宏观调控效应的汇率制度分析
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摘要
提高宏观调控效应和进一步完善人民币汇率形成机制是我国经济生活中的两大热点问题。这两大热点问题不是孤立存在的,他们有着内在的、千丝万缕的联系。从我国经济发展和改革的实践看,提高我国宏观调控效应应当成为进一步完善人民币汇率形成机制的重要目标之一;不断完善人民币汇率形成机制可以有效提高我国宏观调控的政策效应。
从2002年开始我国经济增长进入快车道,2003-2005年GDP增长速度逐年攀升,分别是9%,9.5%和9.9%。这期间宏观调控措施不断,但实际情况是,经济增长速度居高不下,这种现象是我国改革开放以来的历次经济过热中所没有见过的。冷静观察不难发现,近年来,我国经济生活存在许多矛盾现象。比如,从宏观经济政策的角度看,针对投资严重膨胀、经济增长过快、通货膨胀明显等现象,应该毫不犹豫地调高利率(何况我国正处于一个低利率时期),但实际上我们却受到了人民币汇率升值以及美元低利率的钳制,难于把利率提高到足以控制固定资产投资膨胀的水平。因为调高人民币利率必然会吸引更多的国际热钱涌入中国,炒作人民币升值预期,这会给人民币带来更大的升值压力;同时,现行的结汇制又将把人民币升值的压力,通过外汇储备的增加转化为基础货币的投放压力,其结果是会进一步加大通胀的压力。这些矛盾的存在无疑限制了宏观调控政策工具(汇率工具和利率工具等)的选择,抑制了政策工具效应的发挥。深入分析我们认为,我国汇率制度与宏观调控政策这一制度安排不协调是导致上述种种矛盾产生进而降低宏观调控效应的重要根源。基于此,当前从汇率制度入手,系统研究我国宏观调控效应具有十分重要的意义。
本文提出了宏观调控效应的汇率制度分析框架。这一框架是:
(1)从汇率制度角度评价宏观调控的有效性。
(2)从汇率制度方面分析效应不好的原因。分析路径有两条:其一是要证明运行中的汇率制度是否可持续,其二是研究这种制度与宏观经济和宏观调控体系的相容性。
(3)在可持续的汇率制度环境下,研究财政货币政策的有效性及其与其他汇率制度的比较。
(4)研究基于提高宏观调控效应的增加汇率制度与经济环境相容性的路径,比如增加汇率弹性等等。
在上述研究框架下,论文开展了如下研究:
(1)从政策的协同性、汇率形成机制的设计和经济发展的平稳性等角度研究了汇率制度视域下的宏观调控效应。
(2)通过建立数学模型,严格地证明了,中间汇率制度具有存在的空间,其条件是资本流动可控。这一结果从理论上否定了汇率制度选择的“两极论”,为我国现阶段实行有管理的浮动汇率制提供了重要的理论依据。研究认为随着我国资本流动性增加,汇率弹性必须增加,中国经济的体量和开放度在不断增加,资本的流动性必然增加,因此,从长远来看,实行浮动汇率制也是必然的趋势。
(3)研究了评估汇率波动弹性空间可行性的方法,并运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解法进行了实证分析。到目前为止还没看到有相关研究成果。无论提高汇率制度本身的可持续性,还是增强其与经济环境的相容性,我国现阶段汇率形成机制的完善重点都应该是汇率弹性管理。
(4)从中间汇率制方面,拓展了著名的分析宏观调控效应的经典模型——M-F模型。包括拓展了经典M-F模型及其在利率和资本不对称流动方面的拓展模型。提出了作为实行中间汇率的我国要十分重视各种政策的搭配。因为,理论上看,固定汇率制和浮动汇率制都有政策失效的情况发生,而中间汇率制则没有,其财政货币政策的效果介于固定和浮动之间。
⑤研究了汇率形成机制作用宏观调控效应的机理。
There are two hotspots in China's economics:one is to enhance macro-control effect, and the other is to improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism.And these two hotspots have many immanent relations.From the perspective of practice of economic development and reformation in China,the first hotspot should be the significant goal of the second one.And the second hotspot is,in turn,conducive to the first one.
