中国企业对外直接投资风险影响因素及控制策略研究
摘要
改革开放30多年来,中国企业对外直接投资的区域和范围不断扩大,在全球对外直接投资流量和存量中所占比例也越来越高,对中国经济的持续快速发展以及中国企业国际竞争力的逐渐提高产生了巨大的推动作用。中国企业像华为、海尔、联想等通过绿地投资、收购兼并以及组建战略联盟等方式进行对外直接投资,取得了较为理想的效果。
然而,随着对外直接投资规模的急剧扩大和海外资产份额的快速提升,中国企业对外直接投资的风险也日益增大。尤其是近年来,随着国际政治经济形势动荡的加剧,如何加强对外直接投资的风险控制已成为中国企业提高海外投资绩效的重中之重。
本文的主旨在于通过分析中国企业对外直接投资风险的影响因素,提出相应的风险控制策略。本文包括八部分的内容,先论证了论文选题的依据、理论价值和现实意义,并对对外直接投资风险控制等相关概念进行了界定；然后在对国内外企业对外直接投资风险的相关理论文献进行了系统回顾的基础上,从宏观层面、行业层面和特定企业层面探讨了对外直接投资风险的影响因素；本文又结合中国企业对外直接投资的过程结构体系分析了对外直接投资风险耦合效应的产生;随后论文通过操作性变量的定义建立了中国企业对外直接投资风险研究的实证体系并进行了实证分析；最后针对中国企业在对外直接投资中可能会面临的各种风险,从国家层面和企业层面两个角度入手,提出了科学可靠的对策和建议。
通过相关的论述和实证分析,得出本研究的主要结论：
1、我国企业对外直接投资风险可以分为外源性风险、内生性风险和过程性风险。外源性风险主要受政治因素、经济因素、社会因素和市场因素的影响；内生性风险主要受企业治理结构因素、管理因素和网络因素的影响；而过程性风险主要来源于投资的过程结构体系。
2、基于样本企业的实证研究,提出了现阶段我国企业对外直接投资风险的控制策略,主要包括外源性风险控制策略、内生性风险控制策略和过程性风险控制策略等三种。
3、对外直接投资风险的环境影响因素与过程结构体系具有显著相关性,二者对我国企业对外直接投资风险产生耦合作用,在实证中可以通过主成分法提炼。
4、我国企业对外直接投资风险具有时间动态特性,上一年度的风险对下一年度的风险具有显著相关影响。
本研究的创新之处在于：
1、提出了中国企业对外直接投资风险的环境影响因素和过程结构体系,有助于辨析对外直接投资风险的主要来源；
2、提出了中国企业对外直接投资风险的耦合效应,通过分析耦合效应的产生过程,有助于深化对外直接投资领域的风险识别；
3、提出了中国企业对外直接投资风险的控制策略,有助于新形势下尤其是2008年全球金融危机后我国企业对外直接投资的风险控制。
Since reform and opening-up began at more than30years ago, the area and range of Chinese enterprise foreign direct investment continues expanding, the proportion of Chinese FDI flows and stocks to global FDI is becoming higher. It made significant promoting role in the continuous and rapid development of Chinese economy and the rise of Chinese enterprise international competition ability. Chinese enterprises such as Huawei, Haier and Lenovo obtained a more ideal effect through FDI, greenfield investment, merger and acquisition and strategic alliance mode.
However, with the rapid enlargement of the scale of foreign direct investment and the rapid promotion of overseas equity share, Chinese enterprises' foreign direct investment risk also increases increasingly. Especially in recent years, along with the international political and economic situation of turmoil, how to strengthen the foreign direct investment risk control has become China's enterprises' most important work to improve the performance of foreign direct investment.
The purpose of this thesis is based on the analysis of Chinese enterprises foreign direct investment risk influence factors, proposes the corresponding risk control tactics.
This paper consists of eight parts:
This paper first discusses research basis, the theoretical value and practical significance, and define the concepts the foreign direct investment risk and risk control. On the basis of literature review and summary, this chapter discusses the foreign direct investment influence factors from macro level, industry level, and Specific enterprise level. Then discusses the coupling risk of FDI considering the process system of foreign direct investment. And then under the definition of Operating variables, it builds Chinese enterprises foreign direct investment risk research system and makes empirical analysis. Then in the light of a variety of risks may appear in the overseas investment, put forward some feasible suggestion from two angles:the national level and enterprise level.
Through the discussion, this paper draws the main conclusions:
Foreign direct investment risk can be divided into exogenous risk, endogenous risk and process risk. Exogenous risk is mainly affected by political factors, economic factors, social factors and market factors; endogenous risk is mainly affected by the corporate governance factor, management factor and network factors; and process risk main origin in course of investment structure system.
Based on a sample of enterprises empirical study, proposed the present stage Chinese enterprise foreign direct investment risk control strategies, including exogenous risk control tactics, internal risk control tactics and process risk control tactics, and etc.
Foreign direct investment risk environmental factors and processes of structure has significant correlation, they make coupling effect to the foreign direct investment of Chinese enterprises risk, in empirical analysis they can be extracted through principal component analysis.
Chinese Enterprises'foreign direct investment is dynamic, an annual risk makes a significant impact for next year's risk.
The innovation of this study lies in:
Put forward environmental impact factors and course structure system of Chinese enterprises'foreign direct investment risk, contributes to the analysis of the main sources of foreign direct investment risk.
Put forward Chinese enterprises'foreign direct investment risk through the analysis of coupling effect, and the generation process, it helps to deepen the foreign direct investment risk identification.
Put forward Chinese's'enterprise foreign direct investment risk control tactics, it contributes to Chinese's'enterprise foreign direct investment risk control, especially after the global financial crisis in2008.
