河南省低碳发展水平时空差异与碳排放驱动力分析
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摘要
低碳经济最早由政府提出是2003年英国发表能源白皮书《我们能源的未来:创建低碳经济》,是作为应对气候变化及实现人类可持续发展而提出的,一经提出,便得到了社会各界的一致认同。
文章主要做了三方面的工作,第一是根据经济发展与碳排放的3条倒U型曲线来确定河南省碳排放的总体阶段,其中涉及到的指标主要有碳排放强度、人均碳排放量和碳排放总量;第二是采用碳生产率这一相对指标,运用标准差、变异系数、Theil指数测度河南省低碳发展水平时空差异,并将河南省低碳发展水平空间差异与其经济发展水平、工业化水平和城市化水平进行对比,总结河南省低碳发展水平时空差异并对河南省各地市低碳发展特征进行类型分区;第三是运用对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI)对河南省碳排放总量增长的驱动力进行分解分析,通过对Kaya公式的分解,将碳排放增长的驱动因素分解为能源结构、生产部门能源强度、经济结构、人均GDP、人口总量、运输线路单位长度能耗、交通工具平均运输线路、交通工具数量、居民生活能源强度、家庭平均年收入和家庭数量等11个因素,通过计算,得出河南省2005-2009年每一年驱动力的变化情况,并将11个驱动因素分为三类,即能源强度效应、结构效应和规模效应,分别分析各类效应在碳排放增长中的作用,得出河南省碳排放增长的主要的促进因子和抑制因子。
通过以上的分析,文章得出了如下结论:
第一,河南省低碳发展水平总体较低,目前河南省正处于低碳发展第二阶段,即碳排放强度下降而人均碳排放量与碳排放总量上升阶段,也就是说河南省目前属于高碳排放阶段。
第二,河南省低碳发展水平具有明显的空间规律性,呈现出一个东、南高,西、北低的基本格局。而这一基本格局与河南省经济发展水平、工业化水平和城镇化水平的空间分布格局是相反的,经济发展水平、工业化水平以及城镇化水平基本都呈现出北高南低、西高东低的基本格局。根据低碳发展水平和经济发展水平、工业化水平以及城镇化水平的关系,可以发现河南省存在三种典型类型:类型一,低碳经济区;类型二,高碳经济区;类型三,伪低碳经济区。
第三,通过标准差、变异系数和Theil指数对河南省低碳发展水平差异的测度发现,河南省低碳发展水平绝对差异在扩大而相对差异在缩小,这说明河南省各地区的低碳发展水平处于一个趋同的过程中,即低碳发展水平低的地区其提升的速度快于低碳发展水平高的地区。
第四,总体来看,2005-2009年河南省碳排放增长的正向驱动因素为人均GDP、人口总量、经济结构以及家庭年平均收入,其平均贡献率分别为:6.5%、6.1%、1.5%和0.9%;负向驱动因素有生产部门能源强度、能源结构和居民生活部门能源强度,其平均贡献率分别为:-5.7%、-1.6%和-0.8%。而在正向驱动因子中,主要有规模因子和经济结构因子。这反映出河南省碳排放增长一方面是由经济规模增长、人口规模增长尤其是城市人口规模增长所驱动的,另一方面是由重型化的经济结构所驱动的。主要的负向因子为能源强度因子和能源结构因子,说明能源利用效率的提高和能源结构的逐步改善对于河南省碳排放增长起到了一定的抑制作用。但是正向驱动因子的贡献率远大于负向抑制因子的贡献率,导致了河南省碳排放总量的持续、快速增长。
The low-carbon economy first was found in energy White Paper "Our energy future: creating a low carbon economy "published by British government in 2003, which was proposed to respond climate change and achieve sustainable development. Once made, it reached community consensus.
This paper mainly involves in three aspects. The first is based on economic development and three inverted U-curve of carbon emissions to determine the overall phase of carbon emissions in Henan Province, in which concludes indicators of carbon emissions intensity, per capita carbon emissions and carbon emissions; the second, by use of the relative indicator carbon productivity, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, Theil index to measure temporal and spatial differences of the level of low-carbon development in Henan Province, then compared it with the level of economic development, industrialization level and civilization level to summarize temporal and spatial differences of the level of low-carbon develop in Henan Province . At last, using low carbon development characteristics in each city to partition types; the third, the driving force of carbon emissions growth is analyzed by adopting LMDI. By decomposing Kaya formula, the drivers of carbon emissions growth are decomposed into energy mix, the production sector energy intensity, economic structure, the per capita GDP, total population, energy consumption per unit length of transportation routes, the average transport routes of transport, transport volume, the energy intensity of living, average household income and the number of families. The changes of driving force in each year during 2005-2009 are obtained by calculating. The eleven drivers can be classified into three categories: energy intensity effect, structural effect and scale effect. The functions of all the effects in carbon emissions are analyzed to obtain the major positive factors and negative factors of carbon emissions growth in Henan Province.
