国际技术溢出对出口技术复杂度的影响研究
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摘要
出口技术复杂度这一概念的提出不仅是对国际贸易研究视角的开拓,而且也为研究当代国家贸易问题、一国的国际分工地位与国际竞争力提供了一个良好的分析工具。与此同时,在开放的经济条件下随着全球经济一体化不断深入发展,各国间的贸易与投资活动愈发频繁,知识、技术的国际溢出对一国经济增长与技术进步存在重要的影响。鉴于此,构建国际技术溢出对出口技术复杂度演进影响的理论分析框架,深入分析其对出口技术复杂度深化的影响机制,并就国际技术溢出对我国在外贸出口技术复杂度深化过程中遇到的困境提出相应的政策建议,不仅具有理论意义,更具有实践指导意义。为此本文在结合相关国际贸易理论的基础上,尝试构建国际技术溢出对出口复杂度演进影响的理论分析框架,并在框架分析的基础上以遵循客观经济事实为原则,从实证角度利用面板计量模型就国际技术溢出对出口复杂度演进的影响机理从跨国比较与我国国内跨区域比较的双维层面进行了探讨,最后将理论与实证分析的结论应用于中国如何提升出口技术复杂度水平的思考。
本文在引入企业异质性理论分析框架下,运用贸易扩张的二元边际分析,通过内生经济增长理论,将Melitz模型与LP模型相结合,从理论上阐述了国际技术溢出对出口技术复杂度的影响机理。运用联合国数据库以及国家统计局发布的1999—2009年中国、俄罗斯与16个OECD国家的数据,根据HS分类标准选取8类产业作为样本,结合Hausmann(2005)模型在跨国层面对出口技术复杂度进行了测度,并对各经济体的出口技术复杂度进行了对比。在考虑了中国各省区层面经济发展状况、出口规模的差异基础上,剔除加工贸易对测度结果的影响,借鉴修正的EXPY指数对中国省级层面的出口技术复杂度进行了分析。同时,从本国知识技术资本与国际技术溢出的角度,对跨国与省级层面的出口技术复杂度水平进行了绩效评价,构建了分析国际技术溢出对出口技术复杂度动态演进的面板数据模型。研究表明：
在跨国层面,中国就本文选取的8类产业其出口技术复杂度综合指数最高,说明此8类产业其出口贸易为中国的经济增长提供了巨大的动力；绩效研究结论表明,技术效率的提高促进了出口技术复杂度的深化,其中规模效率的增长起主要作用；实证分析验证了国际技术溢出对出口技术复杂度的变迁确实有影响,尤其是以ODI作为国际技术溢出渠道,对出口技术复杂度深化具有促进作用。国际经验论证了在当今国际市场上部分ODI是以寻求技术为目的的。
在中国省级层面,绩效研究证明了我国出口技术复杂度水平在考察期间的确得到了提升,而且是由于国内知识资本与国际技术溢出共同推动了对外贸易行业的技术进步而导致的对外贸易出口技术复杂度水平深化,但我国对国内知识资本与国际技术溢出的利用效率并不高。实证分析结果显示：我国的出口技术复杂度演变更多的依赖经济增长；我国吸收的国际技术溢出在非加工贸易出口部门的效应还没有完全显现出来,结合绩效研究的确说明我国对国际技术溢出的利用效率不高。从另一方面讲,我国吸收的国际技术溢出主要应用于加工贸易领域,大量的FDI流入我国其主要目的是为了寻求廉价的劳动力资源。
本文就中国的对外经济贸易发展现状研究发现,中国出口技术复杂度深化所面临的困境主要体现在缺乏长远的动态比较优势,固化了低水平的数量扩张型对外贸易结构。分析了困境产生的两个原因：出口导向型政策是该困境产生的宏观因素,而加工贸易比例过重则是其产生的根源,两者共同造成国际技术溢出渠道不畅,国际技术溢出的动态效率难以发挥出来。借鉴出口技术复杂度深化的国际经验,同时考虑我国吸收、利用国际技术溢出存在的问题,本文提出针对性的政策建议是：进一步融入产业内国际分工体系；鼓励我国技术寻求型对外投资的发展；加大对外商投资结构的导向力度。
The concept of export sophistication not only broadens the visual angle of research on international trade, but also provides a favorable research tool for research on contemporary international trade issues, a country's status in international division of labor and its international competitiveness. Under the circumstances of an open economy, with the continuous development of global economic integration, trade and investment across countries becomes more and more frequent, and the effect of international technology and knowledge spillovers to a country's economic development and technical progress become more and more profound. Therefore, it is with both theoretical significance and practical significance to establish a theoretical analytical framework of the influence of international technological overflow on export technological sophistication evolution, to deeply analyze its influencing mechanism on the increase of export technological sophistication, and to present some policy suggestions on dealing with the predicament encountered in the process of promoting of our country's foreign trade technological sophistication through international technological overflow. For this reason, unifying the related theory, this article tries to establish a theoretical analytical framework of the influence of international technological overflow on export technological sophistication evolution, after that, using penal econometric model, form empirical perspective, probe into the influencing mechanism of international technological overflow on export technological sophistication evolution through cross-country comparison and cross-area comparison.
