基于需求预测的机型指派和评价研究
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摘要
中国当前的航空运输产业,从外部市场环境来看,机会与威胁并存。首先,中国经济的发展加大了国内地区之间及国际间的商业往来。虽然这种日益紧密的商业交流给航空产业带来了大量的客流,但是国外的航空公司也通过各种途径参与竞争,想从中国的航空市场中分得一杯羹。其次,随着中国产业结构的调整,旅游产业作为一种绿色产业,逐步被各级地方政府所重视,由此也带来了大量的旅客流,给航空运输业带来了发展的契机。但是,各种地面交通产业也通过提速、布网积极参与,毫不退让。再次,虽然中国高速发展的航空产业基础设施建设和飞机的研发工作给航空产业提供了强有力的支持,但是,航空公司本来就过剩的运力造成运营成本过高,竞争乏力。
面对这种局面,国内航空公司只有开源节流,即在运输市场上积极拓展客源,在航空管理上进行精益管理。机型指派作为航空公司航班生产运作过程中的核心环节,是航空公司有效控制运营成本,进行精益管理的关键。根据航空公司的客流总量、市场份额、旅客需求和飞机本身技术特点进行科学的机型指派,对提升航空公司的竞争力有现实的意义。
本文综合航空公司机型指派过程中市场需求预测,优化仿真和机型评价三个紧密关联的管理环节,对航空公司航班计划制作过程的重要环节进行分析研究。
市场需求预测从航线客流总量、航空公司在航线上所占市场份额、航班旅客需求,分三个层次对航空公司的市场需求进行了预测,给出了具体的预测方法。在研究过程中,借助支持向量机技术对某一航线上的旅客需求总量进行了预测。在需求总量预测基础上,借助改进后的层次分析法对不同航空公司的竞争能力进行了评价,从而对各个航空公司所能占领的市场份额进行了预测。航空公司在估算了自己在某条航线上的市场份额后,要将这些需求科学合理地分配到各个航班上,这要求各个航空公司根据每个航班的旅客需求分布特点,兼顾航班溢出和再捕获现象,对每个航班的需求进行精细的计算,将收益最大化。这部分的研究主要是给接下来的机型指派研究奠定基础。没有准确的需求预测,就不可能有科学的机型指派。
机型指派是航空公司在科学的旅客需求预测基础上,在现有航线网络和航空公司机队资源条件下,根据飞机可用性、舱位数、运营成本以及潜在收益等,将具有不同舱位容量和舱位结构的飞机指派给不同航线和航班,最终达到收益最大化或成本最小化的过程。机型指派要综合考虑许多方面,诸如航班旅客需求预测、机组资源的分配及飞机维护等。在数学建模和实际的编程计算过程中,遇到许多障碍。本文借助仿真软件,对综合考虑维修因素的飞机指派模型进行了建模求解,提出了一种新的解决机型指派综合问题的思路。
在航空市场需求预测的基础上,借助数学模型进行机型指派优化只是立足于经济性分析,要使最后的机型指派方案具有可行性,还需要结合飞机本身的一些技术指标和所飞航班的具体情况进行分析。本文运用数据包络分析法,综合飞机的技术参数和经济性参数,对三种不同机型在不同航班上的适应性进行了分析,给出了兼顾经济性和可行性的机型分配方案。
通过本文的研究,在理论上给出了系统的航空需求预测方法,提出了一种通过仿真画面展示飞机指派过程的新思路。通过数据包络分析法,将机型指派模型的优化结果进行了进一步的评价研究。本文研究也具有现实的意义,科学的市场需求预测和机型指派为航空公司进行精细管理提供了依据,优化仿真和进行机型评价为航空公司在规避经济风险和保障飞行安全方面提供了一种便捷的工具。
There are opportunities and threats in the current air transport industry in China from the external market environment. First of all, the domestic and international business transactions have been increasing with the China's economic development. Although this increasingly commercial exchanges have brought a lot of passengers to the aviation industry, the foreign airlines are joining the competition through a variety of ways aiming to capture a slice of China's aviation market. Second, with China's industrial restructuring, tourism industry, as an emerging green industry, has been paid more attention to it by local governments gradually,thus bringing a number of tourists.However, a variety of ground transportation industry is also competing through speeding up the distribution network. Third, although the rapid development of China's aviation industry has provided strong support, the competition of airlines are still weak because of high operating costs caused by the overcapacity.
