中国经济开放与环境污染的关系研究
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摘要
改革开放和加入世贸组织,使中国经济开放水平得到显著提升增长潜力得到了极大挖掘,促使了中国经济的持续高速增长。但是,这也带来了巨大的环境污染问题。目前,经济开放带来的国内外要素价格均等化趋势逐渐显露出来,高污染和高增长的趋势有可能因此而改变。过去的研究很少在要素价格均等化情况下系统的分析经济开放与环境污染的关系,本文在前人研究的基础上,从理论与实证两个方面分析经济开放度与环境污染的关系对外贸易、外商直接投资与环境污染的关系,以及经济开放引致的技术进步与环境污染的关系,。从而寻找经济开放条件下协调经济增长与环境污染关系的途径。
本文认为,持续深入的经济开放将促使要素价格均等化和经济增长动力改变,因而经济开放将会促使经济增长与环境污染呈现为EKC关系,即经济开放初期经济增长倾向于刺激环境污染,而经济开放后期经济增长则可能倾向于缓解环境污染。经济增长动力与环境污染的理论与经验关系体现为,以物质资本积累为主要增长动力的发展模式,使得环境污染增加,而以人力资本积累为主要增长动力的发展模式,将使得环境污染下降。中国的整体数据表明,中国还处于经济开放的初期,经济增长处于刺激环境污染的阶段。
进口贸易和出口贸易对环境污染的影响机制和结果均有不同表现。出口贸易的环境污染影响可以分为规模效应、结构效应和技术效应。要素价格变化和要素禀赋升级是整体环境污染效应呈倒“U”变化的重要原因。当前,出口贸易的规模效应刺激环境污染,结构效应缓解环境污染,而技术效应还不能显著影响环境污染。进口最终产品对环境污染的影响主要体现为生产替代效应、消费污染效应、技术效应等方面。进口中间产品对环境污染的影响也可以分为规模效应、结构效应、技术效应。目前,进口贸易对环境污染的抑制作用也不够突出,仅东部地区进口贸易一定程度上抑制了环境污染。
外商直接投资与环境污染的关系方面,文章认为,外商直接投资可以透过人力资本对环境污染产生作用。通过中国和世界银行WDI多国数据的实证分析表明,较高的人力资本水平对于协调外商直接投资、经济增长、环境污染具有重要作用。这进一步凸显了劳动力要素价格均等化趋势下,提高人力资本积累的重要性。
经济开放能够促进技术进步,而经济开放带来的技术进步与环境污染的关系在不同阶段有不同表现,在当前阶段的要素禀赋和比较优势背景下,技术进步对环境污染还不能起到明显控制的作用。当经济开放促使新的要素禀赋和比较优势形成之后,技术进步可能才体现出显著的污染控制效应。污染性产业比较优势消失后,并不一定能够出现清洁产业的技术进步,技术进步选择清洁生产的方向是有条件的,这包括人才条件和技术条件,其中的人才条件需要依靠人力资本积累。
通观全文可以发现,经济开放背景下,人力资本可以通过几个方面来缓解环境污染,例如有利于改善经济增长动力；有利于技术进步选择清洁生产技术方向；有利于协调外商直接投资、经济增长、环境污染等,并且能够促进经济增长；因而人力资本积累具有非常重要的意义。因此,从经济开放、经济增长、环境污染协调的角度看,要素禀赋结构应升级为以人力资本为主。另外,结构调整、技术进步和环境管理对环境污染控制也具有非常积极的一面。
对此,本文提出了如下一些政策建议,要坚定不移的实施经济开放政策；采取切实措施促进技术进步；必须不断的重视经济结构调整；促进人力资本积累,尤其是发展高等教育；动态地扶持要素禀赋升级、应协调进出口贸易,主要是扩大进口贸易；要建立一套引进FDI的甄别机制；此外,还要继续加强环境立法与环境执法,继续加强政府对环境的管理,改变官员政绩观,等等。
With Reform and opening up, and accession to the WTO, China's economic openness level and growth potential have been enhanced significantly. These factors have prompted China's economy sustained rapid growth. However, when we saw the rapid economic growth, but also should recognize the environmental pollution problems following with the economic openness. Now, the trend of factor price equalization revealed gradually, so the rapid growth trend of environmental pollution and economy may be changed. Past few studies systematically related to the relationship between economic openness and environmental pollution. The paper is fully on the basis of previous researches, and is from the angle both theoretical and empirical analysis. This study mainly includes the relationship between economic openness and environmental pollution, the relationship between environmental pollution and technological progress arising from economic openness, the relationship between foreign trade and environmental pollution, as well as the relationship between foreign direct investment and environmental pollution. So we can find the way of coordination of economic growth and environmental pollution in condition of open economy.
