中央银行外汇干预策略及有效性研究
|
摘要
自从1973年布雷度森林体系解体以来,伴随着汇率的频繁波动,中央银行外汇干预成为众多国家的一项重要经济政策。无论选择何种汇率制度,单独浮动、钉住浮动抑或是其他制度,各国都会运用外汇干预政策,以期能够稳定汇率或使汇率走向符合政府意图。因此,作为一项重要的经济政策,对这一问题的研究已成为一个具有重大实践意义和丰富理论内涵的课题。
中央银行在进行外汇市场干预时,必须明确其操作行为在不同经济环境和市场条件下的干预目标、干预方式、传导机制及其有效性,从而提高对外汇市场干预的效率。伴随外国中央银行外汇干预的操作实践,西方学者在这一领域进行了广泛而深入的研究,形成了一些较为成熟并且具有借鉴意义的方法和理论。但是对于金融市场化程度较低、外汇管理比较严格、金融体制不够健全的发展中国家而言,这些西方国家的外汇干预有一些不适用性。本文在分析国际上外汇干预方式、传导机制及有效性的基础上,对我国外汇干预的有效性及干预的策略选择进行了研究。
本文共分六章,从内容的逻辑关系看,可将其分为三大部分,各部分主要内容如下：第一部分包含第一、二章,是本文的基础理论部分。第一章导论介绍研究背景,提出研究问题,探讨研究的实践意义、逻辑路线和总体框架。第二章的主要内容是介绍外汇干预研究的一般理论框架,系统梳理了外汇干预的含义及相关基本概念、货币当局进行外汇干预的决策基础以及实施条件、外汇干预的理论及外汇干预发挥作用的渠道。
第二部分包括第三、四章,对西方国家外汇干预的策略及有效性进行了分析。第三章首先介绍了外汇市场的结构特征,包括市场结构、交易机制以及电子交易方式,继而回顾并分析了新兴市场国家和西方工业国几次典型的外汇市场干预活动,其目的在于感性认识典型有效外汇干预的行为方式及特点,归纳总结有效干预的经验。最后具体分析了西方工业国进行外汇干预的干预时机选择和干预方式选择策略。第四章对美、日、欧洲等国汇率分别就外汇干预的有效性、外汇干预的信号效应、规模效应以及干预效果的持久性等问题进行了检验。
最后一部分包括第五、六章,对中国外汇市场以及外汇干预现状进行探讨,对我国外汇干预的有效性进行了检验,并在对我国外汇干预进行成本和收益分析的基础上,提出了改进我国外汇干预市场条件及我国外汇干预策略选择的政策建议。第五章首先介绍了我国外汇市场的发展历程与特点,继而分析了在当前中国外汇市场的大环境下,我国中央银行外汇干预活动的方式、特点及其有效性。最后在以上定性分析的基础上,进一步对我国目前外汇干预的目标以及外汇干预发挥效力的作用机制进行了实证检验,得出的结论是,中国人民银行外汇干预的目标是逆风向的,即以熨平汇率波动为目标,并且是不对称的,中央银行更倾向于对人民币升值的干预,并且中国的外汇干预可以通过资产组合渠道影响发挥效力。第六章首先借鉴Ito(2002)的方法,对我国中央银行外汇干预的成本收益进行了微观分析,发现我国外汇干预从损益角度分析是亏损的。然后从宏观层面分析了外汇干预的收益与成本,虽然总体来看,从宏观层面我国外汇干预的收益大于成本,但无论从宏观上还是微观上看外汇干预的成本都很高,因此,当前这种单边频繁的外汇干预模式难以长期维持。最后在上述分析的基础上提出了完善我国外汇干预市场条件的对策建议及我国外汇干预的策略选择。
本文的研究具有以下几个创新点：首先,目前国内对外汇干预问题的现有研究大多从宏观的角度对外汇干预的目的、效果等进行研究。而本文对外汇干预的策略及有效性研究的视角是微观层面的,即关注外汇干预方式、干预时间的选择以及干预规模等微观变量对干预效力的影响,这是一个新的研究角度,即在理论上探讨了外汇干预这一宏观经济问题的微观基础,同时研究所得出的结论对完善我国外汇干预操作、提高干预效果也具有现实意义。
其次,本文在学习借鉴国内外研究者研究方法和数据选取的基础上,运用事件研究法对美、日、欧外汇干预的有效性进行了检验,得出不同干预方式、干预策略的选择将极大影响外汇干预有效性的结论,以及即使是有效的外汇干预,其有效性的持久力也较为有限的结论。此外采用2005年7月汇率制度改革以来的数据,对我国外汇干预发挥效力的作用机制进行了协整分析,得出我国外汇干预可以通过资产组合渠道发挥效力的结论。根据上述结果,就可以解释我国目前的外汇干预虽然有效,但需要频繁直接进行干预以稳定人民币汇率,同时也提出我国这种单边频繁的干预难以保持持久性的观点。
最后,对2007年美国金融危机爆发以来,国际外汇干预实践的过程、干预手段、干预效果及其原因进行了系统地梳理和分析。如2009年瑞士中央银行对瑞士法郎的干预,这是近年来第一家直接公开干预外汇市场的西方发达国家中央银行。此外,特别对新兴市场国家,如巴西、俄罗斯2009年以来的外汇干预进行了总结和分析,探讨了在金融危机背景下,新兴市场国家外汇干预的目标转换、干预手段及成败原因。
Since the Bretton Wood System collapsed in 1973, foreign exchange rate fluctuated frequently, and the foreign exchange intervention became an important economic policy tool in most countries to maintain the stabilization or influence the trend of the exchange rate. The study of this issue is of significance in both theory and practice.
The central bank should make clear the intervention goals, intervention operations, transmission mechanism and the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in different economic conditions, so that it will increase the efficiency of intervention. The international researches about the foreign exchange intervention have evolved greatly and some mature economics theories in the western countries have formed. But in developing countries, the financial market is imperfect and monetary authorities manage foreign exchange market strictly, the experiences in developed countries are not suitable for developing countries. With the comparisons and analysis of foreign exchange intervention in developed countries, we will get a path for China. The foreign exchange intervention of the central bank in China, especially the effectiveness of intervention and the intervention strategies, would be the subject of this thesis.
This thesis includes six chapters, and according to the logic relation, they can be classified into three parts. The first part includes two chapters. Chapter one is introduction, which gives the theme, significance, logic chain and framework of this research. Chapter two introduces the theoretical framework, including the definition of the foreign exchange intervention and related concepts, the basis of decision, the precondition and the effect channel of the monetary authority intervention.
The second part, including chapter three and four, identifies the strategies and effectiveness of the foreign exchange intervention in western countries. Firstly, chapter three describes the structure characteristics of the foreign exchange market, including the market structure, trading mechanism and ETP. Then, it reviews the typical operations of foreign exchange intervention in both the emerging market countries and the western industrialized countries, and further analyzes the common characteristics of the succeeded interventions. Lastly, discusses the time and methods strategies of the interventions in the western countries. Chapter four tests the effectiveness, signal channel, size effect and persistent effect of interventions in the U.S., Japan and European countries.
The last part includes Chapter five and six. This part describes the developing status of foreign exchange market and intervention in China, and tests the effectiveness of intervention in China. At last, based on the cost and benefit analysis, it formulates recommendations on the foreign exchange market and interventions of China. In Chapter five, after introducing the development history and characteristics of the foreign exchange market in China, it points out the present problems and analyzes the methods, features and effectiveness of interventions in the current market conditions. After the qualitative analysis, it tests the goals, the effectiveness and the effect channels of interventions in China by empirical analysis, and draws the conclusions:The interventions in China are leaning against the wind and are effective through the portfolio channel. In Chapter six, learning from the methods of Ito(2002), calculates the costs and benefits of intervention in China from the microscopic view. We will find it is a loss of intervention. From the macroscopic view, the benefit is more than the cost, but the cost is high. So we should not maintain the against wind intervention over long term. At last, gives the suggestions on the strategies of intervention in China.
