, S. Statistical analysis of co-integration vectors [J] Journal of Economic and Control,1988(12):231-254
[65]Krugman, Paul, R.. The eternal triangle:explaining international financial perplexity[EB/OL].1999. http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/triangle.html.
[66]Krugman, Paul. A model of balance of payments crises[J] Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,1979(11):311-325
[67]Kurt Schuler. Classifying exchange rate[R].2007.http:///www.dollarization.org
[68]Kuttner, Kenneth N.,& Adam S. Posen. Beyond bipolar:a three-dimensional assessment of monetary frameworks [J]. International Journal of Finance and Economics,2001,6(4):369-387
[69]Lachman, Desmond. Complacemency at the IMF[N].Gazeta Mercantil, October 3,2007
[70]Lardy, Nicholas R. China:toward a consumption-driven growth path[Z].Policy Briefs in International Economics,2006-6.Washington:Institute for International Economics.
[71]Lardy, N. R. Exchange rate and monetary policy in China[J].Cato Journal,2005(1): 92-112
[72]Larrain, F.& A. Velasco. Exchange-rate policy in emerging-market economies:the case for floating[R].Essays in International Economics,2001, No.224
[73]Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Federico Sturzenegger. Classifying exchange rate regimes:deeds vs. words[J].European Economic Review,2005 (49):1603-1635
[74]Levy-Yeyati, E.& F. Sturzenegger. To float or to fix:evidence on the impact of exchange rate regime on growth[J].American Economic Review,2003, 93(4):1173-1193
[75]Meese & Rogoff. Empirical exchange rate models of the Seventies:do they fit out of sample? [J] Journal of International Economics,1983(14):423-467
[76]Morris Goldstein & Nicholas R. Lardy. China's exchange rate policy:an overview of some key issues [A].Peterson Institute for International Economics,2008:1-60
[77]Morris, G. Renminbi appreciation seen in China's own best interest[J]. IMF Survey,2005(2):205-238
[78]Mundell, R. A theory of optimum currency areas[J].American Economic Review, 1961(51):657-665
[79]Mundell, R. Inflation and real interest[J]. Journal of Political Economics, 1963(71):280-283
[80]Mundell, R. The monetary dynamics of international adjustment under fixed and floating exchange rates[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1960(74):227-257
[81]Mundell, R.A. The appropriate use of monetary and fiscal policy for internal and external stability[R].IMF Staff Papers,1962(9):70-79
[82]Mundell, Robert. China's exchange rate:the case for the status quo [R].Paper presented at the International Monetary Fund Seminar on the foreign exchange system, Dalian, China, May 26-27,2004
[83]Mussa, Michael. The dollar and the current account:how much should we worry?[J] Journal of Policy Modeling,2007(29):691-696
[84]Nitithanprapas, Isriya & Thomas D. Willett. Classifying exchange rate regimes[J]. http:///econ.claremontmckenna.edu/papers/2002-22.pdf
[85]Obstfeld, Maurice & Kenneth Rogoff. Exchange rate dynamics redux[J] Journal of Political Economy,1995(3):624-660
[86]Prasad, Iswar, Thomas Rumbaugh & Qing Wang. Putting the cart before the horse? Capital account liberalization and exchange rate flexibility in China[R].IMF Policy Discussion 2005/1
[87]Preeg, Ernest. Exchange rate manipulation to gain an unfair competitive advantage [A]. In Dollar Overvaluation and the Global Economy, ed. C. Fred Bergsten and John Williamson,2003, Washington:Institute for International Economics.
[88]Qian Ying & Panos Varangis. Does exchange rate volatility hinder export Growth[J].Emipirical Economics,1994(19):371-396
[89]Reinhart, Carmen M.& Rogoff, Kenneth. The modern history of exchange rate arrangements:a reinterpretation[R].NBER Working Paper,2002, No.8963
[90]Reinhart, Carmen. The mirage of floating exchange rate[J]. American Economic Review,2000(90):65-70
[91]Rogoff, K. et al. Evolution and performance of exchange rate regimes [R].IMF Working Paper,2003, No.03/243
[92]Sauer C.& Bohara A. C. Exchange rate volatility and exports:regional difference between developing and industrial countries [J].Review of International Economies, 2001,9(1):133-152
[93]Spiegel, M.M. A look at China's new exchange rate regime[J].FRBSF Economic Letter,2005(23):1-4
[94]Stone, Mark R.& Ashok J. Bhundia. A new taxonomy of monetary regimes[R]. IMF Working Paper,2004, No.04/191
[95]Velasco & Cespedes L. F. Exchange rate arrangements:a developing country perspective [Z].Unpublished manuscript,1999
[96]William R. Cline & John Williamson. Estimates of the equilibrium exchange rate of the renminbi:is there a consensus and, if not, why not?[A]. Peterson Institute for International Economics,2008:131-155
[97]Wolf, Holger. Exchange rate regime choice and consequences[EB/OL]. http://www.ifk-cfs.de
[98]Zhichao ZHANG. Choosing an exchange rate regime during economic transition: the case of China[J].China Economic Review,2001(12):203-226
[99][德]柯武刚,史漫飞.制度经济学——社会秩序与公共政策[M].韩朝华译.北京：商务印书馆,2000：32-33
[100][美]道格拉斯·C.诺斯.经济史中的结构与变迁[M].陈郁,罗华平等译.上海：上海三联书店,1994：225-226
[101][美]道格拉斯·C.诺斯.制度、制度变迁与经济绩效[M].刘守英等译.上海：上海三联书店,1994：3-4
