我国财政政策经济效应的实证研究
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摘要
1998年以来，积极财政政策的成功实施使其成为人们关注的重点，积极
财政政策对经济产生的正、负面影响也成了人们研究的热点。为了更深入、
全面地研究我国的财政政策，本文拓宽了研究的视野。采用定性分析与定量
分析相结合，定量分析为主的方法，对我国1978年以来财政政策的经济效
应进行了实证研究，得出了一些有参考价值的结论。论文共分五章，各章的
主要内容分述如下：
第一章为导论。简要介绍选题背景与研究的意义、国内外相关课题的研
究情况、研究思路与研究方法和论文的主要创新与不足之处，对整篇论文作
了概括性的介绍。
第二章为财政政策概述。本章首先分析财政政策涵义的演变。在西方财
政学中，财政政策的定义先是强调财政政策手段，以后逐步向强调财政政策
目标转移。从我国财政学的发展来看，也有一些类似的情况。起初一般都认
为，财政政策是党和国家在财政工作方面的指导方针、原则、行为规范等，
改革开放以后，在西方财政理论不断传入、市场经济逐步确立和宏观调控的
地位日益显著的背景下，我国财政政策的涵义也发生了变化，开始重视财政
目标，并提出科学、准确的定义。其次，介绍财政政策的类型。虽然财政政
策可以有不同的分类，但常见的是按照财政政策对经济作用方式的不同，把
财政政策分为自动稳定的财政政策和相机抉择的财政政策两种类型。其中，
按照在调节经济总量方面的不同作用，相机抉择的财政政策又可以分为扩张
性财政政策、紧缩性财政政策和中性财政政策等三种。第三，介绍财政政策
的经济效应。文章指出财政政策效应是财政政策实施的最终反应和结果。由
于财政政策作用的范围和涉及面广，反应和结果也是各不相同，因此，也可
以从不同的角度对财政政策的经济效应进行划分。这部分重点介绍财政政策
的增长效应、挤出效应和风险效应的涵义，为后面几章的分析奠定基础。最
后，本章对1978年以来我国的财政政策作了简要回顾。这段时期可分为三
个主要的阶段，文章分别介绍了这三个阶段的相应财政政策。
第三章研究财政政策的增长效应，即对我国经济增长的推动作用。本章
我国财政政策经济效应的实证研究
（
以经济增长理论作为切入点，简要回顾了古典增长理论、现代外生增长理论
和“新”增长理论或内生增长理论，并分析经济增长理论中的财政政策，揭
示了财政政策促进经济增长的原理和实现方式。接着，文章对我国财政政策
与经济增长的关系做了实证研究。文章先分析经济总量指标GDP与主要财
政指标，如财政支出、财政收人、财政赤字、宏观税负和国债累积余额等的
关系，再分析相应指标增长率的关系，并以经济增长率指标对财政方面增长
率指标进行回归，从实证的角度说明财政政策对经济增长的贡献。最后，本
章利用宏观计量经济模型，分析预算变动对经济扩张的影响。文章把预算变
动效应分为随意效应、自动效应和总效应，利用模型导出三种效应的计算公
式，并根据中国的数据算出三种效应，以此来分析预算变动对经济增长的影
响。
第四章研究财政政策的挤出效应，即财政政策对民间投资、消费、资本
积累和产出等可能产生的影响。文章先探讨了挤出效应的涵义及类型：根据
所处的就业环境，分为充分就业情况下的挤出效应和是非充分就业情况下的
挤出效应；根据财政支出对民间投资的挤出程度，分为完全的挤出效应、部
分挤出效应和零挤出效应。其中，持有完全挤出效应的观点又可分为三种，
即早期古典完全挤出论、超理性完全挤出论和资金完全挤出论。并从资金供
绘和需求的角度，分析产生挤出效应的可能性。接着，文章从IS—LM模型、
国债对私人资本积累的影响和财政支出结构对私人消费的影响三个角度出
发，研究我国财政政策对经济的挤出效应。第一种方法是利用IS－LM模型。
文章在介绍IS－LM模型的基础上，估计了我国IS曲线和LM曲线的形状，
发现我国的IS－LM模型的形状是由陡峭的IS曲线和平缓的LM曲线结合而
成，这样，在我国的宏观经济背景下，财政政策的挤出效应是相当有限的。
第二种方法是分析国债对私人资本积累的影响。文章利用生命周期模型，通
过对模型进行参数估计，来分析债务对私人资本形成的长期影响。研究结果
是AK—0．087AD，即增加单位债务发行将导致私人资本0．087单位的增加。
第三种方法是分析财政支出结构对私人消费的影响。与传统研究不同，这里
将对财政支出进行分类，并分别考虑它们对私人消费的不同影响。文章把财
政支出分成三个部分：政府对公共产品的支出、政府对健康及教育等的支出
n
内 容提要
和公共部门投资等。研究发现，政府对公共产品的支出和公共部门投资的增
加有利于促
Having been successfully implemented by the Chinese government from 1998, the active fiscal policy began to be the focus of public attention. The positive and negative effects of active fiscal policy also become the hotspot of economic research. To study thoroughly and roundly, we expand the research range and come to some valuable conclusions. We use qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to study the economic effects of Chinese fiscal policy from 1978. This paper consists of five chapters, the main contents of which are introduced as bellow.
Chapter I is introduction. This chapter includes the background of choosing the topic, the significance of this research, the related studies in China and abroad, research methods, and the main innovation and limitation. In this chapter, we introduce the whole paper briefly.
