低碳经济背景下中国对外直接投资模式转型研究
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摘要
长期以来,发达国家对外投资的相关理论一直是国际经济学领域研究的热点议题之一。伴随着不断加速的经济全球化步伐和我国迅速深化的改革开放进程,越来越多的中国企业也开始以全球视野配置资源,中国的对外直接投资也随之踏上了高速增长的快车道。然而,近年来,气候变暖严重威胁到人类的可持续发展,应对气候变化的低碳约束政策竞相出台,在一定程度上改变了跨国公司运营的市场环境,对原有国际资本流动的方式、流向与范围形成了冲击。在新形势下,我国企业如何转变思维,抓住低碳经济这个机遇、应对低碳约束、改善对外直接投资模式,已成为建设“资源节约型环境友好型”社会的新思路。在至关重要的低碳技术储备上,与发达国家相比,我国明显不足,整体发展水平也很低。虽然清洁发展机制(CDM)给我们带来了一定的节能减排技术外溢,但是让渡核心技术的商业化成本仍然太高,单靠吸引国外投资获取低碳技术外溢已无法解决我国碳减排的压力。要想在低碳背景下占得先机,在国际竞争中获取优势,紧紧围绕清洁技术创新这个关键问题实现对外投资的转型十分重要。
本文首先以跨国投资的演进趋势为切入点,运用对外直接投资与碳排放的相关数据,对低碳背景下跨国投资的发展轨迹做了简要回顾,由此阐述了跨国投资由碳污染转移模式向清洁技术投资模式转型的动态演化进程。在此现实背景下,本文总结了我国对外投资的现行模式,并且从东道国的碳排污标准、碳税负担以及环境信息公开制度三个视角考察了我国对外投资模式与低碳背景的耦合程度。研究表明,国际气候政策严苛的现实背景下,我国对外投资产业具有高能耗、高排放的弊端和潜在风险,难以与气候政策环境耦合；同时,本文对比研究了我国在石油、天然气等传统能源领域的对外投资模式与国际新能源投资的趋势,分析了传统能源寻求型对外投资的限制与监管,探明了冲击我国现行对外投资模式的主要原因。
在分析低碳背景下发达国家与我国对外投资模式现实差距的基础上,本文构建了一个碳交易机会成本、清洁产品偏好、社会福利收益与低碳对外投资的数理分析框架,深入研究了我国对外投资模式转型的理论基础。通过假定低碳约束条件下,企业碳交易的机会成本及其低碳研发成功概率计算企业碳减排成本,并从产品环境质量偏好的异质性市场出发,对比分析了进行低碳技术研发的跨国企业与不进行低碳技术研发的企业获得利润的概率与高低。在社会福利方面,在给定东道国技术溢出率与排放定价后,本文通过构建模型计算了企业进行减排技术创新所能获得的高于企业收益的额外社会收益。分析表明,当价格不变时,降低成本将促进减排水平的提高,在外生式环境政策的作用下,更多的技术创新将导致社会福利的增加。
本文进而从客体动力、主体动力两个层面剖析我国对外投资转型的动力机制。客体动力方面,以经典规制控制理论为支撑,通过建立Moledina两阶段动态博弈模型预测了国际气候政策变化的趋势。博弈结果表明,在二氧化碳减排上具有比较优势的企业运用进攻性的威慑战略推动碳公约模式转型,诱使规制方采用刚性的碳公约模式,逼迫劣势企业大幅增加责任减排量,高标准的实施可能导致劣势企业最终因亏损而退出市场。我国跨国企业低碳技术水平低且难以通过自主研发缓解污染,加之中国的新能源开发尚不具备规模,这种情况下转变对外直接投资模式是我国获取核心技术应对国际气候政策日益严苛的现实选择。主体动力则体现在我国开展新型对外投资的潜在收益及国内碳减排的内在要求上。一方面,低碳背景下我国开展新型对外投资可获取低碳技术、避开碳关税壁垒以及获取创新补偿的潜在收益；另一方面,我国国内情况不容乐观,通过计量方法对中国国内的碳排放碳库兹涅茨曲线(CKC)进行回归分析,实证研究表明,我国以二氧化碳为指标衡量的环境水平还处在CKC曲线拐点的左端。解决当下我国经济增长与碳减排目标冲突的出路之一在于利用对外直接投资渠道发展低碳经济抢占产业至高点。
最后,基于以上的理论框架和实证结果,本文提出了我国对外投资模式转型的路径与面临的风险。低碳背景下我国对外直接投资路径选择主要可从以下几个方面进行：其一,在投资产业的选择上,我国对外直接投资产业选择可参考能源保障基准、学习与技术寻求基准、市场寻求基准,中国对外直接投资应重点投向新能源技术研发、洁净煤技术开发与应用、二氧化碳捕获和封存技术(CCS)等发展低碳经济的关键技术领域；其二,在投资主体的选择上,低碳背景下我国对外直接投资宜使用大型企业集团为主、中小企业随后跟进的策略；其三,在投资方式的选择上,应灵活选择进入模式发展传统型行业和新兴型低碳产业,着重考虑跨国并购的投资方式。但在对外直接投资模式转变的过程中,我国低碳产业投资将面临着更多新风险,如碳排放许可的价格变化难量化的价格风险,低碳投资项目中的碳排放许可(限额)生产成本的预期不确定性的成本风险,及低碳投资项目中可产生的碳排放许可或配额结余的预期不确定性的数量风险。最后,从对接东道国碳排放标准、推动低碳技术寻求型对外投资、参与国际气候政策制定、控制低碳对外投资等方面提出推动对外投资模式转型的政策建议。
Long-term since, related theories on foreign investment in developed countries have been one of the hotspots in research of international economics. With the acceleration and deepening of economic globalization and China's reform, more and more Chinese enterprises also began to allocate resources from the global perspective. China's outward direct investment will be on the fast lane. However, in recent years, climate warming seriously threats the sustainable development of human. Responding to climate change, policies on low carbon constraints are appearing, which change the market environment of multinational companies to some extent and impact the original pattern, direction and scope of international capital flows. In the new situation, how to change the thinking, catch opportunity of low-carbon economy and improve the outward direct investment mode of China's enterprises have become new ideas for construction "resource-saving and environment-friendly" society. Compared with developed countries, China obviouly lacks the vital reservation of low carbon technologies and the overall