[102][美]凡勃伦.有闲阶级论[M].蔡受百译.北京：商务印书馆,1964：139
[103][美]塞缪尔·P.亨廷顿.变化社会中的政治秩序[M].上海：上海三联书店,1989：12
[104][美]约翰·康芒斯.制度经济学：上册[M].于树生译.北京：商务印书馆,1962：86-87
[105][日]青木昌彦.比较制度分析[M].上海：上海远东出版社,2001：28
[106][英]露西沃·萨诺,马克·P.泰勒.汇率经济学[M].成都：西南财经大学出版社,2006：45-90
[107]T.W.舒尔茨.制度与人的经济价值的不断提高[A].刘守英等.财产权利与制度变迁[C].上海：上海三联书店,1994：253
[108]V.W.拉坦.诱致性制度变迁理论[A].刘守英等.财产权利与制度变迁[C].上海：上海三联书店,1994：329
[109]巴曙松,吴博和朱元倩.汇率制度改革后人民币有效汇率测算及对国际贸易、外汇储备的影响分析[J].国际金融研究,2007(4)：56-62
[110]白钦先.白钦先经济金融文集(第二版)[C].北京：中国金融出版社,1999： 97-135,230-239,295-303
[111]卜永祥,Rod Tyers.中国均衡实际有效汇率：一个总量一般均衡分析[J].经济研究,2001(6)：21-32
[112]陈平,王曦.人民币汇率的非均衡分析与汇率制度的宏观效率[J].经济研究,2002(6)：23-31
[113]陈三毛.汇率制度：从现实选择到最优制度[J].经济前沿,2009(9)：46-59
[114]储幼阳.论汇率制度转换——从固定汇率走向浮动汇率[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2006：42-56
[115]戴维斯,诺斯.制度变迁的理论：概念与原因[A].刘守英等.财产权利与制度变迁[C].上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1994：271
[116]丁建平,周建芳和韩栋.认真总结汇率制度改革成果,积极探讨深化改革发展思路[J].国际金融研究,2009(3)：4-7
[117]丁剑平,曾芳琴.外汇市场微观结构理论与实证[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2006：37-90
[118]丁剑平.关于现行的人民币汇率机制的可持续性研究[J].国际金融研究,2003(5)：48-55
[119]杜莉.双重汇率制度研究[M].上海：上海财经大学出版社,2003：45-60
[120]封思贤.人民币实际有效汇率的变化对我国进出口的影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007(4)：3-13
[121]冯用富.汇率目标区：中国金融进一步开放中汇率制度的选择[J].财贸经济,2001(2)：49-54
[122]冯用富.稳定人民币汇率与制度改革[J].经济学动态,2005(4)：50-55
[123]冯用富.中国金融进一步开放中汇率制度选择的方向[J].金融研究,2000(7)：52-61
[124]顾海良,郭建青和顾海兵主编译.简明帕氏新经济学辞典[Z].北京：中国经济出报社,1991：167
[125]郭建泉.汇率制度的演变趋势和我国的选择[J].管理世界,2001(3)：121-126
[126]韩剑,徐康宁.基于开放经济下交易费用的汇率制度选择——兼论现行人民币汇率制度的改革方向[J].东南大学学报,2004(11)：25-28
[127]何慧刚.现行人民币汇率制度与宏观经济政策效应——兼论人民币汇率制度 改革[J].广东商学院学报,2004(5)：71-75
[128]贺力平,蔡兴.从国际经验看中国国际收支双顺差之“迷”[J].国际金融研究,2008(9)：11-18
[129]贺立平.人民币汇率体制的历史演变及其启示[J].国际经济评论,2005(7-8)：36-39
[130]赫国胜.汇率决定理论研究[M].沈阳：辽宁大学出版社,1996：209-226
[131]胡浩志.交易费用计量研究述评[J].理论经济学,2007(10)：59-66
[132]黄少安.产权经济学[M].济南：山东人民出版社,1995：90
[133]黄志刚,刘惠好.人民币汇率形成机制的特点及现实走势分析：2005-2008[J].海南金融,2009(4)：14-17
[134]姜波克.国际金融新编[Z].上海：复旦大学出版社,2001：135
[135]姜波克.均衡汇率理论与政策新框架的三探索——基于自然资源角度的分析[J].国际金融研究,2007(1)：53-57
[136]姜春.人民币升值之争的理论反思：新制度经济学的解释[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2004(6)：41-48
[137]黎诣远.微观经济分析[M].北京：清华大学出版社,1996：2
[138]李波.投机性攻击、货币升值危机与人民币汇率制度改革[J].比较,2005(21)：191-203
[139]李广众,Jan P. Voon.实际汇率错位、汇率波动性及其对制造业出口贸易影响的实证分析：1978-1998年平行数据研究[J].管理世界,2004(11)：22-28
[140]李海菠.人民币实际汇率与中国对外贸易关系[J].世界经济研究,2003(7)：42-47
[141]李建伟,余明.人民币有效汇率的波动及其对中国经济增长的影响[J].世界经济,2003(11)：21-34
[142]李婧.解析人民币钉住美元制[J].管理世界,2002(9)：37-46
[143]李婧.人民币汇率制度的改革取向及退出战略[J].国际经济评论,2003(1)：12-16
[144]李祺.汇率制度转型：效率、均衡与信誉——基于均衡汇率理论的视角[D].博士学位论文,上海社会科学院,2006
[145]李若谷.制度适宜与经济发展[M].北京：人民出版社,2008：55
[146]李未无.实际汇率与经济增长：来自中国的证据[J].管理世界,2005(2)：56-61
[147]李扬,余维彬.人民币汇率制度改革：回归有管理的浮动[J].经济研究,2005(8)：24-31
[148]李扬,余维彬.稳步推进人民币汇率制度改革——结合国际经验的探讨[J].财贸经济,2006(1)：10-16
[149]林清泉主编.金融工程[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2005：108
[150]林毅夫.关于制度变迁的经济学理论：诱致性变迁与强制性变迁[A].刘守英等.财产权利与制度变迁[C].上海：上海三联书店,1994：375-378
[151]刘爱文,刘振林和封福霖.汇率目标区双层监控模型与人民币汇率制度选择[J].世界经济与政治论坛,2005(5)：74-77
[152]刘凤娟.人民币实际有效汇率及其波动与我国贸易平衡——基于协整检验与广义脉冲响应函数的实证研究[J].财经理论与实践,2007(9)：48-52
[153]刘光溪.贸易结构的表层转变与贸易增长的“粗放性”[Z].新华文摘,2006(21)： 50-53
[154]刘海虹.人民币汇率制度的产权经济学分析[M].北京：中国经济出版社,2001：12-24
[155]刘鸿儒主编.新金融辞海[Z].北京：改革出版社,1995：355
[156]刘莉亚.我国外汇储备币种结构与收益率的一个估计[J].财经研究,2008(7)： 121-132
[157]刘力臻,谢朝阳.东亚货币合作与人民币汇率制度选择[J].管理世界,2003(3)：34-44
[158]刘沁清.汇率变动、企业行为和内涵经济增长的再刻画[J].国际金融研究,2007(1)：63-67
[159]刘仁伍.全球化背景下的货币政策调控[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2007：135-160
[160]刘世锦.经济体制效率分析导论[M].上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1994：63-64,67-69
[161]刘晓辉.人民币汇率制度选择与转型：基于社会福利视角的分析[M].北京：人民出版社,2008：99-103
[162]刘兴华.人民币汇率制度的选择：基于“三元悖论”视角的理论分析[J].财贸经济,2003(2)：36-40
[163]卢锋.外汇储备过万亿美元现象的经济学透视[N].学习时报,2006年12月18日
[164]罗纳德·麦金农,冈瑟·施纳布尔.中国的金融谜题和全球失衡[J].国际金融研究,2009(2)：34-46
[165]马丹,许少强.中国贸易收支、贸易结构与人民币实际有效汇率[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2005(6)：23-32
[166]马君潞,李泽广.汇率制度选择的经济与非经济原则分析[J].上海财经大学学报,2004(3)：18-25
[167]马君潞,吕剑.人民币汇率制度与金融危机发生概率[J].国际金融研究,2007(9)：53-59
[168]马克思恩格斯全集：第1卷[M].北京：人民出版社,1956：55-57
[169]莫涛.汇率变动、产品附加值和内涵经济增长[J].国际金融研究,2007(1)：58-62
[170]聂名华,马翔.汇率变动与国际直接投资[A].周骏,张中华和朱新蓉.汇率与资本市场：2007年中国金融与投资发展报告[C].北京：中国金融出版社,2008：77-114
[171]聂小刚.经济冲击与汇率制度选择[D].复旦大学博士学位论文,2005
[172]彭玉镏.“汇改”后人民币汇率制度分析[J].当代财经,2009(1)：64-68
[173]齐琦部.论中国汇率制度的选择[J].金融研究,2004(2)：30-43
[174]强永昌,吴兢和陈爱玮.等有关人民币汇率问题的对外贸易分析[J].世界经济研究,2004(8)：4-8
[175]秦宛顺,靳云汇和卜永祥.资本流动、定价行为与汇率制度的福利分析[J].金融研究,2003(1)：1-17
[176]邱东阳.人民币购买力平价——1997-2005年数据的协整分析[J].经济研究,2006(5)：31-40
[177]沙文兵.人民币汇率变动与国内价格水平的传递效应分析[EB/OL]. http://www. drcnet.com.cn/DRCNET.Serch.web/Search.aspx?/
[178]沈国兵,史晋川.汇率制度的选择：不可能三角及扩展[J].世界经济,2002
(11)：3-11
[179]宋国友.中国购买美国国债：来源、收益与影响[J].复旦学报,2008(4)：31-38
[180]苏红,曹家和.征收铸币税改善汇率制度的宏观效率[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2003(3)：67-71
[181]苏平贵.汇率制度选择与货币政策效应——蒙代尔-弗莱明模型在我国的适用性、改进及应用[J].国际金融研究,2003(5)：4-9
[182]孙本文.社会学概论(试讲本)[M].天津：天津人民出版社,1985：157
[183]孙刚,李玥.汇率制度同发展中国家经济稳定性的内在联系[J].世界经济,2000(12)：52-57
[184]孙华妤.固定汇率制度与浮动汇率制度下经济的自动稳定性[J].国际贸易问题,2005(8)：98-104
[185]孙立坚,秦培景和周赞.人民币汇改30年历程及其所面临的挑战[J].世界经济情况,2008(9)：9-20
[186]孙立坚,孙立行.资本管理的有效性和政策的配套性[J].金融研究,2003(1)：18-28
