高速铁路与民航客运竞争及协同发展研究
|
摘要
根据高铁和民航规划,未来一个时期我国高铁和民航将呈现快速发展势头,在中东部地区形成密集的高速客运网络。这两种运输方式均以实现旅客快速运输为目的,运输产品的高度一致性,决定了两者在客运方面存在相互替代的关系,-并由此产生高度竞争的空间关系。从目前已经运营线路高铁和民航的经营状况来看,恶性竞争的态势已经凸显,如果继续维持这种各自为政、失衡发展的局面,势必造成巨大的人力、物力、财力的浪费。本文综合运用了运输经济学、技术经济学、博弈论等相关理论对高速铁路与民航客运相互竞争和协同发展等若干问题进行了深入研究。本文主要研究内容如下：
(1)与本文研究相关的基础理论阐述。从交通运输业的属性,交通运输需求两个方面,对高速客运业的产业属性、社会属性、经济属性和高速客运的市场需求进行理论概述。在此基础之上,结合交通运输市场的含义、特征、作用和垄断市场行为,对高速客运市场的相关内涵进行分析,并详细叙述了高铁和民航这两种方式的技术经济特点。
(2)不同因素影响下的高速铁路与民航竞争关系分析。根据非集计的相关理论和计算方法,通过对影响旅客进行交通方式选择的宏观因素和微观因素的描述,选取影响因素,建立描述武广高铁沿线高速铁路与民航客运竞争的Binary Logit模型,设计调查问卷实地调查获得统计数据,根据因素间的相关性对影响数据进行剔除,对模型的参数进行标定。在此基础上,综合分析票价、旅程距离、程前程后时间和程前程后费用变化时,高速铁路与民航客运竞争关系的相应变化。
(3)以博弈论思想为核心的高速客运协同定价研究。以运输价格的形成因素、运输价格制定和均衡价格作为理论基础,根据斯坦科尔伯格模型对协同定价的过程进行分析,利用双层规划模型建立描述协同定价过程的定价模型,选择灵敏度分析的方法,结合武广两地高铁和民航的实际运营数据,在原始客流和诱发客流两种限制条件下,对武广两地高铁和民航进行协同定价分析。
(4)以广义建设费用最低和高速客运网络效率作为优化目标,对高铁与民航的协同布局进行研究。以高速铁路和民航客运实际建设成本作为分析数据,选取高速客运网络结构和高速客运服务质量评价的部分指标,建立双目标协同布局模型；以石家庄-广州高铁途经省份为研究区域,使用遗传算法对双目标函数进行加权求解,探讨不同目标权重下研究区域内拟建机场的布局,提出高铁与民航客运协同发展的相关建议。
According the plans of high-speed railway and civil aviation, China's high-speed railway and civil aviation will show a fast development trend for a period of time in the future and then form the dense high-speed passenger transport network in east-central China. These two modes of transport both aim at fast passenger transport. The high degree of consistency of the transport product determines the substitute relationship between them in passenger transport, resulting in the highly competitive space relationship. From the operation status of the existing lines of high-speed railway and civil aviation, the trend of vicious competition has been highlighted. If the situation of independent action and imbalanced development continues, it will inevitably lead to a huge waste of manpower, material and money. This paper comprehensively applies transport economics, technical economics, game theory and other relevant theories to make an in-depth study on the passenger transport competition and harmonious development between high-speed railway and civil aviation. The main research contents of this paper are as follows:
(1) Basic theory introduction related to the research of this paper. The paper elaborates upon the industrial attribute, natural attribute and economic attribute of the high-speed passenger transport industry as well as the high-speed passenger market demand in terms of theory from the attributes of the transportation industry and the demands of transportation. On this basis, it combines the definition, characteristics and role of the transportation market and the monopoly market behavior to analyze the relevant connotations of the high-speed passenger market and give a detailed description of the technical and economic characteristics of high-speed railway and civil aviation.
(2) Analysis of the competitive relationship between high-speed railway and civil aviation under the influence of the different factors. According to the disaggregate relevant theories and calculation method, through the description of the macro and micro factors influencing the passengers' selection of types of transportation, the paper selects the influential factors, establishes the Binary Logit model describing the passenger transport competition between high-speed railway and civil aviation along Wuhan--Guangzhou High-Speed Railway, designs the questionnaire for field survey to obtain statistical data, excludes the influential data according to the correlation between the factors and calibrates the parameters of the model. On this basis, it makes a comprehensive analysis of the appropriate changes of the competitive relationship between high-speed railway and civil aviation when the cost of fares, journey distance, time before and after the journey and cost before and after the journey change.
(3) High-speed passenger transport collaborative pricing study with the game theory as the core. With the factors in the formation of the transport price, transport pricing and equilibrium price as the theoretical basis, the paper makes an analysis on the process of the collaborative pricing according to Steinberg Model, establishes the pricing model describing the process of the collaborative pricing with the bi-level programming model and selects the sensitivity analysis method to make the analysis on the collaborative pricing between high-speed railroad and civil aviation in Wuhan and Guangzhou based on the actual operation data and under two constraints of original passenger flow and induced passenger flow.
(4) Study on the collaborative layout of high-speed railway and civil aviation with the lowest generalized construction costs and the high-speed passenger transport network efficiency as the optimization objectives. With the actual construction costs of high-speed railway and civil aviation as the data for analysis, the paper selects the partial indicators of network structure and service quality evaluation of the high-speed passenger transport to establish the double-objective collaborative layout model; meanwhile, with the provinces Shijiazhuang-Guangzhou high-speed railway passes as the study area, it uses the genetic algorithm to solve the weighted double-objective function, explore the layout of the proposed airports in the study area with different objective weights and put forward the relevant suggestions on the harmonious development of passenger transport between high-speed railway and civil aviation.