Chapter II is the summaries of fiscal policy. First, we analyze the evolvement of the meaning of fiscal policy. In the west, the definition of fiscal policy emphasized its means at the beginning, then, it turned to emphasize its targets. In China, similar thing happens in the development of the public finance. At first, economists consider fiscal policy as the state's guidelines, principles, and behavior criterions etc. After economic reform and open, the meaning of Chinese fiscal policy has changed. The economists began to put emphasis on fiscal targets and put forward accurate definition. Secondly, we introduce the types of fiscal policy. Though we have many ways of classification, the usual way is to divide it into the automatic stable fiscal policy and the discretionary fiscal policy. According to the different roles on economic aggregates, the latter can also be divided into extending fiscal policy, tightening fiscal policy and neutral fiscal policy. Third, we introduce the economic effects of fiscal po
licy. It is the results of implementing fiscal policy. Because the effect range of fiscal policy is very wide and its results are different, the effects can be divided into many kinds from different point of
view. In this chapter, we mainly introduce three kinds of effects, which are increasing effect, crowding-out effect and risk effect, and thus we lay sound basis for the following chapters. At last, we give a brief review of Chinese fiscal policy from 1978. This period can be divided into three important stages, in which we present corresponding policy.
Chapter III is about the increasing effect, which is the pushing effect on economic growth by having implemented fiscal policy. Firstly, we run back over the classic theory, modern exogenous theory and "new" or endogenous theory of economic growth, analyze the fiscal policy in the theory of economic growth and reveal the principles and ways by which fiscal policy speed up economic growth. Secondly, we have a positive analysis on the relationship between the fiscal policy and economic growth. We study the correlation between "GDP" and some important indicators such as government expenditures, government revenues, deficit, macro-burden of taxation, and balance of debts etc, then give the regression of those indicators and show the importance of fiscal policy on economic growth from positive view. At last, we use macro-econometric model for the analysis of the contribution of budgetary changes to economic expansion. The fiscal effects of annual changes of government sector budgets consist of discretionary, automatic, and total effects. Three kinds of formulas are derived from the model to measure these effects. Using annual data for the case of China, we can work out three kinds of effects by which government sector's contribution to economic growth can be analyzed.