[187]孙立坚.开放经济中的外部冲击效应和汇率安排[M].上海：上海人民出版社,2005：20-128
[188]孙茂辉.人民币自然均衡实际汇率：1978-2004[J].经济研究,2006(11)：92-100
[189]孙兆斌.汇率制度选择与金融危机[J].国际金融研究,2002(3)：14-19
[190]谭小芬.外汇储备持续增加的经济后果分析[J].中央财经大学学报,2008(3)：39-45,86
[191]田国强.现代经济学的基本分析框架与研究方法[Z].新华文摘,2005(11)：52-57
[192]汪茂昌.汇率制度转型的国际经验及对中国的启示[J].世界经济研究,2005(4)：21-27
[193]王爱俭.论现行人民币汇率机制的阶段性和合理性[J].现代财经,2004(1)：8-12
[194]王博.实际冲击、货币冲击与人民币汇率制度的动态演进：一个新的分析框 架[EB/OL].http://www.google.com
[195]王桂贤.内蒙古利用外资的宏观经济效率分析[J].内蒙古金融研究,2005(9)：44-45
[196]王桂贤.人民币在亚洲区域货币合作中的地位分析[J].内蒙古财经学院学报,2006(5)：69-72
[197]王桂贤.现行人民币汇率制度的缺陷及对策[J].前沿,2007(3)：50-52
[198]王曦,才国伟.基与微观形成机制的我国汇率制度改革短期方案[R].中国金融发展高级论坛会议论文,2006年9月
[199]王曦,舒元.当前汇率制度的微宏观效率与汇率制度改革[A].张礼卿.汇率制度改革——国际经验与中国选择[C].北京：中国金融出版社,2005：153-158
[200]王元龙.人民币汇率：制度选择与改革操作[J].经济学动态,2003(7)：34-38
[201]魏巍贤.人民币升值的宏观经济影响评价[J].经济研究,2006(4)：47-57
[202]魏巍贤.中国出口与有效汇率的关系分析[J].统计研究,1997(5)：63-65
[203]吴念鲁,陈全庚.人民币汇率研究(修订本)[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2002：3-153
[204]吴念鲁,陈全庚.人民币汇率研究[M].北京：中国金融出版社,1989：111-112
[205]相勇,章晶.我国现行汇率政策效率研究[J].金融教学与研究,2004(1)：28-30,35
[206]谢多.中国货币、债券和外汇市场的发展及前景[J].中国货币市场,2007(12)：4-16
[207]谢建国,陈漓高.人民币汇率与贸易收支：协整研究与冲击分解[J].世界经济,2002(9)：32-35
[208]熊连庆.对人民币汇率制度选择取向的再探讨[J].当代财经,2004(4)：36-38
[209]徐剑刚,邵华和唐国兴.人民币参考—篮子货币机制的实证分析[J].上海财经大学学报,2007(2)：66-72
[210]徐进前.宏观金融调控中的国际收支调节及效应[J].金融研究,1996(8)：9-14
[211]徐明东.人民币实际汇率变动对我国进出口贸易的影响：1997-2006[J].财经科学,2007(5)：55-58
[212]徐璋勇.对“角点汇率制”在中国的不适应性分析[J].当代财经,2004(7)：28-32
[213]许文彬.三元悖论下我国汇率制度改革探析[J].财经问题研究,2003(7)：43-47
[214]颜伟,刘冬荣.现行人民币汇率制度的缺陷与直接成本分析[J].上海金融,2009(10)： 73-75
[215]易纲,范敏.人民币汇率的决定因素及走势分析[J].经济研究,1997(12)：26-35
[216]易纲.汇率制度的选择[J].金融研究,2000(9)：46-52
[217]余波.开放条件下的人民币汇率安排：效率分析与制度取向[J].财经论丛,2001(4)：49-55
[218]余永定.中国应从亚洲金融危机中吸取的教训[J].金融研究,2000(12)：1-13
[219]俞乔.购买力平价、实际汇率与国际竞争力——关于测算我国加权实际汇率指数的理论方法[J].金融研究,2000(1)：57-62
[220]袁庆明.论制度的效率及其决定[J].江苏社会科学,2002(4)：34-38
[221]约翰·威廉姆森.汇率制度选择的国际经验及其对中国的借鉴意义[A].张礼卿.汇率制度变革——国际经验与中国选择[C].北京：中国金融出版社,2005：2-35
[222]曾先锋.估算汇率弹性的模型和对人民币汇率的实证分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006(2)：42-50
[223]张斌,何帆.货币升值的后果——基于中国经济特征事实的理论框架[J].经济研究,2006(5)：20-29
[224]张斌.人民币汇率重估与汇率制度改革——基于均衡汇率理论的视角[J].管理世界,2004(3)：58-66
[225]张斌.人民币均衡汇率：简约一般均衡下的单方程实证模型研究[J].世界经济,2003(11)：3-12
[226]张纯威.内外失衡格局下我国货币政策的内在协同[J].财贸经济,2009(1)：40-46
[227]张纯威.人民币名义汇率超稳定研究[M].北京：经济管理出版社,2005：183-192
[228]张纯威.我国经济外部失衡的量化分解与评估[J].国际金融研究,2008(1)：75-80
[229]张静,汪寿阳.汇率制度的研究[J].国际技术经济研究,2004(1)：16-21
[230]张礼卿.人民币汇率制度：现状、改革方向和近期选择[J].国际金融研究, 2004(10)：12-17
[231]张萌,钟晓兵.人民币现行汇率制度的成本效应分析[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报(社会科学版),2004(4)：52-56
[232]张曙光,张斌.外汇储备持续积累的经济后果[J].经济研究,2007(4)：45-51
[233]张曙光.人民币汇率问题：升值及其成本-收益分析[J].经济研究,2005(5)：17-30
[234]张维迎,博弈论与信息经济学[M].上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1996：273-275
[235]张晓朴.均衡与失调：1978-1999人民币汇率合理性评估[J].金融研究,2000(8)： 16-27
[236]张宇燕.经济发展与制度选择：对制度的经济分析[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1992：120
[237]赵蓓文.丛“蒙代尔三角”看人民币汇率制度的选择[J].世界经济研究,2004(7)：31-35
[238]赵大平.汇率传递及其对贸易平衡的影响[J].世界经济研究,2005(9)：37-40,47
[239]赵进文,高辉和褚云皓.人民币篮子货币的测定与实证分析[J].财经研究,2006(1)：20-35
[240]郑杭生.社会学概论新论[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1987：253
[241]周继忠,金洪飞.发展中国家汇率制度安排的名与实[J].财经研究,2008(1)：39-50
[242]周茂荣,郭建泉.放弃成本、政府偏好与资本控制：一个审慎的机会主义汇制选择模型[J].经济研究,2004(5)：67-76
[243]周铁军,刘传哲.中国国际收支与货币供给关联性的实证分析：1996-2007[J].国际金融研究,2009(3)：82-87
[244]朱孟楠,陈晞.人民币汇率制度变迁的路径依赖分析——基于新制度经济学的视角[J].金融理论与实践,2008(11)：3-6
[245]邹宏元,李晓斌.人民币汇率偏离均衡程度的估计：在宏观经济平衡框架下的分析[J].国际金融研究,2008(10)：68-74
①具体见王曦,才国伟.基于微观形成机制的我国汇率制度改革短期方案[R].中国金融发展高级论坛会议论文,2006
①[德]柯武刚,史漫飞.制度经济学——社会秩序与公共政策[M].韩朝华译.北京：商务印书馆,2000：32-33
②[美]凡勃伦.有闲阶级论[M].蔡受百译.北京：商务印书馆,1964：139
③[美]约翰·康芒斯.制度经济学：上册[M].于树生译.北京：商务印书馆,1962：87
①[美]约翰·康芒斯.制度经济学：上册[M].于树生译.北京：商务印书馆,1962：86
②[美]道格拉斯·c.诺斯.制度、制度变迁与经济绩效[M].刘守英译.上海：上海三联书店,1994：3
③[美]道格拉斯·C.诺斯.制度、制度变迁与经济绩效[M].刘守英译.上海：上海三联书店,1994：3-4
④[美]道格拉斯·C.诺斯.经济史中的结构与变迁[M].陈郁,罗华平等译.上海：上海三联书店,1994：225-226
⑤[美]R.科斯,A.阿尔钦和D.诺斯等.财产权利与制度变迁[C].刘守英等译.上海：上海三联书店,1994：253
⑥[美]R.科斯,A.阿尔钦和D.诺斯等.财产权利与制度变迁[C].刘守英等译.上海：上海三联书店,1994：329
①林毅夫.关于制度变迁的经济学理论：诱致性变迁与强制性变迁[A].刘守英等.财产权利与制度变迁[C].上海：上海三联书店,1994：375
②黄少安.产权经济学[M].济南：山东人民出版社,1995：90
③[美]塞缪尔·P·亨廷顿.变化社会中的政治秩序[M].上海：上海三联书店,1989：12
④孙本文.社会学概论(试讲本)[M].天津：天津人民出版社,1985：157
⑤[日]青木昌彦.比较制度分析[M].上海：上海远东出版社,2001：28
⑥郑杭生.社会学概论新论[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1987：253
①刘鸿儒主编.新金融辞海[Z].北京：改革出版社,1995：355
②姜波克.国际金融新编[M].上海：复旦大学出版社,2001：135
③邓立立(2006)指出,汇率制度选择的主体有三个层次：一国作为主体对汇率制度的选择、区域范围的汇率制度选择以及国际范围的汇率安排。参见邓立立.汇率制度的选择与发展趋势研究[M].大连：东北财经大学出版社,2006：9-10。由于本文研究人民币汇率制度效率问题,不考虑区域及国际货币合作因素,因此,本文所讨论的汇率制度选择的主体是第一个层次的。
①据Frankel(2003)的研究,Ghosh等(2002)、LYS(2002)、RR(2004)三种实际分类法趋于一致的情形大约在35%-45%之间。Bleaney和Francisco(2007)的研究也得到了同样的结论。
②马克思恩格斯全集：第1卷[M].北京：人民出版社,1956：55-57
①顾海良,郭建青和顾海兵主编译.简明帕氏新经济学辞典[Z].北京：中国经济出报社,1991：16
②林清泉主编.金融工程[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2005：108
①如科斯的产权理论认为有效率的产权体系实施社会产出最大化或降低交易成本促进经济增长的体系；德姆塞茨的契约理论强调激励组合的作用。其共同点是都侧重于交易成本的最小化,尽可能把外部利润内部化。详见[美]哈罗德·德姆塞茨.所有权、控制与企业[M].北京：经济科学出版社,1999：14-33,333-350
②诺斯.经济史中的结构与变迁[M].陈郁,罗华平等译.上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1994：12
③诺斯.经济史中的结构与变迁[M].陈郁,罗华平等译.上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1994：17
