富阳市土地生产力时空变化研究
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摘要
土地作为人类赖以生存的物质基础和财富源泉,正遭受有史以来最为强烈的人类活动的影响,不合理的土地利用行为使得土壤肥力下降,生态环境恶化,最终导致土地生产力下降。本研究通过土壤采样分析、统计资料收集和户外实地调研,在分析1979-1996-2006-2009年富阳市土地利用结构变化的基础上,从耕地数量和质量变化,土壤主要养分因子时空变异、土壤重金属污染风险评价,重金属源解析,和土壤有机碳总量变化等方面分析富阳土地生产力的动态变化特征,评价分析城市化进程中土地利用变化对土地生产力的影响作用,总结的变化规律、影响机制和对未来变化趋势的预测,研究结果将有利于土地利用结构和产业布局的优化,为土地生产力保护的相关政策制定提供依据。
本研究的主要内容与结论如下：
(1)土壤肥力水平是土地生产力的基础。本研究首先结合传统统计和地统计方法分析富阳主要土壤肥力因子在土地利用变化过程中的时空变异状况。结果显示1979-2006年富阳市主要土壤肥力因子有机质、全氮、有效磷和速效钾都有显著提高,但空间差异性较大。不同土地利用类型对土壤主要养分含量影响显著,高低顺序基本为菜地>水田≈旱地≈林地>园地>未利用地。城市化过程中的农业土地利用方式转变和农业用地向建设用地转化是导致土壤养分变化的两个主要驱动力。农业生产中有机肥和化肥的大量使用,造纸工业和城镇居民生活产生的废弃物的不当处置是影响土壤养分水平高低的直接原因。其次,通过耕地质量评价体系,认为富阳市1996-2006年和2006-2020年建设占用耕地质量都优于补充耕地质量。虽然主要土壤肥力因子水平有提高,但由于耕地的地形地貌、水源和生产条件等因素水平的下降,导致耕地整体质量有下降趋势。
(2)工业和经济发展导致的土壤重金属污染是土地生产力的重要负面因素。本研究首先以乡镇为单位,使用内梅罗指数法进行土壤重金属污染风险评价分区。评价结果显示：富阳市绝大部分乡镇的土壤综合污染指数小于1,污染风险接近于无,仅有环山乡等少数乡镇存在不同程度的重金属污染风险。然后针对污染风险分区使用CART决策树方法生成一系列基于环境因素的决策规则集,认为污染风险分区内工业排放、交通运输、农业生产和居民生活是造成土壤铜、锌、铅和镉元素积累的最主要原因,而土壤酸碱度和有机质含量对土壤中铜、锌、铅和镉元素的空间分布有重要的影响。通过定量比较分类规则中涉及到的九个环境变量的相对重要性,确定工业排放是造成土壤重金属污染风险的最主要污染源。最后,对比其他的土壤重金属污染研究方法,结果显示CART方法相较于传统统计方法和普通克里格法有明显优势。
(3)土壤有机碳是土地生产力评价的重要指标,也是陆地生态系统最大的碳库,对全球气候变化影响显著。本文充分利用土地利用数据、土壤实测数据及系统的文献综述,分析评价了1979-2006年富阳市土地利用变化尤其是建设用地快速扩张导致的土壤碳变化情况。经计算得到,富阳市1979年的总植被碳为3.680Tg,0-20cm深度的土壤有机碳储量为8.847Tg；2006年的总植被碳为3.407Tg,0-20cm深度的土壤有机碳储量为8.076Tg；土地利用变化导致总植被碳和0-20cm深度的土壤有机碳总量分别下降273.44Gg和771.01Gg,即年均每公顷55.61×10-3Mg C的植被碳和156.81×10-3Mg C的土壤有机碳排放。经分析认为：建设用地扩大,耕地和林地面积减小是造成全市土壤碳储量下降的主要驱动因子。按照富阳市土地利用总体规划(2006-2020),预测富阳市的植被碳和土壤有机碳损失平均速率将分别减缓至年均每公顷25.93×10-3Mg C和27.48×10-3Mg C碳损失的主要原因为农用地结构调整导致的林地、园地面积缩减。
As a material basis and source of wealth for human survival, land are suffering from the most intense impact of human activities in the history. Due to unreasonable land use behavior, the soil resources and environment is facing tremendous pressure, such as the decline of soil fertility quality, deterioration of ecological environment, the decline of land productivity. This study includes researches based on soil sampling, statistic materials collecting and field investigation on land use structure changes in Fuyang County in the period from1979to2009year, such as cropland quality, spatial and temporal variability of soil primary nutrient factors, risk assessment of soil heavy metal pollution, source identification of soil heavy metal pollution, total soil organic carbon (SOC) stock changes and carbon balance evaluation of land use plan. However, all these researches systematically analyze the dynamic changes of land productivity in Fuyang County. The objective of this study is to assess the influence of land use changes (LUCs) on land productivity in urbanization process, and summarize the influence patterns and to predict the future variation trends. The information gathered could provide a scientific way for land use management, and effectively in industrial distribution optimization, soil fertility policy-making and cropland protection. The main contents and results are as follows:
