中国居民储蓄率的影响因素研究
|
摘要
改革开放以来,中国经济取得了令人瞩目的高增长,但也存在着明显的结构性矛盾。其中的一个突出表现就是最终消费率在近年来呈现出明显的下降趋势。与此相对应的则是中国居民的高储蓄行为,几乎所有的研究均显示,中国的居民储蓄率高于世界上绝大多数国家和地区。高储蓄、低消费的特点导致中国的经济增长长期依靠投资和出口的拉动,这不仅增加了经济运行的内在不稳定性,而且还可能带来一系列深层次问题。因此对中国居民储蓄率的影响因素进行全面而系统的研究已经成为学术界和政策制定者共同关心的问题。
本文在生命周期—持久收入假说和预防性储蓄理论的基础上,结合中国转型经济的现实背景对中国居民储蓄率的影响因素进行了理论分析。并使用2006年中国综合社会调查数据(CGSS2006)并通过稳健的最小二乘法、可行的广义最小二乘法(FGLS)和分位数回归(Quantile Regression)的方法,以及1997-2008年的分省面板数据和系统广义矩(System GMM)的估计方法,分别从微观数据和宏观数据的角度进行了相关的实证检验,最后提出了相关的政策建议。本文的主要结论如下：
(1)收入水平的上升和收入差距是中国居民高储蓄的重要原因。基于微观数据的计量检验显示：城乡居民的储蓄率与其持久收入和暂时收入之间均表现出显著的正相关关系,并且储蓄率对暂时性收入变化的反应更加敏感,而收入水平尤其是暂时收入对农村居民储蓄率的影响要大于城镇居民。基于宏观数据的研究不仅也得出了与此基本一致的结论,并且进一步发现：中国居民的储蓄行为具有显著的惯性,即当期的高储蓄往往存在着明显的长期效应。此外,本文还发现收入水平较高的家庭,其储蓄率也较高,收入差距的扩大将显著的提高中国居民的总体储蓄率。尽管中国居民储蓄的总体水平较高,但其中的绝大多数却集中于少数高收入家庭,居民之间储蓄差距甚至已经超过了收入差距。
(2)不确定性因素对中国居民储蓄率同样具有重要影响。本文主要使用社会保险(主要是养老和医疗保险)的参与情况界定了城乡居民在日常生活中所面临的不确定性。无论是使用微观数据还是宏观数据,本文均发现：参加养老保险和医疗保险可以通过降低相关的不确定性,并显著降低居民的储蓄率。相比较而言,在考虑不确定性与预防性动机以后,本文的模型对城乡居民储蓄率的解释力度出现了明显的上升。而分位数回归的结果进一步显示：LC-PIH理论较为适合储蓄率处于中、低分位数上的居民储蓄行为；而处于较高分位数上的居民储蓄水平更多地受到不确定性因素的影响。并且从宏观的角度来看,政府公共支出中社会保障补助支出的比例与储蓄率之间也存在着显著的负相关关系。
(3)人口年龄结构对中国居民储蓄率的总体影响比较微弱。与建立在西方社会经济条件下的倒U型的生命周期特征不同。本文基于微观数据的研究发现：中国的居民储蓄率存在着U型特征,即随着户主年龄的增加,居民储蓄率表现出先下降、后上升的趋势,尤其是考虑了家庭的教育、医疗支出以后,这一特征表现的更加明显。因此人口年龄结构对中国居民储蓄率的影响在总体上难以准确判断,而人口老龄化的过程只不过是一个高储蓄群体去取代另一个高储蓄群体,对居民储蓄率的总体影响可能比较微弱。而本文基于1997～2008年分省面板数据的研究进一步发现：少儿抚养比分别与城镇和农村居民的储蓄率之间存在着显著的负相关和正相关关系,老年抚养比没有城乡居民的储蓄率产生显著影响。而在总体上,人口年龄结构相关指标与居民储蓄率之间均没有表现出显著关系。
(4)城乡二元结构显著提高了中国居民的储蓄率。由于历史和现实的原因,中国的社会、经济发展具有典型的城乡二元特征,城乡居民之间不仅存在着明显的收入差距,而农村中的公共产品和服务在也相对缺乏。本文的研究发现：教育和医疗支出对农村居民储蓄水平的影响程度明显高于城镇；而城乡二元结构特征总体上对居民储蓄率产生了显著影响,其中城市化水平与居民储蓄率之间存在着显著的负相关关系,而城乡居民收入差距的扩大则显著提高了居民储蓄率。
(5)住宅状况对中国城镇居民的高储蓄存在显著影响。结合中国住宅供给制度的市场化改革以及近年来住宅价格的快速上升,本文从住宅获取方式、住宅价值的高低等角度对住宅状况影响居民储蓄率的机理进行了理论分析和实证检验,结果发现：市场化和非市场化的自有住宅获取方式分别与城镇家庭储蓄率之间存在显著的正相关和负相关关系,并且这一关系随着家庭住宅价值的上升而增强,考虑到大多数中国城镇家庭是通过市场化方式获取自有住房的,因此拥有住宅在总体上提高了城镇居民的储蓄率；此外,市场化的住宅获取方式显著的提高了中青年家庭的储蓄率,非市场化的住宅获取方式却显著的降低了中青年家庭的储蓄水平,这说明近年来高涨的住宅价格给中青年家庭带来了较为沉重的经济负担,但不同住宅获取方式对中老年家庭的储蓄率没有显著影响。
(6)非农就业的发展显著降低了农村居民储蓄率。就业的非农化是近些年来中国农村中发生的最重要的变化之一。本文认为,非农就业的发展不仅会改变农民的收入水平和稳定性,甚至可能会影响农民的储蓄习惯和文化,从而对农村居民储蓄率产生重要影响。本文从外出务工和非农经营等两种最重要的非农就业形式出发,在对非农就业行为的内生性进行控制的情况下,通过实证研究发现：外出务工、非农经营等非农就业行为均显著的降低了农村居民储蓄率；其中外出务工对农户储蓄率的影响程度明显大于非农经营。尽管外出务工、非农经营导致农村居民教育、医疗支出的明显上升,但对基本生活费支出的增长效应相对较小。
Since reform and opening, China has made remarkable high economic growth, but there are obvious structural problems. One of the outstanding performance is the final consumption rate showing downward trend in recent years. Corresponding to this is the high household savings rate in China, almost all studies show that China's household savings rate is higher than most countries and regions. High savings, low consumption characteristics result means Chinese economic growth driven by investment and exports in long run, which not only increases the inherent instability of economic performance, but also may bring a deeper problem. Therefore, the comprehensive and systematic research about the determinants of household savings rate in China has become a common concern on academic and policy-makers.
In this paper, on the base of life cycle-permanent income hypothesis(LC-PIH) and precautionary savings theory, we analysis the determinants of household savings rate in China on the background of transition economies, then, the paper use the China General Social Survey data in China in 2006 (CGSS2006) and the estimation of robust OLS, FGLS and quantile regression, and use Provincial panel data from 1997 to 2008 and the estimation of system GMM, through empirical tests on micro and macro data, respectively, some conclusions are drawn as followed:
(1) The rise in income and income disparities is an important reason for high household savings rate in China. Empirical tests base on data CGSS2006 showed that: there is significant positive correlation between the household saving rate in urban and rural with permanent income and transitory income and saving rate is more sensitive to temporary income change, especially temporary income had more greater affection on rural household savings rate than urban household. The study based on macro data also obtained consistent conclusion, and further found that:the saving behavior of Chinese household had significant inertia, the current high savings are often obvious long-term effects. In addition, we also found that household with higher income had high saving rate, the income gap expansion will significantly increase the overall saving rate in China. That, the vast majority saving are concentrated in a few high-income household, the gap between household saving is even more than the income gap.
(2) Uncertainty also has an important influence on household saving rate. This paper defined uncertainty as the participation of social insurance (mainly pension and health insurance). Whether the use of micro or macro data, we also found:the participation of pension insurance and medical insurance can reduce the uncertainty, and significantly reduce household saving rates. After considering the future uncertainty and precautionary motives, the interpretation of model on urban and rural household saving rate has significantly increased. The quantile regression results show:LC-PIH is more appropriate in the household saving rate of the low and median quantile; and the precautionary saving theory is more appropriate in the high quantile. And empirical tests on macro data shown that public expenditure on social security benefits significantly reduce household saving rates.
(3) Population age structure has an relatively weak influence on household saving rate in China. Contrast on inverted U-shape characteristics of the life cycle in Western. Based on micro data study found that:there is a U-shape characteristics in China's household saving rate, that means:as head of household age increased, the household saving rate first decline, then rise, especially after considering the family's education, medical expenses, the U-shape characteristics is more evident. Therefore, there is difficultly in accurately judge impact of population age structure on China's household saving rate in general, and during the process of population aging, one high saving groups would replace another, the overall household saving rate maybe be stable. The empirical tests on provincial panel data further found that:children dependency ratio has significantly the negative and positive correlation with urban and rural household saving rate, respectively, aged dependency ratio has no significantly correlation with the urban and rural household saving rate. In general, the indicators of population age structure has no significantly impact on household saving rate.