The conclusions and innovations of this thesis are as follows:Firstly, this thesis pays close attention to the effects of the micro variables, such as the methods, time, and size of intervention. Secondly, according to the empirical tests, we can draw a conclusion:different intervention strategies and methods will influence the effectiveness of intervention greatly. The effect will be not persistent, even if an effective intervention. Then gives the policy recommendations on the strategies of foreign exchange intervention in light of the conclusion of empirical research mentioned above, referring to foreign experience and actual condition in China. Lastly, this thesis discusses the goal conversion, methods and the reasons for failure or success of the emerging market countries intervention, such as Brazil and Russia, in the context of the financial crisis.
中央银行在进行外汇市场干预时,必须明确其操作行为在不同经济环境和市场条件下的干预目标、干预方式、传导机制及其有效性,从而提高对外汇市场干预的效率。伴随外国中央银行外汇干预的操作实践,西方学者在这一领域进行了广泛而深入的研究,形成了一些较为成熟并且具有借鉴意义的方法和理论。但是对于金融市场化程度较低、外汇管理比较严格、金融体制不够健全的发展中国家而言,这些西方国家的外汇干预有一些不适用性。本文在分析国际上外汇干预方式、传导机制及有效性的基础上,对我国外汇干预的有效性及干预的策略选择进行了研究。
本文共分六章,从内容的逻辑关系看,可将其分为三大部分,各部分主要内容如下：第一部分包含第一、二章,是本文的基础理论部分。第一章导论介绍研究背景,提出研究问题,探讨研究的实践意义、逻辑路线和总体框架。第二章的主要内容是介绍外汇干预研究的一般理论框架,系统梳理了外汇干预的含义及相关基本概念、货币当局进行外汇干预的决策基础以及实施条件、外汇干预的理论及外汇干预发挥作用的渠道。
第二部分包括第三、四章,对西方国家外汇干预的策略及有效性进行了分析。第三章首先介绍了外汇市场的结构特征,包括市场结构、交易机制以及电子交易方式,继而回顾并分析了新兴市场国家和西方工业国几次典型的外汇市场干预活动,其目的在于感性认识典型有效外汇干预的行为方式及特点,归纳总结有效干预的经验。最后具体分析了西方工业国进行外汇干预的干预时机选择和干预方式选择策略。第四章对美、日、欧洲等国汇率分别就外汇干预的有效性、外汇干预的信号效应、规模效应以及干预效果的持久性等问题进行了检验。
最后一部分包括第五、六章,对中国外汇市场以及外汇干预现状进行探讨,对我国外汇干预的有效性进行了检验,并在对我国外汇干预进行成本和收益分析的基础上,提出了改进我国外汇干预市场条件及我国外汇干预策略选择的政策建议。第五章首先介绍了我国外汇市场的发展历程与特点,继而分析了在当前中国外汇市场的大环境下,我国中央银行外汇干预活动的方式、特点及其有效性。最后在以上定性分析的基础上,进一步对我国目前外汇干预的目标以及外汇干预发挥效力的作用机制进行了实证检验,得出的结论是,中国人民银行外汇干预的目标是逆风向的,即以熨平汇率波动为目标,并且是不对称的,中央银行更倾向于对人民币升值的干预,并且中国的外汇干预可以通过资产组合渠道影响发挥效力。第六章首先借鉴Ito(2002)的方法,对我国中央银行外汇干预的成本收益进行了微观分析,发现我国外汇干预从损益角度分析是亏损的。然后从宏观层面分析了外汇干预的收益与成本,虽然总体来看,从宏观层面我国外汇干预的收益大于成本,但无论从宏观上还是微观上看外汇干预的成本都很高,因此,当前这种单边频繁的外汇干预模式难以长期维持。最后在上述分析的基础上提出了完善我国外汇干预市场条件的对策建议及我国外汇干预的策略选择。
本文的研究具有以下几个创新点：首先,目前国内对外汇干预问题的现有研究大多从宏观的角度对外汇干预的目的、效果等进行研究。而本文对外汇干预的策略及有效性研究的视角是微观层面的,即关注外汇干预方式、干预时间的选择以及干预规模等微观变量对干预效力的影响,这是一个新的研究角度,即在理论上探讨了外汇干预这一宏观经济问题的微观基础,同时研究所得出的结论对完善我国外汇干预操作、提高干预效果也具有现实意义。
其次,本文在学习借鉴国内外研究者研究方法和数据选取的基础上,运用事件研究法对美、日、欧外汇干预的有效性进行了检验,得出不同干预方式、干预策略的选择将极大影响外汇干预有效性的结论,以及即使是有效的外汇干预,其有效性的持久力也较为有限的结论。此外采用2005年7月汇率制度改革以来的数据,对我国外汇干预发挥效力的作用机制进行了协整分析,得出我国外汇干预可以通过资产组合渠道发挥效力的结论。根据上述结果,就可以解释我国目前的外汇干预虽然有效,但需要频繁直接进行干预以稳定人民币汇率,同时也提出我国这种单边频繁的干预难以保持持久性的观点。
最后,对2007年美国金融危机爆发以来,国际外汇干预实践的过程、干预手段、干预效果及其原因进行了系统地梳理和分析。如2009年瑞士中央银行对瑞士法郎的干预,这是近年来第一家直接公开干预外汇市场的西方发达国家中央银行。此外,特别对新兴市场国家,如巴西、俄罗斯2009年以来的外汇干预进行了总结和分析,探讨了在金融危机背景下,新兴市场国家外汇干预的目标转换、干预手段及成败原因。
Since the Bretton Wood System collapsed in 1973, foreign exchange rate fluctuated frequently, and the foreign exchange intervention became an important economic policy tool in most countries to maintain the stabilization or influence the trend of the exchange rate. The study of this issue is of significance in both theory and practice.
The central bank should make clear the intervention goals, intervention operations, transmission mechanism and the effectiveness of foreign exchange intervention in different economic conditions, so that it will increase the efficiency of intervention. The international researches about the foreign exchange intervention have evolved greatly and some mature economics theories in the western countries have formed. But in developing countries, the financial market is imperfect and monetary authorities manage foreign exchange market strictly, the experiences in developed countries are not suitable for developing countries. With the comparisons and analysis of foreign exchange intervention in developed countries, we will get a path for China. The foreign exchange intervention of the central bank in China, especially the effectiveness of intervention and the intervention strategies, would be the subject of this thesis.
This thesis includes six chapters, and according to the logic relation, they can be classified into three parts. The first part includes two chapters. Chapter one is introduction, which gives the theme, significance, logic chain and framework of this research. Chapter two introduces the theoretical framework, including the definition of the foreign exchange intervention and related concepts, the basis of decision, the precondition and the effect channel of the monetary authority intervention.
The second part, including chapter three and four, identifies the strategies and effectiveness of the foreign exchange intervention in western countries. Firstly, chapter three describes the structure characteristics of the foreign exchange market, including the market structure, trading mechanism and ETP. Then, it reviews the typical operations of foreign exchange intervention in both the emerging market countries and the western industrialized countries, and further analyzes the common characteristics of the succeeded interventions. Lastly, discusses the time and methods strategies of the interventions in the western countries. Chapter four tests the effectiveness, signal channel, size effect and persistent effect of interventions in the U.S., Japan and European countries.
The last part includes Chapter five and six. This part describes the developing status of foreign exchange market and intervention in China, and tests the effectiveness of intervention in China. At last, based on the cost and benefit analysis, it formulates recommendations on the foreign exchange market and interventions of China. In Chapter five, after introducing the development history and characteristics of the foreign exchange market in China, it points out the present problems and analyzes the methods, features and effectiveness of interventions in the current market conditions. After the qualitative analysis, it tests the goals, the effectiveness and the effect channels of interventions in China by empirical analysis, and draws the conclusions:The interventions in China are leaning against the wind and are effective through the portfolio channel. In Chapter six, learning from the methods of Ito(2002), calculates the costs and benefits of intervention in China from the microscopic view. We will find it is a loss of intervention. From the macroscopic view, the benefit is more than the cost, but the cost is high. So we should not maintain the against wind intervention over long term. At last, gives the suggestions on the strategies of intervention in China.