This paper believes that due to changes of factor price equalization and changes of economic growth engine, economic openness will lead to economic growth and environmental pollution present for the EKC relationship. It means in the initial period of economic openness, economic growth trends to increase environmental pollution, and in the later period of economic openness, economic growth trends to decrease environmental pollution. Economic openness is not the higher the better; it should be a certain economic indicator needed control. The relationship between economic growth engine and environmental pollution is that, environmental pollution increase when the model of economic growth engine dependent on physical capital accumulation mainly, and environmental pollution decrease when the model of economic growth engine dependent on human capital accumulation mainly. Chinese data indicates that China is in the initial period of economic openness, economic growth trending to increase environmental pollution.
The mechanisms and the results of import trade and export trade to exert influences on environmental pollution are different. Exports' influence on environmental pollution can be divided into the scale effect, structure effect and technical effect. At present, the scale effect of the export trade stimulates environmental pollution, and structural effect eases environmental pollution, technical effect did not significantly influence on environment pollution. Imports of final products exert influences on environmental pollution are mainly due to production substitution effect, consumption pollution effect, technical effect. Imports of intermediate products exert influences on environmental pollution are also mainly due to scale effect, structural effect, technology effect. At present, import trade's inhibition with the environmental pollution is not prominent, and it only inhibited the environmental pollution in the eastern part of China.
The article believes that foreign direct investment can have an effect on environmental pollution through human capital. Human capital plays an important role on the coordination of foreign direct investment, economic growth, and environmental pollution. So, on the background of factor price equalization, accelerates human capital accumulation is important.
Economic openness can promote technological progress, the relationship between environmental pollution and technological progress arising from economic openness has different performance in the different stages. In the current stage, technological progress can not play the role of control environmental pollution. After economic openness Continued in-depth, the comparative advantages of the polluting industries will disappearance, but technological progress may not necessarily come up with cleaning industry. Technological progress to select the direction of cleaner production is conditional, which include the talent base and technology base. Talent base mainly includes human capital.
Due to the paper we can find the accumulation of human capital has a great significance. Human capital can alleviate environmental pollution through several ways, For example, accumulation of human capital is good for improve economic growth engine, is good for technological progress to select the direction of cleaner production, is good for the coordination between foreign direct investment and environmental pollution, and has the ability to promote economic growth. In addition, restructuring, technological progress and environmental management, also have positive side for environmental pollution control.
At last, this paper presents some policy recommendations. Our country must unswervingly implement the open policies and take effective measures to promote technological progress, dynamically support factor endowments upgrade, and must pay attention to the economic structural adjustment continually. Our country also should promote human capital accumulation, especially promote the development of higher education. We should coordinate the export and import trade, mainly to expand the import trade. And then should establish a set of screening mechanism with introduction of FDI. In addition, we should continue to strengthen environmental legislation and environmental law enforcement, continue to strengthen the government management with the environment, changing the concept of officials' view on performance, and so on.