(4) Urban-rural dual structure significantly improves the household saving rate in China. Due to historical and practical reasons, not only there is income gap between urban and rural household, but also rural public goods and services are relatively scarce. This study found that:the expenditure on education and health care has more significantly impact on rural household saving than urban; and urban-rural dual structure characteristics had a significant impact the whole saving rate, there is a significant negative correlation between urbanization with household saving rates and the widening in income gap between urban and rural would significantly increased household saving rate.
(5) Housing conditions have significant effect on urban household high saving. After considering market-oriented reforms of housing supply system in China and the rapid rise in house prices in recent years, This paper discusses the mechanism of acquisition mode of house property, house wealth affecting household saving and empirical findings are:there are significantly positive correlation and negative correlation between market-oriented, non-market oriented approach to obtain own housing and urban household saving rate respectively, and owning house would rise saving rate because most of the Chinese urban households got their own houses by way of market-oriented approach. Besides, market-oriented approach of obtaining own housing would rise young family's savings rate, and non-market-oriented way of obtaining own housing has significantly reduced the young family's saving rate, but different ways of obtaining own housing would have no significant effect on the old household saving rate.
(6)The off-farm employment significantly reduces the household saving rate in rural China. off-farm employment is the most important change in rural China in recent years. This paper argues that the development of non-agricultural employment will not only change the income levels and stability of peasants, and may even affect their the saving habits and culture, thereby have an important impact on rural household saving rate. this paper investigated the relationship between household saving ratio with the two most important forms of off-farm employment:migrant workers and off-farm business. After controlling the endogenous off-farm employment, the main conclusions are as follows:First, migrant workers, off-farm business significantly reduces the saving rate in rural household; Second, working as urban-rural migrant save more than off-farm business significantly; Third, off-farm employment increased expenditure of education, health care significantly in rural household, but the growth of basic living expenses are relatively small.
本文在生命周期—持久收入假说和预防性储蓄理论的基础上,结合中国转型经济的现实背景对中国居民储蓄率的影响因素进行了理论分析。并使用2006年中国综合社会调查数据(CGSS2006)并通过稳健的最小二乘法、可行的广义最小二乘法(FGLS)和分位数回归(Quantile Regression)的方法,以及1997-2008年的分省面板数据和系统广义矩(System GMM)的估计方法,分别从微观数据和宏观数据的角度进行了相关的实证检验,最后提出了相关的政策建议。本文的主要结论如下：
(1)收入水平的上升和收入差距是中国居民高储蓄的重要原因。基于微观数据的计量检验显示：城乡居民的储蓄率与其持久收入和暂时收入之间均表现出显著的正相关关系,并且储蓄率对暂时性收入变化的反应更加敏感,而收入水平尤其是暂时收入对农村居民储蓄率的影响要大于城镇居民。基于宏观数据的研究不仅也得出了与此基本一致的结论,并且进一步发现：中国居民的储蓄行为具有显著的惯性,即当期的高储蓄往往存在着明显的长期效应。此外,本文还发现收入水平较高的家庭,其储蓄率也较高,收入差距的扩大将显著的提高中国居民的总体储蓄率。尽管中国居民储蓄的总体水平较高,但其中的绝大多数却集中于少数高收入家庭,居民之间储蓄差距甚至已经超过了收入差距。
(2)不确定性因素对中国居民储蓄率同样具有重要影响。本文主要使用社会保险(主要是养老和医疗保险)的参与情况界定了城乡居民在日常生活中所面临的不确定性。无论是使用微观数据还是宏观数据,本文均发现：参加养老保险和医疗保险可以通过降低相关的不确定性,并显著降低居民的储蓄率。相比较而言,在考虑不确定性与预防性动机以后,本文的模型对城乡居民储蓄率的解释力度出现了明显的上升。而分位数回归的结果进一步显示：LC-PIH理论较为适合储蓄率处于中、低分位数上的居民储蓄行为；而处于较高分位数上的居民储蓄水平更多地受到不确定性因素的影响。并且从宏观的角度来看,政府公共支出中社会保障补助支出的比例与储蓄率之间也存在着显著的负相关关系。
(3)人口年龄结构对中国居民储蓄率的总体影响比较微弱。与建立在西方社会经济条件下的倒U型的生命周期特征不同。本文基于微观数据的研究发现：中国的居民储蓄率存在着U型特征,即随着户主年龄的增加,居民储蓄率表现出先下降、后上升的趋势,尤其是考虑了家庭的教育、医疗支出以后,这一特征表现的更加明显。因此人口年龄结构对中国居民储蓄率的影响在总体上难以准确判断,而人口老龄化的过程只不过是一个高储蓄群体去取代另一个高储蓄群体,对居民储蓄率的总体影响可能比较微弱。而本文基于1997～2008年分省面板数据的研究进一步发现：少儿抚养比分别与城镇和农村居民的储蓄率之间存在着显著的负相关和正相关关系,老年抚养比没有城乡居民的储蓄率产生显著影响。而在总体上,人口年龄结构相关指标与居民储蓄率之间均没有表现出显著关系。
(4)城乡二元结构显著提高了中国居民的储蓄率。由于历史和现实的原因,中国的社会、经济发展具有典型的城乡二元特征,城乡居民之间不仅存在着明显的收入差距,而农村中的公共产品和服务在也相对缺乏。本文的研究发现：教育和医疗支出对农村居民储蓄水平的影响程度明显高于城镇；而城乡二元结构特征总体上对居民储蓄率产生了显著影响,其中城市化水平与居民储蓄率之间存在着显著的负相关关系,而城乡居民收入差距的扩大则显著提高了居民储蓄率。
(5)住宅状况对中国城镇居民的高储蓄存在显著影响。结合中国住宅供给制度的市场化改革以及近年来住宅价格的快速上升,本文从住宅获取方式、住宅价值的高低等角度对住宅状况影响居民储蓄率的机理进行了理论分析和实证检验,结果发现：市场化和非市场化的自有住宅获取方式分别与城镇家庭储蓄率之间存在显著的正相关和负相关关系,并且这一关系随着家庭住宅价值的上升而增强,考虑到大多数中国城镇家庭是通过市场化方式获取自有住房的,因此拥有住宅在总体上提高了城镇居民的储蓄率；此外,市场化的住宅获取方式显著的提高了中青年家庭的储蓄率,非市场化的住宅获取方式却显著的降低了中青年家庭的储蓄水平,这说明近年来高涨的住宅价格给中青年家庭带来了较为沉重的经济负担,但不同住宅获取方式对中老年家庭的储蓄率没有显著影响。
(6)非农就业的发展显著降低了农村居民储蓄率。就业的非农化是近些年来中国农村中发生的最重要的变化之一。本文认为,非农就业的发展不仅会改变农民的收入水平和稳定性,甚至可能会影响农民的储蓄习惯和文化,从而对农村居民储蓄率产生重要影响。本文从外出务工和非农经营等两种最重要的非农就业形式出发,在对非农就业行为的内生性进行控制的情况下,通过实证研究发现：外出务工、非农经营等非农就业行为均显著的降低了农村居民储蓄率；其中外出务工对农户储蓄率的影响程度明显大于非农经营。尽管外出务工、非农经营导致农村居民教育、医疗支出的明显上升,但对基本生活费支出的增长效应相对较小。
Since reform and opening, China has made remarkable high economic growth, but there are obvious structural problems. One of the outstanding performance is the final consumption rate showing downward trend in recent years. Corresponding to this is the high household savings rate in China, almost all studies show that China's household savings rate is higher than most countries and regions. High savings, low consumption characteristics result means Chinese economic growth driven by investment and exports in long run, which not only increases the inherent instability of economic performance, but also may bring a deeper problem. Therefore, the comprehensive and systematic research about the determinants of household savings rate in China has become a common concern on academic and policy-makers.
In this paper, on the base of life cycle-permanent income hypothesis(LC-PIH) and precautionary savings theory, we analysis the determinants of household savings rate in China on the background of transition economies, then, the paper use the China General Social Survey data in China in 2006 (CGSS2006) and the estimation of robust OLS, FGLS and quantile regression, and use Provincial panel data from 1997 to 2008 and the estimation of system GMM, through empirical tests on micro and macro data, respectively, some conclusions are drawn as followed:
(1) The rise in income and income disparities is an important reason for high household savings rate in China. Empirical tests base on data CGSS2006 showed that: there is significant positive correlation between the household saving rate in urban and rural with permanent income and transitory income and saving rate is more sensitive to temporary income change, especially temporary income had more greater affection on rural household savings rate than urban household. The study based on macro data also obtained consistent conclusion, and further found that:the saving behavior of Chinese household had significant inertia, the current high savings are often obvious long-term effects. In addition, we also found that household with higher income had high saving rate, the income gap expansion will significantly increase the overall saving rate in China. That, the vast majority saving are concentrated in a few high-income household, the gap between household saving is even more than the income gap.
