增值税转型的预期效应分析
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摘要
随着我国经济的发展,自1994年开始实行的生产型增值税暴露出了许多矛盾和问题,对固定资产投资产生了一定的负面作用,增值税的转型势在必行。2004年、2007年我国分别在东北三省和中部六省进行了从生产型增值税向消费型增值税转变的改革试点。2009年1月1日起,又在全国范围内(不分地区和行业)推广开来。增值税的全面转型必将对我国各地区的财政收入、产业结构、经济结构等带来不可避免的影响,江西作为中部省份之一也同样不例外。本文采用了定量分析和定性分析相结合的方法,依据税收学的公平和效率原则,运用经济学、投资学的有关理论和方法,借助大量数据,通过构建相关模型,积极地探索了增值税转型对江西财政、经济将产生的影响。
本文共分为五部分:
第一部分,导论。首先阐明了选题的背景和意义,然后在对国内外相关研究文献进行回顾和评价的基础上,针对江西省的实际情况,构建本文研究的方法与基本框架。
第二部分,增值税转型的基本理论分析。在综合前人对增值税转型研究的基础上,介绍增值税的概念、相关理论,为全文作好理论铺垫。然后从分析增值税的类型入手,对三种增值税的经济效应进行比较,分别从基本定义的静态角度、经济运行的动态角度以及财务角度展开比较三种增值税的经济效应。同时,介绍了国内外增值税制度的变迁历程及原因,并总结了增值税转型在我国呈现出的特点。
第三部分,增值税转型对江西财政的预期效应。采用定量和定性相结合的方法,从转型对江西财政收入的直接影响和间接影响两方面进行分析。借助大量的数据,通过测算转型对增值税、城市维护建设税、教育费附加和企业所得税影响,定量地说明转型对江西财政收入的直接效应。结合微观和宏观角度,分别从企业投资、技术进步、居民消费、政府投资等方面来说明转型将对江西财政收入所产生的间接效应。
第四部分,增值税转型对江西经济的预期效应。分别从转型对企业税收负担、投资、产业结构的影响来分析转型将给江西带来的经济效应。在企业税收负担方面,分别对各行业、各生命周期企业税收负担进行测算和阐述。在投资方面,以宏观和微观相结合为基础来分析。宏观角度,分析转型对企业投资总水平的影响,主要是通过转型对营业现金流、投资利润率等测算来说明;微观角度,以江西上市公司的数据构建回归模型,比较转型对不同资本构成企业投资的影响。产业结构方面,从产业产出角度出发,通过要素产出弹性及产品价格弹性因素对最终产出的作用机制,建立宏观计量经济模型,实证分析转型将对江西产业结构产生的效应。
第五部分,增值税转型可能存在的负面效应及应对措施。结合前文分析说明增值税转型对江西可能产生的负面影响,如江西以农业为主的传统产业构成,难以享受到增值税转型带来的优惠;不利于第三产业的发展;对交通运输等瓶颈产业对经济的发展的制约会更加趋紧;“投资软约束”会降低增值税转型的效果等,并提出一系列对策和建议。
本文认为,增值税转型在全国推广不会给江西财政收入带来很大压力。通过数据测算,得出增值税的自然增长可以抵消转型所造成的财政收入减少,而且自2013年起,财政将增收6.69亿元。从长期来看,增值税转型有利于财政收入的增加,会对财政收入产生长期的、有利的影响。从税收负担方面看,增值税转型政策的实施降低了企业的实际税率,且设备、工器具类固定资产投资额越大,降低的幅度越大。对于江西工业企业和商品流通企业来说,增值税转型更能降低江西工业企业税负,尤其是降低江西电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业的税负。从投资方面看,增值税转型会在一定程度上刺激江西投资,为企业在使用资金方面获得了可贵的时间价值,增加了企业可支配的投入资本额,促进企业投资的增长,也提高社会投资总量。从产业结构方面看,实行增值税转型以后受益最大的是第二产业。由此,政府和企业应当对转型政策有一个清醒的认识,根据自身的情况应对转型政策。
As China economic development, it has exposed many contradictions and problems since the start of production-type value-added tax (VAT) in 1994. It also played negative effect in fixed assets investment. So tax transformation is imperative. We carry out the reform of VAT type's transition in northeast provinces in 2004 and central provinces in 2007. Since January 1, 2009, VAT transformation implements across the country (regardless of region and industry).The overall transformation will bring inevitable effect on financial income, industrial structure and economic structure in various regions, Jiangxi as one of the central provinces is also no exception. This paper combines with qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, bases on principles of equity and efficiency according to the tax studies, uses methods and theories of economics and investment, through large amounts of data, constructs the relevant model to actively explore the impact of Jiangxi finance and economy in VAT transformation.