Faced with this critical situation, what the domestic airlines can do is only to cut down the operation costs and to expand the customer in the transportation market, that is to implement the Lean Management.As the core of effective control of operating costs for airlines,the fleet assignment is the key to carry out the lean management.According to the airline passenger flowing volume, market share, passenger demand and aircraft technical features to carry out the scientific fleet assignment is an effective way to enhance the competition of airlines.
Three closely related aspects in the process of the airline’s operation have been conducted in this paper, that is market forecasting, fleet assignment and aircraft evaluation.
First, from the three levels, that is the total quantity of route passenger flow, the market share airline occupied and the flight passenger, this paper put forward to the market demand forecast of Airline and gave the concrete forecast techniques correspondingly. In the process of research, the total passenger demand forecast of some routes has been carried on with the aid of the support vector machines technology. Based on the improved analytic hierarchy process,the appraisal of the different Airline's competitive ability and the corresponding market share have been carried on. After the route's market share was estimated, the market share that the airline occupied should be distributed to each flight reasonably according to the passenger demand distribution characteristic of each flight
The airlines try to get the great benefits through pay more attention to the phenomenon of the fine computation to each flight’s demand, flight overflow and recapture. The research of this part lays the foundation for the following fleet assignment research. There is no scientific fleet assignment without accurate demand prediction.
Based on existing route network and airline fleet resources, fleet assignment is to distribute different aircrafts to the appropriate flights according to aircraft availability, class capacity, operating costs and potential benefits to achieve revenue maximization and minization of the cost ultimately. There are many aspects should be considered, such as traffic forecasts, crew resource allocation and aircraft maintenance. In the process of mathematical model establishment and programming, many obstacles were encountered. Using the simulation software, the author considered the maintenance factors of the integrated model and put forward to a new solution to the assignment of an integrated fleet assignment model.
Based on the aviation market demand forecast, the mathematical optimized results is only an economic analysis. It is necessary to make a synthetic evaluation and consider a number of technical indicators and the flight specific situations.Using data envelopment analysis, This paper analyzed the adaptability of different flight and gave an allocation considering both the economic and the feasibility.
Through the research, theoretically, a systematic aviation demand forecast method and a kind of vivid simulation picture demonstration fleet assignment process have been proposed. Through the data envelope analytic method, a further evaluation has been carried on, enables the final fleet assignment not only efficiency, but also feasibility. The study in this article has the reality significance in the scientific market demand forecast and the fleet assignment for the fine management of an airline. The simulation and evaluation provide the airline a kind of convenient tool to avoid economic risk and to ensure flight safety.
面对这种局面,国内航空公司只有开源节流,即在运输市场上积极拓展客源,在航空管理上进行精益管理。机型指派作为航空公司航班生产运作过程中的核心环节,是航空公司有效控制运营成本,进行精益管理的关键。根据航空公司的客流总量、市场份额、旅客需求和飞机本身技术特点进行科学的机型指派,对提升航空公司的竞争力有现实的意义。
本文综合航空公司机型指派过程中市场需求预测,优化仿真和机型评价三个紧密关联的管理环节,对航空公司航班计划制作过程的重要环节进行分析研究。
市场需求预测从航线客流总量、航空公司在航线上所占市场份额、航班旅客需求,分三个层次对航空公司的市场需求进行了预测,给出了具体的预测方法。在研究过程中,借助支持向量机技术对某一航线上的旅客需求总量进行了预测。在需求总量预测基础上,借助改进后的层次分析法对不同航空公司的竞争能力进行了评价,从而对各个航空公司所能占领的市场份额进行了预测。航空公司在估算了自己在某条航线上的市场份额后,要将这些需求科学合理地分配到各个航班上,这要求各个航空公司根据每个航班的旅客需求分布特点,兼顾航班溢出和再捕获现象,对每个航班的需求进行精细的计算,将收益最大化。这部分的研究主要是给接下来的机型指派研究奠定基础。没有准确的需求预测,就不可能有科学的机型指派。
机型指派是航空公司在科学的旅客需求预测基础上,在现有航线网络和航空公司机队资源条件下,根据飞机可用性、舱位数、运营成本以及潜在收益等,将具有不同舱位容量和舱位结构的飞机指派给不同航线和航班,最终达到收益最大化或成本最小化的过程。机型指派要综合考虑许多方面,诸如航班旅客需求预测、机组资源的分配及飞机维护等。在数学建模和实际的编程计算过程中,遇到许多障碍。本文借助仿真软件,对综合考虑维修因素的飞机指派模型进行了建模求解,提出了一种新的解决机型指派综合问题的思路。
在航空市场需求预测的基础上,借助数学模型进行机型指派优化只是立足于经济性分析,要使最后的机型指派方案具有可行性,还需要结合飞机本身的一些技术指标和所飞航班的具体情况进行分析。本文运用数据包络分析法,综合飞机的技术参数和经济性参数,对三种不同机型在不同航班上的适应性进行了分析,给出了兼顾经济性和可行性的机型分配方案。
通过本文的研究,在理论上给出了系统的航空需求预测方法,提出了一种通过仿真画面展示飞机指派过程的新思路。通过数据包络分析法,将机型指派模型的优化结果进行了进一步的评价研究。本文研究也具有现实的意义,科学的市场需求预测和机型指派为航空公司进行精细管理提供了依据,优化仿真和进行机型评价为航空公司在规避经济风险和保障飞行安全方面提供了一种便捷的工具。