(2) Uncertainty also has an important influence on household saving rate. This paper defined uncertainty as the participation of social insurance (mainly pension and health insurance). Whether the use of micro or macro data, we also found:the participation of pension insurance and medical insurance can reduce the uncertainty, and significantly reduce household saving rates. After considering the future uncertainty and precautionary motives, the interpretation of model on urban and rural household saving rate has significantly increased. The quantile regression results show:LC-PIH is more appropriate in the household saving rate of the low and median quantile; and the precautionary saving theory is more appropriate in the high quantile. And empirical tests on macro data shown that public expenditure on social security benefits significantly reduce household saving rates.
(3) Population age structure has an relatively weak influence on household saving rate in China. Contrast on inverted U-shape characteristics of the life cycle in Western. Based on micro data study found that:there is a U-shape characteristics in China's household saving rate, that means:as head of household age increased, the household saving rate first decline, then rise, especially after considering the family's education, medical expenses, the U-shape characteristics is more evident. Therefore, there is difficultly in accurately judge impact of population age structure on China's household saving rate in general, and during the process of population aging, one high saving groups would replace another, the overall household saving rate maybe be stable. The empirical tests on provincial panel data further found that:children dependency ratio has significantly the negative and positive correlation with urban and rural household saving rate, respectively, aged dependency ratio has no significantly correlation with the urban and rural household saving rate. In general, the indicators of population age structure has no significantly impact on household saving rate.
(4) Urban-rural dual structure significantly improves the household saving rate in China. Due to historical and practical reasons, not only there is income gap between urban and rural household, but also rural public goods and services are relatively scarce. This study found that:the expenditure on education and health care has more significantly impact on rural household saving than urban; and urban-rural dual structure characteristics had a significant impact the whole saving rate, there is a significant negative correlation between urbanization with household saving rates and the widening in income gap between urban and rural would significantly increased household saving rate.
(5) Housing conditions have significant effect on urban household high saving. After considering market-oriented reforms of housing supply system in China and the rapid rise in house prices in recent years, This paper discusses the mechanism of acquisition mode of house property, house wealth affecting household saving and empirical findings are:there are significantly positive correlation and negative correlation between market-oriented, non-market oriented approach to obtain own housing and urban household saving rate respectively, and owning house would rise saving rate because most of the Chinese urban households got their own houses by way of market-oriented approach. Besides, market-oriented approach of obtaining own housing would rise young family's savings rate, and non-market-oriented way of obtaining own housing has significantly reduced the young family's saving rate, but different ways of obtaining own housing would have no significant effect on the old household saving rate.
(6)The off-farm employment significantly reduces the household saving rate in rural China. off-farm employment is the most important change in rural China in recent years. This paper argues that the development of non-agricultural employment will not only change the income levels and stability of peasants, and may even affect their the saving habits and culture, thereby have an important impact on rural household saving rate. this paper investigated the relationship between household saving ratio with the two most important forms of off-farm employment:migrant workers and off-farm business. After controlling the endogenous off-farm employment, the main conclusions are as follows:First, migrant workers, off-farm business significantly reduces the saving rate in rural household; Second, working as urban-rural migrant save more than off-farm business significantly; Third, off-farm employment increased expenditure of education, health care significantly in rural household, but the growth of basic living expenses are relatively small.
引文
[1]艾春荣、汪伟.中国居民储蓄率的变化及其原因分析[J].湖北经济学院学报,2008,(6):5—10.
[2]保罗·萨缪尔森、威廉·诺德豪斯.宏观经济学[M].北京：华夏出版社,1999.
[3]蔡昉.劳动力流动、择业与自组织过程中的经济理性[J].中国社会科学,1997,(4):127—138.
[4]蔡昉.中国经济面临的转折及其对发展和改革的挑战[J].中国社会科学,2007,(3).
[5]陈学彬、章妍.医疗保障制度对家庭消费储蓄行为的影响一个动态模拟研究[J].上海财经大学学报,2007,(12)：55—62.
[6]陈玉宇、邢春冰.农村工业化以及人力资本在农村劳动力市场中的角色[J].经济研究,2004,(8)：105—116.
[7]德怀特.帕金斯.中国经济高速增长：解释与展望[J].江海学刊,2007,(1)
[8]邓翔、李锴.中国城镇居民预防性储蓄成因分析[J].南开经济研究,2009,(2):42—57.
[9]杜海韬、邓翔.经济转型中收入不确定性与储蓄行为研究—来自中国农村家庭面板数据的证据[J].天府新论,2009,(5)：18—24.
[10]段成荣、杨舸、张斐、卢雪和.改革开放以来我国流动人口变动的九大趋势[J].人口研究,2008,(6)：30—-43.
[11]多恩布什、费希尔、斯塔兹.宏观经济学[M].中国人民大学出版社,2005.
[12]樊纲、余根钱.体制改革时期的储蓄增长—对近年来中国城镇居民储蓄增长原因的分析[J].金融研究,2000,(9)：23-31.
[13]富兰克·H·奈特.风险、不确定性和利润[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005.
[14]付文林.住房消费、收入分配与中国的消费需求不足[J].经济学家,2010,(2):55—60.
[15]高梦滔.持久收入与农户储蓄：基于八省微观面板数据的经验研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008,(4)：40—52.
[16]高梦滔.新型农村合作医疗与农户储蓄：基于8省微观面板数据的经验研究[J].世界经济,2010,(4)：121—133.
[17]国务院发展研究中心课题组.农民工就业总体态势与政策因应：对19个省(区、市)107个村的调查[J].改革,2010,(6):5-24.
[18]杭斌、申春兰.中国农户预防性储蓄行为的实证研究[J].中国农村经济,2005,(3):44—52.
[19]杭斌.习惯形成下的农户缓冲储备行为[J].经济研究,2009,(1)
[20]贺菊煌.经济增长模型中的储蓄率内生化问题[J].经济研究,2005,(8)
[21]贺菊煌.人口红利有多大[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006,(8)
[22]何立新、封进、佐藤宏.养老保险改革对家庭储蓄率的影响：中国的经验证据[J].经济研究,2008,(10)
[23]何新华、曹永福.从资金流量表看中国的高储蓄率[J].国际经济评论,2005,(11):58—61.
[24]凯恩斯.就业、利息与货币通论(中译本)[M].商务印书馆,1999.
[25]李培林.流动民工的社会网络和社会地位[J].社会学研究,1996,(4):42—52.
[26]李文星、徐长生、艾春荣.中国人口年龄结构和居民消费：1989-2004[J].经济研究,2008(7)：118—129.
[27]李焰.关于利率与我国居民储蓄关系的探讨[J].经济研究,1999(11)
[28]李扬、殷剑峰.中国高储蓄率问题探究—1992—2003年中国资金流量表的分析[J].经济研究,2007,(6)：14—26.
[29]李扬、殷剑峰、陈洪波.中国：高储蓄、高投资和高增长研究[J].财贸经济,2007,(1).
[30]李燕凌、李立清.新型农村合作医疗农户参与行为分析[J].中国农村经济,2009,(9):63—75.
[31]李勇辉、温娇秀.我国城镇居民预防性储蓄行为与支出的不确定性关系[J].管理世界,2005,(5)：14—18.
[32]李宗华.我国目前消费需求不足的原因及对策[J].山东大学学报,2004,(5):92—96.
[33]林坚、周菲、黄斯涵.不确定状态下的农户预防性储蓄行为研究—以浙江省为例[J].农业技术经济,2010,(3)：4—13.
[34]刘明志.中国的国内储蓄(1978-1996)：趋势、构成和决定因素[J].金融研究,1998,(5)：6-10.
[35]刘易斯.二元经济论(中译本)[M].北京经济学院出版社,1989.
[36]刘兆博、马树才.基于微观面板数据的中国农民预防性储蓄研究[J].世界经济,2007,(2)：40—49.
[37]龙志和、周浩明.中国城镇居民预防性储蓄实证研究[J].经济研究,2000,(11):33—38.
[38]罗楚亮：经济转轨、不确定性与城镇居民消费行为[J].经济研究,2004,(4):100—106.
[39]罗楚亮、李实、赵人伟：我国居民的财产分布及其国际比较[J].经济学家,2009,(9):90—99.
[40]骆祚炎.支出增长预期对居民消费和储蓄的影响分析—兼评预防性储蓄理论的不足[J].山西财经大学学报,2007,(8)：33—38.
[41]孟昕.中国城市的失业、消费平滑和预防性储蓄[J].经济社会体制比较,2001,(6):40—50.
[42]齐天翔.转轨时期的中国居民储蓄研究经济研究[J].经济研究,2000(9).