(1)与本文研究相关的基础理论阐述。从交通运输业的属性,交通运输需求两个方面,对高速客运业的产业属性、社会属性、经济属性和高速客运的市场需求进行理论概述。在此基础之上,结合交通运输市场的含义、特征、作用和垄断市场行为,对高速客运市场的相关内涵进行分析,并详细叙述了高铁和民航这两种方式的技术经济特点。
(2)不同因素影响下的高速铁路与民航竞争关系分析。根据非集计的相关理论和计算方法,通过对影响旅客进行交通方式选择的宏观因素和微观因素的描述,选取影响因素,建立描述武广高铁沿线高速铁路与民航客运竞争的Binary Logit模型,设计调查问卷实地调查获得统计数据,根据因素间的相关性对影响数据进行剔除,对模型的参数进行标定。在此基础上,综合分析票价、旅程距离、程前程后时间和程前程后费用变化时,高速铁路与民航客运竞争关系的相应变化。
(3)以博弈论思想为核心的高速客运协同定价研究。以运输价格的形成因素、运输价格制定和均衡价格作为理论基础,根据斯坦科尔伯格模型对协同定价的过程进行分析,利用双层规划模型建立描述协同定价过程的定价模型,选择灵敏度分析的方法,结合武广两地高铁和民航的实际运营数据,在原始客流和诱发客流两种限制条件下,对武广两地高铁和民航进行协同定价分析。
(4)以广义建设费用最低和高速客运网络效率作为优化目标,对高铁与民航的协同布局进行研究。以高速铁路和民航客运实际建设成本作为分析数据,选取高速客运网络结构和高速客运服务质量评价的部分指标,建立双目标协同布局模型；以石家庄-广州高铁途经省份为研究区域,使用遗传算法对双目标函数进行加权求解,探讨不同目标权重下研究区域内拟建机场的布局,提出高铁与民航客运协同发展的相关建议。
According the plans of high-speed railway and civil aviation, China's high-speed railway and civil aviation will show a fast development trend for a period of time in the future and then form the dense high-speed passenger transport network in east-central China. These two modes of transport both aim at fast passenger transport. The high degree of consistency of the transport product determines the substitute relationship between them in passenger transport, resulting in the highly competitive space relationship. From the operation status of the existing lines of high-speed railway and civil aviation, the trend of vicious competition has been highlighted. If the situation of independent action and imbalanced development continues, it will inevitably lead to a huge waste of manpower, material and money. This paper comprehensively applies transport economics, technical economics, game theory and other relevant theories to make an in-depth study on the passenger transport competition and harmonious development between high-speed railway and civil aviation. The main research contents of this paper are as follows:
(1) Basic theory introduction related to the research of this paper. The paper elaborates upon the industrial attribute, natural attribute and economic attribute of the high-speed passenger transport industry as well as the high-speed passenger market demand in terms of theory from the attributes of the transportation industry and the demands of transportation. On this basis, it combines the definition, characteristics and role of the transportation market and the monopoly market behavior to analyze the relevant connotations of the high-speed passenger market and give a detailed description of the technical and economic characteristics of high-speed railway and civil aviation.
(2) Analysis of the competitive relationship between high-speed railway and civil aviation under the influence of the different factors. According to the disaggregate relevant theories and calculation method, through the description of the macro and micro factors influencing the passengers' selection of types of transportation, the paper selects the influential factors, establishes the Binary Logit model describing the passenger transport competition between high-speed railway and civil aviation along Wuhan--Guangzhou High-Speed Railway, designs the questionnaire for field survey to obtain statistical data, excludes the influential data according to the correlation between the factors and calibrates the parameters of the model. On this basis, it makes a comprehensive analysis of the appropriate changes of the competitive relationship between high-speed railway and civil aviation when the cost of fares, journey distance, time before and after the journey and cost before and after the journey change.
(3) High-speed passenger transport collaborative pricing study with the game theory as the core. With the factors in the formation of the transport price, transport pricing and equilibrium price as the theoretical basis, the paper makes an analysis on the process of the collaborative pricing according to Steinberg Model, establishes the pricing model describing the process of the collaborative pricing with the bi-level programming model and selects the sensitivity analysis method to make the analysis on the collaborative pricing between high-speed railroad and civil aviation in Wuhan and Guangzhou based on the actual operation data and under two constraints of original passenger flow and induced passenger flow.
(4) Study on the collaborative layout of high-speed railway and civil aviation with the lowest generalized construction costs and the high-speed passenger transport network efficiency as the optimization objectives. With the actual construction costs of high-speed railway and civil aviation as the data for analysis, the paper selects the partial indicators of network structure and service quality evaluation of the high-speed passenger transport to establish the double-objective collaborative layout model; meanwhile, with the provinces Shijiazhuang-Guangzhou high-speed railway passes as the study area, it uses the genetic algorithm to solve the weighted double-objective function, explore the layout of the proposed airports in the study area with different objective weights and put forward the relevant suggestions on the harmonious development of passenger transport between high-speed railway and civil aviation.
引文
[1]赵振辉,秦四平.试论中国发展高速铁路的必然性[J].科技信息,2001(6)：18.
[2]薛战军.展望中国高速铁路发展的战略意义[J].科技创新导报,2008(21)：55.
[3]国林.加快高速铁路建设步伐,实现我国铁路的跨越式发展[J].铁路建设,2001(6)：12.
[4]周颖,魏贤奎.我国高速铁路发展概况及前景展望.[J]科技促进发展,2009(6)：331.
[5]程庆国,卢肇君,周镜.加快高速铁路建设,促进综合运输发展[J].中国铁路1998(8)1-4.
[6]樊桦.高速铁路建设对民航发展的预期影响分析[J].中国民用民航,2009(9)：17-18
[7]董舒敏.高速铁路—民航的“利空”消息?[J].中国民用民航,2008(6)：80.
[8]宫辉,李微微.京沪高速铁路对我国民航公司发展的影响初探[J].民航客运,2007(10)：33-36.
[9]张怀明.中枢辐射航线网络的运行条件[J].国际民航,2000,6：37-39
[10]蒋璜,肖秋声,任福田等译.城市交通规划理论与实践[M].北京：人民交通出版社1987.
