区域综合交通发展规划的若干关键问题研究
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摘要
交通运输枢纽的发展,推动各种运输方式在枢纽中的协调融合,加速旅客、货物在枢纽通道中的运送,降低运输成本,从而提高整体综合交通系统的运输效率。社会经济发展和区域一体化的趋势,要求交通设施间的协调配合不再局限在大型综合场站枢纽和城市交通枢纽内,对于区域交通设施之间的协调性要求也逐步提高。区域交通枢纽的理念,就在于既要使得区域的城市枢纽节点、运输通道等交通子系统内部交通方式间、交通设施间达到协调优化的目标,也要求区域内这些系统之间能够相互综合协调。区域交通枢纽的研究范围跨越区域面总体、运输通道干线和区域内城市节点内部三个层面,通过三个层面的系统协调来实现区域形成一个整体枢纽发挥综合优化的效益。本文从区域交通枢纽的规划过程出发,主要集中于区域枢纽交通运量的预测方法、区域运输通道的规划方法和区域枢纽节点内部布局方法三个层面,将定性分析方法和定量研究方法结合在一起提出研究综合方法,分别提出不同层面的研究模型,形成一整套区域综合运输枢纽规划的方法,为指导区域交通枢纽规划提供理论依据。
本文的研究内容涵盖以下几个方面：
1.构建了基于数据融合的区域枢纽运量预测方法。在阐述了运量预测的基本概念、特点及预测方法的基本原理等基础上,分析了各种常用的定性和定量预测方法的原理和适用条件,提出一种基于数据融合的运量预测方法,给出了预测模型的基本原理和过程。该方法融合了前述各种常用的预测方法,把每一种方法作为一个个预测器,构建了神经网络模型。这种方法缩小了预测模型的误差,提高了预测方法的可靠性。
2.建立了动力学运量预测模型。综合交通运输枢纽运量预测具有长期预测和动态性变化的特点,本文借鉴经济计量模型理论,提出了适应交通运输系统特点的建模原则,分别划定了客运量和货运量预测各自的内生变量、外生变量和前定变量,构建了客运量和货运量的预测模型以及多元回归方程,并且给出了模型参数估计和模型整体检验的方法。
3.建立了通道交通分布预测模型和通道内各运输方式划分预测模型。针对近期区域交通量分布预测,采用平滑系数法、指数平滑法,从交通分布结构稳定类型及交通分布结构非稳定类型构建了交通分布预测模型；针对中长期区域交通量分布预测,则选用传统的重力模型,构建了分布模型。采用多元Logit模型在确定综合效用函数的基础上,构建了运输通道方式选择与流量分配联合模型。
4.构建了运输通道重要度区位联合布局法。给出了区域交通枢纽中运输通道的规划思路,讨论了影响区域节点重要度的各因素,采用主成分分析法对各交通节点的重要度进行标定,给出了关键性交通节点的选取思路和区位划分的方法。提出运输通道的起止点选取办法,并采用双重扫除法提出了通道径路的备选集选取方法,最后从备选集中确定出合理的备选方案。通过构建运输通道布局评价指标体系,给出了各指标计算量化方法以及标准化方法,借鉴粗糙集理论建立了运输通道备选方案的评价模型,从而给出运输通道的规划方案。
5.建立了系统整体协调性枢纽节点场站布局方法。论文首先给出了区域枢纽节点的定义、分类及组成,详细探讨了区域枢纽节点的内部功能和外部功能。论文给出了枢纽节点的布局原则后,分析了现有的几种一元枢纽节点场站和多元枢纽节点场站等几种枢纽节点布局方法原理及其不足,建立了系统整体协调性节点场站布局方法。论文建立了区域枢纽节点布局方法的整体评价指标体系,设计了指标的量化方法和各指标的标准化方法和指标权重的确定方法,建立了方案综合评价模型。
6.运用论文提出的理论方法,对四川省枢纽运输通道布局和西宁枢纽节点客运场站布局进行了实证研究。通过运营论文的方法理论,给出了四川省的运输通道布局方案和西宁枢纽节点的客运场站布局方案,论证了论文的研究成果的可行性和有效性,为论文的理论研究提供了实践支撑。
The rapid development of transportation hub promotes the coordination and integration of different means of transportation in the hub, and the travel speed, the transportation cost and the overall benefit will be improved in the transportation of freight or passengers. With the developments of the socio-economic and regional integration, the coordination between the transportation facilities is not only required in the large-scale station hub or the urban integrated transport hub, but also in the regional transportation hub. The conception of regional transportation hub requires that the transportation facilities in the regional hub nodes, transport corridor or other transportation subsystem are in a coordinated state. The research on regional transportation hub includes three levels, the overall region, the regional transportation corridor and the regional hub nodes. The regional transportation hub is systematically coordinated on the three levels to achieve a comprehensive optimization of the service efficiency. This paper based on practical situation planning of the regional transportation hub, corridor and hub nodes, concentrates on regional traffic volume prediction methods, integrated transport corridor planning approaches and regional hub node layout approaches, which combines qualitative and quantitative research and forms a set of theoretical system. Several integrated planning models presented in this paper provide theoretical guidance for the practical planning work.