[43]乔虹、宋宇.中国的储蓄率及其长期走势[J].金融发展评论,2010,(1):17—35.
[44]任若恩、覃筱.中美两国可比居民储蓄率的计量：1992—2001[J].经济研究,2006,(3):67—81.
[45]沈坤荣.新增长理论与中国经济增长[M].南京大学出版社,2003
[46]沈坤荣.中国经济的转型与增长[M].南京大学出版社,2008
[47]沈坤荣.体制转型期的中国经济增长[M].南京大学出版社,1999
[48]申朴、刘康兵.中国城镇居民消费行为过度敏感性的经验分析：兼论不确定性、流动性约束与利率[J].世界经济,2003(1),61-66.
[49]施建淮、朱海婷.中国城市居民预防性储蓄及预防性动机强度：1999—2003[J].经济研究,2004,(10)：66—74.
[50]史清华、陈凯.欠发达地区农户借贷行为的实证分析[J].农业经济问题,2002,(10).
[51]宋铮.中国居民储蓄行为研究[J].金融研究,1999,(6):64—69.
[52]苏良军、何一峰、金赛男.暂时收入真正影响消费吗?—来自中国农村居民面板数据的证据[J].管理世界,2005,(7)：26—30.
[53]苏基溶、廖进中.中国城镇居民储蓄的影响因素研究：基于三类储蓄动机的实证分析[J].经济评论,2010,(1)：58—64.
[54]孙凤、王玉华.中国居民消费行为研究[J].统计研究,2001(4)：24-30.
[55]陶传平.我国消费市场低迷的原因及对策[J].山东社会科学,2001,(5):96—98.
[56]万广华、史清华、汤树梅.转型经济中农户储蓄行为：中国农村的实证研究[J].经济研究,2003,(5).
[57]万广华、张茵、牛建高：流动性约束、不确定性与中国居民消费[J].经济研究,2001,(11)：35—44.
[58]王德文、蔡昉、张学辉.人口转变论的储蓄效应和增长效应[J].人口研究,2004,(5):2—11.
[59]王美艳.中国城市劳动力市场上的性别工资差异[J].经济研究,2005,(12):35—44.
[60]王小鲁、樊纲.中国经济增长的可持续性[M].经济科学出版社,2000.
[61]王信.我国居民收入高增长时期的储蓄存款分析[J].经济科学,1996,(5):24-31.
[62]汪伟.中国居民储蓄率的决定因素[J].财经研究,2008,(3)：53-64.
[63]王毅、石春华.中美储蓄率比较从核算口径到经济含义[J].金融研究,2010,(1)：12—30.
[64]魏杰、沈坤荣.居民储蓄分析[M].经济科学出版社,1995.
[65]翁媛媛、高汝熹、饶文军.中国高储蓄率部门特征、成因及对策[J].经济学家,2010,(3)：41—49.
[66]谢平.中国个人储蓄行为分析(上)[J].金融研究,1993,(8):23—27.
[67]谢平.中国个人储蓄行为分析(下)[J].金融研究,1993,(9):17—24.
[68]谢平.经济制度转执中岭个人储蓄行为[J].经济社会体制比较,1997,(1):15—19.
[69]亚当.斯密.国民财富的性质和原因的研究(中译本)[M].商务印书馆,1972.
[70]杨汝岱、陈斌开.高等教育改革、预防性储蓄与居民消费行为[J].经济研究,2009,(8):113—124.
[71]杨汝岱、朱诗娥：公平与效率不可兼得吗?——基于居民边际消费倾向的研究[J].经济研究,2007,(12).
[72]杨天宇、侯杞松.收入再分配对我国居民总消费需求的扩张效应[J].经济学家,2009,(9)：39—45.
[73]伊特韦尔等编.新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典[M].北京：经济科学出版社,1992.
[74].易行健、王俊海、易君健.预防性储蓄动机强度的时序变化与地区差异—基于中国农村居民的实证研究[J].经济研究,2008,(2):119—131
[75]尹蔚民. 社会保障制度建设存在四个薄弱环节http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2010-08/23/c 12473623.htm
[76]余根钱.居民储蓄持续增长对积累的影响[J].统计研究,1992,(3)：77—78.
[77]袁志刚、宋铮.人口年龄结构、养老保险制度与最优储蓄率[J].经济研究,2000,(11)
[78]袁志刚、朱国林.消费理论中的收入分配与总消费—及对中国消费不振的分析[J].中国社会科学,2002,(2)：69—76.
[79]臧旭恒.中国消费函数分析[M].上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1994年。
[80]臧旭恒、孙文祥.城乡居民消费结构：基于ELES模型和AIDS模型的比较分析[J].山东大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2003,(6):122—126.
[81]臧旭恒、张继海.收入分配对中国城镇居民消费需求影响的实证分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,2005,(6)：5—10.
[82]张明.中国额高储蓄：特征事实与部门分析[M].中国金融出版社,2009
[83]张士斌、徐天祥.社会保障、不确定性与城镇居民储蓄[J].云南财经大学学报,2010,(1)：60—66.
[84]赵耀辉.中国农村劳动力流动及教育在其中的作用—以四川省为基础的研究[J].经济研究,1997,(2)：37—42.
[85]赵志君.我国居民储蓄率的变动和因素分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1998,(8):23—26.
[86]周其仁.机会与能力—中国农村劳动力的就业和流动[J].管理世界,1997,(5):81—100.
[87]周绍杰.中国城市居民的预防性储蓄行为研究[J].世界经济,2010,(8):112—122.
[88]周绍杰、张俊森、李宏彬.中国城市居民的家庭收入、消费和储蓄行为：一个基于组群的实证研究[J].经济学(季刊),2009,(4)
[89]周晓艳、汪德华、李均鹏.新型农村合作医疗对中国农村居民储蓄行为影响德实证分析[J].经济科学,2011,(2)：63—76.
[90]朱国林、范建勇、严燕.中国的消费不振与收入分配：理论和数据[J].经济研究,2002,(8)：72—80.
[91]朱农、钟水映.农村家庭参与非农业活动的“推力”与“拉力”分析[J].中国人口科学,2007,(3)：11—21.
[92]朱农.离土还是离乡?—中国农村劳动力地域流动和职业流动的关系分析[J].世界经济文汇,2004,(1)：53—-63.
[93]中国人民大学中国调查与数据中心.中国综合社会调查报告[M].中国社会出版社,2009年.
[94]中国人民银行研究局课题组.中国国民储蓄和居民储蓄的影响因素[J].经济研究,1999,(5)：3-10
[95]朱信凯：流动性约束、不确定性与中国农户消费行为分析[J].统计研究,2005,(2):38—-42.
[96]朱信凯、彭廷军.新型农村合作医疗中的“逆向选择”问题：理论研究与实证分析[J].管理世界,2009,(1)：79—88.
[1]Allais, Olivier; Cadiou, Loic, Dees, Stephane."Defining Consumption Behavior in a Multi-CountryModel."www.cepii. fr/anglaisgraph/workpap/pdf/2001/wp01-02. pdf. acc. Apr.7,2002.
[2]Altonji, Joseph G., Siow, A. "Testing the Response of Consumption to Income Changes With Panel Data," Quarterly Journal of Economy,1987.102(2), pp.293-328.
[3]Arellano, M., Bover, O. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of error Components Mod els", Journal of Econometrics,1995,68 (1)
[4]Arellano, M, Bond, S. "Some Test of Specification for Panel Data:Monte Carlo Evidence and Application to Employment Equations", Review of Economic Studies,1991,58 (2)
[5]Attanasio,O. P., Weber, Guglielmo. "Consumption Growth, the Interest Rate and Aggregation," Review of. Economic Studies.,1993,60(3), pp.631-49.
[6]Banerjee, Abhijit, Xin Meng, and Nancy Qian. "The Life Cycle Model and Household Savings: Micro Evidence from Urban China," mimeo, Yale University,2010.
[7]Banks, James, Richard Blundell and Sarah Tanner, "Is There a Retirement-Savings Puzzle?", American Economic Review,1998,88(4):769-788.
[8]Barro, Robert J. and Gary S. Becker, (1989). "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," Econometrica,1989,57(2), pp.481-501
[9]Bernank, Ben S. "Permanent Income, Liquidity, and Expenditure on Automobiles:Evidence from Panel Data," Quarterly Journal of Economy,1984,99(3), pp.587-614.
[10]Blundel, R., S Bond, "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models", Journal of Econometrics,1998,87 (1)
[11]Bosworth, B. Burtless, G. Sabelhaus, J. Poterba, J. M. and Summers, L.H. The Decline in Saving:Evidence from Household surveys. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No.1 (1991), pp.183-256
[12]Brauw, A. D., Huang, J. K. and Rozelle, S. The Evolution of Chinese Rural Labor Markets during the Reform, Journal of Comparative Economics,2002,30 (2):329-353.