development level is relatively low. Although the clean development mechanism (CDM) brings us some spillover of technologies for energy conservation and emission reduction, the commercialization of the alienated core technology is too high and spillover from foreign direct investment still can't solve China's carbon emissions. In order to get ahead and take advantages under the low carbon economy and international competition, it is very important for us to be closely around clean technology innovation and to realize transformation of China's outward investment.
This paper firstly discusses about evolutional trend of multinational investment as the breakthrough point and uses relevant data of outward direct investment and carbon emissions, then briefly reviews the developing track of the multinational investment under low-carbon economy, finally expounds dynamic evolution of multinational investment from the transferring carbon pollution to investing clean technolog. Under above-mentioned background, this paper summarizes the current pattern of China's outward direct investment.From such three perspectives as standards of carbon emission, burden of carbon tax and environmental information openness system of the host countries, this paper also investigates the coupling degree between China's outward investment mode and low-carbon economy. The research shows that it is difficult to couple between China's outward investment industries and climate policy environment because the industries are of high-energy consumption, high emissions and the potential risks. At the same time, this article compares our outward investment in traditional energy fields such as petroleum, natural gas with the international trend of new energy investment, also analyzes the limitation and supervision on ourward investment in traditional energy, and explores the main reasons for the impact of our current ourward investment.
On the basis of analyzing the real gap between China's outward investment mode and developed countries'under the low carbon economy, the paper constructs a mathematical analyzing framework including opportunity cost of carbon trading, preference for cleaning products, social welfare benefits and low carbon outward investment, and then further researchs the theories on transformation of China's outward investment mode.The paper also calculates enterprises'carbon abatement cost by enterprises'opportunity cost of carbon trading and success probability of R&D on low carbon assumed low-carbon constraint condition.From heterogeneous market of preferences for product environmental quality, it comparatively analyzes the probability and extent of profit beween the multinationas which care about low-carbon technology R&D and those don't care. Given the technology spillover rate and emission pricing in host countries, this article constructs the model to calculate extra social benefit that enterprises will have got from technology innovation for emissions reduction, which is higher than the income. Analysis shows that cost reduction will improve emissions reduction when prices are constant, and more technology innovation will result in the increase of social welfare under exogenous environmental policies.