Chapter IV is about the crowding-out effect of fiscal policy, which is the outcome the fiscal policy acts on folk investment, consumption, capital accumulation, and output etc. First, we discuss the meaning and types of this effect. According to the condition of employment, this effect includes two kinds, which are in the situation of full-employment and non-full-employm
财政政策对经济产生的正、负面影响也成了人们研究的热点。为了更深入、
全面地研究我国的财政政策，本文拓宽了研究的视野。采用定性分析与定量
分析相结合，定量分析为主的方法，对我国1978年以来财政政策的经济效
应进行了实证研究，得出了一些有参考价值的结论。论文共分五章，各章的
主要内容分述如下：
第一章为导论。简要介绍选题背景与研究的意义、国内外相关课题的研
究情况、研究思路与研究方法和论文的主要创新与不足之处，对整篇论文作
了概括性的介绍。
第二章为财政政策概述。本章首先分析财政政策涵义的演变。在西方财
政学中，财政政策的定义先是强调财政政策手段，以后逐步向强调财政政策
目标转移。从我国财政学的发展来看，也有一些类似的情况。起初一般都认
为，财政政策是党和国家在财政工作方面的指导方针、原则、行为规范等，
改革开放以后，在西方财政理论不断传入、市场经济逐步确立和宏观调控的
地位日益显著的背景下，我国财政政策的涵义也发生了变化，开始重视财政
目标，并提出科学、准确的定义。其次，介绍财政政策的类型。虽然财政政
策可以有不同的分类，但常见的是按照财政政策对经济作用方式的不同，把
财政政策分为自动稳定的财政政策和相机抉择的财政政策两种类型。其中，
按照在调节经济总量方面的不同作用，相机抉择的财政政策又可以分为扩张
性财政政策、紧缩性财政政策和中性财政政策等三种。第三，介绍财政政策
的经济效应。文章指出财政政策效应是财政政策实施的最终反应和结果。由
于财政政策作用的范围和涉及面广，反应和结果也是各不相同，因此，也可
以从不同的角度对财政政策的经济效应进行划分。这部分重点介绍财政政策
的增长效应、挤出效应和风险效应的涵义，为后面几章的分析奠定基础。最
后，本章对1978年以来我国的财政政策作了简要回顾。这段时期可分为三
个主要的阶段，文章分别介绍了这三个阶段的相应财政政策。
第三章研究财政政策的增长效应，即对我国经济增长的推动作用。本章
我国财政政策经济效应的实证研究
（
以经济增长理论作为切入点，简要回顾了古典增长理论、现代外生增长理论
和“新”增长理论或内生增长理论，并分析经济增长理论中的财政政策，揭
示了财政政策促进经济增长的原理和实现方式。接着，文章对我国财政政策
与经济增长的关系做了实证研究。文章先分析经济总量指标GDP与主要财
政指标，如财政支出、财政收人、财政赤字、宏观税负和国债累积余额等的
关系，再分析相应指标增长率的关系，并以经济增长率指标对财政方面增长
率指标进行回归，从实证的角度说明财政政策对经济增长的贡献。最后，本
章利用宏观计量经济模型，分析预算变动对经济扩张的影响。文章把预算变
动效应分为随意效应、自动效应和总效应，利用模型导出三种效应的计算公
式，并根据中国的数据算出三种效应，以此来分析预算变动对经济增长的影
响。
第四章研究财政政策的挤出效应，即财政政策对民间投资、消费、资本
积累和产出等可能产生的影响。文章先探讨了挤出效应的涵义及类型：根据
所处的就业环境，分为充分就业情况下的挤出效应和是非充分就业情况下的
挤出效应；根据财政支出对民间投资的挤出程度，分为完全的挤出效应、部
分挤出效应和零挤出效应。其中，持有完全挤出效应的观点又可分为三种，
即早期古典完全挤出论、超理性完全挤出论和资金完全挤出论。并从资金供
绘和需求的角度，分析产生挤出效应的可能性。接着，文章从IS—LM模型、
国债对私人资本积累的影响和财政支出结构对私人消费的影响三个角度出
发，研究我国财政政策对经济的挤出效应。第一种方法是利用IS－LM模型。
文章在介绍IS－LM模型的基础上，估计了我国IS曲线和LM曲线的形状，
发现我国的IS－LM模型的形状是由陡峭的IS曲线和平缓的LM曲线结合而
成，这样，在我国的宏观经济背景下，财政政策的挤出效应是相当有限的。
第二种方法是分析国债对私人资本积累的影响。文章利用生命周期模型，通
过对模型进行参数估计，来分析债务对私人资本形成的长期影响。研究结果
是AK—0．087AD，即增加单位债务发行将导致私人资本0．087单位的增加。
第三种方法是分析财政支出结构对私人消费的影响。与传统研究不同，这里
将对财政支出进行分类，并分别考虑它们对私人消费的不同影响。文章把财
政支出分成三个部分：政府对公共产品的支出、政府对健康及教育等的支出
n
内 容提要
和公共部门投资等。研究发现，政府对公共产品的支出和公共部门投资的增
加有利于促
Having been successfully implemented by the Chinese government from 1998, the active fiscal policy began to be the focus of public attention. The positive and negative effects of active fiscal policy also become the hotspot of economic research. To study thoroughly and roundly, we expand the research range and come to some valuable conclusions. We use qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to study the economic effects of Chinese fiscal policy from 1978. This paper consists of five chapters, the main contents of which are introduced as bellow.