After introducing the theory of enterprise heterogeneity, using binary marginal analysis into trade expansion, through combining Melitz Model with LP Model with new theory of economic growth, this article theoretically elaborates the influencing mechanism of international technological overflow on export technological sophistication. Using United Nation Statistical Database and dates of China, Russian and16OECD countries from1999to2009released by China's National Bureau of Statistics, this article selects8commodities according to the first number of HS classification standard, measures the export technological sophistication on the cross-country level with the Hausmann Model (2005) and makes an comparison of the export sophistication among some economies. After considering the state of development of the provinces of China, the differences in export volume, avoiding the effect of processing trade on measure results, using emendated EXPY index for reference, this article analyzes the export sophistication on the provincial level of China. Also, this article makes a performance evaluation to export sophistication on the cross country and provincial level from the perspective of a country's knowledge, technology capital and international technology overflow, establishes a penal data model to analyze dynamic evolution of export technological sophistication along with international technological overflow. The study shows that:
On the cross-country level, with respect to the8commodities, China's export sophistication index is the highest. This illustrates that the8commodities this article selected provided immense impetus to the economic development of China; the conclusion of performance evaluation shows that the rise of export technological sophistication relay main on the rise of scale efficiency; empirical analyze proves the influence of international technological overflow on the change of export technological sophistication, particularly, with ODI as the channel of international technological overflow, it promotes the export technological sophistication rise. International experience demonstrates that in the present international market, some ODI are technology-seeking.
On the provincial level of China, performance evaluation proves that the export sophistication of our country is definitely improved during the research period, and the reason for this is that domestic knowledge capital and international technology overflow promote the technological progress of the foreign trade industry, which improved the export technological sophistication of foreign trade. However, the utilization efficiency of domestic knowledge capital and international technology overflow is not that high. Result of empirical analyze shows that the evolution of our country's export technological sophistication depends mainly on economic growth; the effect of the international technological overflow that China absorbed has not emerged in non-processing trade sectors. All of these prove that the utilization efficiency of international technology overflow is not that high. On the other hand, the international technological overflow that China absorbed is mainly used in processing trade field; the main purpose of FDI inflowing into China is for low-price labor resource.
After researching on the developing states of China's foreign trade, this article finds out that the improvement of China's export technological sophistication is in lack of long-term dynamic comparative advantage, and is fixed in the extensive quantity increase balance mode. Two reasons for this situation are also found out:export-oriented policy and big proportion of processing trade, both of which make the road of international technology overflow not so smooth, and the dynamic effect of international technology overflow hard to realize. Through absorbing international experience of improving technology sophistication and considering the problems of in absorbing and utilizing international technology overflow, this article put forward three suggestions:further integrating in international industrial division system; encouraging the development of technology-seeking ODI; reinforce industry guide to foreign investment.
本文在引入企业异质性理论分析框架下,运用贸易扩张的二元边际分析,通过内生经济增长理论,将Melitz模型与LP模型相结合,从理论上阐述了国际技术溢出对出口技术复杂度的影响机理。运用联合国数据库以及国家统计局发布的1999—2009年中国、俄罗斯与16个OECD国家的数据,根据HS分类标准选取8类产业作为样本,结合Hausmann(2005)模型在跨国层面对出口技术复杂度进行了测度,并对各经济体的出口技术复杂度进行了对比。在考虑了中国各省区层面经济发展状况、出口规模的差异基础上,剔除加工贸易对测度结果的影响,借鉴修正的EXPY指数对中国省级层面的出口技术复杂度进行了分析。同时,从本国知识技术资本与国际技术溢出的角度,对跨国与省级层面的出口技术复杂度水平进行了绩效评价,构建了分析国际技术溢出对出口技术复杂度动态演进的面板数据模型。研究表明：
在跨国层面,中国就本文选取的8类产业其出口技术复杂度综合指数最高,说明此8类产业其出口贸易为中国的经济增长提供了巨大的动力；绩效研究结论表明,技术效率的提高促进了出口技术复杂度的深化,其中规模效率的增长起主要作用；实证分析验证了国际技术溢出对出口技术复杂度的变迁确实有影响,尤其是以ODI作为国际技术溢出渠道,对出口技术复杂度深化具有促进作用。国际经验论证了在当今国际市场上部分ODI是以寻求技术为目的的。
在中国省级层面,绩效研究证明了我国出口技术复杂度水平在考察期间的确得到了提升,而且是由于国内知识资本与国际技术溢出共同推动了对外贸易行业的技术进步而导致的对外贸易出口技术复杂度水平深化,但我国对国内知识资本与国际技术溢出的利用效率并不高。实证分析结果显示：我国的出口技术复杂度演变更多的依赖经济增长；我国吸收的国际技术溢出在非加工贸易出口部门的效应还没有完全显现出来,结合绩效研究的确说明我国对国际技术溢出的利用效率不高。从另一方面讲,我国吸收的国际技术溢出主要应用于加工贸易领域,大量的FDI流入我国其主要目的是为了寻求廉价的劳动力资源。
本文就中国的对外经济贸易发展现状研究发现,中国出口技术复杂度深化所面临的困境主要体现在缺乏长远的动态比较优势,固化了低水平的数量扩张型对外贸易结构。分析了困境产生的两个原因：出口导向型政策是该困境产生的宏观因素,而加工贸易比例过重则是其产生的根源,两者共同造成国际技术溢出渠道不畅,国际技术溢出的动态效率难以发挥出来。借鉴出口技术复杂度深化的国际经验,同时考虑我国吸收、利用国际技术溢出存在的问题,本文提出针对性的政策建议是：进一步融入产业内国际分工体系；鼓励我国技术寻求型对外投资的发展；加大对外商投资结构的导向力度。