(1) Soil fertility levels are the basis of land productivity. Firstly, the study analyzed temporal and spatial variability of primary soil fertility factors in the land use changing process in Fuyang County by the use of traditional statistics and geostatistics methods. Results showed that soil organic matter, total nitrogen, available phosphorus and available potassium increased significantly with large regional variability in Fuyang County from1979to2006year. Different land use types had significantly influence on soil fertility levels. The general content sequence was listed as vegetable land> paddy field-dry land-woodland> orchard> vacant land. Agricultural LUCs and transition from agricultural to construction land were two driving forces in variations in soil fertility. Extensive use of organic manure and chemical fertilizer, unreasonable disposal of industrial and municipal waste were the direct reasons to the different levels of soil nutrients. Secondly, on the basis of the quality evaluation system of cropland, we compared the quality of construction requisition to compensation cropland from1996to2006year and predicted the trend from2006to2020year in Fuyang County using quality benchmark values of cropland. Results indicated that the quality of construction requisition cropland was better than compensation cropland from1996to2006year and from2006to2020year despite some quality issues exits.
(2) Soil heavy metal pollution is an important negative factor for land productivity, which caused by the development of industry and economy. Firstly, the Nemero Synthesis Index evaluation method was performed to quantify the pollution risk of soil heavy metals in each town. Results showed that most of the towns in Fuyang County had low pollution risk, except towns such as Huanshan had different degrees of pollution risk. Secondly, the CART decision tree method was used to generate sets of decision rules on the region which facing a big pollution risk after done the research on environmental factors, such as industrial emission, transportation, agricultural activities and urban living. Soil pH value and organic matter content significantly influenced the distribution of these heavy metals. After quantitative comparison of the importance of nine environmental factors included in decision rules, industrial emission was selected as the most important heavy metal pollution source. Finally, results indicated that CART had significantly advantages after comparing to multivariate statistics or ordinary kriging method on the research scope of soil heavy metal pollution.
(3) Soil organic carbon is an important indicator of land productivity evaluation and is considered as the largest carbon stock in most terrestrial ecosystems which significantly affecting the global climate change. The objective of this research was to investigate the dynamics of vegetation carbon (VC) and SOC stock changes during1979to2006integrating data of land use, soil sampling and literatures review. Results showed that total VC stocks estimated in Fuyang were3.680Tg in1979and3.407Tg in2006. The total amount of carbon in the depth of0-20cm soil in Fuyang was estimated with8.847Tg in1979and8.076Tg in2006. LUCs between1979and2006have generated a VC decreasing of273.44Gg, which translate into source of55.61x10-3Mg C ha-1year-1Due to land use change of built-up land, cropland and woodland, a SOC was decreased with771.01Gg, which translates into source of156.81×10-3Mg C ha-1year-1mainly. Additionally, due to the expansion of cropland area and reduction of woodland and orchard area, the Fuyang Land Use Master Planning (2006-2020) would lead to potential carbon sources of25.93×10-3Mg C ha-1yea-1of vegetation. And for soil, there are27.48×10-3Mg C ha-1year-1between2006and2020.