Chapter I is introduction. This chapter includes the background of choosing the topic, the significance of this research, the related studies in China and abroad, research methods, and the main innovation and limitation. In this chapter, we introduce the whole paper briefly.
Chapter II is the summaries of fiscal policy. First, we analyze the evolvement of the meaning of fiscal policy. In the west, the definition of fiscal policy emphasized its means at the beginning, then, it turned to emphasize its targets. In China, similar thing happens in the development of the public finance. At first, economists consider fiscal policy as the state's guidelines, principles, and behavior criterions etc. After economic reform and open, the meaning of Chinese fiscal policy has changed. The economists began to put emphasis on fiscal targets and put forward accurate definition. Secondly, we introduce the types of fiscal policy. Though we have many ways of classification, the usual way is to divide it into the automatic stable fiscal policy and the discretionary fiscal policy. According to the different roles on economic aggregates, the latter can also be divided into extending fiscal policy, tightening fiscal policy and neutral fiscal policy. Third, we introduce the economic effects of fiscal po
licy. It is the results of implementing fiscal policy. Because the effect range of fiscal policy is very wide and its results are different, the effects can be divided into many kinds from different point of
view. In this chapter, we mainly introduce three kinds of effects, which are increasing effect, crowding-out effect and risk effect, and thus we lay sound basis for the following chapters. At last, we give a brief review of Chinese fiscal policy from 1978. This period can be divided into three important stages, in which we present corresponding policy.
Chapter III is about the increasing effect, which is the pushing effect on economic growth by having implemented fiscal policy. Firstly, we run back over the classic theory, modern exogenous theory and "new" or endogenous theory of economic growth, analyze the fiscal policy in the theory of economic growth and reveal the principles and ways by which fiscal policy speed up economic growth. Secondly, we have a positive analysis on the relationship between the fiscal policy and economic growth. We study the correlation between "GDP" and some important indicators such as government expenditures, government revenues, deficit, macro-burden of taxation, and balance of debts etc, then give the regression of those indicators and show the importance of fiscal policy on economic growth from positive view. At last, we use macro-econometric model for the analysis of the contribution of budgetary changes to economic expansion. The fiscal effects of annual changes of government sector budgets consist of discretionary, automatic, and total effects. Three kinds of formulas are derived from the model to measure these effects. Using annual data for the case of China, we can work out three kinds of effects by which government sector's contribution to economic growth can be analyzed.