The conclusions and innovations of this thesis are as follows:Firstly, this thesis pays close attention to the effects of the micro variables, such as the methods, time, and size of intervention. Secondly, according to the empirical tests, we can draw a conclusion:different intervention strategies and methods will influence the effectiveness of intervention greatly. The effect will be not persistent, even if an effective intervention. Then gives the policy recommendations on the strategies of foreign exchange intervention in light of the conclusion of empirical research mentioned above, referring to foreign experience and actual condition in China. Lastly, this thesis discusses the goal conversion, methods and the reasons for failure or success of the emerging market countries intervention, such as Brazil and Russia, in the context of the financial crisis.
引文
[1]巴曙松,1998：中央银行的市场干预行为与我国外汇市场的运行的综述与比较,[J],外国经济与管理,1998年第11期
[2]巴曙松,袁彩虹,2005：新兴市场国家外汇干预的综述与比较,[J],中国货币市场,2005年第11期
[3]包柳,2006：全球外汇市场与央行外汇干预新趋势,[J],南方金融,2006年第9期
[4]曹凤岐,2005：人民币汇率形成机制研究,[J],金融研究,2005年第2期
[5]曹勇,2006：做市商制度、人民币汇率形成机制与中国外汇市场的发展,[J],国际金融研究,2006年第4期
[6]陈彪如,国际金融概论,[M],华东师范大学出版社,1996年2月第二版
[7]陈浪南、黄询,2004：联合干预实证研究,[J],经济研究,2004年第5期
[8]陈平、王曦,2002：人民币汇率的非均衡分析与汇率制度的宏观效率,[J],经济研究,2002年第6期
[9]崔孟修,现代西方汇率决定理论研究,[M],中国金融出版社,2002年
[10]戴根有,2003：中国中央银行公开市场业务操作实践和经验,[J],金融研究,2003年第1期
[11]戴根有,2004：人民币汇率基本稳定条件下的货币政策操作,[J],新金融,2004年第1期
[12]刁锋,2001：中国外汇市场干预资产组合渠道有效性实证检验,[J],南 开经济研究,2001年第3期
[13]刁峰,2001：中国央行外汇市场干预目标的实证分析,[J],南开经济研究,2001年第6期
[14]丁剑平,2004：.单方干预与联合干预效应对中国的启示,[J],复旦学报社会科学版,2004年第6期
[15]丁剑平、俞君钛、张景煜,2006：从外汇市场微观结构视角看中央银行入市交易效果,[J],管理世界,2006年第7期
[16]董云巍,2001：西方冲销干预理论及其对我国的实用性分析,[J],上海金融,2001年第1期
[17]方先明、裴平、张谊浩,2006：外汇储备增加的通货膨胀效应和货币冲销政策的有效性——基于中国统计数据的实证检验,[J],金融研究,2006年第7期
[18]冯用富,汇率制度理论架构与中国金融进一步开放中的选择,[M],西南财经大学出版社,2001年
[19]干杏娣、杨金梅、张军,2007：我国央行外汇干预有效性的事件分析研究,[J],金融研究,2007年第9期
[20]管华雨、张晓田,2000：论发展中国家的货币冲销政策,[J],金融研究,2000年第7期
[21]桂泳评,2009：论信号渠道的外汇干预有效性,[J],金融与经济,2009年第1期
[22]桂泳评,2008：中国外汇干预有效性的协整分析：资产组合平衡渠道,[J],世界经济,2008年第1期
[23]郭田勇、陈佳,2006：我国中央银行对外汇市场干预效力分析,[J],国际金融研究,2006年第7期
[24]韩继云,2002：中国外汇管理体制改革研究,[J],财经研究,2002年第4期
[25]贺力平,2000：中国外汇管理体制改革与发展目标、问题和前景,[J],南方金融,2000年第1期
[26]何彦,2000：我国外汇冲销干预中存在的问题及改革思路,[J],财经研究,2000年第4期
[27]何尤华,2003：外汇干预的市场选择,[J],中国外汇管理,2003年第7期
[28]胡坚、董曦明,2006：汇率目标区在外汇干预中的作用分析,[J],山西财经大学学报,2006年第3期
[29]胡坚、董曦明,2005：西方干预理论述评,[J],广东金融学院学报,2005年第5期
[30]黄泽民,1997：论中央银行干预外汇市场的政策,[J],华东师范大学学报哲学社会科学,1997年第4期
[31]纪承烽,1997：外汇市场干预的效力：成本与收益分析,[J],国际金融研究,1997年第3期
[32]姜波克,国际金融学,[M],高等教育出版社,1999年
[33]姜波克,1999：论开放经济下中央银行冲销手段,[J],金融研究,1999年第5期
[34]李家美,1998：金融危机与央行的汇率干预,[J],世界经济,1998年第5期
[35]李杰,2008：外汇市场的新发展,[J],经济论坛,2008年第8期
[36]李晓峰、魏英辉,2009：基于行为金融理论的中央银行外汇干预策略研究,[J],南开经济研究,2009年第1期
[37]李晓鹏,2005：人民币汇率制度改革的背景及展望,[J],金融论坛,2005年第8期
[38]李晓西、余明,2000：货币政策传导机制与国民经济活力,[J],金融研究,2000年第7期
[39]林孝成,2006：外汇做市商制度及其对人民币汇率形成机制的影响,[J],重庆大学学报社会科学版,2006年第6期
[40]陆前进,1999：中央银行非冲销干预和冲销干预的有效性,[J],南开经济研究,1999年第4期
[41]陆志明,2009：外汇干预与就业、宏观经济增长研究——以1994-2007中国外汇干预实证研究为证,[J],财经研究,2009年第4期
[42]刘燕、庄起善,2001：中央银行直接干预外汇市场效果的比较研究,[J],上海金融,2001年第10期
[43]柳鸿生、惠晓峰、胡运权,2003：增强人民币汇率弹性的思考——尝试钉住“一篮子”货币,[J],数量经济技术经济研究,2003年第4期
[44]倪克勤、叶菲,2007：外汇市场微观结构研究的最新进展,[J],西南金融,2007年第3期
[45]农淑贞、李永梅,1998：有冲销的汇率干预作用渠道分析,[J],国际金融研究,1998年第8期
[46]裴红英,1995：西方银行间外汇市场的结构,[J],浙江金融,1995年第9期
[47]裴平,熊鹏,2003：我国货币政策传导过程中的“渗漏”效应,[J],经济研究,2003年第8期
[48]彭长鸿,2003：开放经济条件下的外汇干预政策选择,[J],中国外汇管理,2003年第7期
[49]彭长鸿,2003：开放经济条件下的外汇干预的必要性、可行性和有效性分析,[J],经济研究参考,2003年第7期
[50]潘国陵,国际金融理论与数量分析方法,[M],上海人民出版社,2000年
[51]宋文兵,1998：外汇市场干预的理论分析与国际比较,[J],世界经济,1998年第6期
[52]苏桂富、赵永亮、姚又文,2008：央行干预效应之日本证据：1991-2004,[J],上海金融,2008年第2期
[53]孙伯银,2004：汇率波动与外汇干预,[J],中国货币市场,2004年第12期
[54]孙明春,1998：外汇市场干预的理论分析,[J],世界经济,1998年第5期
[55]唐国兴、徐剑刚,[M],现代汇率理论及模型研究,中国金融出版社,2003年
[56]王爱俭,2008：基于金融安全的人民币汇率政策调控研究,[J],经济学动态,2008年第9期
[57]王勇,2009：对央行外汇市场干预的新思考,[J],上海金融,2009年第4期
[58]王维安、陶海飞,2005：我国外汇干预机制有效性探讨,[J],浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版),2005第1期
[59]王曦、才国伟,2006：完警人民币汇率形成机制的改革措施机理与次序,国际金融研究,2006年第12期
[60]魏加宁,2006：日本的教训日元升值与泡沫经济,[J],西安金融,2006年第1期
[61]吴晓灵,2007：国际收支双顺差下的中国货币政策,[J],中国金融,2007年第1期
[62]伍戈、姜波克、唐建伟,2002：外汇市场信息与汇率波动性研究,[J],财经研究,2002年第7期
[63]奚君羊,2003：市场预期对外汇干预效果的影响,[J],中国金融,2003年第8期
[64]奚君羊,2008：外汇市场冲击持续性及其对外汇干预效果的影响,[J],世界经济研究,2008年11月
[65]邢毓静,1999：必然的选择—全球化条件下外汇市场干预与货币政策,[J],国际贸易,1999年第7期
[66]谢赤、张媛媛、丁晖,2008：外汇市场干预信号渠道与投机头寸相关性研究,[J],财经研究,2008年第3期
[67]徐永久,2002：外汇储备持有量—适度量模型及其应用分析,[J],财经理论与实践,2002年第12期
[68]许承明、唐国兴,2003：中国外汇储备非均衡对汇率影响的经验分析,[J],世界经济,2003年第4期
[69]许罕多,2006：关于外汇干预理论的几个重要问题,[J],当代经济研究,2006年第5期
[70]杨荣、贺晓波,2005：日本央行干预外汇市场的实证研究,[J],亚太经济,2005年第3期
[71]杨荣,2009：人民币外汇市场的微观结构,[J],上海金融,2009年第3期
[72]姚佳,2005：外汇市场干预的有效性分析,[J],金融与经济,2005年第1期
[73]元惠萍、陈浪南、黄询,2002：外汇干预传导的预期途径分析,[J],预测,2002年第6期
[74]袁小玲、刘建国,2008：我国外汇冲销干预的有效性研究,[J],华东理工大学学报(社会科学版),2008年第2期
[75]曾振宇,2003：非对称管制下的外汇市场干预绩效与缺陷,[J],世界经济与政治论坛,2003年第4期
[76]张纪康,2003：金融市场的电子交易：发展与冲击,[J],中国货币市场,2003年第3期
[77]张亦春、刘猛,2008：开放经济下中央银行外汇市场干预的有效性分析,[J],西部金融,2008年第7期[78]朱德忠,2006：现行人民币汇率制度的问题和改革建议,[J],新金融,2006年第9期
[79]朱杰,2003：中国外汇市场压力和中央银行的干预程度——一个经验分析,[J],世界经济,2003年第6期
[80]朱孟楠,2009：外汇市场压力与货币政策——基于中国数据的实证检验,山西财经大学学报,2009年第4期
[81]祝炳奎,王雪莲,2002：开放经济条件下央行干预外汇市场的效力分析,[J],华南金融研究,2002年第8期