Since 2002,Chinese economy has greatly speeded up esp.during 2003-2005,with GDP growth rate 9%,9.5%and 9.9%respectively.In this period,macro-control being performed incessantly,in fact,economic history growth rate was rather high—that was the first economic overheating since China's reform and opening to the outside world.It's not difficult to discover that there are many inconsistencies in Chinese economy.For instance,from the perspective of macro-economic policies,in light of the phenomenon of severe investment expansion,economic overgrowth,and obvious inflation,interest rates should be raised without hesitation(for we're in a period of low interest rate). Notwithstanding,we are in shackles in the appreciation of RMB exchange rate and the low interest rate of US dollar.And thus we're not able to raise interest rates enough so as to control the expansion of fixed assets investment.For one thing,in that raising interest rates will consequentially allure more international hot money movement into China and gamble on the anticipation of RMB appreciation,which will bring more and more pressure of appreciation to RMB.For another,actual exchange clearing system will transform the pressure of appreciation to the release pressure of basic money,which will result in further increase of pressure of inflation.These inconsistencies undoubtedly restrict our choice of macro-control policies instruments(exchange rate instruments and interest rate instruments)and restrain policies instruments to take effects as well.By means of deep analysis,we deem that the incongruence between the exchange rate regime and macro-control policies results in aforementioned inconsistencies and debase macro-control efficiency.According to all these,it's of great significance to research on Chinese macro-control efficiency starting from the research of exchange rate regime.
This dissatisfaction proposes an analysis framework of the exchange rate regime based on macro-control efficiency,and the framework involves the following:
①To appraise macro-control efficiency from the perspective of the exchange rate regime;
②To analyze the cause of macro-control inefficacy from the perspective of the exchange rate regime.There are two ways:one is to demonstrate whether the ongoing exchange rate regime is sustainable;the other is to research the compatibility between this system and macroeconomics and macro-control system.
③To research the efficiency of fiscal and monetary policy,as well as its contrast with other exchange rate regimes,under the circumstances of the sustainable exchange rate regime,
④To research the path of facilitating the compatibility between exchange rate regime and economic environment,such as increasing exchange rate elasticity.
Under the aforementioned research framework,conclusions drawn from this dissertation are as follows,
(1)As a whole,Chinese macro-control efficiency is satisfactory.However it is rather bad from the perspective of the exchange rate regime.
(2)By mathematical model building,it's strictly demonstrated that the condition under which the mid exchange rate regime exists is that capital flow is controllable.This conclusion theoretically negates the "polarization Theory" on selection of the exchange rate regimes,and supplies significant theoretical supports for China to employ the managed floating exchange rate regime.We think that exchange rate elasticity must increase along with the increase of capital flow,and capital flow consequentially increases along with Chinese economic growth and further opening to the outside world. Consequently,in the long run,floating exchange rate regime is an inevitable trend.
(3)Approaches on evaluating the feasibility of exchange rate elasticity are researched, and impulse response function as well as variance decomposition are employed for empirical analysis.There're no correlative research achievements so far.Either to enhance the sustainability of the exchange rate regime itself or to swell the compatibility between it and the economic environment,exchange rate elasticity should be the emphasis of consummating RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in China nowadays. This dissertation supplies an approach for evaluating the feasibility of the extent of exchange rate elasticity adjustment.Hence,this research is of great importance.
(4)In the field of the mid exchange rate regime,the Mundell-Fleming model—a famous and classical model for analyzing macro-control effficiency—is further developed, including classical Mundell-Fleming model as well as its development within asymmetry in interest rate and capital flows.We propose that as a country that employs mid exchange rate regime,China has to attach more importance to the coordination of policies,as neither the fixed exchange rate regime nor the floating exchange rate regime may have invalidation while the mid exchange rate regime doesn't,and its efficiency of fiscal and monetary policy lies between the fixed exchange rate regime or the floating exchange rate regime.