Chapter IV is about the crowding-out effect of fiscal policy, which is the outcome the fiscal policy acts on folk investment, consumption, capital accumulation, and output etc. First, we discuss the meaning and types of this effect. According to the condition of employment, this effect includes two kinds, which are in the situation of full-employment and non-full-employm
引文
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岳树民，刘红艺，李武好．财政困难与财政风险[J]．代经济科学，2000，(1) ．
于天义．财政风险分析[J]．经济研究参考，2000，(73) ．
[美]约翰·伊特韦尔，默里·米尔盖特，彼得·纽曼等编．新帕尔格雷夫经济学大 辞典第一卷：A-D[M]．经济科学出版社，1992，788-790．
张馨．我国财政是否存在风险[N]．中国财经报，2001．
郑晓林．县乡财政应警惕九大风险[J]．湖北经济，2001，(8) ．
周平海，王雷主编．新编西方经济学[M]．上海：立信会计出版社，2000．
赵志耘著．公债经济效应论[M]．北京：中国财政经济出版社，1997． 260-272．
Arrow,Kenneth J.(1962) .The Economic Implication of Learning by Doing.Review of Economic Studies, Vol.29:155-73．
Arrow,Kenneth J.,Kurz,Mordecai.(1970) .Public Investment ,the Rate of Return, and Optimal Fiscal Policy.The John Hopkins Press.Baltimore.
Atkinson,A.B.,and J.Stiglitz.(1980) .Lectures on Public Economics.New York:McGraw-Hill.
Barro,Robert.( 1974) .Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?Journal of Political Economy 82:1095-1117．
Barro.Robert J.(1991) . Government Spending in a Simple Models of Endogenous
Growth Journal of Political Economy,Vol.98,no.5pt.2:sl03-25．
Basil A.Dalamagas.(1987) .Government Deficits,Crowding Out,and Inflation:Some International Evidence,Public Finance. Vol.XXXXII.No.1,pp64-84．
Blinder,Alan,and Robert Solow.(1974) .Anlytical Foundations of Fiscal Policy,in the Economics of Public Finance(Washington,D.C.:The Brookings Institution).
Bruce,Neil,and Douglas Purvis,(1983) .Fiscal Policy and Recovery from the Great
Recession,Canadian Public Policy ,Vol.IX,No. l,pp.53-67．
Bossons, John,and Peter Dungan.(1983) .The Government Deficit:TooHigh or Too Low? Canadian Tax Journal, Vol.31,No. 1,pp.1-29．
Curtis ,Douglas,and Harry Kitchen.(1975) .Some Quantitative Aspects of Canadian Budgetary Policy 1953-1971 ,Public Finance,Vol.XXX,No. l,pp. 108-26．
Cavaco-Silva,Anibal.(1977) .Economic Effects of Public Debt.New York:St.Martin's.
Feldstein,Martm.(1976) .Perceived Wealth inBonds and Social Security:A Comment.Journal of Political Economy 84:331-36．
Cebula,R..(1978) .An Empirical Analysis of the Crowding-out Effect of Federal.Kyklos,Vol.31,No.3,pp.424-36．
Cebula,R.,Carlos,c.,and Coch,J.(1981) .The Crowding-out Effect of Federal Government Outlay Decisions: An Empirical Note. Public Choice,Vol.36．
Chan-Lee, J.H., and Kato, H.(1984) .A Comparison of Simulation Properties of National Econometric Models.OECD Economic Studies(spring),pp.109-50．
Cobham,D..(1980) .The Influence of the United Kingdom's Public Sector Deficit on its Money Stock,BuIletin of Economic Research ,Vol.32．
Cass,David(1965) . Optimum Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation .Review of Economic Studies,Vol.32:233-40．
Douglas C.A. Curtis.(1987) .Quantitative Estimates of Canadian Fiscal Policy 1970-1983, Public Finance/Finances Publiques,Vol.XXXXII,No. 1,pp.42-65
David,P.A, and J.L. Scadding.(1974) .Private Saving,Ultrarationality,Aggregation and Dension' s Law, Journal of Political Economy.
Dinh,Hinh T (1999) . Fiscal Solvency and Sustainability in Economic
Management,Policy Research Working paper No.2213,the world Bank.
Darrat,A..(1985) .Are Budget Deficits and Wage Costs Prime Determinants of Inflation?,Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Vol.Ⅱ,No.2．
Friedman,M.,A(1970) . theoretical Framework for Monetary Analysis,Journal of Political Economy.