[1]Abel Cadenillas, Fernando Zapatero,1999:Optimal Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market, Journal of Economic Theory,1999(87): 218-242.
[2]Almekinders, G.J., Foreign Exchange Intervention Theory and Evidence, Edward Elgar Publishing Limited,1995.
[3]Argy V.,1983:Bank of England:Intervention, Stabilization, and Profits, Quarterly Bulletin,23,384-391.
[4]Atish R. Ghosh,1992:Is it Signaling? Exchange Intervention and the Dollar-Deutsche Mark Rate, Journal of International Economics,1992 (32), 201-220.
[5]Atish R. Ghosh,2002:Central Bank Secrecy in the Foreign Exchange Market, European Economic Review,2002 (46),253-272.
[6]Artus, J.R., Exchange Rate Stability and Managed Floating:The Experience of Federal Republic of Germany, International Monetary Staff Papers,23, 312-333
[7]Baig, Mirza Allim, Narasimhan, V. and M Ramschandran,2003:Exchange Market Pressure and the Reserve Bank of India's Intervention Activity, Journal of Policy Modeling,2003(25):727-748.
[8]Battacharya, U., Weller, P.,1997:The Advantage to Hiding One's Hand: Speculation and Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market, Journal of Monetary Economics,1997(39):251-277.
[9]Beetsma, R. M. W. J., Van Der Ploeg, F.1998:Macroeconomic Stabilization and Intervention Policy Under and Exchange Rate Band, Journal of Money and Finance,1998(17):339-353.
[10]Beine, M., C. Laurent,2004:Reported and Secret Interventions in the Foreign Exchange Market, Financial Research Letters,2004(1):215-225.
[11]Ben Crig, Owen Humpage,2001:Sterilized Intervention, Nonsterilized Intervention and Monetary, Working Paper of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland,01-10, July 2001.
[12]Bettina Peiers,1997:Informed Traders, Intervention and Price Leadership: A Deeper View of the Microstructure of the Foreign Exchange Market, The Journal of Finance,1997,52(4).
[13]Branson William,1976:Asset markets and relative prices in exchange rate determination, Stockholm, Institute for International Economic Studies, Seminar Paper,1976,66.
[14]Branson William, P. Masson,1977:Exchange Rates in the Short Run—The Dollar-Deutschemark Rate, European Economic Review,1977(10),303-324.
[15]Branson William, P. Masson,1979:Exchange Rates in the Short Run—Some Further Results, European Economic Review,1979(12),395-402.
[16]Brock, W., C. Hommes,1998:Heterogeneous Beliefs and Routes to Chaos in a Simple Asset Pricing Model, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1998(22):1235-1274.
[17]Chaboud, A., LeBaron, B., Foreign Exchange Trading Volume and Federal Reserve Intervention, Journal of Futures Markets,2001(21):851-860.
[18]Chang, Y., Taylor, S.J.,1998:Intraday Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention by the Bank of Japan, Journal of International Money and Finance,1998(17),191-210.
[19]Dominguez, K.,1999:The Market Microstructure of Central Bank Intervention, NBER Working Paper 7737.
[20]Dominguez, K., Frankel,J.,1993:Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect, American Economic Review,1993(83):1356-1369.
[21]Dominguez, K.,1998:Central Bank Intervention and Exchage Rate Volatility, Journal of International Money and Finance,1998(17):161-190.
[22]Dornbusch, R.,1976:Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics, Journal of Political Economy,1976(84):1161-1176.
[23]Dornbusch, R.,1975:A Portfolio Balance Model of the Open Economy, Journal of Monetary Economics,1975(1):3-20.
[24]Dudler, Herrmann, J.,1988:Monetary Policy and Exchange Market Intervention in Germany, In Bank for International Settlements, ed., Exchange Market Intervention and Monetary Policy. Basel, BIS.
[25]Edison, H. T.,1993:The Effectiveness of Central Bank Intervention:A Survey of the Literature after 1982, Princeton University, Special Papers in International Economics, No.18.
[26]Evans, M.D.D., Lyons, R.K.,2002:Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics, Journal of Political Economy,2002(102):53-72.
[27]Fatum, R., Hutchison, M.,1999, Is Intervention a Signal of Future Monetary Policy? Evidence from the Federal Funds Marekt, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,1999,31(1):54-69.
[28]Fatum, R., Hutchison, M.,2006, Effectiveness of Official Daily Foreign Exchange Market Intervention Operations in Japan, Journal of International Money and Finance,2006(25):199-219.
[29]Fischer, A. M., M. Zurlinden,1999:Exchange Rate Effects of Central Bank Interventions:An Analysis of Transaction Prices, Economic Journal, 1999(109),662-676.
[30]Frankel, M.,C. Pieedzionch and G. Stadtmann,2001:The Foreign Exchange Intervention of ECB, Banca Nazionale Del Lavaro Quarterly Review, 2001(54):218,249-287.
[31]Frankel, J., K. Froot, Chartists,1990:Fundamentalists and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market, American Economic Review,1990(80)181-185.
[32]Fratzscher, Marcel,2006:On the Long-term Effectiveness of Exchange Rate Communication and Interventions, Journal of International Money and Finance 2006(25):146-167.
[33]Frenkel, M., Pierdzioch Christian, Stadtmann Georg,2006:The Transparency of the ECB Policy:What Can We Learn from Its Foreign Exchange Market Interventions?, Journal of Policy Modeling,2006(28):141-156.