This paper analyzes the dynamic mechanism for transformation of our outward investment from propectives of and subjective impetus.From the perspective of objective impetus, supported by classical regulation-controlling theories, it predicts changing trend of international climate policies through establishing a Moldina two-stage dynamic game model. The result of game shows that the enterprises that have comparative advantages in carbon dioxide emissions will use offensively-deterred strategies to promote transformation of carbon convention model, induce regulation party to use rigid carbon convention mode, and force disadvantageous enterprises to greatly increase liabilities of emissions reduction, finally disadvantageous enterprises might loss and withdraw from the market because of the high standards. China's international enterprises with low level of low-carbon technology are difficult to relieve pollution by autonomous R&D, and China's development of new energy is not large enough.Under the circumstances, changing mode of China's outward direct investment is the pratical way to deal with the increasingly-harsh international climate policies. Subjective impetus is reflected in potential gains from China's new outward investment and the internal demand for domestic carbon emissions reductions. On one hand, China's new outward investment can help get low-carbon technology, avoid barriers of carbon tariff and gain the potential gains from innovative compensation under low-carbon economy; On the other hand, domestic situation is not optimistic:regression analysis on China's domestic carbon kuznets curve of carbon emissions through empirical research shows that China's environment level measured by carbon dioxide is still to the left side of inflection point on CKC curve. The only way for solving the conflicts between economic growth in China and goals of carbon emission reduction is to exploit outward investment channel, and to develop low-carbon economy and seize industrial high-point.
Finally, based on the forementioned theoretical framework and empirical results, this paper puts forward paths for China's outward investment transformation and potential risks. The paths for China's outward direct investment under low-carbon economy are mainly as follows:first, in the choice of investment industry, China may refer to the benchmarks of energy-security, seeking-for technology-learning and seeking-for market, so China should focus on such key technologies for low-carbon economy as R&D for new-energy technology, development and application of clean-coal technology, carbon capture and storage technology (CCS); Second, in the choice of the investment subject, we'd better choose the strategies under the low-carbon economy,in which giving priority to large enterprise groups, small and medium-sized enterprises then following up; Third, in the choice of the ways of investment,we should flexibly choose the entering pattern to develop both traditional and new low-carbon industries,greatly focusing on transnational merger. But in the changing process of outward investment patterns, China's low-carbon industry investment will face more new risks, such as the price risk carbon,i.e. it is difficult to quantify the price's change of carbon emissions permits;the cost risk, i.e.it is uncertain to predict the production cost of carbon emissions permits (limit) of the low-carbon investment project;the quantity risk,i.e. it is uncertain to predict the balance of carbon emissions permits or quotas produced in low-carbon investment projects. At last, the paper puts forward policy suggestions from such aspects as dovetailling carbon emissions standards in host country, promoting outward investment seeking for low-carbon technology, participating in policy-making of international climate, and controlling low-carbon outward investment.