Fromm,G., and Klein,L.r..(1973) .A Comparison of Eleven Econometric Models of the United States,American Economic Review.
Grossman,Gene M.,Helpman,Elhanan(1991) .Trade,Knowledge Spillovers,and Growth European Economic Review ,Vol.35:517-26．
George Tridimas.(1992) .A note on the Effects of Government Expenditures on Private Consumption,Public Finance/Finances Publiques Vol.47(1) ,pp153-161．
Hamburger,M.J., and Zwick,B..(1981) .Deficits,Money,and Inflation Journal of Monetary Economics.
Jahn,F.,(1978) ,A Flow of Funds Analysis of Crowding-out,Southern Economic Journal ,Vol.45,No. 1．
Koopmans,Tialling C.(1965) .On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth.In,The Economic Approach to Development Planning .North-Holland, Amsterdam.
Leimer,D.R.,and S.D.Lesnoy.(1982) .Social Security and Private Saving:Reply..Journal of Political Economy 90:630-42．
Lucas,Robert E.(1988) .On the Mechanics of Economic Development Journal of Monetary Economics,Vol.22:3-42
Modigliani,Franco.(1961) .Long-run Implications of Alternative Fiscal Policies and the Burden of the National Debt Economic Journal 71:730-55．
OECD,(1985) .The Role of the Public Sector ,by P.Saunders and F.Klau,OECD Economic Studies.
Polackova,Hana.(1998) .Contingent Government Liabilities:A Hidden Risk for Fiscal Stability,Policy Research Working Paper No.1989,the World Bank.
Patinkin,D.(1948) .Price Flexibility and Full Emplopment American Economic Review.
Romer ,Paul M.(1986) .Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth Journal of Political Economy ,Vol.94,no.5:1002-37．
Sharp, A.,and Flenniken,P..(1978) .Budget Deficits: A major Cause of Inflation?,Public Finance Quarterly,No.6,No. 1．
Sorensen,Peter B(1993) .Human Capital Investment,Government,and Endogenous Growth.Finanzarchiv,Neue Folge Band 50,Heft1:73-93
Solow,Robert M.(1956) .A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth .Quarterly Journal of Economics,Vol.70:56-94
Swan,Trevor W.(1956) .Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation .Economic Record ,Vol.32:334-61
Uzawa,Hirofumi(1963) .Optimal Growth in a Two-Sector Model of Capital Accumulation. Review of Economic Studies, Vol.31:1-24．
Willem Buiter,Giancarlo Corsetti and Nouriel Roubini.(1993) .Excessive Deficits: Sense and Nonsense in the Treaty of Manstricht,Economic Policy ,April.
财政部科研所《财政风险问题研究》课题组．规范行政运行，缓解财政风险[J]． 财政研究，2001，(10) ．
陈景耀．对当前中国财政可持续性的探讨[J]．财政与税务，2000，(12) ：20-25．
邓子基著．财政学原理(修订本)[M]．北京：经济科学出版社，1997． 396．
傅道忠．中国国债风险实证分析[J]．财政与税务，2001，(5) ：43-45．
樊纲．论“国家综合负债”[J]．经济研究，1999，(5) ．