(5)The principle of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism on macro-control efficiency is studied.
从2002年开始我国经济增长进入快车道,2003-2005年GDP增长速度逐年攀升,分别是9%,9.5%和9.9%。这期间宏观调控措施不断,但实际情况是,经济增长速度居高不下,这种现象是我国改革开放以来的历次经济过热中所没有见过的。冷静观察不难发现,近年来,我国经济生活存在许多矛盾现象。比如,从宏观经济政策的角度看,针对投资严重膨胀、经济增长过快、通货膨胀明显等现象,应该毫不犹豫地调高利率(何况我国正处于一个低利率时期),但实际上我们却受到了人民币汇率升值以及美元低利率的钳制,难于把利率提高到足以控制固定资产投资膨胀的水平。因为调高人民币利率必然会吸引更多的国际热钱涌入中国,炒作人民币升值预期,这会给人民币带来更大的升值压力;同时,现行的结汇制又将把人民币升值的压力,通过外汇储备的增加转化为基础货币的投放压力,其结果是会进一步加大通胀的压力。这些矛盾的存在无疑限制了宏观调控政策工具(汇率工具和利率工具等)的选择,抑制了政策工具效应的发挥。深入分析我们认为,我国汇率制度与宏观调控政策这一制度安排不协调是导致上述种种矛盾产生进而降低宏观调控效应的重要根源。基于此,当前从汇率制度入手,系统研究我国宏观调控效应具有十分重要的意义。
本文提出了宏观调控效应的汇率制度分析框架。这一框架是:
(1)从汇率制度角度评价宏观调控的有效性。
(2)从汇率制度方面分析效应不好的原因。分析路径有两条:其一是要证明运行中的汇率制度是否可持续,其二是研究这种制度与宏观经济和宏观调控体系的相容性。
(3)在可持续的汇率制度环境下,研究财政货币政策的有效性及其与其他汇率制度的比较。
(4)研究基于提高宏观调控效应的增加汇率制度与经济环境相容性的路径,比如增加汇率弹性等等。
在上述研究框架下,论文开展了如下研究:
(1)从政策的协同性、汇率形成机制的设计和经济发展的平稳性等角度研究了汇率制度视域下的宏观调控效应。
(2)通过建立数学模型,严格地证明了,中间汇率制度具有存在的空间,其条件是资本流动可控。这一结果从理论上否定了汇率制度选择的“两极论”,为我国现阶段实行有管理的浮动汇率制提供了重要的理论依据。研究认为随着我国资本流动性增加,汇率弹性必须增加,中国经济的体量和开放度在不断增加,资本的流动性必然增加,因此,从长远来看,实行浮动汇率制也是必然的趋势。
(3)研究了评估汇率波动弹性空间可行性的方法,并运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解法进行了实证分析。到目前为止还没看到有相关研究成果。无论提高汇率制度本身的可持续性,还是增强其与经济环境的相容性,我国现阶段汇率形成机制的完善重点都应该是汇率弹性管理。
(4)从中间汇率制方面,拓展了著名的分析宏观调控效应的经典模型——M-F模型。包括拓展了经典M-F模型及其在利率和资本不对称流动方面的拓展模型。提出了作为实行中间汇率的我国要十分重视各种政策的搭配。因为,理论上看,固定汇率制和浮动汇率制都有政策失效的情况发生,而中间汇率制则没有,其财政货币政策的效果介于固定和浮动之间。
⑤研究了汇率形成机制作用宏观调控效应的机理。
There are two hotspots in China's economics:one is to enhance macro-control effect, and the other is to improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism.And these two hotspots have many immanent relations.From the perspective of practice of economic development and reformation in China,the first hotspot should be the significant goal of the second one.And the second hotspot is,in turn,conducive to the first one.