①North,D. C. Institution, institution change and economic performance[M]. NY, Cambridge University Press,1990: 108
②如布罗姆利认为制度效率是制度绩效和制度实施效率的统一。制度绩效是制度通过降低交易成本对资源配置、经济增长的作用；制度实施效率是制度被制度主体认同、遵循的程度。见布罗姆利.经济利益与经济制度——公共政策的理论基础[M].上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1996：2-3。卢瑟福提出了制度的生产性或动态性效率标准,见卢瑟福.经济学中的制度——老制度主义和新制度主义[M].北京：中国社会科学出版社,1999：186
①刘世锦.经济体制效率分析导论[M].上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1994：63-64
②刘世锦.经济体制效率分析导论[M].上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1994：67-69
③林毅夫.诱致性制度变迁与强制性制度变迁——关于制度变迁的经济学理论[A].R.科斯等.财产权利与制度变迁[C].刘守英等译.上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1994：283-304
④张维迎.博弈论与信息经济学[M].上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1996：2-3
①李怀.制度生命周期与制度效率递减[J].管理世界,1999(3)：68-77
②袁庆明.论制度效率及其决定[J].江苏社会科学,2002(4)：34-38
③辛鸣.制度评价的标准选择[Z].新华文摘,2005(4)：5-8
④田国强.现代经济学的基本分析框架与研究方法[Z].新华文摘,2005(11)：52-57
①胡浩志.交易费用计量研究述评[J].理论经济学,2007(10)：59-66
①黎诣远.微观经济分析(下)[M].北京：清华大学出版社,1996：2
②凯恩斯(1923)最早提出并划分了一国的币值稳定包括“内部稳定”(即价格稳定)和“外部稳定”(汇率稳定和国际收支平衡)。我国1994年的汇率制度改革,将汇率政策目标界定为“维持汇率稳定”,2005年的汇率制度改革进一步将汇率政策目标界定为“保持人民币汇率在合理、均衡水平上的基本稳定,促进国际收支基本平衡,维护宏观经济和金融市场的稳定”,可见,人民币汇率制度的实施是以追求币值稳定、经济增长和国际收支平衡为目标的。
①[美]保罗·萨缪尔森,威廉·诺德豪斯.经济学[M].萧琛主译.北京：人民邮电出版社,2004：334-339
①此处文献综述参考了李辉.人民币有效汇率对我国进出口贸易的影响[J].金融教学与研究,2008(6)：29-35
[1]Ahearne, A. William Cline & Kyung Tae Lee et al. Global imbalances:time for action[R].Policy Briefs in International Economics 2007-4(March). Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics
[2]Anderson Jonathan. China:reminders on the RMB[R].UBS Investment Research, Asian Economic Comment, November 5,2004
[3]Anderson Jonathan. The complete RMB handbook[A],4th ed. UBS Investment Research Asian Focus, September 16,2006
[4]Annka A.& Jonny N. Real exchang rate and fundamentals:evidence from 15 OECD countries[J]. Open Economies Review,2000(11):101-132
[5]Assery & Peel. The effects of exchange rate volatility on exports[J].Econimics Letters,1991(37):173-177
[6]Bailey M. J., Tavlas G. S.& Ulan M. The impact of exchange rate volatility on export growth:some theoretical considerations and empirical results [J] Journal of Policy Modeling,1987(9):225-243
[7]Baxter, M.& Stockman, A.C..Business cycles and the exchange rate regime:some international evidence [J] Journal of Monetary Economics,1989,23(3):377-400
[8]Bergsten, C. Fred. An action plan to stop the market manipulators now[N].Financial Times, March 14,2005
[9]Bergsten, C. Fred. The dollar and the renminbi[R]. Statement before the hearing on US economic relations with China:strategies on exchange rates and market access. Subcommittee on Security and International Trade and Finance, Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, United States Senate, Washington, May 23,2007
[10]Bergsten, C.F. China bashing 2004[J]. International Economics Policy Brief, 2004(5):38-72
[11]Bleaney, Michael & Francisco, Manuela. Classifying exchange rate regimes:a statistical analysis of alternative methods[R].University of Nottingham, CREDIT Research Paper, No.07/05,2007
[12]Bubula, Andrea & Inci Otker-Robe. Are pegged and intermediate exchange rate regimes more crisis-prone?[R].IMF Working Paper,2003, No.03/223
[13]Calvo, Guillermo A.. Fixed versus flexible exchange rates[EB/OL]. http://www.bsos.umd.edu/ciecalvo.htm
[14]Calvo, Guillermo & Reinhart. Fear of floating[J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2002(117):379-408
[15]Campbell, D.E. Resource allocation mechanisms[M].Cambridge University Press, 1987:58-102
[16]Chang, R.& Velasco, A. Exchange rate policy for developing countries [J]. American Economic Review,2000(90):112-146
[17]Chang, R.& Velasco, A. Financial fragility and the exchange rate regime [R]. NBER Working Paper,1998, No.6469
[18]Clark, P. B. Uncertainty, exchange risk, and the level of international trade[J]. Western Economic Journal,1973(11):302-313
[19]Coudert, V.& M. Dubert. Does exchange rate regime explain differences in economic results for Asian countries?[R].CEPII Working Paper,2004, No.2003-5
[20]Cushman, D. The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade[J]. Journal of International Economics,1983(9):45-63
[21]Cushman, D. The effects of real exchange rate risk on international trade[J]. Journal of International Economics,1983(1):45-63
[22]Dickey D.A.& Fuller, W.A. Distribution of the estimators of autoregressive time series with a unit root[J].Journal of American Statistical Association,1979(74): 427-431
[23]Dornbusch, R. Fewer monies, better monies [R].NBER Working Paper,2001, No.8324
[24]Dubas, J.M., Byung-Joo Lee & N.C. Mark. Effective exchange rate classifications and growth[R].NBER Working Paper,2005, No.11272
[25]Dunaway, S.& Xiangming Li. Estimating China's "equilibrium" real exchange rate[R].IMF Working Paper,2005/202
[26]Edwards, S. Real and monetary determinants of real exchange behavior [J]. Journal
of Development Economics,1988(29):311-341
[27]Edwards, Sebastian.The determinants of the choice between fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes[R].NBER Working Paper 1996, No.5756