[11]牛勤学,王炜,殷志锋.城市交通方式分担预测方法研究[J].公路交通科技,2004(21)：75-77.
[12]陈学武,王炜.城市客运交通方式结构预测的层次分析法[J].东南大学学报,1998(28)：24-26.
[13]王正,刘安,郑萍.广义Logit交通方式划分预测方法[J].同济大学学报,1999(3)：314-317.
[14]过秀成,王炜,吕慎.基于合作竞争类OD的轨道客流预测方法[J].公路交通科技,2000(4)：57-59.
[15]姜志武.京沪高速铁路客流分析[J].科技经济市场,2007(2)：24-25.
[16]霍有志,杨延梅.基于竞争博弈的铁路客运票价调整[J].交通科技与经济,2010(06)：29-31.
[17]黎茂盛,史峰,郑国华.不同票价客票需求强度参数的数据挖掘技术研究[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2005.02(01)：79-84.
[18]卞长志,陆化普.城市轨道交通和常规公交的票价博弈研究[J].公路工程,2009,02(34)：49-51.
[19]吴云云.德国铁路客运定价机制及票价体系[J].综合运输2011(01)：71-74.
[20]陈建华,高自友.合理制定铁路旅客票价的优化方法[J].铁道学报2005,8(27)：16-19.
[21]徐冰.基于铁路客运票价的定价模型及求解方法研究[D].沈阳工业大学硕士论文,2007.
[22]樊玲玲,朱精果.市场经济条件下铁路旅客票价及速度效益分析[J].交通科技与经济2004(05)45-49.
[23]高自友,四兵锋.国内支线机场的建设时机[J].中国民用民航,2002(12)：46-47.
[24]帅斌.基于系统利润最优的运价规则安排的研究[J].西南交通大学学报2001,2(36)：92-95.
[25]马驷,李鑫.考虑通道分工和竞争的客运专线定价方法[J].西南交通大学学报,2006,10(41)：603-607.
[26]Federal Aviation Administration [J].Planning and Design of airportFAA, 1980: 5-6.
[27]International Civil Aviation Organizatio[J]n, ICAO Annex 14 AERODROME, International Civil Aviation Organization, 1999: 17-18.
[28]罗伯特·霍隆杰夫,弗兰西斯·马卡维著,吴问涛译.机场规划与设计[M].同济大学出版社,1987.
[29]张军,都业富.发展中枢辐射航线网络战略思考.中国民航学院学报,2004,22：(增刊)183-186.
[30]李都.国际民航枢纽与国际民航客运[J].中国民用民航.2001(1)：19.
[31]刘万明.我国民航机场布局规划问题研究和探讨[J].中国民用民航,2002(19)：39-42.
[32]刁永海,朱金福.支线机场的建设与发展[J].中国民用民航,2002(5)：37-40.
[33]惠山林.国内支线机场的建设时机[J].中国民用民航,2002(12)：46-47.
[34]刘术红.高速铁路客运枢纽交通规划研究[J].山西科技,2007(2)：27-28.
[35]张玉彪,杨磊客运专线车站建设的几点建议[J].交通标准化,2007(8)：80-82.
[36]吴凤雄.优化交通运输结构,加快高速铁路建设[J].中国铁路,1996(8)：32-33.
[37]刘强,陆化普,邹博.我国综合运输网络布局规划研究[J].武汉理工大学学报,2009(4)：203-206.
[38]肖昭升.我国综合运输结构问题成因分析[J].综合运输,2003(9)：8-11.
[39]何流,陈大伟,李旭宏.线性规划综合运输网络合理规模研究[J].交通信息与安全,2009(2)：51-55.
[40]徐利民,胡思继.论交通运输系统的协同发展[J].技术经济,2003(5).
[41]Wong W C, Han B M, Ferreira L, et al. Evaluation of management strategies for the operation of high-speed railways in China[J].Transportation Research Part A, 2002,36(3): 277-289.
[42]Saad N, Aljarad, William R, Black. Modeling Saudi Ara-bia-Bahrain Corridor Mode Choice[J].Journal of Transport Geography, 1995,3(4): 257-268.
[43]Chaug-Ing Hsu, Wen-Ming Chung. A model for market share distribution between high-speed and conventional rail services in a transportation corridor [J]. The Annals of Regional Science, 1997, 31(02): 121-153.
[44]彭其渊,殷勇,闰海峰,等.客运专线建成后铁路运输通道合理分工模型[J].西南交通大学学报,2005,40(6)：788-792.
[45]张浩然,任刚,王炜.非集计模型在交通方式结构预测中的应用[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2008,8(5)：44-49
[46]赵淑芝,赵贝,朱永刚.基于SP调查的出行方式选择模型与公交优先政策[J].吉林大学学报(工学版),2009,39(2)：187-190.
[47]朱健梅.竞争性运输通道选择的博弈模型研究[J].西南交通大学学报,2003,38(3)：336-340.
[48]Yannis T, Constantions A. Public transit user satisfaction: Variability and policy implications [J]. Transport Policy, 2008, 15 (4): 197-208.
[49]Piet R, Vanessa D. Determinants of bicycle use: do municipal policies matter [J]. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2004, 38(7): 531-550.
[50]富晓艳,隽志才,宗芳.基于非集计选择模型的长春市居民出行数据分析[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2007,7(5)：80-84.
[51]金安.LOG IT模型参数估计方法研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2004,4(1)：71-75.
[52]张喜.基于意向调查数据的非集计运量预测模型估计的研究[J].铁道学报.2002.22(2)：10-15.
[53]中国民用民航局课题组.高速铁路对民航发展的影响及政策建议[J].中国民用民航,2009,105(8)：15-19.
[54]贺国光,纪银苗,刘峰涛.基于双层博弈的交通方式选择[J].长安大学学报(社会科学版)[J].2006,8(3)：4-7.