本文首先以跨国投资的演进趋势为切入点,运用对外直接投资与碳排放的相关数据,对低碳背景下跨国投资的发展轨迹做了简要回顾,由此阐述了跨国投资由碳污染转移模式向清洁技术投资模式转型的动态演化进程。在此现实背景下,本文总结了我国对外投资的现行模式,并且从东道国的碳排污标准、碳税负担以及环境信息公开制度三个视角考察了我国对外投资模式与低碳背景的耦合程度。研究表明,国际气候政策严苛的现实背景下,我国对外投资产业具有高能耗、高排放的弊端和潜在风险,难以与气候政策环境耦合；同时,本文对比研究了我国在石油、天然气等传统能源领域的对外投资模式与国际新能源投资的趋势,分析了传统能源寻求型对外投资的限制与监管,探明了冲击我国现行对外投资模式的主要原因。
在分析低碳背景下发达国家与我国对外投资模式现实差距的基础上,本文构建了一个碳交易机会成本、清洁产品偏好、社会福利收益与低碳对外投资的数理分析框架,深入研究了我国对外投资模式转型的理论基础。通过假定低碳约束条件下,企业碳交易的机会成本及其低碳研发成功概率计算企业碳减排成本,并从产品环境质量偏好的异质性市场出发,对比分析了进行低碳技术研发的跨国企业与不进行低碳技术研发的企业获得利润的概率与高低。在社会福利方面,在给定东道国技术溢出率与排放定价后,本文通过构建模型计算了企业进行减排技术创新所能获得的高于企业收益的额外社会收益。分析表明,当价格不变时,降低成本将促进减排水平的提高,在外生式环境政策的作用下,更多的技术创新将导致社会福利的增加。
本文进而从客体动力、主体动力两个层面剖析我国对外投资转型的动力机制。客体动力方面,以经典规制控制理论为支撑,通过建立Moledina两阶段动态博弈模型预测了国际气候政策变化的趋势。博弈结果表明,在二氧化碳减排上具有比较优势的企业运用进攻性的威慑战略推动碳公约模式转型,诱使规制方采用刚性的碳公约模式,逼迫劣势企业大幅增加责任减排量,高标准的实施可能导致劣势企业最终因亏损而退出市场。我国跨国企业低碳技术水平低且难以通过自主研发缓解污染,加之中国的新能源开发尚不具备规模,这种情况下转变对外直接投资模式是我国获取核心技术应对国际气候政策日益严苛的现实选择。主体动力则体现在我国开展新型对外投资的潜在收益及国内碳减排的内在要求上。一方面,低碳背景下我国开展新型对外投资可获取低碳技术、避开碳关税壁垒以及获取创新补偿的潜在收益；另一方面,我国国内情况不容乐观,通过计量方法对中国国内的碳排放碳库兹涅茨曲线(CKC)进行回归分析,实证研究表明,我国以二氧化碳为指标衡量的环境水平还处在CKC曲线拐点的左端。解决当下我国经济增长与碳减排目标冲突的出路之一在于利用对外直接投资渠道发展低碳经济抢占产业至高点。
最后,基于以上的理论框架和实证结果,本文提出了我国对外投资模式转型的路径与面临的风险。低碳背景下我国对外直接投资路径选择主要可从以下几个方面进行：其一,在投资产业的选择上,我国对外直接投资产业选择可参考能源保障基准、学习与技术寻求基准、市场寻求基准,中国对外直接投资应重点投向新能源技术研发、洁净煤技术开发与应用、二氧化碳捕获和封存技术(CCS)等发展低碳经济的关键技术领域；其二,在投资主体的选择上,低碳背景下我国对外直接投资宜使用大型企业集团为主、中小企业随后跟进的策略；其三,在投资方式的选择上,应灵活选择进入模式发展传统型行业和新兴型低碳产业,着重考虑跨国并购的投资方式。但在对外直接投资模式转变的过程中,我国低碳产业投资将面临着更多新风险,如碳排放许可的价格变化难量化的价格风险,低碳投资项目中的碳排放许可(限额)生产成本的预期不确定性的成本风险,及低碳投资项目中可产生的碳排放许可或配额结余的预期不确定性的数量风险。最后,从对接东道国碳排放标准、推动低碳技术寻求型对外投资、参与国际气候政策制定、控制低碳对外投资等方面提出推动对外投资模式转型的政策建议。
Long-term since, related theories on foreign investment in developed countries have been one of the hotspots in research of international economics. With the acceleration and deepening of economic globalization and China's reform, more and more Chinese enterprises also began to allocate resources from the global perspective. China's outward direct investment will be on the fast lane. However, in recent years, climate warming seriously threats the sustainable development of human. Responding to climate change, policies on low carbon constraints are appearing, which change the market environment of multinational companies to some extent and impact the original pattern, direction and scope of international capital flows. In the new situation, how to change the thinking, catch opportunity of low-carbon economy and improve the outward direct investment mode of China's enterprises have become new ideas for construction "resource-saving and environment-friendly" society. Compared with developed countries, China obviouly lacks the vital reservation of low carbon technologies and the overall development level is relatively low. Although the clean development mechanism (CDM) brings us some spillover of technologies for energy conservation and emission reduction, the commercialization of the alienated core technology is too high and spillover from foreign direct investment still can't solve China's carbon emissions. In order to get ahead and take advantages under the low carbon economy and international competition, it is very important for us to be closely around clean technology innovation and to realize transformation of China's outward investment.