[美]格林沃尔德(D．Greenwlod)编，翻译组译．现代经济词典[M].北京：商务 印书馆，1981．
高志立，陈志国，王延杰．财政风险及其构成内容的理论分析[J]．财政与税务， 2001，(8) ：20-23．
贾康．我国国债政策：总量扩张的同时注意结构调整与风险控制[J]．中国财政， 2000，(6) ：16-18．
刘洋，刘洪．从数字看当前财政风险[J]．四川财政，1999，(11) ．
李平，张金萍，李彦杰．中国财政政策与挤出效应[J].经济评论，1999,(3) ：39-44．
厉以宁主编．西方经济学[M]．北京：高等教育出版社，2000． 286-310．
刘迎秋．论中国现阶段的赤字率和债务率及其警戒线[J]．经济研究，2001， (8) ：3-14．
刘溶沧，马拴友．赤字、国债与经济增长关系的实证分析-兼评积极财政政策 是否有挤出效应[J]．经济研究，2001，(2) ：13-19．
李茂生，柏冬秀著．中国财政政策研究[M]．北京：中国社会科学出版社， 1999． 33-42．
马拴友．中国公共部门债务和赤字的可持续性分析-兼评积极财政政策的不可 持续性及其冲击[J]．经济研究，2001，(8) ：15-24．
[美]曼昆著，梁小民译．经济学原理[M]．北京：生活、读书、新知三联书店，
北京大学出版社，1999． 352．
马斌、管汝平．我国国债挤出效应分析[J]．投资研究，1999，(9) ：10．
孙文学等著．中国财政政策实证分析与选择[M]．北京：中国财政经济出版社， 2000． 15-144．
唐龙生．关于政府化解国债风险的问题[J]．财政与税务，2000，(12) ：58-61．
[日]藤田晴．财政政策的理论[M]．日本：劲草书房，1996．
王晶．财政风险产生的信用因素分析[J]．财政与税务，2001，(3) ：34-36．
王美涵．中国财政风险实证研究[M]．北京：中国财政经济出版社，1999．
袁东．公共债务与经济增长[M].北京：中国发展出版社，2000．
岳树民，刘红艺，李武好．财政困难与财政风险[J]．代经济科学，2000，(1) ．
于天义．财政风险分析[J]．经济研究参考，2000，(73) ．
[美]约翰·伊特韦尔，默里·米尔盖特，彼得·纽曼等编．新帕尔格雷夫经济学大 辞典第一卷：A-D[M]．经济科学出版社，1992，788-790．
张馨．我国财政是否存在风险[N]．中国财经报，2001．
郑晓林．县乡财政应警惕九大风险[J]．湖北经济，2001，(8) ．
周平海，王雷主编．新编西方经济学[M]．上海：立信会计出版社，2000．
赵志耘著．公债经济效应论[M]．北京：中国财政经济出版社，1997． 260-272．
Arrow,Kenneth J.(1962) .The Economic Implication of Learning by Doing.Review of Economic Studies, Vol.29:155-73．
Arrow,Kenneth J.,Kurz,Mordecai.(1970) .Public Investment ,the Rate of Return, and Optimal Fiscal Policy.The John Hopkins Press.Baltimore.
Atkinson,A.B.,and J.Stiglitz.(1980) .Lectures on Public Economics.New York:McGraw-Hill.
Barro,Robert.( 1974) .Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?Journal of Political Economy 82:1095-1117．
Barro.Robert J.(1991) . Government Spending in a Simple Models of Endogenous
Growth Journal of Political Economy,Vol.98,no.5pt.2:sl03-25．
Basil A.Dalamagas.(1987) .Government Deficits,Crowding Out,and Inflation:Some International Evidence,Public Finance. Vol.XXXXII.No.1,pp64-84．
Blinder,Alan,and Robert Solow.(1974) .Anlytical Foundations of Fiscal Policy,in the Economics of Public Finance(Washington,D.C.:The Brookings Institution).
Bruce,Neil,and Douglas Purvis,(1983) .Fiscal Policy and Recovery from the Great
Recession,Canadian Public Policy ,Vol.IX,No. l,pp.53-67．
Bossons, John,and Peter Dungan.(1983) .The Government Deficit:TooHigh or Too Low? Canadian Tax Journal, Vol.31,No. 1,pp.1-29．
Curtis ,Douglas,and Harry Kitchen.(1975) .Some Quantitative Aspects of Canadian Budgetary Policy 1953-1971 ,Public Finance,Vol.XXX,No. l,pp. 108-26．
Cavaco-Silva,Anibal.(1977) .Economic Effects of Public Debt.New York:St.Martin's.