[55]冯焕焕,朱从坤.粗糙集理论在城际问客运量分担率模型中的应用[J].苏州科技学院学报(工程技术版),2007,20(1)：30-33.
[55]朱从坤,王洁,冯焕焕.区域运输通道内客运方式分担率模型[J].交通运输工程学报,2005,5(4)：111-115.
[56]罗建国.旅客交通行为分析理论与模型[J].公路与汽车,2002,3(6)：72-73.
[57]庞松.论交通结构调整与交通可持续发展[J].交通环保,2001,22(5)：1-4.
[58]邵春福.交通规划原理[M].北京：中国铁道出版社,2004.
[59]Smith M. J. The existence, uniqueness and stability of traffic equilibria [JJ.Transpn Res. 1979, 13B: 295-304..
[60]范莉莉.我国综合客运需求函数及各种客运方式的需求格局[J].管理工程学报,2005,4(19)：69-73.
[61]David Levinson. Micro-foundations of congestion and pricing: A game theory perspective[J]. Transportation Research Part A 39(2005): 691-704.
[62]Lian-Ju Sun, Zi-You Gao. An equilibrium model for urban transit assignment based on game theory [J].European Journal of Operational Research 181(2007): 305-314.
[63]Michael G. H. Bell. A game theory approach to measuring the performance reliability of transport networks [J]. Transportation Research Part B 34(2000): 533-545.
[64]Bodin L,Golden B,Assad A.and Ball M. Routing and scheduling of vehicles and crews: the state of the art [J]. Computer and Operation Research ,1983,10: 62-212.
[65]Perincherry V, Kikuchl S. A fuzzy approach to the transshipment problem[A] In B.M.Ayyub[C]. Proceeding of ISUMA'90. IEEE Computer Press Silver Spring.
[66]Teodorovic D, Pavkovic G. The fuzzy set theory approach to the vehicle routing problem when demand at nodes is uncertain[J]. Fuzzy Set and Systems., 1996. 82: 307-317.
[67]Cheng R,and M Gen. Vehicle routing problem with fuzzy due-time using genetic algorithms[J]. Japanese Journal of Fuzzy Theory and Systems 1995,7(5): 1050-1061.
[68]Anming Zhang. Current status and prospects of China's air cargo logistics industry. International Seminar on the Current Status and Prospects of Korea and China' S Logistic.Market. 2007.3
[69]Philip Kotler., Marketing Management[M], Prentice Hall Inc. 1996.
[70]James A.Fitzsimmons, Service Management[M], McGraw-Hill Inc.1998.
[71]Javier Campos,Gines de Rus.Some stylized facts about high-speed rail: A review of HSR experiences around the world[J]. Transport Policy 16(2009): 19-28.
[72]Yonghwa Park, Hun-Koo Ha. Analysis of the impact of high-speed railroad service on air transport demand[J]. Transportation Research Part E 42(2006): 95-104.
[73]W. G. Wong, B. M. Han, L. Ferreira, X. N. Zhu, Q.X. Sun. Evaluation of management strategies for the operation of high-speed railways in china[J].Transportation Research Part A 36(2002): 277-289.
[74]Kasanen R, Ghajar R. Evaluation of the marginal outage costs in electric generating systems[J]. Utilities Policies, 1994,4(4): 155-164.
[75]Karmarker U, Pitbladdo R .Product-line selection, production decisions and allocation of common fixed costs[J]. International J of Production Economics, 1994, 34(2): 17-23.
[76]Raman K, Chatterjee R. Optimal monopolist pricing under demand uncertainty in dynamic markets[J]. Management Science, 1995, 41(1): 144-162.
[77]Roy A, Hanssens D M, Raju J S. Competitive pricing by a price leader[J]. Management Science 1994,40(7): 809-823.
[78]Nicholas C. Petruzz, George E. Monahan. Managing fashion goods inventories: dynamic recourse for retailers with outlet stores[J]. HE Transactions 2003,35,1033-1047.
[79]Zhou Lixinn, Chen I an, Li Weinuo. The network functions in cohere form[Al.Proc systemati-tally neneratinn method of symbolic ICEECJ. Kyonnju, 1998. 21-25.
[80]Balachandran K R. Purchasing priorities in queues[J]. Management Science, 1972; 18(5): 319-326.
[81]Naor P. On the regulation of queue size by levying tolls[J]. Econometica, 1969; 37: 15-24.
[82]Kundsen N C. Individual and social optimization in a multi-serverwith a general cost-benefit structure[J]. Econometrica, 1970; 40: 515-528.
[83]黄为,谢立.中国支线民航客运实证分析[J].中国民用民航,2002,17(5)：41-43.
[84]黎群.民航公司战略联盟的经济动因分析.理工程学报[J].2005,19(6)：99-105.
[85]郝勇,陈剑峰.京沪客运通道的民航与高铁协同研究[J].南京民航航天大学学报(社会科学版),2011,13(02)：44-47.
[86]王庆云.交通运输发展理论与实践[M].北京：中国科学技术出版社,2006.
[87]陆化普.交通规划理论与方法[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006.
[88]刘继生,陈彦光.交通网络空间结构的分形维数及其测算方法探讨[J].地理学报,1999,54(5)：471-78.
[89]黄静兰.交通运输网络特性分析[J].综合运输,2003,(6)：11-13.
[90]蔡军.城市路网结构体系规划[M].北京：中国建筑工业出版社,2008.
[91]石钦文,徐利民,胡思继.可持续发展综合交通运输系统规划理论研究[J].综合运输,2006,(6)：5-8.
[92]张生瑞,严宝杰.交通运输系统协同发展的理论分析[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2002,22(2)：51-53.
[93]West G B, Brown J H, Enquist B J. A general model for the origin of allometric scaling laws in biology[J]. Science, 1997, 276(5309): 122-126.
[94]West G B, Brown J H, Enquist B J. The fourth dimension of life: fractal geometry and allometric scaling of organisms[J]. Science, 1999, 284(5420): 1677-1679.