This paper is divided into five parts:
The first part is preamble. This part explains background and significance of this thesis, and then reviews literature at home and abroad. According to the actual conditions of Jiangxi, builds method and framework for this paper.
The second part is basic theories Analysis of value-added tax transformation. This part based on the VAT transformation study of our predecessors, introduces the concept of VAT, related theories, to make theoretical groundwork for full-text. Then starting from analyzing the types of VAT, economic effects of three kinds of VAT are compared, respectively from the static view of basic definition, the dynamic view of the economy and the financial view. Meanwhile, the domestic and foreign process of VAT system and reasons for the changes are introduced, also, characteristics of VAT transformation in China are summarized.
The third part is the expected effect on finance by VAT transformation in Jiangxi.Combining quantitative and qualitative methods, from direct and indirect two aspects, transformation effects on fiscal revenue in Jiangxi are analyzed. With large amounts of data, by measuring transformation impact of VAT, urban maintenance and construction tax, corporate income tax surcharge for education, quantitatively describe the transformation on direct effects of fiscal revenue in Jiangxi. Combination of micro and macro point of view, respectively, from business investment, technological progress, consumption, government investment to illustrate the transformation on indirect effects of fiscal revenue in Jiangxi.
The forth Part is the expected effects on economy by VAT transformation in Jiangxi. Respectively from the tax burden for businesses, investment and industrial structure, the impact of the transformation are analyzed. In the corporate tax burden, respectively, from various industries and life-cycle, measures and elaborates tax burden for businesses. In investment, combining with macro and micro as basis are used. Transformation impact on business investment overall are calculated and described in macro perspective, primarily through real tax burden of enterprises, the operating cash flow and the profit investment ratio. Using the data of listed companies in Jiangxi to build the regression model, transformation effects on enterprise investment among different capital formation are compared in micro perspective. In Industrial structure, starting from the industry output, through the role of factor output elasticity and product price elasticity on the final output mechanism; macro-econometric models are established to empirically analyze transformation effect on industrial structure in Jiangxi.
The fifth part is imaginable negative effects by VAT transformation and countermeasures. This part illuminates that VAT transformation would bring some negative impact in Jiangxi, such as agriculture-based traditional industries composition is difficult to enjoy the benefits; development of tertiary industry is hard; developments of transport and other bottlenecks industry are even more tight; 'soft investment constraints' can reduce the effect, and then puts forward series of measures and proposals.
This paper argues that VAT transformation across the country will not bring great pressure on revenue in Jiangxi. Through the data, natural growth of VAT would offset reduction of fiscal revenues by transformation, and since 2013, the finance will increase 669 million. In the long term, VAT transformation is conducive to the increase in fiscal revenue. Fiscal revenues will have long-term, beneficial impact. For the tax burden perspective, implementation of policy would reduce the effective tax rate of enterprises, and the more fixed asset investment, the greater the reduction in amplitude. For industrial enterprises and commercial enterprises in Jiangxi, the VAT transformation will reduce more tax burden in industrial enterprises, particularly electric power, gas and water production and supply industry. For investment perspective, VAT transformation will stimulate investment in a certain extent in Jiangxi, will provide valuable time value in using funds for enterprises, will increase controllable invested capital for enterprises promote the growth of business investment, and also will increase the total social investment volume. For the industrial, implementation of policy most benefits the second industry. As a result, government and businesses should have a sober understanding in policy; according to their situation make right response to transition policies.