[34]Galati, G., Melick, W.1999:Central Bank Intervention and Market Expectations:An Empirical Study of the Yen/Dollar,1993 - 1996, BIS Working Paper No.77
[35]Girton, L., Roper, D.,1977:A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience, The American Economic Review,2006(67):537-548.
[36]Glick, Reuven, Hutchison M.,2000, Foreign Reserve and Money Dynamics with Asset Portfolio Adjustment:International Evidence, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money,2000(10):229-247
[37]Glosten, L., Milgrom, P.,1985:Bid, Ask, and Transaction Prices In a Specialist Market with Heterogeneously Informed Traders, Journal of Financial Economics,1985(13):71-100.
[38]Guimaraes, R.,2004:Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy in Japan:Evidence from Identified VARs, IMF Working Paper,315.
[39]Hillebrand, E., Schnabl, G.,2003:The Effects of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention GARCH Estimation and Change Point Detection, Louisiana State University, Working Paper, Aug.29,2003
[40]Hua Mingshu, Gau Yin-Feng,2006:Determinants of Periodic Volatility of Intraday Exchange Rates in the Taipei FX Market, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal,2006(14):193-208.
[41]Hung, J.H.,1997:Intervention Strategies and Exchange Rate Volatility:A Noise Trading Perspective, Journal of International Money and Finance, 1997(16):779-793.
[42]Hutchinson, M.M.,2003:Intervention and Exchange Rate Stabilization Policy in Developing Countries, International Finance,2003(6):109-127.
[43]Ito, T.,2002:Is Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective?, The Japanese Experiences in the 1990s, NBER Working Paper 8914.
[44]Ito, T., Roley, V.V.,1987:News From the U.S. and Japan:Which Moves the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate?, Journal of Monetary Economics 1987(19): 257-277.
[45]Jurgensen, P,1983:Report of the Working Group on Exchange Market Intervention, Washington, Treasury Department.
[46]Kaminsky, G. L., Lewis, K.K.,1996:Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Signal Future Monetary Policy?, Journal of Monetary Economics,1996(37): 285-312.
[47]Kearns, Jonathan, Rigibon, Roberto,2005:Identifying the Efficacy of Central Bank Interventions:Evidence from Australia and Japan, Journal of International Economics,2005(66):31-48.
[48]Kenen, P.B.,1987:Exchange Rate Management:What Role for Intervention?, The American Economic Review,1987,77(2):194-199.
[49]Klein, M.W., Rosengren, E.,1991:Foreign Exchange Intervention As A Signal of Monetary Policy, New England Economic Review,1991:39-50.
[50]Klitgaard, Thomas,Laura Weir,2004:Exchange Rate Changes and Net Positions of Speculators in the Futures Market, Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York,2004,10(1):17-27.
[51]Leahy, M. P,1995:The Profitability of U.S. Intervention in the Foreign Exchange markets, Journal of International Money and Finance,1995(12): 823-44.
[52]LeBaron, B.,1989:Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention. Journal of International Economics,1989(49):125-143
[53]Lee,B.S., M.E. Wohar,1992:An Application of the Gireonroper Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure:the Japan Experience,1959-1991, International Economic Journal,1992:993-1013.
[54]Lewis, K.,1995:Occasional Interventions to Target Rates, American Economic Review Vol.85 No.4
[55]Lyons R.K.,1995:Test of Micro-structural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market, Journal of Financial Economics,1995(39):321-351.
[56]Lyons R.K.,1996:Optimal Transparency in a Dealer Market with an Application to Foreign Exchange, Journal of Financial Intermediation, 1996(4):225-254.
[57]Mussa, M.,1981:The Role of Official Intervention, New York:Group of Thirty,1981.
[58]Nagayasu,2004:The Effectiveness of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention During 1991-2001, Economic Letters,2004(84):377-381
[59]Neely, C.J., Weller, P.,2000:The Practice of Central Bank Intervention: Looking under the Hood, Central Banking, Nov.2000,XI(2):24-37
[60]Neely, C.J., Weller, P.,2000:Technical Analysis and Central Bank Intervention, Journal of International Money and Finance, Nov.2000.
[61]Neely, C.J.,2005:An Analysis of Recent Studies of the Effect of Foreign Exchange Intervention, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper, 2005-030B.
[62]Obstfeld, M.,1982:The Capitalization of Income Streams and the Effects of Open-market Policy Under Fixed Exchange Rates, Journal of Monetary Economics,1982(9):87-89.
[63]Obstfeld, M.,1982:Can We Sterilize? Theory and Evidence, The American Economic Review,1982(72):45-50
[64]Obstfeld, M.,1982:Exchange Rates, Inflation and the Sterilization Problem: Germany 1975-1981,1982, NBER Working Paper 963.
[65]Obstfeld, M., The Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Intervention:Recent Experience,1985-1988, In International Policy Coordination and Exchange Rate Fluctuation, Edited by Branson, W.H. et al. The University of Chicago Press,1990,197-237.
[66]Pilbeam, K.,2001:The Profitability of Central Bank Foreign Exchange Market Intervention, Journal of Policy Modeling,2001(23):523-530.
[67]Piti Disyatat, Gabriele Galati,2005:The Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Market Countries:Evidence from the Czech Koruna, BIS Working Papers, Jan.2005
[68]Popper H., Montgomery, J.,2001:Information Sharing And Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market, Journal of International Economics,2001(55):295-316.
[69]Priscilla Chiu,2003:Transprency versus Constructive Ambiguity in Foreign Exchange Intervention, BIS Working Paper No.144,2003
[70]Reeves, S.F.,1997:Exchange Rate Management When Sterilized Interventions Represent Signals of Monetary Policy, International Review of Economics and Finance,6(4):339-60.
[71]Rogers, J.M., Siklos, P.L.,2003:Foreign Exchange Market Intervention in Two Small Open Economies:the Canadian and Australian Experience, Journal of International Money and Finance,2003(22):393-416.
[72]Rogoff, K.,1984, On the Effects of Sterilized Intervention:An Analysis of Weekly Data, Journal of Monetary Economics,1984(14).
[73]Roper, D., Turnovsky, J.,1980:Optimal Exchange Market Intervention in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model, Canadian Journal of Economics, May.1980: 296-309
[74]Sarno, L., M.Taylor,2001:Official Interventions in the Foreign Exchange Markets:Is It Effective, and If So, How Does It Work?, Journal of Economic Literature,2001(39):839-869.
[75]Sj, B., Sweeney, R.J.,2001:The Foreign-exchange Costs of Central Bank Intervention:Evidence From Sweden, Journal of International Money and Finance 2001(20):219-247.
[76]Soyoung Kim,2003:Monetary Policy, Foreign Exchange Intervention, and the Exchange Rate in a Unifying Framework, Journal of International Economics,2003(60):355-386.
[77]Sweeney J. Richard,1999:Do Central Banks Lose on Foreign-exchange Intervention? A Review Article, Journal of International Economics,1999(49): 245-267.
[78]Takagi, S., Esaka, T.,1999, Sterilization and the Capital Inflow Problem in East Asia,1987-1997, Economic Research Institute Economic Planning Agency, Discussion Paper, No.86.
[79]Tversky, A., D. Kahneman,1981:The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice, Science,1981(211):453-458.
[80]Vitale, P.,1999, Sterilized Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market, Journal of International Economics,1999(49):245-267.
[81]Weymark, Diana N.,1995:Estimating Exchange Market Pressure and the Degree of Exchange Market Intervention for Canada, Journal of International Economics,1995 (39),273-295.
[82]Weymark, Diana N.,1997:Measuring the Degree of Exchange Market Intervention in a small Open Economy, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol.16, No.1.55-79.
[83]Williamson, J., The Exchange Rate System, Washington, D.C., Institute of International Economics,1983.
[84]Younus,1998:Estimating Exchange Market Pressure and the Degree of Exchange Market Intervention for Canada, Journal of International Economics,1995 (39),273-295.