[95]Lammer S, Gehlsen B, Helbing D. Scaling laws in the spatial structure of urban road networks[J].Physica A: Statistical and Theoretical Physics, 2006, 363(1): 89-95.
[96]Zipf G K. Human behavior and the principle of least effort: An introduction to human ecology[M]. Addison-Wesley press, Cambridge M A, 1949.
[97]Salingaros N A, West B J. A universal rule for the distribution of sizes[J]. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 1999, 26: 909-923.
[98]Andersson C, Hellervik A, Lindgren K. A spatial network explanation for a hierarchy of urban power laws[J]. Physics A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2005, 345(1-2): 227-244.
[99]ChristalIer W. Central places in southern Germany[M]. Translated by C. W. Baskin, Prentice Hall, New York, 1966.
[100]Medda F, Nijkamp P, Rietveld P. Urban industrial relocation: The theory of edge cities[J]. Environment&Planning B, 1999, 26: 751 -761.
[101]Batty M. Urban evolution on the desktop: simulation with the use of extended cellular automata[J]. Environment and Planning A, 1998, 30: 1943-1968.
[102]四兵锋,高自友.多模式城市混合交通平衡配流模型及算法[[J].公路交通科技,1999,16(1)：44-48.
[103]傅白白,刘法胜,夏尊拴.变分不等式的双层平衡表示及其在交通流分配中的应用[[J],系统理论工程与实践,1999,19(12)：70-73.
[104]赵航,何世伟,宋瑞.区域运输通道网络设计研究[[J].土木工程学报,2007,40(5)： 74-78.
[105]Learn D W, Ribera J. Multipliers and gradient methods[J]. Journal of Optimization Theories and pplications, 1980, 4: 303-320.
[106]Lam W H K, Li Z, Wong S C, et al. Modeling an elastic-demand bimodal transport network with park-and-ride trips[J]. Tsinghua Science&Technology, 2007, 12(2): 158-166.
[107]Hearn D W, Ribera J. Multipliers and gradient methods[J]. Journal of Optimization Theories and Applications, 1980, 4: 303-320.
[108]Bertsekas D P. Constrained optimization and Lagrange multiplier methods[M]. San Diego (CA): Academic Press, 1982.
[109]Patriksson M, Daduna J R. The traffic assignment problem: models and methods[M]. BV (The Notherlands): VSP Utrecht, 1994.
[110]Hearn D W. Bounding flows in traffic assignment models[R]. Research report 80-4, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 1980.
[lll]Yang H, Yagar S. Traffic assignment and signal control in saturated road networks[J]. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 1995, 29(2): 125-139.
[112]Hestenes M R. Multiplier and gradient methods[J]. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 1969, 4(5): 303-320.
[113]Powell M. A method for nonlinear constraints in minimization problems[J]. Optimization, 1969: 283-298.
[114]Bell M G H. Stochastic user equilibrium assignment in networks with queues[J]. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 1995, 29(2): 125-137.
[115]Yang H, Huang H-J. Analysis of the time-varying pricing of a bottleneck with elastic demand using optimal control theory[J]. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 1997, 31(6): 425-440.
[116]Hearn D W, Yildirim M B. A toll pricing framework for traffic assignment problems with elastic demand[J]. Current trends in transportation and network analysis, 2002: 135.
[117]张好智,高自友,张贝.环境目标下城市交通综合网络设计的优化模型及求解算法[J].土木工程学报,2006,39(11)：114-119.
[118]黄海军.交通行为建模—问题与机会[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2002(01)： 23-29.
[119]计量经济学方法(第四版)[M]Jack Johnston&John DiNardo (2002),中国经济出版社.
[120]金安,毛保华,邹良东交通方式选择模型与应用研究[J],内蒙古公路与运输,1997(01)：33-35.
[121]赵鹏,藤原章正,杉惠赖宁SP调查方法在交通预测中的应用[J],北方交通大学学报,2000(06)：29-32.
[122]喻翔.毛敏,刘建兵城市交通需求预测组合模型的研究[J],西南交通大学学报,2003(01)：75-79.
[123]罗建国.旅客交通行为分析理论与模型[J].公路与汽运,2002(03)：72-73.
[124陈学武王炜.城市客运交通方式结构预测的层次分析法[J].东南大学学报,1998(03)：23-26
[125]过秀成,王炜.基于居民出行决策的轻轨客流预测方法研究[J].东南大学学报,1998(04)：107-112.
[126]南敬林、京沪通道旅客行为时间价值研究[J].铁道经济研究,2002(03)：37-38
[127]曲大义,于仲臣,庄劲松,刘同友,杨明,武勇.苏州市居民出行特征分析及交通发展对策研究[J].东南大学学报,2001(03)：118-123
[128]过秀成,王炜,吕慎基于合作竞争类OD的轨道客流预测方法研究[J].公路交通科技,2000(04)：57-60
[129]李旭宏.城市交通方式预测实用方法研究[J].东南大学学报,1997(06)：138-141
[130]李彬,杨东援,孙四平,竞争性公共交通客运需求预测模型[J].预测,2001(04)：72-74.
[131]王庆云.交通运输与经济发展的内在关系[J].综合运输,2003(7)：21-26.
[132]帅斌,霍娅敏.运输经济学[M].成都：西南交通大学出版社,2009.
[133]左辅强,沈中伟.高铁时代[M].北京：科学出版社,2012.
[134]贾顺平.交通运输经济学[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2011.
[2]薛战军.展望中国高速铁路发展的战略意义[J].科技创新导报,2008(21)：55.
[3]国林.加快高速铁路建设步伐,实现我国铁路的跨越式发展[J].铁路建设,2001(6)：12.
[4]周颖,魏贤奎.我国高速铁路发展概况及前景展望.[J]科技促进发展,2009(6)：331.
[5]程庆国,卢肇君,周镜.加快高速铁路建设,促进综合运输发展[J].中国铁路1998(8)1-4.