本文共分为五部分:
第一部分,导论。首先阐明了选题的背景和意义,然后在对国内外相关研究文献进行回顾和评价的基础上,针对江西省的实际情况,构建本文研究的方法与基本框架。
第二部分,增值税转型的基本理论分析。在综合前人对增值税转型研究的基础上,介绍增值税的概念、相关理论,为全文作好理论铺垫。然后从分析增值税的类型入手,对三种增值税的经济效应进行比较,分别从基本定义的静态角度、经济运行的动态角度以及财务角度展开比较三种增值税的经济效应。同时,介绍了国内外增值税制度的变迁历程及原因,并总结了增值税转型在我国呈现出的特点。
第三部分,增值税转型对江西财政的预期效应。采用定量和定性相结合的方法,从转型对江西财政收入的直接影响和间接影响两方面进行分析。借助大量的数据,通过测算转型对增值税、城市维护建设税、教育费附加和企业所得税影响,定量地说明转型对江西财政收入的直接效应。结合微观和宏观角度,分别从企业投资、技术进步、居民消费、政府投资等方面来说明转型将对江西财政收入所产生的间接效应。
第四部分,增值税转型对江西经济的预期效应。分别从转型对企业税收负担、投资、产业结构的影响来分析转型将给江西带来的经济效应。在企业税收负担方面,分别对各行业、各生命周期企业税收负担进行测算和阐述。在投资方面,以宏观和微观相结合为基础来分析。宏观角度,分析转型对企业投资总水平的影响,主要是通过转型对营业现金流、投资利润率等测算来说明;微观角度,以江西上市公司的数据构建回归模型,比较转型对不同资本构成企业投资的影响。产业结构方面,从产业产出角度出发,通过要素产出弹性及产品价格弹性因素对最终产出的作用机制,建立宏观计量经济模型,实证分析转型将对江西产业结构产生的效应。
第五部分,增值税转型可能存在的负面效应及应对措施。结合前文分析说明增值税转型对江西可能产生的负面影响,如江西以农业为主的传统产业构成,难以享受到增值税转型带来的优惠;不利于第三产业的发展;对交通运输等瓶颈产业对经济的发展的制约会更加趋紧;“投资软约束”会降低增值税转型的效果等,并提出一系列对策和建议。
本文认为,增值税转型在全国推广不会给江西财政收入带来很大压力。通过数据测算,得出增值税的自然增长可以抵消转型所造成的财政收入减少,而且自2013年起,财政将增收6.69亿元。从长期来看,增值税转型有利于财政收入的增加,会对财政收入产生长期的、有利的影响。从税收负担方面看,增值税转型政策的实施降低了企业的实际税率,且设备、工器具类固定资产投资额越大,降低的幅度越大。对于江西工业企业和商品流通企业来说,增值税转型更能降低江西工业企业税负,尤其是降低江西电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业的税负。从投资方面看,增值税转型会在一定程度上刺激江西投资,为企业在使用资金方面获得了可贵的时间价值,增加了企业可支配的投入资本额,促进企业投资的增长,也提高社会投资总量。从产业结构方面看,实行增值税转型以后受益最大的是第二产业。由此,政府和企业应当对转型政策有一个清醒的认识,根据自身的情况应对转型政策。
As China economic development, it has exposed many contradictions and problems since the start of production-type value-added tax (VAT) in 1994. It also played negative effect in fixed assets investment. So tax transformation is imperative. We carry out the reform of VAT type's transition in northeast provinces in 2004 and central provinces in 2007. Since January 1, 2009, VAT transformation implements across the country (regardless of region and industry).The overall transformation will bring inevitable effect on financial income, industrial structure and economic structure in various regions, Jiangxi as one of the central provinces is also no exception. This paper combines with qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, bases on principles of equity and efficiency according to the tax studies, uses methods and theories of economics and investment, through large amounts of data, constructs the relevant model to actively explore the impact of Jiangxi finance and economy in VAT transformation.
This paper is divided into five parts:
The first part is preamble. This part explains background and significance of this thesis, and then reviews literature at home and abroad. According to the actual conditions of Jiangxi, builds method and framework for this paper.