[28]Eichengreen, B.& A.Rose. Staying afloating when the wind shifts:external factors and emerging market banking crisis [R].NBER Working Paper 6370, 1998
[29]Eichengreen, B.& C. Arteta. Banking crises in emerging markets:risks and red herrings[R].University of California, Berkeley, Mimeo,2000
[30]Eichengreen, B. International monetary arrangements for the 21st century [M]. Washington, D.C.:Brookings Institution,1994:220-239
[31]Eichengreen, B.& Hausmann R. Exchange rates and financial fragility [R].NBER Working Paper,1999,No.7418
[32]Either, W J. International trade and forward exchange market{J}.American Economic Review,1973(63):494-503
[33]Eleanor Doyle. Exchange rate volatility and Irish-UK trade,1979-1992 [J].Applied Economics,2001(2):249
[34]Fama E.F. Efficient capital markets:□[J].Journal of Finance,1991,46(5):1575-1617
[35]Fama E.F. Efficient capital markets:a review of theory and empirical work[J]. Journal of Finance,1970(25):383-417
[36]Flood, R.& Rose, A.. Fixing exchange rates:a virtual quest for fundamentals [J]. Journal of Monetary Economics,1995,36(1):3-38
[37]Frankel J. A.& Wei Shangjin. Trade blocks and currency blocks[R].NBER Working Paper,1993, No.4335
[38]Frankel, J.A.. No single currency regimes is right for all countries or at all times[R].NBER Working Papers,1999, No.7338
[39]Frankel, Jeffrey A. Experiences of and lessons from exchange rate regimes in emerging economies[R].NBER Working Paper,2003, No.10032
[40]Frankel, Jeffrey. Monetary regime choices for a semi-open country [A].Capital Controls, Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in The World Economy, edited by Sebastian Edwards. Cambridge, UK:Cambridge University Press,1995:35-69.
[41]Ghosh, Atish R., Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf. Exchange rate regimes: choices and consequences[M].Cambridge, Massachussetts:MIT Press,2002:5-17
[42]Ghosh, Atish R., Anne-Marie Gulde & Jonathan D. Ostry et al. Dose the nominal exchange rate regime matter?[R].NBER Working Paper 1997, No.5874
[43]Ghosh, Atish R., Anne-Marie, Gulde & Holger C. Wolf. Exchange rate regimes: choices and consequences[M].Cambridge, Massachusetts:MIT Press,2002:21-78
[44]Goldstein, M.& Michael Mussa. The Fund appears to be sleeping at the wheel[N]. Financial Times, October 3,2005
[45]Goldstein, Morris. A (lack of) progress report on China's exchange rate policies[R].Peterson Institute for International Economics Working Paper 2007b-5 (June).
[46]Goldstein, Morris. Adjusting China's exchange rate policies[R].Working Paper 2004-1
[47]Goldstein, Morris. Exchange rates, fair play, and the "grand bargain"[N].Financial Times,2006a, April 21
[48]Goldstein, Morris. Renminbi controversies[J].Cato Journal,2006b (2):(Spring/ Summer)
[49]Goldstein, Morris. The IMF as global umpire for exchange rate policies [A]. In C. Fred Bergsten and the world economy. Ed. Michael Mussa. Washington:Peterson Institute for International Economics.2007a
[50]Golstein, M.& Nicholas R. Lardy. China's exchange rate policy dilemma[J]. American Economic Review,2006(96):422-426
[51]Goldstein, M.& Turner. Banking crises in emerging economies:origins and policy options [R].BIS Economic Papers,1996, No.46
[52]Gotur P. Effects of exchange rate volatility on trade:some further evidence[J].IMF Staff Papers,1985(32):475-512
[53]Granger, E.R. Co-integration and error correction:representation, estimation and testing[J].Econometric,1987(55):251-276
[54]Green, Stephen. China:calling all PBoC FX sterilization geeks[N].Standard Chartered on the Ground-Asia,2007b:June 18
[55]Green, Stephen. This...is...Sparta!!![N].Standard Chartered on the Ground-Asia, 2007a:April 12
[56]Haizhou HUANG & Shuilin WANG. Exchange rate regimes:China's experience and choices[J].China Economic Review,2004(15):336-342
[57]Hausmann R., Gavin M.& Pages-Serra C. et al. Financial turmoil and the choice of exchange rate regime[R].Inter-American Development Bank, Mimeo,1999
[58]Helpman, E. An exploration in the theory of exchange-rate regimes[J] Journal of Political Economy,1981,89(5):865-890
[59]Hooper, P.& S. W. Kohlhagen. The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade [J] Journal of International Economics, 1978(8):483-511
[60]IMF. Annual report on exchange arrangements and exchange restrictions [EB/OL]. 2003-2008. http:///www.imf.org
[61]IMF. Classification of exchange rate arrangements and monetary policy frameworks[R].1999. http:///www.imf.org/external/np/mfd/er/index.asp
[62]Jan P.Voon, Li Guangzhong & Jimmy Ran. Does China really lose from RMB revaluation? evidence from some export industries [J]. Applied Economics, 2006(38):156-193
[63]Jianping Ding & Ying Zeng. China's approach to its exchange rate mechanism: adaptability of BBC rules[J].China & world Economy,2005(5):43-55
[64]Johnson, S. Statistical analysis of co-integration vectors [J] Journal of Economic and Control,1988(12):231-254
[65]Krugman, Paul, R.. The eternal triangle:explaining international financial perplexity[EB/OL].1999. http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/triangle.html.