[6]樊桦.高速铁路建设对民航发展的预期影响分析[J].中国民用民航,2009(9)：17-18
[7]董舒敏.高速铁路—民航的“利空”消息?[J].中国民用民航,2008(6)：80.
[8]宫辉,李微微.京沪高速铁路对我国民航公司发展的影响初探[J].民航客运,2007(10)：33-36.
[9]张怀明.中枢辐射航线网络的运行条件[J].国际民航,2000,6：37-39
[10]蒋璜,肖秋声,任福田等译.城市交通规划理论与实践[M].北京：人民交通出版社1987.
[11]牛勤学,王炜,殷志锋.城市交通方式分担预测方法研究[J].公路交通科技,2004(21)：75-77.
[12]陈学武,王炜.城市客运交通方式结构预测的层次分析法[J].东南大学学报,1998(28)：24-26.
[13]王正,刘安,郑萍.广义Logit交通方式划分预测方法[J].同济大学学报,1999(3)：314-317.
[14]过秀成,王炜,吕慎.基于合作竞争类OD的轨道客流预测方法[J].公路交通科技,2000(4)：57-59.
[15]姜志武.京沪高速铁路客流分析[J].科技经济市场,2007(2)：24-25.
[16]霍有志,杨延梅.基于竞争博弈的铁路客运票价调整[J].交通科技与经济,2010(06)：29-31.
[17]黎茂盛,史峰,郑国华.不同票价客票需求强度参数的数据挖掘技术研究[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2005.02(01)：79-84.
[18]卞长志,陆化普.城市轨道交通和常规公交的票价博弈研究[J].公路工程,2009,02(34)：49-51.
[19]吴云云.德国铁路客运定价机制及票价体系[J].综合运输2011(01)：71-74.
[20]陈建华,高自友.合理制定铁路旅客票价的优化方法[J].铁道学报2005,8(27)：16-19.
[21]徐冰.基于铁路客运票价的定价模型及求解方法研究[D].沈阳工业大学硕士论文,2007.
[22]樊玲玲,朱精果.市场经济条件下铁路旅客票价及速度效益分析[J].交通科技与经济2004(05)45-49.
[23]高自友,四兵锋.国内支线机场的建设时机[J].中国民用民航,2002(12)：46-47.
[24]帅斌.基于系统利润最优的运价规则安排的研究[J].西南交通大学学报2001,2(36)：92-95.
[25]马驷,李鑫.考虑通道分工和竞争的客运专线定价方法[J].西南交通大学学报,2006,10(41)：603-607.
[26]Federal Aviation Administration [J].Planning and Design of airportFAA, 1980: 5-6.
[27]International Civil Aviation Organizatio[J]n, ICAO Annex 14 AERODROME, International Civil Aviation Organization, 1999: 17-18.
[28]罗伯特·霍隆杰夫,弗兰西斯·马卡维著,吴问涛译.机场规划与设计[M].同济大学出版社,1987.
[29]张军,都业富.发展中枢辐射航线网络战略思考.中国民航学院学报,2004,22：(增刊)183-186.
[30]李都.国际民航枢纽与国际民航客运[J].中国民用民航.2001(1)：19.
[31]刘万明.我国民航机场布局规划问题研究和探讨[J].中国民用民航,2002(19)：39-42.
[32]刁永海,朱金福.支线机场的建设与发展[J].中国民用民航,2002(5)：37-40.
[33]惠山林.国内支线机场的建设时机[J].中国民用民航,2002(12)：46-47.
[34]刘术红.高速铁路客运枢纽交通规划研究[J].山西科技,2007(2)：27-28.
[35]张玉彪,杨磊客运专线车站建设的几点建议[J].交通标准化,2007(8)：80-82.
[36]吴凤雄.优化交通运输结构,加快高速铁路建设[J].中国铁路,1996(8)：32-33.
[37]刘强,陆化普,邹博.我国综合运输网络布局规划研究[J].武汉理工大学学报,2009(4)：203-206.
[38]肖昭升.我国综合运输结构问题成因分析[J].综合运输,2003(9)：8-11.
[39]何流,陈大伟,李旭宏.线性规划综合运输网络合理规模研究[J].交通信息与安全,2009(2)：51-55.
[40]徐利民,胡思继.论交通运输系统的协同发展[J].技术经济,2003(5).
[41]Wong W C, Han B M, Ferreira L, et al. Evaluation of management strategies for the operation of high-speed railways in China[J].Transportation Research Part A, 2002,36(3): 277-289.
[42]Saad N, Aljarad, William R, Black. Modeling Saudi Ara-bia-Bahrain Corridor Mode Choice[J].Journal of Transport Geography, 1995,3(4): 257-268.
[43]Chaug-Ing Hsu, Wen-Ming Chung. A model for market share distribution between high-speed and conventional rail services in a transportation corridor [J]. The Annals of Regional Science, 1997, 31(02): 121-153.
[44]彭其渊,殷勇,闰海峰,等.客运专线建成后铁路运输通道合理分工模型[J].西南交通大学学报,2005,40(6)：788-792.
[45]张浩然,任刚,王炜.非集计模型在交通方式结构预测中的应用[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2008,8(5)：44-49
[46]赵淑芝,赵贝,朱永刚.基于SP调查的出行方式选择模型与公交优先政策[J].吉林大学学报(工学版),2009,39(2)：187-190.
[47]朱健梅.竞争性运输通道选择的博弈模型研究[J].西南交通大学学报,2003,38(3)：336-340.
[48]Yannis T, Constantions A. Public transit user satisfaction: Variability and policy implications [J]. Transport Policy, 2008, 15 (4): 197-208.
[49]Piet R, Vanessa D. Determinants of bicycle use: do municipal policies matter [J]. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2004, 38(7): 531-550.
[50]富晓艳,隽志才,宗芳.基于非集计选择模型的长春市居民出行数据分析[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2007,7(5)：80-84.
[51]金安.LOG IT模型参数估计方法研究[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2004,4(1)：71-75.