本文认为,持续深入的经济开放将促使要素价格均等化和经济增长动力改变,因而经济开放将会促使经济增长与环境污染呈现为EKC关系,即经济开放初期经济增长倾向于刺激环境污染,而经济开放后期经济增长则可能倾向于缓解环境污染。经济增长动力与环境污染的理论与经验关系体现为,以物质资本积累为主要增长动力的发展模式,使得环境污染增加,而以人力资本积累为主要增长动力的发展模式,将使得环境污染下降。中国的整体数据表明,中国还处于经济开放的初期,经济增长处于刺激环境污染的阶段。
进口贸易和出口贸易对环境污染的影响机制和结果均有不同表现。出口贸易的环境污染影响可以分为规模效应、结构效应和技术效应。要素价格变化和要素禀赋升级是整体环境污染效应呈倒“U”变化的重要原因。当前,出口贸易的规模效应刺激环境污染,结构效应缓解环境污染,而技术效应还不能显著影响环境污染。进口最终产品对环境污染的影响主要体现为生产替代效应、消费污染效应、技术效应等方面。进口中间产品对环境污染的影响也可以分为规模效应、结构效应、技术效应。目前,进口贸易对环境污染的抑制作用也不够突出,仅东部地区进口贸易一定程度上抑制了环境污染。
外商直接投资与环境污染的关系方面,文章认为,外商直接投资可以透过人力资本对环境污染产生作用。通过中国和世界银行WDI多国数据的实证分析表明,较高的人力资本水平对于协调外商直接投资、经济增长、环境污染具有重要作用。这进一步凸显了劳动力要素价格均等化趋势下,提高人力资本积累的重要性。
经济开放能够促进技术进步,而经济开放带来的技术进步与环境污染的关系在不同阶段有不同表现,在当前阶段的要素禀赋和比较优势背景下,技术进步对环境污染还不能起到明显控制的作用。当经济开放促使新的要素禀赋和比较优势形成之后,技术进步可能才体现出显著的污染控制效应。污染性产业比较优势消失后,并不一定能够出现清洁产业的技术进步,技术进步选择清洁生产的方向是有条件的,这包括人才条件和技术条件,其中的人才条件需要依靠人力资本积累。
通观全文可以发现,经济开放背景下,人力资本可以通过几个方面来缓解环境污染,例如有利于改善经济增长动力；有利于技术进步选择清洁生产技术方向；有利于协调外商直接投资、经济增长、环境污染等,并且能够促进经济增长；因而人力资本积累具有非常重要的意义。因此,从经济开放、经济增长、环境污染协调的角度看,要素禀赋结构应升级为以人力资本为主。另外,结构调整、技术进步和环境管理对环境污染控制也具有非常积极的一面。
对此,本文提出了如下一些政策建议,要坚定不移的实施经济开放政策；采取切实措施促进技术进步；必须不断的重视经济结构调整；促进人力资本积累,尤其是发展高等教育；动态地扶持要素禀赋升级、应协调进出口贸易,主要是扩大进口贸易；要建立一套引进FDI的甄别机制；此外,还要继续加强环境立法与环境执法,继续加强政府对环境的管理,改变官员政绩观,等等。
With Reform and opening up, and accession to the WTO, China's economic openness level and growth potential have been enhanced significantly. These factors have prompted China's economy sustained rapid growth. However, when we saw the rapid economic growth, but also should recognize the environmental pollution problems following with the economic openness. Now, the trend of factor price equalization revealed gradually, so the rapid growth trend of environmental pollution and economy may be changed. Past few studies systematically related to the relationship between economic openness and environmental pollution. The paper is fully on the basis of previous researches, and is from the angle both theoretical and empirical analysis. This study mainly includes the relationship between economic openness and environmental pollution, the relationship between environmental pollution and technological progress arising from economic openness, the relationship between foreign trade and environmental pollution, as well as the relationship between foreign direct investment and environmental pollution. So we can find the way of coordination of economic growth and environmental pollution in condition of open economy.