Since 2002,Chinese economy has greatly speeded up esp.during 2003-2005,with GDP growth rate 9%,9.5%and 9.9%respectively.In this period,macro-control being performed incessantly,in fact,economic history growth rate was rather high—that was the first economic overheating since China's reform and opening to the outside world.It's not difficult to discover that there are many inconsistencies in Chinese economy.For instance,from the perspective of macro-economic policies,in light of the phenomenon of severe investment expansion,economic overgrowth,and obvious inflation,interest rates should be raised without hesitation(for we're in a period of low interest rate). Notwithstanding,we are in shackles in the appreciation of RMB exchange rate and the low interest rate of US dollar.And thus we're not able to raise interest rates enough so as to control the expansion of fixed assets investment.For one thing,in that raising interest rates will consequentially allure more international hot money movement into China and gamble on the anticipation of RMB appreciation,which will bring more and more pressure of appreciation to RMB.For another,actual exchange clearing system will transform the pressure of appreciation to the release pressure of basic money,which will result in further increase of pressure of inflation.These inconsistencies undoubtedly restrict our choice of macro-control policies instruments(exchange rate instruments and interest rate instruments)and restrain policies instruments to take effects as well.By means of deep analysis,we deem that the incongruence between the exchange rate regime and macro-control policies results in aforementioned inconsistencies and debase macro-control efficiency.According to all these,it's of great significance to research on Chinese macro-control efficiency starting from the research of exchange rate regime.
This dissatisfaction proposes an analysis framework of the exchange rate regime based on macro-control efficiency,and the framework involves the following:
①To appraise macro-control efficiency from the perspective of the exchange rate regime;
②To analyze the cause of macro-control inefficacy from the perspective of the exchange rate regime.There are two ways:one is to demonstrate whether the ongoing exchange rate regime is sustainable;the other is to research the compatibility between this system and macroeconomics and macro-control system.
③To research the efficiency of fiscal and monetary policy,as well as its contrast with other exchange rate regimes,under the circumstances of the sustainable exchange rate regime,
④To research the path of facilitating the compatibility between exchange rate regime and economic environment,such as increasing exchange rate elasticity.
Under the aforementioned research framework,conclusions drawn from this dissertation are as follows,
(1)As a whole,Chinese macro-control efficiency is satisfactory.However it is rather bad from the perspective of the exchange rate regime.
(2)By mathematical model building,it's strictly demonstrated that the condition under which the mid exchange rate regime exists is that capital flow is controllable.This conclusion theoretically negates the "polarization Theory" on selection of the exchange rate regimes,and supplies significant theoretical supports for China to employ the managed floating exchange rate regime.We think that exchange rate elasticity must increase along with the increase of capital flow,and capital flow consequentially increases along with Chinese economic growth and further opening to the outside world. Consequently,in the long run,floating exchange rate regime is an inevitable trend.
(3)Approaches on evaluating the feasibility of exchange rate elasticity are researched, and impulse response function as well as variance decomposition are employed for empirical analysis.There're no correlative research achievements so far.Either to enhance the sustainability of the exchange rate regime itself or to swell the compatibility between it and the economic environment,exchange rate elasticity should be the emphasis of consummating RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in China nowadays. This dissertation supplies an approach for evaluating the feasibility of the extent of exchange rate elasticity adjustment.Hence,this research is of great importance.
(4)In the field of the mid exchange rate regime,the Mundell-Fleming model—a famous and classical model for analyzing macro-control effficiency—is further developed, including classical Mundell-Fleming model as well as its development within asymmetry in interest rate and capital flows.We propose that as a country that employs mid exchange rate regime,China has to attach more importance to the coordination of policies,as neither the fixed exchange rate regime nor the floating exchange rate regime may have invalidation while the mid exchange rate regime doesn't,and its efficiency of fiscal and monetary policy lies between the fixed exchange rate regime or the floating exchange rate regime.
(5)The principle of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism on macro-control efficiency is studied.
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