There are opportunities and threats in the current air transport industry in China from the external market environment. First of all, the domestic and international business transactions have been increasing with the China's economic development. Although this increasingly commercial exchanges have brought a lot of passengers to the aviation industry, the foreign airlines are joining the competition through a variety of ways aiming to capture a slice of China's aviation market. Second, with China's industrial restructuring, tourism industry, as an emerging green industry, has been paid more attention to it by local governments gradually,thus bringing a number of tourists.However, a variety of ground transportation industry is also competing through speeding up the distribution network. Third, although the rapid development of China's aviation industry has provided strong support, the competition of airlines are still weak because of high operating costs caused by the overcapacity.
Faced with this critical situation, what the domestic airlines can do is only to cut down the operation costs and to expand the customer in the transportation market, that is to implement the Lean Management.As the core of effective control of operating costs for airlines,the fleet assignment is the key to carry out the lean management.According to the airline passenger flowing volume, market share, passenger demand and aircraft technical features to carry out the scientific fleet assignment is an effective way to enhance the competition of airlines.
Three closely related aspects in the process of the airline’s operation have been conducted in this paper, that is market forecasting, fleet assignment and aircraft evaluation.
First, from the three levels, that is the total quantity of route passenger flow, the market share airline occupied and the flight passenger, this paper put forward to the market demand forecast of Airline and gave the concrete forecast techniques correspondingly. In the process of research, the total passenger demand forecast of some routes has been carried on with the aid of the support vector machines technology. Based on the improved analytic hierarchy process,the appraisal of the different Airline's competitive ability and the corresponding market share have been carried on. After the route's market share was estimated, the market share that the airline occupied should be distributed to each flight reasonably according to the passenger demand distribution characteristic of each flight
The airlines try to get the great benefits through pay more attention to the phenomenon of the fine computation to each flight’s demand, flight overflow and recapture. The research of this part lays the foundation for the following fleet assignment research. There is no scientific fleet assignment without accurate demand prediction.
Based on existing route network and airline fleet resources, fleet assignment is to distribute different aircrafts to the appropriate flights according to aircraft availability, class capacity, operating costs and potential benefits to achieve revenue maximization and minization of the cost ultimately. There are many aspects should be considered, such as traffic forecasts, crew resource allocation and aircraft maintenance. In the process of mathematical model establishment and programming, many obstacles were encountered. Using the simulation software, the author considered the maintenance factors of the integrated model and put forward to a new solution to the assignment of an integrated fleet assignment model.
Based on the aviation market demand forecast, the mathematical optimized results is only an economic analysis. It is necessary to make a synthetic evaluation and consider a number of technical indicators and the flight specific situations.Using data envelopment analysis, This paper analyzed the adaptability of different flight and gave an allocation considering both the economic and the feasibility.
Through the research, theoretically, a systematic aviation demand forecast method and a kind of vivid simulation picture demonstration fleet assignment process have been proposed. Through the data envelope analytic method, a further evaluation has been carried on, enables the final fleet assignment not only efficiency, but also feasibility. The study in this article has the reality significance in the scientific market demand forecast and the fleet assignment for the fine management of an airline. The simulation and evaluation provide the airline a kind of convenient tool to avoid economic risk and to ensure flight safety.
引文
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