然而,随着对外直接投资规模的急剧扩大和海外资产份额的快速提升,中国企业对外直接投资的风险也日益增大。尤其是近年来,随着国际政治经济形势动荡的加剧,如何加强对外直接投资的风险控制已成为中国企业提高海外投资绩效的重中之重。
本文的主旨在于通过分析中国企业对外直接投资风险的影响因素,提出相应的风险控制策略。本文包括八部分的内容,先论证了论文选题的依据、理论价值和现实意义,并对对外直接投资风险控制等相关概念进行了界定；然后在对国内外企业对外直接投资风险的相关理论文献进行了系统回顾的基础上,从宏观层面、行业层面和特定企业层面探讨了对外直接投资风险的影响因素；本文又结合中国企业对外直接投资的过程结构体系分析了对外直接投资风险耦合效应的产生;随后论文通过操作性变量的定义建立了中国企业对外直接投资风险研究的实证体系并进行了实证分析；最后针对中国企业在对外直接投资中可能会面临的各种风险,从国家层面和企业层面两个角度入手,提出了科学可靠的对策和建议。
通过相关的论述和实证分析,得出本研究的主要结论：
1、我国企业对外直接投资风险可以分为外源性风险、内生性风险和过程性风险。外源性风险主要受政治因素、经济因素、社会因素和市场因素的影响；内生性风险主要受企业治理结构因素、管理因素和网络因素的影响；而过程性风险主要来源于投资的过程结构体系。
2、基于样本企业的实证研究,提出了现阶段我国企业对外直接投资风险的控制策略,主要包括外源性风险控制策略、内生性风险控制策略和过程性风险控制策略等三种。
3、对外直接投资风险的环境影响因素与过程结构体系具有显著相关性,二者对我国企业对外直接投资风险产生耦合作用,在实证中可以通过主成分法提炼。
4、我国企业对外直接投资风险具有时间动态特性,上一年度的风险对下一年度的风险具有显著相关影响。
本研究的创新之处在于：
1、提出了中国企业对外直接投资风险的环境影响因素和过程结构体系,有助于辨析对外直接投资风险的主要来源；
2、提出了中国企业对外直接投资风险的耦合效应,通过分析耦合效应的产生过程,有助于深化对外直接投资领域的风险识别；
3、提出了中国企业对外直接投资风险的控制策略,有助于新形势下尤其是2008年全球金融危机后我国企业对外直接投资的风险控制。
Since reform and opening-up began at more than30years ago, the area and range of Chinese enterprise foreign direct investment continues expanding, the proportion of Chinese FDI flows and stocks to global FDI is becoming higher. It made significant promoting role in the continuous and rapid development of Chinese economy and the rise of Chinese enterprise international competition ability. Chinese enterprises such as Huawei, Haier and Lenovo obtained a more ideal effect through FDI, greenfield investment, merger and acquisition and strategic alliance mode.
However, with the rapid enlargement of the scale of foreign direct investment and the rapid promotion of overseas equity share, Chinese enterprises' foreign direct investment risk also increases increasingly. Especially in recent years, along with the international political and economic situation of turmoil, how to strengthen the foreign direct investment risk control has become China's enterprises' most important work to improve the performance of foreign direct investment.
The purpose of this thesis is based on the analysis of Chinese enterprises foreign direct investment risk influence factors, proposes the corresponding risk control tactics.
This paper consists of eight parts:
This paper first discusses research basis, the theoretical value and practical significance, and define the concepts the foreign direct investment risk and risk control. On the basis of literature review and summary, this chapter discusses the foreign direct investment influence factors from macro level, industry level, and Specific enterprise level. Then discusses the coupling risk of FDI considering the process system of foreign direct investment. And then under the definition of Operating variables, it builds Chinese enterprises foreign direct investment risk research system and makes empirical analysis. Then in the light of a variety of risks may appear in the overseas investment, put forward some feasible suggestion from two angles:the national level and enterprise level.
Through the discussion, this paper draws the main conclusions:
Foreign direct investment risk can be divided into exogenous risk, endogenous risk and process risk. Exogenous risk is mainly affected by political factors, economic factors, social factors and market factors; endogenous risk is mainly affected by the corporate governance factor, management factor and network factors; and process risk main origin in course of investment structure system.
Based on a sample of enterprises empirical study, proposed the present stage Chinese enterprise foreign direct investment risk control strategies, including exogenous risk control tactics, internal risk control tactics and process risk control tactics, and etc.
Foreign direct investment risk environmental factors and processes of structure has significant correlation, they make coupling effect to the foreign direct investment of Chinese enterprises risk, in empirical analysis they can be extracted through principal component analysis.
Chinese Enterprises'foreign direct investment is dynamic, an annual risk makes a significant impact for next year's risk.
The innovation of this study lies in:
Put forward environmental impact factors and course structure system of Chinese enterprises'foreign direct investment risk, contributes to the analysis of the main sources of foreign direct investment risk.
Put forward Chinese enterprises'foreign direct investment risk through the analysis of coupling effect, and the generation process, it helps to deepen the foreign direct investment risk identification.
Put forward Chinese's'enterprise foreign direct investment risk control tactics, it contributes to Chinese's'enterprise foreign direct investment risk control, especially after the global financial crisis in2008.
引文
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①于明言,国际金融危机背景下的中国对外直接投资,《开放导报》,2010年第2期。
①张荣楠,国家信息中心经济预测部世界经济研究室副研究员,http://sicmonan.blog.163.com/blog/static/13765299820118553534178/?ncwFollowBlog
②中国前驻伊朗、阿联酋、荷兰大使华黎明,华夏时报,http://finance.sina.com.cn/china/hgjj/20120211/081311358170.shtml
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