客户生命周期价值的理论和实证研究
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摘要
如果时间倒流20年,那么这篇文章可能会被嗤之以鼻,因为在那个物资供给并不丰裕的年代,整个中国市场就像一片等待开垦的处女地,往往新客户的主动投怀送抱就已经让供给者们赚得盆满钵满。即使在竞争相对激烈的纺织行业,获取新客户的成本也要远远低于如今。当时的供给者们可能更多的想的是如何大块朵颐地开发新客户、如何占领市场份额,而不是花代价留住客户。但是时间能够倒流吗?不能。所以我们必须面对现在这个群雄争霸、优胜劣汰的残酷竞争市场,在限定的条件下最优化客户管理,最大化客户价值。
客户价值是企业价值的源泉和关键衡量指标,而从客户关系管理(CRM)的角度看,客户价值主要源于新客户的获取和老客户的保持。对于那些老客户,应该保持哪些人以及如何保留住他们,这是客户价值最大化过程中我们最关心的问题。本文沿着客户保持这条主线展开,完善了客户生命周期价值的概念架构,并将客户生命周期价值解释为客户需求潜力和客户忠诚度的函数,进而构建了基于历史面板数据的客户潜在价值模型。随后,在理论研究的基础上,结合国内某保险公司电话销售中心续保记录数据,对其客户潜在价值做了实证应用,并基于此给出了相应的营销策略建议。事实证明,在适当的客户保持策略作用下,续保成功率和客户价值都分别得到了一定程度的提升。
在文章最末的“展望”中,笔者提出了关于“最优化”和“边界约束”的观点,指出“边界约束”即使没有比“最优化”更重要,至少也一样重要,应得到企业的一致重视。
If we turned the clock back 20 years, this paper might be nothing. Because in those years characterized by insufficient supply when the whole market in China was just like a virgin land waiting for exploration, a great initiative demand from the new customers was enough to stick to the suppliers’rib. Even in the relatively competitive textile industry, the acquisition cost of new customers is far more moderate. The suppliers could pay more attention to new markets and market share, rather than spend in customer retention. Then, could time flow backwards? Of course not. So, enterprises are forced to face up to the extremely competitive market today, and make effort to optimize customer management and maximize customer value.
Customer value, as a source and a key measurement of the corporate value, comes mainly from customer acquisition and customer retention under the angle of CRM. What we most concern in the course of customer value maximization is who should be retained and how to hold them. Along the main line of customer retention, this paper perfects the conceptual framework of Customer Lifetime Value (CLV), which is explained with two factors, Customer Demand Potential and Customer Loyalty. Furthermore, a Customer Potential Value (CPV) model is built based on panel data. After the theoretical study, this paper analyzes a real-world case of customer potential value assessment with the use of renewal data from the call center of a certain securities company, and some marketing strategy suggestions are derived from the data mining results. It is proved that both the renewal rate and customer value are upgraded in some degree with the aid of appropriate customer retention strategy.
The“Expectation”in the last part of the paper addresses a further view of“optimization”and“constraint”that even if“constraint”is not more important than“optimization”, it should have the same importance and be treated equally without discrimination.
客户价值是企业价值的源泉和关键衡量指标,而从客户关系管理(CRM)的角度看,客户价值主要源于新客户的获取和老客户的保持。对于那些老客户,应该保持哪些人以及如何保留住他们,这是客户价值最大化过程中我们最关心的问题。本文沿着客户保持这条主线展开,完善了客户生命周期价值的概念架构,并将客户生命周期价值解释为客户需求潜力和客户忠诚度的函数,进而构建了基于历史面板数据的客户潜在价值模型。随后,在理论研究的基础上,结合国内某保险公司电话销售中心续保记录数据,对其客户潜在价值做了实证应用,并基于此给出了相应的营销策略建议。事实证明,在适当的客户保持策略作用下,续保成功率和客户价值都分别得到了一定程度的提升。
在文章最末的“展望”中,笔者提出了关于“最优化”和“边界约束”的观点,指出“边界约束”即使没有比“最优化”更重要,至少也一样重要,应得到企业的一致重视。
If we turned the clock back 20 years, this paper might be nothing. Because in those years characterized by insufficient supply when the whole market in China was just like a virgin land waiting for exploration, a great initiative demand from the new customers was enough to stick to the suppliers’rib. Even in the relatively competitive textile industry, the acquisition cost of new customers is far more moderate. The suppliers could pay more attention to new markets and market share, rather than spend in customer retention. Then, could time flow backwards? Of course not. So, enterprises are forced to face up to the extremely competitive market today, and make effort to optimize customer management and maximize customer value.