The concept of export sophistication not only broadens the visual angle of research on international trade, but also provides a favorable research tool for research on contemporary international trade issues, a country's status in international division of labor and its international competitiveness. Under the circumstances of an open economy, with the continuous development of global economic integration, trade and investment across countries becomes more and more frequent, and the effect of international technology and knowledge spillovers to a country's economic development and technical progress become more and more profound. Therefore, it is with both theoretical significance and practical significance to establish a theoretical analytical framework of the influence of international technological overflow on export technological sophistication evolution, to deeply analyze its influencing mechanism on the increase of export technological sophistication, and to present some policy suggestions on dealing with the predicament encountered in the process of promoting of our country's foreign trade technological sophistication through international technological overflow. For this reason, unifying the related theory, this article tries to establish a theoretical analytical framework of the influence of international technological overflow on export technological sophistication evolution, after that, using penal econometric model, form empirical perspective, probe into the influencing mechanism of international technological overflow on export technological sophistication evolution through cross-country comparison and cross-area comparison.
After introducing the theory of enterprise heterogeneity, using binary marginal analysis into trade expansion, through combining Melitz Model with LP Model with new theory of economic growth, this article theoretically elaborates the influencing mechanism of international technological overflow on export technological sophistication. Using United Nation Statistical Database and dates of China, Russian and16OECD countries from1999to2009released by China's National Bureau of Statistics, this article selects8commodities according to the first number of HS classification standard, measures the export technological sophistication on the cross-country level with the Hausmann Model (2005) and makes an comparison of the export sophistication among some economies. After considering the state of development of the provinces of China, the differences in export volume, avoiding the effect of processing trade on measure results, using emendated EXPY index for reference, this article analyzes the export sophistication on the provincial level of China. Also, this article makes a performance evaluation to export sophistication on the cross country and provincial level from the perspective of a country's knowledge, technology capital and international technology overflow, establishes a penal data model to analyze dynamic evolution of export technological sophistication along with international technological overflow. The study shows that:
On the cross-country level, with respect to the8commodities, China's export sophistication index is the highest. This illustrates that the8commodities this article selected provided immense impetus to the economic development of China; the conclusion of performance evaluation shows that the rise of export technological sophistication relay main on the rise of scale efficiency; empirical analyze proves the influence of international technological overflow on the change of export technological sophistication, particularly, with ODI as the channel of international technological overflow, it promotes the export technological sophistication rise. International experience demonstrates that in the present international market, some ODI are technology-seeking.
On the provincial level of China, performance evaluation proves that the export sophistication of our country is definitely improved during the research period, and the reason for this is that domestic knowledge capital and international technology overflow promote the technological progress of the foreign trade industry, which improved the export technological sophistication of foreign trade. However, the utilization efficiency of domestic knowledge capital and international technology overflow is not that high. Result of empirical analyze shows that the evolution of our country's export technological sophistication depends mainly on economic growth; the effect of the international technological overflow that China absorbed has not emerged in non-processing trade sectors. All of these prove that the utilization efficiency of international technology overflow is not that high. On the other hand, the international technological overflow that China absorbed is mainly used in processing trade field; the main purpose of FDI inflowing into China is for low-price labor resource.
After researching on the developing states of China's foreign trade, this article finds out that the improvement of China's export technological sophistication is in lack of long-term dynamic comparative advantage, and is fixed in the extensive quantity increase balance mode. Two reasons for this situation are also found out:export-oriented policy and big proportion of processing trade, both of which make the road of international technology overflow not so smooth, and the dynamic effect of international technology overflow hard to realize. Through absorbing international experience of improving technology sophistication and considering the problems of in absorbing and utilizing international technology overflow, this article put forward three suggestions:further integrating in international industrial division system; encouraging the development of technology-seeking ODI; reinforce industry guide to foreign investment.
引文
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