[52]张喜.基于意向调查数据的非集计运量预测模型估计的研究[J].铁道学报.2002.22(2)：10-15.
[53]中国民用民航局课题组.高速铁路对民航发展的影响及政策建议[J].中国民用民航,2009,105(8)：15-19.
[54]贺国光,纪银苗,刘峰涛.基于双层博弈的交通方式选择[J].长安大学学报(社会科学版)[J].2006,8(3)：4-7.
[55]冯焕焕,朱从坤.粗糙集理论在城际问客运量分担率模型中的应用[J].苏州科技学院学报(工程技术版),2007,20(1)：30-33.
[55]朱从坤,王洁,冯焕焕.区域运输通道内客运方式分担率模型[J].交通运输工程学报,2005,5(4)：111-115.
[56]罗建国.旅客交通行为分析理论与模型[J].公路与汽车,2002,3(6)：72-73.
[57]庞松.论交通结构调整与交通可持续发展[J].交通环保,2001,22(5)：1-4.
[58]邵春福.交通规划原理[M].北京：中国铁道出版社,2004.
[59]Smith M. J. The existence, uniqueness and stability of traffic equilibria [JJ.Transpn Res. 1979, 13B: 295-304..
[60]范莉莉.我国综合客运需求函数及各种客运方式的需求格局[J].管理工程学报,2005,4(19)：69-73.
[61]David Levinson. Micro-foundations of congestion and pricing: A game theory perspective[J]. Transportation Research Part A 39(2005): 691-704.
[62]Lian-Ju Sun, Zi-You Gao. An equilibrium model for urban transit assignment based on game theory [J].European Journal of Operational Research 181(2007): 305-314.
[63]Michael G. H. Bell. A game theory approach to measuring the performance reliability of transport networks [J]. Transportation Research Part B 34(2000): 533-545.
[64]Bodin L,Golden B,Assad A.and Ball M. Routing and scheduling of vehicles and crews: the state of the art [J]. Computer and Operation Research ,1983,10: 62-212.
[65]Perincherry V, Kikuchl S. A fuzzy approach to the transshipment problem[A] In B.M.Ayyub[C]. Proceeding of ISUMA'90. IEEE Computer Press Silver Spring.
[66]Teodorovic D, Pavkovic G. The fuzzy set theory approach to the vehicle routing problem when demand at nodes is uncertain[J]. Fuzzy Set and Systems., 1996. 82: 307-317.
[67]Cheng R,and M Gen. Vehicle routing problem with fuzzy due-time using genetic algorithms[J]. Japanese Journal of Fuzzy Theory and Systems 1995,7(5): 1050-1061.
[68]Anming Zhang. Current status and prospects of China's air cargo logistics industry. International Seminar on the Current Status and Prospects of Korea and China' S Logistic.Market. 2007.3
[69]Philip Kotler., Marketing Management[M], Prentice Hall Inc. 1996.
[70]James A.Fitzsimmons, Service Management[M], McGraw-Hill Inc.1998.
[71]Javier Campos,Gines de Rus.Some stylized facts about high-speed rail: A review of HSR experiences around the world[J]. Transport Policy 16(2009): 19-28.
[72]Yonghwa Park, Hun-Koo Ha. Analysis of the impact of high-speed railroad service on air transport demand[J]. Transportation Research Part E 42(2006): 95-104.
[73]W. G. Wong, B. M. Han, L. Ferreira, X. N. Zhu, Q.X. Sun. Evaluation of management strategies for the operation of high-speed railways in china[J].Transportation Research Part A 36(2002): 277-289.
[74]Kasanen R, Ghajar R. Evaluation of the marginal outage costs in electric generating systems[J]. Utilities Policies, 1994,4(4): 155-164.
[75]Karmarker U, Pitbladdo R .Product-line selection, production decisions and allocation of common fixed costs[J]. International J of Production Economics, 1994, 34(2): 17-23.
[76]Raman K, Chatterjee R. Optimal monopolist pricing under demand uncertainty in dynamic markets[J]. Management Science, 1995, 41(1): 144-162.
[77]Roy A, Hanssens D M, Raju J S. Competitive pricing by a price leader[J]. Management Science 1994,40(7): 809-823.
[78]Nicholas C. Petruzz, George E. Monahan. Managing fashion goods inventories: dynamic recourse for retailers with outlet stores[J]. HE Transactions 2003,35,1033-1047.
[79]Zhou Lixinn, Chen I an, Li Weinuo. The network functions in cohere form[Al.Proc systemati-tally neneratinn method of symbolic ICEECJ. Kyonnju, 1998. 21-25.
[80]Balachandran K R. Purchasing priorities in queues[J]. Management Science, 1972; 18(5): 319-326.
[81]Naor P. On the regulation of queue size by levying tolls[J]. Econometica, 1969; 37: 15-24.
[82]Kundsen N C. Individual and social optimization in a multi-serverwith a general cost-benefit structure[J]. Econometrica, 1970; 40: 515-528.
[83]黄为,谢立.中国支线民航客运实证分析[J].中国民用民航,2002,17(5)：41-43.
[84]黎群.民航公司战略联盟的经济动因分析.理工程学报[J].2005,19(6)：99-105.
[85]郝勇,陈剑峰.京沪客运通道的民航与高铁协同研究[J].南京民航航天大学学报(社会科学版),2011,13(02)：44-47.
[86]王庆云.交通运输发展理论与实践[M].北京：中国科学技术出版社,2006.
[87]陆化普.交通规划理论与方法[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2006.
[88]刘继生,陈彦光.交通网络空间结构的分形维数及其测算方法探讨[J].地理学报,1999,54(5)：471-78.
[89]黄静兰.交通运输网络特性分析[J].综合运输,2003,(6)：11-13.
[90]蔡军.城市路网结构体系规划[M].北京：中国建筑工业出版社,2008.
[91]石钦文,徐利民,胡思继.可持续发展综合交通运输系统规划理论研究[J].综合运输,2006,(6)：5-8.