本研究的主要内容与结论如下：
(1)土壤肥力水平是土地生产力的基础。本研究首先结合传统统计和地统计方法分析富阳主要土壤肥力因子在土地利用变化过程中的时空变异状况。结果显示1979-2006年富阳市主要土壤肥力因子有机质、全氮、有效磷和速效钾都有显著提高,但空间差异性较大。不同土地利用类型对土壤主要养分含量影响显著,高低顺序基本为菜地>水田≈旱地≈林地>园地>未利用地。城市化过程中的农业土地利用方式转变和农业用地向建设用地转化是导致土壤养分变化的两个主要驱动力。农业生产中有机肥和化肥的大量使用,造纸工业和城镇居民生活产生的废弃物的不当处置是影响土壤养分水平高低的直接原因。其次,通过耕地质量评价体系,认为富阳市1996-2006年和2006-2020年建设占用耕地质量都优于补充耕地质量。虽然主要土壤肥力因子水平有提高,但由于耕地的地形地貌、水源和生产条件等因素水平的下降,导致耕地整体质量有下降趋势。
(2)工业和经济发展导致的土壤重金属污染是土地生产力的重要负面因素。本研究首先以乡镇为单位,使用内梅罗指数法进行土壤重金属污染风险评价分区。评价结果显示：富阳市绝大部分乡镇的土壤综合污染指数小于1,污染风险接近于无,仅有环山乡等少数乡镇存在不同程度的重金属污染风险。然后针对污染风险分区使用CART决策树方法生成一系列基于环境因素的决策规则集,认为污染风险分区内工业排放、交通运输、农业生产和居民生活是造成土壤铜、锌、铅和镉元素积累的最主要原因,而土壤酸碱度和有机质含量对土壤中铜、锌、铅和镉元素的空间分布有重要的影响。通过定量比较分类规则中涉及到的九个环境变量的相对重要性,确定工业排放是造成土壤重金属污染风险的最主要污染源。最后,对比其他的土壤重金属污染研究方法,结果显示CART方法相较于传统统计方法和普通克里格法有明显优势。
(3)土壤有机碳是土地生产力评价的重要指标,也是陆地生态系统最大的碳库,对全球气候变化影响显著。本文充分利用土地利用数据、土壤实测数据及系统的文献综述,分析评价了1979-2006年富阳市土地利用变化尤其是建设用地快速扩张导致的土壤碳变化情况。经计算得到,富阳市1979年的总植被碳为3.680Tg,0-20cm深度的土壤有机碳储量为8.847Tg；2006年的总植被碳为3.407Tg,0-20cm深度的土壤有机碳储量为8.076Tg；土地利用变化导致总植被碳和0-20cm深度的土壤有机碳总量分别下降273.44Gg和771.01Gg,即年均每公顷55.61×10-3Mg C的植被碳和156.81×10-3Mg C的土壤有机碳排放。经分析认为：建设用地扩大,耕地和林地面积减小是造成全市土壤碳储量下降的主要驱动因子。按照富阳市土地利用总体规划(2006-2020),预测富阳市的植被碳和土壤有机碳损失平均速率将分别减缓至年均每公顷25.93×10-3Mg C和27.48×10-3Mg C碳损失的主要原因为农用地结构调整导致的林地、园地面积缩减。
As a material basis and source of wealth for human survival, land are suffering from the most intense impact of human activities in the history. Due to unreasonable land use behavior, the soil resources and environment is facing tremendous pressure, such as the decline of soil fertility quality, deterioration of ecological environment, the decline of land productivity. This study includes researches based on soil sampling, statistic materials collecting and field investigation on land use structure changes in Fuyang County in the period from1979to2009year, such as cropland quality, spatial and temporal variability of soil primary nutrient factors, risk assessment of soil heavy metal pollution, source identification of soil heavy metal pollution, total soil organic carbon (SOC) stock changes and carbon balance evaluation of land use plan. However, all these researches systematically analyze the dynamic changes of land productivity in Fuyang County. The objective of this study is to assess the influence of land use changes (LUCs) on land productivity in urbanization process, and summarize the influence patterns and to predict the future variation trends. The information gathered could provide a scientific way for land use management, and effectively in industrial distribution optimization, soil fertility policy-making and cropland protection. The main contents and results are as follows:
(1) Soil fertility levels are the basis of land productivity. Firstly, the study analyzed temporal and spatial variability of primary soil fertility factors in the land use changing process in Fuyang County by the use of traditional statistics and geostatistics methods. Results showed that soil organic matter, total nitrogen, available phosphorus and available potassium increased significantly with large regional variability in Fuyang County from1979to2006year. Different land use types had significantly influence on soil fertility levels. The general content sequence was listed as vegetable