5 Lyons, R.K., "Tests of Micro structural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Financial Economics,1995
6 Johansen, S., "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Co integration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoreg Tessive Models", Econometric,59, pp.1551-1580,1991
7 Report of the Working Group on Exchange Market Intervention (March 1983), produced under the Chairmanship of M. Philippe Jorgensen by Working Group on Exchange Market Intervention
8姜波克主编,《国际金融学》,高等教育出版社,2001.5,pp240
[2]巴曙松,袁彩虹,2005：新兴市场国家外汇干预的综述与比较,[J],中国货币市场,2005年第11期
[3]包柳,2006：全球外汇市场与央行外汇干预新趋势,[J],南方金融,2006年第9期
[4]曹凤岐,2005：人民币汇率形成机制研究,[J],金融研究,2005年第2期
[5]曹勇,2006：做市商制度、人民币汇率形成机制与中国外汇市场的发展,[J],国际金融研究,2006年第4期
[6]陈彪如,国际金融概论,[M],华东师范大学出版社,1996年2月第二版
[7]陈浪南、黄询,2004：联合干预实证研究,[J],经济研究,2004年第5期
[8]陈平、王曦,2002：人民币汇率的非均衡分析与汇率制度的宏观效率,[J],经济研究,2002年第6期
[9]崔孟修,现代西方汇率决定理论研究,[M],中国金融出版社,2002年
[10]戴根有,2003：中国中央银行公开市场业务操作实践和经验,[J],金融研究,2003年第1期
[11]戴根有,2004：人民币汇率基本稳定条件下的货币政策操作,[J],新金融,2004年第1期
[12]刁锋,2001：中国外汇市场干预资产组合渠道有效性实证检验,[J],南 开经济研究,2001年第3期
[13]刁峰,2001：中国央行外汇市场干预目标的实证分析,[J],南开经济研究,2001年第6期
[14]丁剑平,2004：.单方干预与联合干预效应对中国的启示,[J],复旦学报社会科学版,2004年第6期
[15]丁剑平、俞君钛、张景煜,2006：从外汇市场微观结构视角看中央银行入市交易效果,[J],管理世界,2006年第7期
[16]董云巍,2001：西方冲销干预理论及其对我国的实用性分析,[J],上海金融,2001年第1期
[17]方先明、裴平、张谊浩,2006：外汇储备增加的通货膨胀效应和货币冲销政策的有效性——基于中国统计数据的实证检验,[J],金融研究,2006年第7期
[18]冯用富,汇率制度理论架构与中国金融进一步开放中的选择,[M],西南财经大学出版社,2001年
[19]干杏娣、杨金梅、张军,2007：我国央行外汇干预有效性的事件分析研究,[J],金融研究,2007年第9期
[20]管华雨、张晓田,2000：论发展中国家的货币冲销政策,[J],金融研究,2000年第7期
[21]桂泳评,2009：论信号渠道的外汇干预有效性,[J],金融与经济,2009年第1期
[22]桂泳评,2008：中国外汇干预有效性的协整分析：资产组合平衡渠道,[J],世界经济,2008年第1期
[23]郭田勇、陈佳,2006：我国中央银行对外汇市场干预效力分析,[J],国际金融研究,2006年第7期
[24]韩继云,2002：中国外汇管理体制改革研究,[J],财经研究,2002年第4期
[25]贺力平,2000：中国外汇管理体制改革与发展目标、问题和前景,[J],南方金融,2000年第1期
[26]何彦,2000：我国外汇冲销干预中存在的问题及改革思路,[J],财经研究,2000年第4期
[27]何尤华,2003：外汇干预的市场选择,[J],中国外汇管理,2003年第7期
[28]胡坚、董曦明,2006：汇率目标区在外汇干预中的作用分析,[J],山西财经大学学报,2006年第3期
[29]胡坚、董曦明,2005：西方干预理论述评,[J],广东金融学院学报,2005年第5期
[30]黄泽民,1997：论中央银行干预外汇市场的政策,[J],华东师范大学学报哲学社会科学,1997年第4期
[31]纪承烽,1997：外汇市场干预的效力：成本与收益分析,[J],国际金融研究,1997年第3期
[32]姜波克,国际金融学,[M],高等教育出版社,1999年
[33]姜波克,1999：论开放经济下中央银行冲销手段,[J],金融研究,1999年第5期
[34]李家美,1998：金融危机与央行的汇率干预,[J],世界经济,1998年第5期
[35]李杰,2008：外汇市场的新发展,[J],经济论坛,2008年第8期
[36]李晓峰、魏英辉,2009：基于行为金融理论的中央银行外汇干预策略研究,[J],南开经济研究,2009年第1期
[37]李晓鹏,2005：人民币汇率制度改革的背景及展望,[J],金融论坛,2005年第8期
[38]李晓西、余明,2000：货币政策传导机制与国民经济活力,[J],金融研究,2000年第7期
[39]林孝成,2006：外汇做市商制度及其对人民币汇率形成机制的影响,[J],重庆大学学报社会科学版,2006年第6期
[40]陆前进,1999：中央银行非冲销干预和冲销干预的有效性,[J],南开经济研究,1999年第4期
[41]陆志明,2009：外汇干预与就业、宏观经济增长研究——以1994-2007中国外汇干预实证研究为证,[J],财经研究,2009年第4期
[42]刘燕、庄起善,2001：中央银行直接干预外汇市场效果的比较研究,[J],上海金融,2001年第10期
[43]柳鸿生、惠晓峰、胡运权,2003：增强人民币汇率弹性的思考——尝试钉住“一篮子”货币,[J],数量经济技术经济研究,2003年第4期
[44]倪克勤、叶菲,2007：外汇市场微观结构研究的最新进展,[J],西南金融,2007年第3期
[45]农淑贞、李永梅,1998：有冲销的汇率干预作用渠道分析,[J],国际金融研究,1998年第8期
[46]裴红英,1995：西方银行间外汇市场的结构,[J],浙江金融,1995年第9期
[47]裴平,熊鹏,2003：我国货币政策传导过程中的“渗漏”效应,[J],经济研究,2003年第8期
[48]彭长鸿,2003：开放经济条件下的外汇干预政策选择,[J],中国外汇管理,2003年第7期
[49]彭长鸿,2003：开放经济条件下的外汇干预的必要性、可行性和有效性分析,[J],经济研究参考,2003年第7期
[50]潘国陵,国际金融理论与数量分析方法,[M],上海人民出版社,2000年
[51]宋文兵,1998：外汇市场干预的理论分析与国际比较,[J],世界经济,1998年第6期
[52]苏桂富、赵永亮、姚又文,2008：央行干预效应之日本证据：1991-2004,[J],上海金融,2008年第2期
[53]孙伯银,2004：汇率波动与外汇干预,[J],中国货币市场,2004年第12期
[54]孙明春,1998：外汇市场干预的理论分析,[J],世界经济,1998年第5期
[55]唐国兴、徐剑刚,[M],现代汇率理论及模型研究,中国金融出版社,2003年
[56]王爱俭,2008：基于金融安全的人民币汇率政策调控研究,[J],经济学动态,2008年第9期
[57]王勇,2009：对央行外汇市场干预的新思考,[J],上海金融,2009年第4期
[58]王维安、陶海飞,2005：我国外汇干预机制有效性探讨,[J],浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版),2005第1期
[59]王曦、才国伟,2006：完警人民币汇率形成机制的改革措施机理与次序,国际金融研究,2006年第12期
[60]魏加宁,2006：日本的教训日元升值与泡沫经济,[J],西安金融,2006年第1期
[61]吴晓灵,2007：国际收支双顺差下的中国货币政策,[J],中国金融,2007年第1期
[62]伍戈、姜波克、唐建伟,2002：外汇市场信息与汇率波动性研究,[J],财经研究,2002年第7期
[63]奚君羊,2003：市场预期对外汇干预效果的影响,[J],中国金融,2003年第8期
[64]奚君羊,2008：外汇市场冲击持续性及其对外汇干预效果的影响,[J],世界经济研究,2008年11月
[65]邢毓静,1999：必然的选择—全球化条件下外汇市场干预与货币政策,[J],国际贸易,1999年第7期
[66]谢赤、张媛媛、丁晖,2008：外汇市场干预信号渠道与投机头寸相关性研究,[J],财经研究,2008年第3期
[67]徐永久,2002：外汇储备持有量—适度量模型及其应用分析,[J],财经理论与实践,2002年第12期
[68]许承明、唐国兴,2003：中国外汇储备非均衡对汇率影响的经验分析,[J],世界经济,2003年第4期
[69]许罕多,2006：关于外汇干预理论的几个重要问题,[J],当代经济研究,2006年第5期
[70]杨荣、贺晓波,2005：日本央行干预外汇市场的实证研究,[J],亚太经济,2005年第3期
[71]杨荣,2009：人民币外汇市场的微观结构,[J],上海金融,2009年第3期
[72]姚佳,2005：外汇市场干预的有效性分析,[J],金融与经济,2005年第1期
[73]元惠萍、陈浪南、黄询,2002：外汇干预传导的预期途径分析,[J],预测,2002年第6期
[74]袁小玲、刘建国,2008：我国外汇冲销干预的有效性研究,[J],华东理工大学学报(社会科学版),2008年第2期
[75]曾振宇,2003：非对称管制下的外汇市场干预绩效与缺陷,[J],世界经济与政治论坛,2003年第4期
[76]张纪康,2003：金融市场的电子交易：发展与冲击,[J],中国货币市场,2003年第3期
[77]张亦春、刘猛,2008：开放经济下中央银行外汇市场干预的有效性分析,[J],西部金融,2008年第7期[78]朱德忠,2006：现行人民币汇率制度的问题和改革建议,[J],新金融,2006年第9期
[79]朱杰,2003：中国外汇市场压力和中央银行的干预程度——一个经验分析,[J],世界经济,2003年第6期
[80]朱孟楠,2009：外汇市场压力与货币政策——基于中国数据的实证检验,山西财经大学学报,2009年第4期
[81]祝炳奎,王雪莲,2002：开放经济条件下央行干预外汇市场的效力分析,[J],华南金融研究,2002年第8期
[1]Abel Cadenillas, Fernando Zapatero,1999:Optimal Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market, Journal of Economic Theory,1999(87): 218-242.