[66]Krugman, Paul. A model of balance of payments crises[J] Journal of Money,Credit and Banking,1979(11):311-325
[67]Kurt Schuler. Classifying exchange rate[R].2007.http:///www.dollarization.org
[68]Kuttner, Kenneth N.,& Adam S. Posen. Beyond bipolar:a three-dimensional assessment of monetary frameworks [J]. International Journal of Finance and Economics,2001,6(4):369-387
[69]Lachman, Desmond. Complacemency at the IMF[N].Gazeta Mercantil, October 3,2007
[70]Lardy, Nicholas R. China:toward a consumption-driven growth path[Z].Policy Briefs in International Economics,2006-6.Washington:Institute for International Economics.
[71]Lardy, N. R. Exchange rate and monetary policy in China[J].Cato Journal,2005(1): 92-112
[72]Larrain, F.& A. Velasco. Exchange-rate policy in emerging-market economies:the case for floating[R].Essays in International Economics,2001, No.224
[73]Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Federico Sturzenegger. Classifying exchange rate regimes:deeds vs. words[J].European Economic Review,2005 (49):1603-1635
[74]Levy-Yeyati, E.& F. Sturzenegger. To float or to fix:evidence on the impact of exchange rate regime on growth[J].American Economic Review,2003, 93(4):1173-1193
[75]Meese & Rogoff. Empirical exchange rate models of the Seventies:do they fit out of sample? [J] Journal of International Economics,1983(14):423-467
[76]Morris Goldstein & Nicholas R. Lardy. China's exchange rate policy:an overview of some key issues [A].Peterson Institute for International Economics,2008:1-60
[77]Morris, G. Renminbi appreciation seen in China's own best interest[J]. IMF Survey,2005(2):205-238
[78]Mundell, R. A theory of optimum currency areas[J].American Economic Review, 1961(51):657-665
[79]Mundell, R. Inflation and real interest[J]. Journal of Political Economics, 1963(71):280-283
[80]Mundell, R. The monetary dynamics of international adjustment under fixed and floating exchange rates[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,1960(74):227-257
[81]Mundell, R.A. The appropriate use of monetary and fiscal policy for internal and external stability[R].IMF Staff Papers,1962(9):70-79
[82]Mundell, Robert. China's exchange rate:the case for the status quo [R].Paper presented at the International Monetary Fund Seminar on the foreign exchange system, Dalian, China, May 26-27,2004
[83]Mussa, Michael. The dollar and the current account:how much should we worry?[J] Journal of Policy Modeling,2007(29):691-696
[84]Nitithanprapas, Isriya & Thomas D. Willett. Classifying exchange rate regimes[J]. http:///econ.claremontmckenna.edu/papers/2002-22.pdf
[85]Obstfeld, Maurice & Kenneth Rogoff. Exchange rate dynamics redux[J] Journal of Political Economy,1995(3):624-660
[86]Prasad, Iswar, Thomas Rumbaugh & Qing Wang. Putting the cart before the horse? Capital account liberalization and exchange rate flexibility in China[R].IMF Policy Discussion 2005/1
[87]Preeg, Ernest. Exchange rate manipulation to gain an unfair competitive advantage [A]. In Dollar Overvaluation and the Global Economy, ed. C. Fred Bergsten and John Williamson,2003, Washington:Institute for International Economics.
[88]Qian Ying & Panos Varangis. Does exchange rate volatility hinder export Growth[J].Emipirical Economics,1994(19):371-396
[89]Reinhart, Carmen M.& Rogoff, Kenneth. The modern history of exchange rate arrangements:a reinterpretation[R].NBER Working Paper,2002, No.8963
[90]Reinhart, Carmen. The mirage of floating exchange rate[J]. American Economic Review,2000(90):65-70
[91]Rogoff, K. et al. Evolution and performance of exchange rate regimes [R].IMF Working Paper,2003, No.03/243
[92]Sauer C.& Bohara A. C. Exchange rate volatility and exports:regional difference between developing and industrial countries [J].Review of International Economies, 2001,9(1):133-152
[93]Spiegel, M.M. A look at China's new exchange rate regime[J].FRBSF Economic Letter,2005(23):1-4
[94]Stone, Mark R.& Ashok J. Bhundia. A new taxonomy of monetary regimes[R]. IMF Working Paper,2004, No.04/191
[95]Velasco & Cespedes L. F. Exchange rate arrangements:a developing country perspective [Z].Unpublished manuscript,1999
[96]William R. Cline & John Williamson. Estimates of the equilibrium exchange rate of the renminbi:is there a consensus and, if not, why not?[A]. Peterson Institute for International Economics,2008:131-155
[97]Wolf, Holger. Exchange rate regime choice and consequences[EB/OL]. http://www.ifk-cfs.de