Through above analysis, this paper reaches the following conclusions:
First, the level of low carbon development is overall low in Henan Province and it is currently in the second development phase, namely the carbon emissions intensity declined while per capita carbon emissions and carbon emissions rose, that is Henan Province is in high carbon emissions stage currently.
Second, the level of low carbon development in Henan Province has significant spatial regularity, emerging a high level in east and south while a low level in west and north basic pattern, which is contrast to the spatial pattern that the level of economic development, industrialization level and urbanization level is high in north but low in south, high in west low in east in Henan Province. According to the relationship of the level of low carbon development with the level of economic development, industrialization level and urbanization level, three typical economic zones can be found in Henan Province, that is low-carbon economic zones, high- carbon economic zones and pseudo-low-carbon economic zones.
Third, the measure towards differences of the level of low carbon development by use of standard deviation, coefficient of variation, Theil index shows that the expansion of absolute difference and the narrow of relative difference in Henan Province. This illustrates that the level of low carbon development in each region has been in a process of convergence, namely the growth speed in low level of low carbon development areas are faster than those in high level of low carbon development areas.
Fourth, the overall look of Henan Province, positive drivers of per capita GDP, the total population, economic structure and average household income promote carbon emissions growth during 2005-2009 , the average contribution rate were: 6.5%、6.1%、1.5% and 0.9%; negative drivers are energy mix, the production sector Energy intensity and the energy intensity of living, the average contribution rate were: -5.7%、-1.6%,-0.8%. But among the positive factors, scale factor and factor of economic structure are crucial. This reflects that, on one hand, population growth especially urban population growth and growth of economic size cause the growth of carbon emissions, on the other hand, heavy economic structure also contributes to it. The major negative drivers were energy intensity and energy mix, indicating that the rise of energy efficiency and the improvement of energy mix take a negative role in the growth of carbon emissions. However, the contribution rate of positive elements is higher than that of negative elements, resulting in sustained and rapid growth of carbon emissions in Henan Province.
文章主要做了三方面的工作,第一是根据经济发展与碳排放的3条倒U型曲线来确定河南省碳排放的总体阶段,其中涉及到的指标主要有碳排放强度、人均碳排放量和碳排放总量;第二是采用碳生产率这一相对指标,运用标准差、变异系数、Theil指数测度河南省低碳发展水平时空差异,并将河南省低碳发展水平空间差异与其经济发展水平、工业化水平和城市化水平进行对比,总结河南省低碳发展水平时空差异并对河南省各地市低碳发展特征进行类型分区;第三是运用对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI)对河南省碳排放总量增长的驱动力进行分解分析,通过对Kaya公式的分解,将碳排放增长的驱动因素分解为能源结构、生产部门能源强度、经济结构、人均GDP、人口总量、运输线路单位长度能耗、交通工具平均运输线路、交通工具数量、居民生活能源强度、家庭平均年收入和家庭数量等11个因素,通过计算,得出河南省2005-2009年每一年驱动力的变化情况,并将11个驱动因素分为三类,即能源强度效应、结构效应和规模效应,分别分析各类效应在碳排放增长中的作用,得出河南省碳排放增长的主要的促进因子和抑制因子。
通过以上的分析,文章得出了如下结论:
第一,河南省低碳发展水平总体较低,目前河南省正处于低碳发展第二阶段,即碳排放强度下降而人均碳排放量与碳排放总量上升阶段,也就是说河南省目前属于高碳排放阶段。
第二,河南省低碳发展水平具有明显的空间规律性,呈现出一个东、南高,西、北低的基本格局。而这一基本格局与河南省经济发展水平、工业化水平和城镇化水平的空间分布格局是相反的,经济发展水平、工业化水平以及城镇化水平基本都呈现出北高南低、西高东低的基本格局。根据低碳发展水平和经济发展水平、工业化水平以及城镇化水平的关系,可以发现河南省存在三种典型类型:类型一,低碳经济区;类型二,高碳经济区;类型三,伪低碳经济区。
第三,通过标准差、变异系数和Theil指数对河南省低碳发展水平差异的测度发现,河南省低碳发展水平绝对差异在扩大而相对差异在缩小,这说明河南省各地区的低碳发展水平处于一个趋同的过程中,即低碳发展水平低的地区其提升的速度快于低碳发展水平高的地区。
第四,总体来看,2005-2009年河南省碳排放增长的正向驱动因素为人均GDP、人口总量、经济结构以及家庭年平均收入,其平均贡献率分别为:6.5%、6.1%、1.5%和0.9%;负向驱动因素有生产部门能源强度、能源结构和居民生活部门能源强度,其平均贡献率分别为:-5.7%、-1.6%和-0.8%。而在正向驱动因子中,主要有规模因子和经济结构因子。这反映出河南省碳排放增长一方面是由经济规模增长、人口规模增长尤其是城市人口规模增长所驱动的,另一方面是由重型化的经济结构所驱动的。主要的负向因子为能源强度因子和能源结构因子,说明能源利用效率的提高和能源结构的逐步改善对于河南省碳排放增长起到了一定的抑制作用。但是正向驱动因子的贡献率远大于负向抑制因子的贡献率,导致了河南省碳排放总量的持续、快速增长。
The low-carbon economy first was found in energy White Paper "Our energy future: creating a low carbon economy "published by British government in 2003, which was proposed to respond climate change and achieve sustainable development. Once made, it reached community consensus.