[2]Almekinders, G.J., Foreign Exchange Intervention Theory and Evidence, Edward Elgar Publishing Limited,1995.
[3]Argy V.,1983:Bank of England:Intervention, Stabilization, and Profits, Quarterly Bulletin,23,384-391.
[4]Atish R. Ghosh,1992:Is it Signaling? Exchange Intervention and the Dollar-Deutsche Mark Rate, Journal of International Economics,1992 (32), 201-220.
[5]Atish R. Ghosh,2002:Central Bank Secrecy in the Foreign Exchange Market, European Economic Review,2002 (46),253-272.
[6]Artus, J.R., Exchange Rate Stability and Managed Floating:The Experience of Federal Republic of Germany, International Monetary Staff Papers,23, 312-333
[7]Baig, Mirza Allim, Narasimhan, V. and M Ramschandran,2003:Exchange Market Pressure and the Reserve Bank of India's Intervention Activity, Journal of Policy Modeling,2003(25):727-748.
[8]Battacharya, U., Weller, P.,1997:The Advantage to Hiding One's Hand: Speculation and Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market, Journal of Monetary Economics,1997(39):251-277.
[9]Beetsma, R. M. W. J., Van Der Ploeg, F.1998:Macroeconomic Stabilization and Intervention Policy Under and Exchange Rate Band, Journal of Money and Finance,1998(17):339-353.
[10]Beine, M., C. Laurent,2004:Reported and Secret Interventions in the Foreign Exchange Market, Financial Research Letters,2004(1):215-225.
[11]Ben Crig, Owen Humpage,2001:Sterilized Intervention, Nonsterilized Intervention and Monetary, Working Paper of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland,01-10, July 2001.
[12]Bettina Peiers,1997:Informed Traders, Intervention and Price Leadership: A Deeper View of the Microstructure of the Foreign Exchange Market, The Journal of Finance,1997,52(4).
[13]Branson William,1976:Asset markets and relative prices in exchange rate determination, Stockholm, Institute for International Economic Studies, Seminar Paper,1976,66.
[14]Branson William, P. Masson,1977:Exchange Rates in the Short Run—The Dollar-Deutschemark Rate, European Economic Review,1977(10),303-324.
[15]Branson William, P. Masson,1979:Exchange Rates in the Short Run—Some Further Results, European Economic Review,1979(12),395-402.
[16]Brock, W., C. Hommes,1998:Heterogeneous Beliefs and Routes to Chaos in a Simple Asset Pricing Model, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 1998(22):1235-1274.
[17]Chaboud, A., LeBaron, B., Foreign Exchange Trading Volume and Federal Reserve Intervention, Journal of Futures Markets,2001(21):851-860.
[18]Chang, Y., Taylor, S.J.,1998:Intraday Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention by the Bank of Japan, Journal of International Money and Finance,1998(17),191-210.
[19]Dominguez, K.,1999:The Market Microstructure of Central Bank Intervention, NBER Working Paper 7737.
[20]Dominguez, K., Frankel,J.,1993:Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Effect, American Economic Review,1993(83):1356-1369.
[21]Dominguez, K.,1998:Central Bank Intervention and Exchage Rate Volatility, Journal of International Money and Finance,1998(17):161-190.
[22]Dornbusch, R.,1976:Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics, Journal of Political Economy,1976(84):1161-1176.
[23]Dornbusch, R.,1975:A Portfolio Balance Model of the Open Economy, Journal of Monetary Economics,1975(1):3-20.
[24]Dudler, Herrmann, J.,1988:Monetary Policy and Exchange Market Intervention in Germany, In Bank for International Settlements, ed., Exchange Market Intervention and Monetary Policy. Basel, BIS.
[25]Edison, H. T.,1993:The Effectiveness of Central Bank Intervention:A Survey of the Literature after 1982, Princeton University, Special Papers in International Economics, No.18.
[26]Evans, M.D.D., Lyons, R.K.,2002:Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics, Journal of Political Economy,2002(102):53-72.
[27]Fatum, R., Hutchison, M.,1999, Is Intervention a Signal of Future Monetary Policy? Evidence from the Federal Funds Marekt, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,1999,31(1):54-69.
[28]Fatum, R., Hutchison, M.,2006, Effectiveness of Official Daily Foreign Exchange Market Intervention Operations in Japan, Journal of International Money and Finance,2006(25):199-219.
[29]Fischer, A. M., M. Zurlinden,1999:Exchange Rate Effects of Central Bank Interventions:An Analysis of Transaction Prices, Economic Journal, 1999(109),662-676.
[30]Frankel, M.,C. Pieedzionch and G. Stadtmann,2001:The Foreign Exchange Intervention of ECB, Banca Nazionale Del Lavaro Quarterly Review, 2001(54):218,249-287.
[31]Frankel, J., K. Froot, Chartists,1990:Fundamentalists and Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market, American Economic Review,1990(80)181-185.
[32]Fratzscher, Marcel,2006:On the Long-term Effectiveness of Exchange Rate Communication and Interventions, Journal of International Money and Finance 2006(25):146-167.
[33]Frenkel, M., Pierdzioch Christian, Stadtmann Georg,2006:The Transparency of the ECB Policy:What Can We Learn from Its Foreign Exchange Market Interventions?, Journal of Policy Modeling,2006(28):141-156.
[34]Galati, G., Melick, W.1999:Central Bank Intervention and Market Expectations:An Empirical Study of the Yen/Dollar,1993 - 1996, BIS Working Paper No.77
[35]Girton, L., Roper, D.,1977:A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience, The American Economic Review,2006(67):537-548.