[98]Zhichao ZHANG. Choosing an exchange rate regime during economic transition: the case of China[J].China Economic Review,2001(12):203-226
[99][德]柯武刚,史漫飞.制度经济学——社会秩序与公共政策[M].韩朝华译.北京：商务印书馆,2000：32-33
[100][美]道格拉斯·C.诺斯.经济史中的结构与变迁[M].陈郁,罗华平等译.上海：上海三联书店,1994：225-226
[101][美]道格拉斯·C.诺斯.制度、制度变迁与经济绩效[M].刘守英等译.上海：上海三联书店,1994：3-4
[102][美]凡勃伦.有闲阶级论[M].蔡受百译.北京：商务印书馆,1964：139
[103][美]塞缪尔·P.亨廷顿.变化社会中的政治秩序[M].上海：上海三联书店,1989：12
[104][美]约翰·康芒斯.制度经济学：上册[M].于树生译.北京：商务印书馆,1962：86-87
[105][日]青木昌彦.比较制度分析[M].上海：上海远东出版社,2001：28
[106][英]露西沃·萨诺,马克·P.泰勒.汇率经济学[M].成都：西南财经大学出版社,2006：45-90
[107]T.W.舒尔茨.制度与人的经济价值的不断提高[A].刘守英等.财产权利与制度变迁[C].上海：上海三联书店,1994：253
[108]V.W.拉坦.诱致性制度变迁理论[A].刘守英等.财产权利与制度变迁[C].上海：上海三联书店,1994：329
[109]巴曙松,吴博和朱元倩.汇率制度改革后人民币有效汇率测算及对国际贸易、外汇储备的影响分析[J].国际金融研究,2007(4)：56-62
[110]白钦先.白钦先经济金融文集(第二版)[C].北京：中国金融出版社,1999： 97-135,230-239,295-303
[111]卜永祥,Rod Tyers.中国均衡实际有效汇率：一个总量一般均衡分析[J].经济研究,2001(6)：21-32
[112]陈平,王曦.人民币汇率的非均衡分析与汇率制度的宏观效率[J].经济研究,2002(6)：23-31
[113]陈三毛.汇率制度：从现实选择到最优制度[J].经济前沿,2009(9)：46-59
[114]储幼阳.论汇率制度转换——从固定汇率走向浮动汇率[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2006：42-56
[115]戴维斯,诺斯.制度变迁的理论：概念与原因[A].刘守英等.财产权利与制度变迁[C].上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1994：271
[116]丁建平,周建芳和韩栋.认真总结汇率制度改革成果,积极探讨深化改革发展思路[J].国际金融研究,2009(3)：4-7
[117]丁剑平,曾芳琴.外汇市场微观结构理论与实证[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2006：37-90
[118]丁剑平.关于现行的人民币汇率机制的可持续性研究[J].国际金融研究,2003(5)：48-55
[119]杜莉.双重汇率制度研究[M].上海：上海财经大学出版社,2003：45-60
[120]封思贤.人民币实际有效汇率的变化对我国进出口的影响[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2007(4)：3-13
[121]冯用富.汇率目标区：中国金融进一步开放中汇率制度的选择[J].财贸经济,2001(2)：49-54
[122]冯用富.稳定人民币汇率与制度改革[J].经济学动态,2005(4)：50-55
[123]冯用富.中国金融进一步开放中汇率制度选择的方向[J].金融研究,2000(7)：52-61
[124]顾海良,郭建青和顾海兵主编译.简明帕氏新经济学辞典[Z].北京：中国经济出报社,1991：167
[125]郭建泉.汇率制度的演变趋势和我国的选择[J].管理世界,2001(3)：121-126
[126]韩剑,徐康宁.基于开放经济下交易费用的汇率制度选择——兼论现行人民币汇率制度的改革方向[J].东南大学学报,2004(11)：25-28
[127]何慧刚.现行人民币汇率制度与宏观经济政策效应——兼论人民币汇率制度 改革[J].广东商学院学报,2004(5)：71-75
[128]贺力平,蔡兴.从国际经验看中国国际收支双顺差之“迷”[J].国际金融研究,2008(9)：11-18
[129]贺立平.人民币汇率体制的历史演变及其启示[J].国际经济评论,2005(7-8)：36-39
[130]赫国胜.汇率决定理论研究[M].沈阳：辽宁大学出版社,1996：209-226
[131]胡浩志.交易费用计量研究述评[J].理论经济学,2007(10)：59-66
[132]黄少安.产权经济学[M].济南：山东人民出版社,1995：90
[133]黄志刚,刘惠好.人民币汇率形成机制的特点及现实走势分析：2005-2008[J].海南金融,2009(4)：14-17
[134]姜波克.国际金融新编[Z].上海：复旦大学出版社,2001：135
[135]姜波克.均衡汇率理论与政策新框架的三探索——基于自然资源角度的分析[J].国际金融研究,2007(1)：53-57
[136]姜春.人民币升值之争的理论反思：新制度经济学的解释[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2004(6)：41-48
[137]黎诣远.微观经济分析[M].北京：清华大学出版社,1996：2
[138]李波.投机性攻击、货币升值危机与人民币汇率制度改革[J].比较,2005(21)：191-203
[139]李广众,Jan P. Voon.实际汇率错位、汇率波动性及其对制造业出口贸易影响的实证分析：1978-1998年平行数据研究[J].管理世界,2004(11)：22-28
[140]李海菠.人民币实际汇率与中国对外贸易关系[J].世界经济研究,2003(7)：42-47
[141]李建伟,余明.人民币有效汇率的波动及其对中国经济增长的影响[J].世界经济,2003(11)：21-34
[142]李婧.解析人民币钉住美元制[J].管理世界,2002(9)：37-46
[143]李婧.人民币汇率制度的改革取向及退出战略[J].国际经济评论,2003(1)：12-16
[144]李祺.汇率制度转型：效率、均衡与信誉——基于均衡汇率理论的视角[D].博士学位论文,上海社会科学院,2006
[145]李若谷.制度适宜与经济发展[M].北京：人民出版社,2008：55
[146]李未无.实际汇率与经济增长：来自中国的证据[J].管理世界,2005(2)：56-61
[147]李扬,余维彬.人民币汇率制度改革：回归有管理的浮动[J].经济研究,2005(8)：24-31
[148]李扬,余维彬.稳步推进人民币汇率制度改革——结合国际经验的探讨[J].财贸经济,2006(1)：10-16
[149]林清泉主编.金融工程[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2005：108
[150]林毅夫.关于制度变迁的经济学理论：诱致性变迁与强制性变迁[A].刘守英等.财产权利与制度变迁[C].上海：上海三联书店,1994：375-378
[151]刘爱文,刘振林和封福霖.汇率目标区双层监控模型与人民币汇率制度选择[J].世界经济与政治论坛,2005(5)：74-77
[152]刘凤娟.人民币实际有效汇率及其波动与我国贸易平衡——基于协整检验与广义脉冲响应函数的实证研究[J].财经理论与实践,2007(9)：48-52
[153]刘光溪.贸易结构的表层转变与贸易增长的“粗放性”[Z].新华文摘,2006(21)： 50-53
[154]刘海虹.人民币汇率制度的产权经济学分析[M].北京：中国经济出版社,2001：12-24
[155]刘鸿儒主编.新金融辞海[Z].北京：改革出版社,1995：355
[156]刘莉亚.我国外汇储备币种结构与收益率的一个估计[J].财经研究,2008(7)： 121-132
[157]刘力臻,谢朝阳.东亚货币合作与人民币汇率制度选择[J].管理世界,2003(3)：34-44
[158]刘沁清.汇率变动、企业行为和内涵经济增长的再刻画[J].国际金融研究,2007(1)：63-67
[159]刘仁伍.全球化背景下的货币政策调控[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社,2007：135-160
[160]刘世锦.经济体制效率分析导论[M].上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1994：63-64,67-69
[161]刘晓辉.人民币汇率制度选择与转型：基于社会福利视角的分析[M].北京：人民出版社,2008：99-103
[162]刘兴华.人民币汇率制度的选择：基于“三元悖论”视角的理论分析[J].财贸经济,2003(2)：36-40
[163]卢锋.外汇储备过万亿美元现象的经济学透视[N].学习时报,2006年12月18日
[164]罗纳德·麦金农,冈瑟·施纳布尔.中国的金融谜题和全球失衡[J].国际金融研究,2009(2)：34-46
[165]马丹,许少强.中国贸易收支、贸易结构与人民币实际有效汇率[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2005(6)：23-32
[166]马君潞,李泽广.汇率制度选择的经济与非经济原则分析[J].上海财经大学学报,2004(3)：18-25
[167]马君潞,吕剑.人民币汇率制度与金融危机发生概率[J].国际金融研究,2007(9)：53-59
[168]马克思恩格斯全集：第1卷[M].北京：人民出版社,1956：55-57