land> paddy field-dry land-woodland> orchard> vacant land. Agricultural LUCs and transition from agricultural to construction land were two driving forces in variations in soil fertility. Extensive use of organic manure and chemical fertilizer, unreasonable disposal of industrial and municipal waste were the direct reasons to the different levels of soil nutrients. Secondly, on the basis of the quality evaluation system of cropland, we compared the quality of construction requisition to compensation cropland from1996to2006year and predicted the trend from2006to2020year in Fuyang County using quality benchmark values of cropland. Results indicated that the quality of construction requisition cropland was better than compensation cropland from1996to2006year and from2006to2020year despite some quality issues exits.
(2) Soil heavy metal pollution is an important negative factor for land productivity, which caused by the development of industry and economy. Firstly, the Nemero Synthesis Index evaluation method was performed to quantify the pollution risk of soil heavy metals in each town. Results showed that most of the towns in Fuyang County had low pollution risk, except towns such as Huanshan had different degrees of pollution risk. Secondly, the CART decision tree method was used to generate sets of decision rules on the region which facing a big pollution risk after done the research on environmental factors, such as industrial emission, transportation, agricultural activities and urban living. Soil pH value and organic matter content significantly influenced the distribution of these heavy metals. After quantitative comparison of the importance of nine environmental factors included in decision rules, industrial emission was selected as the most important heavy metal pollution source. Finally, results indicated that CART had significantly advantages after comparing to multivariate statistics or ordinary kriging method on the research scope of soil heavy metal pollution.
(3) Soil organic carbon is an important indicator of land productivity evaluation and is considered as the largest carbon stock in most terrestrial ecosystems which significantly affecting the global climate change. The objective of this research was to investigate the dynamics of vegetation carbon (VC) and SOC stock changes during1979to2006integrating data of land use, soil sampling and literatures review. Results showed that total VC stocks estimated in Fuyang were3.680Tg in1979and3.407Tg in2006. The total amount of carbon in the depth of0-20cm soil in Fuyang was estimated with8.847Tg in1979and8.076Tg in2006. LUCs between1979and2006have generated a VC decreasing of273.44Gg, which translate into source of55.61x10-3Mg C ha-1year-1Due to land use change of built-up land, cropland and woodland, a SOC was decreased with771.01Gg, which translates into source of156.81×10-3Mg C ha-1year-1mainly. Additionally, due to the expansion of cropland area and reduction of woodland and orchard area, the Fuyang Land Use Master Planning (2006-2020) would lead to potential carbon sources of25.93×10-3Mg C ha-1yea-1of vegetation. And for soil, there are27.48×10-3Mg C ha-1year-1between2006and2020.
引文
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