The main work accomplished in the dissertation was as followings:
1. The regional transportation hub forecast methods based on data fusion. After introducing the basic conceptions, the basic principles and characteristics of the transportation forecast, the steps and the application conditions of several common qualitative and quantitative transportation forecast methods are analyzed. The transportation forecast methods based on data fusion, which neural network model that combines forecast methods described above as forecast tools, are proposed. In the chapter, the basic principles and processes of the methods are described in detail. This method weakens the error of prediction models to improve the reliability of forecast methods.
2. Transportation forecast model based on Dynamics. As transportation forecast of integrated transportation hub is common long-term and dynamic, passenger transportation freight forecast models based on the reasonable transportation forecast principles are respectively proposed. The forecast Multiple Regression Equation including Endogenous variables, Exogenous variables and Predetermined variables described in detail. The model parameter estimation and global testing methods are also proposed.
3. Traffic distribution forecast model of different transportation corridors and traffic distribution forecast model of different modes of transportation in the transportation corridor. For the short-term traffic volume distribution forecast in the regional transportation hub, traffic distribution forecasting models of the stable-structure traffic distribution and the nonstable-structure traffic distribution are built by using the smoothing coefficient method and exponential smoothing methods. For the long-term traffic volume distribution recent forecast in the regional transportation hub, the model is built with Gravity Model. In order to obtain traffic volumes of different modes of transportation in one corridor, traffic distribution forecast of different modes of transportation are presented with Multivariate Logit Model, and the model calibration are also given.
4. Transportation corridor layout integrated methods combining Node Importance and Traffic Location. The whole process of transportation corridor layout approaches includes defining the planning principles, determining the impact factors of transportation Nodes Importance, calculating transportation Nodes Importance with Principal Component Analysis, selecting transportation control nodes, dividing Traffic Location and determining the path of the corridor. The last step also includes selecting start and end points of the corridor, searching the path of the corridor with Double-Sweep Method. The feasible solution set of the transportation corridor planning in each Traffic Location will be obtained after the end of the methods. The evaluation index system of the transportation corridor planning is built in the paper, and the calculations and standardizations methods of evaluation index are proposed, and then the transportation corridor planning evaluation model is obtained.
5. System global coordination methods of transportation hub layout. The conception, the classifications and the components of transportation hub are described, and the internal functions and external functions of regional transportation hub are analyzed in detail. Based on the applicability analysis of several common transportation layout methods, System global coordination methods of transportation hub layout are proposed, which take into the optimization principles of hub node stations layout. The evaluation index system of the regional transportation hub nodes planning is built in the paper, and the calculations and standardizations methods of evaluation index are proposed, and the index weights calculations methods are also proposed, and then the transportation hub nodes planning evaluation model is obtained.
6. The transportation corridor layout planning in Sichuan Province and the transportation hub nodes layout of the passenger stations in Xining are empirically studied by the use of the theories proposed in the paper. By using these theories, two rational planning are obtained, while the reliability and feasibility of the theoretical system in the paper are verified.
本文的研究内容涵盖以下几个方面：
1.构建了基于数据融合的区域枢纽运量预测方法。在阐述了运量预测的基本概念、特点及预测方法的基本原理等基础上,分析了各种常用的定性和定量预测方法的原理和适用条件,提出一种基于数据融合的运量预测方法,给出了预测模型的基本原理和过程。该方法融合了前述各种常用的预测方法,把每一种方法作为一个个预测器,构建了神经网络模型。这种方法缩小了预测模型的误差,提高了预测方法的可靠性。
2.建立了动力学运量预测模型。综合交通运输枢纽运量预测具有长期预测和动态性变化的特点,本文借鉴经济计量模型理论,提出了适应交通运输系统特点的建模原则,分别划定了客运量和货运量预测各自的内生变量、外生变量和前定变量,构建了客运量和货运量的预测模型以及多元回归方程,并且给出了模型参数估计和模型整体检验的方法。
3.建立了通道交通分布预测模型和通道内各运输方式划分预测模型。针对近期区域交通量分布预测,采用平滑系数法、指数平滑法,从交通分布结构稳定类型及交通分布结构非稳定类型构建了交通分布预测模型；针对中长期区域交通量分布预测,则选用传统的重力模型,构建了分布模型。采用多元Logit模型在确定综合效用函数的基础上,构建了运输通道方式选择与流量分配联合模型。
4.构建了运输通道重要度区位联合布局法。给出了区域交通枢纽中运输通道的规划思路,讨论了影响区域节点重要度的各因素,采用主成分分析法对各交通节点的重要度进行标定,给出了关键性交通节点的选取思路和区位划分的方法。提出运输通道的起止点选取办法,并采用双重扫除法提出了通道径路的备选集选取方法,最后从备选集中确定出合理的备选方案。通过构建运输通道布局评价指标体系,给出了各指标计算量化方法以及标准化方法,借鉴粗糙集理论建立了运输通道备选方案的评价模型,从而给出运输通道的规划方案。
5.建立了系统整体协调性枢纽节点场站布局方法。论文首先给出了区域枢纽节点的定义、分类及组成,详细探讨了区域枢纽节点的内部功能和外部功能。论文给出了枢纽节点的布局原则后,分析了现有的几种一元枢纽节点场站和多元枢纽节点场站等几种枢纽节点布局方法原理及其不足,建立了系统整体协调性节点场站布局方法。论文建立了区域枢纽节点布局方法的整体评价指标体系,设计了指标的量化方法和各指标的标准化方法和指标权重的确定方法,建立了方案综合评价模型。
6.运用论文提出的理论方法,对四川省枢纽运输通道布局和西宁枢纽节点客运场站布局进行了实证研究。通过运营论文的方法理论,给出了四川省的运输通道布局方案和西宁枢纽节点的客运场站布局方案,论证了论文的研究成果的可行性和有效性,为论文的理论研究提供了实践支撑。