Customer value, as a source and a key measurement of the corporate value, comes mainly from customer acquisition and customer retention under the angle of CRM. What we most concern in the course of customer value maximization is who should be retained and how to hold them. Along the main line of customer retention, this paper perfects the conceptual framework of Customer Lifetime Value (CLV), which is explained with two factors, Customer Demand Potential and Customer Loyalty. Furthermore, a Customer Potential Value (CPV) model is built based on panel data. After the theoretical study, this paper analyzes a real-world case of customer potential value assessment with the use of renewal data from the call center of a certain securities company, and some marketing strategy suggestions are derived from the data mining results. It is proved that both the renewal rate and customer value are upgraded in some degree with the aid of appropriate customer retention strategy.
The“Expectation”in the last part of the paper addresses a further view of“optimization”and“constraint”that even if“constraint”is not more important than“optimization”, it should have the same importance and be treated equally without discrimination.
引文
[1] FF Reichheld, WE Sasser Jr. Zero Defections: Quality Comes to Services [J]. Harv Bus Rev, 1990 Sep-Oct, 68(5):105-111.
[2] 胡丁, 陈德慧, 等. 保险业的客户忠诚及其影响因素分析[J]. 科学与管理, 2004, (1): 100-102.
[3] 百度百科. 市场营销[EB/OL]. http://baike.baidu.com/view/9683.htm.
[4] LL Berry. Relationship Marketing of Services--Growing Interest, Emerging Perspectives[J]. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 1995, 23(4): 236-245.
[5] 张国方, 金国栋. CRM(客户关系管理)的应用与理论研究综述[J]. 科技进步与对策, 2003, 20(3): 176-179.
[6] 冯根尧. 从 CRM 到 CEM. 现代管理科学, 2004, (10): 26-28.
[7] 胡旺盛, 等. 顾客价值与营销创新[M]. 合肥工业大小出版社, 2006.
[8] 菲利普·科特勒, 洪瑞云, 梁绍明, 等. 市场营销管理[M]. 北京: 中国人民大学出版社, 1997.
[9] VA Zeithaml. Consumer Perceptions of Price, Quality, and Value: A Means-End Model and Synthesis of Evidence[J]. Journal of Marketing, 1988, 52(July): 2-22.
[10] E Naumann. Creating Customer Value: The Path to Sustainable Competitive Advantage[M]. Cincinnati, Thomson Executive Press, 1995.
[11] DT Wilson, S Jantrania. Understanding the value of a relationship[J]. Asia-Australia Marketing Journal, 1994, 2(1): 55-66.
[12] C Gr?nroos. Value-Driven Relationship Marketing: From Products to Resources and Competencies[J]. Journal of Marketing Management, 1997, 13(5): 407-419.
[13] R Courtheoux. Customer Retention: How Much to Invest. Research and the Customer Lifecycle. DMA, 1995.
[14] Roberts, M. L., Berger, P. D. Direct Marketing Management. Prentice-Hall: Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1989.
[15] Jackson,D. R. Strategic Application of Customer Lifetime Value in the Direct Marketing Environment[J]. Journal of Targeting Measurement and Analysis for Marketing, 1994, 3(1):9-17.
[16] F. Robert Dwyer. Customer lifetime valuation to support marketing decision making[J]. Journal of Direct Marketing, 1989, 8(2): 73-81.
[17] F. Robert Dwyer. Customer lifetime valuation to support marketing decision making[J]. Journal of Direct Marketing, 1997, 11(4): 6-13.