Feldstein,Martm.(1976) .Perceived Wealth inBonds and Social Security:A Comment.Journal of Political Economy 84:331-36．
Cebula,R..(1978) .An Empirical Analysis of the Crowding-out Effect of Federal.Kyklos,Vol.31,No.3,pp.424-36．
Cebula,R.,Carlos,c.,and Coch,J.(1981) .The Crowding-out Effect of Federal Government Outlay Decisions: An Empirical Note. Public Choice,Vol.36．
Chan-Lee, J.H., and Kato, H.(1984) .A Comparison of Simulation Properties of National Econometric Models.OECD Economic Studies(spring),pp.109-50．
Cobham,D..(1980) .The Influence of the United Kingdom's Public Sector Deficit on its Money Stock,BuIletin of Economic Research ,Vol.32．
Cass,David(1965) . Optimum Growth in an Aggregative Model of Capital Accumulation .Review of Economic Studies,Vol.32:233-40．
Douglas C.A. Curtis.(1987) .Quantitative Estimates of Canadian Fiscal Policy 1970-1983, Public Finance/Finances Publiques,Vol.XXXXII,No. 1,pp.42-65
David,P.A, and J.L. Scadding.(1974) .Private Saving,Ultrarationality,Aggregation and Dension' s Law, Journal of Political Economy.
Dinh,Hinh T (1999) . Fiscal Solvency and Sustainability in Economic
Management,Policy Research Working paper No.2213,the world Bank.
Darrat,A..(1985) .Are Budget Deficits and Wage Costs Prime Determinants of Inflation?,Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Vol.Ⅱ,No.2．
Friedman,M.,A(1970) . theoretical Framework for Monetary Analysis,Journal of Political Economy.
Fromm,G., and Klein,L.r..(1973) .A Comparison of Eleven Econometric Models of the United States,American Economic Review.
Grossman,Gene M.,Helpman,Elhanan(1991) .Trade,Knowledge Spillovers,and Growth European Economic Review ,Vol.35:517-26．
George Tridimas.(1992) .A note on the Effects of Government Expenditures on Private Consumption,Public Finance/Finances Publiques Vol.47(1) ,pp153-161．
Hamburger,M.J., and Zwick,B..(1981) .Deficits,Money,and Inflation Journal of Monetary Economics.
Jahn,F.,(1978) ,A Flow of Funds Analysis of Crowding-out,Southern Economic Journal ,Vol.45,No. 1．
Koopmans,Tialling C.(1965) .On the Concept of Optimal Economic Growth.In,The Economic Approach to Development Planning .North-Holland, Amsterdam.
Leimer,D.R.,and S.D.Lesnoy.(1982) .Social Security and Private Saving:Reply..Journal of Political Economy 90:630-42．
Lucas,Robert E.(1988) .On the Mechanics of Economic Development Journal of Monetary Economics,Vol.22:3-42
Modigliani,Franco.(1961) .Long-run Implications of Alternative Fiscal Policies and the Burden of the National Debt Economic Journal 71:730-55．
OECD,(1985) .The Role of the Public Sector ,by P.Saunders and F.Klau,OECD Economic Studies.
Polackova,Hana.(1998) .Contingent Government Liabilities:A Hidden Risk for Fiscal Stability,Policy Research Working Paper No.1989,the World Bank.
Patinkin,D.(1948) .Price Flexibility and Full Emplopment American Economic Review.
Romer ,Paul M.(1986) .Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth Journal of Political Economy ,Vol.94,no.5:1002-37．
Sharp, A.,and Flenniken,P..(1978) .Budget Deficits: A major Cause of Inflation?,Public Finance Quarterly,No.6,No. 1．
Sorensen,Peter B(1993) .Human Capital Investment,Government,and Endogenous Growth.Finanzarchiv,Neue Folge Band 50,Heft1:73-93
Solow,Robert M.(1956) .A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth .Quarterly Journal of Economics,Vol.70:56-94
Swan,Trevor W.(1956) .Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation .Economic Record ,Vol.32:334-61
Uzawa,Hirofumi(1963) .Optimal Growth in a Two-Sector Model of Capital Accumulation. Review of Economic Studies, Vol.31:1-24．
Willem Buiter,Giancarlo Corsetti and Nouriel Roubini.(1993) .Excessive Deficits: Sense and Nonsense in the Treaty of Manstricht,Economic Policy ,April.