The rapid development of transportation hub promotes the coordination and integration of different means of transportation in the hub, and the travel speed, the transportation cost and the overall benefit will be improved in the transportation of freight or passengers. With the developments of the socio-economic and regional integration, the coordination between the transportation facilities is not only required in the large-scale station hub or the urban integrated transport hub, but also in the regional transportation hub. The conception of regional transportation hub requires that the transportation facilities in the regional hub nodes, transport corridor or other transportation subsystem are in a coordinated state. The research on regional transportation hub includes three levels, the overall region, the regional transportation corridor and the regional hub nodes. The regional transportation hub is systematically coordinated on the three levels to achieve a comprehensive optimization of the service efficiency. This paper based on practical situation planning of the regional transportation hub, corridor and hub nodes, concentrates on regional traffic volume prediction methods, integrated transport corridor planning approaches and regional hub node layout approaches, which combines qualitative and quantitative research and forms a set of theoretical system. Several integrated planning models presented in this paper provide theoretical guidance for the practical planning work.
The main work accomplished in the dissertation was as followings:
1. The regional transportation hub forecast methods based on data fusion. After introducing the basic conceptions, the basic principles and characteristics of the transportation forecast, the steps and the application conditions of several common qualitative and quantitative transportation forecast methods are analyzed. The transportation forecast methods based on data fusion, which neural network model that combines forecast methods described above as forecast tools, are proposed. In the chapter, the basic principles and processes of the methods are described in detail. This method weakens the error of prediction models to improve the reliability of forecast methods.
2. Transportation forecast model based on Dynamics. As transportation forecast of integrated transportation hub is common long-term and dynamic, passenger transportation freight forecast models based on the reasonable transportation forecast principles are respectively proposed. The forecast Multiple Regression Equation including Endogenous variables, Exogenous variables and Predetermined variables described in detail. The model parameter estimation and global testing methods are also proposed.
3. Traffic distribution forecast model of different transportation corridors and traffic distribution forecast model of different modes of transportation in the transportation corridor. For the short-term traffic volume distribution forecast in the regional transportation hub, traffic distribution forecasting models of the stable-structure traffic distribution and the nonstable-structure traffic distribution are built by using the smoothing coefficient method and exponential smoothing methods. For the long-term traffic volume distribution recent forecast in the regional transportation hub, the model is built with Gravity Model. In order to obtain traffic volumes of different modes of transportation in one corridor, traffic distribution forecast of different modes of transportation are presented with Multivariate Logit Model, and the model calibration are also given.
4. Transportation corridor layout integrated methods combining Node Importance and Traffic Location. The whole process of transportation corridor layout approaches includes defining the planning principles, determining the impact factors of transportation Nodes Importance, calculating transportation Nodes Importance with Principal Component Analysis, selecting transportation control nodes, dividing Traffic Location and determining the path of the corridor. The last step also includes selecting start and end points of the corridor, searching the path of the corridor with Double-Sweep Method. The feasible solution set of the transportation corridor planning in each Traffic Location will be obtained after the end of the methods. The evaluation index system of the transportation corridor planning is built in the paper, and the calculations and standardizations methods of evaluation index are proposed, and then the transportation corridor planning evaluation model is obtained.
5. System global coordination methods of transportation hub layout. The conception, the classifications and the components of transportation hub are described, and the internal functions and external functions of regional transportation hub are analyzed in detail. Based on the applicability analysis of several common transportation layout methods, System global coordination methods of transportation hub layout are proposed, which take into the optimization principles of hub node stations layout. The evaluation index system of the regional transportation hub nodes planning is built in the paper, and the calculations and standardizations methods of evaluation index are proposed, and the index weights calculations methods are also proposed, and then the transportation hub nodes planning evaluation model is obtained.
6. The transportation corridor layout planning in Sichuan Province and the transportation hub nodes layout of the passenger stations in Xining are empirically studied by the use of the theories proposed in the paper. By using these theories, two rational planning are obtained, while the reliability and feasibility of the theoretical system in the paper are verified.
引文
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