[36]Glick, Reuven, Hutchison M.,2000, Foreign Reserve and Money Dynamics with Asset Portfolio Adjustment:International Evidence, Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money,2000(10):229-247
[37]Glosten, L., Milgrom, P.,1985:Bid, Ask, and Transaction Prices In a Specialist Market with Heterogeneously Informed Traders, Journal of Financial Economics,1985(13):71-100.
[38]Guimaraes, R.,2004:Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy in Japan:Evidence from Identified VARs, IMF Working Paper,315.
[39]Hillebrand, E., Schnabl, G.,2003:The Effects of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention GARCH Estimation and Change Point Detection, Louisiana State University, Working Paper, Aug.29,2003
[40]Hua Mingshu, Gau Yin-Feng,2006:Determinants of Periodic Volatility of Intraday Exchange Rates in the Taipei FX Market, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal,2006(14):193-208.
[41]Hung, J.H.,1997:Intervention Strategies and Exchange Rate Volatility:A Noise Trading Perspective, Journal of International Money and Finance, 1997(16):779-793.
[42]Hutchinson, M.M.,2003:Intervention and Exchange Rate Stabilization Policy in Developing Countries, International Finance,2003(6):109-127.
[43]Ito, T.,2002:Is Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective?, The Japanese Experiences in the 1990s, NBER Working Paper 8914.
[44]Ito, T., Roley, V.V.,1987:News From the U.S. and Japan:Which Moves the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate?, Journal of Monetary Economics 1987(19): 257-277.
[45]Jurgensen, P,1983:Report of the Working Group on Exchange Market Intervention, Washington, Treasury Department.
[46]Kaminsky, G. L., Lewis, K.K.,1996:Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Signal Future Monetary Policy?, Journal of Monetary Economics,1996(37): 285-312.
[47]Kearns, Jonathan, Rigibon, Roberto,2005:Identifying the Efficacy of Central Bank Interventions:Evidence from Australia and Japan, Journal of International Economics,2005(66):31-48.
[48]Kenen, P.B.,1987:Exchange Rate Management:What Role for Intervention?, The American Economic Review,1987,77(2):194-199.
[49]Klein, M.W., Rosengren, E.,1991:Foreign Exchange Intervention As A Signal of Monetary Policy, New England Economic Review,1991:39-50.
[50]Klitgaard, Thomas,Laura Weir,2004:Exchange Rate Changes and Net Positions of Speculators in the Futures Market, Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York,2004,10(1):17-27.
[51]Leahy, M. P,1995:The Profitability of U.S. Intervention in the Foreign Exchange markets, Journal of International Money and Finance,1995(12): 823-44.
[52]LeBaron, B.,1989:Technical Trading Rule Profitability and Foreign Exchange Intervention. Journal of International Economics,1989(49):125-143
[53]Lee,B.S., M.E. Wohar,1992:An Application of the Gireonroper Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure:the Japan Experience,1959-1991, International Economic Journal,1992:993-1013.
[54]Lewis, K.,1995:Occasional Interventions to Target Rates, American Economic Review Vol.85 No.4
[55]Lyons R.K.,1995:Test of Micro-structural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market, Journal of Financial Economics,1995(39):321-351.
[56]Lyons R.K.,1996:Optimal Transparency in a Dealer Market with an Application to Foreign Exchange, Journal of Financial Intermediation, 1996(4):225-254.
[57]Mussa, M.,1981:The Role of Official Intervention, New York:Group of Thirty,1981.
[58]Nagayasu,2004:The Effectiveness of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention During 1991-2001, Economic Letters,2004(84):377-381
[59]Neely, C.J., Weller, P.,2000:The Practice of Central Bank Intervention: Looking under the Hood, Central Banking, Nov.2000,XI(2):24-37
[60]Neely, C.J., Weller, P.,2000:Technical Analysis and Central Bank Intervention, Journal of International Money and Finance, Nov.2000.
[61]Neely, C.J.,2005:An Analysis of Recent Studies of the Effect of Foreign Exchange Intervention, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper, 2005-030B.
[62]Obstfeld, M.,1982:The Capitalization of Income Streams and the Effects of Open-market Policy Under Fixed Exchange Rates, Journal of Monetary Economics,1982(9):87-89.
[63]Obstfeld, M.,1982:Can We Sterilize? Theory and Evidence, The American Economic Review,1982(72):45-50
[64]Obstfeld, M.,1982:Exchange Rates, Inflation and the Sterilization Problem: Germany 1975-1981,1982, NBER Working Paper 963.
[65]Obstfeld, M., The Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Intervention:Recent Experience,1985-1988, In International Policy Coordination and Exchange Rate Fluctuation, Edited by Branson, W.H. et al. The University of Chicago Press,1990,197-237.
[66]Pilbeam, K.,2001:The Profitability of Central Bank Foreign Exchange Market Intervention, Journal of Policy Modeling,2001(23):523-530.
[67]Piti Disyatat, Gabriele Galati,2005:The Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Emerging Market Countries:Evidence from the Czech Koruna, BIS Working Papers, Jan.2005
[68]Popper H., Montgomery, J.,2001:Information Sharing And Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market, Journal of International Economics,2001(55):295-316.
[69]Priscilla Chiu,2003:Transprency versus Constructive Ambiguity in Foreign Exchange Intervention, BIS Working Paper No.144,2003
[70]Reeves, S.F.,1997:Exchange Rate Management When Sterilized Interventions Represent Signals of Monetary Policy, International Review of Economics and Finance,6(4):339-60.
[71]Rogers, J.M., Siklos, P.L.,2003:Foreign Exchange Market Intervention in Two Small Open Economies:the Canadian and Australian Experience, Journal of International Money and Finance,2003(22):393-416.
[72]Rogoff, K.,1984, On the Effects of Sterilized Intervention:An Analysis of Weekly Data, Journal of Monetary Economics,1984(14).
[73]Roper, D., Turnovsky, J.,1980:Optimal Exchange Market Intervention in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model, Canadian Journal of Economics, May.1980: 296-309
[74]Sarno, L., M.Taylor,2001:Official Interventions in the Foreign Exchange Markets:Is It Effective, and If So, How Does It Work?, Journal of Economic Literature,2001(39):839-869.
[75]Sj, B., Sweeney, R.J.,2001:The Foreign-exchange Costs of Central Bank Intervention:Evidence From Sweden, Journal of International Money and Finance 2001(20):219-247.
[76]Soyoung Kim,2003:Monetary Policy, Foreign Exchange Intervention, and the Exchange Rate in a Unifying Framework, Journal of International Economics,2003(60):355-386.
[77]Sweeney J. Richard,1999:Do Central Banks Lose on Foreign-exchange Intervention? A Review Article, Journal of International Economics,1999(49): 245-267.
[78]Takagi, S., Esaka, T.,1999, Sterilization and the Capital Inflow Problem in East Asia,1987-1997, Economic Research Institute Economic Planning Agency, Discussion Paper, No.86.
[79]Tversky, A., D. Kahneman,1981:The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice, Science,1981(211):453-458.
[80]Vitale, P.,1999, Sterilized Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market, Journal of International Economics,1999(49):245-267.
[81]Weymark, Diana N.,1995:Estimating Exchange Market Pressure and the Degree of Exchange Market Intervention for Canada, Journal of International Economics,1995 (39),273-295.
[82]Weymark, Diana N.,1997:Measuring the Degree of Exchange Market Intervention in a small Open Economy, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol.16, No.1.55-79.
[83]Williamson, J., The Exchange Rate System, Washington, D.C., Institute of International Economics,1983.
[84]Younus,1998:Estimating Exchange Market Pressure and the Degree of Exchange Market Intervention for Canada, Journal of International Economics,1995 (39),273-295.
5 Lyons, R.K., "Tests of Micro structural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Financial Economics,1995
6 Johansen, S., "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Co integration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoreg Tessive Models", Econometric,59, pp.1551-1580,1991
7 Report of the Working Group on Exchange Market Intervention (March 1983), produced under the Chairmanship of M. Philippe Jorgensen by Working Group on Exchange Market Intervention
8姜波克主编,《国际金融学》,高等教育出版社,2001.5,pp240