This paper mainly involves in three aspects. The first is based on economic development and three inverted U-curve of carbon emissions to determine the overall phase of carbon emissions in Henan Province, in which concludes indicators of carbon emissions intensity, per capita carbon emissions and carbon emissions; the second, by use of the relative indicator carbon productivity, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, Theil index to measure temporal and spatial differences of the level of low-carbon development in Henan Province, then compared it with the level of economic development, industrialization level and civilization level to summarize temporal and spatial differences of the level of low-carbon develop in Henan Province . At last, using low carbon development characteristics in each city to partition types; the third, the driving force of carbon emissions growth is analyzed by adopting LMDI. By decomposing Kaya formula, the drivers of carbon emissions growth are decomposed into energy mix, the production sector energy intensity, economic structure, the per capita GDP, total population, energy consumption per unit length of transportation routes, the average transport routes of transport, transport volume, the energy intensity of living, average household income and the number of families. The changes of driving force in each year during 2005-2009 are obtained by calculating. The eleven drivers can be classified into three categories: energy intensity effect, structural effect and scale effect. The functions of all the effects in carbon emissions are analyzed to obtain the major positive factors and negative factors of carbon emissions growth in Henan Province.
Through above analysis, this paper reaches the following conclusions:
First, the level of low carbon development is overall low in Henan Province and it is currently in the second development phase, namely the carbon emissions intensity declined while per capita carbon emissions and carbon emissions rose, that is Henan Province is in high carbon emissions stage currently.
Second, the level of low carbon development in Henan Province has significant spatial regularity, emerging a high level in east and south while a low level in west and north basic pattern, which is contrast to the spatial pattern that the level of economic development, industrialization level and urbanization level is high in north but low in south, high in west low in east in Henan Province. According to the relationship of the level of low carbon development with the level of economic development, industrialization level and urbanization level, three typical economic zones can be found in Henan Province, that is low-carbon economic zones, high- carbon economic zones and pseudo-low-carbon economic zones.
Third, the measure towards differences of the level of low carbon development by use of standard deviation, coefficient of variation, Theil index shows that the expansion of absolute difference and the narrow of relative difference in Henan Province. This illustrates that the level of low carbon development in each region has been in a process of convergence, namely the growth speed in low level of low carbon development areas are faster than those in high level of low carbon development areas.
Fourth, the overall look of Henan Province, positive drivers of per capita GDP, the total population, economic structure and average household income promote carbon emissions growth during 2005-2009 , the average contribution rate were: 6.5%、6.1%、1.5% and 0.9%; negative drivers are energy mix, the production sector Energy intensity and the energy intensity of living, the average contribution rate were: -5.7%、-1.6%,-0.8%. But among the positive factors, scale factor and factor of economic structure are crucial. This reflects that, on one hand, population growth especially urban population growth and growth of economic size cause the growth of carbon emissions, on the other hand, heavy economic structure also contributes to it. The major negative drivers were energy intensity and energy mix, indicating that the rise of energy efficiency and the improvement of energy mix take a negative role in the growth of carbon emissions. However, the contribution rate of positive elements is higher than that of negative elements, resulting in sustained and rapid growth of carbon emissions in Henan Province.
引文
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