The second part is basic theories Analysis of value-added tax transformation. This part based on the VAT transformation study of our predecessors, introduces the concept of VAT, related theories, to make theoretical groundwork for full-text. Then starting from analyzing the types of VAT, economic effects of three kinds of VAT are compared, respectively from the static view of basic definition, the dynamic view of the economy and the financial view. Meanwhile, the domestic and foreign process of VAT system and reasons for the changes are introduced, also, characteristics of VAT transformation in China are summarized.
The third part is the expected effect on finance by VAT transformation in Jiangxi.Combining quantitative and qualitative methods, from direct and indirect two aspects, transformation effects on fiscal revenue in Jiangxi are analyzed. With large amounts of data, by measuring transformation impact of VAT, urban maintenance and construction tax, corporate income tax surcharge for education, quantitatively describe the transformation on direct effects of fiscal revenue in Jiangxi. Combination of micro and macro point of view, respectively, from business investment, technological progress, consumption, government investment to illustrate the transformation on indirect effects of fiscal revenue in Jiangxi.
The forth Part is the expected effects on economy by VAT transformation in Jiangxi. Respectively from the tax burden for businesses, investment and industrial structure, the impact of the transformation are analyzed. In the corporate tax burden, respectively, from various industries and life-cycle, measures and elaborates tax burden for businesses. In investment, combining with macro and micro as basis are used. Transformation impact on business investment overall are calculated and described in macro perspective, primarily through real tax burden of enterprises, the operating cash flow and the profit investment ratio. Using the data of listed companies in Jiangxi to build the regression model, transformation effects on enterprise investment among different capital formation are compared in micro perspective. In Industrial structure, starting from the industry output, through the role of factor output elasticity and product price elasticity on the final output mechanism; macro-econometric models are established to empirically analyze transformation effect on industrial structure in Jiangxi.
The fifth part is imaginable negative effects by VAT transformation and countermeasures. This part illuminates that VAT transformation would bring some negative impact in Jiangxi, such as agriculture-based traditional industries composition is difficult to enjoy the benefits; development of tertiary industry is hard; developments of transport and other bottlenecks industry are even more tight; 'soft investment constraints' can reduce the effect, and then puts forward series of measures and proposals.
This paper argues that VAT transformation across the country will not bring great pressure on revenue in Jiangxi. Through the data, natural growth of VAT would offset reduction of fiscal revenues by transformation, and since 2013, the finance will increase 669 million. In the long term, VAT transformation is conducive to the increase in fiscal revenue. Fiscal revenues will have long-term, beneficial impact. For the tax burden perspective, implementation of policy would reduce the effective tax rate of enterprises, and the more fixed asset investment, the greater the reduction in amplitude. For industrial enterprises and commercial enterprises in Jiangxi, the VAT transformation will reduce more tax burden in industrial enterprises, particularly electric power, gas and water production and supply industry. For investment perspective, VAT transformation will stimulate investment in a certain extent in Jiangxi, will provide valuable time value in using funds for enterprises, will increase controllable invested capital for enterprises promote the growth of business investment, and also will increase the total social investment volume. For the industrial, implementation of policy most benefits the second industry. As a result, government and businesses should have a sober understanding in policy; according to their situation make right response to transition policies.