[18] PD Berger, NI Nasr. Customer lifetime value: Marketing models and applications[J]. Journal of Interactive Marketing, 1998,12(1): 17-30.
[19] AG Woodside, RJ Trappey. Customer Portfolio Analysis among Competing Retail Stores [J]. Journal of Business Research, 1999, 35: 189-200.
[20] BD Kim, SO Kim. Measuring up-selling potential of life insurance customers: application of a stochastic frontier model[J]. Journal of Interactive Marketing, 1999, 13(4): 2-9.
[21] PC Verhoef, B Donkers. Predicting customer potential value an application in the insurance industry[J]. Decision Support Systems, 2001, 32: 189-199.
[22] WJ Reinartz, V Kumar. The Impact of Customer Relationship Characteristics on Profitable Lifetime Duration[J]. Journal of Marketing, 2003, 67(1): 77-99.
[23] S Gupta, D Hanssens, B Hardie, W Kahn, V Kumar, N Lin, N Ravishanker, S Sriram. Modeling Customer Lifetime Value. Journal of Service Research, 2006, 9(2): 139-155.
[24] 陈明亮,李怀祖. 客户价值细分与保持策略研究[J]. 现代生产与管理技术, 2001, 18(4): 23-27.
[25] 陈明亮. 客户全生命周期利润预测方法的研究[J]. 科研管理, 2003, 24(4): 103-109.
[26] Yoo, Shijin and Dominique M. Hanssens. Modeling the Sales and Customer Equity Effects of the Marketing Mix[Z]. working paper, University of California, Los Angeles, Anderson School of Management, 2005.
[27] Reichheld, F., & Teal, T. The Loyalty Effect[M]. Boston: Business Scholl Press, 1996.
[28] RC Blattberg, G Getz, JS Thomas. Customer Equity: Building and Managing Relationships as Valuable Assets[M]. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2001.
[29] RT Rust, Katherine Lemon, Valarie Zeithaml. Return on Marketing: Using Customer Equity to Focus Marketing Strategy. Journal of Marketing[J], 2004, 68 (1), 109-26.
[30] L Oliver Richard. Whence consumer loyalty?[J] Journal of Marketing, 1999, 63: 33-44.
[31] 陈明亮. 客户忠诚与客户关系生命周期[J]. 管理工程学报, 2003, 17(2): 90-93.
[32] Hsiao, Cheng. Analysis of Panel Data[M]. New York Cambridge University Press, 2003.
[33] 百度百科. 数据挖掘[EB/OL]. http://baike.baidu.com/view/7893.htm.
[34] D Hand, H Mannila, P Smyth 著, 张银奎等译. 数据挖掘原理[M]. 北京: 机械工业出版社, 2003.
[35] JS Gordon, 祁斌译. 伟大的博弈[M]. 北京: 中信出版社, 2005.
[2] 胡丁, 陈德慧, 等. 保险业的客户忠诚及其影响因素分析[J]. 科学与管理, 2004, (1): 100-102.
[3] 百度百科. 市场营销[EB/OL]. http://baike.baidu.com/view/9683.htm.
[4] LL Berry. Relationship Marketing of Services--Growing Interest, Emerging Perspectives[J]. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 1995, 23(4): 236-245.
[5] 张国方, 金国栋. CRM(客户关系管理)的应用与理论研究综述[J]. 科技进步与对策, 2003, 20(3): 176-179.
[6] 冯根尧. 从 CRM 到 CEM. 现代管理科学, 2004, (10): 26-28.
[7] 胡旺盛, 等. 顾客价值与营销创新[M]. 合肥工业大小出版社, 2006.
[8] 菲利普·科特勒, 洪瑞云, 梁绍明, 等. 市场营销管理[M]. 北京: 中国人民大学出版社, 1997.
[9] VA Zeithaml. Consumer Perceptions of Price, Quality, and Value: A Means-End Model and Synthesis of Evidence[J]. Journal of Marketing, 1988, 52(July): 2-22.