This paper believes that due to changes of factor price equalization and changes of economic growth engine, economic openness will lead to economic growth and environmental pollution present for the EKC relationship. It means in the initial period of economic openness, economic growth trends to increase environmental pollution, and in the later period of economic openness, economic growth trends to decrease environmental pollution. Economic openness is not the higher the better; it should be a certain economic indicator needed control. The relationship between economic growth engine and environmental pollution is that, environmental pollution increase when the model of economic growth engine dependent on physical capital accumulation mainly, and environmental pollution decrease when the model of economic growth engine dependent on human capital accumulation mainly. Chinese data indicates that China is in the initial period of economic openness, economic growth trending to increase environmental pollution.
The mechanisms and the results of import trade and export trade to exert influences on environmental pollution are different. Exports' influence on environmental pollution can be divided into the scale effect, structure effect and technical effect. At present, the scale effect of the export trade stimulates environmental pollution, and structural effect eases environmental pollution, technical effect did not significantly influence on environment pollution. Imports of final products exert influences on environmental pollution are mainly due to production substitution effect, consumption pollution effect, technical effect. Imports of intermediate products exert influences on environmental pollution are also mainly due to scale effect, structural effect, technology effect. At present, import trade's inhibition with the environmental pollution is not prominent, and it only inhibited the environmental pollution in the eastern part of China.
The article believes that foreign direct investment can have an effect on environmental pollution through human capital. Human capital plays an important role on the coordination of foreign direct investment, economic growth, and environmental pollution. So, on the background of factor price equalization, accelerates human capital accumulation is important.
Economic openness can promote technological progress, the relationship between environmental pollution and technological progress arising from economic openness has different performance in the different stages. In the current stage, technological progress can not play the role of control environmental pollution. After economic openness Continued in-depth, the comparative advantages of the polluting industries will disappearance, but technological progress may not necessarily come up with cleaning industry. Technological progress to select the direction of cleaner production is conditional, which include the talent base and technology base. Talent base mainly includes human capital.
Due to the paper we can find the accumulation of human capital has a great significance. Human capital can alleviate environmental pollution through several ways, For example, accumulation of human capital is good for improve economic growth engine, is good for technological progress to select the direction of cleaner production, is good for the coordination between foreign direct investment and environmental pollution, and has the ability to promote economic growth. In addition, restructuring, technological progress and environmental management, also have positive side for environmental pollution control.
At last, this paper presents some policy recommendations. Our country must unswervingly implement the open policies and take effective measures to promote technological progress, dynamically support factor endowments upgrade, and must pay attention to the economic structural adjustment continually. Our country also should promote human capital accumulation, especially promote the development of higher education. We should coordinate the export and import trade, mainly to expand the import trade. And then should establish a set of screening mechanism with introduction of FDI. In addition, we should continue to strengthen environmental legislation and environmental law enforcement, continue to strengthen the government management with the environment, changing the concept of officials' view on performance, and so on.
引文
2部分内容由卿定文、程掀(2007)整理。详见卿定文、程掀：改革开放以来中国经济外向发展的进程、特点及趋势分析,经济问题探索,2007(4)。
3部分内容由卿定文、程掀(2007)整理。参见卿定文、程掀：改革开放以来中国经济外向发展的进程、特点及趋势分析,经济问题探索,2007(4)。
14更为洋细的分析过程已整理发表,可参见谭晶荣、温怀德：《长三角地区环境污染在经济增长中所处阶段的研究》[J], 《财贸经济》,2010.5。
29更为详细的分析过程已整理发表,可参见谭晶荣、温怀德：《长三角地区环境污染在经济增长中所处阶段的研究》[J],《财贸经济》,2010.5。
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14更为洋细的分析过程已整理发表,可参见谭晶荣、温怀德：《长三角地区环境污染在经济增长中所处阶段的研究》[J], 《财贸经济》,2010.5。
29更为详细的分析过程已整理发表,可参见谭晶荣、温怀德：《长三角地区环境污染在经济增长中所处阶段的研究》[J],《财贸经济》,2010.5。
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