[13]Browning, M. and Lusardi, A. "Household Saving:Micro Theories and Micro Facts". Journal of Economic Literature, Vol.34(1996), No.4:1797-1855.
[14]Browning, M., Crossley. Thomas. F. "The Life-Cycle Model of Consumption and Saving". Journal of Economic Perspectives,2001,15(3):3-22.
[15]Browning, M.; Ejrnas, M., "Consumption and Children", Mimeo, University of Copenhagen, 2000.
[16]Caballero, R. J., "Consumption Puzzles and Precautionary Savings", Journal of Monetary Economics,1990,25 (1), pp.113-136.
[17]Carroll, "How Does Future Income Affect Current Consumption?" Quarterly Journal of Economics,1994,CIX(1),pp.111-148.
[18]Carroll, Christopher D. "Precautionary Saving and the Marginal Propensity to Consume Out of Permanent Income". Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.56(2009),6:780-90.
[19]Carroll, C. D. Overland, J. and Weil, D. N. "Saving and growth with habit formation", The American Economic Review,2000,90(1).
[20]Carroll, D. Christopher, Rhee, Byung-Kun, and Rhee, Changyong. "Does Cultural Origin Affect Saving Behavior? Evidence from Immigrants". Economic Development and Cultural Change,1999,48 (1):33-50.
[21]Carroll, C. D; Samwick, A. A. "How important Is Precautionary Saving?". The Review of Economics and Statistics,1998 (8):410-419.
[22]Carroll, C.; Weil, D, "Saving and Growth:A Reinterpretation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,1994,40, pp.133-92
[23]Carroll, C. and L. Summers, (1991), "Consumption growth parallels income growth:Some new evidence.", in B.D. Bernheim and J.B. Shoven, (Eds) National Saving and Economic Performance, Chicago University Press for NBER, Chicago,305-43.
[24]Chadwick C. Curtis, Steven Lugauer, Nelson C. Mark:Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China, NBER Working Paper 16828,2011.
[25]Chamon, M., Prasad, E. Why are saving rates of urban households in China rising?. NBER Working Paper No.14546.
[26]Chamon, Marcos., Prasad, E. (2010). "Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?" American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics 2010,2:1,93-130.
[27]Chen, Chien-Liang, Kuan, Chung-Ming, and Lin, Chu-Chia. "Saving and housing of Taiwanese households:New evidence from quantile regression analyses". Journal of Housing Economics Vol.16 (2007):102-126
[28]Collins, S., "Saving behavior in ten developing countries". In:Bernheim, B.D., Shoven, J.B.(Eds.)., National Saving and Economic Performance. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1991,pp.349-372.
[29]Cutler, David M., "Public Policy for HealthCare", Alan J. Auerbach, Fiscal Policy:Lessons from Economic Research, MIT Press,1997.
[30]Davies, J.. "Uncertainty, Consumption and Dissaving in Retirement," Journal of Political Economy,1981,89(3):561-577.
[31]Deaton, Angus, 'Understanding consumption", Oxford:Oxford University Press,1992.
[32]Deaton, Angus; Paxson. C., "Saving, Growth, and Aging in Taiwan," Studies in the Economics of Aging, NBER Project Report Series,1994, pp.331-357.
[33]Deaton, Angus, "Measuring Poverty in a Growing World," Review of Economics and Statistics,2005,87(1), pp.1-19.
[34]Dedah, C., Mishral, Ashok K. Permanent Income and the Importance of Precautionary Savings:An Instrumental Variable Approach. Selected Paper prepared for presentation at the American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meetings, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, July26-28,2009
[35]Duesenberry, J. S, "Income, Saving and the Theory of Consumer Behavior". Harvard University Press,1949.
[36]Dynan, K. E. "How Prudent are Consumers?", Journal of Political Economy,1993,101(6): 1104-1113.
[37]Dynan, K. E. "Habit Formation in Consumer Preferences:Evidence from Panel Data."The American Economic Review,2000,90(2):391-406.
[38]Dynan, K.E., Skinner, J. and Zeldes, S.P., "Do the rich save more?". Journal. Political. Economy.2004,112:397-444.
[39]Eberly, Janice C. "Adjustment of Consumers' Durables Stocks:Evidence from Automobile Purchases," Journal of Political Economy, June 1994,102(3),pp.403-36.
[40]Edwards, S., "Why Are Saving Rate So Different Across Countries?:An International Comparative Analysis". NBER Working Paper No.5097.
[41]Engelhardt, Gary V.,1996, "House Price and Home Owner Saving Behavior", Regional Science and Urban Economies,pp.313-336.
[42]Engelhardt, Gary V. "Consumption, Down Payments, and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Money, Credit, Banking, May 1996,28(2), pp.255-71.
[43]Friedman M. A theory of the consumption function. Princeton University Press,1957.
[44]Gourinchas, P.-O.; Parker. J. A. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle". Econometrica 2002,70(1),47-89.
[45]Guiso, L., Jappelli, T. and Terlizzese, D., "Earnings Uncertainty and Precautionary saving", Journal of Monetary Economics,1992,30, pp.307-337.
[46]Gupta, K., "Personal Saving in Developing Nations:Further Evidence". Economic Record, 1970,46,243-249.
[47]Loundes, H., Webster, E. The Determinants of Household Saving in Australia. Melbourne Institute Working Paper No.22/99,2002
[48]Hayashi, Fumio. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis and Consumption Durability:Analysis based on Japanese Panel Data," Quarterly Journal of Economy,1985,100(4), pp.1083-1113.
[49]Heien,Dale., Durham,Cathy. "A Test of the Habit Formation Hypothesis Using Household Data."The Review of Economics and Statistics,1991,Vol.73(2),pp.189-199.
[50]Horioka, C.; Wan, Junmin. The Determinants of Household Saving in China:A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data. NBER Working Paper No.12723.
[51]Horioka, C; Wan, Junmin. "How China Achieved World's Highest Household Savings Rate". Journal of Money, Credit & Banking,2007,12 (4):28-45.
[52]Leff, Nathanisl H. (1969), Dependency Rate and Saving Rate. American Economic Review. 59(5):886-896.
[53]Leff, Nathanisl H. (1971), Dependency Rate and Saving Rate:Reply. American Economic Review.61 (3):476-480.
[54]Leland, H.,1968, Saving and uncertainty:The precautionary demand for saving. Quarterly Journal of Economics,82, pp.465-73.
[55]Loayza, N. Lopez, H. Schmidt-Hebbel, K. and Serven, L. Saving in the world:Stylized Facts, November 1998
[56]Loayza, N. Schmidt-Hebbel, K. and Serven, L. "What drives private saving across the world?", Review of Economics and Statistics,2000,82(2)
[57]Ludwing, A. and Slok, T.2002,"The Impact of Changes in Stock Prices and House Prices on Consumption in OECD Countries", IMF Working Paper.
[58]Lusardi, A., "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption:Evidence from Two Panel Data Sets," J. Bus. Econ. Statist., Jan.1996,14(1),pp.81-90.
[59]Lusardi, A., "On the Importance of the Precautionary Saving Motive". American Economic Review,1998,88:449-453.
[60]Kazarosian, M., "Precautionary saving-A panel study". Review of Economics and Statistics,1997,79:241-47.
[61]Kimball, M. S., "Precautionary Savings in the Small and in the Large", Econometrica,1990, 58, pp.53-73.
[62]Koskela, Erkki; Viren. M, "Social Security and Household Saving in an International Cross Section," American Economic Review,1983,LⅩⅩⅢ,212-17.
[63]Kraay, A. "Household Saving in China". The World Bank Economic Review, 2000,14(3),:545-570.
[64]Kujis, L. "Investment and Saving in China". World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3633,2005.
[65]Kung, James. Kai-sing. Off-Farm Labor Markets and the Emergence of Land Rental Markets in Rural Chinal.Journal of Comparative Economics 30,395-414 (2002)
[66]Koenker, R., Bassett, G., "Regression Quantiles". Econometrica,1978.46,33-50.
[67]Koenker, R., Bassett, G., "Robust Tests for Heteroskedasticity Based on Regression Quantiles". Econometrica,1982,50,43-61.
[68]Michaelides, A,. "Buffer Stock Saving and Habit Formation. "personal. lse. ac. uk/michael3/ own/habinf. pdf.acc. Apr.13,2002
[69]Modigliani, F. and R. Brumberg, "Utility analysis and the consumption function:an interpretation of cross-section data", in Kurihara, K., (ed.) Post-Keynesian Economics, Rutgers University Press,1954,388-436
[70]Modigliani, F. and Cao, L. "The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis". Journal of Economic Literature, Vol.42(2004), No.1:145-170.
[71]Mohapatra, S. Rozelle, S. and Goodhue, Rachael. (2007). The Rise of Self-Employment in Rural China:Development or Distress?. World Development Vol.35, No.1, pp.163-181
[72]Paxson.C.H. "Using Weather Variability to Estimate Response of Savings to Transitory Income in Thailand". American Economic Review,1992,82:15-33.