[92]张生瑞,严宝杰.交通运输系统协同发展的理论分析[J].长安大学学报(自然科学版),2002,22(2)：51-53.
[93]West G B, Brown J H, Enquist B J. A general model for the origin of allometric scaling laws in biology[J]. Science, 1997, 276(5309): 122-126.
[94]West G B, Brown J H, Enquist B J. The fourth dimension of life: fractal geometry and allometric scaling of organisms[J]. Science, 1999, 284(5420): 1677-1679.
[95]Lammer S, Gehlsen B, Helbing D. Scaling laws in the spatial structure of urban road networks[J].Physica A: Statistical and Theoretical Physics, 2006, 363(1): 89-95.
[96]Zipf G K. Human behavior and the principle of least effort: An introduction to human ecology[M]. Addison-Wesley press, Cambridge M A, 1949.
[97]Salingaros N A, West B J. A universal rule for the distribution of sizes[J]. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 1999, 26: 909-923.
[98]Andersson C, Hellervik A, Lindgren K. A spatial network explanation for a hierarchy of urban power laws[J]. Physics A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 2005, 345(1-2): 227-244.
[99]ChristalIer W. Central places in southern Germany[M]. Translated by C. W. Baskin, Prentice Hall, New York, 1966.
[100]Medda F, Nijkamp P, Rietveld P. Urban industrial relocation: The theory of edge cities[J]. Environment&Planning B, 1999, 26: 751 -761.
[101]Batty M. Urban evolution on the desktop: simulation with the use of extended cellular automata[J]. Environment and Planning A, 1998, 30: 1943-1968.
[102]四兵锋,高自友.多模式城市混合交通平衡配流模型及算法[[J].公路交通科技,1999,16(1)：44-48.
[103]傅白白,刘法胜,夏尊拴.变分不等式的双层平衡表示及其在交通流分配中的应用[[J],系统理论工程与实践,1999,19(12)：70-73.
[104]赵航,何世伟,宋瑞.区域运输通道网络设计研究[[J].土木工程学报,2007,40(5)： 74-78.
[105]Learn D W, Ribera J. Multipliers and gradient methods[J]. Journal of Optimization Theories and pplications, 1980, 4: 303-320.
[106]Lam W H K, Li Z, Wong S C, et al. Modeling an elastic-demand bimodal transport network with park-and-ride trips[J]. Tsinghua Science&Technology, 2007, 12(2): 158-166.
[107]Hearn D W, Ribera J. Multipliers and gradient methods[J]. Journal of Optimization Theories and Applications, 1980, 4: 303-320.
[108]Bertsekas D P. Constrained optimization and Lagrange multiplier methods[M]. San Diego (CA): Academic Press, 1982.
[109]Patriksson M, Daduna J R. The traffic assignment problem: models and methods[M]. BV (The Notherlands): VSP Utrecht, 1994.
[110]Hearn D W. Bounding flows in traffic assignment models[R]. Research report 80-4, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 1980.
[lll]Yang H, Yagar S. Traffic assignment and signal control in saturated road networks[J]. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 1995, 29(2): 125-139.
[112]Hestenes M R. Multiplier and gradient methods[J]. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 1969, 4(5): 303-320.
[113]Powell M. A method for nonlinear constraints in minimization problems[J]. Optimization, 1969: 283-298.
[114]Bell M G H. Stochastic user equilibrium assignment in networks with queues[J]. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 1995, 29(2): 125-137.
[115]Yang H, Huang H-J. Analysis of the time-varying pricing of a bottleneck with elastic demand using optimal control theory[J]. Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, 1997, 31(6): 425-440.
[116]Hearn D W, Yildirim M B. A toll pricing framework for traffic assignment problems with elastic demand[J]. Current trends in transportation and network analysis, 2002: 135.
[117]张好智,高自友,张贝.环境目标下城市交通综合网络设计的优化模型及求解算法[J].土木工程学报,2006,39(11)：114-119.
[118]黄海军.交通行为建模—问题与机会[J].交通运输系统工程与信息,2002(01)： 23-29.
[119]计量经济学方法(第四版)[M]Jack Johnston&John DiNardo (2002),中国经济出版社.
[120]金安,毛保华,邹良东交通方式选择模型与应用研究[J],内蒙古公路与运输,1997(01)：33-35.
[121]赵鹏,藤原章正,杉惠赖宁SP调查方法在交通预测中的应用[J],北方交通大学学报,2000(06)：29-32.
[122]喻翔.毛敏,刘建兵城市交通需求预测组合模型的研究[J],西南交通大学学报,2003(01)：75-79.
[123]罗建国.旅客交通行为分析理论与模型[J].公路与汽运,2002(03)：72-73.
[124陈学武王炜.城市客运交通方式结构预测的层次分析法[J].东南大学学报,1998(03)：23-26
[125]过秀成,王炜.基于居民出行决策的轻轨客流预测方法研究[J].东南大学学报,1998(04)：107-112.
[126]南敬林、京沪通道旅客行为时间价值研究[J].铁道经济研究,2002(03)：37-38
[127]曲大义,于仲臣,庄劲松,刘同友,杨明,武勇.苏州市居民出行特征分析及交通发展对策研究[J].东南大学学报,2001(03)：118-123
[128]过秀成,王炜,吕慎基于合作竞争类OD的轨道客流预测方法研究[J].公路交通科技,2000(04)：57-60
[129]李旭宏.城市交通方式预测实用方法研究[J].东南大学学报,1997(06)：138-141
[130]李彬,杨东援,孙四平,竞争性公共交通客运需求预测模型[J].预测,2001(04)：72-74.
[131]王庆云.交通运输与经济发展的内在关系[J].综合运输,2003(7)：21-26.
[132]帅斌,霍娅敏.运输经济学[M].成都：西南交通大学出版社,2009.
[133]左辅强,沈中伟.高铁时代[M].北京：科学出版社,2012.
[134]贾顺平.交通运输经济学[M].北京：人民交通出版社,2011.