引文
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[23]于铁铭,高愈湘,张金鑫.行业生命周期与并购类型-中国公司控制权市场效率的检验[J].北京交通大学学报(社科版).2004(4)
[24]赵蒲,孙爱英.资本结构与产业生命周期:基于中国上市公司的实证研究[J]. 管理工程学报,2005(3)
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[26]江西省统计局.江西统计年鉴[M].中国统计出版社.1985-2008
[27]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].中国统计出版社.2008
[28]罗莹,吴罗发.加快江西产业结构优化升级的思考[J].江西农业学报.2008(20)
[29]陈佳贵.关于企业生命周期与企业蜕变的探讨[J].中国工业经济.1995(11)
[30]李苏娅.增值税转型对企业税负及固定资产投资的影响研究[D].重庆大学.2006
[31]刘军,郭庆旺.世界性税制改革理论与实践研究[M].中国人民大学出版社.2001
[32]娄红,柳建光.增值税转型对我国经济增长及产业结构的影响问题研究[J].财政研究.2009(3)
[33]任国瑞.增值税转型及其对安徽经济的影响[J].科技咨询导报.2007(2)
[34]王文博.计量经济学[M].西安交通大学出版社.2004
[35]中国注册会计师协会.财务成本管理[M].经济科学出版社.2008
[36]中国注册会计师协会.税法[M].经济科学出版社.2008
[37]张阳.我国增值税转型的影响效应分析[J].改革与战略.2008(6)
[38]理查德·M·伯德,米卡尔·卡萨内格拉·德·韩舍尔.发展中国家税制改革[M].中国金融出版社.1994
[39]Wanhill,S.VAT rates and the UK tourism and leisure industry[J].Tourism Economics.1995
[40]Jensen.Thomas C,Wanhill.Stephen,Tourism's taxing times value added tax in Europe and Denmark[J].Tourism Management.2002(23)
[41]Zimmerman J.Taxes and firm size[M].Journal of Accounting and Economics 5.1983
[42]Kern B.M Morris.Taxes and firm size:the effects of tax Iegislation during the 1980s[J].The Journal of the American Taxation Association.1992
[43]Govinda Rao M.The political economy of federalism in India[M].New Delhi:Oxford University Press.2005.
[44]Sujjapongse,Somchai.Tax policy and reform in Asian countries Thailand's perspective[J].Journal of Asian Economics.2005(16)
[45]Mclure,C.E.The value-added tax,key to deficit reduction,American enterprise institute for public policy research [M].Washington, D.C.1987
[46] Clinton R Shiells.VAT design and energy trade: the case of Russia and Ukraine[R]. IMF Staff Papers .2005(52)
[47] Nichele, Veronique, Robin, Jean-Marc. Simulation of indirect tax reforms using pooled micro and macro French data [J] Journal of Public Economics. 1995 (56)
[48] Emran, M.Shahe, Stiglitz, Joseph E. On Selective Indirect Tax Reform in Developing Countries [J]. Journal of Public Economics. 2005(89)
[49] Casanegra de Jantscher, Milka, Gillis etal. Value added taxation in developing countries[R] .World Bank. 1990
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[51] GlennP.Jenkins and Chun-YanKuo.A VAT Revenue Simulation Model for Tax Reformin Developing Countries [J] .World Development/April 2000(28)
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[2]李文.产业结构税收政策研究[M].山东人民出版社.2007
[1]桂庆.当前我国增值税税转型问题研究[D].南京林业大学.2008
[1]M.Gillis,C.S.Shoup,G.PSicat.Value Added Taxation in Developing Countries[R].World Bank symposium.Year:1990.
[1]马菊红.生产型、消费型、收入型增值税的对比研究[[J].内蒙古煤炭经济,2001(6).
[1]王琼.增值税转型的经济效应研究[D].北京交通大学.2008
[2]杨桂珍.我国增值税转型问题研究[D].江苏大学.2005
[1]陆炜,杨震.中国增值税转型可行性实证分析[J].税务研究.2000(9).