This paper firstly discusses about evolutional trend of multinational investment as the breakthrough point and uses relevant data of outward direct investment and carbon emissions, then briefly reviews the developing track of the multinational investment under low-carbon economy, finally expounds dynamic evolution of multinational investment from the transferring carbon pollution to investing clean technolog. Under above-mentioned background, this paper summarizes the current pattern of China's outward direct investment.From such three perspectives as standards of carbon emission, burden of carbon tax and environmental information openness system of the host countries, this paper also investigates the coupling degree between China's outward investment mode and low-carbon economy. The research shows that it is difficult to couple between China's outward investment industries and climate policy environment because the industries are of high-energy consumption, high emissions and the potential risks. At the same time, this article compares our outward investment in traditional energy fields such as petroleum, natural gas with the international trend of new energy investment, also analyzes the limitation and supervision on ourward investment in traditional energy, and explores the main reasons for the impact of our current ourward investment.
On the basis of analyzing the real gap between China's outward investment mode and developed countries'under the low carbon economy, the paper constructs a mathematical analyzing framework including opportunity cost of carbon trading, preference for cleaning products, social welfare benefits and low carbon outward investment, and then further researchs the theories on transformation of China's outward investment mode.The paper also calculates enterprises'carbon abatement cost by enterprises'opportunity cost of carbon trading and success probability of R&D on low carbon assumed low-carbon constraint condition.From heterogeneous market of preferences for product environmental quality, it comparatively analyzes the probability and extent of profit beween the multinationas which care about low-carbon technology R&D and those don't care. Given the technology spillover rate and emission pricing in host countries, this article constructs the model to calculate extra social benefit that enterprises will have got from technology innovation for emissions reduction, which is higher than the income. Analysis shows that cost reduction will improve emissions reduction when prices are constant, and more technology innovation will result in the increase of social welfare under exogenous environmental policies.
This paper analyzes the dynamic mechanism for transformation of our outward investment from propectives of and subjective impetus.From the perspective of objective impetus, supported by classical regulation-controlling theories, it predicts changing trend of international climate policies through establishing a Moldina two-stage dynamic game model. The result of game shows that the enterprises that have comparative advantages in carbon dioxide emissions will use offensively-deterred strategies to promote transformation of carbon convention model, induce regulation party to use rigid carbon convention mode, and force disadvantageous enterprises to greatly increase liabilities of emissions reduction, finally disadvantageous enterprises might loss and withdraw from the market because of the high standards. China's international enterprises with low level of low-carbon technology are difficult to relieve pollution by autonomous R&D, and China's development of new energy is not large enough.Under the circumstances, changing mode of China's outward direct investment is the pratical way to deal with the increasingly-harsh international climate policies. Subjective impetus is reflected in potential gains from China's new outward investment and the internal demand for domestic carbon emissions reductions. On one hand, China's new outward investment can help get low-carbon technology, avoid barriers of carbon tariff and gain the potential gains from innovative compensation under low-carbon economy; On the other hand, domestic situation is not optimistic:regression analysis on China's domestic carbon kuznets curve of carbon emissions through empirical research shows that China's environment level measured by carbon dioxide is still to the left side of inflection point on CKC curve. The only way for solving the conflicts between economic growth in China and goals of carbon emission reduction is to exploit outward investment channel, and to develop low-carbon economy and seize industrial high-point.
Finally, based on the forementioned theoretical framework and empirical results, this paper puts forward paths for China's outward investment transformation and potential risks. The paths for China's outward direct investment under low-carbon economy are mainly as follows:first, in the choice of investment industry, China may refer to the benchmarks of energy-security, seeking-for technology-learning and seeking-for market, so China should focus on such key technologies for low-carbon economy as R&D for new-energy technology, development and application of clean-coal technology, carbon capture and storage technology (CCS); Second, in the choice of the investment subject, we'd better choose the strategies under the low-carbon economy,in which giving priority to large enterprise groups, small and medium-sized enterprises then following up; Third, in the choice of the ways of investment,we should flexibly choose the entering pattern to develop both traditional and new low-carbon industries,greatly focusing on transnational merger. But in the changing process of outward investment patterns, China's low-carbon industry investment will face more new risks, such as the price risk carbon,i.e. it is difficult to quantify the price's change of carbon emissions permits;the cost risk, i.e.it is uncertain to predict the production cost of carbon emissions permits (limit) of the low-carbon investment project;the quantity risk,i.e. it is uncertain to predict the balance of carbon emissions permits or quotas produced in low-carbon investment projects. At last, the paper puts forward policy suggestions from such aspects as dovetailling carbon emissions standards in host country, promoting outward investment seeking for low-carbon technology, participating in policy-making of international climate, and controlling low-carbon outward investment.
引文
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