[10] E Naumann. Creating Customer Value: The Path to Sustainable Competitive Advantage[M]. Cincinnati, Thomson Executive Press, 1995.
[11] DT Wilson, S Jantrania. Understanding the value of a relationship[J]. Asia-Australia Marketing Journal, 1994, 2(1): 55-66.
[12] C Gr?nroos. Value-Driven Relationship Marketing: From Products to Resources and Competencies[J]. Journal of Marketing Management, 1997, 13(5): 407-419.
[13] R Courtheoux. Customer Retention: How Much to Invest. Research and the Customer Lifecycle. DMA, 1995.
[14] Roberts, M. L., Berger, P. D. Direct Marketing Management. Prentice-Hall: Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1989.
[15] Jackson,D. R. Strategic Application of Customer Lifetime Value in the Direct Marketing Environment[J]. Journal of Targeting Measurement and Analysis for Marketing, 1994, 3(1):9-17.
[16] F. Robert Dwyer. Customer lifetime valuation to support marketing decision making[J]. Journal of Direct Marketing, 1989, 8(2): 73-81.
[17] F. Robert Dwyer. Customer lifetime valuation to support marketing decision making[J]. Journal of Direct Marketing, 1997, 11(4): 6-13.
[18] PD Berger, NI Nasr. Customer lifetime value: Marketing models and applications[J]. Journal of Interactive Marketing, 1998,12(1): 17-30.
[19] AG Woodside, RJ Trappey. Customer Portfolio Analysis among Competing Retail Stores [J]. Journal of Business Research, 1999, 35: 189-200.
[20] BD Kim, SO Kim. Measuring up-selling potential of life insurance customers: application of a stochastic frontier model[J]. Journal of Interactive Marketing, 1999, 13(4): 2-9.
[21] PC Verhoef, B Donkers. Predicting customer potential value an application in the insurance industry[J]. Decision Support Systems, 2001, 32: 189-199.
[22] WJ Reinartz, V Kumar. The Impact of Customer Relationship Characteristics on Profitable Lifetime Duration[J]. Journal of Marketing, 2003, 67(1): 77-99.
[23] S Gupta, D Hanssens, B Hardie, W Kahn, V Kumar, N Lin, N Ravishanker, S Sriram. Modeling Customer Lifetime Value. Journal of Service Research, 2006, 9(2): 139-155.
[24] 陈明亮,李怀祖. 客户价值细分与保持策略研究[J]. 现代生产与管理技术, 2001, 18(4): 23-27.
[25] 陈明亮. 客户全生命周期利润预测方法的研究[J]. 科研管理, 2003, 24(4): 103-109.
[26] Yoo, Shijin and Dominique M. Hanssens. Modeling the Sales and Customer Equity Effects of the Marketing Mix[Z]. working paper, University of California, Los Angeles, Anderson School of Management, 2005.
[27] Reichheld, F., & Teal, T. The Loyalty Effect[M]. Boston: Business Scholl Press, 1996.
[28] RC Blattberg, G Getz, JS Thomas. Customer Equity: Building and Managing Relationships as Valuable Assets[M]. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2001.
[29] RT Rust, Katherine Lemon, Valarie Zeithaml. Return on Marketing: Using Customer Equity to Focus Marketing Strategy. Journal of Marketing[J], 2004, 68 (1), 109-26.
[30] L Oliver Richard. Whence consumer loyalty?[J] Journal of Marketing, 1999, 63: 33-44.
[31] 陈明亮. 客户忠诚与客户关系生命周期[J]. 管理工程学报, 2003, 17(2): 90-93.
[32] Hsiao, Cheng. Analysis of Panel Data[M]. New York Cambridge University Press, 2003.
[33] 百度百科. 数据挖掘[EB/OL]. http://baike.baidu.com/view/7893.htm.
[34] D Hand, H Mannila, P Smyth 著, 张银奎等译. 数据挖掘原理[M]. 北京: 机械工业出版社, 2003.
[35] JS Gordon, 祁斌译. 伟大的博弈[M]. 北京: 中信出版社, 2005.