[73]Poterba, J. M., "Stock Market Wealth and Consumption", Journal of Economic Perspectives,2000,14 (2):99-118.
[74]Ram, R. (1982), Dependency Rates and Aggregate Savings:A New International Cross-Section Study. American Economic Review.72 (3):537-544.
[75]Schmidt-Hebbel, K; Serven, L., "Does income inequality raise aggregate saving? ".Journal of Development Economics,2000,61:417-446
[76]Seckin, Aylin. " Consumption with Habit Formation. "Scientific Series,CIRANO,Oct. econpapers. hhs. se/paper/circirwor/2000s-39. htm.acc. Apr.11,2000.
[77]Skinner, J. S. (1996). Is housing wealth a sideshow? In Advances in the Economics of Aging, National Bureau of Economic Research Report, pp.241～268. Chicago, IL:University of Chicago Press.
[78]Skinner, J.,1988,"Risky Income, Life Cycle Consumption, and Precautionary Savings", Journal of Monetary Economics. Vol.22, pp.237-55.
[79]Staiger, D., Stock, J.H."Instrumental variables regression with weak instruments". NBER Working Paper 5151,1994.
[80]Thurow, L. "The Optimum Lifetime Distribution of Consumption Expenditure" American Economic Review,1969,59:324-330.
[81]Wang,Y. "Permanent income and wealth accumulation:A cross-sectional study of the Chinese urban and rural households". Journal of Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1995,43:523-550.
[82]Weil, D. N. The Saving of the Elderly in Micro and Macro Data.The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1994,109(1), pp.55-81.
[83]Wooldridge, J M. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, MIT Press,2002.
[2]保罗·萨缪尔森、威廉·诺德豪斯.宏观经济学[M].北京：华夏出版社,1999.
[3]蔡昉.劳动力流动、择业与自组织过程中的经济理性[J].中国社会科学,1997,(4):127—138.
[4]蔡昉.中国经济面临的转折及其对发展和改革的挑战[J].中国社会科学,2007,(3).
[5]陈学彬、章妍.医疗保障制度对家庭消费储蓄行为的影响一个动态模拟研究[J].上海财经大学学报,2007,(12)：55—62.
[6]陈玉宇、邢春冰.农村工业化以及人力资本在农村劳动力市场中的角色[J].经济研究,2004,(8)：105—116.
[7]德怀特.帕金斯.中国经济高速增长：解释与展望[J].江海学刊,2007,(1)
[8]邓翔、李锴.中国城镇居民预防性储蓄成因分析[J].南开经济研究,2009,(2):42—57.
[9]杜海韬、邓翔.经济转型中收入不确定性与储蓄行为研究—来自中国农村家庭面板数据的证据[J].天府新论,2009,(5)：18—24.
[10]段成荣、杨舸、张斐、卢雪和.改革开放以来我国流动人口变动的九大趋势[J].人口研究,2008,(6)：30—-43.
[11]多恩布什、费希尔、斯塔兹.宏观经济学[M].中国人民大学出版社,2005.
[12]樊纲、余根钱.体制改革时期的储蓄增长—对近年来中国城镇居民储蓄增长原因的分析[J].金融研究,2000,(9)：23-31.
[13]富兰克·H·奈特.风险、不确定性和利润[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2005.
[14]付文林.住房消费、收入分配与中国的消费需求不足[J].经济学家,2010,(2):55—60.
[15]高梦滔.持久收入与农户储蓄：基于八省微观面板数据的经验研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008,(4)：40—52.
[16]高梦滔.新型农村合作医疗与农户储蓄：基于8省微观面板数据的经验研究[J].世界经济,2010,(4)：121—133.
[17]国务院发展研究中心课题组.农民工就业总体态势与政策因应：对19个省(区、市)107个村的调查[J].改革,2010,(6):5-24.
[18]杭斌、申春兰.中国农户预防性储蓄行为的实证研究[J].中国农村经济,2005,(3):44—52.
[19]杭斌.习惯形成下的农户缓冲储备行为[J].经济研究,2009,(1)
[20]贺菊煌.经济增长模型中的储蓄率内生化问题[J].经济研究,2005,(8)
[21]贺菊煌.人口红利有多大[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2006,(8)
[22]何立新、封进、佐藤宏.养老保险改革对家庭储蓄率的影响：中国的经验证据[J].经济研究,2008,(10)
[23]何新华、曹永福.从资金流量表看中国的高储蓄率[J].国际经济评论,2005,(11):58—61.
[24]凯恩斯.就业、利息与货币通论(中译本)[M].商务印书馆,1999.
[25]李培林.流动民工的社会网络和社会地位[J].社会学研究,1996,(4):42—52.
[26]李文星、徐长生、艾春荣.中国人口年龄结构和居民消费：1989-2004[J].经济研究,2008(7)：118—129.
[27]李焰.关于利率与我国居民储蓄关系的探讨[J].经济研究,1999(11)
[28]李扬、殷剑峰.中国高储蓄率问题探究—1992—2003年中国资金流量表的分析[J].经济研究,2007,(6)：14—26.
[29]李扬、殷剑峰、陈洪波.中国：高储蓄、高投资和高增长研究[J].财贸经济,2007,(1).
[30]李燕凌、李立清.新型农村合作医疗农户参与行为分析[J].中国农村经济,2009,(9):63—75.
[31]李勇辉、温娇秀.我国城镇居民预防性储蓄行为与支出的不确定性关系[J].管理世界,2005,(5)：14—18.
[32]李宗华.我国目前消费需求不足的原因及对策[J].山东大学学报,2004,(5):92—96.
[33]林坚、周菲、黄斯涵.不确定状态下的农户预防性储蓄行为研究—以浙江省为例[J].农业技术经济,2010,(3)：4—13.
[34]刘明志.中国的国内储蓄(1978-1996)：趋势、构成和决定因素[J].金融研究,1998,(5)：6-10.
[35]刘易斯.二元经济论(中译本)[M].北京经济学院出版社,1989.
[36]刘兆博、马树才.基于微观面板数据的中国农民预防性储蓄研究[J].世界经济,2007,(2)：40—49.
[37]龙志和、周浩明.中国城镇居民预防性储蓄实证研究[J].经济研究,2000,(11):33—38.
[38]罗楚亮：经济转轨、不确定性与城镇居民消费行为[J].经济研究,2004,(4):100—106.
[39]罗楚亮、李实、赵人伟：我国居民的财产分布及其国际比较[J].经济学家,2009,(9):90—99.
[40]骆祚炎.支出增长预期对居民消费和储蓄的影响分析—兼评预防性储蓄理论的不足[J].山西财经大学学报,2007,(8)：33—38.
[41]孟昕.中国城市的失业、消费平滑和预防性储蓄[J].经济社会体制比较,2001,(6):40—50.
[42]齐天翔.转轨时期的中国居民储蓄研究经济研究[J].经济研究,2000(9).
[43]乔虹、宋宇.中国的储蓄率及其长期走势[J].金融发展评论,2010,(1):17—35.
[44]任若恩、覃筱.中美两国可比居民储蓄率的计量：1992—2001[J].经济研究,2006,(3):67—81.
[45]沈坤荣.新增长理论与中国经济增长[M].南京大学出版社,2003
[46]沈坤荣.中国经济的转型与增长[M].南京大学出版社,2008
[47]沈坤荣.体制转型期的中国经济增长[M].南京大学出版社,1999
[48]申朴、刘康兵.中国城镇居民消费行为过度敏感性的经验分析：兼论不确定性、流动性约束与利率[J].世界经济,2003(1),61-66.
[49]施建淮、朱海婷.中国城市居民预防性储蓄及预防性动机强度：1999—2003[J].经济研究,2004,(10)：66—74.
[50]史清华、陈凯.欠发达地区农户借贷行为的实证分析[J].农业经济问题,2002,(10).
[51]宋铮.中国居民储蓄行为研究[J].金融研究,1999,(6):64—69.
[52]苏良军、何一峰、金赛男.暂时收入真正影响消费吗?—来自中国农村居民面板数据的证据[J].管理世界,2005,(7)：26—30.
[53]苏基溶、廖进中.中国城镇居民储蓄的影响因素研究：基于三类储蓄动机的实证分析[J].经济评论,2010,(1)：58—64.
[54]孙凤、王玉华.中国居民消费行为研究[J].统计研究,2001(4)：24-30.
[55]陶传平.我国消费市场低迷的原因及对策[J].山东社会科学,2001,(5):96—98.
[56]万广华、史清华、汤树梅.转型经济中农户储蓄行为：中国农村的实证研究[J].经济研究,2003,(5).
[57]万广华、张茵、牛建高：流动性约束、不确定性与中国居民消费[J].经济研究,2001,(11)：35—44.
[58]王德文、蔡昉、张学辉.人口转变论的储蓄效应和增长效应[J].人口研究,2004,(5):2—11.