[169]莫涛.汇率变动、产品附加值和内涵经济增长[J].国际金融研究,2007(1)：58-62
[170]聂名华,马翔.汇率变动与国际直接投资[A].周骏,张中华和朱新蓉.汇率与资本市场：2007年中国金融与投资发展报告[C].北京：中国金融出版社,2008：77-114
[171]聂小刚.经济冲击与汇率制度选择[D].复旦大学博士学位论文,2005
[172]彭玉镏.“汇改”后人民币汇率制度分析[J].当代财经,2009(1)：64-68
[173]齐琦部.论中国汇率制度的选择[J].金融研究,2004(2)：30-43
[174]强永昌,吴兢和陈爱玮.等有关人民币汇率问题的对外贸易分析[J].世界经济研究,2004(8)：4-8
[175]秦宛顺,靳云汇和卜永祥.资本流动、定价行为与汇率制度的福利分析[J].金融研究,2003(1)：1-17
[176]邱东阳.人民币购买力平价——1997-2005年数据的协整分析[J].经济研究,2006(5)：31-40
[177]沙文兵.人民币汇率变动与国内价格水平的传递效应分析[EB/OL]. http://www. drcnet.com.cn/DRCNET.Serch.web/Search.aspx?/
[178]沈国兵,史晋川.汇率制度的选择：不可能三角及扩展[J].世界经济,2002
(11)：3-11
[179]宋国友.中国购买美国国债：来源、收益与影响[J].复旦学报,2008(4)：31-38
[180]苏红,曹家和.征收铸币税改善汇率制度的宏观效率[J].河海大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2003(3)：67-71
[181]苏平贵.汇率制度选择与货币政策效应——蒙代尔-弗莱明模型在我国的适用性、改进及应用[J].国际金融研究,2003(5)：4-9
[182]孙本文.社会学概论(试讲本)[M].天津：天津人民出版社,1985：157
[183]孙刚,李玥.汇率制度同发展中国家经济稳定性的内在联系[J].世界经济,2000(12)：52-57
[184]孙华妤.固定汇率制度与浮动汇率制度下经济的自动稳定性[J].国际贸易问题,2005(8)：98-104
[185]孙立坚,秦培景和周赞.人民币汇改30年历程及其所面临的挑战[J].世界经济情况,2008(9)：9-20
[186]孙立坚,孙立行.资本管理的有效性和政策的配套性[J].金融研究,2003(1)：18-28
[187]孙立坚.开放经济中的外部冲击效应和汇率安排[M].上海：上海人民出版社,2005：20-128
[188]孙茂辉.人民币自然均衡实际汇率：1978-2004[J].经济研究,2006(11)：92-100
[189]孙兆斌.汇率制度选择与金融危机[J].国际金融研究,2002(3)：14-19
[190]谭小芬.外汇储备持续增加的经济后果分析[J].中央财经大学学报,2008(3)：39-45,86
[191]田国强.现代经济学的基本分析框架与研究方法[Z].新华文摘,2005(11)：52-57
[192]汪茂昌.汇率制度转型的国际经验及对中国的启示[J].世界经济研究,2005(4)：21-27
[193]王爱俭.论现行人民币汇率机制的阶段性和合理性[J].现代财经,2004(1)：8-12
[194]王博.实际冲击、货币冲击与人民币汇率制度的动态演进：一个新的分析框 架[EB/OL].http://www.google.com
[195]王桂贤.内蒙古利用外资的宏观经济效率分析[J].内蒙古金融研究,2005(9)：44-45
[196]王桂贤.人民币在亚洲区域货币合作中的地位分析[J].内蒙古财经学院学报,2006(5)：69-72
[197]王桂贤.现行人民币汇率制度的缺陷及对策[J].前沿,2007(3)：50-52
[198]王曦,才国伟.基与微观形成机制的我国汇率制度改革短期方案[R].中国金融发展高级论坛会议论文,2006年9月
[199]王曦,舒元.当前汇率制度的微宏观效率与汇率制度改革[A].张礼卿.汇率制度改革——国际经验与中国选择[C].北京：中国金融出版社,2005：153-158
[200]王元龙.人民币汇率：制度选择与改革操作[J].经济学动态,2003(7)：34-38
[201]魏巍贤.人民币升值的宏观经济影响评价[J].经济研究,2006(4)：47-57
[202]魏巍贤.中国出口与有效汇率的关系分析[J].统计研究,1997(5)：63-65
[203]吴念鲁,陈全庚.人民币汇率研究(修订本)[M].北京：中国金融出版社,2002：3-153
[204]吴念鲁,陈全庚.人民币汇率研究[M].北京：中国金融出版社,1989：111-112
[205]相勇,章晶.我国现行汇率政策效率研究[J].金融教学与研究,2004(1)：28-30,35
[206]谢多.中国货币、债券和外汇市场的发展及前景[J].中国货币市场,2007(12)：4-16
[207]谢建国,陈漓高.人民币汇率与贸易收支：协整研究与冲击分解[J].世界经济,2002(9)：32-35
[208]熊连庆.对人民币汇率制度选择取向的再探讨[J].当代财经,2004(4)：36-38
[209]徐剑刚,邵华和唐国兴.人民币参考—篮子货币机制的实证分析[J].上海财经大学学报,2007(2)：66-72
[210]徐进前.宏观金融调控中的国际收支调节及效应[J].金融研究,1996(8)：9-14
[211]徐明东.人民币实际汇率变动对我国进出口贸易的影响：1997-2006[J].财经科学,2007(5)：55-58
[212]徐璋勇.对“角点汇率制”在中国的不适应性分析[J].当代财经,2004(7)：28-32
[213]许文彬.三元悖论下我国汇率制度改革探析[J].财经问题研究,2003(7)：43-47
[214]颜伟,刘冬荣.现行人民币汇率制度的缺陷与直接成本分析[J].上海金融,2009(10)： 73-75
[215]易纲,范敏.人民币汇率的决定因素及走势分析[J].经济研究,1997(12)：26-35
[216]易纲.汇率制度的选择[J].金融研究,2000(9)：46-52
[217]余波.开放条件下的人民币汇率安排：效率分析与制度取向[J].财经论丛,2001(4)：49-55
[218]余永定.中国应从亚洲金融危机中吸取的教训[J].金融研究,2000(12)：1-13
[219]俞乔.购买力平价、实际汇率与国际竞争力——关于测算我国加权实际汇率指数的理论方法[J].金融研究,2000(1)：57-62
[220]袁庆明.论制度的效率及其决定[J].江苏社会科学,2002(4)：34-38
[221]约翰·威廉姆森.汇率制度选择的国际经验及其对中国的借鉴意义[A].张礼卿.汇率制度变革——国际经验与中国选择[C].北京：中国金融出版社,2005：2-35
[222]曾先锋.估算汇率弹性的模型和对人民币汇率的实证分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006(2)：42-50
[223]张斌,何帆.货币升值的后果——基于中国经济特征事实的理论框架[J].经济研究,2006(5)：20-29
[224]张斌.人民币汇率重估与汇率制度改革——基于均衡汇率理论的视角[J].管理世界,2004(3)：58-66
[225]张斌.人民币均衡汇率：简约一般均衡下的单方程实证模型研究[J].世界经济,2003(11)：3-12
[226]张纯威.内外失衡格局下我国货币政策的内在协同[J].财贸经济,2009(1)：40-46
[227]张纯威.人民币名义汇率超稳定研究[M].北京：经济管理出版社,2005：183-192
[228]张纯威.我国经济外部失衡的量化分解与评估[J].国际金融研究,2008(1)：75-80
[229]张静,汪寿阳.汇率制度的研究[J].国际技术经济研究,2004(1)：16-21
[230]张礼卿.人民币汇率制度：现状、改革方向和近期选择[J].国际金融研究, 2004(10)：12-17
[231]张萌,钟晓兵.人民币现行汇率制度的成本效应分析[J].哈尔滨工业大学学报(社会科学版),2004(4)：52-56
[232]张曙光,张斌.外汇储备持续积累的经济后果[J].经济研究,2007(4)：45-51
[233]张曙光.人民币汇率问题：升值及其成本-收益分析[J].经济研究,2005(5)：17-30
[234]张维迎,博弈论与信息经济学[M].上海：上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1996：273-275
[235]张晓朴.均衡与失调：1978-1999人民币汇率合理性评估[J].金融研究,2000(8)： 16-27
[236]张宇燕.经济发展与制度选择：对制度的经济分析[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1992：120
[237]赵蓓文.丛“蒙代尔三角”看人民币汇率制度的选择[J].世界经济研究,2004(7)：31-35
[238]赵大平.汇率传递及其对贸易平衡的影响[J].世界经济研究,2005(9)：37-40,47
[239]赵进文,高辉和褚云皓.人民币篮子货币的测定与实证分析[J].财经研究,2006(1)：20-35
[240]郑杭生.社会学概论新论[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,1987：253
[241]周继忠,金洪飞.发展中国家汇率制度安排的名与实[J].财经研究,2008(1)：39-50
[242]周茂荣,郭建泉.放弃成本、政府偏好与资本控制：一个审慎的机会主义汇制选择模型[J].经济研究,2004(5)：67-76
[243]周铁军,刘传哲.中国国际收支与货币供给关联性的实证分析：1996-2007[J].国际金融研究,2009(3)：82-87
[244]朱孟楠,陈晞.人民币汇率制度变迁的路径依赖分析——基于新制度经济学的视角[J].金融理论与实践,2008(11)：3-6
[245]邹宏元,李晓斌.人民币汇率偏离均衡程度的估计：在宏观经济平衡框架下的分析[J].国际金融研究,2008(10)：68-74