[2]杨桂珍.我国增值税转型问题研究[D].江苏大学.2005
[1]杨桂珍.我国增值税转型问题研究[D].江苏大学.2005
[1]桂庆.当前我国增值税税转型问题研究[D].南京林业大学.2008
[1]刘佐.我国增值税制度的建立与发展[J].中国税务.2004(7)
[1]杨震.中国增值税转型经济影响的实证研究[M].中国财政经济出版社2005
[2]王琼.增值税转型的经济效应研究[D].北京交通大学.2008
[1]杨震.中国增值税转型经济影响的实证研究[M].中国财政经济出版社.2005
[1]杨震.中国增值税转型经济影响的实证研究[M].中国财政经济出版.2005
[1]数据来源:根据江西统计年鉴(2008)整理
[2]数据来源:根据江西统计年鉴(2008)整理
[3]罗莹,吴罗发.加快江西产业结构优化升级的思考[J].江西农业学报.2008
[1]数据来源:根据江西统计年鉴(2008)整理
[2]丁明强,蓝常高.增值税转型的社会经济效应分析[J].涉外税务2006
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[8]李文.产业结构税收政策研究[M].山东人民出版社.2007
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[16]桂庆.当前我国增值税税转型问题研究[D].南京林业大学.2008
[17]马菊红.生产型、消费型、收入型增值税的对比研究[J].内蒙古煤炭经济.2001(6)
[18]陆炜,杨震.中国增值税转型可行性实证分析[J].税务研究.2000(9)
[19]杨桂珍.我国增值税转型问题研究[D].江苏大学.2005
[20]刘佐.我国增值税制度的建立与发展[J].中国税务.2004(7)
[21]王琼.增值税转型的经济效应研究[D].北京交通大学.2008
[22]范从来,袁静.成长性、成熟性和衰退性产业上市公司并购绩效的实证分析[J].中国产业经济,2002(8)
[23]于铁铭,高愈湘,张金鑫.行业生命周期与并购类型-中国公司控制权市场效率的检验[J].北京交通大学学报(社科版).2004(4)
[24]赵蒲,孙爱英.资本结构与产业生命周期:基于中国上市公司的实证研究[J]. 管理工程学报,2005(3)
[25]张晓强.中国高新技术产业发展年鉴(2007)[M].北京理工大学出版社,2007
[26]江西省统计局.江西统计年鉴[M].中国统计出版社.1985-2008
[27]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].中国统计出版社.2008
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[29]陈佳贵.关于企业生命周期与企业蜕变的探讨[J].中国工业经济.1995(11)
[30]李苏娅.增值税转型对企业税负及固定资产投资的影响研究[D].重庆大学.2006
[31]刘军,郭庆旺.世界性税制改革理论与实践研究[M].中国人民大学出版社.2001
[32]娄红,柳建光.增值税转型对我国经济增长及产业结构的影响问题研究[J].财政研究.2009(3)
[33]任国瑞.增值税转型及其对安徽经济的影响[J].科技咨询导报.2007(2)
[34]王文博.计量经济学[M].西安交通大学出版社.2004
[35]中国注册会计师协会.财务成本管理[M].经济科学出版社.2008
[36]中国注册会计师协会.税法[M].经济科学出版社.2008
[37]张阳.我国增值税转型的影响效应分析[J].改革与战略.2008(6)
[38]理查德·M·伯德,米卡尔·卡萨内格拉·德·韩舍尔.发展中国家税制改革[M].中国金融出版社.1994
[39]Wanhill,S.VAT rates and the UK tourism and leisure industry[J].Tourism Economics.1995
[40]Jensen.Thomas C,Wanhill.Stephen,Tourism's taxing times value added tax in Europe and Denmark[J].Tourism Management.2002(23)
[41]Zimmerman J.Taxes and firm size[M].Journal of Accounting and Economics 5.1983
[42]Kern B.M Morris.Taxes and firm size:the effects of tax Iegislation during the 1980s[J].The Journal of the American Taxation Association.1992
[43]Govinda Rao M.The political economy of federalism in India[M].New Delhi:Oxford University Press.2005.
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[45]Mclure,C.E.The value-added tax,key to deficit reduction,American enterprise institute for public policy research [M].Washington, D.C.1987
[46] Clinton R Shiells.VAT design and energy trade: the case of Russia and Ukraine[R]. IMF Staff Papers .2005(52)
[47] Nichele, Veronique, Robin, Jean-Marc. Simulation of indirect tax reforms using pooled micro and macro French data [J] Journal of Public Economics. 1995 (56)
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[49] Casanegra de Jantscher, Milka, Gillis etal. Value added taxation in developing countries[R] .World Bank. 1990
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[52] Commins. J.G, Hassett.K.A, Hubbard.R.GTax Reforms and Investment: A Cross-Country Comparison. Working Papers of C.V.Starr Center for Applied Economics [R] .New York University. 1995
[53] M.GiIIis, C.S.Shoup, GPSicat.Value Added Taxation in Developing Countries[R] .World Bank symposium. Year: 1990