[59]王美艳.中国城市劳动力市场上的性别工资差异[J].经济研究,2005,(12):35—44.
[60]王小鲁、樊纲.中国经济增长的可持续性[M].经济科学出版社,2000.
[61]王信.我国居民收入高增长时期的储蓄存款分析[J].经济科学,1996,(5):24-31.
[62]汪伟.中国居民储蓄率的决定因素[J].财经研究,2008,(3)：53-64.
[63]王毅、石春华.中美储蓄率比较从核算口径到经济含义[J].金融研究,2010,(1)：12—30.
[64]魏杰、沈坤荣.居民储蓄分析[M].经济科学出版社,1995.
[65]翁媛媛、高汝熹、饶文军.中国高储蓄率部门特征、成因及对策[J].经济学家,2010,(3)：41—49.
[66]谢平.中国个人储蓄行为分析(上)[J].金融研究,1993,(8):23—27.
[67]谢平.中国个人储蓄行为分析(下)[J].金融研究,1993,(9):17—24.
[68]谢平.经济制度转执中岭个人储蓄行为[J].经济社会体制比较,1997,(1):15—19.
[69]亚当.斯密.国民财富的性质和原因的研究(中译本)[M].商务印书馆,1972.
[70]杨汝岱、陈斌开.高等教育改革、预防性储蓄与居民消费行为[J].经济研究,2009,(8):113—124.
[71]杨汝岱、朱诗娥：公平与效率不可兼得吗?——基于居民边际消费倾向的研究[J].经济研究,2007,(12).
[72]杨天宇、侯杞松.收入再分配对我国居民总消费需求的扩张效应[J].经济学家,2009,(9)：39—45.
[73]伊特韦尔等编.新帕尔格雷夫经济学大辞典[M].北京：经济科学出版社,1992.
[74].易行健、王俊海、易君健.预防性储蓄动机强度的时序变化与地区差异—基于中国农村居民的实证研究[J].经济研究,2008,(2):119—131
[75]尹蔚民. 社会保障制度建设存在四个薄弱环节http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2010-08/23/c 12473623.htm
[76]余根钱.居民储蓄持续增长对积累的影响[J].统计研究,1992,(3)：77—78.
[77]袁志刚、宋铮.人口年龄结构、养老保险制度与最优储蓄率[J].经济研究,2000,(11)
[78]袁志刚、朱国林.消费理论中的收入分配与总消费—及对中国消费不振的分析[J].中国社会科学,2002,(2)：69—76.
[79]臧旭恒.中国消费函数分析[M].上海三联书店,上海人民出版社,1994年。
[80]臧旭恒、孙文祥.城乡居民消费结构：基于ELES模型和AIDS模型的比较分析[J].山东大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2003,(6):122—126.
[81]臧旭恒、张继海.收入分配对中国城镇居民消费需求影响的实证分析[J].经济理论与经济管理,2005,(6)：5—10.
[82]张明.中国额高储蓄：特征事实与部门分析[M].中国金融出版社,2009
[83]张士斌、徐天祥.社会保障、不确定性与城镇居民储蓄[J].云南财经大学学报,2010,(1)：60—66.
[84]赵耀辉.中国农村劳动力流动及教育在其中的作用—以四川省为基础的研究[J].经济研究,1997,(2)：37—42.
[85]赵志君.我国居民储蓄率的变动和因素分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,1998,(8):23—26.
[86]周其仁.机会与能力—中国农村劳动力的就业和流动[J].管理世界,1997,(5):81—100.
[87]周绍杰.中国城市居民的预防性储蓄行为研究[J].世界经济,2010,(8):112—122.
[88]周绍杰、张俊森、李宏彬.中国城市居民的家庭收入、消费和储蓄行为：一个基于组群的实证研究[J].经济学(季刊),2009,(4)
[89]周晓艳、汪德华、李均鹏.新型农村合作医疗对中国农村居民储蓄行为影响德实证分析[J].经济科学,2011,(2)：63—76.
[90]朱国林、范建勇、严燕.中国的消费不振与收入分配：理论和数据[J].经济研究,2002,(8)：72—80.
[91]朱农、钟水映.农村家庭参与非农业活动的“推力”与“拉力”分析[J].中国人口科学,2007,(3)：11—21.
[92]朱农.离土还是离乡?—中国农村劳动力地域流动和职业流动的关系分析[J].世界经济文汇,2004,(1)：53—-63.
[93]中国人民大学中国调查与数据中心.中国综合社会调查报告[M].中国社会出版社,2009年.
[94]中国人民银行研究局课题组.中国国民储蓄和居民储蓄的影响因素[J].经济研究,1999,(5)：3-10
[95]朱信凯：流动性约束、不确定性与中国农户消费行为分析[J].统计研究,2005,(2):38—-42.
[96]朱信凯、彭廷军.新型农村合作医疗中的“逆向选择”问题：理论研究与实证分析[J].管理世界,2009,(1)：79—88.
[1]Allais, Olivier; Cadiou, Loic, Dees, Stephane."Defining Consumption Behavior in a Multi-CountryModel."www.cepii. fr/anglaisgraph/workpap/pdf/2001/wp01-02. pdf. acc. Apr.7,2002.
[2]Altonji, Joseph G., Siow, A. "Testing the Response of Consumption to Income Changes With Panel Data," Quarterly Journal of Economy,1987.102(2), pp.293-328.
[3]Arellano, M., Bover, O. "Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of error Components Mod els", Journal of Econometrics,1995,68 (1)
[4]Arellano, M, Bond, S. "Some Test of Specification for Panel Data:Monte Carlo Evidence and Application to Employment Equations", Review of Economic Studies,1991,58 (2)
[5]Attanasio,O. P., Weber, Guglielmo. "Consumption Growth, the Interest Rate and Aggregation," Review of. Economic Studies.,1993,60(3), pp.631-49.
[6]Banerjee, Abhijit, Xin Meng, and Nancy Qian. "The Life Cycle Model and Household Savings: Micro Evidence from Urban China," mimeo, Yale University,2010.
[7]Banks, James, Richard Blundell and Sarah Tanner, "Is There a Retirement-Savings Puzzle?", American Economic Review,1998,88(4):769-788.
[8]Barro, Robert J. and Gary S. Becker, (1989). "Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth," Econometrica,1989,57(2), pp.481-501
[9]Bernank, Ben S. "Permanent Income, Liquidity, and Expenditure on Automobiles:Evidence from Panel Data," Quarterly Journal of Economy,1984,99(3), pp.587-614.
[10]Blundel, R., S Bond, "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models", Journal of Econometrics,1998,87 (1)
[11]Bosworth, B. Burtless, G. Sabelhaus, J. Poterba, J. M. and Summers, L.H. The Decline in Saving:Evidence from Household surveys. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No.1 (1991), pp.183-256
[12]Brauw, A. D., Huang, J. K. and Rozelle, S. The Evolution of Chinese Rural Labor Markets during the Reform, Journal of Comparative Economics,2002,30 (2):329-353.
[13]Browning, M. and Lusardi, A. "Household Saving:Micro Theories and Micro Facts". Journal of Economic Literature, Vol.34(1996), No.4:1797-1855.
[14]Browning, M., Crossley. Thomas. F. "The Life-Cycle Model of Consumption and Saving". Journal of Economic Perspectives,2001,15(3):3-22.
[15]Browning, M.; Ejrnas, M., "Consumption and Children", Mimeo, University of Copenhagen, 2000.
[16]Caballero, R. J., "Consumption Puzzles and Precautionary Savings", Journal of Monetary Economics,1990,25 (1), pp.113-136.
[17]Carroll, "How Does Future Income Affect Current Consumption?" Quarterly Journal of Economics,1994,CIX(1),pp.111-148.
[18]Carroll, Christopher D. "Precautionary Saving and the Marginal Propensity to Consume Out of Permanent Income". Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.56(2009),6:780-90.
[19]Carroll, C. D. Overland, J. and Weil, D. N. "Saving and growth with habit formation", The American Economic Review,2000,90(1).
[20]Carroll, D. Christopher, Rhee, Byung-Kun, and Rhee, Changyong. "Does Cultural Origin Affect Saving Behavior? Evidence from Immigrants". Economic Development and Cultural Change,1999,48 (1):33-50.
[21]Carroll, C. D; Samwick, A. A. "How important Is Precautionary Saving?". The Review of Economics and Statistics,1998 (8):410-419.
[22]Carroll, C.; Weil, D, "Saving and Growth:A Reinterpretation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,1994,40, pp.133-92
[23]Carroll, C. and L. Summers, (1991), "Consumption growth parallels income growth:Some new evidence.", in B.D. Bernheim and J.B. Shoven, (Eds) National Saving and Economic Performance, Chicago University Press for NBER, Chicago,305-43.
[24]Chadwick C. Curtis, Steven Lugauer, Nelson C. Mark:Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China, NBER Working Paper 16828,2011.
[25]Chamon, M., Prasad, E. Why are saving rates of urban households in China rising?. NBER Working Paper No.14546.
[26]Chamon, Marcos., Prasad, E. (2010). "Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?" American Economic Journal:Macroeconomics 2010,2:1,93-130.
[27]Chen, Chien-Liang, Kuan, Chung-Ming, and Lin, Chu-Chia. "Saving and housing of Taiwanese households:New evidence from quantile regression analyses". Journal of Housing Economics Vol.16 (2007):102-126
[28]Collins, S., "Saving behavior in ten developing countries". In:Bernheim, B.D., Shoven, J.B.(Eds.)., National Saving and Economic Performance. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1991,pp.349-372.
[29]Cutler, David M., "Public Policy for HealthCare", Alan J. Auerbach, Fiscal Policy:Lessons from Economic Research, MIT Press,1997.
[30]Davies, J.. "Uncertainty, Consumption and Dissaving in Retirement," Journal of Political Economy,1981,89(3):561-577.
[31]Deaton, Angus, 'Understanding consumption", Oxford:Oxford University Press,1992.
[32]Deaton, Angus; Paxson. C., "Saving, Growth, and Aging in Taiwan," Studies in the Economics of Aging, NBER Project Report Series,1994, pp.331-357.
[33]Deaton, Angus, "Measuring Poverty in a Growing World," Review of Economics and Statistics,2005,87(1), pp.1-19.
[34]Dedah, C., Mishral, Ashok K. Permanent Income and the Importance of Precautionary Savings:An Instrumental Variable Approach. Selected Paper prepared for presentation at the American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meetings, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, July26-28,2009
[35]Duesenberry, J. S, "Income, Saving and the Theory of Consumer Behavior". Harvard University Press,1949.
[36]Dynan, K. E. "How Prudent are Consumers?", Journal of Political Economy,1993,101(6): 1104-1113.
[37]Dynan, K. E. "Habit Formation in Consumer Preferences:Evidence from Panel Data."The American Economic Review,2000,90(2):391-406.
[38]Dynan, K.E., Skinner, J. and Zeldes, S.P., "Do the rich save more?". Journal. Political. Economy.2004,112:397-444.
[39]Eberly, Janice C. "Adjustment of Consumers' Durables Stocks:Evidence from Automobile Purchases," Journal of Political Economy, June 1994,102(3),pp.403-36.
[40]Edwards, S., "Why Are Saving Rate So Different Across Countries?:An International Comparative Analysis". NBER Working Paper No.5097.
[41]Engelhardt, Gary V.,1996, "House Price and Home Owner Saving Behavior", Regional Science and Urban Economies,pp.313-336.
[42]Engelhardt, Gary V. "Consumption, Down Payments, and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Money, Credit, Banking, May 1996,28(2), pp.255-71.
[43]Friedman M. A theory of the consumption function. Princeton University Press,1957.
[44]Gourinchas, P.-O.; Parker. J. A. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle". Econometrica 2002,70(1),47-89.
[45]Guiso, L., Jappelli, T. and Terlizzese, D., "Earnings Uncertainty and Precautionary saving", Journal of Monetary Economics,1992,30, pp.307-337.
[46]Gupta, K., "Personal Saving in Developing Nations:Further Evidence". Economic Record, 1970,46,243-249.
[47]Loundes, H., Webster, E. The Determinants of Household Saving in Australia. Melbourne Institute Working Paper No.22/99,2002
[48]Hayashi, Fumio. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis and Consumption Durability:Analysis based on Japanese Panel Data," Quarterly Journal of Economy,1985,100(4), pp.1083-1113.
[49]Heien,Dale., Durham,Cathy. "A Test of the Habit Formation Hypothesis Using Household Data."The Review of Economics and Statistics,1991,Vol.73(2),pp.189-199.
[50]Horioka, C.; Wan, Junmin. The Determinants of Household Saving in China:A Dynamic Panel Analysis of Provincial Data. NBER Working Paper No.12723.
[51]Horioka, C; Wan, Junmin. "How China Achieved World's Highest Household Savings Rate". Journal of Money, Credit & Banking,2007,12 (4):28-45.
[52]Leff, Nathanisl H. (1969), Dependency Rate and Saving Rate. American Economic Review. 59(5):886-896.
[53]Leff, Nathanisl H. (1971), Dependency Rate and Saving Rate:Reply. American Economic Review.61 (3):476-480.
[54]Leland, H.,1968, Saving and uncertainty:The precautionary demand for saving. Quarterly Journal of Economics,82, pp.465-73.
[55]Loayza, N. Lopez, H. Schmidt-Hebbel, K. and Serven, L. Saving in the world:Stylized Facts, November 1998
[56]Loayza, N. Schmidt-Hebbel, K. and Serven, L. "What drives private saving across the world?", Review of Economics and Statistics,2000,82(2)
[57]Ludwing, A. and Slok, T.2002,"The Impact of Changes in Stock Prices and House Prices on Consumption in OECD Countries", IMF Working Paper.
[58]Lusardi, A., "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption:Evidence from Two Panel Data Sets," J. Bus. Econ. Statist., Jan.1996,14(1),pp.81-90.
[59]Lusardi, A., "On the Importance of the Precautionary Saving Motive". American Economic Review,1998,88:449-453.
[60]Kazarosian, M., "Precautionary saving-A panel study". Review of Economics and Statistics,1997,79:241-47.
[61]Kimball, M. S., "Precautionary Savings in the Small and in the Large", Econometrica,1990, 58, pp.53-73.
[62]Koskela, Erkki; Viren. M, "Social Security and Household Saving in an International Cross Section," American Economic Review,1983,LⅩⅩⅢ,212-17.
[63]Kraay, A. "Household Saving in China". The World Bank Economic Review, 2000,14(3),:545-570.
[64]Kujis, L. "Investment and Saving in China". World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3633,2005.
[65]Kung, James. Kai-sing. Off-Farm Labor Markets and the Emergence of Land Rental Markets in Rural Chinal.Journal of Comparative Economics 30,395-414 (2002)
[66]Koenker, R., Bassett, G., "Regression Quantiles". Econometrica,1978.46,33-50.
[67]Koenker, R., Bassett, G., "Robust Tests for Heteroskedasticity Based on Regression Quantiles". Econometrica,1982,50,43-61.
[68]Michaelides, A,. "Buffer Stock Saving and Habit Formation. "personal. lse. ac. uk/michael3/ own/habinf. pdf.acc. Apr.13,2002
[69]Modigliani, F. and R. Brumberg, "Utility analysis and the consumption function:an interpretation of cross-section data", in Kurihara, K., (ed.) Post-Keynesian Economics, Rutgers University Press,1954,388-436
[70]Modigliani, F. and Cao, L. "The Chinese Saving Puzzle and the Life-Cycle Hypothesis". Journal of Economic Literature, Vol.42(2004), No.1:145-170.
[71]Mohapatra, S. Rozelle, S. and Goodhue, Rachael. (2007). The Rise of Self-Employment in Rural China:Development or Distress?. World Development Vol.35, No.1, pp.163-181
[72]Paxson.C.H. "Using Weather Variability to Estimate Response of Savings to Transitory Income in Thailand". American Economic Review,1992,82:15-33.
[73]Poterba, J. M., "Stock Market Wealth and Consumption", Journal of Economic Perspectives,2000,14 (2):99-118.
[74]Ram, R. (1982), Dependency Rates and Aggregate Savings:A New International Cross-Section Study. American Economic Review.72 (3):537-544.
[75]Schmidt-Hebbel, K; Serven, L., "Does income inequality raise aggregate saving? ".Journal of Development Economics,2000,61:417-446
[76]Seckin, Aylin. " Consumption with Habit Formation. "Scientific Series,CIRANO,Oct. econpapers. hhs. se/paper/circirwor/2000s-39. htm.acc. Apr.11,2000.
[77]Skinner, J. S. (1996). Is housing wealth a sideshow? In Advances in the Economics of Aging, National Bureau of Economic Research Report, pp.241～268. Chicago, IL:University of Chicago Press.
[78]Skinner, J.,1988,"Risky Income, Life Cycle Consumption, and Precautionary Savings", Journal of Monetary Economics. Vol.22, pp.237-55.
[79]Staiger, D., Stock, J.H."Instrumental variables regression with weak instruments". NBER Working Paper 5151,1994.
[80]Thurow, L. "The Optimum Lifetime Distribution of Consumption Expenditure" American Economic Review,1969,59:324-330.
[81]Wang,Y. "Permanent income and wealth accumulation:A cross-sectional study of the Chinese urban and rural households". Journal of Economic Development and Cultural Change, 1995,43:523-550.
[82]Weil, D. N. The Saving of the Elderly in Micro and Macro Data.The Quarterly Journal of Economics,1994,109(1), pp.55-81.
[83]Wooldridge, J M. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data, MIT Press,2002.